Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 56% | 54% | 100% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 9 | 13 | 5 | 21 | 2 | 59 |
Displaying all predictions made by unexpectedEOF. Filter by:
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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Politics, US – Over 38% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Politics, US – Over 28% of ballots cast in the 2020 presidential election will be mail-in or absentee, including mail-in or absentee ballots dropped off in person. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-13; known on 2020-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-03.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
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Joe Biden will win the election in 2020 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shutterspeed on 2020-07-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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George Floyd will be Time Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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World population passes 8 billion mark by mid 2023. (UN estimate). ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ekr on 2017-11-22; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-07.
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Mo-Pac express lanes will not be open and accepting traffic before September 20th, 2016 ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2016-09-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-09-26.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Austin's Kerbey Lane Cafe will begin moving from a magstripe card-based loyalty program to a mobile app loyalty program by 2021. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2021-01-01.
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Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2041-01-01.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-11-18.
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Airtable will change their pricing or be acquired before 2017. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2017-07-05.
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Cannabis will be removed from Schedule I of the Controlled Substances Act before 2023 ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2018-06-01.
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No portion of Mo-Pac express lanes will be completed and accepting traffic before June 1st, 2016. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-06-01.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next twenty years. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2037-01-01.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
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Star Wars: The Force Awakens will gross above 2.8 Billion USD globally ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2035. Details below. ( 80% confidence )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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eBay, Inc. will spin off, sell, or shut down another one of its business units before 2023. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-11.
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NASA's Mars discovery announcement will involve indications of liquid water. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-28.
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The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The top scorer of my work fantasy football league will beat the top scorer of my colleague's league (in terms of final points). ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-01-10.
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Mo-Pac express lanes will not be completed and accepting traffic before January 20th, 2016. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-01-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-01-20.
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The Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29.
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My Facebook Page [https://www.facebook.com/ltasbblog] will have 300+ Likes by the end of September. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dvdddg on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.
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The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.
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The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.
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More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2026-01-01.
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Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-17.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.