Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 54% | 45% | 65% | 67% | 67% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 44 | 23 | 36 | 48 | 3 | 167 |
Displaying all predictions made by Matt. Filter by:
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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By the end of the sprint we will have simplified the setup of Bellroy project by removing at-least 2-3 manual tasks such as sample files, database creation, initial webpack. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.
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We would have working airflow Dag by the end of this sprint ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-20; judged wrong by Jais Cheema on 2017-03-20.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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At least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about “the” “A Christmas Carol” movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2016-06-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-06.
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My PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.
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My PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.
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I'll get RCJ their numbers before close of business Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2014-07-14; known on 2014-07-16; judged wrong by Matt on 2014-07-16.
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We will have hired a Magento dev by 6 September ( 40% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2013-08-28; known on 2013-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2013-09-09.
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JB will win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2013-05-14; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-22.
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Average 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-12-07.
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Created by Matt on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-12-13.
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I'll attend 3sat on the 17th. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2012-11-08; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-18.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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The Indian place on the site of Bagatelles will be out of business inside 2 years. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by Matt on 2013-05-05.
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At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn't count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.
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Bret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-12-01; known on 2010-12-02; judged right by bretcav on 2010-12-05.
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I'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-10-16; known on 2010-10-20; judged right by Matt on 2010-10-20.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 18th Sept. [dashboard team strength 60%] ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-09-18; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-09-18.
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the bub will be a boy ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2010-01-25; known on 2010-03-29; judged right by Frank on 2010-03-29.
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KD is K D P/L ( 95% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-01-08; known on 2010-01-08; judged wrong by nomadphase on 2010-01-11.
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Someone (likely a tall German) will have an Xbox plugged into the Trike TV before New Year's Day. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-12-22; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Plan Deliver website will be available at its proper home before the Christmas break ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-12-21; known on 2009-12-23; judged right by Wes on 2009-12-23.
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There will be no new PD clients till the end of the year :( ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-12-13; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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I will have saasu set up by end of Friday this week ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fionajohnston on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-05; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-22.
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Kando will be ready (in respect to the features) to get the 10 dentists on ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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i will be able to stand on a surf board for more than 5 sec after this weekend ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-06; judged right by Tom on 2009-12-06.
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We'll find a human-based way to fix integration with MYOB or opt for a different accounting solution. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-11-30; known on 2009-12-30; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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I will have automated the rollout of a ruby site by the end of the week. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-27; judged wrong by jon on 2009-11-27.
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Our TV will be set up (connected to a server, some kind of status report) til the end of the week ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-11-22; known on 2009-11-28; judged right by Tom on 2009-11-29.
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I won't get the swine flu during this year. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by popojala on 2009-11-14; known on 2010-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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FOX will not pick up the show “Dollhouse” for a third season. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-15; judged right by Jack on 2009-11-12.
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Bell/Carry sites will be live by Friday. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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DC practices management improvement job will be complete by Friday ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-11-02; known on 2009-11-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-11-14.
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When I turn on my brother's just upgraded macbook, it'll work. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-10-17; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-17.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Glenn will arrive at Trike before 10am (GMT+10) today. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-14; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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Radiopaedia will be up and running on the staging server by the end of the week ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-02; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-30.
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LW will be running (not live) on AWS hardware this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-10-04; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-10-15.
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G's analysis will be submitted to him by Wednesday ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-28; known on 2009-09-30; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-30.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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Radiopaedia's visitor traffic will reach 100K/month before Sept 2010 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-25; known on 2010-11-16; judged right by Frank on 2010-09-16.
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Volume 2: iphone App will sell 1000 copies in the first month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Frank on 2009-09-22; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by Frank on 2009-11-02.
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LW will go up (as a demo, not live) on AWS this week ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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OB will go live on AWS this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-27; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-27.
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Radiopaedia will go live on or before Wed next week (week beginning 21 Sep) ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-24; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-24.
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Radiopaedia wont go live tday ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-21; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Tom on 2009-09-21.
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My PB chart (http://bit.ly/nV7rV) will still look very embarrassing at the end of the week. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-15; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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I will have written and submitted my Trike profile ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-21.
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We will have another Plandeliver client (verbal agreement) by the end of the week ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-14; known on 2009-09-21; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-21.
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I'll send Katrina some designs I'm happy with this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-08; known on 2009-09-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-13.
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Round 2 and 3 of the Radiopaedia styling will be completed. Where completed means released to dev. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged right by Wes on 2009-09-14.
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we'll have implemented free-text searching by selectable filters (new approach) ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by captainpete on 2009-09-14.
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I will make two more predictions before the weeks end. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jon on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Matt on 2009-09-15.
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At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Sunday ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-14.
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I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-13; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-12.
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I will work Friday ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-11; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-11.
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We will start working on the MyOB integration at Kando ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-09-14; judged wrong by Tom on 2009-09-14.
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Kando will be live first of december ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tom on 2009-09-07; known on 2009-12-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-12-01.
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I will have a new iPhone 3GS in hand ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-06.
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At least one of our apps will be running on the full AWS stack (ELB, EC2 app, EC2 db, EBS) by Monday ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-09-07.
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I will have closed all the currently open podshifter tickets relating to broken feeds ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-06; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-09-07.
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Round 2 of the Radiopaedia redesign integration will be completed ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Wes on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-09-07.
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we'll have finished refactoring variants into products ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by captainpete on 2009-08-31; known on 2009-09-07; judged right by captainpete on 2009-09-07.
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We will end up chosing the vegetarian degustation menu. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-05-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-06-04.
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I will make it home before 7pm tonight ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by CRobert on 2009-06-02; known on 2009-06-02; judged right by CRobert on 2009-06-02.
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Google Wave will change the way we E-Mail/IM/Communicate ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2010-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-01.
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It will be a girl. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Andy on 2009-05-15; known on 2009-11-16; judged right by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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Andy and Miyo will have a baby boy ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Miyo on 2009-05-13; known on 2009-11-15; judged wrong by Miyo on 2009-06-18.
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The statistical plot of sitewide predictions will approach a horizontal line, 50% accuracy, as the usage base increases ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-01; known on 2009-11-11; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-03.
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The result of this coin flip will be heads ( 50% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2009-05-05; known on 2009-05-05; judged right by scott.arbeitman on 2009-05-05.
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the new overridable URL field will cause problems with caching (esp. static caching) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Gerrit on 2009-01-22; known on 2009-01-26; judged wrong by Gerrit on 2009-01-30.
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Our unfinished run of http://projecteuler.net/index.php?section=problems&id=32 will be correct anyway ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-04; known on 2008-12-04; judged right by Matt on 2008-12-04.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Jan 15, 2009 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-01-15; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-01-17.
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Radiopaedia.org new styling will be rolled out before start of business Feb 1, 2009 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-12-02; known on 2009-02-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2009-02-01.
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Our podshifter large file problems will resolve if lame can be made to correctly mp3 > wav decode ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-25; known on 2008-12-02; judged wrong by Matt on 2008-12-02.
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Charlotte will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-11-10.
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Alex will be asleep before we arrive home (made yesterday, during car trip). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-11-10; known on 2008-11-09; judged wrong by Lina on 2008-11-10.
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Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu ( 55% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Matt on 2008-09-09.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 4 hours ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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Anonymous users will take Gerrit more than 8 hours ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-19; judged right by Glenn on 2009-09-28.
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I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-22; known on 2008-08-22; judged wrong on 2008-08-22.
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The existing crmhub api will allow licenses to be retrieved from an email address (but may require multiple requests) ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-20; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-08-14.
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PredictionBook will have an Alpha server running by June 20, 2008 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-06-20; known on 2008-06-20; judged right on 2008-08-14.
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Trike staff will eat all the chocolates and raise money for charity ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chantelle on 2008-07-10; known on 2008-07-24; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.
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When I click the link in Glenn's bogus comment in my name, it'll be Rick ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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Within 10 seconds, Charlottle will wriggle out of her current position ( 70% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-18; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.
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1AUD will be worth greater than 1USD before the year is out ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2009-01-01; judged wrong by Glenn on 2009-01-08.
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I'll be able to convince Westpac to handle Ruth's account changes without going to the branch ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Matt on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-07-21; judged right on 2008-08-01.
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The Hindenburg Disaster caused 6 or fewer deaths ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-01; known on 2008-08-01; judged wrong on 2008-08-01.