Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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I will have 1000 Anki cards in my compounds deck by the time I play two week's worth of Baldr Sky ( 80% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-20.
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“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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I will be able to solve a rubix cube in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds by July ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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Tchaikovsky was a known drug addict. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Leo on 2012-02-20.
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The Drexler group escaped from the lab because they believed the self destruct system would work and prevent a grey goo scenario. (Baldr Sky) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18; known on 2012-03-03; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-18.
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GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-18.
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“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.
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“I will place in the top 5 for the Quantified Health Prize” —Kevin ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-02-18.
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Singularity Institute's new website design will go live before February 16, 2012. ( 70% confidence )
Created by lukeprog on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-02-17.
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GJP: #1077 Will Egypt officially announce by 15 February 2012 that it is lifting* its travel ban on Americans currently in Egypt? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 4 weeks ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 3 weeks ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-17.
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I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.
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My comment on Shiny Ogre's blog will be approved in 24 hours. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-02-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-17.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.
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There will be one sitting of Phantasmagoria of Flower View in the next month where I will go positive against Drakeryn. (Sitting = More than 5 matches where Merlin is not picked) ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-02-22; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-15.
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Drakeryn gets shot by Chris or gets lynched next Touhou mafia day (numbers) ( 60% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-14; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-02-15.
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GJP: #1079 Who will win the 2012 Venezuela presidential primary for a unified opposition candidate to Hugo Chavez? Henrique Capriles Radonski ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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I will get a B in my LinAlg class. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-14.
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'Multiple Wikileaks alternatives will pop up, and pundits will start to realize that mass leaks are enabled by technology trends, not just by one freaky Australian dude.' —FtT ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-14.
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Night 42: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.
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“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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Vi tager på staden før vi går iseng ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by OptiMind on 2012-02-13.
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Night 41: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-12.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-12.
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Lopen has not done an hour of grammar today ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-02-12.
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The DirectTV guy won't be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 30% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11.
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My armodafinil shipment will arrive within 1 week ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.
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Night 40: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-11.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.
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I got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz. ( 100% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.
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I got a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.
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I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.
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I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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'The FCC’s recently-announced network neutrality rules will continue to attract criticism from both ends of the political spectrum, and will be the subject of critical hearings in the Republican House, but neither Congress nor the courts will overturn the ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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Night 39: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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I will pass the Institute of Actuaries' entry exam. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-10.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.
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My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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Recompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-10.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) for at least another six months. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.
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Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.