Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.
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Bipartisan gun control legislation passed by the US Senate ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-24.
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Russia seizes all of Luhansk ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-12; known on 2022-06-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-01.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-27.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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A week goes by without any more attempted mass shootings/attacks in the US ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-20.
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Clouduknguyen_95 realizes he can make predictions in private mode (“visible to creator”), and decides to stop leaking people's medical information ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-19.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-11-21.
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large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Madison Cawthorn reelected ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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Josh Hawley runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Tom Cotton runs in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Elon Musk runs for President by 2033 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-09; known on 2033-01-01.
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Airplane mask mandate in the US to be legally in force for at least one day between now and May 15th. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-16.
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Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-25; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Tapetum-Lucidum does not make any more metapredictions, after this one, until 2023 ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-19.
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kriscooper000 returns by 2023 and modifies their prediction about the moon exploding ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Elon Musk completes acquisition of Twitter ( 59% confidence; 36 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-14; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-30.
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Media outlet Proekt shut down in Russia by 2023 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03; known on 2023-01-01.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir Le Pen devançant Macron au premier tour? ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged wrong by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir un second tour Macron Le Pen? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged right by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Ooga and Ashley break up ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
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Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 21 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-22; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-21.
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Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 28 2022 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-29; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-29.
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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02.
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China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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The Biden administration officially claims that China has provided military assistance to Russia for its invasion in Ukraine ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-14; known on 2025-01-20.
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My spring 2022 final grades will not include any letter grade below an A-. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-01.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Russia won't be disconnected from global internet as of Mar 11, 2022 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by denisp on 2022-03-10; known on 2022-03-12; judged right by denisp on 2022-03-12.
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Russian sovereign debt default by March 17, 2022 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-17.
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US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-11.
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World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.
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[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-05-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.
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JS goes to work for the company in London ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06; known on 2024-01-01.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-06.
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Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.
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I will have sex with Greta ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-30; known on 2022-03-31; judged wrong by ActuallyGreta on 2022-04-01.
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Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
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Apple stock prices will go over 170 after annual report is released ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by he666 on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-01-28; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.
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Chesa Boudin will be recalled ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2022-06-08; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-06-12.
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I will wake up early enough to attend the first 15 min of RL meeting ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leksuu on 2021-09-28; known on 2021-09-29.
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US will default on debt by the end of October 2021 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-09-29; known on 2021-11-01; judged unknown by lnfinity on 2021-10-16.
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At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.
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Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.