Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 48% | 60% | 69% | 73% | 92% | 75% | |
Sample Size | 44 | 73 | 48 | 45 | 62 | 4 | 276 |
Displaying all predictions made by RoryS. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Conditional on Gary Johnson getting 15% in 5 national polls, the Commission on Presidential Debates will invite him for a debate with Trump and Hillary. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-19.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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My date with the pastry chef will be depressing ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-10-04; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-10-30.
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Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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Murray will win Wimbledon ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-10; known on 2016-07-10; judged right by Waring on 2016-07-10.
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William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-08; known on 2056-08-07.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Liverpool will win against Sevilla ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-18.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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I will get a first in at least three-quarters of my modules ( 35% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-05-15; known on 2016-09-20.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Lewandowski to transfer to Arsenal in Summer 2016 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-09-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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T will reciprocate for R ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-24; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-02.
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I will do a postgrad degree in anthropology in 2017-18 ( 8% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in philosophy in 2017-18 ( 31% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in computer science in 2017-18 ( 22% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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I will do a postgrad degree in neuroscience or cognitive science in 2017-18 ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-19; known on 2017-09-20.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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Manchester City wins 2016 Champions League ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-04.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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The money will be in my account on the scheduled date ( 55% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-12-02.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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X will (at least claim) to have heard of Massimo Pigliucci ( 7% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-07-05.
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In a survey of at least 30 people around 18-22, greater than 50% will find X more attractive than Y ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-07-01.
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There will be a significant mainstream Conservative position defending unisex toilets by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-12-31.
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My view of truth will be closer to that of Rorty-James style pragmatism than Blackburn-Price style pragmatism by the end of the year ( 30% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31.
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I will have a higher average score in math modules than essay modules this year ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-12-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-07-10.
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Chelsea will make the Top 4 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-04-19.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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My paper will be accepted for the Munich conference ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-20.
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I will still have a bivalvegan, or mostly bivalvegan (defined as buying meat/dairy products, if at all, perhaps once/twice a month) diet in three years time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-10; known on 2018-12-31.
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No one will use the Prediction Book link to make a concrete, quantitative prediction about Syria ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-12-02; known on 2016-03-12; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-14.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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Nathan and I will do the thing this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-30.
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I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
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I will receieve “Reasons and Persons” and “On What Matters” by Derek Parfit as Christmas gifts this year. ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-26; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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My money will have gone through when I check tonight ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-11-15.
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I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I know tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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We will stop seeing each other ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-16.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.
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Under the current Conservative Party government: the UK will not leave the EU and the Human Rights Act will not be scrapped. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nachlader on 2015-07-16; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-18.
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I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-14.
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Modafinil to be more popular in US in 2025 than 2015 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-16.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Noam Chomsky to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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P will be at contra tonight. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-07-03; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-07-04.
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My confidence that an anarcho-capitalist society is feasible will go up after reading David Friedman's 'The Machinery of Freedom' ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-21.
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I will meet up with X this week ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-01; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-07-06.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Y will be online when I check ( 85% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
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I will have a new message when I check Facebook ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
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Ryan & I will have an anecdote that is equal to or better than the prostitute story by the end of this year ( 3% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will see someone I know at, or on the way to Pizza Express tomorrow ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-06-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-21.
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This piece is a parody: http://thoughtcatalog.com/emily-goldstein/2015/05/get-rid-of-white-people/ ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-26; known on 2015-06-02.
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Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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My dad will smile when he sees me after coming back home for the summer ( 96% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-12.
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I will get an amusing story from my next Tinder date ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-08-01.
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We will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-02; known on 2015-06-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-02.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Arsenal will win the F.A Cup ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-30.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.