Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Pill was Bupropion ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-10.
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Night 38: pill was Vitamin D ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-09.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 65% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.
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GJP: #1074 Will Libyan government forces regain control* of the city of Bani Walid before 6 February 2012? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-31; known on 2012-02-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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I will obtain a PS3 on or before 6/8/2012. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.
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Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within a month ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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Night 37: pill was Vitamin D ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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I'll get an A in “history of psychology” ( 50% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-27; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-08.
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I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.
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androidx86 generic_x86-20120208.iso will boot to a working GUI in VMWare ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-08.
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Pill was Bupropion ( 35% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-07.
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Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.
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Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.
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Night 36: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-07.
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“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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Night 35: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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“Rescind mandate asking Catholic employers to provide contraceptives” petition to the White House will reach 25k signatures by the end of this week. ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-06.
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Salminen 2012's “reasoning abilities”/“reasoning skills” measure will be a matrix-style IQ/Gf/fluid intelligence test. ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.
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Average daily global oil production (crude+condensate according to EIA figures) will not exceed 75 million barrels/day in any month of 2011 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2011-01-11; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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“The U.S Department of Transportation Bureau of Transportation Statistics (www.bts.gov) will report a lower number of total highway vehicle miles traveled in 2010 than in 2005.” ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-01-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-05.
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papermachine will not donate to the Internet Archive ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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I will continue to work on the game “The City” by next month. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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Night 34: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-02-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-04.
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Night 33: pill was Vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-03.
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Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.
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Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.
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Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.
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Eureqa will generate a (reasonably) elegant relation between the marks and attendance of Computer Science and Statistics. ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-02-03.
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I will sleep more than 5 hours tonight, although I took Modafinil. ( 60% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-03.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-03; judged right by Lemmih on 2012-02-02.
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My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.
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GJP: #1026 Will Joseph Kabila remain president of the Democratic Republic of the Congo through 31 January 2012? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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Night 32: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-02-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“Submit ACTA to Senate” petition will reach 25k signatures by the end of this month. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-02.
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'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2012-06-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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GJP: #1038 Will Hamad bin Isa al-Khalifa remain King of Bahrain through 31 January 2012? ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.
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“The Prime Minister of New Zealand as a result of the 2011 New Zealand General Election was an electorate candidate for the National Party in that election and/or appears on that party's list.” -ipredict ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-01.
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Pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Lemmih on 2012-02-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will host a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and I will successfully convince either gwern or drethelin that I attended Grognor's meetup. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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GJP: #1039 Will Bashar al-Assad remain President of Syria through 31 January 2012? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.