Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 7 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 21 |
Displaying all predictions made by endoself. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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No 3rd party candidate gains 5% of the popular vote for president. (90%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I got a perfect score on my Physics 131L exam. ( 20% confidence )
Created by endoself on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-03.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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“Michele Bachmann to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.