Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 20% | 49% | 74% | 71% | 87% | 90% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 35 | 42 | 21 | 45 | 10 | 158 |
Displaying all predictions made by muflax. Filter by:
-
50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
-
ASOIAF: Wba Fabj jvyy or jnetrq ol Oybbqenira ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-27; known on 2023-01-02.
-
ASOIAF: Wba Fabj vf jnetrq ol Oybbqenira be Oena (be obgu) ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2016-04-28; known on 2023-01-02.
-
HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
-
Jon Snow will be alive in some shape or form during Season 6 of Game of Thrones (excluding flashbacks and dream sequences) ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02.
-
Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 50%. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
-
Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
-
There will be a new (upvoted) argument against wireheading on LW until 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
-
Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
-
The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
-
Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
-
Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
[Breaking Bad Season 5] Hank will see Walt in some context associated with the pest control company, causing him to realize that he's hiding something… again. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-07-30; known on 2014-01-30; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-01.
-
Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
-
kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
If XiXiDu has taken a typical IQ test in the last 10 years or takes one this year, he will score at least 115. ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-08.
-
Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
-
Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
-
“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
-
SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
-
LessWrong: By 2013, date last edited shows up next to comments that have been edited. (Would foil this evil plan, for instance. http://bit.ly/w0lkyQ ) ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
-
The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
-
By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
Half-Life 3 released in 2012. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
Q.I. makes it up to “Z”. ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.
-
Q.I. abandons its “one letter a season” concept. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2028-12-31.
-
Reddit: “teaching daughter to ride bike” pic is reposted as “autistic daughter”. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-30; known on 2012-04-30; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-31.
-
Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
-
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
-
If Eliezer Yudkowsky decides to follow Kevin's diet for at least three months in the next two years, his end weight after three months will be at least ten pounds (~4.5 kg) lighter than his starting weight. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by wedrifid on 2014-01-16.
-
An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
-
SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
-
Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Reddit: reminder that “Dawn of The Final Day” frontpage was predicted a year ago on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
-
Reddit: “Dawn of The Final Day” meme on frontpage on 2012/12/20. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-21.
-
Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Dexter season 7: Quinn and Louis will work together. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.
-
Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Dexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-11-07.
-
Dexter season 7: a regular dies. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
-
Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 40% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
-
Dexter season 6: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 15% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
-
Dexter season 6: a regular dies. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
-
Dexter season 6: Louis kills Travis. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-21; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
-
Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as non-villain. ( 25% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-15.
-
Dexter: Louis returns in season 7 as villain. ( 35% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-10-15.
-
lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
-
Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update). ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-06-01.
-
Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.
-
“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
-
predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
-
Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
-
I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
-
German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
-
I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
-
I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.
-
Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
-
cousin_it will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
Wei Dai will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
-
wedrifid will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
Phil Goetz will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-03-25.
-
Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
-
Yvain will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-10-21.
-
Nassim Nicholas Taleb will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.
-
Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
-
If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
-
I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.
-
“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
-
An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by muflax on 2013-02-24.
-
If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
-
lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
-
Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
I will still use Beeminder in a month. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-03.
-
I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.
-
My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.
-
LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
-
LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
-
Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man's child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.
-
Owen will post an article about Direct Instruction on LW this year. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
I will publish another article on my site this year. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2014-01-01.
-
LW: Rationality Boot Camp will be declared a success and will have solid long-term data to back it up. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.