Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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I will go to San Francisco tomorrow. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-03.
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ASOIAF : Zrrerra snyyf gb fyniref, Zvffnaqrv rafynirq ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25.
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ASOIAF : Wbua Fabj unf Gnetnelra oybbq naq qbrf abg ohea sebz qentbaf ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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Asoiaf: Neln Fgnex vf encrq ol gur znal snprq tbq. ( 42% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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War in Venezuela and/or Venezuela invaded by one of its neighbours ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2022-02-28.
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Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2022-01-01.
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Mom and I go to Point Reyes this weekend ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Computer Scientists obsolete ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-27; known on 2036-04-27.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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A male or female friend of mine will marry a man, only to have it revealed later that he's transitioning to being a woman [in that order] ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2066-01-01.
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First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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None of the hackathon (Consensus 2016) winners include a threat model as part of their entry. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2017-01-01.
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Localbitcoins was really incompetent enough to store username/passwords in a way that they could be retrieved, plaintext and the hack on /r/btc right now is real ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25.
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A confirmed detection of an ET Civlization ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-22; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26.
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William Bennett imprisoned in 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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Abrupt drop off found in space dust sizes above 2.176 × 10E−5 g ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-21; known on 2400-01-01.
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Russia Bans Bitcoin ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Dr K on 2018-01-07.
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tuition higher on jan 1 2016 than jan 1 2015 in canada ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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More mergers & acquisitions in bitcoin in 2017 than any previous year ( 57% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will make it to the police station today in time ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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90% of web traffic will be images ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Either Graphene EMI Shielding or one of the other 85 “key technologies” is successfully put on market by at least one Korean firm ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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8 million accounts on ripple networks ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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intel 10nm 'tick' release ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.
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Law Students commonly use IBM's Watson ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Peteris on 2018-01-01.
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macron president 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Burr And Feinstein Anti-Perfect-Forward-Encryption bill passes ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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Sandia 10MW CO2 turbine tests success ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2019-10-01.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Ampyx prototype AP3 deployed for testing ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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Bank of Canada increases overnight rate over 2.5% in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Over 30% of Canadians 2 payments or more behind on mortgage payments at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Commercially available hard disks utilize heat-assisted magnetic recording ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2018-01-01.
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Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.
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Canada's Federal NDP will adopt the LEAP manifesto as official party policy ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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24% or more of coral reefs in asia are gone relative to 2007 ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01.
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I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 ( 92% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02.
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Avogadro project fixes value of the Kilogram before Planck constant is set in 2017 ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Construction & housing in the heart of “Grand Paris” project starts by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.
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Republican candidate loses general election with 191 votes. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Twitter will continue to exist without having been acquired through 2020-01-01. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-04-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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6183331e9007a573863190a476a3abb8 quits SaskTel ( 43% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-06-01.
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At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-04-20.
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SaskTel privatized ( 21% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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STC is privatized ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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SaskTel lays off at least 100 full time employees. ( 32% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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SaskTel is legislated back to work as “Essential Services” ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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SaskTel goes on strike ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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UK Police will have the ability to scan people's faces from their cars as they drive past, as they do with License plates ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-07-10.
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Clinton chooses Michael B. Coleman as running mate. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) by the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-04-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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The Anthropocene Working Group decides Anthropocene is a true geologic epoch ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-01.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Iraqi government will retake Mosul from Islamic State this year. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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Before May 2017 there will be a sub-$1000 (USD, pre-tax/shipping) VR HMD with >= 2K pixels (either direction) per eye, shipping to at least some of the general public ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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Planet Nine will turn out to actually exist ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by artir on 2016-03-24; known on 2018-01-01.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-16.
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Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Debian Stretch goes Stable ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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Young girls will stop gossiping in Saskatoon ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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At least one of my Inter-Library Loan requests come in while I'm out of the city travelling ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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My upcoming train trip is delayed over 6.5 hours. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-22.
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Soyuz TMA-20M spacecraft carrying the International Space Station crew of cosmonauts Alexey Ovchinin and Oleg Skripochka and astronaut Jeffrey Williams will reach ISS. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-17; known on 2016-03-18; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19.
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Green Party MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 ( 24% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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Liberal MLA elected in Saskatchewan Election 2016 ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.
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NDP minority government in Saskatchewan Provincial Election 2016 ( 0% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-05.