Solar flare to harm life on Earth
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
- kish estimated 100% on 2012-01-10
- lavalamp estimated 45% and said ““harm” is extremely vague.” on 2012-01-20
- JoshuaZ said “Can’t estimate without a more well-defined notion of harm. ” on 2012-01-20
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-01-26.
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