Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by Balazs. Filter by:
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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Jacob Appelbaum will kill himself before 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.