Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 82% | 57% | 89% | 85% | 94% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 11 | 28 | 27 | 26 | 70 | 22 | 184 |
Displaying all predictions made by HonoreDB. Filter by:
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White Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Targaryen (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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'Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D.' will continue for a second season. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bluebart on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-09-24; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The title of OOTS #930 will be “The” or “The Rift”. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-14.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Democrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Republicans to have fewer seats in the House after the midterm election than they currently have (233). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known on 2018-12-31.
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I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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Dumbledore is the mastermind behind the troll plot. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-03-09.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoke the Imperius-debts of other Wizengamot members ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be threaten to destroy Azkaban ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be reveal the truth about Bellatrix's escape ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be offer the Wizengamot Voldemort's true identity (Quirrel) ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be accept Hermione's imprisonment but order the Dementors to leave her alone ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will involve destroying one of the Dementors ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner in some way ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to alter Hermione's testimony to something easily falsifiable ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to affect Lucius in some way ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be using the Time-turner to smuggle Hermione out under the Cloak ( 4% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be ask for a trial by combat ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be have Quirrel make Bella confess to the crime ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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HP MoR: Priori Incantatum ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gryffinp on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-29; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be nothing (failure) ( 6% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Nobody in the LW discussion thread will predict Harry's actual attempted solution (regardless of whether it fails). ( 25% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MOR Ch81 Harry's solution is to use the time turner to go back in time and frame Lord Jugson for doing it by tampering with His/Hermoines/Dracos wands and false memory charming a student. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pringlescan4 on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch 81: Harry's solution will be to set his hair on fire and run around in circles, screaming. ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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I will unsubscribe from Erfworld. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-27; known on 2012-07-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-06-26.
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My self-promoting link on /r/shakespeare will have karma >0 and <11. http://www.reddit.com/r/shakespeare/comments/oy0rb/the_tragedy_of_prince_hamlet_and_the_philosophers/ ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-02-02.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.
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In the comments of http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/, somebody will mention prediction markets in the next three days. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-16.
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In the next three days, somebody will post an idea on http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/ that I find novel and intriguing. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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Nobody will independently recreate my idea in response to http://lesswrong.com/r/lesswrong/lw/9eo/a_call_for_solutions_and_a_tease_of_mine/. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-16; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-18.
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NDAA 2012, H.R. 1540 will be seen as the “end of democracy” in the USA within 5 years. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-01.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.
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The Dow Jones will finish 2012 below 12000 pts ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.