Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by Avadak. Filter by:
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human head transplant will be successful in 2017/2018? ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Avadak on 2015-05-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The target of Wikileaks's major American bank leak will be Bank of America ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-07-05.