Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by sabs81. Filter by:
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Politics – Either the US or the Taliban have declared the deal of end of February 2020 as no longer in effect by deadline. Complaints which do not amount to announcing the failure/cancellation/own intent to indefinitely renege on the deal do not qualify. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Effective Altruism – EA Global 2020 in SF is rescheduled to start on a date other than the 20th of March 2020 or cancelled. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-03-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-14.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by June 1, 2020 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by May 1, 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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10000+ cases of coronavirus confirmed by CDC in USA by April 1, 2020 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by suitecake on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by suitecake on 2020-03-21.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] December ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] November ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] October ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] September ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] August ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] July ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] June ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] May ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2021-01-01.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] April ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-12-17.
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[The day in 2020 with the most new coronavirus COVID-19 deaths will be in] March ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-02-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-04-02.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.