Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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see ian this week ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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I will be admitted to at least one medical school for the class of 2014. ( 75% confidence )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by mavant on 2014-03-15.
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see Ian friday ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-15.
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HPMoR: I will finish translating 21st chapter (into Polish) by the end of March ( 90% confidence )
Created by jkadlubo on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by jkadlubo on 2014-03-15.
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I will not know the score of the hockey's final before I watch it. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-16; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-14.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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“[O]n March 14th 2014 there will not be any Apple hardware products for sale at JB Hi-Fi stores” Ruslan Kogan ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-03-14; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-14.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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I will finish the CS pset by 3AM ( 50% confidence )
Created by entropy on 2014-03-12; known on 2014-03-13; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-03-13.
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Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by phreeza on 2014-03-13.
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Arsenal will defeat Bayern Munich 3-1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nachlader on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-03-12.
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today will be fun ( 100% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-17.
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A new movement will feature in at least one of the workouts that comprises this year's Crossfit Games Open ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2014-03-11.
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I will see Nashwa next weekend. ( 80% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-03-11; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-03-11.
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I will get to class before the people walking. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-10.
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There will be elections in the province of Quebec this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by Mati on 2014-03-10.
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I'll start a new water withing a few hours ( 90% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-09.
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Activities: FC ( 95% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Sport: TJ ( 94% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: SA ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: PB ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Community: TP ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG Education ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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JK President ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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KA President ( 36% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG President ( 42% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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PG President ( 42% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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90% turnout CI: [3000,5650] ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-03-09.
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Anna will order eggs instead of pancakes. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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Twitch Plays Pokemon will make it to Blackthorn City within 24 hours of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Valuewalk, Forbes: Nokia will sell its mobile business in 2013 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Bitcoin will drop in value over next week ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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I will know between 10 and 20 of the trick listed on this page: http://sahandsaba.com/thirty-python-language-features-and-tricks-you-may-not-know.html ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-09.
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I will drink tea tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-08.
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West Brom will win against Manchester United ( 10% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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West Brom will draw against Manchester United ( 30% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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West Brom will lose to Manchester United ( 60% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-07; known on 2014-03-08; judged right by dgray on 2014-03-08.
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RL Grime's new collab with What So Not was played in Philly. ( 95% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-03-07.
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The AMC10B cut-off for AIME will be 120.0 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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I will qualify for AIME on the 2014 AMC10B ( 42% confidence )
Created by Nix on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Nix on 2014-03-07.
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Leena will agree with me (before March 7th, 2014) that we should start mining the moon. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-07.
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I complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-07.
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Brice will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, social worker) ( 8% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to work on Friday ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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I will not go to the music quiz on Thursday ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by mad on 2014-03-06.
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Tomorrow will be a better day than today ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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I'll go visiting on Wednesday ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-04; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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My spine/back/chest will stop hurting within the week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.