Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 54% | 63% | 76% | 91% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 223 | 296 | 225 | 144 | 161 | 11 | 1060 |
Displaying all predictions made by chemotaxis101. Filter by:
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Like Bob Dole, Romney will be more popular 2 years after the election than during the election ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged unknown by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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>0 combat fatalities (civil unrest excluded) within Ukrainian borders ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by procran on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Crimea or similar territory to be recognized by at least one country as not part of Ukraine by 2016-01-01. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Silver on 2014-03-27.
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Bitcoin will drop in value over next week ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Brazil, 2014: The federal government will announce that an official, mandatory rationing of electricity use will be imposed on a system-wide basis. ( 25% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.
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Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
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The Wolf of Wall Street will win Best Picture. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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Romney will cooperate with Obama on some political initiative in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal “Information Sciences” by 2013. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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By the end of June 2013 I will have donated at least six thousand US dollars to either Effective Animal Activism (part of 80000 Hours) or some other organization that I believe is most cost effective. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pablo on 2013-07-05.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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They won't be able to upload a honey bee brain into a robot insectoid by end of 2015 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
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Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
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I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
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The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
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Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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1 million page-views on `http://www.gwern.net` within 4 months. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-17.
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Djokovic will win wimbledon 2012 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-09.
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I will be hired as a 'crime analyst' before 2013. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
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Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
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Spain will win Euro 2012 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2012-07-02.
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The Los Angeles Kings will win this year's Stanley Cup by a 4-0 victory over New Jersey Devils in the final series currently underway. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2012-06-07.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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GB will out-medal Aus in the 2012 olympic games ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-08-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-08-11.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
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Miami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-22.
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[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become widely accepted for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2022-12-31.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.
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Novak Djokovic and Rafael Nadal will play a 5-set match this sunday (Australian Open: men's final). ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-10.
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My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-17.