Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 43% | 33% | 67% | 58% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 12 | 2 | 31 |
Displaying all predictions made by dakyne. Filter by:
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Villanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship ( 35% confidence )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-03; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-04-05.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-01.
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Spot silver will reach $20 by December 31, 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The spot price of silver will be $50/troy oz. or more at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will win 20 or more games in the 2011 – 2012 regular season. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2012-03-04; judged wrong by dakyne on 2012-03-05.
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The SIU Saluki men's basketball team will win 15 or more games in the 2010 – 2011 regular season, including the MVC tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-10-07; known on 2011-03-07; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-07.
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ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.
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ARNA will have a Advisory Committee vote with at least 75% members voting for approval ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-17.
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UCSB Gauchos men's basketball team will be the #1 seed in the 2011 Big West Conference tournament. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-03-06; judged wrong by dakyne on 2011-03-06.
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UCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
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ALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-10-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-11.
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Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.
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“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
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The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.
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California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
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The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.