Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 71% | 43% | 50% | 75% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 14 | 10 | 8 | 14 | 2 | 55 |
Displaying all predictions made by ciil. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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MH370 (or the wreckage) will be found by 1 April. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-02.
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Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.
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Canada will arrive first in the 2014 Olympics. (ie. number of gold medals) ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-24.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Market cap in USD of top ten altcoins as a percentage of bitcoin market cap in USD to grow by at least 10% in a year. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-22.
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I will get my passport this week ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-22; known on 2013-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.
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Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014 – http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-13; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.