Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 67% | 75% | 82% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 15 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 3 | 73 |
Displaying all predictions made by bendini. Filter by:
-
Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07; judged wrong by bendini on 2022-02-11.
-
Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.
-
GC will be unable to provide legitimate receipts of an amount that exceeds £100k, to prove he has kept his GWWC pledge for at least 10% of his income ( 60% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-10-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-10-17.
-
Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
-
EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
-
EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
-
Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
-
Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
-
Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
-
Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Youtube channel Tech Ingredients will reach 200,000 subscribers (Currently 14k) within 2 years ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-03-28; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by bendini on 2019-07-07.
-
The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-03-04; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by dchristie on 2018-04-01.
-
The track “Narcos” by Migos will peak in their top 3 Spotify songs sometime in 2018 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-12-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
-
The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
-
Cmydd gsvv gbsdo k lvyqzycd drkd bopoboxmoc wkdobskv lbyeqrd ez sx wi zycd lopybo dro oxn yp dro iokb ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-11-06; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
-
Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
-
Conor McGregor wins against Floyd Mayweather Jr. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-08-03; known on 2017-08-27; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-08-27.
-
Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
-
Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
-
Total per person unsubsidised cost on accelerator project will not be below €100 for rent food energy and internet. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
-
The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
-
Issa will get another girlfriend in this century ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2020-09-09.
-
By 2018 The Kernel Project will have reached step 9 as defined in https://docs.google.com/document/d/1wmVZJiDjTjxmVshSFSk2rH-b8GLiQ0DJ0Cw1hyOnswM/edit?usp=sharing ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.
-
Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known on 2022-02-14.
-
Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
-
Illidanstr will spend at least one new years eve before the year 2021 not alone, according to his personal definition of “not alone” ( 80% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-01; known on 2021-01-10; judged right by bendini on 2021-01-10.
-
Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
-
1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
-
Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
-
Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
-
The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
-
Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
-
The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
-
Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
-
Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
-
Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
-
The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
coinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
-
There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
-
North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
-
Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
2016 global climate change reaches +10 degrees Celsius relative to 1996 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
-
3 billion Android users at any point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-01-01.
-
Gender divide in 2016 election to be greater than that in 2012 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-01-05.
-
Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
-
The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
-
Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
-
Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
-
Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
-
Satoshi nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014. http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-19.
-
A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
-
A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged unknown by tedks on 2021-06-14.
-
A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
-
“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
-
The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
-
Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
-
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
-
Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.