Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 80% | 75% | 87% | 97% | 90% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 5 | 16 | 15 | 36 | 21 | 97 |
Displaying all predictions made by faws. Filter by:
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Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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This site will have a feature to hide other people's prediction results until after one has voted. This will be implemented at most within two weeks. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-28; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-12-03.
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There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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Apple will surpass Microsoft in revenue in a max. of 5 years. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crlosg2 on 2009-05-31; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.