Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 71% | 31% | 100% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 21 | 13 | 7 | 33 | 3 | 89 |
Displaying all predictions made by krazemon. Filter by:
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Conditional on winning the primary, Andrew Yang wins the NYC mayoral election. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-11-02.
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Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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If SpaceX's SN10 launch happens today, it will land successfully, defined as upright and with no explosions. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-03-03; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-04.
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I weigh <=175 pounds on April 1st, 2021. ( 65% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-01.
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I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-11.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] >200 million. ( 1% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 129 and 200 million (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] between 76 and 128 million (inclusive). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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[As of March 31st, the number of total estimated cases of COVID-19 in the US will be (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/)] <40 million. ( 4% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31.
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Fewer than 40 million total cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. will be estimated as of March 31st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 4% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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9 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of June 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-02-24; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
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150 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered by June 1st (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/us or an alternative if this goes away). ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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100 million first doses of COVID vaccines administered in Biden’s first 100 days, i.e. as of April 30th, 2021 (as measured by this tracker: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/covid-vaccine-tracker-global-distribution/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Enough doses of COVID vaccines to inoculate 100 million people in the US distributed on or after August 1st (as measured by GJP: https://goodjudgment.io/covid/dashboard/). ( 15% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-05-31; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-31.
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China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Number of people in the world living in extreme global poverty is below 743,336,050 (as measured by https://worldpoverty.io/map) on January 1st, 2022. ( 95% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Conditional on his participation, Andrew Yang wins the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 30% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-06-23.
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Andrew Yang participates (competes) in the primary for the NYC mayoral election. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-06-22; judged right by krazemon on 2021-06-22.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $2k ( 25% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $1k ( 55% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $500 ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $200 ( 95% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $20k ( 70% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
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Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.
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First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX starship has a successful test launch in which it lands without major issues (defined as causing enough damage to the ship that it can’t be reused) in 2021. ( 60% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-02-01.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.
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Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Arizona's daily new COVID cases count will be >=6000, as measured by Google's tracker: https://g.co/kgs/8UHaz1, on July 11, 2020. ( 75% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 20 years. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2039-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2024-09-15.
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OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Andrew Cuomo will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win the NY gubernatorial election. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Larry Sharpe will win >10% of the vote in the upcoming NY gubernatorial election. ( 33% confidence )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-02-01.
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Amazon will acquire Boston Dynamics, and this will be publicly announced before the end of 2019 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.