Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 43% | 44% | 20% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 6 | 1 | 29 |
Displaying all predictions made by Madplatypus. Filter by:
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-12-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2051-01-01; judged unknown by David on 2015-08-01.
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Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a De Facto independent Kurdistan incorporating territory in both former Syria and Iraq through 2020. ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-08-05.
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The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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If Greece is bailed out under condition of austerity, these conditions will cease to be enforced within Greece by 2018, or never be enforced at all. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Syriza will remain in power through 2020 ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Acty will not make a prediction on PredictionBook within a week. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-28; known on 2015-07-05.
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The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.
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Obormot will not contact a HEMA branch in his area before the end of July. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2015-08-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Omar Al-Baghdadi will be killed before the end of the year. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01.
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hilary clinton will not be elected ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by marcDouglas on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.
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Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.