Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 0% | 67% | 100% | 90% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 5 | 27 |
Displaying all predictions made by Larklight. Filter by:
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.
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AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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Luke will finish his meta-ethics sequence on LW in 2012. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.