Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to not be a member of the European Union ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known on 2019-07-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] arrested within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.
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U.S. Federal Reserve lowers interest rate below 100bps before end of 2020 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win more shooting medals than the USA ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most karate medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Cuba to win more wrestling medals than the USA ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Russia to win the most wrestling medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] North Korea to win more weightlifting medals than the USA ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] France to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win the most judo medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win the most weightlifting medals of any country or Olympic committee ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Japan to win more medals than any other country or Olympic committee ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] China to win at least one medal in weightlifting ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan (or “Chinese Taipei”) to win at least one medal ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[2020 Tokyo Olympics] Taiwan to compete as “Chinese Taipei” ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-17; known on 2020-08-09; judged right by Cato on 2021-08-11.
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[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Han Kuo-yu (韓國瑜) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-16; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
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Kamala Harris will be the Democratic nominee ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2019-07-12; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-19.
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Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07; judged wrong by bendini on 2022-02-11.
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AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-11-22.
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[US politics] The 2020 Democratic VP candidate to be one of the participants in the July 2019 debate ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12.
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Rafael Nadal will win Wimbledon 2019. ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-15.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2020 to exceed 110 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-06-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for April 2020 to exceed 110 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-25.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for March 2020 to exceed 110 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for February 2020 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-03-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-27.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for January 2020 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-02-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for December 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for November 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-12-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for September 2019 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for August 2019 to exceed 110 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-20.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for July 2019 to exceed 110 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-23.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for June 2019 to exceed 110 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-07-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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At least four GiveWell staff members with inputs in our cost-effectiveness model change their moral weights for either valuing health vs. income or age-weighting by at least 25%, and they attribute that change to IDinsight's beneficiary preferences survey ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23; known on 2021-02-01.
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Gold hit above $1500/oz at least once in 2019 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by objclone on 2019-08-12.
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SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Gold hit above $1400/oz at least once in 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-23.
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Fed not cut rate at June FOMC meeting ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-06-19; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-20.
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[Politics] Carrie Lam to resign by 2019 EOY ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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[Australian Politics] The Australian Labor Party will win the next Federal Election ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jeefy01 on 2019-06-12; known on 2022-05-30; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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There will be a new iPhone in 2019 that uses a USB-C connector instead of Lightning ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-08-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for July 2019 to exceed 50% ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-09-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for September 2019 to exceed 50% ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-11-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-02-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] releasing Meng Wanzhou ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] extraditing Meng Wanzhou to US ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
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The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-02; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2019 to exceed 110 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-06-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-24.
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[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 59% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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“We will not be able to simulate a Eukaryotic cell (2^46-2^47 atoms) with high-fidelity classical physics at more than 0.1% of real time” ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-07; known on 2101-01-01.
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GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-09-15.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-12.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.
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OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] JS/DT's child ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20.