Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 64% | 78% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 9 | 11 | 9 | 20 | 5 | 56 |
Displaying all predictions made by sdr. Filter by:
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Szechuan sauce theory: Rick & Morty S3 to feature at least 3 distinct (non-S1&S2) merch (paid by other corps) across the season ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2017-04-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The US dollar to crash, and loose 50%, or more of it's value by 2026 ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2016-05-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
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Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to be below 30K at least once within 6 months of launch. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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Conditional on LW2.0 being implemented, the changes will cause LW's alexa rank to drop above 100K within 6 months of launch. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-10-02.
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Lesswrong.com will have major ( >3 pages' design structure) changes implemented, and live by the end of 2016 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdr on 2016-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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At least one image generated by Deeplearning neaural networks will have seizure-causing effects in >0.1% of human population by 2016 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Houshalter on 2016-01-11.
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A specific size-based clothing recommendation startup to make in revenue $1M, or exit for >$2M before 3rd year ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-14; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2017-03-17.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Adobe to survive to 2025 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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voat.co to become a top 300 site by the end of 2015 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Scotland to secede from the UK in 2017. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Predictionbook's overall confidence will remain within 5% of accuracy in buckets 50-90 by 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-07-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Jan 1st of 2015 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2015-01-04.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-04.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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PG will not reply to Eliezer's question on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-17; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-17.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.