Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Our landline phone will be fixed when we check. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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The Niagara Falls will be lit up when we visit. ( 95% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-23.
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More than 1000 known exoplanets by the end 2014 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by mfb on 2013-07-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-10-23.
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SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013 ( 38% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-22.
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I will get a ticket to the Hillary Clinton event on Wednesday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-21.
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I will drop at least 1 class this quarter. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-12-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-19.
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There won't be any questions involving little-omega or little-o notation on the algorithms midterm this week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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I will get at least 54 points on Part II of the algorithms midterm. ( 69% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-16; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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The US debt ceiling will be increased by October 17, 2013 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by foo on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-17; judged right by schimmy on 2013-10-17.
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Government shutdown to extend past November 1 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-11-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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I got a score in the range 65-71/90 (inclusive) on the prelim that I will receive back tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-10-18; judged right by azax1 on 2013-10-17.
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America Movil will succeed in its hostile takeover of KPN ( 30% confidence )
Created by dhoe on 2013-08-09; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-17.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.
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Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.
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Tomorrow I will deploy a fix for the biography textbox issue. ( 95% confidence )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-09; known on 2013-10-11; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-10-16.
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The Turning will have a Rotten Tomatoes rating >= 75% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atroche on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by atroche on 2013-10-16.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of October (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-10-15.
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The Hawaiian punch will be gone from the fridge. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15; known on 2013-10-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-15.
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I will fail to follow through on my dinner plans tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-12; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-10-14.
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The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.
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The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks ( 65% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Stormbreath Dragon ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hero's Downfall ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Abandon ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Mystery ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Silence ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Triumph ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thassa, God of the Sea ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fabled Hero ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Sylvan Caryatid ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Heliod, God of the Sun ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Polukranos, World Eater ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Steam Augury ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Elspeth, Sun's Champion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prognostic Sphinx ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Boon Satyr ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fleecemane Lion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Purphoros, God of the Forge ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Gift of Immortality ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Spear of Heliod ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Erebos, God of the Dead ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Master of Waves ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Firedrinker Satyr ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Mistcutter Hydra ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.