Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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DNB/nicotine day 19: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-26; known on 2012-09-26; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-26.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: 49 million iPhone sales for December, 2012 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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DNB/nicotine day 18: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2022-09-24; judged right by gwern on 2022-09-24.
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No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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2014: Malaria vaccine enters manufacturing. This vaccine is available in 2015. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Paul Farrell, Marketwatch: Wall Street will lose 20% by 2016 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 17: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-09-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-24.
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Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
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Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2020. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2030. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Butterfly Labs ASIC will achieve 350 Mhash/Joule” —Bets of Bitcoin ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Democrats will retain control of the senate after 2012 election ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2012-12-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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DNB/nicotine day 16: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-20; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-20.
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Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
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DNB/nicotine day 15: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-19.
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The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
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DNB/nicotine day 14: active? ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-17; known on 2012-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-17.
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Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.
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DNB/nicotine day 13: active? ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-16.
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There will be <=3 MLP-related posts on LessWrong in January 2013. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-02-01.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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DNB/nicotine day 12: active? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-09-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-14.
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I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-19.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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DNB/nicotine day 11: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-13.
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DNB/nicotine day 10: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-12.
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DNB/nicotine day 9: active? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-11.
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My extortionist will reply and attempt a different extortion. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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My extortionist will reply at all. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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The Open Thread post at Less Wrong will be posted four times a month rather than its current twice a month within a year. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 37 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-09-08; judged right by ygert on 2013-08-30.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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NYTimes: David Brooks will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Paul Krugman will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto’s Evangelion manga: After stage (chapter) 87, there will be 3 more stages, for a final manga volume consisting of 6 stages ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-20.
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I will not smoke a (tobacco containing) cigarette for the next 25 years. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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DNB/nicotine day 8: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-07.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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The LW user account “Grognor” will make a comment in a thread other than rationality quotes some time in the next ten years. ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-08-27; known on 2022-08-28; judged wrong by muflax on 2022-08-28.
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DNB/nicotine day 7: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2012-09-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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EoE will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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EoE will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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EoE will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2015 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2014 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE TV will be released on Bluray in 2013 ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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'Silicon Valley jobs will remain flat' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.
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User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 6: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 5: active? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-01; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-01.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-09-02.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-02.
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Silk Road will directly support LiteCoin and at least one seller will accept them, within 2 years. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-02.
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5 or less students will be expelled as a result of the Harvard cheating scandal (125 students investigated) ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23.
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DNB/nicotine day 4: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-31.
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Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.
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Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full ( 35% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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Apple won't sue Google over Android before end of 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Farhad Manjoo: Kindle to be free with Amazon Prime by end of 2013 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-21.
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DNB/nicotine day 3: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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pirateat40 will win his bet with vandroiy that BTCST will not default, as judged by nanotube ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-05.
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Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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Hillary will be the Democratic nominee for president in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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'Makerbot will sell more than 10,000 3D printers in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.
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'China will have more tech IPOs than the U.S.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.
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Carriers 'will institute charges based on usage' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01.
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'Newspapers in Australia will be found to be boosting subscription numbers by a significant amount to swindle advertisers, again. (40%)' —luminosity ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01.
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'Both Stratasys and Objet will release $5000 desktop 3D printers at Euromold 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01.
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'Apple’s Mac App Store does $1B in gross sales in first year' —Brian Breslin ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-08.
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The NDE out of body consciousness experiment by Dr Parnia will be entirely negative ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-11-14.
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Robert Mugabe of ZANU-PFwill lose to Morgan Tsvangirai of MDC-T in the next election(2012) in Zimbabwe ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by general on 2011-11-17; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-05.
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GJP: #1046 Will Australia formally transfer Uranium to India by 1 June 2012? ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-14; known on 2012-06-01.
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“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.
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DNB/nicotine day 2: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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China will be the biggest smartphone app market by beginning of 2013 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Twitter will win privacy fight over Occupy Wall Street tweets (at least as to email address) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Geoff Greer will have a job within 6 months. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2013-02-25; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-25.
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DNB/nicotine: 1: active? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-25; known on 2012-08-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-25.