Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.
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5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.
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ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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OoTS: MitD is the Snarl. ( 15% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-06-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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NGE: Shinji will masturbate to Asuka at some point during Rebuild ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-03; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
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Zerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.
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Zerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.
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Speech trend: I will start hearing people replacing the word “actual(ly)” with “in fact” as a verbal crutch. I will be able to notice at least 3 instances in one week, not all from the same person. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2017-05-15; known on 2018-05-15.
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Conditional on it occurring, a CRISPR clinical trial will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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No attempt of a human head transplant. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Data published by Cisco in 2018 or 2019 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2018 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 151 EB. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-02.
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python-ethereum makes it into ubuntu ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2017-12-31.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 2x fork is the sole surviving chain, or core doubles the block size. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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I was the target of the legal request LQDN got yesterday ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-28; known on 2017-12-31.
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I will get four A's this term ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17.
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AMD's stock hits $20 ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2017-10-27; known on 2018-05-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-05-16.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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I will go two weeks without reading logged-in Twitter this year ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-15; known on 2018-01-01.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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ANTI-ANTIFA PROTEST regina cancelled ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17; known on 2017-11-05.
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larry flynt pays out 10m$ ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-15; known on 2020-12-31.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Catalonia “clarifies” one way or the other by 6am spain time thursday ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2017-10-19; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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The Philippines still dealing with dawla al islamyya ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2019 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2018 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.
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permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.
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As of the end of 2017, J and K will have decided to move to India indefinitely ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-01-01.
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Trump decertifies Iran nuclear deal ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-11-11; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-10-14.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 6 billion views. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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On or before January 1, 2020, there will be at least one YouTube video with over 5 billion views. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-05.
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Donald Trump renegotiates US foreign debt ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump ends the NSA by executive order & creates a program to ensure secure communications for everyone in the world ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Main bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-02-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-12-31.
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Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright ( 8% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.
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Children, on average, learn to be systematic before they learn to be quantitative ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020 ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-11; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-11-20.
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I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.
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I will finish the Deep RL course (http://edu.ipavlov.ai/RL/) #personal ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-10.
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dawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Catalan independence declaration ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27.
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Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.
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I will move before 2019 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will use IRC in 2018 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2023-05-22.
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bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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I am extradited to serve time in a US prison/black site ( 3% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2037-10-05.
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Openly atheist POTUS ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2036-12-31.
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Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.
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Catalan independence declaration ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-05; known on 2017-10-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCDxmZI3I8 is censored ( 71% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04; known on 2017-12-31.
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Quitter comes back online ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04.
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LUST ICO turns out to be a scam ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-11-15.
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Brexit fails ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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brown shot gamby ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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A stereo thief shot Gamby ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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Ecuador kicks Julian Assange out from their London embassy ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-01; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-04-11.
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Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2027-09-29.
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I make the trip today without incident ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2017-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29.
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Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.
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TbG: sebfg qentba ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-28.
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Total marketcap of all cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap(or it's successor) dips below 14B$ USD for longer than a day ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2018-09-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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someone actually shows up to let me in to work today ( 73% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26.
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I am single ( 48% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2018-09-01.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2027-12-31.
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Nuclear exchanging involving all 3 of US, Russia, China either beinig nuked, or nuking some other country within a week ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.