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Solar flare to harm life on Earth

Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.

  • kish estimated 100% on 2012-01-10
  • lavalamp estimated 45% and said ““harm” is extremely vague.on 2012-01-20
  • JoshuaZ said “Can’t estimate without a more well-defined notion of harm. on 2012-01-20
  • gwern   judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.

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