Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
Displaying all predictions made by adanvers. Filter by:
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Twitter ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-19; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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The 7-day moving average of Covid deaths (as tracked by the New York Times) will be less than 1000 people on April 4, 2022. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-04-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-10.
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BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.
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eth at 5k+ in a year ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-20.
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Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31.
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Alaska bill SB140, which “would ban trans girls and women from participating in sports in accordance with their gender identity” will pass in 2022. ( 75% confidence )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-04.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
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Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.