Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): At some point, Harry Potter will use magic to directly modify his brain (ex. Memory Charm, False memory charm, etc.). ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: A Horcrux or Philosopher's stone was hidden Mount Etna ( 22% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Lesath Lestrange will cast Avada Kedavra ( 75% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The Remembrall went off because Harry forgot to study mind magic ( 25% confidence )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Nicholas Flamel ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Harry Potter will respect his contract/promise from ch.47 with Draco. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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I don't think Nino will get a blue-eyed, hairless cat. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aeyk on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-02-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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I will overtake J in Duolingo by the end of February ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Sunderland will beat/draw against West Brom ( 75% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-22; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Aston Villa will beat/draw against Stoke ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga is Hat & Cloak ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HPMoR: Mr White is Lucius Malfoy, conditional on the identity of Mr White or Lucius Malfoy at the meeting being confirmed, or Lucius not being present at the meeting being confirmed. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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The SMALL REU will reject me. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by azax1 on 2015-03-11.
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HPMOR: By the end of the story, it will turn out that the troll actually killed Hermione. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by Mathias Zaman on 2015-03-11.
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HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-10; known on 2015-03-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-10.
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HP MoR: James Potter, Sirius Black, and Peter Pettigrew were Animagi. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-09-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-10.
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I will test the appropriate n-rep maxima for all the Ice Cream exercises I can do this for at the gym by 11:00 (in about six hours) ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-03-05; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.
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I see S at P ( 25% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-06; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-10.
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Scott Aaronson will reply to at least one of my questions via email or mention it in a blogpost by July 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10.
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Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.
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The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.