Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Night 31: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Homework due this week will be done on time ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-01.
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I will eat no more than 1000kcal/day (± 10%) in January. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-01-31.
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Night 30: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-31.
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“The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier's book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.
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Night 29: pill was Vitamin D ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-30.
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.
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3rd Test Australia v India at Perth: India Wins ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Akshay Rawat on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-17; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-30.
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Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.
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TechDirt: CLT's 'Security Theater' will be featured in this week's “funniest/most insightful comments”. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-30.
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PD will have 50 or more paid trucks on the system before the end of 2011. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2011-02-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-01-30.
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Night 28: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-29.
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My nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29.
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I will regret not attending the IAI President's speech. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-29.
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“Michele Bachmann to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-28.
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Eliezer will reply to my PM in the next 2 days. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Eliezer will have replied to my PM by tomorrow morning. The reply will be a go-ahead. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-28.
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Night 27: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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I will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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Night 26: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-26.
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Kefit will die before stage 8 in Asakura P ( 60% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-01-26.
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GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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Night 25: pill was Vitamin D ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-25.
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 New Hampshire Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25.
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The Japanese Language pack install will be successful. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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My PC will realise Japanese isn't an installed language after I run CCleaner's registry cleanup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-01-25; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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End Acta petition to the White House will have 25k signatures by Monday. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-30; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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End Acta petition to the White house will have 25k signatures in 2 weeks. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-25.
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Night 24: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-01-24; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-24.
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Will have college tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-24.
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“Leprechauns” (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24.
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The Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. —Capitol Commentary ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.
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Night 23: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-01-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.
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I will squat my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.
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I will deadlift my own bodyweight or more for 5 sets of 5 reps with 1 minute rests before June 2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-23.
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Will submit my database case study before the deadline. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-01-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-23.
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My interpretation of wedrifid's position is “about right”. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22.
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Night 22: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-01-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-22.
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“Michele Bachmann to win the 2012 South Carolina Primary” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-01-28; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-22.
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Night 21: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-01-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-21.
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Night 20: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-20; known on 2012-01-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd and Misha rejoins your party. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.