Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09; known on 2019-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on March 14, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-14.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.
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R+L=J ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-13.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-12; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Market” to perform best ( 60% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Laplace” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] None of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-01). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09.
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The Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Theranos still exists as an independent company in 2025 (it's allowed to rename). ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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The combination of VMware and Dell will proceed (in spite of the October shareholder vote) with Dell paying no more than $22 billion in cash and stock to buy back the tracking stock securities that correspond with Dell's interest in VMware. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-29; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.
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Tempur Sealy International Inc stock will fall 15% below the current price of 55.39 in the next six months and remain (at least) below 5% of the current price at the end of the six months ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-09-01; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
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Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Personal – I suffer malaria symptoms before the end of the clinical trial. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-13; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Science – Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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The Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Mike Tomlin doesn't get fired ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Randy Fitchner doesn't get fired ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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[Politics] Eesti 200 to win at least one seat in the Estonian election. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances before UFC 235 ( 2% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] None of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Reach” to perform best ( 18% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Laplace” to perform best ( 28% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Market” to perform best ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.