Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 38% | 57% | 33% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by roshni. Filter by:
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Amazon stock price will reach $700 at some point in 2016. ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2016-05-11.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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I'll be able to stick to my 2015 New Year resolution of 'no potato chips or french fries' till Dec 31, 2015. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2014-12-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
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Roshith will be back in college in 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshith on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-12-24; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.
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BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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Uniform civil code bill passed in India before 2019 general elections. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2019-01-01.
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Temple construction begins in Ayodhya on the site of Babri masjid at least by 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2014-05-20; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15.
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Narendra Modi will become PM of India in the 2014 elections. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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BJP will win elections in India ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgray on 2014-04-09; known on 2014-05-15; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be make Dumbledore turn himself in to Lucius in exchange for Hermione's freedom ( 31% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: ch81: Harry's solution will be invoking Lucius's debt to whomever killed his supposed Imperiuser ( 35% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-28; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-28.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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Hamza Kashgari will live to see 2013. ( 40% confidence )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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I'll be able to stick to my 2012 New Year resolution of 'no mammal meat for a year' till Dec 31, 2012. ( 20% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by roshni on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by roshni on 2012-12-31.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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I will get the job I'm interviewing for on Tuesday ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by roshni on 2011-11-22.
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I will still be using prediction book by January 2012 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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I will be up-to-date on ML class by next weekend ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-18; known on 2011-11-27; judged wrong by roshni on 2011-11-27.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.