Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 50% | 50% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by elecnix. Filter by:
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-11-20; known on 2023-04-01; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Luc Ferrandez est élu chef du parti Projet Montréal ( 75% confidence )
Created by elecnix on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-01-27; judged wrong by elecnix on 2016-01-27.
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By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.