Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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India – Coranavirus positive cases at 10000 by 1st April, 2020 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50,000 ( 35% confidence; 30 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-04-02.
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Chuukese independence referendum to be held in March 2020 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-02.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 4/1 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-04-02.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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estado de excepcion lo quitarán el 1 de abril 2020 ( 75% confidence )
Created by raulquan on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by raulquan on 2020-04-01.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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On March 26th 2020 the states of California, Pennsylvania, Washington, Ohio, and Maryland will be quarantined, with smaller areas within on fenced lock down. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AgentAri on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-03-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-29.
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Turkey to have announced withdrawal from NATO ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-29.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-27.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23.
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Fed Fund Rate range will be in 0-25bps after July FOMC meeting. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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Federal Reserve cuts Fed Fund Rate range to 0-25bps by end of 2020 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-03-21; judged right by playablecharacter on 2020-03-21.
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More than 100 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-16; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-03-21.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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[US FOMC March 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-03-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-19.
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[Personal] I will read at least 16 books in 2020 Q1 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2020-01-07; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Joe Biden ( 37% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-18.