Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 58% | 88% | 67% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 31 | 24 | 27 | 23 | 1 | 110 |
Displaying all predictions made by tylercurtis. Filter by:
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.
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Conditional on the interview process lasting until at least 11 AM, D's potential employer will treat em to lunch. ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-11-12; known on 2014-11-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-13.
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I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will watch Episode 4 of F/SN:UBW before Episode 5 airs. ( 70% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-11-09; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-09.
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By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.
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Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-07-28.
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The meeting tomorrow is at the time I think it is. ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28.
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My soylent will have a shorter time between first order and first delivery than D's. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by tylercurtis on 2017-04-09.
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I will go to N's thing tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-25; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25.
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I will visit New York City before the fifth of January ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-23; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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EC will attend Comiket 87. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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My current character in ToME (a dwarf berserker in normal difficulty roguelike mode) will make it to level 20. ( 20% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-10-27; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21.
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There are unlocks in ToME4 that are unlocked via the Arena mode. ( 30% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-17.
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I will attend Comiket 87. ( 90% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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I will manage at least one ascension in this year's /dev/null ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-15; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
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I will die on HabitRPG this month. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-14; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.
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I will be on time for dim sum. ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-10-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-12.
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I will complete the Ana Pana course in Esperanto by December. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
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I will still be regularly working on toy programming project Callan in two months. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08; known on 2014-12-08; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-09.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.
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[LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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[LoL Worlds] At least one Korean team in finals. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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I will have reached a streak of at least 14 on my HabitRPG daily for making predictions on predictionbook at least once by end of October. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-11-02.
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I will catch up on my Mnemosyne reviews by the end of September. ( 5% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-08.
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I will only lose points on the Discrete Math midterm from today for arithmetic errors or not performing as much calculation as desired by the grader. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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drewmm will complete his reading for his class at 3 PM before that class. ( 40% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-31; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by drewmm on 2013-10-31.
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I will receive at least 90% on the Discrete Math midterm from today. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-11-13.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.
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I will fail to follow through on my dinner plans tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-12; known on 2013-10-12; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-10-14.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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My personal website will be up-and-running again by 2014 ( 15% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.
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My personal website will be up-and-running again by the end of the month ( 1% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.
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I will spend at least 5 minutes per day reviewing Anki decks for the remainder of October. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2013-11-04.
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I will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of October (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-11-01; judged right by tylercurtis on 2013-10-15.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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ArenaNet will sponsor a Guild Wars 2 PvP tournament with grand prize valued at at least $100,000 in 2013. ( 66% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-05-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-08-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.