Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for August 2019 to exceed 110 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-20.
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Federal Reserve cuts rate by 25bps on September FOMC meeting ( 90% confidence )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-18; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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Test driven design has started to gain traction in building design ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-09-16; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-09-16.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.6 MMbpd ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in August 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.1 MMbpd ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-09-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-09-15.
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The Belgian federal government formation takes at least three months from the date of the election ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-09-11.
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[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-09-04.