Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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There will be at least two Democratic Presidential primary debates for the next US Presidential election. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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US official unemployment rate to remain between 3% and 7.5% through January 1, 2020. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-07-22.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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I will have read 5 novels by the end of this year ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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A new Mersenne prime found by January 1, 2018 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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I will play at least one game of chess with R.B.S. before we leave for New Haven. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23.
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The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FarOutFuture1988 on 2015-05-21; known on 2045-02-01.
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Democrat to win popular vote in 2016 with at least 57% of the popular vote. ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will accidentally buy non-bivalvegan food by the end of the year. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Slatestarcodex will publish a reply to Ozy's piece within the next two weeks. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-04.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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There is no odd perfect number N such that N is not divisible by a 6th power of a prime- proven by January 1, 2045. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-19; known on 2045-01-01.
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Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-17; known on 2029-05-18.
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The Fort Galt building will not be up within a year of today. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-05-17; known on 2016-05-17; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-05-18.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2022-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the Deutschland on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 4th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2020. ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2020-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.
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By 2033, the EM drive will be scientifically accepted and used to power vehicles. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-11; known on 2033-01-01; judged unknown by btrettel on 2015-05-11.
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Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quintopia on 2015-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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I will make a 100 predictions here by the end of May. i.e., around 4 per day. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Sam will complete his PhD. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2025-05-04.
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Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.
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Conditional on Bernie Sanders not winning the Presidential election Millasdiosturd will not be moving to Canada. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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Wie will only play Space Alert tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-04; judged right by Chri on 2015-05-04.
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At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
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I will read some more Less Wrong articles by the end of today. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-04.
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The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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I will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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The Bernie Sanders Campaign Subreddit, http://www.reddit.com/r/SandersForPresident/, will have more than 100,000 subscribers by the end of 2015. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Faceh on 2015-09-09.
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Bernie Sanders to be the next elected President of the United States ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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J. will have Eve and me over for dinner before December. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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I will publish a paper within 3 years concerning generalizing the classical Jordan-Schur theorem. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-30.
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Should James Eagan Holmes be found guilty, he will be sentenced capital punishment. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will start writing at least one new fanfic widely available (such as on fanfic.net) before July 15, 2016. (By start I mean at least chapter available). ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-07-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-16.
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No student will get all the bonus questions on the exam. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Every bonus question on the exam will have at least one student get it right. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Final grades for my students will be in by May 14 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-14; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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I won't get the math tutor position. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
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Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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James Eagan Holmes, known perpetrator of the 2012 theater massacre in Aurora, CO, will be found not guilty by reason of insanity. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-08-07.
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Commercially sold driverless/self-driving cars in at least one OECD country by January 1 2032. ( 92% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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By 2020, at least 25% of colleges in the US in 2015 will be bankrupt or otherwise defunct. ( 11% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
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By 2020, marijuana will be widely used in the US to treat neurodenerative diseases and and multiple new drugs based on cannabis research will have been patented or in least final stages of FDA approval. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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By 2045, ZPP contained in P^(A,B) proven, where A is a ring isomorphism oracle, and B is an MSCP oracle. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2045-01-01.
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John Kasich will be the next President of the United States. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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I will clean up my room tomorrow. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will not burn my Pizza tonight. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26.
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By May 1, 2017, will be publicly known that the US government had head transplant technology. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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Lubos will not respond to Scott Aaronson's recent article or blog post before May 2nd. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-16.
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Before January 1 2045, no normal material substance (that is composed of atoms made from neutrons and protons with electrons) will be discovered that blocks more neutrinos than a factor of 10 over what a pure density argument would suggest. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will do at least 40 pushups today ( 85% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26.
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The /r/theButton will expire in 2 weeks ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by VoidChronos on 2015-04-25; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by VoidChronos on 2015-05-09.
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DN will drink tonight ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-25.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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H.A. will not schedule the test today. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-25.
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There will not be a thunderstorm when I go running. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by btrettel on 2015-04-24.
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[Long term] By 2200, the continent of Africa will be thriving, with a competitive economy and cities that rival those of other continents. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2200-01-01.
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I will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-02.
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Before 2019, a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate, a member of congress, or a then current governor, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential risk. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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DN will relapse and continue to smoke tobacco within a week ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by jesselevine on 2015-04-23.
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Total World population will begin stagnating around the late 2040s after relatively weak growth throughout the next 20 years, with most of that growth coming out of Africa and South-East Asia ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by OferBaratz on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by timujin on 2015-04-27.
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Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.
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I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.