Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 100% | 43% | 67% | 77% | 67% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 2 | 7 | 3 | 13 | 3 | 37 |
Displaying all predictions made by Metus. Filter by:
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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
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I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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This web project will be closed down before most of the long term predictions can be judged. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by thaprophet on 2011-11-04; known on 2013-11-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-04.
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Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.
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The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.
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Five people will join this prediction until friday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.
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Three people will join this prediction until friday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 15 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn't count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party's list.” -ipredict ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.
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Fobos-Grunt will successfully launch and return to Earth by March 1, 2020 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-03.
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I will score 50% or higher on my CPSC 121 midterm ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by joke-away on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-19; judged right by joke-away on 2011-10-19.
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“S&P will announce before 1 July 2013 a downgrade of its France sovereign rating.” ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by eagleclaw6 on 2013-11-20.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.
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No one will join this prediction until friday. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.