Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bitcoin/USD prices: “best case, 10 bucks. Worst case, 5 bucks.” —kiba ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 3.0 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2030 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The Yellowstone Supervolcano will have a magmatic eruption before 2023 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will receive <10 pull requests for the GitHub repo for gwern.net. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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I will receive <10 items of anonymous feedback on my form. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2012-01-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-27.
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If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.
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Day 8: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-25; known on 2011-12-25; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-25.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.
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The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Day 7: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-21.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by nohat on 2012-08-21.
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Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
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Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.
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Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
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Day 6: pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-20; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-20.
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GJP: #1054 Will a North Korean or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter South Korea before 1 June 2012? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-01.
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GJP: #1050 Will the next Palestinian general election commence by 1 June 2012? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.
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GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1053 By 31 December 2012, will the UK officially announce its intention* to withdraw from the EU? ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Day 5: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2011-12-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.
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GJP: #1048 Will S&P downgrade the AAA long-term credit rating of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF) by 30 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-03-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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GJP: #1049 Will Asif Ali Zardari resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of President of Pakistan before 1 June 2012? ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.
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GJP: #1047 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Iran before 1 September 2012? ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-01.
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GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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GJP: #1043 Will Lucas Papademos resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Greece before 1 March 2012? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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GJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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GJP: #1034 Will Japan officially become a member of the Trans-Pacific Partnership before 1 March 2012? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-03.
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GJP: #1035 Will the United Nations Security Council pass a new resolution concerning Iran by 1 April 2012? ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1036 Will media reports indicate that Iraq has experienced a military coup (or attempted coup) before 1 June 2012? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-02.
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GJP: #1037 Will Greece remain a member of the EU through 1 June 2012? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-02.
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GJP: #1040 Will Aleksandr Lukashenko remain president of Belarus through 30 June 2012? ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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GJP: #1027 Who will win the January 2012 Taiwan Presidential election? (Ma Ying-jeou of the KMT) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-20.
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GJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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GJP: #1025 Will the Freedom and Justice Party win at least 20 percent of the seats in the first People's Assembly (Majlis al-Sha’b) election in post-Mubarak Egypt? ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1009: By 1 January 2012 will the Iraqi government sign a security agreement that allows US troops to remain in Iraq? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the “accession package” for WTO membership for Russia? ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1006: Will Italy restructure or default on its debt by 31 December 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1003: Will Serbia be officially granted EU candidacy by 31 December 2011? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1001: Will the Six-Party talks (among the US, North Korea, South Korea, Russia, China, and Japan) formally resume in 2011? ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-30.
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GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011? ( 7% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-14.
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Day 4: pill was modafinil. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-14.
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If Romney wins the Republican candidacy, then Obama will publicly offer him a bet sometime during the 2012 presidential campaign. This prediction will be withdrawn if the antecedent proposition is false. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Day 3: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-13.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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Day 2: pill was modafinil ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-12.
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Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-05-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-20.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Day 1: pill was modafinil. ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-10.
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Subversion will not be released by 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.
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I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.
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James Randi will live to be 93 years old. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-05; known on 2021-08-07; judged wrong by gav on 2020-11-10.
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Logos01 will commit suicide in 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-05; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-05.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2041. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2021. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-01-02.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2041. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2040. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2020. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.