Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Fed: unemployment won't reach 7.5% until 2014 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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Gangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Gangnam Style won't be on Billboard 100 digital song chart by April 1, 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Google maps app for iPhone 5 won't be launched by end of 2012 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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They won't be able to upload a honey bee brain into a robot insectoid by end of 2015 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
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Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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Wiki gun will be successfully complete in 2 years ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-28; known on 2014-09-23; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-26.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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They will have started Phase 3 clinical trials in the US of a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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A major tech startup (valuation > 10 million dollars) will be launched out of a country or by native citizens of a country ranked in the lowest 100 of GDP per capita according to the CIA factbook. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2032-09-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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It will be just as easy to view copyrighted films and tv shows online (with or without permission) in 10 years as it is now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2022-09-26.
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Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 49 million iPhone sales for December, 2012 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
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Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
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Assuming Obama wins, Sheryl Sandberg will take a administration job ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
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Barclays analyst Ben Reitzes: Apple to sell 45.21 million iPhones in the December quarter, up 22 percent from last year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley: Apple to ship 9 million to 10 million iPhone 5s from Friday to September 29. ( 45% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-18; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26.
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By 2025, the volume of robocalls will exceed the volume of live calls on the regular phone system ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-16; known on 2025-01-01.
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Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.
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There'll be press report of “martial law” imposed on the internet by a major country in the next 10 years ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-01.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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Fed will change the monthly QE3 purchase size/type by Feb 2014 (now $40b MBS a month) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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By the end of the year, NASA will announce that spherical objects discovered by its Opportunity rover on 9/14 are geological rather than biological in origin. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-19.
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The recent proof of the nature of the pattern of prime numbers is fatally flawed, and this flaw will be revealed before march 1st, 2013. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2012-09-14; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-03-01.
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Fed: Unemployment won't reach 7% until 2014 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07.
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There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
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Bettina and Christian Wulff will divorce before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-09-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-01-07.
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Violent crimes in NY going up (2013 rate > 2011 rate by more than 10%) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Microsoft will buy Nokia. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-09-10; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by bknakker on 2013-09-09.
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US unemployment rate below 8% by the 2012 election (last reported number before the election) ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14.
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Facebook CFO will be fired or depart within a year (by September 1 2013) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23.
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The NFL and the refs won't come to a labor agreement before Oct 1 ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-27.
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Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Farhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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Isaac will be upgraded to a hurricane ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
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China will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Twitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Bob Mansfield will re-retire by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Fed will announce QE3 at Jackson Hole conference ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2012-09-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-31.
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China's one child policy will end before 2032 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-16.
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Within 2 years, the global usage share of IE (all versions), will be below 20%, as measured by statcounter.com ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2012-08-25; known on 2014-08-26; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-26.
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NYPD will publicly reassess its shooting policy for its officers before end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-08-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-26.
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Akin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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March 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$ ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-28.
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March 2013 hard drive prices: 24-30 GB/$ ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-03-28.
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August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-28.
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August 2014 hard drive prices: 74-84 GB/$ ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-08-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-23.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-15.
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NFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.
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NFL 2012: Lions will finish with better regular season record than the Bears ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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NFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.