Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Repeal of Obamacare, including at least the individual mandate OR minimum coverage rules signed in to law before end of 2017 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.
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I will read 40+ books in 2017 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 30+ books in 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will read every new xkcd in 2017 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Resolution 3 : Stay out of ER as patient in 2017 ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 drawings ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-01.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 blog posts ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will use work time tracking through Dec 31. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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The UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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Contingent on no presidential candidate earning a majority of electoral votes (prediction is null if one does), the House of Representatives will elect Donald Trump ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-05; known on 2018-01-01.
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facebook block capability will digitally alter pictures to erase evidence that the person who's blocking you was ever present ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2025-07-22.
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Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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I read >13 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21; judged right by penten on 2018-12-21.
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I will have given up alcohol by 1st Jan 2018 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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President Jerry Brown ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Aaron will eat a sandwich for lunch today. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Rob Bednark on 2016-12-20.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-07-02.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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The Shia Muslim ritual of tatbir will no longer be widely practiced in 40 years. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by VK7K7vg on 2016-12-18; known on 2056-12-18.
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Trump explicitly invokes a credit wake ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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[SeveNeveS] – Znegvnaf Yvirq gb ng yrnfg +N.4999 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.
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[SeveNeveS] Ng yrnfg 1 uhzna qrpraqrq sebz Ehshf' pebjq fheivirq gb N.4999 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-17.
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Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Politics, US – Jim O'Neill announced as nominee for head of the FDA by Trump or a representative, by end of December 2016. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-01-10.
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Politics, US – Rex Tillerson officially announced by Trump or representative as nominee for Secretary of State before 2016-12-17 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-12-11; known on 2016-12-17; judged right by Liron Shapira on 2016-12-15.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hedges on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-10.
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We will have a second child within 10 years ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-09.
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“White Christmas” (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-25.
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Turkey is served at the family Christmas dinner ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-26.
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Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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I'll recover from the flu enough to work on the 10th ( 70% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-10.
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Conditional on human beings being still alive, most of them will be on earth, whatever 'human being' and 'earth' mean in 3016 ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 3016-12-31.
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I will not convert to an abramist faith on my deathbed ( 100% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-07; known on 2100-01-01.
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Survey of 40 random saskatchewanians (or whoever lives in that area in 2020) will reveal Brad Wall's tweet in 2016 as 'ridiculous' ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-05; known on 2020-11-22.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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Trump will nominate Romney ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michael149 on 2016-12-02; known on 2016-12-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-14.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2026-11-28.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying < 300$/mo property tax ( 1% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 paying 5000$/mo in property tax ( 3% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still in same house ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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d309242507b92a022ce20a1f0079b8c3 is still alive ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2036-11-28.
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>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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By the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by murrlong on 2016-11-29; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by olimay on 2020-02-01.
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I will eat a sandwich for lunch tomorrow ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by epm5108@psu.edu on 2016-11-29; known on 2016-11-29.
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Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-11-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2018-05-26.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
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Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-24.
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Salted__²ð~½)©çï>Û£ÆB˜¢ª©9ÝmàIŒ~gþ®ëÎÌakðÄä×h…Ho&rÕ4¤@^K@N›æJË >2gà,ai<ùå, ǬèÞ†ŸVÖß ç1ûǶ£7Ó›TiQÐèàc}^¬=8“Dò.u2 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20; judged wrong by AP107138 on 2017-11-25.
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Salted__aÀ_>—é 䃊p4ìÕÔ‹?‚)ciÅÑ0=ZÌ—±B¤ºÑö£l‚wKÌĺDZ¦Xù˜¹Û¸c?ó—Ýc>ÅŒ§%Ñ{E#ã¶`WÓÑÕŠä^¼ÙB’àu¶ÂZ‘KÐaa1qpµÙ°¿ÊŒ·fK D~S ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20.
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Salted__DË'}) q×ɸÆ2%ÙH”Ãôf4MwCÊ=»Ò“QÆ{PKÈ2œ³Ó¨†ÍÈüÑ=6¸®!ö»Ogšb€K5$ÆÙðjs[ÖØ%DOÒŒ9T•SØÆxä^ ›IQ/7,ê©Ò!¸•€¡—Ï£N•¶„,ócg3÷g ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20.
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CR's friend will get snow tires on his truck in time for CR to borrow it ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-06.
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US Election 2018: Number of Democrats in House of Representatives win < 95 seats ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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(@AudaciousEpigon or @Inductivist) gets suspended by twitter in 2017 along with at least one more HBD-associated with account. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-02-11.
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Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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I didn't just lose bitcoin ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-16; known on 2016-11-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18.