Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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If I buy a new Honda Rebel this month, then I won't pay more than $3,700 for it. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-30.
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DNB/nicotine day 33: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-30.
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Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month, ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-29.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 2: placebo then active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-10-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-26.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.
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Last.fm will become intertwined with Facebook, and take the spotlight away from Spotify. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JMArchitect on 2011-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.
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DNB/nicotine day 32: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-25; known on 2012-10-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.
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Non-Japanese customers will be allowed to buy e-books in the Japanese Kindle store. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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Amazon opens Japanese Kindle store in 2012. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-25.
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By October 24, 2012 brazil84 will update his estimate that Amanda Knox was guilty to below 50% and declare that he has so updated on Less Wrong. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-25; known on 2012-10-24; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-24.
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Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.
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There will be a Sydney compDesGrp session within 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-10-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-24.
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There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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There are at least 4 false things reported as “rumors” in this ValueWalk article about the iPad Mini, starting with the $329 price ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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DNB/nicotine day 31: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-23; known on 2012-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-23.
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Lance Armstrong will lose a large portion of his commercial sponsors by end of 2014 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-22.
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DNB/nicotine day 30: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-22.
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'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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Time team 7.1 will be repeated on Discovery History Later today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by Purplerabbits on 2012-10-21.
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DNB/nicotine day 29: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.
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The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
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Ichiro will have a higher batting average for the Yankees (including playoffs) for the rest of the year than he did with Seattle ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20.
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I will become student senator ( 75% confidence )
Created by huggins on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by huggins on 2012-10-18.
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Harry Altman and I will have at least one joint paper published by the end of 2013 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2012-10-18.
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Housemate one-boxes ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-10-17.
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DNB/nicotine day 28: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-17.
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I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
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Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. ( 25% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-15.
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Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. ( 35% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.
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Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.
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China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-10-15.
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Business models based on pay-per-click (as Google's) will be shown to have failed by 2012. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14.
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DNB/nicotine day 27: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-14; known on 2012-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-14.
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DNB/nicotine day 26: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-13; known on 2012-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-13.
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By the end of tomorrow (October 12th) Morendil will post part two of his LessWrong article on forecasting. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2012-10-13; judged right by Pablo on 2012-10-12.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 3 months. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-12.
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Season 2 of Panty & Stocking With Garterbelt will be announced. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-10-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-12.
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GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.
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when i get a girlfriend ( 30% confidence )
Created by shubham on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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My extortionist will reply at all. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
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By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
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DNB/nicotine day 25: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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There still will be queue management outside Topshop Sydney by Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-04; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2012-10-10.
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iPad Mini will launch in September 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Markets ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-09.
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DNB/nicotine day 24: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-09; known on 2012-10-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-09.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 1: placebo then active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-08; known on 2012-10-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.