Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 75% | 75% | 79% | 85% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 13 | 2 | 61 |
Displaying all predictions made by wallowinmaya. Filter by:
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I will take more than 40 grams of kratom until 31.12.2012. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-12-15.
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I will play WoW for less than 5 hours this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
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I will play Guild Wars 2 for more than 10 hours in the next week ( 50% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-30.
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My “shaming” comment will have negative karma at the end of 1 week from now. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-10.
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Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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I'll organize another LW-meetup this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-11-15.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-07-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-31.
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If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.
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Hanson and Yudkowsky publish the AI FOOM debate (EDIT: in a peer-reviewed, academic journal) before 2015. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-02-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 30% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-02-11; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-11.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.
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Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 65% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 35% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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I will finish the translation of the first 13 chapters of “Facing the Singularity” until the end of february. ( 81% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-03-06.
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In 6 months I'll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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My grandmother will die this year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I'll get a prescription for modafinil this year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I'll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.
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I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. ( 60% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03.
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Stopping Bupropion won't reduce my happiness by more than 10%. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-16; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-24.
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gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.