Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 15 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-16.
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I fully complete all four projects in the RP project space by the end of March ( 30% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-04-10.
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Trump will be impeached ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-04-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 8 ( 20% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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SoftBank (SFTBY)'s market cap will cross $100B this FY , before 31st Mar 2018 ( 100% confidence )
Created by hara on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-04-08.
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I will take my car into town on Friday, not the bike or bus. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-04; known on 2018-04-06; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-06.
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As of January 1, 2020, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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As of January 1, 2019, there will be at least five YouTube videos with over three billion views each https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_most_viewed_YouTube_videos ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 5 billion views. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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Villanova will win the 2018 NCAA national championship ( 35% confidence )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-03; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-04-05.
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I will not attend S' birthday celebrations. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-03.
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Google's FeedBurner will survive 5 more years ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Gmail will survive 5 more years ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2013-05-04.
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Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Calendar will survive 5 more years ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Docs will survive 5 more years ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Desi will not send any messages at all to me ( 80% confidence )
Created by zvory on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-02; judged right by zvory on 2018-04-02.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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The Facebook group, 'Effective Egoism', will have between 100 to 190 members by March 31st 11:59 pm Pacific timezone. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-03-04; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by dchristie on 2018-04-01.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] April 1 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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andrew yang will be president ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kingsheepman on 2018-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-01.
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New Carly Rae Jepsen album announced in Q1 2018 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-04-01.
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Electron rocket to launch before the end of March. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Jotto999 on 2018-04-01.
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GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors donating less than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $20 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $13 million. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.
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GiveWell total money moved in 2016 from donors excluding Good Ventures who donate more than $100,000 will be between $10 million and $50 million. For comparison, the amount in 2015 was a little under $27 million (plus money with uncertain attribution). ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-02-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-31.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 25 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-31.
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I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.
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The listicle I just saw on Facebook “7 Complete Wastes of Money that Most People Don't Even Consider” will all be things that either (1) I've considered, (2) don't apply to me, or (3) save trivial amounts of money. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28; known on 2018-03-29; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28.
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Personal – I am routinely (at least briefly for at least 5 out of 7 days of the last week spent fully at my apartment) wearing ankle or wrist weights at the end of March 2018. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-28.
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As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known on 2018-03-27; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-03-27.
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One or more of Cipriani et al will respond to Scott Alexander's article on their new paper ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-02-27; known on 2018-03-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-03-27.
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If @m doesn't cancel the game 2018-03-22, I will be feeling well enough to come #illness #personal ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-23; known on 2018-03-24; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-26.
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Our DnD session will end before 20:00 ( 60% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-03-24; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-03-26.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] March 18 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-03-25.
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If I end up using my Gruzovichkoff order on 2018-03-23, I will pay for 3+ hours of loader's work ( 55% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-03-23; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-24.
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2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 4% ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.
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2017 Annual US GDP Growth < 2% ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-03-23.