Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by Mathir25. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.