Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gregor “The Mountain” Clegane ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jorah Mormont ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gendry ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bronn ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sandor “The Hound” Clegane ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Missandei ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Theon Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Davos Seaworth ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jaime Lannister ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tyrion Lannister ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Varys ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Arya Stark ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sansa Stark ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tormund Giantsbane ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gilly ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bran Stark ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Samwell Tarly ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Brienne of Tarth ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jon Snow ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Cersei Lannister ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Daenerys Targaryen ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Night King ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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A whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-09-04.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.
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At least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12.
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Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-01.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-28; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-30.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 20% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-12.
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Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the House Intelligence Committee on March 27th 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-03-28; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-27.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.