Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 58% | 69% | 68% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 71 | 70 | 65 | 91 | 2 | 322 |
Displaying all predictions made by qznc. Filter by:
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Google still has more than 66% market share for search by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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Germany abolishes “EEG-Umlage” by 2025 [Lindner promise] ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2022-01-02; known on 2025-11-01.
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I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
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The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2023-01-01.
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TSLA price drops below $25 before 2025 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2021-07-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-07-21; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-21.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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in 2022, public health officials recommend that you get “your yearly COVID shot”, even if you have previously been vaccinated against COVID ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged right by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.
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Dune movie is released in October ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-11-01.
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Luca movie is released by Pixar in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-01.
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James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.
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VW.OS is canceled or sold+renamed in 5 years ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-09-21; known on 2025-09-20.
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Joe Biden will win the election in 2020 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shutterspeed on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged right by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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Germanys unemployment rate will be above 5.6% at the end of 2020 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-02-21.
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Germany RKI reports more than 1000 CoViD-19 cases on a day within the next month ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-08; known on 2020-07-08; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-07-11.
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German Corona warning app goes live in June ( 70% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-07; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-06-21.
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Tech – Apple announces AR or VR hardware during WWDC 2020. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-15; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-11.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-05-01.
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Germanys Corona-Warn-App has a release in May ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-06-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 350 on a single day in May 2020. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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COVID, Sweden – Deaths due to COVID-19 exceed 250 on a single day in May 2020. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-04-25; known on 2020-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-06-06.
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The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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People will use Wine (the windows non-emulator) on Windows to play older games within 20 years ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-20; known on 2040-04-20.
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Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Kindergartens in Germany will open again in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-08.
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Schools in Germany, Baden-Württemberg will open (at least partially) in April 27 ( 80% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01.
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Bars and clubs will open again in The Netherlands in 2020. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-11-08.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-02-22.
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Will take the US [at least] until May to get back under 1000 deaths a day again ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-05-01.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >3000 by the end of April. ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-04-18.
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Germany makes face masks mandatory (at least in certain places) in April ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-30; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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Face masks as fashion accessoir becomes a thing this year ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-25; known on 2020-12-30; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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Trump dies of Coronavirus in 2020 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-03-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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German schools open again after easter holidays ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-18; known on 2020-04-18; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-04-18.
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Italy has less than 100.000 COVID-19 cases by April ( 41% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-04-03.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in South Korea will be less than 100 by August ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by nortriptyline2 on 2020-04-03.
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Total COVID-19 deaths in China will be less than 4000 by August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-08-01.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Health, UK – COVID-2019 cases in the UK exceed 1000 by deadline. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-29; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-04-01.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100,000 ( 37% confidence; 37 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-04-10.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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Waymo offers rides to the airport this year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-08; known on 2020-12-30; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-01-01.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will be a Robotaxi available somewhere ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Waymo still uses safety drivers in 10 years or closes down ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Some car company will sell SAE level 3 cars in the next 10 years. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Javascript is still the dominant programming language in browsers by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Rogan will host a presidential debate in the next ten years ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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Someone sells a hoverboard by 2030 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-12-31.
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[The Economist predicts:] Britain gets a new monarch ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] Greta Thunberg wins Nobel peace prize ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-10-09.