Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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I will have 1 or more friend daylios with tyler in July of this year ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by iterate-again on 2022-01-01.
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My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2022-01-01.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-29.
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There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.
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In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.
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Out of the 4 or 5 people who cheated in the exam, no-one will confess ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-22; known on 2021-12-27; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-12-28.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-12-24.
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I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-12-20.
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This semester, I will have the time to talk object programming in the introduction to Python class. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-10-13; known on 2021-12-20; judged wrong by Tot on 2021-12-20.