Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 50% | 63% | 85% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 30 | 48 | 56 | 33 | 82 | 8 | 257 |
Displaying all predictions made by btrettel. Filter by:
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.
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At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.
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github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.
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The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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Pandora will call me with a “special offer” by 2016-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-07-09.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-19; known on 2032-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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I will weigh more than 190 lbs on 2020-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-07-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-02.
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50% of all high school classes in the US to be taught online by 2019 (Clayton Christensen) ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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I will be a teetotaler for the entire period between now and 2025-01-01 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-12; known on 2025-01-02.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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The Stack Exchange Network will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-07-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Quora will independently survive to 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-31.
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Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 65% accuracy for the 100% category ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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When/if Raahul_Kumar reaches 30 predictions for which the answer becomes known and he assigned >95% confidence, he will have at best 50% accuracy for the 100% category ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21.
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The June 2015 TOP500 supercomputer rankings will include 4 or more computers in the top 10 with GPUs available for processing ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-08-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-07-16.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Among all US high-tech (IT, all computer {soft, hard}ware development) jobs, of the total hours worked in 2035, >=75% will be worked from home. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2036-01-01.
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Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.
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NIST's overall budget will increase from FY 2015 to 2016 ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-21; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29.
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US CO2 emissions per capita increase from 2013 to 2014 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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figshare will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 60% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.
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Domestic per capita water use in California will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.
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Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.
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California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.
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Domestic per capita water use in the US will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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US bicycle mode share will increase in the 2020 Census over 2010 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-11; known on 2022-01-01.
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Distracted driving fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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Bicyclist fatalities in the US increase from 2012 to 2013 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 1,000,000 acres in 2016. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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There will be at least one US wildfire larger than 100,000 acres in 2016. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will not be a thunderstorm when I go running. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-23; known on 2015-04-24; judged right by btrettel on 2015-04-24.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By January 1, 2045, each of the cities of Flagstaff, Las Vegas, Albuquerque, Clovis, Prescott, Henderson, Hobbs, and Abilene will have a population of at most 10% its population compared to the population in 2015. ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-06; known on 2045-01-03.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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By March 10, 2035, "the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2035-03-10.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.