Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Joe Biden ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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TJ Warren regresses and averages < 25ppg on <65 TS% from here until the end of the season + postseason ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-10-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-25.
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The AI will beat the human pilot in the AlphaDogfight Trials. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-24.
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I will get the UHaul truck I reserved on Saturday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a Uhaul truck on Saturday ( 85% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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Packing the major items in our apartment will take less than 3 hours ( 75% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a truck by the end of the weekend ( 90% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of August. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – Ofqual switches to using teacher predicted grades rather than their current school + relative ranking model to assign exam scores by deadline. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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Politics, UK – New agency specifically for handling pandemics announced by the UK government by end of 2020-08-23. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-23.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=15% contained by Sunday 9AM Pacific ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-23.
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New ice cream will be gone before Friday evening ( 30% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by Radish on 2020-08-23.
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I am still at SFDC in 5 years ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2020-08-22.
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My squat rack will arrive on or before august 21. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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Personal – I successfully fully download, including content, sufficient to launch, MSFS 2020 by end of 2020-08-18. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-08-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-21.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >100k acres affected by Sunday 9am ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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[The LNU lightning complex fire will be] >=50k acres affected by Sunday 9AM ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by finback on 2020-08-20.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2021. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-09; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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If I meet with Adam and Anna today, I'm going to find it as effective or more effective than our other convos. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2020-08-18.
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I will stream to twitch over 20 hours this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-08-17.
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I am going to have a second iteration of my conversation with Jack sometime in August. ( 83% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2020-08-17.
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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I'll use predictionbook at least three more days by Sunday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-17.
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By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.
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I will finish 70% of the problems within “MIT: The Missing Semester” this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Stephen on 2020-08-16.
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Tech – Garmin confirms that its outage during July 2020 was the result of ransomware or malware more broadly by the end of August 2020. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-08-16.
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I will see C at the A moveout this weekend ( 99% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-16.
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I meet Gl. this week ( 56% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I'll finish reading Superforecasting this week ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged right by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have more money on PS than I deposited at the end of the week ( 54% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have finished the classic macro + accounting readings on Sunday ( 71% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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I will have contacted Amr. by the end of the week ( 37% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-10; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-08-16.
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The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.