Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Anderson Silva will announce his retirement from UFC by January 1st, 2016 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2016-01-02.
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Body fat % down to 15% per average of skin caliper method, Barry Sears “Enter the Zone” metric method, and electronic scales method by end of 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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I will own Mini Metro at noon on 1/1/2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk) ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-05-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
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Nintendo will release an official Pokemon RPG on Android by the end of 2015 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2014-04-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
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They won't be able to upload a honey bee brain into a robot insectoid by end of 2015 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Apple will still use intel CPUs in Macs in 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2015 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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If Star Wars VII is released in 2015, then it will have a higher RottenTomatoes score than 'The Phantom Menace' at the end of 2015. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2016-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Australia will have legalized same-sex marriage by 2016 in some/all states. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.
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Use of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.
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A team will win the Google Lunar X PRIZE grand prize before the end of 2015 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Facebook's 2015 revenues will be >$28 billion —Adam Rifkin, TechCrunch ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is complete control of matter at the atomic level. Within a few years, because they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Wooly mammoth resurrected by 2016. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'10 nanometre chips enter mass production' ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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I will stay sober until the end of 2015 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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I will start a new relationship by the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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I will be hospitalised at some point by the end of the year ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.
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Apple will buy Hulu. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.