Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Both backups fail ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05.
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at least one of the two new roundabouts in regina are replaced by traffic lights/normal intersections ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2025-01-01.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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I am currently doing the “Convict Conditioning” training program. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-07-26; known on 2018-07-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2018-07-23.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.
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GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.
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My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.
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a commercial aircraft will crash in the US before 2018, resulting in casualties. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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GoT : Fnzjryy Gneyl xvyyrq va frnfba 7 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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Section 702 renewed (or replaced with something that does roughly the same thing within 6 months) ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-28; known on 2017-12-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT has not incorrectly billed my bank account by the 1st of September 2017. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-22; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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2017 will be the second hottest year since 1880 according to the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index published by NASA/GISS. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by iCrown on 2018-01-19.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of August 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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ETC forks in relation to https://predictionbook.com/predictions/183982 before ETH ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Price of ETH at 2017-07-20 00:37 UTC+0 will be higher than NOW (2017-07-19 21:37 UTC+0) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-07-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-07-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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The Republicans will have 55 or more seats in the senate following the 2018 election. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iCrown on 2017-07-18; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.
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I will decide to pursue a career in biology during the next 2 months #personal ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-09-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-10-15; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-26.
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Maduro shot within 30 days of Óscar Pérez publicly posting bitcoin address ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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Trump will spend 35% of his presidency at Mar a Lago before September 2017 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-09-06.
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I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-13; known on 2030-12-31.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-12-23.
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Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard dies before the start of the 9th of August 2017. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-28.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
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I get my damage deposit back for my apartment (conditional on moving out / deadline extended as needed) ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week. ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-05.
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Politics, Venezuela – Oscar Perez found and captured by the government by the 6th of July. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.
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Politics, Venezuela – Helicopter used in attack on Supreme Court is found before the 6th of July. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-06.
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Ubuntu 17.10 released ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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Debian boots successfully without breaking Ubuntu or Linpus on Hedy (my laptop) ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25.
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I have a job different from the one I had on 6/25/17. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-09-21.
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Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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aljazeera shut down ( 6% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-23; known on 2017-07-04; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-04.
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Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-06-26; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-26.
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If I receive the screen and it works, then during one month of usage I won't get annoyed with its dead pixels (if any). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-08-20.
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I ordered matte AUO B140HAN01.3 screen on ebay. I will get exactly this screen. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-01.
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I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-20.
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I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.
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TheDAO drainer is a bitcoin early adapter who is intentionally trying to take down ethereum in some sense ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-06-18.
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Britain will leave the EU as a “soft Brexit”, keeping the four freedoms. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-06-20; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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TheDAO drainer is a state agency, such as the CIA ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-06-18.
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-06-22; judged right by penten on 2017-06-23.
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I will step on Mars before I die ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2117-01-01.
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today $ACTIVITY_W begins late and I show up early and end up wasting my time ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-19.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-08-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in half a year ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-01-16; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-19.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in a year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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I will get compensation >= $3k within next 8 years because of my arrest at the protest #no_research ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2025-06-13.
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Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-25.
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Some new form factor than cell phones/handheld robots start to credibly threaten the dominance of cell phones/handheld robots/laptops/tablets/desktop for near term future ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-18; known on 2018-12-31.
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A candidate supported by United Russia will be chosen as president in 2018 elections ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by crabman on 2018-03-20.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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В этом году (2017) выйдет последняя книга цикла Веры Камши “Отблески Этерны” ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Alaric on 2018-01-04.
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Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.
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Half of world GDP is China. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-18.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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Macron will complete his term successfully ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Macron will win the French 2020 elections ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Donald Trump would NOT get Impeached ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-06.
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Politics, UK – Someone in a firm or government, including local government, resigns on or before the 15th of August in connection to errors made in connection to the Grenfell Tower fire. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-30.
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Politics, UK – Arrests made in connection to an investigation into the Grenfell Tower fire before 15th of June 2018. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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my social media activity will get me fired this summer ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Community, EA – Ethtruism.com's affiliated AMF fundraiser will get donations amounting to saving at least two lives in expectation, by the 14th of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that their policy or backed legislative plan is now to scrap the reduction to housing benefit for those with a spare bedroom, with the announcement coming before the end of July 2017. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – The Conservative Party announces that plans for cuts to winter fuel payments are either scrapped or significantly reduced before the end of July 2017. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017, the DUP vote in favour, and as of their most recent public statements are not in coalition with the Conservatives. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Conservative Party announces, in some manner, the intent to retain the triple lock on pensions throughout the current parliament, before the end of July 2017. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 3 months) ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-11.
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Backdoor in crypto used by Signal/libsignal (revealed to public in 5 years) ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-12; known on 2021-06-10; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.
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Mexico will pay for (at least 50% of) the cost of the United States southern border wall. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-22; known on 2023-01-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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It actually does, in fact, storm today here ( 79% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.