Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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Democrats take control of the House in midterms. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-03-01.
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Hillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Ecuador kicks Julian Assange out from their London embassy ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-01; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-04-11.
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Total marketcap of all cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap(or it's successor) dips below 14B$ USD for longer than a day ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2018-09-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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Nuclear exchanging involving all 3 of US, Russia, China either beinig nuked, or nuking some other country within a week ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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US President Zuckerberg ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-03; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-12-03.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-13.
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Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-06.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats gain control of the Senate in the 2018 election. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Republicans will not win the presidential election in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2020-11-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The bill titled “The El Chapo Act” will be signed into law by Trump ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Dapple on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2017-10-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Arbital will merge content with LessWrong (proper or wiki) by 2020-01-01 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2020-01-01.
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Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.