Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 38% | 64% | 90% | 82% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 28 | 3 | 74 |
Displaying all predictions made by sflicht. Filter by:
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Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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United States pulls out of NATO ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Obama Pardons Hillary Clinton ahead of Trump presidency ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-24.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Quora will be bankrupt or acquired by a third party before 2020. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sflicht on 2016-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-11-10.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Noam Tanner will commit to voting for Hillary by October 1. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-08.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Dragon or Dragon-derived vehicle to the surface of Mars in the 2018 launch window. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by olivia on 2016-05-26; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-05-16.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-05-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2022-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
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There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Theranos still exists as an independent company in 2025 (it's allowed to rename). ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2017-05-02.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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The fed will increase the effective federal funds rate by the end of 2016 by at least .5% ( 61% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-08-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.
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More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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Armed conflict in space before 2050 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.
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Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Humans will be sent to Mars ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2035-10-16.
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WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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In the United States, manual labor will make up a larger percentage of the total workforce in 2035 than it does in 2015. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-14; known on 2036-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.