Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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Tech – OnePlus Nord is released by deadline and has a 90Hz refresh rate screen in all models. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-25.
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Politics, US – Someone is charged in relation to car driven into protestors on Interstate 5 in Seattle on the 4th of July 2020 by end of July. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-06.
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Personal – I weigh less than 63kg by the end of July. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 on a day in July. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-01.
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COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 900 for a day in July. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-04; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-08.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Politics, US – Geoffrey Berman, the US Attorney in Manhattan, resigns or is fired by the end of July 2020. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21.
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Tech – Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces a version of Xcode for at least some devices running iOS or iPadOS during WWDC. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Apple announces at least one new smart speaker model whose price is below $299 during WWDC. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-30.
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Tech – Apple announces an ARM-based device running macOS for launch in 2020 at WWDC 2020. ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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COVID, US – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 1600. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Politics, US – Officers placed on unpaid leave in Buffalo, in relation to the hospitalisation of a 75-year old man, are criminally charged in relation to this action by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID – Worldwide daily deaths for a day in June exceed 5800. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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COVID, UK – For at least one day in June, daily deaths exceed 400. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-02.
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Politics, US – Trump loses the US Presidential Election in 2020, and then either delays inauguration of his successor beyond the end of January 2020 or enacts a policy/declaration they describe as intended to do so. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-05; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I exercise by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-31; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-31.
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Politics, US – Section 215 of the Patriot Act renewed by end of June 2020. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – An executive order is issued requesting the FCC issue a statement or regulation 'clarifying' when takedowns under Section 230 are in good faith, and the FCC does so, prior to the start of November 2020 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-11-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Politics, US – One or more police officers arrested or has a case brought to a grand jury in connection with death of George Floyd by end of June 2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-29.
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Politics, US – US changes export control regulations to treat Hong Kong equivalently to mainland China before end of June 2020. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, US – US removes all privileges afforded Hong Kong by the United-States Hong Kong Policy Act of 1992 before end of June 2020. ( 8% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.
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Politics, UK – Dominic Cummings resigns or is fired from their job, or changes position or title, before end of June 2020. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May, and successfully delivers them to the ISS. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020, and does not include headphones/earphones in the box in the base model. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Tech – iPhone 12 releases in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, India – Dr Sudhakar Rao released from mental hospital by end of May. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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Tech – LG releases a “swivel” two-screen smartphone which unfolds into a T shape by end of 2020 ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Politics, UK – Court action for evictions is suspended further beyond the 25th of June. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – Scottish government states that people can visit friends at their homes again by end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-20.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish making Anki cards for and reading chapters 5 and 6 of “An Introduction to Godel's Theorems” by the end of the 23rd of May. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-05-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish reading and making Anki cards for four more MIRI papers by end of May 2020. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – Government announces quarantine of newly arrived air passengers by end of May. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-15.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – “The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (4)” requirement to close premises and businesses is revoked or amended, or the list of affected businesses in Schedule 2 is amended, by end of May. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full or amended by end of May. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics UK – The Health Protection (Coronavirus, Restrictions) (England) Regulations 2020 (6) restrictions on movement are lifted in full by end of May. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Business, UK – Greene King announces that it will not charge its pub landlords rent for at least some period of the COVID-19 closures by end of July. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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Politics, UK – General instruction to all pubs to close is rescinded by end of July 2020. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-02.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Politics, UK – More than 50% of the UK's schools are open on the 1st of June 2020 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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Personal – I weigh in below 67kg by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-22.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Germany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least two packets of pasta of any variety. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Personal – My shopping order arriving 2020-03-29 arrives with at least 4 bottles of any variety of cola from the order. Dr Pepper counts. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces, before the end of April, it will bring forward payments under “(COVID-19) Self-employment Income Support Scheme” to earlier than June, or introduce an additional scheme helping the self-employed. ( 38% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Politics, UK – Government introduces a government managed rationing system for any consumer good before end of April. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Health, UK – UK government amends lockdown rules to put a specific numeric upper limit on distance travelled from home during exercise before end of April. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-28; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco continue to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, but on checking on the 31st of March, there are no available slots on or before the 14th of April. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-31; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Business, UK – Tesco cease to offer online delivery to the general public, without restrictions on who qualifies, by end of March. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Politics, UK – Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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World – Opening of Olympic Games delayed beyond end of July. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-04-02.
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Politics, UK – UK government announces additional measures to support the self-employed by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] Brexit-with-a-deal having taken place ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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World – Will one or more cases of COVID-19 be described as plausible or likely to have occurred in North Korea in the BBC by end of month March. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Politics, US – SCOTUS upholds the fifth circuit's judgement in June Medical Services v. Russo. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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Politics, US – In deciding June Medical Services v. Russo, SCOTUS explicitly overrules its ruling in Whole Women’s Health v. Hellerstedt, declaring it should have been decided otherwise. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-06; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-29.
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Health, UK – Government issues general advice to cancel all events over a certain size at any point before deadline. Still counts if there are provisos like “where possible” or “unless unavoidable” attached. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-28.
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Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.
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Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-05.
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Health – Before the end of 2024 at least two public health agencies claim that COVID-19 more likely than not originated from a laboratory. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Politics – Turkish military forces engage in conflict with Syrian, Russian, or Syrian government-allied militia forces inside Syria by deadline. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Academia, UK – Dr Jeremy Morris resigns or otherwise leaves their position as master of Trinity Hall, Cambridge by deadline. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-04-19.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
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Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully completes emergency crew rescue test before deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before 2020-01-18 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-19.
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Personal – I weigh in at below 80kg on or before 2020-01-25. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-21.