Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.
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I will win the AI Box Experiment (Playing as an AI) scheduled on Sunday. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2013-01-21; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-20.
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Due to bright light and dark-red light cycling, tomorrow I will wake up like I did today: naturally and without sleeping in. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-20.
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I will find Accel World interesting enough to watch the whole first season. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-09-20; known on 2013-01-20; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-20.
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I will sleep better tonight after bright light exposure during the day ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-19.
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I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
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I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
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Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Evangelion 3.0: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
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Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 12: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-18.
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I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 11: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-16.
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Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-15.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-01-14.
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Friend who initially ignored my coming out will reliably refer to me with male pronouns within the year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-02-08; judged right by Leo on 2013-01-13.
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Elections judged democratic by foreign observers held in Mali ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-01-13.
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After the next Dutch General Election, the Prime Minister will be from the Socialist Party. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Iran will successfully launch a monkey into space by the end of 2012. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Before 2013, the US embassy in Beijing will stop publicly reporting air pollution readings (at least one continuous month with no readings) ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Kristin Stewart and Robert Pattinson will break up before end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Valve will release Steins;gate on steam given that 5pb consents. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by meisnewbie on 2012-01-23; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Diablo 3 will launch on consoles by end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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World record high temperature will reach or exceed 140 °F in 2012. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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b.crouzier estimated 60% and said “I will have achieved 2m views and 1000 subs on my youtube benjamincrouzier channel at the end of this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by b.crouzier on 2012-01-17; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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The first 3D printer virus(es) will be reported before the end of 2012. ( 90% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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“Global temperatures in 2012 to be highest recorded.” -ipredict ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Death Valley temperature will be recorded at or above 135 °F this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Coin lands heads. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12; known on 2013-01-12; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-12.
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Tech Thoughts: Google Nexus 7 to sell 6-8 million units in 2012 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-28; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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The first LW Purdue meetup will happen on January 11 ( 60% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by papermachine on 2013-01-11.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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NFL 2012: Andrew Luck will have a better season than Robert Griffin (measured by QBR ratings on espn.com for regular season) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Washington Redskins in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07.
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Bettina and Christian Wulff will divorce before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-09-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before midnight ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 11:30 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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Encoding done before 10:30 ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-01-07; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 57 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 35% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight more than 58 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 15% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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I will weight less than 54 kg on 2012-12-31 ( 30% confidence )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Indianapolis Colts in the wildcard round of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2013-01-05; known on 2013-01-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-06.
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6 or more people at party tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-01-04; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-06.
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In 2012 oil prices will reach $130+ a barrel. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by M3 on 2011-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-06.