Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
'1.8-inch and 3.5-inch [hard] disk drives will die' and 2.5 inch drives thrive in 2011 —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
-
'Microsoft buys Dassault Systemes in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
-
I will be raided or searched over my Silk Road article. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
-
“Yingluck Shinawatra to depart as Prime Minister of Thailand before 1 January 2012” -ipredict ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Greece will leave the European Union by 2012 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
NGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Be Replaced” ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Die” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“Same sex marriages to resume in California before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
The Notenki Memoirs will be available as an official commercial ebook in 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
A copyright takedown notice for The Notenki Memoirs will be sent to me in 2011. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Night 1: pill was Vitamin D. ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“Rupert Murdoch to announce departure as chairman of News Corporation before 2012” -ipredict ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Apple buys Time Warner Cable in 2011 —Robert X. Cringeley ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Yahoo will sell its Yahoo Japan shares in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime.” —Sergi Tudela ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Yahoo will sell its Chinese assets in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Readers' Choice for Time's 2011 Person of the Year: Anonymous —Seamus Condron ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Delicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. —Seamus Condron ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Final Fantasy XIV announced by Sony in 2011. —Game Informer ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level this year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
Groupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 —Seamus Condron ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
Kevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. —Seamus Condron ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
'I get a “real job”: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ('今日は、Windowsの表語を日本語に変わります'?) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.
-
'I qualify for the Magic Pro Tour: 1%' —CronoDAS ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-01.
-
The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
-
'A Computer Scientist will win a Nobel Prize.' —Lipton ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'Largest living animal filmed: a 76-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench. By coincidence, even larger creatures are then discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“Bashar al-Assad to no longer be President of Syria before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“Euro/US Dollar to close ON or ABOVE 1.4000 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.