Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge ( 3% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: “Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: There will be live-action at some point in Rebuild. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk) ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Humans can be permanently turned into house-elves ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2016-02-02.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.