Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Either of my haiku will win the ANN contest (either as top-ranked haiku or as the randomly selected entry) ( 1% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.
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My house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.
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My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.
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My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.
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Either of my haiku will make the top 25 of the ANN contest ( 7% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-26.
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Mike Darwin will post part 4 of his diet series before or during Wednesday (EST). ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-21; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25.
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“Steve Jobs to depart as CEO of Apple before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-24.
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Despite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-08-24; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 16 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 15 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 14 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 12 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 11 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 10 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 9 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 8 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 6 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 5 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 3 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 2 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 1 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was Charles Simonyi ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was Peter Thiel. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was Bezos. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was either Bezos, Thiel, or Simonyi. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Darwin's employer was one of the 6 named billionaires. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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Roger Ver will not create a Longbets about his Bitcoin>gold/silver prediction within a month. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-08; known on 2011-09-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-21.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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I will win the LW SRS contest. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-01; known on 2011-08-19; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-19.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.
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Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama elected president in 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Solvent on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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I will find a frame at a reasonable price for my large painting. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cadbar on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-08-17; judged wrong by cadbar on 2011-08-17.