Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 33% | 50% | 100% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by FestiveBleak. Filter by:
-
Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Tesla's stock price will be below $200 per share on 01/01/2020. ( 60% confidence )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
There will be a breach of a large cloud service provider that will compromise thousands of sensitive accounts within this decade. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by SRA311B on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-12-31.
-
Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
-
PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
-
Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
-
Google Blogger will survive 5 more years ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
-
Google Analytics will survive 5 more years ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
-
Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
-
Google AdSense will survive 5 more years. ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
-
After March 9th, 2013, BTC will hit $300 before it hits $200. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-04-10.
-
BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
-
BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
-
Yomi will be released for iOS by May 15th ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.
-
The Fantasy Strike UI upgrade for Yomi will go live by May 15th ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.