Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
-
“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.
-
“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the “fuel of choice” for personal transportation for the next 50 years” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2056-12-31.
-
“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.” ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2036-01-01.
-
“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
-
“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.
-
“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.
-
“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“A March 2004 article stated: "More than 3.5 billion years after nature transformed non-living matter into living things, populating Earth with a cornucopia of animals and plants, scientists say they are finally ready to try their hand at creating life. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-12-31.
-
“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.
-
“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-12-31.
-
“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
-
“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.
-
“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.
-
“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.
-
“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.
-
“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.
-
“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“By 2025, at least 25 of the 30 stocks currently in the Dow Jones Industrial Average will be dropped from the index and replaced with other companies.” ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.
-
“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
-
“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
-
“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.
-
“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
-
“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.
-
“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
-
“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“By 2020, in real or artificial life, sustainable evolutionary progress in a genetically closed system will not have been demonstrated.” ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.
-
“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.
-
“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.
-
By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025, the states will have voted on at least one constitutional amendment to cede US federal power to a global government.” ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“In 2022 the US economy will no longer be held to be the world leader in global environmental degradation.” ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2022-12-31.
-
“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.
-
“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
-
By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.
-
The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-05-08.
-
United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
-
Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.
-
Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
-
I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.
-
Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.
-
The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
-
Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
-
Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
-
No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
-
In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
-
In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
-
I will not be diagnosed with cancer before the age of 45. ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2019-01-01.
-
Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
-
There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving one billion personal records before 2019. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
-
The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
-
A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
-
Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
-
Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
-
The year 2038 problem will be more interesting than y2k ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-18; known on 2038-07-18; judged unknown by anonym on 2009-11-07.