Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 82% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 12 | 24 |
Displaying all predictions made by n99. Filter by:
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“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.