Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.
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Charlottesville car admits to being a conservative ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-10.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.
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Fox News cuts ties with Eric Bolling ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2018-08-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-09.
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US Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-10.
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Arianespace Vega Aug. 1 or 2 Optsat 3000 & Venus launches successfully ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-02.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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Rex Tillerson (Rex Wayne Tillerson) will not be the United States Secretary of State before the end of 2018 ( 51% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-09-06.
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Jeff Sessions (Jefferson Beauregard Sessions III) will not be the Attorney General before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea tests another ICBM within one week ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
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Trump will spend 35% of his presidency at Mar a Lago before September 2017 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-09-06.
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July 14 Soyuz Kanopus-V-IK launches successfully ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-14.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is leader of the Conservative Party at the start of the 9th of August. ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-08; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Space X July 5 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e launches successfully ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-06.
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The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.
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New flagship OLED iPhone will ship without Touch ID ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-03; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12.
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[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.
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[Space X July 2 Falcon 9 Intelsat 35e] launches and lands successfully [punish myself for not checking the weather] ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-07-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-07-03.
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches successfully ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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Steve Bannon (Stephen Kevin Bannon) will not be the White House Chief Strategist before the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-16; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-18.
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Politics, UK – Someone in a firm or government, including local government, resigns on or before the 15th of August in connection to errors made in connection to the Grenfell Tower fire. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-30.
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my social media activity will get me fired this summer ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Dennis Rodman will visit North Korea at least once during 2017 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-12; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-13.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Ariane 5 Flight VA237 will successfully launch within one week ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-02.
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SpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-31; known on 2020-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 3) Awaken Cthulhu so He may take his rightful place as ruler of this puny planet ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-06-01; judged unknown by two2thehead on 2017-05-25.
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[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 2) Snap my fingers ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-06-01; judged unknown by two2thehead on 2017-05-25.
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[[Test to be withdrawn] I will] 1) Clap my hands ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-06-01; judged unknown by two2thehead on 2017-05-25.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Mississippi State Rep Karl Oliver apologizes in some way for his lynching comment ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-22; known on 2017-11-22; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-23.
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Jared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-20; known on 2027-05-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-26.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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The nation source from which Trump leaked information about ISIS to Russia was either Israel or Jordan ( 85% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-16; known on 2067-05-16; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-16.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Politics, US – Representative of the FBI states the FBI investigation into connections between the Trump Campaign and the Russian Government has been closed by the 17th of June 2017. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-18.
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Maduro will not be president of Venezuela within one year ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-05-10.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-20.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.
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Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-02; known on 2027-05-02.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully delivers NROL-76 to orbit, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully lands the first stage of the NROL-76 launch, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Trump tweets about the stolen radioactive material in mexico ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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President of France 2017 elections: Benoît Hamon (Parti Socialiste)(Incumbent Party) won't make it past the first round ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Jason Chaffetz resigns from congress ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-18.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May attends a TV debate with one or more leaders of other parties before the next UK General Election. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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Fox News cuts ties with Bill O'Reilly ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-19.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 14 days [2017-04-09] ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-23.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 21 days [2017-04-09] ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-04-30.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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The 2017 Apr 07 attack on Stockholm, Sweden was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-05-07; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Colbert stops being a late show host by August 2017 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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Devin Nunes will step down as Intelligence committee chairman OR recuse himself with regards to the Trump Russia investigation before the end of 2017 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-28; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Tech – The Samsung S8, as released, has no home button. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-03-30; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-29.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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2017 Mar 20 Both of my predictions will be marked as correct ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped any candidate of the 2016 US Presidential Election ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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FBI Director James Comey on Monday will not claim that then President Obama wiretapped then candidate Trump ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-20; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-20.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Records, forensic evidence, or sourced testimony from officials who were within the intelligence community during the previous US administration is released before the end of March 2017 supporting Trump's claim of being wiretapped. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-02.
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I will kill myself before graduation ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on July 15, 2017 ( 94% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-16.