Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 70% | 67% | 60% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 19 | 5 | 62 |
Displaying all predictions made by shokwave. Filter by:
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore kills Snape ( 30% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2014-02-27; known on 2016-02-27; judged wrong by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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My chart will settle into a pattern of moderate underconfidence (each point's accuracy between 20% and 10% above confidence) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2012-05-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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We will get through the second unit of this week's AI class lectures tomorrow ( 30% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.
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We will get through the first unit of this week's AI class lectures ( 70% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.
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On time: at the door by 8am tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-26; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.
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Dark Souls: Capra Demon dead by tonight ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.
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Dark Souls: Hellkite Dragon dead by tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-25; known on 2011-11-25; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-26.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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baslisks will join #lesswrong any time in December ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2011-12-02.
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Succeed on the TOVP tender ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-12-20; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.
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Finish this tender this afternoon ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-24; known on 2011-11-24; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-24.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2014. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Correctly answer midterm question 15 ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-21; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 14 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 13 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 12 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 11 ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 10 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 9 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 8 ( 60% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 7 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 6 ( 70% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 5 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 4 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 3 ( 100% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 2 ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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Correctly answer midterm question 1 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-21; known on 2011-11-22; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-22.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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Harbinger1 will be generally accepted to be a troll by the PB community ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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I will complete at least one of the new Stanford online classes (I signed up for 6 of them) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-11-18; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-04-15.
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Harbinger1 is a genuine user but unfamiliar with LessWrong tropes ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-20.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 mostly right (30/40) ( 99% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.3 right (yes/no on a grid of 40 squares testing if you following a simple policy correctly) ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework 5.2 mostly right (3 out of 4 rows completely right) ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.2 right. (12/12 – there are four rows of 3 answers each) ( 80% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 mostly correct: 3/4 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I will get ai-class homework question 5.1 correct 4/4 ( 90% confidence )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-11-16; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-17.
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I won't sleep tonight ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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I will have the Stanford ai-class anki deck up-to-date by the start of the midterm exams. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-11-19.
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MC will order modafinil within one month ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-22.
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YF will order modafinil within a month. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by shokwave on 2011-12-24.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will not officially fail https://www.beeminder.com/shokwave/goals/pbook before 2012 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be at or above the 98th percentile and thus eligible for Mensa membership. ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-11-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.