Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
-
[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-23.
-
I will do eight hours of productive work today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
-
I will attend go club today. ( 30% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
-
I will do six hours of productive work today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
-
My date proposal will be rejected ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-21.
-
[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
-
A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.
-
I'll go through my decision-making process and score capitol hill as the best place for me to live ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bill on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Bill on 2019-01-20.
-
Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
-
[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
-
Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
-
VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
-
Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
-
I will work for at least 8h today ( 55% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19.
-
[Personal] All documents to be approved and returned by tomorrow EOD ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-17; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-18.
-
I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-01-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18.
-
[Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-01-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-17.
-
I will have a major haircut in 2018 ( 10% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
-
I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018 ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
-
I will drop out of my PhD in 2018 ( 2% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
-
[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-16.
-
[Personal] We will successfully settle on a book to read today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-16.
-
On Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.) ( 87% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2019-01-15.
-
[Fighting] At least one more change to the UFC Fight Night 143 fight card to be announced (i.e., other than Mario Bautista, Karl Roberson, and Dwight Grant replacing John Lineker, Ion Cutelaba, and Randy Brown) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-15.
-
“An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-01-14.
-
[Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
-
[Personal] I will see the opera on Saturday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
-
Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.
-
[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 1 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-11.
-
I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11.
-
A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2019-01-08.
-
1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2018-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-01-07.
-
“Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right.” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-07.
-
Dodd-Frank fully or almost fully repealed by US midterm elections. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
-
I have a conversation with a colleague in Chinese in 2018 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
-
No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
-
No large-scale deportation of Dreamers. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
-
The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.
-
Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
-
I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-28). ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04.
-
Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£1000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.