Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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Facebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Either Novak Djokovic or Rafael Nadal will finish ATP year-end number 1 in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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Novak Djokovic will finish year-end ATP number 1 in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-11-22; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by gurgus on 2018-11-20.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de jure president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Something other than a Mugabe restoration, an army-supported takeover, or unrest/civil war ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Mr and Mrs Mugabe and/or other factions dispute power with the generals; violence erupts, no single clear de facto leadership in the country ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Generals back down; Mugabe is freed and goes back to de facto ruling the country. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Some other veteran of the War of Independence ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Someone who is not a war veteran and not a member of ZANU-PF (excluding Tsvangirai) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Patrick Zhuwayo (Robert Mugabe's nephew) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Ignatius Chombo ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Saviour Kasukuwere ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Constantino Chiwenga ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Grace Mugabe ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Morgan Tsvangirai ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-16.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] require a runoff ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have neither Lula da Silva nor Jair Bolsonaro win outright, and neither will advance to the runoff ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in the runoff ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Lula da Silva in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-18.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] either be won by Jair Bolsonaro in the first round or have him advance to the runoff ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have no state won by a candidate that finishes third or lower overall ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-09.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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Packers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-02-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Main bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-02-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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Brexit fails ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.
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There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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The Turkish constitutional referendum that makes the country a presidential republic will pass. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-04-17.
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Geert Wilders' PVV will win strictly more seats in the Dutch general election than any other party. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-03-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-15.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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I'll message Inga, she'll say yes and the conversation will fizzle before a resolution. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-20; known on 2017-02-24.
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The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.
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No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Whistleblower reveals, in a way that is undeniable and accepted by majority of these citizens, that federal elections in all of US/CAN/EU (parliament, not necessarily member states)/UK/switzerland is rigged ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Any candidate runs under the banner of the Party of Reason and Progress (PORP), at any level in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14; known on 2018-11-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Gary Johnson getting 15% in 5 national polls, the Commission on Presidential Debates will invite him for a debate with Trump and Hillary. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-19.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Venezuela will announce (not necessarily hold) a recall referendum in 2016 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.
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Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.