Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2020 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of March 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2019 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-04-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
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LBMA gold price reaches $1800/oz in 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.
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The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.
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The masked singer season 3 kitty is Maisie Williams ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-06-15.
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Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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Fully artificial kidney will be publicly available by 2042. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2042. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2042-01-01.
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Level 4 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2036. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2036-01-01.
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Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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2020 California summer crops will fail (<= 75% of [<=$28.5 billion] 2018 harvest income according to USDA). ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EnergyParade on 2020-02-26; known on 2021-04-15.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-12-17.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-04-02.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-03-10.
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Bitcoins thought to belong to Satoshi Nakamoto will be spent by 2075-04-05 (hacks don't count). ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-24; known on 2075-04-05.
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Space mining will be profitable before 2090, conditional on no existential catastrophe or win ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2090-01-01.
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A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.
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A fusion reactor will reach ignition before January 1st 2051, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2051-01-01.
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The fusion energy gain factor of a fusion reactor will reach a Q >= 1 before January 1st 2044, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2044-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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EIther Trump or Sanders will be president, and it won't change my life at all. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ntrueman on 2020-02-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 10/1 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-10-07.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-07-31.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 6/1 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-06-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 5/1 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-05-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-03-07.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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US to withdraw from Five Eyes, conditional on UK decision to incorporate Huawei technologies into their 5G telecom infrastructure ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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Conditional on Trump’s impeachment trial having at least one witness give testimony, Hunter Biden will give testimony ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
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Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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California has an earthquake with either one death or >$1B in damage in 2020 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
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Meta-prediction: I win my predictions bet with David Manheim https://twitter.com/peterhurford/status/1217795302821896193 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-05.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Democratic Nominee will be someone other than Biden, Sanders, Warren, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Yang, Klobuchar, or Bloomberg ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Mike Bloomberg is the US 2020 Democratic Party nominee ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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Amy Klobuchar is the US 2020 Democratic nominee ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-07-16.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.
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Scotland will announce an independence referendum in 2020 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Nicolás Maduro will be president of Venezuela on Dec. 31, 2020 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Trump meets with Kim in 2020 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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The states (+DC) adopting the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact have less combined electoral votes at the end of 2020 than they did in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.