Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Russia will lose at least one rocket launch in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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In 2012, I will go to at least two open viewing nights for telescopes in the greater Boston area ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will have a total LessWrong karma of at least 10,000 by the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will achieve a non-trivial lower bound for either the prime conductor Artin representations or the generic conductor case before January. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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My friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2013-01-01.
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Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-01-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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As of 01-01-2013, according to the CIA World Factbook, none of the top 5 GDP per capita (PPP) countries will contain the word “democracy” or “democratic” in their government type variable. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will listen to all of Michel Thomas – Japanese Foundation, before 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will watch 90%+ of Love Exposure (2008) before 2013 ( 43% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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My continuous web archiving system will have 90%+ uptime in 2012 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will buy a MacBook Air before 2013 ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will watch Dexter 7×06 before 2013 ( 1% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Apple will ship a Macbook Air (or closest product successor) with a non-glossy display to a customer before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Foreign military intervention in Mali ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Giving What We Can will have at least 320 pledged members by December 31, 2012. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.