Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 60% | 63% | 81% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 42 | 43 | 37 | 99 | 12 | 247 |
Displaying all predictions made by Nic_Smith. Filter by:
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Coin lands heads. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12; known on 2013-01-12; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Encoding done before midnight ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 11:30 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 10:30 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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6 or more people at party tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-01-04; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-06.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Google trends will show a decline in the term “asshat” within the last two years. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29; known on 2012-12-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-12-29.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd and Misha rejoins your party. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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I will be hired as a Civilian Investigation Specialist before 2013. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-26.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, Misha rejoins your party. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.
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After going to the hexagonal plane, but before a plot-required exit to the world map in Ar Tonelico, you fight Bourd. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19; known on 2012-01-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-19.
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Shirley frozen or similarly harmed by magic at end of Fate/Zero Ep 18. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26; known on 2012-08-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-08-26.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The “top contributor” for Humble Bundle V will equal or exceed $10000. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-03; known on 2012-06-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-06-11.
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Rain at apt. tonight or tomorrow morning. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-21; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-21.
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Temperature outside above 40 ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.
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Temperature outside below 30 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.
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Temperature outside between 30 and 40 F inclusive ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-20.
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I will attend the next Chicago LW meetup. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-03-16; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-26.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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Train on Monday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.
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Train on Sunday arrives on time (within 5 minutes) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-02-07.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Jared Loughner will be convicted (or plead guilty) to at least one charge related to the 2011 Tuscon shooting. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-12; known on 2026-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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My scheduler, Sparking Now, completed to a usable level within a year. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2012-04-12.
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Bryan Caplan, or a co-blogger, will write a post on EconLog defending his use of the term “real world” to refer to non-academia in the next two weeks. ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-14; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-15.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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By November 2015, Howard Dean will form an exploratory committee to float his name for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-01.
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Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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China will forgive US debt in exchange for the ending of US-Taiwan defense treaties by or during 2015 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“The Chicago Spire to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The next Humble Bundle accepts Bitcoin for payment. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-12-13.
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Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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300: Battle of Artemisia is not produced and released in the next decade. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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The US Mint will mint one or more high-value coins ($100K+/coin) before 2011-09-15 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-30; known on 2011-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-15.
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I will win the free video tutorial contest I entered today. ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-08-06; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-08-08.
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Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.
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“The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier's book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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“…in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-05-22; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-22.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. ( 2% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-04-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.