Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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P=ZPP proven by 2045 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-07; known on 2045-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
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By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
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Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.
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No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.