Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 21% | 58% | 63% | 87% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 26 | 24 | 30 | 44 | 7 | 145 |
Displaying all predictions made by adbge. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Oakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adbge on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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This season of The Walking Dead will have a higher pirated:legitimate ratio in Australia than the most recent Game of Thrones season did. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-10-14; known on 2013-12-23.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.
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My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Zach and Katie's relationship ends within four years. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-05-18; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-11-17.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.
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Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Amanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2015-05-04.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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CFAR will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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Slate Star Codex will remain active until end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-10.
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In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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There is a terrorist attack in the USA killing > 100 people. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Mukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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Sandra Bullock will win Best Actress. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Meryl Streep will win Best Actress. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Leonardo DiCaprio will win Best Actor. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Chiwetel Ejiofor will win Best Actor. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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The Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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American Hustle will win Best Picture. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Gravity will win Best Picture. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Her will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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12 Years a Slave will win Best Picture. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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There will be no snow this March in Champaign ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by flyingfox on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-02.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Green Bay will beat the San Francisco 49ers tomorrow. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-01-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-01-08.
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Pat Quinn wins the 2014 Illinois Gubernatorial election. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by adbge on 2014-11-05.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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In one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado. ( 50% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Pope Francis to be named official TIME Person of Year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-12; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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Snowden to be named official TIME Person of the Year. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-10; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-11.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Chicago-area will not have a white (1 inch of snow or greater) Christmas. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-26.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
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Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
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Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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Hillary Clinton will go unopposed in 2016 Democratic primaries. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31.
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Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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SpaceX will launch more than 2 rockets this year. ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by kiba on 2013-12-11.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.