Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will reply to Kawoomba's comment (http://www.reddit.com/r/DebateReligion/comments/t5svm/to_all_the_rational_is_framed_by_the_reasonable/c4k5xk8) ( 98% confidence )
Created by khafra on 2012-05-04; known on 2012-05-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-05-07.
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The margin of victory in the French election will be less than 5 points ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07.
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Knicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-05-06.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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By 12am tonight, I will have written my HIS paper. ( 70% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-05; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05.
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Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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The twenty under twenty program will accept more than twenty fellows this year. ( 10% confidence )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by beo_shaffer on 2012-05-05.
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I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-05.
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A game project which is non-video will raise more than $100,000 on Kickstarter by August 31, 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by richardbliss on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by roxton on 2012-05-04.
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AZEALIA BANKS – 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by fork on 2012-05-02.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.
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http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.
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Seth Roberts will not post a blog post on my (supposedly) null result for taking vitamin D in the morning. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-28; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-05-02.
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I will complete chapter 9 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-02.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 7 hours. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.
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I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 7 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-01.
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I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.
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20 or more people will show for the next Sydney CDG ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-01.
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I predict that in the next two hours, I will finish 90% of the assignment I'm working on ( 90% confidence )
Created by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Selector_3 on 2012-04-30.
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I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-30.
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Mercs 4 will NOT have Peace/War mostly worked out by the end of April ( 70% confidence )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-04-30.
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Coventry City FC will avoid relegation from the Championship League. ( 30% confidence )
Created by leejhancox on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by leejhancox on 2012-04-29.
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I will visit China this summer ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-29.
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Nobody will spend more than 4 hours in the studio space 3 days in a row between now and the first submission. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-13; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-29.
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Of the 25 questions listed as unanswered within my specialties tonight on drugs.com that I answer, 15 of them will within 2 hours have a second answer which restates out of context my own, 5 that are just links to webmd.com or a similar site, 1 will be re ( 89% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.
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gwern will present his next public opinion in a way which people will see only one of three ways: educated lie, pompous and self important, lost on them due to his penchant for the thesaurus. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-04-15; judged wrong by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-28.
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Conditional on being offered a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI, I will accept. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 7 &8: placebo then vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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I will get a chorus recall for Ruddigore ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will get no recall at all for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will get a principal recall for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.
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I will pass exam 220-702 tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.
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Kevin Durant will win the NBA scoring title ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-27.
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Three Stooges the movie will do better than expected (4 wk gross > $23m predicted by HSX) ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26.
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I will complete chapter 8 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 4 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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I will complete chapter 7 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 5 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.
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I will run equal to or greater than 5 k before going to work tonight at an average rate of 7 mph or greater. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23; known on 2012-04-23; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-23.
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Manly Brawl on a Big Tree will not get blammed from the Newgrounds portal ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-21; known on 2012-04-22; judged right by Grognor on 2012-04-22.
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I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.
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Princess Luna appears in 2-part wedding finale ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish one of TDA02 and '&' before Mahoyo releases ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged right by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish Mahoyo in one sitting on the day of release ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.
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Moogy will finish both '&' and TDA02 before Mahoyo releases ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by meisnewbie on 2012-04-21.