Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 57% | 80% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
Displaying all predictions made by daniel74f. Filter by:
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
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Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
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Frente Amplio will win in the 2019 Uruguayan general elections. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-27; known on 2522-06-25.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Olivia will not give any instrumental rationality material to Regex ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by regex on 2016-01-25.
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RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.
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In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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NIST's overall budget will increase from FY 2015 to 2016 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-21; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.