Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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“[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up.” —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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Chapter 86 of HPMOR will be published in 2012. ( 40% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Deb and Dex kiss. ( 40% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: San Francisco 49ers will beat the New England Patriots in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: real identity of Bay Harbor Butcher is publicly announced. ( 15% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Deb forgets the finale of season 6. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: a regular dies. ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged right by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Quinn investigates Dexter. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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Dexter season 7: Dexter will intentionally kill Deb ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-12-17.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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gwern.net total traffic will average <2000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: San Diego Chargers will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-17; known on 2012-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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NFL 2012: Chargers will win AFC West ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Patriots will win AFC East ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Indianopolis Colts in Week 15 of 2012 season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Chicago Bears in Week 15 of 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: New Orleans Saints will beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Atlanta Falcons in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Denver Broncos in Week 15 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-16; known on 2012-12-20; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Packers will win NFC North division ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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NFL 2012: Texans will win AFC South ( 70% confidence )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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I will be accepted to MIT EA. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Christopher on 2012-12-11; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-12-15.
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I will make >$5000 through bitcoins ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-12-15.
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I will take more than 40 grams of kratom until 31.12.2012. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-09-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-12-15.
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The Upperthong vs Paddock game will go ahead ( 50% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-11-30; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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fulham will beat newcastle ( 60% confidence )
Created by onthestairs on 2012-12-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged right by onthestairs on 2012-12-14.
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NFL: The Cinncinati Bengals will beat the Philadephia Eagles in Week 15 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-13; known on 2012-12-14; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-14.
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Google maps app for iPhone 5 won't be launched by end of 2012 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-13.
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Firefox's latest stable version number will at least double in 2012 ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by slikts on 2011-10-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by stephenh on 2012-12-13.
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Created by Matt on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-12-13.
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The world will end on 12 December 2012. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-03-17; known on 2012-12-13; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-13.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 7: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-11; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat Texas Texans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-11.
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I will use predictionbook at least 5 times in the next month ( 80% confidence )
Created by ohAitch on 2012-11-10; known on 2012-12-10; judged wrong by ohAitch on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Tampa Bay Bucs will beat the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.