Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 39% | 66% | 61% | 81% | 77% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 23 | 29 | 23 | 16 | 13 | 2 | 106 |
Displaying all predictions made by InquilineKea. Filter by:
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Quora will independently survive to 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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At least one of the Apollo astronauts will die by the end of 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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At least one Nobel Laureate in Physics will have become a centenarian by 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-16.
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Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.
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Hans Dehmelt will become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2022-09-16.
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Uber CEO to actually buy Half a Million Autonomous Electric Cars from Tesla By 2020 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31.
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PewDiePie to still be the #1 YouTube celebrity by the end of 2016 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31.
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Quora to become top-100 site (measured by Alexa) by the end of 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Jimmy Carter to become the longest-living president in US History ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02.
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voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Ellen Pao will no longer be CEO of Reddit by September 1, 2015 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-07-10.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2015 than it does right now. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.