Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by Pfft. Filter by:
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in Hollingsworth v. Perry (the Prop 8 case) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by Pfft on 2013-06-26.
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The US Supreme Court will find it has jurisdiction in United States vs Windsor (the DOMA case). ( 80% confidence )
Created by Pfft on 2013-01-22; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pfft on 2013-06-26.