Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
'the United States has a historically hot summer 2011.' —orthonormal ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
“Copyright and patent issues will continue to be stalemated in Congress, with no major legislation on either subject.” —FfT ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-13; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
'The market for Internet set-top boxes like Google TV and Apple TV will continue to be chaotic throughout 2011, with no single device taking a decisive market share lead. The big winners will be online services like Netflix, Hulu, and Pandora that work wi ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
'A designer will have revenues of over one million US dollars with a single 3D printed product in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
'3D Systems will launch a 3D printing service for consumers in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
'3D printed products will win at least two Red Dot Design Awards in 2011' —Joris Peels ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.
-
'I think Apple’s Macintosh Pro line of computers is dead.' —Robert X Cringely ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Michael Green did not have any explosives on him. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RobFisher on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Jack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
I will come to respect those people who endeavor to know systems of thought, fail, and yet still pretend comprehension/mastery when presenting the topic to others. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Supreme Court will uphold individual mandate in “ObamaCare”. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DetroitDan on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
reddit.com/r/GEB/ will fizzle out and not finish GEB. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-12-28; known on 2012-07-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
DNB/nicotine day 2: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
-
Ron Paul won't have significant speaking role in 2012 Republican convention ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27.
-
Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.
-
All 9 wounded bystanders in NY Midtown incident were shot by the cops rather than the original shooter ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-08-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-26.
-
Bruce Springsteen will play “She's the One” on August 24. ( 60% confidence )
Created by fistpo on 2012-08-04; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by fistpo on 2012-08-26.
-
Shirley frozen or similarly harmed by magic at end of Fate/Zero Ep 18. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26; known on 2012-08-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26.
-
Apple and Samsung won't settle before the jury verdict ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25.
-
DNB/nicotine: 1: active? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-25.
-
LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.
-
Email will be sent once ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged wrong by Wes on 2012-08-21.
-
Emails are sent twice ( 90% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-08-21; judged right by Wes on 2012-08-21.
-
“Will Rick Perry to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012? —Intrade” ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-08-27; judged wrong by nohat on 2012-08-21.
-
Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by nohat on 2012-08-21.
-
“Image recorded by NASA Curiosity on Mars surface to be published in 2012” -ipredict ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21.
-
Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year, due to SDr's petition campaign. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-20.
-
Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
-
I will average at least one prediction per week on PredictionBook for the next year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-17.
-
I will pass the written exam for the 'Crime Analyst' position on 08/16/2012. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-10; known on 2012-08-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.
-
Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
-
I will complete The Complete Idiot’s Guide to Statistics within the next 6 weeks. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-16.
-
Including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million) ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15.
-
Lebron will continue to hog ball control in the 2012 olympics (measured by Chris Paul won't have more than 1 assist / per game more than Lebron) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
Usain Bolt breaks previous 100m world record during 2012 Olympics ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
Michael Phelps will not solely win the most gold medals in 2012 (he may tie, but won't win the most outright). ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-09-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
Anne Romney's horse will place in 2012 Olympics dressage competition. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-28; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
-
App.net will try to find a way to get money from people who have pledged at join.app.net, even if they don't hit their $500K goal. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-08-09; known on 2012-08-20; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-08-12.
-
Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.
-
Dwight Howard will go to New Jersey Nets ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-11; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-11.
-
GB will out-medal Aus in the 2012 olympic games ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-08-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-08-11.
-
Greece will exit the euro within the next 2 months ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-11; known on 2012-08-11; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-08-11.
-
Mitt Romney will not pick a minority or woman or non-Christian or atheist or unmarried or gay person as VP (i.e. no surprises!) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-08-11.
-
During 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC. ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.