Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 29% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
Displaying all predictions made by atomicspacemann. Filter by:
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy launch, defined as placing payload in or above LEO, within 2017. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump will break from recent tradition and have either more than one comedic act the White House Correspondents' Dinner, or no comedian at all. ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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The US will run a deficit for 2017 of over 300 billion, with a likely >300 billion deficit in following years. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-07.
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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China probe lands on far side of the moon, returns samples ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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National Guard called in to shut down #WomensMarch, at least 1 dead ( 19% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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EMDrive is launched into space and testing is successfully begun in 2017 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Resolution 2: I will write the majority of a VisionofEarth.org article + Update my bio ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.