Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 48% | 60% | 69% | 73% | 92% | 75% | |
Sample Size | 44 | 73 | 48 | 45 | 62 | 4 | 276 |
Displaying all predictions made by RoryS. Filter by:
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The girl was the girl who I met in Kurt's kitchen that time ( 30% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-05-23; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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The two sections of the exam I have revised for will both come up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-15.
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Tories win >325 seats ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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We will win the game on BGO ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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There will be a question on Gödel's first incompleteness theorem ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-06; known on 2015-05-20; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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Lee is telling the truth ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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David is telling the truth ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is telling the truth ( 20% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Jo is telling the truth ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Paul is lying ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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I will use all the beansprouts I bought before their use-by date ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-10.
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Ryan and I will write a paper in the next year for the Foundational Research Institute ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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My curry will taste good ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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Juventus will win this game ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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I will arrive at the exam on time tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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I will feel confident after the exam tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-06.
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I will do all the revision tasks I have set for myself in the next working day ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-05.
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I will complete everything on my revision list before I leave the library ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-03.
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I will go to the library today ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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I will end up disputing a claim Edmund makes before I go home ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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Moises will make a Facebook status with the word 'haha' or some laughter variant before the end of the day ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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Nick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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I will not run into any of the LSE people I met at Molly's today ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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I will finish ahead of Nathan this game ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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We will win this game on BGO (provided Nathan's internet remains on) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-28.
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Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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If I decide to go, I will find Emily Skarbek's lecture on feminism and the free market interesting ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-21.
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Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cupcakes tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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Sasha will come with me to Ms Cupcake in Brixton tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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My money will come through by the end of tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will make sure to read through some Less Wrong articles today! ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-27.
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I will do 50 sit-ups before I go to sleep ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will get the number of the next person I approach ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-05-03; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-22.
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Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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I will do extensive revision for at least two of my modules by the time I go to sleep tonight ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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Real Madrid will win the 2015 Champions League ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-13.
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Barcelona will win the 2015 Champions League ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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Bayern Munich will win the 2015 Champions League ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-05-13.
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Juventus will win the 2015 Champions League ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2015-04-24; known on 2015-06-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2015-06-06.
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I will end up assigning a 50% or greater probability to a pro-life position by the end of the year ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will end up at least starting an academic postgraduate degree (excludes things like a PGCE, or medical conversion course) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2021-09-22.
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The frequency of my urination will be back to normal in a month's time ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-20.
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I will end up going out tonight ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-22; known on 2015-04-22; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.
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I will overcome very mild social anxiety to go to the thing on Tuesday ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22.
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Nathan will like Peep Show ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-21; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-08.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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The first train when I'm next travelling back from Canada Water will go straight where I want it to go ( 45% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.
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I will not arrive at Victoria at or before 21:45 ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.
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I will favour hedonistic to preference utilitarianism at the end of the year ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will get someone's number through meeting them in a bookshop before I leave London ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-14.
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I will go out when I get back on Monday ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-21; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-21.
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By Wednesday my piece on the Great Filter on Less Wrong will be at at least +12 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-22; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22.
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Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will get over 100 rupees in this BGO game. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will get a double dice roll at least once in this BGO game. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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We will win this BGO game. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will accidentally kill Rory in this BGO game… ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-19.
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Dad will be in when I wake up ( 33% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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My mussel linguine will taste good ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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Everyone will have awoken by the time I get out of bed tomorrow ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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I will end up at D's house before I leave London ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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I will end up sleeping at A, B, and C's house before leaving London ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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A will make a move on me before I leave London this year ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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Someone will ask about packing tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-20.
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I will find deontology convincing as a moral theory at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-02.
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The legal status of marijuana (including medical) in the UK will undergo a substantial change ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-16.
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My diet will still be vegan or bivalvegan at the end of this year ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will still self-identify as an effective altruist at the end of this year ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will be happy with the amount of revision I've done today ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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I will start blogging after exams ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-17.
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I'll read something insightful Foucalt has wrote in the next 3 hours of revising him. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Hurzek on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by Hurzek on 2015-04-18.
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I will have a text from Felix when I check my phone ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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My cooking tonight will involve udon noodles ( 40% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.
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I will become sympathetic to mainstream analytic metaphysics by the end of the year ( 2% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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If I use mussels tonight, I will successfully incorporate them into a good tasting meal ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-19; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-19.
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Arsenal will beat Reading ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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By the end of 2015, either a presidential candidate, a member of congress, or Obama, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential crisis. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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Someone will mention packing up tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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I will finish ahead of Nathan in this game of BGO (excluding premature departure) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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Someone will leave this game ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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Nathan will not win this game of BGO ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-18; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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We will this game on BGO ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17.
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I will encounter a girl, whom I genuinely want to be with and we'll date and be all cute and whatnot. (by the end of this year). ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-01.
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I will die at least once in this BGO game. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-17.
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At least one person will leave in this BGO game ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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My dad and sisters will be back before 4 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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My dad will ask if I slept well ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will wake up before 12 tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will wake up before 1 tomorrow ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will not find this podcast very useful (in terms of giving me new, relevant information) ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-17.
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I will not feed in my next league game. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-16.
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I can do 20 sit ups in 30 seconds ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-16.
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I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.