Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Displaying all predictions made by jessriedel. Filter by:
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By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.
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The 750 GeV diphoton excess reported by the LHC in December 2015 will be definitively attributed to new fundamental physics by the end of 2017 by either the CMS or ATLAS collaborations according to the 5-sigma “observation” criteria. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jessriedel on 2016-01-06; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by jessriedel on 2018-01-02.
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2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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World share in science papers for the United States fell from 33% in 2003 to 27.8% in 2012.By 2021 it will be under 22.6%. — Web of Science, Thomson Reuters ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-09; known on 2021-12-10.
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Juno spacecraft sends images from Jupiter ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-07-04; judged right by jessriedel on 2016-07-05.
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Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.
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The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.