Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 0% | 0% | 63% | 100% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | 65 | 84 |
Displaying all predictions made by deleteyourbrain. Filter by:
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] extraditing Meng Wanzhou to US ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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I will not masturbate for 2 days. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-04.
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I will not masturbate for 1 day. ( 50% confidence )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-03.
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Terry Davis wrote the bitcoin white paper between two “soda runs”. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-30; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern Branwen will overdose on mead and dark choclate. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern Branwen is going to have a menage a trois with Issa Rice and Vipul Naik and he is going to write an article about his experience including ggplot2 graphs. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.
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E. Yudkowsky will undergo “endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty”. Despite the surgery he will gain weight. Gwern will advise him to try a kettlebell workout. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Scott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern is still living with his relatives. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.
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The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-29.
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gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-24.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known on 2019-05-27; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2019-05-27.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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A smart personal assistant will be available within 5 years ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dori on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-09-03.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.
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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.