Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by akarlin. Filter by:
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Joe Biden will win the 2020 US Elections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-09-26; known on 2021-01-05.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
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Vote on Russian constitutional amendment on July 1 to get more than 65% support ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-07-05; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-03.
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Russia's GDP will decline by more than 10% this year #coronavirus , https://twitter.com/akarlin88/status/1240818241502658566 (duplicating March 20 bet) ( 50% confidence )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-03-15.
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This year 2020 will be warmest on record (duplicating PredictIt bet from this Jan, odds there now at 50%) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-01-15; judged right by akarlin on 2021-01-17.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.