Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 20% | 50% | 90% | 78% | 78% | 50% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 14 | 10 | 9 | 23 | 2 | 63 |
Displaying all predictions made by Calien. Filter by:
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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Effective Altruism Canberra will have 15 prospective members, allowing them to affiliate with the Australian National University Students Association, by the end of this year. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-01.
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We will be out of hospital by 10pm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-06-21; known on 2015-06-21.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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Another cup will get broken in the next month. ( 8% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02.
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I will download 3-6 Android apps in the next month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
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I will download 2-10 Android apps in the next month. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-02; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-04-04.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.
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I will have officially switched to PhB by next semester. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-10-19.
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Conditional on my not switching programs, I will have declared a CS major by the end of my second year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2016-01-05.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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My event time is 11am tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.
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My event time is 1pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.
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My event time is 12pm tomorrow. ( 12% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.
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My event time is 2pm tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2014-11-17; judged right by Calien on 2014-11-17.
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Tony Abbott will be elected for a second term as PM. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2017-01-14.
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Conditional on my replacing my phone in the next six months, it will be an iPhone. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-11-17; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-05-17.
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I will upgrade my computer by January ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
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Legend of Korra book 4: the technology Varrick is working involves messing with bending powers. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-10-21; known on 2014-12-30; judged wrong by Calien on 2014-11-17.
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I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.
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I will have finished the second season of Orphan Black by next Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-29; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.
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I will take at least 24 hours to read the responses to my latest forum post. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2014-09-22; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by Calien on 2014-10-02.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.
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By the end of this year, I will know 50 Canberrans who read LessWrong or attend meetups regularly. (I will have personally spoken to and remember names and faces) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-01-06.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.
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I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by Calien on 2014-09-05.
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The Legend of Korra will not be cancelled before Book 4 is finished. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by Calien on 2015-01-06.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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The total market cap of all non-bitcoin cryptocurrencies will beat Bitcoin's market cap at some point during the year. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.