Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 23% | 38% | 38% | 82% | 86% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 22 | 48 | 66 | 73 | 103 | 15 | 327 |
Displaying all predictions made by NathanMcKnight. Filter by:
-
By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
-
The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
-
Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
-
Wow. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-10; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-12.
-
0-15 faithless electors ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-29.
-
16-32 faithless electors ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
-
Clinton wins by 5 points or more. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
-
Whoever wins the State of Pennsylvania will win the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-11-06; known on 2016-12-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
-
Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
-
Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
-
Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
-
HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
-
Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
hillary clinton wins the US presidential race ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-08-23; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
-
Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.
-
Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Nate Silver's “Polls Only” model proves to be the most accurate of 538's three models on election day. ( 60% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-14.
-
Hillary wins South Carolina ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
-
The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
-
The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
-
Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
-
The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Democrats will win 370+ electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Complete lack of cheesecake. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-09; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
-
“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
-
Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
-
Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
-
Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
-
In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
-
Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
-
Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
-
Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07.
-
Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
-
Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
-
Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
-
Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
-
Trump will take fewer than 170 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
-
HRC will take at least 280 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
-
HRC will take at least 330 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 55% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
-
1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
-
Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
-
The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Clinton chooses Michael B. Coleman as running mate. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
-
House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
Third party candidate gets more votes than Trump. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
-
Trump takes fewer electoral votes than Goldwater. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
-
Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
At least one senator or representative to change parties before the election. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-07; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-03.
-
Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
-
Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
-
Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
-
Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
-
Establishment Republicans split from GOP and start a third party. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
Greater than 15% of Republicans vote for Clinton or third party. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-05-27.
-
Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
-
Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.
-
Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.
-
Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
-
Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
-
Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
-
Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
-
Guantanamo Bay detention facility to close before year end. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-23; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
-
Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.
-
Michael Bloomberg wins the 2016 presidential election. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Jane Kelly is nominated to replace Scalia. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-02-14; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-02.
-
Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
Sanders will endorse Clinton as the 2016 Democratic nominee. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by Faceh on 2016-07-12.