Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Brian invites me back to play poker ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-08-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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Podcast runs for 2+ hours ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-08-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Sixers (my reason is because of their home vs away record and bad seed) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it helps the Lakers ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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[In the Thinking Basketball podcast episode about the NBA restart Taylor will say] it hurts the Nuggets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-04.
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[Personal] According to the Waking Up app, I'll have spent at least 2000 minutes meditating in the rest of 2020. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-08-03.
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90%+ on quiz ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
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The answer is body talk ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
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Bucks beat Rockets ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
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I get the emailing a spreadsheet thing working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-03.
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I will not have finished reading Superforecasting by the end of July ( 80% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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Until the end of the month, the balances in the betting game I'm playing with Vt. will not go beyond 150/50 either way ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I'll not play live poker until the end of July ( 95% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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By the end of the week, I will still have made a profit playing poker ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I will Zoom / Skype / Hangout with at least 1 friend this week ( 85% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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I won't bike with N. next weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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By the end of the week, I will have get publishable – even if not awesome – results with my neural network ( 70% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-03.
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Noodles taste better cold ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02.
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A team signs Antonio Brown | football season not cancelled ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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Personal – I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by panashe on 2020-08-01.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-08-01.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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I get the bugs fixed and sending working today ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
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Felipe emails me back today ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
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Guy wants the basic plan | makes the purchase ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
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Guy ends up making the purchase ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-26; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
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The bug is because the batch add endpoint not doing enough ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-01.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 8/1 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-07-31.
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I get Twilio working today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Clippers win ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-31.
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England will beat Ireland in the 2020-07-30 ODI ( 90% confidence )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-07-30.
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Zvi interprets this week as at least moderately better than expected ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-30.
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Bk. will have answered my message by the end of the month ( 60% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-07-30.
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The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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I figure out the Atlas bug ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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The Atlas bug is due to my password being incorrect ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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I figure out the Heroku deployment issue ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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grunt-node-inspector is the issue with my Heroku deployment ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29; known on 2020-07-29; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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I get all of my Anki cards correct today ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28; known on 2020-07-28; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-29.
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Facebook gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-28.