Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*' ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.
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I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.
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Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.
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Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 – http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2030-12-15.
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“Alzheimer's disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.
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'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.
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'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.
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'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.' —Danny Hillis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.
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There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.
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World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
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'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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US CBO: health spending >=49% of GDP in 2082 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2083-01-01.
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US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.
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“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.
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'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.
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“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.
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I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.
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“China's current regime will be overthrown or reformed (another political Party come into power) before 2020” ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2050 most computer hardware will no longer be binary. ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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'Vertical farms are appearing in many cities' by 2025 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09.
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'China's economy continues to boom' in 2025 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person. —Ray Kurzweil ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards. Furthermore, most of this interaction occurs through computerized assistants with different personalities that the user can select or customize. —Ray Kurz ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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These special glasses and contact lenses can deliver “augmented reality” and “virtual reality” in three different ways. First, they can project “heads-up-displays” (HUDs) across the user's field of vision, superimposing images that stay in place in the en ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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People experience 3-D virtual reality through glasses and contact lenses that beam images directly to their retinas (retinal display). Coupled with an auditory source (headphones), users can remotely communicate with other people and access the Internet. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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'African elephants are on the brink of extinction' in 2024 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Petabyte storage devices are available in 2024 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Solar Probe Plus flies into Sun's corona in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.
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'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.
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“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.
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'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.
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'2050 Bored in this era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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'2024 Infrared signals are detected coming from the centre of the Galaxy, obviously the product of a technologically advanced civilisation. All attempts to decipher them fail.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'Borneo’s rainforests have been wiped from the map' by 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'A permanent cure for migraine is available' by 2023 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Artificial Intelligence reaches human level. From now on there are two intelligent species on Earth.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.