Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
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2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: Sam will post 5 or more blog posts. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will go to the emergency room, for myself or someone else. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend grad school. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: We’ll buy a new car. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will run a marathon. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will attend Burning Man. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: Sam will attend Burning Man. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-09-05.
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2016 predictions: I will make >5 new drawings that I like enough to post in my Facebook album. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-06-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29; known on 2016-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-28.
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I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
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Gift from N is a kitchen appliance. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2015-12-28.
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Increased potassium will correlate with decreased muscular soreness. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30.
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By 2030, EU will have 7% of the estimated 300 million 25-34 yr old graduates ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-10; known on 2030-12-25.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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All 14 people who currently say on FB that they are going to my going-away dinner will actually go. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-12-02; known on 2015-12-07; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-06.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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University of Ottawa yoga class that was cancelled due to cultural appropriation complaints will be un-cancelled in the next month. ( 13% confidence; 53 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-23; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
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I will be accepted for an internship at DeepMind. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-03.
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The Secular Solstice event is able to raise $6125 by Nov. 18th. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-11-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-19.
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Sam's comment will reach 1000 karma. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-13; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-11-17.
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JT will defriend me on Facebook by January 1, 2016 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-10.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I will do at least 15 pomodoro-equivalents today. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-13.
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I can sell my car within 2 weeks for $3k ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2016-01-03.
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I think I will get an A in geosci ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bruh on 2015-11-09; known on 2015-12-16.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2016 Presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gsastry on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will run into another Leeloo on Halloween. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-29; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-11-01.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-07-16.
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Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-05.
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I will miss one of tomorrow's flights. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-19.
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DRACO proves effective. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2040-01-01.
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Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.
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I will lack living funds for at least one month next year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-12-16.
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KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.
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Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.
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In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
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2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.
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I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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I will have at least one more paper published before September 15, 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2019-12-25.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.
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Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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The average grade for the test for my Math 101 students in the 1 PM class will be higher than that for the 10 AM class. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.
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Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
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If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.
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US obesity rate above 28.9% in 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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Burning man predictions: I will get at least 1 bug bite. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will have a nightmare involving bugs. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: Giant penis tower will be there again. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will see Vika. ( 99% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: We’ll miss our connecting flight on the way there. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will cry >0 times. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will see >0 topless girls. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Burning man predictions: I will throw up on the plane. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-22; known on 2015-09-07; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-07.
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Uber will be banned from Manhattan by the end of 2016. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikayla on 2015-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-01-01.
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Raccoons will show up between 8/20/2015 and 8/27/2015 and destroy more of my water lilies. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ialdabaoth on 2015-08-21; known on 2015-08-28.
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Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-24.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-17.
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I won't get hit by a bus today. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-08-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-13.
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A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.
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Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.
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Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.
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Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.