Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 4 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jennifer. Filter by:
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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Insects can feel pain and suffer ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by xdxdxd on 2019-02-02; known on 2050-03-01.
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[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.
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US will have universal health care system by 2026 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2026-12-31.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Republicans will win back both chambers of congress in 2022 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2022-11-08.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Before 1 January 2019, the US federal government bans the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Saudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Cocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.