Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 50% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by ctp. Filter by:
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.