Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 52% | 67% | 63% | 88% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 31 | 30 | 38 | 52 | 12 | 175 |
Displaying all predictions made by kallman. Filter by:
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'2040 The “Universal Replicator,” based on nanotechnology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created – given the necessary raw materials. Diamonds or gourmet meals can, literally, be made from dirt.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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'Prince Harry becomes the first member of the British royal family to fly in space.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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'Aerospace-planes enter commercial service.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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The proportion of the population that believes that Human-induced climate change is a reality will decline to below 50% by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2014-12-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-16.
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“the number of IMAX theaters in the US triples” —dfranke ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-06.
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ARNA's stock price will be over $30 on Jan 15, 2011 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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MNKD's stock price will be over $20 by Jan 15, 2011 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
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Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10; judged wrong by procran on 2013-02-12.
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Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
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“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.
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“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-06.
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“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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There will be another major natural disaster before the years over ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-06.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Absolutely nothing apocalyptic will happen in the year 2012. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2009-11-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The Dow will close under 8,000 (in Oct. 2009 dollars) before Dec. 31st, 2010. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tommccabe on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-16.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
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Google will lose their soul. We'll love them less in the coming years. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Lina on 2009-05-28; known on 2011-05-27; judged wrong by Lina on 2011-05-27.
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Buffy the Vampire Slayer will make it to the Big Screen ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by TwitterPredicts on 2011-06-01.
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Quiksilver shares will double inside 30 months ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Andy on 2008-10-06; known on 2011-04-06; judged wrong by Andy on 2011-04-06.