Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by Lagren. Filter by:
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's vague fear in chapter 10 (“What happens if you fail?”“Something terrible…”) is not rationalisation but represents advance knowledge of what happens, i.e. there's some causal connection to the future (chapter 90+). ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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The Hobbit 2 (Desolation of Smaug) will score at least an 8 on imdb on December 15th. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-05; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by ZGreyArea on 2013-12-15.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will speak (under any nickname) more than 50 lines total in #lesswrong, between now and 2014 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.