Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
-
Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
-
[Fighting] UFC 239 to be held as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
-
Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
-
Youtube channel Tech Ingredients will reach 200,000 subscribers (Currently 14k) within 2 years ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-03-28; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by bendini on 2019-07-07.
-
iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.
-
Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-06.
-
[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 200 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 210 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 220 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 230 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 240 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 250 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 260 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
[My total days exercised this year:] 262 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
-
We would predict the complexity of stories using probabilities and stuff… ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2019-07-04.
-
Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
-
[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
-
The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 135 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 130 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 125 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 105 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 85 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
-
[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM ( 90% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 H1 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.