Unjudged Predictions
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The +/- 64 coefficient additions produce less coherent behavior ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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[For Monte's model sweep (https://pastebin.com/zymtNS3v),] The + 64 coefficient additions generally produce less wedding-focused completions than +4 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-04-14; known on 2023-04-14.
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Test ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2023-04-08; known on 2023-04-08.
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It will rain ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nadrien on 2023-04-06; known on 2023-04-07.
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It will rain tomorrow in New York ( 60% confidence )
Created by jjb7077 on 2023-04-02; known on 2023-04-03.
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UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.
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By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.
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test ( 100% confidence )
Created by trey on 2023-03-28; known on 2023-03-28.
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(Habits) >70% of habits completed for the week of Mar 20 ( 50% confidence )
Created by pseudotilitarian on 2023-03-20; known on 2023-03-27.
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NFT games will be one of the hottest topics of 2022, led by The Sandbox, where it's crypto token SAND will reach as high as $30. But eventually, “NFT Games” will fade in by 2023, because everyone will realize how bad and how unsustainable they are. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2023-03-18.
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Brock Osweiler is out of NFL within 7 years ( 7% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-13; known on 2023-03-13.
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I will catch up with my flashcard debt duplicate of: https://manifold.markets/EmrikGarden/will-i-have-caught-up-with-my-flash ( 15% confidence )
Created by emrik on 2022-11-25; known on 2023-03-01.
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After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.
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I will lose my virginity before I turn 24 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2023-03-01.
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At 1030pm on Sunday Feb 26, there will be a person functionally checking whether or not you are registered for the party via fb/partiful. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-25; known on 2023-02-27.
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Doubling channel 55 will work to increase cheese-seeking by at least 10% without destroying performance, in >25% of mazes with decision-squares. ( 20% confidence )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-17; known on 2023-02-17.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[Randomly generating train-distribution mazes and considering squares in the top-right 5×5 corner, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 25% of the time ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 50% of the time ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 99.5% of the time ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-03-01; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 95% of the time ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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[At decision squares, the 5×5 rand-region cheese maze network will put max cumulative probability on the maximal-advantage action at least] 75% of the time ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TurnTrout on 2023-02-09; known on 2023-02-16.
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Ukrainians will maintain control of Bakhmut through to January 31st ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by branperr on 2023-01-06; known on 2023-01-31; judged unknown by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-09.
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In the future, a woman will be on the agenda with great scientific research, and this case will affect female software developers in a good way. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smodnix on 2020-07-11; known on 2023-01-20.
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I will self-identify as vegan ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-16.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.
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I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will go to Oxford before the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence )
Created by mgerov on 2022-11-06; known on 2023-01-01.
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Ben: In 2022, in the US, >50% of the top 5% of citizens by income who use computers will not be using a mouse / keyboard. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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Food shortages, resurgent Islamic radicalism, and a torrent of oil revenues will cause an “Arab Spring” movement to overthrow the Saudi Arabian government (http://rationalconspiracy.com/2012/11/23/the-real-america-of-2022/) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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There will be more janitors in the U.S. in 2022 than there will be in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will get a mortgage in 2022 ( 80% confidence )
Created by FergusFettes on 2022-08-16; known on 2023-01-01.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.
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Chen-Ning Yang to become a centenarian ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2023-01-01.
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Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.