Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 67% | 91% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 35 |
Displaying all predictions made by Reinersaltaccount. Filter by:
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Elon Musk buys Silicon Valley Bank before April 30 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-03-12; known on 2023-04-30; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-05-04.
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Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Joe Biden will die within five years. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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The U.S. will go to war (>20,000 new troop deployment) before the end of Biden/Harris' first term. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2021-01-22; known on 2025-01-20.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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Trump becoming President in 2025. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2025-01-22.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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The 'Attack on Titan' anime has an “AOE”, i.e. an ending which diverges significantly from the manga ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known 24 days ago.
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Cr1TiKaL says 'Attack on Titan' has a bad ending ( 23% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-12; known 24 days ago.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Carlsen wins the Airthings Master Grand Final ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-10; known on 2023-02-12; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-14.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2025 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2026-01-01.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the third time around ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner the second time around ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Andrei Tarkovsky ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Scott Sumner ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator correctly guesses Light Yagami ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Akinator guesses Bryan Caplan correctly ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Joe Biden has a near-death experience in the next two years ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2023-02-06; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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The Los Angeles Clippers beat the New York Knicks on February 5, 2023 ( 77% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05; known on 2023-02-05; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-05.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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Ron DeSantis runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 81% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Human-level AI by 2040 (Richard Sutton: Eyes On The Prize talk, 2022) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Will I pass all my exams (Micro, Macro, Maths, Statistics, Business) for this semester (1st semester of my bachelor). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-04-19.
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I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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John Bannister Goodenough will reach the age of 101 years old ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-03; known on 2023-07-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-03.
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I will watch a film better than 'Lawrence of Arabia' and '2001: A Space Odyssey' by 2090. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.
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I will watch a TV show better than 'Breaking Bad' by 2090. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08; known on 2090-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will John Goodenough hit age 100? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 142 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-09-22; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Marco Rubio will be Donald Trump's VP pick ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-14.
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AMC will hit as low as $8 again and then bounce to a new ATH, higher than $80, during 2022. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-01-04; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-04.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Larry King will get cryopreserved in the next 50 years ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2021-01-03; known on 2071-01-01.
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World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.