Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 53% | 53% | 88% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 38 | 43 | 34 | 16 | 28 | 7 | 166 |
Displaying all predictions made by waveman. Filter by:
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I will have achieved a heart rate of 165 for 15 minutes straight which is my aerobic fitness goal. ( 80% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-05.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.