Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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First virtual tourism in 7 years. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-03 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-13 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-03-26 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-04-10 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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[Most people in England will be legally able to meet socially in a group of six in private indoor places before] 2021-05-19 ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2021-08-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Personal – I will have fully left my current position by Sept. 10th ( 80% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by EricClampton on 2021-09-10.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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We move to Level 2 (or 2.5) next Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-08; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08.
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Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-09-07.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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The storm will be “bad” in NY (3 in. rain) History ( 20% confidence )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30; known on 2021-09-03; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-04.
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My wife will feel better. Because of past track record, circumstances of her condition ( 80% confidence )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-09-02; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-09-03.
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Everybody (who wants to) is vaccinated against CoViD-19 in Germany by September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be made available to the general populace in August, 2021. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jim_P on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by qznc on 2021-09-01.
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Nguyễn đăng cảnh 80 Chondrosarcoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Vũ Thị Tăng 66 Meningioma at right cerebellapontine angle ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Ngô Đăng Khoa 66 u túi mật xâm lấn gan ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Phạm thị xuân thu 46 tvdd di trú ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Nguyen Luong Nhat Anh 15 glioma doi thi ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Phan anh trường ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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I will have at least 4 headaches this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-23; known on 2021-08-30; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
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I will reflect back on today as a disappointment ( 70% confidence )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
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The New York Giants will lose. ( 70% confidence )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-29; judged right by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-30.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-08-29.
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Cystic intracranial mass. Hpe low grade astrocytoma? Brain abscess unlikely. Rn 1070182. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-08-27.
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Reminiscence with Hugh Jackson (released on the 20th of August) will not have an audience score in the 60 percentile (60%-69%) here. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cgopher on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by cgopher on 2021-08-25.
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We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.
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Personal – Successfully make it home without getting stranded by 03:00AM 2021-08-25 after being in London during 2021-08-24. ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-25.
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Nguyễn Ngọc Cường 41 Dot sign Rathke cleft cyst 80% Macroadenoma 10% ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-27; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
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Trần thị huê 39 Adenoma ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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trần thị thảo 41 Lao hay di căn đơn ổ lao 60% di căn 10% khác? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-26; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Cầm Văn Truyền 17 PA hố sau: 70% ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-07-29; known on 2021-08-19; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Ng Thị Tần 52 U tá tràng xâm lấn túi mật hay u túi mật xâm lấn tá tràng? Khí trong đường mật có phải do k tá tràng xâm lấn thông với đường mật không? ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-09; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-24.
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Đặng quốc đại 81 U đồi thị Gbm or glioma ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-16; known on 2021-08-23; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Trần xuân nam 17 Rò dnt xoang sàng trước ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-09-03; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Triplebyte will no longer exist as a company on August 20 2021, and if sold will have sold for less than $48.1M. ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-03-21; known on 2021-08-20; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOM June 2021 ( 50% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-08-21.
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Politics, US – 1% or less of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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Politics, US – 4.5% or more of absentee ballots are rejected in the November 2020 presidential election. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-08-20.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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Malaysia will get the first gold medal in Olympic Tokyo 2021 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-07; known on 2021-08-08; judged wrong by Akram1 on 2021-08-19.
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Steve from Minecraft is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-15; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-08-18.