Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 63% | 44% | 82% | 84% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 19 | 9 | 11 | 31 | 3 | 76 |
Displaying all predictions made by Chri. Filter by:
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Isle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Pandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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TIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Codenames will be SdJ 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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I will have at least 365 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 68% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.
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I will have at least 200 logged plays on BGG by the end of 2016 ( 94% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-03-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-01-04.
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Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
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We won't miss any train in our connection. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-08-26; known on 2015-08-26; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-28.
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Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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A will be at Bs party or on vacation. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-08-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-08-20.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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DAX above 10000 until mid of July 2015 ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-06-16; known on 2015-07-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-07-15.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
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Wie will only play Space Alert tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.
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I will geht at least 30xp playing Space Alert tonight. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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I will be able to memorize a shuffled deck of cards (Doppelkopf deck, 48 cards) in less then 5min by the end of May. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-28.
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In HPMOR, Bartemus Crouch Sr. will be revealed as having covered up Crouch Jr.'s membership in the Death Eaters, or otherwise shielding him from the consequences in some way, in direct opposition to his reputation as a stalwart upholder of the law. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMoR: Mr White is Lucius Malfoy, conditional on the identity of Mr White or Lucius Malfoy at the meeting being confirmed, or Lucius not being present at the meeting being confirmed. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-12.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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HPMoR: Snape is present in Ch 114. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Chri on 2015-03-17.
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Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution involves time travel ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR, Ch. 114] The true solution relies on Partial Transfiguration ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] Conditional on EY accepting a viable fan solution, it will be different to what will actually happen in the story. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by dain on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HJPEV has access to Voldemort's Horcrux network, due to being sufficiently Tom Riddle. ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-03-03.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.
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Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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DAX will be above 10000 on Jan 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-01-15.
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DAX will stay above 9000pts until Mar 1, 2015 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-01.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.