Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 50% | 65% | 80% | 94% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 28 | 26 | 45 | 70 | 11 | 201 |
Displaying all predictions made by WilliamKiely. Filter by:
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I will read at least 36 books in 2016. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.
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From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.
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From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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The Fort Galt building will not be up within a year of today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-05-17; known on 2016-05-17; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-05-18.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.