Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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By January 1, 2011 one or more of the following will happen (1) Israel will launch a military attack against Iran, (2) The U.S. will launch a military attack against Iran or (3) a significant number of countries will ban the sale of gasoline to Iran. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JamesMiller on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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r.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Frank on 2011-01-02.
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Hyperinflation by 2011 —Gonzalo Lira ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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Another beloved celebrity will die before the year is over ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by maskath@hotmail.com on 2010-06-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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The current UK coalition government will last until the end of 2010 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by benj on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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I will sign up for cryonics by December 31st 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Larks on 2010-07-22; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by Larks on 2011-01-01.
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Australia will change drinking age to 21 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kassey on 2010-02-10; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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I will still identify as Theist in a year ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by MrHen on 2010-02-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by MrHen on 2011-01-01.
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I will re-read the Haruhi novels & finish my Haruhi essay by 2011. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Carr-Benkler wager: by 2011 most big content sites (Digg, Flickr, YouTube etc.) will be professional than amateur driven. ( 1% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Subversion will not be released in 2010. ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Roman Polanski will be extradited to the United States before the end of next year. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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My Sony VAIO laptop will still be functional enough to watch/listen to streamed YouTube videos at the end of 2010, with no part upgrades costing > $15. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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All my immediate family members will be either alive or have had their brains successfully cryopreserved at the beginning of 2011. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by olimay on 2009-11-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by olimay on 2011-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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Bank of England Base rate will be 1% or less on 31 December 2010 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by koenfucius on 2010-07-21; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by koenfucius on 2010-12-31.
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“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Sep 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Aug 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Global Temperature Anomaly for Jul 2010 to be greater than 0.50 Degrees C” —Intrade ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“In 2010 more diesel passenger vehicles will be sold in the US than hybrids.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Construction of 'Ground Zero mosque' to commence before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“There will be a quantum computer with over 100 qubits of processing capability sold either as a hardware system or whose use is made available as a commercial service by Dec 31, 2010” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less.” —Farhad Manjoo ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The spot price of silver will be $20/ounce or higher on December 31, 2010. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“By 2010, more than 50 percent of books sold worldwide will be printed on demand at the point of sale in the form of library-quality paperbacks.” ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The spot price of gold will be $1200/ounce or above on December 31, 2010. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2009-12-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The share price of gold is going to increase by 5% by the end of 2010. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Marz on 2010-03-24; known on 2010-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.” ( 5% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“GM will close the Saturn brand” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Esquire magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Architectural Digest Magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Gap will close Old Navy” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain” —Douglas McIntyre ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.