Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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A portfolio with one third of each TWTR, CAS, and GE will do worst than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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A portfolio with 10% of each GOOG, AMZN, TSLA, MSFT, EBAY, ORB, MMM, NVDA, DDD, and FMI will do better than the Dow Jones (not counting dividends) between February 1st 2014 and January 1st 2015 (excluded). ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-01-05.
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I will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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I will attend Comiket 87. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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EC will attend Comiket 87. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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The main character in Bird Man would swap the prop gun for a real one and shoot himself. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04; known on 2017-05-26; judged right by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2015-01-04.
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I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.
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I will manage to enroll my son Jacek into deaf children's school, even though by law he has to have a hearing deficit, which he does not have – he has auditory verbal agnosia. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by jkadlubo on 2015-01-04.
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I will re-watch 3+ of my favorite movies (rated 90th+ percentile) before 2015-01-05 ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-04.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Jan 1st of 2015 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2015-01-04.
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I will still be in the Pigeon Feeders party (HabitRPG) in 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-04.
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B will accept my friend request. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-04.
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Bruce Willis will have more than 5 minutes of screentime in Sin City: A Dame to Kill For ( 20% confidence )
Created by Grognor on 2014-08-21; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by Grognor on 2015-01-03.
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The rehearsal on Friday will go ahead ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-03.
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I will read 120 books in 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Xammer on 2014-01-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Xammer on 2015-01-03.
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Italian ferry death total to reach at least 15 by January 3rd ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-03.
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I will still think Her is the best movie of 2014 by the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kytael on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by Kytael on 2015-01-03.
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The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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There will be less than 5 alt-coins (out of the 50+ in existence) that will survive 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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The price of Bitcoin is likely to range between $4000-5000 by the end of 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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More than $100M of venture capital will flow into Bitcoin start-ups in 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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By 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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Man U will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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Man City will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 65% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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I will have no overdue tasks on January 1st ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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Rob Ford will not the mayor of Toronto by January 1, 2015 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02.
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Some kind of altercation between China and Japan leads to missiles being launched by the end of 2014 ( 3% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-02.
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I will weight less than 65 kg by end 2014 Started at 77kg now 68kg ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2914-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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I will watch a movie I like more than Persona (current favorite) by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by asalmon on 2014-10-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by asalmon on 2015-01-02.
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We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
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We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
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<10 US Fataltiies due to Ebola virus in 2014 ( 98% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2015-01-02.
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Scott Alexander will join Tumblr ( 50% confidence )
Created by fiftytwo on 2014-01-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by fiftytwo on 2015-01-02.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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bitcoin will cost more than $1500 by the end of year ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.