Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 33% | 43% | 80% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 8 | 9 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 38 |
Displaying all predictions made by ejlflop. Filter by:
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A nuclear fusion reactor will hit an economic breakeven before January 1st 2057, conditional on no existential catastrophes or wins. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2057-01-01.
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Still in a relationship with E by end of 2018 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-12-12.
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E and I will break up before planned holiday together in July ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2018-07-28; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-08-28.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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I will continue to use Emacs, StumpWM & Screen as my primary workflow for four more years ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by ejlflop on 2020-06-16.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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This piece is a parody: http://thoughtcatalog.com/emily-goldstein/2015/05/get-rid-of-white-people/ ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-02.
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Jeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader. This text has a line through it. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-13.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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Alastair will get a hangover from Emma May Ball ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.
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I will discover a 16th/17th century composer more avant-garde than M. Rossi or Gesualdo ( 25% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2017-01-01.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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Get at least a 2:1 in Part II Astro. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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Get a 1 in Part II Astro ( 50% confidence )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2015-06-12.
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Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
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R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-05-28; known on 2015-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.