Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by nathanpmyoung. Filter by:
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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Boris Johnson will still be in post by the time of the next general election ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-06-09.
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Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.