Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Brent crude trades below $20 at some point in 2015 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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TTIP will not come into force ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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“Within two generations, the Iranian people will become an anchor of freedom for the middle east.” ( 20% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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US Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx ) ( 99% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
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I will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-12-31.
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On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.50 ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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On Dec 31, 2015, the price of regular gas at my local gas station will be > $3.10 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 Sam will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post more than 25 blog posts. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Before Dec 31, 2015 I will post at least 12 blog posts. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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During 2015 I will lose my wallet. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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During 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Wumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 I will have a baby. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will still work for my current company at the end of 2015. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year living in a Rationalist house. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year still living in the Cambridge area. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam will be a vegetarian or a pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.