Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 57% | 64% | 71% | 29% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 11 | 7 | 7 | 41 | 4 | 77 |
Displaying all predictions made by Larks. Filter by:
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Appeals court in Perugia will not increase the sentences of Knox and Sollecito. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'Existing currencies are abolished. The “mega-watt-hour” becomes the universal unit of exchange.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
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'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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'16 nanometer chips are in mass production' by 2014 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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British forces withdrawn from Afghanistan by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within a year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-18.
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Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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PredictionBook will be successful in years to come ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by GlobalWeeklyFashionGuide on 2010-05-25; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-06.
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Barack Obama wins the presidential elections in 2012. ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SilentWarrior on 2010-09-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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The current UK coalition government will last until the end of 2010 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by benj on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“While president, Obama will announce support for means testing Social Security” —James Miller ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-20.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“U.S. private reserves may run out by 2015” —CISFHR ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.
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“Hurricanes in Florida will be less in 2005-2015, than the average of the preceding three decades” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.
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“Steve Jobs will be nominated for Presdident of the United States, by one of the two major political parties in 2012.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-06.
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“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
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“By 2012, the Wall Street Journal and the New York Times will have referred to Russia as “the world leader in software development” or words to that effect.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks on 2010-07-22; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius on 2010-07-21; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by koenfucius on 2010-12-31.
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Will this prediction have an average prediction of less than 50%? (The only way to be right is if more people predict the opposite of you) ( 49% confidence; 31 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JFE on 2010-07-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JFE on 2011-01-06.
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Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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I will pass my Mods ( 99% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2010-07-16; judged right by Larks on 2010-07-22.
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I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-23.
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Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-19.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
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This website's statistics will show that people pick percentages with a '2' in them anomalously often- presumably due to priming from the 'my 2 cents' ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-17; known on 2010-01-16; judged wrong by Larks on 2010-01-16.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of Goldman Sacks. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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One year after he leaves or is forced to leave his position as the U.S. Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner will be a full-time employee of a financial institution that has over $10 billion in assets. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-06.
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The President of the Czech Republic will sign the Lisbon Treaty before the end of June, 2010. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by Cyan on 2009-11-10.
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Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
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The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.
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US Unemployment Rate in Dec 2009 will be greater than 10.00% ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged wrong by Matt on 2010-01-25.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.