Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 56% | 46% | 56% | 88% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 32 | 6 | 86 |
Displaying all predictions made by papermachine. Filter by:
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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Homestuck: Jane, Roxy, and Dirk attain God Tier before the beginning of Act 7. ( 40% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-19.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.
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Less than one hundred comments on the uncensored LW thread in a month. http://www.reddit.com/r/LessWrong/comments/17y819/lw_uncensored_thread/ ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-05; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2013-02-07.
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I will not donate any money to SIAI or its associated organizations during Winter 2012 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-03-20; judged right by papermachine on 2013-03-20.
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The first LW Purdue meetup will happen on January 11 ( 60% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by papermachine on 2013-01-11.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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I will find Accel World interesting enough to watch the whole first season. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-20.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.
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Dark Knight Rises will hold a score of 90% or greater on Rottentomatoes.com on July 25th. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-07-15; known on 2012-07-25; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-07-25.
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The picture of an Intel processor on http://www.appliedrationality.org/rationality/ is under copyright and was used without permission. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-03; known on 2013-01-03; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-07-11.
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My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.
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My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.
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The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Turkey will invade Syria ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by modulus on 2012-06-24; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by modulus on 2012-07-15.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
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I will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-05-04; judged right by papermachine on 2012-05-15.
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Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 10% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 20% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 40% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite ( 70% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Of the five remaining dead trolls, at least four of them will be prototyped into fused sprites. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Gamzee didn't go god-tier at all. He just made the outfit/acquired it from one of his alternate timeline selves. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 1337_w0n on 2012-04-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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XiXiDu will not post or comment on LW for one year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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XiXiDu will not comment or post to LW for 5 years, round two. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-16.
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I calculated the mean curvature of a cylinder correctly. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-13; known on 2012-03-13.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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Ares/Mars will make an on-screen appearance in Assassin's Creed 3, as a member of the First Civilization. ( 10% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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Assassin's Creed 3 will be available in the United States by October 31, 2012 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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I will earn 300 dollars worth of bitcoin by the end of the month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-02-28.
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The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.
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Kevin's diet (see comments for link) will work for Eliezer Yudkowsky (formally, lose at least 10 pounds in a year). If EY never adopts the diet, this prediction is wrong. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-25; known on 2013-02-15.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.
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Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.
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Chris Hayes gets his own show on MSNBC before 2014. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-16.
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“Michele Bachmann to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
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The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.
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LW user 'Zed' is Zed Shaw. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-04; known on 2011-07-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-05.
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“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
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Haruki Murakami for 2011 Literature Nobel ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by ka on 2011-10-06.
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Tyrion will not die in A Dance With Dragons. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-21.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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'The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven [in ZFC]' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.