Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Sarah Palin named ambassador to Canada ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-09; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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bitcoin hard fork occurs ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-08-07; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-08.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2016 will be under 2.4% ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Afforess on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT's refund emails actually correspond to a refund arriving in my bank account before the end of the 4th of August 2017. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives before next Monday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-06.
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Shape of You will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-06.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament Finals is Reborn vs Oxygen ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-05.
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Both backups fail ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05.
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Despacito will reach 3 billion YouTube video views on or before September 1, 2017, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 3 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 96% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-09-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-04.
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Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.
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TWOPENCES is in the most recent North American Scrabble dictionary ( 90% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-03; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-08-03.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Arianespace Vega Aug. 1 or 2 Optsat 3000 & Venus launches successfully ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-02.
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Colbert stops being a late show host by August 2017 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $1400 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-02.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between July 1 and July 31, 2017 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-02.
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I will have moved to the UK by this August. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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I go to DEFCON in July 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Community, Rationalist – Kernel Project is moved into Manchester by end of August. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.
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By 2018 The Kernel Project will have reached step 9 as defined in https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wmVZJiDjTjxmVshSFSk2rH-b8GLiQ0DJ0Cw1hyOnswM/edit?usp=sharing ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, US – Congress calls Obama to testify under oath before the end of July 2017. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.