Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 50% | 65% | 80% | 94% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 28 | 26 | 45 | 70 | 11 | 201 |
Displaying all predictions made by WilliamKiely. Filter by:
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-12-17.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-04-02.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-03-10.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m ( 8% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Less than 4h30m ( 2% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2020 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-02.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-04-07; known on 2028-04-07.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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On GivingTuesday 2017, Facebook/Gates Foundation will increase their $2 million in matching funds after it runs out. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match 100% of my donations made between the hours of 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on #GivingTuesday ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-01.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted by a city with a population of < 3,000,000 people in its metropolitan area ( 25% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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My application for the Mt Whitney Lottery will be accepted. ( 35% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-03-24.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will read 40+ books in 2017 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 30+ books in 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 4001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 3001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2901-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2801-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2701-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2601-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2401-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2301-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2201-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.
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Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will change my view on whether PredictionBook should have us mark our predictions “right” or “wrong” or use different language instead in the next 48 hours ( 20% confidence; 29 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-06; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-02-07.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.