Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 52% | 67% | 63% | 88% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 31 | 30 | 38 | 52 | 12 | 175 |
Displaying all predictions made by kallman. Filter by:
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
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Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
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There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27; judged wrong by kallman on 2022-01-01.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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In the wake of Alphabet, we'll see a boom and subsequent crash of google-related projects. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2018-01-16.
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I will complete most of the rennovation tasks before my roommate returns in october (ie >75%) ( 75% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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I will complete all the little home renovation tasks on my list before my roommate returns in October. ( 20% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-10-20; judged wrong by kallman on 2015-10-27.
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I will pass my L exam (again), and allow it to expire (again). ( 80% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by kallman on 2017-12-31.
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
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As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.
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Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
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'China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.
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'Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year' —Brian Breslin ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-08.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.
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HP MoR: <4 2+-page chapters of MoR in 2012. —Bugmaster ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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The model predicts that by 2012, almost half of the 50 states would vote against a marriage ban, including several states that had previously voted to ban it. —Nate Silver ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-31.
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The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.
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'Google reboots android marketplace' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01.
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Bill Murray will die in Ghostbusters 3 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.
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Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
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3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government! ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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Nuclear problems in Japan will be solved at the end of April ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.
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White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.
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Mubarak will cease to be Egypt's President by 2012. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-11.
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“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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Toy Story 3 will win 2011 Best Animated Oscar. —John Scalzi ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Natalie Portman will win 2011 Best Actress Oscar —John Scalzi ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-27; known on 2011-02-27; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-28.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
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'75% probability of [eyewear computing] being mainstream, or at least not unusual, by 2020.' —orangecat ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.
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CEO Steve Ballmer will not leave Microsoft's CEOship in 2011. —Robert X. Cringely ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.
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'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-10.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.
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'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-28.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.
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Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
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Most people own more than one P.C., though the concept of what a “computer” is has changed considerably: Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilit ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Computers are embedded everywhere in the environment (inside of furniture, jewelry, walls, clothing, etc.). —Ray Kurzweil ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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A $1,000 personal computer has as much raw power as the human brain. —Ray Kurzweil ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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'2095 The development of a “Space Drive” – a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time – makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. Human explorers set off to nearby star systems.' ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2096-01-01.
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'2090 Burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace carbon dioxide “mined” from the air and to try to postpone the next Ice Age by promoting global warming.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2091-01-01.
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“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.