Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by sketerpot. Filter by:
-
Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
'the first flight of SpaceX's Falcon 1e rocket' —Sketerpot ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-14.
-
'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'There will be a second season of High School of the Dead' —Sketerpot ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
-
'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.