Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bagricula. Filter by:
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'Laser guns are in naval use' in 2016 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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Humanity will experience an outside context problem before 2050 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.