Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 66% | 61% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 42 | 107 | 90 | 80 | 154 | 10 | 483 |
Displaying all predictions made by ioannes. Filter by:
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I finish Infinite Jest by June 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.
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Trump solo press conference in March 2017 ( 25% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-04-01.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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The United States will be at war by the end of the year ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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Peter Singer actually wasn't no-platformed in March 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-08; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-10.
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One+ date this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-13; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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Two+ dates this week ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-03-13; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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I stay at the Montara Lighthouse this weekend ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-02; known on 2017-03-06; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-06.
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At least one Trump solo press conference in March 2017. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-02; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan payment > $1500 ( 66% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-04-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-03.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.
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Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Moana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Politics – More than 10,000 protesters marching in Washington DC on Monday 23rd January ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-24.
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Trump gives another solo press conference in February 2017 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-17; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
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Transcripts or recordings of conversations between Trump campaign staffers & Russian citizens are published (or linked to) in the New York Times by July 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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“Logan” rotten tomatoes aggregate score is < 80% ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-15; known on 2017-03-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-15.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Oroville Dam breaks or overflows in 2017. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-02.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by February 1 2018 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-02-01.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by December 1 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by July 1 2017 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.
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I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I go on three or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I go on two or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I purchase a computer in 2017 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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I go on at least one date from 2017-02-06 to 2017-03-01 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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Arrival wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 30% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
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Hacksaw Ridge wins 2017 Oscar for best picture ( 10% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by trishume on 2017-02-28.
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Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged right by penten on 2017-02-27.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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A year from now, I will be unable to remember the plot of “The Nix” ( 55% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-30; known on 2018-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-30.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds at least one of Obama's executive orders relating to non-discrimination against LGBT people before end of February 2017. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-03-01.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The other boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27.
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One of Scott Gottleib, Jim O’Neill, or Balaji Srinavasan become FDA commissioner by April 1st 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-26; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-01.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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I go to Hearst Castle this weekend ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-30; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-30.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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Politics – President Trump signs an executive order ordering research into, preparatory work for, or work on border fencing or walls before the end of 2017-01-27 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-01-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-01-25.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >1000 people in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (European Union, UK, US, Japan, Australia) will kill >500 people in 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-17.
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Arrive in Santa Barbara before sunset tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-22; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Motorcycle crash or breakdown on trip to San Diego ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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Motorcycle crash on trip to San Diego ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-23; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-22.
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My boat gets in a difficult situation next Thursday (“difficult situation” = run aground, crash, man overboard, medical emergency onboard, etc.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-20; known on 2017-01-27; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-27.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Books 2016 Q4 published by February 1 2017 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Trump calls out at least one specific performer for refusing to participate in his inauguration ceremony on twitter. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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Trump tweets at least one tweet about how great the performances at his inauguration ceremony will be / are / were. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2017-02-10; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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2016 Q4 books post published by end of this weekend ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-16.
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I go to Bolinas this weekend ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-15.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-02-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-15.
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I go on an OKC date next week ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-19.
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lvl 3 in January 2017 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Hillary Clinton is forced (called) to testify about private email server before the general election. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-05; known on 2016-11-09.
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Linchuang Zhang will donate more than $10,000 to charity in the period between June 30, 2015, and June 30, 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-07-01.
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If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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I go to Lalibela this summer ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-30; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-09-24.
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Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.