Upcoming Predictions
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Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known in 8 days.
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Republicans will take both houses of Congress in 2022. Without federal legislation protecting voting rights. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-25; known in 15 days.
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I will not go to the 20 Books to 50k conference in Vegas again in 2023 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2022-10-21; known on 2023-12-01.
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Javier Milei will win the 2023 presidential elections in Argentina. ( 60% confidence )
Created by joaquin on 2022-06-08; known on 2023-12-01.
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Oculus will not realese a headset more expensive than 500$ in the next 5 years. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-01; known on 2023-12-01.
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I will post a tweet between Dec 1 2023 and Dec 7 2023 (inclusive). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-12; known on 2023-12-07.
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I will reach 175lbs body weight by the Oahu marathon ( 60% confidence )
Created by Radhuahua on 2023-08-16; known on 2023-12-10.
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Freeman Dyson will become a centenarian ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2023-12-16.
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Will I have significantly less back pain in one year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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Created by aut on 2022-12-19; known on 2023-12-19.
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No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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At least one Trump National Security Lottery is put on by the US federal government ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-25; known on 2023-12-31.
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New license or license type (like Creative Commons) will be created to try preventing unauthorized use of one own's written, picture, or video material to train AI (eg. LLM) ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2023-12-31.
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Resolute gets treble damages against Greenpeace thanks to RICO (from 2017 case) ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-08; known on 2023-12-31.
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Have 5 users outside of our existing entrepreneurs on the funder rating database by dec 31, 2023 ( 90% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.
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>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
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Floating house will be complete with electric and furnishings by 12/31/2023 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kyleschutter on 2023-06-05; known on 2023-12-31.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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I won’t complete another in-person semester at UPenn before the end of 2023 ( 60% confidence )
Created by tamera on 2022-07-28; known on 2023-12-31.
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Pepsico rolls out 100 Tesla semi by 2023 https://archive.vn/wip/CR0qy ( 5% confidence )
Created by objclone on 2022-12-16; known on 2023-12-31.
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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.
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The recession that began in 2008 in the US will not be “over” (arbitrarily defined by me as < 5% unemployment for three economic quarters) until 2023. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by deborama on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.
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“That by 2024 “artificial” life emerging somewhere out of the soup of human technology will be given a Latin taxonomic name by biologists and others and declared viable for study.” ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-01-01.
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Tezos to surpass Ada/Cardano in marketcap at end of 2023 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2024-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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At least 40 states will have some form of legal cannabis by 2024 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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'2023 Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.
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Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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'Turkey becomes self-sufficient in energy production' by 2023 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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I finish my PhD (wrote thesis, passed viva) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Deepmind claims to pass the Turing test by the end of 2023 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-14; known on 2024-01-01.
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By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.
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Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.