Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Britain will still be part of the EU in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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J's brother will join JB ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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JH will get a baritone by September ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will still be using PB by October ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will get a new computer by October ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-20; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will have over 300 predictions by 2016 ( 34% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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I will be a Worm character for Halloween ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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Below 10% of my predictions by 2016 will be about numbers of predictions ( 95% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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Below 10% of my predictions will be meta-predictions by 2016 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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My income will be 10% higher than it is now. ( 40% confidence )
Created by iajrz on 2015-09-23; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by iajrz on 2016-01-16.
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My total debt will be 500 USD lower than it is now. ( 90% confidence )
Created by iajrz on 2015-09-23; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by iajrz on 2016-01-16.
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All three of us will get a passing grade on tomorrow's exam ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-16.
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Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.
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I will not talk on freenode until 2016-01-15 12:00 UTC ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-15.
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Roshith will be back in college in 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshith on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-12-24; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
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I'll be able to stick to my 2015 New Year resolution of 'no potato chips or french fries' till Dec 31, 2015. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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War between india & pakistan 2015 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13.
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Why Apple Will Hit $1,650 by the End of 2015 and earn $610 billion revenue —Eric Jackson, Forbes ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-13.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-13.
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The S&P 500 will fall by more than 1% on January 11, 2016 ( 87% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-12.
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After the end of this phone call with Vayama, I will be able to successfully book my flight tickets on their website the first time I try to do so. ( 60% confidence )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-11.
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At least one image generated by Deeplearning neaural networks will have seizure-causing effects in >0.1% of human population by 2016 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Houshalter on 2016-01-11.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall by more than 2% on Monday, January 11, 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11.
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HP MoR: An event will take place between May 14th and May 16th which either narrowly invokes or narrowly avoids Professor McGonagall's ch.17 threat to “string [Harry] up by the gates of Hogwarts with [his] own intestines and pour fire down [his] throat.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Ten wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.
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JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10.
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New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2016. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.
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After 10:00 EST today, I will not board a plane for the rest of the year. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lissy on 2015-12-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-01-10.
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Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner will attempt to stay in office through extra-legal means past her term in office. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-10.
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Oculus Rift preorders will begin before January 31, 2016 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Free over the air TV will survive until 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Aereo will go out of business before Fox goes off the air ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Google won't offer high speed internet in more than 3 cities by Jan 1 2016 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Winter Steam sale will have a discount of at least 20% on Fallout 4. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by timujin on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-02-03; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.
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Blizzard will release Hearthstone for Windows Phone by the end of this year ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.
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California will experience a magnitude 6.0 earthquake or stronger in 2015 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-08-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-01-07.