Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
Displaying all predictions made by bcongdon. Filter by:
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.
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[The Economist predicts:] US gives notice of withdrawal from NATO ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] United States falls into recession during the next 12 months ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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Jeopardy will still be on the air in 2025. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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oil consumption will remain at or above current levels for at least 20 years ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2019-11-30; known on 2039-11-30.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the democratic primary ( 17% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by skuthus on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.