Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 61% | 63% | 77% | 97% | 67% | |
Sample Size | 35 | 36 | 30 | 61 | 107 | 3 | 272 |
Displaying all predictions made by lavalamp. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Created by lavalamp on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-31.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 2x fork is the sole surviving chain, or core doubles the block size. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
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Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-26.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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Bitcoin: trades above 6k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-05-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
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By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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A portfolio with 10% of each GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, EBAY, ORB, MMM, NVDA, DDD, and FMI will do better than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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Bitcoins will reach more than 2000$ (at least one time) during the year 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.
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Inflation rate of the dollar is 4.2% or higher for 2014. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-15; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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A law-enforcement agency or someone(s) interested in law enforcement will be revealed to have been the creator(s) of Bitcoin, and will have done so in order to track illegal dealings. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2074-01-18.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Price per barrel of oil hits $110 by the end of summer. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-10-05.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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The price of Bitcoin is likely to range between $4000-5000 by the end of 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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There will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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More than $100M of venture capital will flow into Bitcoin start-ups in 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2019-01-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-11.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-06.
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LiteCoin's double in value (to $50) in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-07.
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Bitcoin will reach a new all-time high (>$1242.00) in five days or less after exceeding $1068. (Mtgox prices) Both events will occur sometime in 2014. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-11.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.