Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 50% | 76% | 63% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 33 | 1 | 91 |
Displaying all predictions made by enolan. Filter by:
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2022-01-31.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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at least one of my housemates will catch covid-19 in the next two weeks ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.
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I have covid-19 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.
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I will release a blog post or other publication about this portfolio margin idea before EOY 2020 ( 10% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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Coda's mainnet will launch by EOY 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CoreyS on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 31st. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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S&P 500 index dips below 2000 in year of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-27; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known on 2019-07-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tumblr user the-real-numbers has not found a regularity in SHA-256 based on neural networks. ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2018-06-22; known on 2018-06-29.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will still think Ouroboros is a bad design in six months ( 70% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by enolan on 2019-08-21.
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My donation will arrive in time for me to be included in the CEA donor lottery ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-24; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-23.
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My date proposal will be rejected ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-21.
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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OpenAI Five will win the upcoming benchmark match ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-07-24; known on 2018-08-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-08-05.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-07-08; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-07-09.
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I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in one month ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-05-08; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-05-09.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-24.
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Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-10-11.
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One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-02-27; known on 2018-03-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-03-27.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-06.
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Microsoft will not buy Valve ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-01-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by enolan on 2018-07-30.
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A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.
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For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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I will publish a paper within 3 years concerning generalizing the classical Jordan-Schur theorem. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-30.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.