Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Day 5: pill was modafinil. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2011-12-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 15% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: a regular dies. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: Travis Marshall is not the final villain. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is (specifically) a Dexter fangirl. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is a serial killer. ( 15% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Dexter season 6: lab girl is more than a thief. ( 65% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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France to lose AAA credit rating before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012 —Intrade ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-13.
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A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.
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GJP: #1045 Will a trial for Saif al-Islam Gaddafi begin in any venue by 31 March 2012? ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1044 Will the United Kingdom's Tehran embassy officially reopen by 29 February 2012? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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I will have share up and running today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will have LWT up and running today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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“Christopher Hitchens will publicly confess his sins to God, however he finds Him between now and the time of his passing, and accept Christ as his Lord, Savior and pathway to God. He will do this in a meaningful rather than a flippant, facetious or hyp ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-16.
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Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.
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I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.
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Tomorrow is results day. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.
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My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.
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My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.
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My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1007: Will there be a lethal confrontation involving government forces in the South China Sea or East China Sea by 31 December 2011? ( 7% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-14.
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I will add at least 20 cards to my M1 deck today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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Day 4: pill was modafinil. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-14.
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I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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Within a month, the British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2011-12-14.
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The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.
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Day 3: pill was modafinil. ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-13.
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I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will update my Ubuntu install this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will attend lectures tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.
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Day 2: pill was modafinil ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-12.
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Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.
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I will leave for my parents house by 3:00 today. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by RobertLumley on 2011-12-12.
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Tonight, I will find a raw txt — I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-11.