Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 65% | 81% | 82% | 83% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 14 | 17 | 16 | 17 | 47 | 9 | 120 |
Displaying all predictions made by David. Filter by:
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The Navier-Stokes Millennium prize will be awarded before 2020-01-01 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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9fd811e61b18aa0228a6da4610bbd4de96f69f0e1dd77eeb68d182862f925780 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-07; known on 2015-10-25.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Increased potassium will correlate with decreased muscular soreness. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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I will not be living in Australia on December 31st, 2015 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mad on 2014-10-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2016-04-14.
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Lowest grade of the Math 101 test will be 13/50 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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The average for the math 101 test on voting theory will be at least 40/50. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.
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I will master peg method. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-17.
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Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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I will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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Home repairs will run more than 10% over budget ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.
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Home repairs will run more than 20% over budget ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2016-03-09.
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Zendikar fetchlands reprinted in Commander 2015 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by TheSkeward on 2015-08-07; known on 2015-11-13; judged right by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09.
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Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 142 last year. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2015-10-27; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28.
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Greece will return to the Drachma and abandon the Euro currency ( 40% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-07-05; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-05.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next US President, and win popular vote by at least 4.5% ( 27% confidence; 17 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-05; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Democrats to control US Senate after 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-03; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Ukraine will default on its debt ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-06.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Saudi Arabia and Iran will be at war before the end of 2020. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi will die before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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hilary clinton will not be elected ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by marcDouglas on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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By the end of 2015, at least one poll of Bernie Sanders v. a GOP candidate in head-to-head will be done that is respected enough that it will be included by RCP on their Presidential polling list. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-29.
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Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Syria’s civil war will not end before 2016. ( 93% confidence; 51 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.
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Assad will remain President of Syria for the remainder of 2015. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Ebola will kill fewer people in second half of 2015 than the in first half. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers before 2016. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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Warriors beat the Cavs (update with game one outcome and Kyrie's injury known) ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-06; known on 2015-06-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-19; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.