Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by phreeza on 2014-03-13.
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Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-05-01.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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Now that Goodreads has been acquired by Amazon, “I doubt it will survive in its current form for more than 2 years.” — Joey Hess ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-04-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2015-04-04.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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Conditioned on the Miami Heat getting the all-time consecutive wins record, the Miami Heat won't win the NBA championship in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-07-01.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls three months from now (until 7/1/2013) ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-27; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls a month from now (until 5/1/2013) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-27; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Cyprus will still be subject to capital controls a year from now (until 4/1/2014) ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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Miami Heat will break the Lakers 33 game consecutive win streak in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-04-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-28.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Harvard will make it to the round of 16 in the 2013 NCAA tournament ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-24.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
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I will be physically stronger than a bear someday (possibly assisted by a mech or something, but not a remote-controlled one). ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2100-01-01.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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Square will go public in 5 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2018-03-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Angelo Scola will be the next pope. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Argo will win the Oscar Award for Best Picture ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Lakers will trade Kobe Bryant in 2013 or 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The US federal budget sequester (aka “automatic cuts”) will initially take place as planned (though it may or may not be fixed by later retroactive planning). ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as the Secretary of Defense within two weeks of this prediction. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-25; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.
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SpaceX sends a passenger flight to Mars by 2023. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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North Korea to conduct a nuclear test in 2013. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-12.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Binyamin Netanyahu's coalition to win Jan 22 Israeli general election. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-21; known on 2013-01-23; judged right by simplicio on 2013-01-23.
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Jon Snow alive at beginning of The Winds of Winter ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Leo on 2013-01-19; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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By end of 2015, the 1984 Computer Fraud and Abuse Act would have been amended to remove Terms of Service violations ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-16; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
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By end of 2014, DA Carmen Ortiz will no longer be US Attorney for Massachusetts. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Gamespot: Steam Box To Make Life Difficult for Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo in 2013 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-06-15.
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Fight over debt ceiling in Spring of 2013 will cause 1 or more of the 3 major ratings agencies (S&P, Moody, Fitch) to downgrade US govt debt ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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So called “Fiscal Cliff” won't cause US govt credit to be downgraded by 2 or more of big 3 (S&P, Moody, Fitch) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-03-01.
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We're jumping off the Fiscal Cliff. Whee! ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-01-15.
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Washington Post: Assuming full “fiscal cliff” hits, unemployment will go over 11% before mid 2014 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2014-06-01.
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Valuewalk, Forbes: Nokia will sell its mobile business in 2013 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-02-13.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.
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Apple's iWatch will come out before iTV ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Boehner will accept the fiscal cliff deal offered by Obama this week ( 65% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2012-12-25; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Obama will win the election (2012), and the GOP will become a party of lesser influence until 2024, when an independent and Republican will for a short time storm the country. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Turtleread on 2012-04-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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NFL: Megatron will break Jerry Rice's single season receiving record in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-23.
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NFL: Adrian Peterson won't break Eric Dickerson's single season rushing record in 2012 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-20; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-31.
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Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
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Assuming Bernanke leaves in 2014, Janet Yellen more likely to be Fed Chairman than Tim Geithner ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-04.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Graduates to ISP in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Buys Pinterest or Etsy in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Prepares For 2014 Retail Push ( 45% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2013-12-19.
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New federal gun control laws will be passed in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Fed will keep rates low before June 30, 2015 even if unemployment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% in the meantime. ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Fed conditions of employment < 6.5% or inflation > 2.5% will hit before June 30, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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NFL: Peyton Manning will win NFL MVP in 2012-13 season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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Turkey / NATO war with Syria. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by khorporative on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Standard & Poor's Ratings Services will change the unsolicited long-term sovereign credit rating on the Republic of France (from 'AA+') or on the Federal Republic of Germany (from 'AAA') till February 1st. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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NFL: Harbaugh will name Alex Smith as his starter for the 49ers this week ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-29.