Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 60% | 80% | 90% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 9 | 2 | 33 |
Displaying all predictions made by DaFranker. Filter by:
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The Topps Company will keep the Shadowrun license until at least July 1st, 2018 ( 90% confidence )
Created by DaFranker on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-07-02; judged right by DaFranker on 2018-07-02.
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Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-07-27; known on 2020-01-01.
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By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.
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Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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The STM will have the Du Collège escalator back in service in July 2015. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2015-07-08; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2015-08-10.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Activision or EA will announce they have obtained the Homeworld 3 IP by Feb 1 2014. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DaFranker on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2014-02-01.
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The header backgrounds on LessWrong's Main and Discussion sites will be matched within a month. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gokfar on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-02-05; judged wrong by gokfar on 2013-02-05.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.
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The Winter 2012 Singularity Institute fundraiser will max out its dollar-matching quota. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DaFranker on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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Plastic lightbulbs will be for sale by the start of 2014 http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20553143 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-12-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2014-01-01.
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The LHC will not make any new major discoveries until the end of 2012. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-01-05; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-05.
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My LessWrong karma will be over 2000 at the end of 2013 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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My LessWrong karma will be over 1000 at the end of 2013 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
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I will find Accel World interesting enough to watch the whole first season. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-20.
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Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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There will be an massive earthquake in the midde east next year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.