Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 80% | 20% | 67% | 78% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 23 | 1 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by smijer. Filter by:
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Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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I will not use any more tobacco products in 2012 (as of prediction date) ( 95% confidence )
Created by smijer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-01-01.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
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Microsoft will release an official “Start menu” app for Windows 8 by June 2013 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-06-16.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Iran's upcoming statement on its nuclear programme will not concern development of weapons ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-02-11; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-02-15.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-05-16.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
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World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.