Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will switch from Emacs as my primary text editor before 2017. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-01-01.
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Graduate ( 80% confidence )
Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
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I will move house again in the next year ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2017-01-01.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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China's Shanghai Composite Index will be down 33+% YTD ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5% ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Barack Obama leaves the White House with an approval rating ≥ 50. (Favorable/Unfavorable) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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>32 faithless electors ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Canuck the Crow (http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/crow-in-east-vancouver-attack-no-ordinary-bird-cyclist-discovers-1.3247899) to die in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Amazon Prime will cost $150 per year or less on Jan 1, 2017. Contingent upon no major changes in the Amazon prime system (e.g., no premium service, drones, or changes in shipping rates). Per convo w Chris S, who thinks Amazon is gonna start trying to actu ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2014-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 1 BTC ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 0.4 BTC ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Federal Reserve cuts the Federal Funds rate at least once in 2016. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Blackstone's stock price will go below $20 before January 1, 2017 ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will go below 1250 in 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016 ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016 ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Young girls will stop gossiping in Saskatoon ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.