PredictionBook transitioning to read-only mode at the end of 2023 ( read more ).

In one month, my score will be higher than the site average.

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-07-07

  • Michael Dickens estimated 80% on 2014-06-07
  • Michael Dickens said “Most of my uncertainty comes from the fact that I may be misinterpreting how scores work.on 2014-06-07
  • ssssss said “It seems to be an implementation of this proposal of Gwern’s: https://github.com/tricycle/predictionbook/issues/3on 2014-06-07
  • cobalt estimated 90% on 2014-06-08
  • Neznans said “Definitely not the proper place to mention it, but: if used at all, I’d say that the score is rather useless for inter-user comparison, due to the arbitrariness of people’s prediction subjects.on 2014-06-09
  • Neznans said “i.e. future world events vs. “I’m going to eat sausage tomorrow for lunch” (not to say that it can be artificially bumped via private predictions).on 2014-06-09
  • JoshuaZ said “And also note that people sometimes give a prediction with very high confidence right before they judge it. e.g. http://predictionbook.com/predictions/4123on 2014-06-09
  • Jayson Virissimo said “Interpersonal comparisons could be done if we could categorize predictions and only compare predictions of the same type. Anyway, it still might be useful for seeing changes over time as long as the kinds of predictions you make remain similar.on 2014-06-09
  • Neznans said “Yes…. I do think that creating separate ‘new judgments deadline’ and ‘known by’ dates would be a huge improvement. Or at least for the way I imagine this tool being utilized.on 2014-06-10
  • lettergram estimated 60% on 2014-06-19
  • Michael Dickens said “I don’t think type of prediction should matter. If a prediction is more uncertain, you should have lower confidence.on 2014-07-07
  • Michael Dickens said “I can no longer find where PredictionBook publishes scores. It may have been removed.on 2014-07-07
  • Michael Dickens withdrew the prediction on 2014-07-07

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