Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The US 2016 Presidential election will occur on its currently scheduled Tuesday date. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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hilary clinton will not be elected ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by marcDouglas on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
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Arab Spring 2: The Springening. “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest” Denis Diderot (1713-1784) The final days of the last monarchies on earth. All the Arab monarchs will be violently overthr ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2020-05-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Within three months they will admit to using drones to keep an eye on the suspect who is causing the ruckus in Boston. The suspect that is apparently being hunted for the shooting at MIT I mean. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2013-04-19; known on 2013-07-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2013-07-19.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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Will Iran's regime will end? ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by New on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-11-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-19.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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Another company will come out with a game console next generation thats not Microsoft, Sony, or Nintendo. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.