Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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Trump will be reelected. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by subra on 2019-05-09; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Terry Davis wrote the bitcoin white paper between two “soda runs”. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-30; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern Branwen will overdose on mead and dark choclate. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern Branwen is going to have a menage a trois with Issa Rice and Vipul Naik and he is going to write an article about his experience including ggplot2 graphs. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.
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E. Yudkowsky will undergo “endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty”. Despite the surgery he will gain weight. Gwern will advise him to try a kettlebell workout. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Scott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
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gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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the earth will spin for the next 24 hours ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rbutorac on 2019-04-09; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-04-10.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on March 29 Brexit, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 20% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-12.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Oct-Nov-Dec 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Aug-Sep-Oct 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-11-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jun-Jul-Aug 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Mar-Apr-May 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-04.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-08.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jan-Feb-Mar 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.