Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 0% | 50% | 67% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by _W_. Filter by:
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Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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The first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th ( 55% confidence )
Created by _W_ on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-11-21; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-11-21.
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Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.
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Price of bitcoin to reach $10 before June 20. on MtGox ( 75% confidence )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-06-20.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“Congress will pass an electronic privacy bill along the lines of the principles set out by the Digital Due Process Coalition.” —FfT ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-02-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-13.