Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 62% | 75% | 73% | 98% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 29 | 24 | 15 | 63 | 3 | 144 |
Displaying all predictions made by davidmanheim. Filter by:
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A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is launched by November. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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The labor force participation rate will increase above 66% at least once while Trump is on office ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-03-12; known on 2025-03-12.
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The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19.
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No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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US does not withdraw from large trade org like WTO or NAFTA in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-01-02.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
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Trump administration does not initiate extra prosecution of Hillary Clinton (in 2017) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Construction on Mexican border wall (beyond existing barriers) begins in 2017 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Shanghai index will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Dow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Oil will end 2017 lower than $60 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 50% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
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Theresa May remains PM of Britain through 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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No agreement reached on “two-speed EU” in 2017 ( 90% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Keith Ellison chosen as new DNC chair ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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A significant number of believers will not become convinced EMDrive doesn’t work during 2017 if it is not launched by November. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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A significant number of skeptics will not become convinced EMDrive works in 2017 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Situation in Israel looks more worse than better at the end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-11.
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No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a major bug found and exploited in Lightning Networks / Segwit during 2017 (Conditional on deployment before June) ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Lightning Networks AND Segwit will be fully deployed before the end of 2017 ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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I will read at least 30 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 50% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.
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2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4% ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.
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Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01.
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What is today known as the 2016 DNC leak will be generally agreed upon to have been hacked by a Russian Government operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-31; known on 2066-07-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-07.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 1600 at the end of 2016. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 will close below 1750 at the end of 2016. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to below zero levels (i.e. a range that includes below zero levels) at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17.
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Federal Reserve will cut the Federal Funds rate to the [0, 0.25%] range at or before the March 2016 FOMC meeting. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-03-17.
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There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
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There will be at least two more gravitational wave detections announced in 2016 ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.