Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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“Polls show more people support the leading Democrat than the leading Republican” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2020-03-17.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 31 to 40 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 31 to 40 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 1 to 10 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.
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[The Economist predicts:] 'Parasite' wins best picture at the Oscars ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-15.
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Trump has the coronavirus ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-03-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-15.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.
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Doomslayer from Doom is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Medea on 2020-03-13.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.
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[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-13.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] February 2019 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of February 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2020 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] any other candidate ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Michigan winner to be] Joe Biden ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] February ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-03-10.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-03-08.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-03-07.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-04.