Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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“Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field” ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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“Joe Biden leads the Democratic field” ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“Bernie Sanders leads the Democratic field” ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-04-09.
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China will increase their cap on solar production in 2019 to at least 20 GW before the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-03-23.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-30; judged wrong by tony77 on 2019-01-31.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-07.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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“Global carbon emissions will increase” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Average world temperatures will increase relative to 2018” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“DeepMind will release an AlphaZero update, or new app, capable of beating humans and existing computer programs at a task in a new domain” ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Fully autonomous self-driving cars will not be commercially available as taxis or for sale” ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Impossible Burger meat will be sold in at least one national grocery chain” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“More animals will be killed for US human consumption in 2019 than in 2018” ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“No additional countries will adopt a universal basic income” ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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“Malaria deaths will decrease” ( 85% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Neither India nor China will enter a recession” ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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“The United Kingdom will leave the European Union” ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“US homicides will decline” ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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“Congress will not authorize funding for a full-length border wall” ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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“The US will not enter a recession” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“No Democratic presidential candidate will become a clear frontrunner in the political prediction markets at any point in 2019” ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Donald Trump will still be in office” ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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1 or more “CRISPR babies” will be announced before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Trump will remain president as of January 1st, 2020 ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Economy] S&P 500 to outperform Shanghai Stock Index in 2019 ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-01.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-03-04; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.
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At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.
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Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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“We will not discover a way to create even small worlds (e.g. a house-sized world)” ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Brent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-09-11.
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The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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The Taliban control most of Afghanistan including Kabul ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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The Chavista regime rules Venezuela ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
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Top 10 by market cap coins on CMC will have more than one stable coin ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-12-29; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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[Gaydar] Saoirse Ronan (Saoirse Una Ronan) comes out as queer ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-12-21; known on 2068-12-22.
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Vladimir Putin won't be the President of the Russian Federation by March 2024 (i.e. he won't be able to finish his 4th term) ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-12-21; known on 2024-03-17.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Less than 10 deaths in the gilet jaunes manifestation today ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-12-08; known on 2018-12-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-15.
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The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-12-05; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by sjy on 2020-12-06.
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The RTX 2080 Ti will see an official price reduction (MSRP) of at least 300$ before the end of 2019. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2020-01-01.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 100 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2118-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 30 years. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2048-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 10 years. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2028-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-04-15.