Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 25% | 100% | 71% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 4 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 4 | 32 |
Displaying all predictions made by jkadlubo. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Pedophilia will be legalized in 20 years or in DSM6, whichever comes LATER. Legalized in particular means: age-of-consent abolished completely in any single country of so-called First World (or whatever is analogous to that in 20 years); ownership and dis ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jkadlubo on 2015-07-04; known on 2035-07-03.
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After a month, my IUD insertion will have been deemed successful (i.e. it will not have fallen out or caused some sort of medical complication) ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-04-09; judged right by mad on 2014-04-09.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 months. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 month. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 2 weeks. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-07; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Crimea is applying for membership in the Russian Federation. This procedure takes from 3 days to 3 months. I predict that Crimea will be accepted as part of Russian Federation within 1 week. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-03-26; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-20.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 22nd chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 60% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by jkadlubo on 2014-04-02.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 21st chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 90% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-15.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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I will manage to enroll my son Jacek into deaf children's school, even though by law he has to have a hearing deficit, which he does not have – he has auditory verbal agnosia. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by jkadlubo on 2015-01-04.
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Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Pomeranian Metropolitan Railway in Gdańsk, Poland will be ready by the end of 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tkadlubo on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.