Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
-
USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
-
France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
-
UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
-
I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
-
Before 2017, I will switch from Ubuntu back to Windows for most of my desktop computing ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
-
Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
-
NGE: 4.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Stay Here” ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
-
NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by what is recognizably Anno ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
-
NGE Rebuild: the fourth wall will be broken by a character ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
-
NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing Rebuild. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
-
NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
-
'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
-
“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
-
2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
-
2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
-
2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
-
Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
-
The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.
-
By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
-
There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.
-
Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
-
Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
-
At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
-
Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
-
I will be stranded in Sudbury, when the snow causes a greater than three hour delay in my travels East. ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-16.
-
Next President of the US will have to deal with(militarily or otherwise) Dalwa al Islamyya. It will still exist and be problematic by the time the next president assumes office. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-02-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
-
Dalwa al Islamyya fails to detonate a nuclear weapon (incl dirty bomb with 1+ fatality) in the continental US in 2016 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
-
Maker culture grew in 2015, as measured by maker faire audience ( http://makerfaire.com/ / http://makerfaire.com/bay-area-2015/sponsors/ ) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-27.
-
US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
-
1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph ) ( 97% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16.
-
week of dec 22, the Central Bank of Turkey will meet, and do central-banky things. ( 93% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-01-06; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25.
-
At least 12 billion paid 160 trillion free mobile app downloads in 2015 on all platforms combined. ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11.
-
more people globally will have cellphones than household electricity in 2015 ( 69% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14.
-
Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
-
War between india & pakistan 2015 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13.
-
In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-07-01.
-
Higher tuition in 2015 causes stress in students in canada ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-08-01.
-
increased tuition in canada causes increased stress on professors (contributing cause) (2015) ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-02.
-
Higher pressure on unions due to higher pressure on professors in canada (in 2015.) ( 68% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2017-01-08.
-
US Federal Reserve stuck near the 0 bound (say, <1.5% with no willingness to increase it further in the immediate future) by Jan 1, 2016 (see http://www.global-rates.com/interest-rates/central-banks/central-bank-america/fed-interest-rate.aspx ) ( 99% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
-
War between North and South Korea breaks out by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-31.
-
Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
-
WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
-
All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
-
In 2016 Tesla Motors will sell a <$30,000 electric car. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2017-01-03.
-
US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
-
Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
-
English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
-
By the end of 2020, the obesity rate among adults 20 years or older in the United States will drop from 34.9% in 2012 to 30%… +/- .9 percent. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-04; known on 2020-12-31.
-
Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
When I finish travelling the world and come home, I will be glad I did and feel satisfied and proud of myself. I will feel like I am wiser. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
-
I bet that when I get done with taking the PE, traveling around the world for ~14 months, I'll get a job in web development in Raleigh and invest in rental properties and hang out with Jay. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2018-02-23.
-
At least 3 more people in the US will get the bubonic plague by year-end 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-01-02; judged unknown by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-12-26.
-
Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-25; known on 2025-11-02.
-
The @VegAssist Twitter bot will be banned before July 2016. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
-
Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
-
Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
-
Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
-
KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.
-
In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
-
Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
Of the 7 satellites of IRNSS satellite navigation constellation, 4 are already in orbit while the remaining 3 will be in place by March 2016. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
-
The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.
-
Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2022-12-25.
-
Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2025-07-01.
-
The US to have a population between 300 million and 340 million on January 1, 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
-
Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
-
Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
-
The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates above 1% before the end of 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-09-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.
-
2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
-
In the Republican primary Kasich to win Ohio, New Hampshire and at least one other state ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-05-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-03-02.
-
Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
-
By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01.
-
From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
-
From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
-
From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
-
From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
-
From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
-
From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
-
From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.