Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 82% | 57% | 89% | 85% | 94% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 11 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 70 | 22 | 184 |
Displaying all predictions made by HonoreDB. Filter by:
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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>1000 tons of oil spills between May 1st 2020 and May 1st 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2020-04-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2020-06-04.
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A third-party candidate gets more than 5% of the vote in the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-14; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-11-07.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir. ( 40% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr. ( 80% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex. ( 65% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq. ( 70% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-02-12; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-02-14.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Gur svanyr perngrf be qvfpbiref n gvzryvar jurer gur riragf bs gur cvybg bppheerq qvssreragyl. ( 40% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-02-12; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2018-02-14.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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GoT: Glevba naq Wnvzr ner erirnyrq gb unir orra pbafcvevat gbtrgure. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-07-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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GoT : Fnzjryy Gneyl xvyyrq va frnfba 7 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.
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Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Humans will be sent to Mars ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2035-10-16.
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A true general intelligence AI will be created ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2080-10-16.
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The conservatives will win the next general election in the UK ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-08-04; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-01-04.
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At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: We will learn that the True Patronus by itself can block the Killing Curse, no matter who casts each spell. ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-08-13; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: James Potter, Sirius Black, and Peter Pettigrew were Animagi. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-09-17; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-10.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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The Republicans will repeal the ACA by November 2015. *I'm going to withdraw this prediction as I wasn't thinking that the Republicans do not hold enough seats to override a presidential veto. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ren on 2014-11-11; known on 2015-11-08; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2015-11-04.
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Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Lannister (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.