Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will finish ahead of Nathan this game ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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We will win this game on BGO (provided Nathan's internet remains on) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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TrikeApps will merge my PredictionBook API pull request within a week. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-28.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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that is a guy ( 75% confidence )
Created by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by TheBlackFox on 2015-04-27.
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My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-05-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will do 50 sit-ups before I go to sleep ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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My money will come through by the end of tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
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A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
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I will clean up my room tomorrow. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will beat my lane opponent in this game of league. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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We will win this game of league. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will get the lane I want in the next game of league. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
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T's song is larger than life ( 47% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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FMK will talk to me by or on 26/04 ( 8% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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Total World population will begin stagnating around the late 2040s after relatively weak growth throughout the next 20 years, with most of that growth coming out of Africa and South-East Asia ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by OferBaratz on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-27.
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I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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Wizards beat the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-27.
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Jake will go to Ohio State. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
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Cavs beat the Celtics ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
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I will not burn my Pizza tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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Fiona Apple – Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
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Roman will be on league of legends when I log in. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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That Friend Request is from Toaff ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
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The temperature for today, when I check BBC weather, will be around 17-18c. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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Warriors beat the Pelicans ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
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I will do at least 40 pushups today ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26.
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DN will drink tonight ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-25.
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H.A. will not schedule the test today. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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There will not be a thunderstorm when I go running. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by btrettel on 2015-04-24.
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DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-23.
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I have at least 1 cavity. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-04-22.
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I will end up going out tonight ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.
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I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.
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I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.
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By Wednesday my piece on the Great Filter on Less Wrong will be at at least +12 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22.
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I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.
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I get a fine of £250 at the disciplinary meeting ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.
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I get a fine of £200 or greater at the disciplinary meeting ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.