Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
-
Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-23.
-
Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-03.
-
/r/gwern will have been banned by Reddit ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Apple will discontinue the 13" Macbook Pro model that lacks the touchbar. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-18; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by quanticle on 2019-12-29.
-
The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-17; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17.
-
The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
-
[Commodities] Venezuela will produce 0 crude oil in at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 4 MMbpd ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 3 MMbpd ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 2 MMbpd ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Commodities: In at least one month between May 2019 and May 2020, Iraq crude oil production to fall below] 1 MMbpd ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-06-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
-
[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Other ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Jay Inslee ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Julián Castro ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Cory Booker ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Kamala Harris ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Bernie Sanders ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
-
[Politics] Iran and US to establish formal diplomatic relations by May 2020 EOM ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 27% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
A US Navy vessel to sink or be destroyed in the Persian/Arab Gulf by May 2020 EOM ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
-
[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
-
[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
-
The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-08-12.
-
[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.
-
[Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
-
[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
-
[Commodities] As of April 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-04-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-04-09.
-
[Commodities] As of March 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of February 2020 ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-13.
-
[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
-
[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
-
[Commodities] As of September 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of August 2019 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-11.
-
[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-07.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang San-cheng (張善政) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] James Soong (宋楚瑜) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Wang Jyn-pyng (王金平) ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Terry Gou (郭台銘) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Eric Chu (朱立倫) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chou Hsi-wei (周錫瑋) ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Chang Ya-chung (張亞中) ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] William Lai (賴淸德) ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] Tsai Ing-wen (蔡英文) ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the KMT ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Taiwan: The winner of the 2020 presidential election to be] a member of the DPP ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-01-12; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-12.
-
[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
-
Trump will be reelected. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by subra on 2019-05-09; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
-
Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.
-
[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen to kill Jon Snow ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.
-
[Game of Thrones] Jon Snow to kill Daenerys Targaryen ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.
-
Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
-
[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
-
[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
-
Terry Davis wrote the bitcoin white paper between two “soda runs”. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-30; known on 2025-04-28.
-
Gwern Branwen will overdose on mead and dark choclate. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
-
Gwern Branwen is going to have a menage a trois with Issa Rice and Vipul Naik and he is going to write an article about his experience including ggplot2 graphs. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.
-
E. Yudkowsky will undergo “endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty”. Despite the surgery he will gain weight. Gwern will advise him to try a kettlebell workout. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
-
Scott Alexander will be arrested by the FBI, because of his spiral (NAMBLA) medallion. However, gwern will smuggle in equipment to his prison cell and he will escape. In the end they will marry. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
-
Gwern is Jim Babcock. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
-
E. Yudkowsky will coauthor a book with gwern. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-29; known on 2025-04-28.
-
Gwern is still living with his relatives. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-28; known on 2025-04-29.
-
The identity of gwern branwen will be revealed to the public by 2025. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-29.
-
gwern branwen will change his personal pronouns from he/him to they/them. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-04-27; known on 2025-04-28.
-
The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
-
The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-17.
-
[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 5 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-16.
-
[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
-
[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
-
[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
-
[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the top contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
-
[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] EU to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
-
[Libya: As of 2020-04-25] US government to recognize the Government of National Accord ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2020-04-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-04-26.
-
Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-24.
-
The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
-
The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
-
There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.
-
SLS core to be finished by end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
[US politics] Someone other than Donald Trump to win at least one state in the 2020 Republican presidential primary ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-16; known on 2020-08-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
-
A redacted form of the Mueller report is released by Friday ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-15; known on 2019-04-20; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
-
Joe Rogan to announce departure from UFC commentary by 2019 EOY ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
-
Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
-
Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2025-01-20.
-
A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.
-
[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
-
At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
-
[Game of Thrones] Viserion the ice dragon to revert to Daenerys Targaryen's control at least once by the end of the TV series ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
-
[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen's two remaining dragons Drogon and Rhaegal to both be alive and under DT's control at the end of the TV series ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
-
[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Melisandre ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
-
[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Petyr Baelish/Littlefinger ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
-
[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Yara Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
-
[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Qyburn ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.