Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 49% | 72% | 69% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 35 | 46 | 35 | 128 | 7 | 272 |
Displaying all predictions made by rebellionkid. Filter by:
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Alex Sammond still the leader of the SNP at the end of the year ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-11-14.
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Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-isreali conflict before 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2050-01-01.
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A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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“Her insan doğar, yaşar, ve ölür.” is meaningful and true. ( 98% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-18; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a week ( 10% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-08-25.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a month ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-09-18; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-18.
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Nawaz Sharif is widely believed to still be in PM house. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-08-21; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-08-21.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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The Rosetta Probe's Philae lander will touch down successfully (at least 9 of its 10 scientific instruments working) on comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko by the end of November. ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tdhellma on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-30.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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Next season of House of Cards features the orchestrated resignation of a SCOTUS judge. ( 20% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05.
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Je dessinerai, pour mon travail ou pour mon plaisir, au moins 2 fois par semaine en moyenne, que ce soit en congés ou au travail. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jean on 2014-08-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by Jean on 2014-11-04.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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UKIP wins a seat at or before the next general election. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-27; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2020 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Iraq splits into 3, (either 3 distinct states or a single federal government of 3 autonomous regions), before 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.
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Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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I will take part in the play saturday. ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-20; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-06-22.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.
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My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Junker will be President of the European Commission within 2 months. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-10; known on 2014-08-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-15.
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Skype translator will be a huge success ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-06-07; known on 2016-06-07.
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The government following the next UK election will not be a formal coalition. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Nick Clegg will remain in the cabinet until the next general election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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Labour will win the most seats in the next UK general election. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Ed Miliband will lead the Labour party to the next general election. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Nick Clegg will lead the Lib Dems into the next general election. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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The next UK general election will be held on 7 May 2015 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07.
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Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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There will be an in-out referendum on the EU in the next parliament. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Less than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-30.
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Lib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections ( 50% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-25.
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Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Labour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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UKIP wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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By the end of 2015, at least one service will offer genome sequencing for less than $100. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-05-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by player_03 on 2016-01-01.
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Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.
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I won't get a H1B visa this year ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by influnza on 2014-08-03.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Submarines will find flight MH370, or it will be forever lost. ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-24; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-07-06.
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Half Life 3 will be announced at the next E3 convention. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2014-06-13.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will have finished the Lesswrong main sequences by June 11th 2014. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-06-20.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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Slate Star Codex will get more hits in 2014 than in 2013. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-10.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Liam Fox will return to a Cabinet post in the next reshuffle ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-07-21.
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Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
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The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.