Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.
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s is running an old youtube-dl ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-08.
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Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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I will get married before 30 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2030-09-09.
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I will be married before 2025 (age ~35.5) ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-09; known on 2025-01-01.
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
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Ubuntu 17.10 released ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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iPhone SE 32GB will be returned within a week of receipt ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-26.
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TheDAO drainer is a state agency, such as the CIA ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-06-18.
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I will step on Mars before I die ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2117-01-01.
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I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-12-31.
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A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.
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No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Macron will win the French 2020 elections ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Before 2018, Bret Weinstein will be banned (even temporarily) from Patreon for “hate speech” ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2021-06-03.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-31; known on 2020-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25; known on 2018-12-31.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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c will livestream Mushroom 11 before May 24 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-24.
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Zuckerberg runs for POTUS, takes part in primaries for one of {Republican, Democrat} party and lasts to be at least in top 5 candidates ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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McDonalds Germany will have served vegan burgers in their restaurants by the end of 2017. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by maxra on 2017-05-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by maxra on 2018-01-02.
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Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-02; known on 2027-05-02.
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I will have > 10,000 lines of Elixir before 2018 ( 87% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-17.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Velvet Scarlatina will appear in Season 2 of RWBY Chibi, voiced by Caiti Ward. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-27.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Before 2018 I will put Persona 5 on my short list of favorite single-player games ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Ubuntu 17.10 comes with version 1.8+ of golang ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Bad page state issue is caused by something else ( 13% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by recent Ubuntu LTS Linux 4.4 kernel patches ( 14% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by ZFS ( 6% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by BFQ patch ( 11% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by VMware Workstation ( 16% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Bad page state issue is caused by VirtualBox ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-18; known on 2017-03-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-19.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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I will not watch another episode of Billions until 2018 ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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S3 us-east will be down for more than 16 hours from the start of the outage ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-28; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-01.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.
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I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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My brain inflammation will subside before 2017-02-22 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-02-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-20.
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I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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I go on at least one date from 2017-02-06 to 2017-03-01 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-07; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-10.
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“the Milo shtick by 2020 will be to come out as straight, healed by the soothing words of Mike Pence, or something” ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.