Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 60% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 6 | 10 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by lukas11. Filter by:
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Luminiferous Aether Theory turned out to be correct after all, big screw up/coverup dating to Michelson–Morley ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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Angela Merkel is re-elected Chancellor of Germany ( 79% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2017-09-25.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started in 2017 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.