Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Tech – Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jamesrom on 2018-06-13.
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Wenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-31; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Janssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Seiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Benkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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RVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina ( 53% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
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Whittaker beats Romero at UFC 225 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, South America – Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, Spain – Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Krantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-09.
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[I will have finished the deep learning course by] June 3 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-06-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-08.
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Andre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-08.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (whether or not successful) before June 15, 2018 ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-06-16; judged right by enolan on 2018-06-08.
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Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-07.
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French rail strike will end before 15th May in favour of the government. ( 60% confidence )
Created by phistr on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-05-15; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-07.
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At least 814 docking stations of public bike sharing service Velib to be installed in Paris by June 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-06-06.
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Popov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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Ngeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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ITA will be up MoM at end of May. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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KOSPI will be down EOM. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-25; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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I will make it to hiking if it is on Saturday June 2nd ( 30% confidence )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2018-06-02.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Politics, Ireland – At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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Created by crabman on 2017-10-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-06-01.
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In the wake of the listeria outbreaks, at least one Blue Bell Creameries employee will face criminal charges by 2018 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2018-06-01.
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Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
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I have exercised 100 days this year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-05-31.
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I will be asked to sign work contract before my trip to Greece and without pushing HR representatives. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-05-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-05-30.
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I read 12+ books this year ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.