Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by Malcolm Ocean. Filter by:
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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Marijuana will be legal in Canada by 2025. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2100. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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There will be a university/college-affiliated study on polyphasic sleep that begins within a year. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-07-22; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-07-23.
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At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
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At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
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At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Aug 1, 2014. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
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At least 3 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Oct 1, 2013. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-10-02.
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At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
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At least 5 people taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will be sleeping polyphasically as of Jan 1, 2014. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-03.
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I will complete a total of at least 24 blog posts in 2013. ( 95% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2014-01-02.
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I will make my fifth prediction within a week ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-07-29; judged right by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged right by phreeza on 2013-08-12.