Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 45% | 60% | 67% | 83% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 20 | 35 | 36 | 24 | 37 | 8 | 160 |
Displaying all predictions made by aarongertler. Filter by:
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At least one card from Temur Adventures will be banned as of next Friday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2020-09-25; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2020-10-05.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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Bright Funds will no longer exist as a coherent entity when I look it up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-11-28; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-11-28.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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The July 7th post on Aaron's Polls will get 40 responses or more. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-07-07; known on 2018-07-10; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-07-10.
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My June 30th post on my personal Facebook polling group will get more than 30 responses. https://www.facebook.com/groups/293306464388556/ ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-07-07.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Personal, Goals – I successfully complete Andrew Ng's Machine Learning course on Coursera by the end of the 27th of August 2018. ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-03; known on 2018-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-07-09.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Linchuang Zhang will donate more than $10,000 to charity in the period between June 30, 2015, and June 30, 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-07-01.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2022-05-16.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Either the average cost of a public university education in America will double, the median income of a 4-year-degree holder will fall to 125% of a high school diploma holder, or the expected value of a public university education will turn negative. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-02-17; known on 2025-06-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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In a survey of at least 30 people around 18-22, greater than 50% will find X more attractive than Y ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-30; known on 2015-07-01.
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Life will win the final match of WCS Global 2015. (Note: Outcome has happened, but I haven't seen it yet.) ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-11-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-11-13.
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The two of us will send an email to that philosophy professor, like we said we would last Spring. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-02-01.
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Nicholas Christakis to cease to be Master of Silliman College by January 1, 2016 ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-01-06.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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That Facebook post will concern the Kickstarter. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-11-04; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-11-04.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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My opponent has the third Dominator Drone they need to win. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-10-24; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-24.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.
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No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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Zendikar fetchlands reprinted in Commander 2015 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by TheSkeward on 2015-08-07; known on 2015-11-13; judged right by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09.
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Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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The Revenant I just passed will table in my Magic Origins draft. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-08-01.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will have 100 blog subscribers eight months from now. (aarongertler.net/subscribe) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-03-06; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2016-03-06.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.
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Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
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By, or around the time the next expansion for Hearthstone is released, Blizzard will fulfill at least one of the following four community's wishes (clarification in comments). ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-05-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by timujin on 2015-08-05.
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Before January 1, 2020 the Dow will stay within 12,500 and 29,000 ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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SIG will not offer me a position. ( 70% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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Instacart will not ask me to interview for a position. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-12-30; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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McSweeney's will NOT select my list, “Four Vegetables You Hated As A Kid But Should Give A Second Chance, Even If They Did Murder Your Family”, as a piece to publish on their website. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-04; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.
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I will get the position with Venture For America. ( 25% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-02.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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At least 20 people, total, will come to the next 2 YEA meetings. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-12; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-09-14.
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Yale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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The Twitter user I reported for abuse (@FilmCriticOne) will still have an active Twitter account one month from today. ( 84% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-05.
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My team in the Good Judgment Project (PredictionBook on steroids) will finish in the top 5 of the 29 total teams. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-05-01.
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Australia will have legalized same-sex marriage by 2016 in some/all states. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.
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Chris will officially incorporate a company (with or without Nami) by September 1st, 2015. ( 55% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-18; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-27.
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I'll go on the Hamptons trip with Star and Peter, serving as a designated driver. ( 20% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-07-04; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-07-04.
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I will finish Chapter 3 of Hartl's Rails Tutorial tomorrow before midnight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-21; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-06-23.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2019-06-14.
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At least one company in the 2014 YEI fellowship will raise $1 million within the next year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2015-06-12; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-12.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 65% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” (part 3) ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 50% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The next song in alphabetical order after “Ghost”, by Evol Intent, will not have the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” in the title. ( 75% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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Zach and Katie's relationship ends within four years. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-05-18; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-11-17.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.
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I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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There will be at least one Diet Coke in the fridge when I open it. ( 30% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-11; known on 2014-05-11; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-11.
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By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.
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Brayden receives a job offer from a company in the Bay Area that will sponsor a visa, either during or following his trip that ends June 3rd 2014 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by dusk on 2014-06-30.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.