Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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'The unemployment rate in the United States will continue to be above 8%: 90%' —CronoDAS ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Yahoo will spin off/sell Flickr in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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katla volcano will not erupt in 2011 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'General AI will not be made in 2011.' —JoshuaZ ( 97% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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I will publish another article on my site this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Cuba to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Sudan to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“An internationally recognised Palestinian state to be established before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Hamas accepts Israel's right to exist before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Rupert Murdoch to depart as CEO of News Corp before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“David Cameron to no longer be Prime Minister before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1800 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Andy Coulson to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Rebekah Brooks to be charged with any criminal offence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Greek will default / there will be a credit event relating to greek govt bonds ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-06-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Stranger will claim to live in London. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-31; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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“Bird Flu (H5N1) to be confirmed in the USA before midnight ET on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.