Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 40% | 71% | 76% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 10 | 21 | 21 | 16 | 1 | 78 |
Displaying all predictions made by from3004. Filter by:
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2016-06-02.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Draco/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by adri on 2015-01-10.
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Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-10-31.
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Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-12-16.
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2015. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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There will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an “apocalypse”) before January ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-05.
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There will be less than 10 wagers on this prediction by the New Year ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.
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I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will do less than 5 pomos today. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will do >10 pomos today. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27.
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I will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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I will be able to obtain HRT by the end of Feb 2015. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-02-28; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-02-28.
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I will get an A in Spectral Theory this semester ( 85% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.
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I will get an A in Algebraic Geometry this semester ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.
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My soylent will have a shorter time between first order and first delivery than D's. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by tylercurtis on 2017-04-09.
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In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-10-24; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-06-15.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2016. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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Usain Bolt sets a new PB in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.
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I will sleep between 280-340 hours in April. ( 65% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01.
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I will complete the Ana Pana course in Esperanto by December. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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I won't post, comment, or tweet on Facebook or Twitter between October 6th and the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-10-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-01.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end October 2014, thus completing second year physics. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-10-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Ebola will be tamed in 3 months ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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I will not do the alhohol/math experiments ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% fewer problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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When I finish my alcohol and mathematical creativity experiments, I will find that I can solve 10+% more problems under the influence of some dosage of alcohol than sober ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros ( 85% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will wake up at 7am April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-17.
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I will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16. ( 55% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-18; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-04-18.
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I will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by from3004 on 2014-05-20.
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I will continue to drink an espresso a day by the end of April. ( 80% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-05-11.
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I will do between 60 and 80 pomodoros in April of 2014 ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-16.
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Half-Life 3 is released in 2014. ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2014-03-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-31.
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Half Life 3 will be announced at the next E3 convention. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2014-06-13.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will make at least 100 public predictions on PredictionBook in 2014 (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.