Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 62% | 67% | 80% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 13 | 3 | 5 | 23 | 5 | 52 |
Displaying all predictions made by Sniffnoy. Filter by:
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Book 2 of Unsong will end with an interlude this week (September 7). ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05; known on 2016-09-08; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-07.
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[UNSONG] The Visitor in the Ark is Sarah the Laptop ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-15; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-03.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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“Skulk” will be an evergreen keyword in Magic: The Gathering within 3 years. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2019-04-04; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion Eldritch Moon. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-07-09.
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OOTS: The Monster in the Darkness is an Uvuudaum. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2026-02-28.
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Unsong: Sohu is the Comet King's daughter. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29; known on 2018-02-28; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-09-05.
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Wizards of the Coast will announce a new “From the Vault” Magic set on Monday, February 29th. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-04; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.
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The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.
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Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Grave Scrabbler will be reprinted in the Magic: The Gathering expansion “Shadows Over Innistrad”. ( 64% confidence )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-07; known on 2016-04-02; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-25.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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[OOTS] O-Chul will be alive the next time we see or hear of him ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-04-07; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-30.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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As of 2012-12-21, the OPERA neutrino anomaly at CERN will not have been reproduced by anyone, anywhere. ( 87% confidence; 14 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-18.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Grrrr on 2012-12-31.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.
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EU to dissolve by 2040. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.