Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 70% | 74% | 67% | 85% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 94 | 50 | 53 | 79 | 294 | 46 | 616 |
Displaying all predictions made by two2thehead. Filter by:
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2022-02-28.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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In 10 years, most computers and keyboards will exclude the “PAUSE” key ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-26; known on 2026-04-26.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.
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Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
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Hillary Clinton will win the U.S. general election on November 8, 2016. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ren on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Young girls will stop gossiping in Saskatoon ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Guy who charged stage at trump rally below is not actually a secret trump plant. ( https://twitter.com/virtadpt/status/709184534995075072 ) ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Gary Johnson to get > 5% of the vote in 2016 ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Bachar el Assad will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Boko Haram will be defeated this year. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-25.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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@realDonaldTrump will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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@paxdickinson will be suspended from Twitter for a week or longer before 2017 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-04.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Donald Trump will shave his head any time before the general election (no GOP nomination needed) ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-08.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be a woman. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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2016 North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Michael Bloomberg will be the next President-elect ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Martha McSally. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Chinese economy will be larger than the US in the future. After that, India is the next best candidate that could surpass US economy in the next 25 years. After that China and India could be competing for number one — Masoyoshi Son, Softbank ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-17; known on 2040-06-24.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.
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2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Technology will continue to advance ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tacita on 2015-08-26; known on 2016-08-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.
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As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.
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YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Kurdistan will be a UN member by 2018. ( 30% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by BiasedCalibration on 2016-06-30.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.