Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 59% | 70% | 78% | 87% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 138 | 156 | 130 | 125 | 118 | 8 | 675 |
Displaying all predictions made by KnaveOfAllTrades. Filter by:
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of S80. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-08; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-08.
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By 2017-04-16 Sun: I buy Olympic weightlifting shoes, squat shoes, or other shoes I deem similar (currently intended in plurality for squatting). ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-29.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I consume < 50 kcal in my bedroom ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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Until 2017-04-02 Sun: I do not set any music playing for just myself, other than as linked to or mentioned by other people; or for Deliberately Practising recitation or vocals; or incidental (e.g. YouTube video intros of videos I opened). ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my papers; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-permanent) homes. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my books; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent homes. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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By 2017-04-09 Sun: I go through all my clothes; get rid of the ones of which I want to get rid; and put the rest in (semi-)permanent 'homes'. ( 57% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-10.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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By 2017-04-30 Sun: I will have implemented (in my judgement) changes to supplement timings to try to improve absorption/bioavailability. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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By 2017-03-31 Fri, or by 18:00 on the first day of that job, whichever is the earlier: My credence that I was particularly supposed to or expected to print off one or more copies of one or both of those documents rises, at any point, above 66.0%. ( 43% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-01.
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ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Two+ dates in the next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-24.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of overhead press at [70kg or 0.85x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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One+ date this week ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-13; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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Full test goes ahead as planned tomorrow ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-08; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-08.
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Two+ dates this week ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-03-13; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-13.
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By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five sets of five reps of ATG squats at [143kg or 1.5x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01.
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By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five deadlift reps of [205kg or 2.25x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-02.
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Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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I will not check news.ycombinator.com or mirror more than twice a day from now until 2017-03-16 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-16.
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I will go to the gym 30 more times this semester. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2017-02-14; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by azax1 on 2017-05-25.
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I go on four or more dates between 2017-02-08 and 2017-03-01 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-08; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-02.
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Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged right by penten on 2017-02-27.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-03-07.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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Hammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged right by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Kanye West will be U.S. President-elect before 2025 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Charles Kennedy cause of death will seem to have been confirmed as suicide in 2015 (in my judgement if ambiguous or disputed) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-14.
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If M is any irreducible stationary Markov chain on the set of computable permutations of the natural numbers, then M is transient. ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-01.
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See NB in da house 2 after one round of updating ( 59% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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See NB in da house 2 ( 47% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-25.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a dislocate in his hand ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-24.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a fracture/partial break in his hand ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.
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Conditional on me feeling I have sufficient information to make a basic judgement, he had a complete break in his hand ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-23; known on 2015-05-29.
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He's getting that phone call about the thing think he is ( 83% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-22.
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Channel Tunnel is longer than the circumference of the Large Hadron Collider. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-05-16; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-05-21.
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See CC in there by 14:05 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-05-14.
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There will be a question on Gödel's first incompleteness theorem ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-20; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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My friend Mr Agent will write more than 10 posts in the next 25 days, given that he committed to writing one every day. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-06-01.
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I will make a 100 predictions here by the end of May. i.e., around 4 per day. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-31; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2015-05-23.
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SlateStarCodex blog response to https://srconstantin.wordpress.com/2015/05/04/values-affirmation-is-powerful/ on date in May 2015 according to date I see on the post if/when it exists ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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Of my 140 students, at least 5 students will score above 90% on their Calc I final. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13.
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Tim Shieff clears the heats of Ninja Warrior UK series 1 (i.e. makes semi-finals direct, by highest-scoring loser, etc.), conditional on him competing ( 82% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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Tim Shieff completes his heat course in Ninja Warrior UK series 1 conditional on him competing ( 84% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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I will know that Tim Shieff competed in the first series of Ninja Warrior UK by the time I finish watching it ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-31.
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That female vocalist on Ab Soul – Double Standards is Anna Wise ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-14.
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He replies something like, 'just the end?' or 'whole course tbh' on Twitter by midnight ending 2015-05-06 ( 38% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-07.
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Area of a regular n-gon is ns^2/(4tan(pi/n)) ( 46% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-03.
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Drake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Drake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Drake 5'9" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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I go to P this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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I go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 62% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.
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I'll go to the Southgate student thing ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 76% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2003-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2002-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2001-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2000-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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That verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Duration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player ( 34% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Duration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player ( 17% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Ginny Weasley and the Sealed Intelligence finished by end of May San Francisco time ( 46% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-17.
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I do my gym and 'track stuff' 2015-04-29 Wednesday ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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He says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00 ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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One or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score ( 61% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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I finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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KC by end of May ( 51% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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FC by end of May ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-06-01.
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Roger Ebert directed Beyond the Valley of the Dolls, conditional on it existing ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.
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She says 'Yes' or similar that LGBT won lots of awards ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.
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A's song is Billionaire ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-27.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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Fiona Apple – Paper Bag on Sunfly karaoke website catalogue ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
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That Friend Request is from Toaff ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-26.
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'I Believe I Can Fly' or whatever was originial to Space Jam ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-27.
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They make a recommendation to the university secretary that the case is heard be the vice chancellor ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-21.
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I will receive a written warning at the disciplinary meeting ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-04-22.