Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 56% | 43% | 69% | 100% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 50 | 24 | 114 |
Displaying all predictions made by ahartell. Filter by:
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel plans to manipulate Harry (already a Horcrux) into making a Harry-Horcrux of Quirrel so neither can ever die ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: “A new chapter of HP:MoR, which would be more than two pages in length, will be posted” —Bugmaster ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-15.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.
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HP MoR: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Muke Tever on 2013-07-11.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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HP MOR Ch81 Harry's solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
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GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Hunger Games film will not fail (>= 60% on Rotten Tomatoes). ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Christopher on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-03-24; judged right by Christopher on 2012-03-23.
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I got a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.
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I got an 80 or higher on my calc quiz. ( 100% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-10.
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“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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I scored a 90 or higher on my calc quiz today. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-01-26; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-17.
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I will be able to solve a rubix cube in less than 1 minute and 30 seconds by July ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
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I will not open facebook between now and midnight. ( 100% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-05.
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I will go to school tomorrow and friday. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-06.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will finish reading GEB before I go to college. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-23; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-09-23.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.