Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.2 MMbpd ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.5 MMbpd ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.
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[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st ( 50% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.
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[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st ( 60% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.
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[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st ( 5% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.
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Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.
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Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-08.
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[Fighting] UFC 238 to be held as scheduled on June 8, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-08; judged right by stepan on 2019-06-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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Merlon intelligence will raise another round of funding within two years ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peteris on 2017-06-05; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Peteris on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I complete Art of Tidying discarding before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-06-03; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-06-04.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-04.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-04.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-04.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-01.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.
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[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-28.