Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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Any film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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A non-Marvel film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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A film not produced by Disney or a Disney subsidiary to be the top-grossing 2019 film ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.
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No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2020 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday, 3/18/2019 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2019 US crude oil production ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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Taiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts) ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-09.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-17.
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The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-15.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q2 ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-07-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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Maduro ousted before end of 2019 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.
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Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-12; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12.
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Air Jordan 1 UNC Off-White X Nike collaboration sneakers will increase in value to at least $1000 in the next 9 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07; known on 2019-12-07.
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Someone to climb Uluru within three months after doing so is banned on October 26, 2019 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2020-02-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.
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[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019 ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-04.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on March 14, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-14.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Conservatives (EKRE) ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-24.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-19.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.
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[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.
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[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 H1 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Uber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-13.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2019 EOY ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.
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Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.