Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.
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Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger is female. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stanger will dc. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Person I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.
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Person I'm chatting with is a girl. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.
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Will clear third round of Code Junkie. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Will clear second round of Code Junkie. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Will clear first round of Code Junkie. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Pauleen turns out to be shorter than me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.
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Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.
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I will have completed the first 19 CS-2 practicals by the end of this year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.
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It will take Jonathan longer than 30 minutes to bike home. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Lemmih on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Lemmih on 2011-12-26.
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Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.
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Day 8: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-25; known on 2011-12-25; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-25.
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I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-25.
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The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-24; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-24.
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YF will order modafinil within a month. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-24.
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Will try the binary filehandling program out today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-23; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-23.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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I will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will try out the binary file program today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Call was from the Mindspark guys. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Akshay finds his lab manual in his bag. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Succeed on the TOVP tender ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.
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MC will order modafinil within one month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.
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Day 7: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-21.
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I will try out the binary file program today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-21.
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I will complete Project Euler #5 within the next 7 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21.
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I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-20.
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Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.
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Day 6: pill was modafinil. ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-20; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-20.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1008: By 31 December 2011, will the World Trade Organization General Council or Ministerial Conference approve the “accession package” for WTO membership for Russia? ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.