Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by refragable. Filter by:
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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montgomery will defeat petterb in both of their dailygammon.com error rate tournament matches. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2010-01-01.
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I will bill 20+ hours the first week of November, 2009. ( 30% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-08; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-08.
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I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-01.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.