Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
-
Conditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.
-
Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.
-
In at least one state Obama wins in 2012, Gary Johnson will win a number of votes greater than the margin by which Obama defeats Romney in that state. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
-
At least one major broadcaster will have to retract its calling a state for a particular candidate within a week after the election tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
-
Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
-
NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat Philadelphia Eagles in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
-
My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
-
LSD microdosing experiment: pair 5: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2012-11-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Denver Broncos will beat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat Miami Dolphins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Chicago Bears will beat Minnesota Vikings in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat Tennessee Titans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: SF 49ers will beat New Orleans in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Arizona Cardinals will beat St Louis Rams in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat NY Giants in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-26.
-
Super Mario Bros. Z episode 9 will be released on or before November 24, 2012. ( 21% confidence )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-11-24; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-11-24.
-
Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
-
Mangaka Mutsumi Akazaki (formerly of Fractale) will be publishing a regular series within a year. ( 40% confidence; 77 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-23.
-
NFL: New England Patriots will beat NY Jets in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by dwibby on 2012-11-23.
-
NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Washington Redskins in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-23.
-
NFL: Houston Texans will beat Detroit Lions in Week 12 of the 2012 Season ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-22; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by dwibby on 2012-11-22.
-
Apple's announcement for the 4th major iPad refresh will call the new iPad “the new iPad” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-09; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-22.
-
The first episode of the third season of MLP:FIM will first be broadcast on November 20'th ( 55% confidence )
Created by _W_ on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-11-21; judged wrong by _W_ on 2012-11-21.
-
The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/11/12-06/12/12 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-11-21.
-
http://pastebin.com/czd3pHDr Some elements of the above sentence would reappear in Ixrec's review of oretsuba. (Moogy/Kefit) ( 5% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-02-27; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-11-21.
-
DWibby's Week 11 NFL predictions based on intuitive confidence scale (rated from 0-5, and mapped to 50-100% at 10% intervals) will be at least 5% less than true accuracy at each 10% interval. ( 80% confidence; 15 comments )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-20.
-
NFL: Chicago Bears will beat San Francisco 49ers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-20.
-
LSD microdosing experiment: pair 4: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-19; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by dwibby on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: New England Patriots will beat Indianapolis Colts in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Denver Broncos will beat San Diego Chargers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat Oakland Raiders in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-19; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Washington Redskins will beat Philidelphia Eagles in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat Arizona Cardinals in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Tampa Bay Buccaneers will beat Carolina Panthers in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat Cleveland Browns in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
St. Louis Rams will beat New York Jets in Week 11 of the 2012 NFL Season ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Houston Texans will beat Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat Kansas City Chiefs in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat Detroit Lions in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-19.
-
I'll attend 3sat on the 17th. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2012-11-08; known on 2012-11-18; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-18.
-
at least 5 birthday emails ( 70% confidence )
Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-17; judged wrong by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-17.
-
do coze workshop ( 75% confidence )
Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-17.
-
If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick within 60 minutes afterwards. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-16.
-
NFL: Miami will cover against Buffalo on 11/15 (Buffalo favored by 1). ( 59% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-16.