Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Somebody gets themselves killed, augmented reality to blame ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
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Legislation introduced in the US to regulate Augmented Reality. ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Facebook caught labelling website as “fake news” for saying negative things about Facebook. ( 77% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2027-01-08.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Trump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-20.
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Lives saved from legalized stem cell treatment > Lives lost from military conflicts & flying killer robots / drones 2008-2016 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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new landlord accepts tenancy agreement ( 89% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-01-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
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Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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weev's attempt at resurrecting Luminiferous Aether Theory is actually a ploy to get someone to send his posse quantities of fissile material ( 14% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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CFIB comes out against mill rate increase in regina budget ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-02-28.
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Obamacare repeal on Jan 11/12, 2017 that occurred defeated before it goes into effect ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-07-01.
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First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by penten on 2017-06-01.
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>= 249 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12450ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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>= 246 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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application for renting the place on peter st turned down ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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North Korea will not experience any significant destabilization of its regime by the end of 2017 ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will not be able to find a place, and will be forced to move back to saskatoon ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-03-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Donald Trump administration names china Currency Manipulator ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
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Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
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Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.
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No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I get banned from GoodReads ( 75% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-09; known on 2021-01-10; judged unknown by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-02-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-15.
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I go on an OKC date next week ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-19.
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I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2017-01-21.
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“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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I will work for Unity Technologies within a year of graduation from University of Washington ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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I will suicide before 2021 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2039-01-01.
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A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2020-11-08.
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I will vote Democrat for the first time in my life in the 2024 US Presidential Election ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2017-01-05; known on 2024-11-08.
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Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.
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Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be fully deployed before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.
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Issa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-03.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.