Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 56% | 60% | 58% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 9 | 5 | 12 | 15 | 3 | 46 |
Displaying all predictions made by moyamo. Filter by:
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Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.
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The day on day increase people tested positive for COVID19 in South Africa will on average be > 20% at least until 100,000 people have tested positive ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2020-03-24; known on 2020-04-20; judged wrong by moyamo on 2020-04-21.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Joe Biden ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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[Personal] I will be able to 100 consecutive push-ups six weeks from now ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi on 2019-02-13.
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I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
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I will have at least one more math paper published before the end of 2019. ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-12-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Zerocoin market cap >$7,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.
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Zerocoin market cap >$7,700,000,000 within 5 years (conditional on launch) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22.
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George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-09-22; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by moyamo on 2018-09-29.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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Personal – I will be free to go to the movies on Saturday 16 June. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-06-11; known on 2018-06-17; judged right by moyamo on 2018-06-17.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I'll be using Shiny Umbrella to reduce my typing by at least half in 3 months ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-04-08; known on 2018-07-08; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-07-09.
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We will go to war with North Korea ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by futurulus on 2018-07-01.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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A new book in the Song of Ice and Fire series will come out before 2018-06-18 #no_research ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-06-18; judged right by crabman on 2018-06-18.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2018, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-10-01.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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In the next 3 years, someone will use goodai.com's AI framework to build an AI that will be dangerous and/or powerful enough that the US government will acknowledge it as a major problem. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by timujin on 2015-07-09; known on 2018-07-09; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-08-12.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.