Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 50% | 60% | 83% | 82% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 34 | 44 | 43 | 36 | 76 | 11 | 244 |
Displaying all predictions made by Ham Nox. Filter by:
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I will not be invited to travel again with KW in the next 2 years ( 88% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2016-05-01.
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Provided I am still using HabitRPG or another reminder system in a year from now, I will have making a prediction a day as an explicit daily checklist item. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2015-04-24.
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The local LDS wards by my house have an intense rivalry. ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-12-04; judged unknown by Ham Nox on 2014-12-08.
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Audrey's greenhouse will contain real live plants in 1 month ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-04.
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I will visit New York City before the fifth of January ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-23; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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I make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-14.
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I go to swamp meet sunday ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-15.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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What color underwear random person is wearing. 95% white, black, pink, nude/brown, red, green, blue/navy, purple, orange, multicolor. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 0-9 people know my name without prompting. (mistyped) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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Out of 10 asked at the reunion, 2-3 people knowing my name without prompting. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-23; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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Will be moved to Bay Area in the next 3 months ( 33% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-11-24.
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I will get 5+ alumni messages by the end of this week (currently have 4) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-08-24; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-24.
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My dad and step-mom divorce within the next two years ( 0% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-12; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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Some kind of altercation between China and Japan leads to missiles being launched by the end of 2014 ( 3% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-02.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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a formation of UFO that will be seen over a major U.S. city before the end of 2014 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.
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PredictionBook is distracting. That's why! Someone will agree with me in 7 days. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-09; known on 2014-08-16; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-17.
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I will wake up as a cat tomorrow. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-08; known on 2014-08-08; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-08.
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I will get offered both the Macy's and Autism aide position ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06; known on 2014-08-20; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-23.
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In one year, my room will contain no kumquats. ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-04; known on 2015-08-04; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-05.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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Parents will find a reasonn to hate their new neighborhood (in East Layton) within 3 years ( 15% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02.
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I will throw up in the next 6 months ( 10% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-02-14.
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I will get >=90% on my neurobio course. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-08-11; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-06.
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My team in the Good Judgment Project (PredictionBook on steroids) will finish in the top 5 of the 29 total teams. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-05-01.
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I get an interview from WHS in the coming week (until 2nd) ( 25% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27; known on 2014-08-02; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-02.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
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A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Alberto Contador to win the Tour de France 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-07-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-07-27.
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Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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My laptop will still be properly functional and in use six months from now. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-17; known on 2014-12-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-19.
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Friend ___ moves out of his apartment by the end of August ( 35% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05; known on 2014-08-31; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-08-31.
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I will clean my car out by next saturday night ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-29; known on 2014-07-05; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-07-05.
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My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2019-01-08.
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“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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I will get out of work by 2:15pm today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-13; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.
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I will get a call tomorrow, from anyone. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-12.
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I will get 90% or above on next week's neurobio quiz ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-15.
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The sun will come out tomorrow. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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I will still be in the Pigeon Feeders party (HabitRPG) in 2015 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-04.
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My parents will start looking for a house again within the next 2 years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-21; known on 2016-05-21; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-22.
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There will be Doritos at the wedding or related meal tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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Mom will say Happy is a 5/5 song when I ask ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-16.
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I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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Grandma will give me money when I go to her house today ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-12.
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one of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint ( 2% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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my sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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My family does not get the creek house ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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The creek house we want will not go for a price under 200 (or 20, I forget the magnitude. The point is that Mom won't get her -1 or 2 significant digit she wants.) ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-05; known on 2014-08-16; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-08.
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Lizz will grow to have a negative opinion of her new job within 2 years. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-02; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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Rotten tomato score for ender's game is between 25 and 45 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98% ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Will run into friend on their way to work ( 5% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Friend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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get to friend's house in morning, they will still be there. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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At least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my “I'm always right” challenge by the end of May ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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One of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as one of my dailies through the middle of August. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-08-15.
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I will go with my friend to California this week. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-25; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-26.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23.
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I will lose the game today, (other than within an hour of predicting this) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-04-22; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21.
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I will not do the alhohol/math experiments ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.
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I will have a source of sustainable passive income (minimum $400 per month, requiring < 2hrs per day from me) by the end of this year, so that I can go ahead and pursue my life's dreams full time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2015-01-01.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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HP MoR: Harry's father's rock is actually the Resurrection Stone. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-09-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2014-08-02.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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HPMoR: The spell of cursèd fire is Amaterasu. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-23.
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I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-06-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.