Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 78% | 61% | 50% | 60% | 67% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 18 | 8 | 15 | 33 | 1 | 84 |
Displaying all predictions made by Roxolan. Filter by:
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At least one card from the MtG sets Aether Revolt or Amonkhet will get banned in Standard. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Roxolan on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2018-01-01.
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[MtG] The “manlands” from Worldwake will be reprinted in Khans of Tarkir. ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-09-06; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by Serge on 2014-09-15.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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[HPMOR] The character killed in CH89 is dead and will stay dead. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raisin on 2014-05-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2015-03-04.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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MtG: There will be at least one reference to homosexuality per block in the next four blocks. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-28; known on 2019-05-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2019-05-16.
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At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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There will be at least one Mono Black Control (MBC) deck among the Pro Tour Theros Top 8 decks. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-17; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: a Theros rare/mythic that I haven't listed in my other predictions (predictionbook.com/predictions/21290 to 21335) ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Tymaret, the Murder King ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prophet of Kruphix ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Swan Song ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Arbor Colossus ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reaper of the Wilds ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Whip of Erebos ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Agent of the Fates ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Artisan of Forms ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Reverent Hunter ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Bow of Nylea ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hammer of Purphoros ( 3% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Daxos of Meletis ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anax and Cymede ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nylea, God of the Hunt ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Soldier of the Pantheon ( 5% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Ashiok, Nightmare Weaver ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Mistcutter Hydra ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Firedrinker Satyr ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Master of Waves ( 7% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Erebos, God of the Dead ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Spear of Heliod ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Gift of Immortality ( 10% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Nykthos, Shrine to Nyx ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Purphoros, God of the Forge ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fleecemane Lion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Boon Satyr ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Prognostic Sphinx ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Curse of the Swine ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Elspeth, Sun's Champion ( 15% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Steam Augury ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Polukranos, World Eater ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Heliod, God of the Sun ( 20% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Sylvan Caryatid ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Fabled Hero ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thassa, God of the Sea ( 30% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Triumph ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Silence ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Mystery ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Abandon ( 40% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Hero's Downfall ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Stormbreath Dragon ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Temple of Deceit ( 50% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Chained to the Rocks ( 65% confidence )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Xenagos, the Reveler ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Anger of the Gods ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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In the Standard top 8 decks or sideboards of Pro Tour Theros, there will be at least one copy of: Thoughtseize ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-14; known on 2013-10-14; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-13.
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If it sees play, widespread over 3+ decks as a star card, I'll eat my own fucking cum and post pictures. Note: Star card would mean it's something you play 4 off. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thatonedude on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-12-15.
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The MTG set M15 will include all or some of the M10/M11/M12/M13 dual lands and/or their Innistrad block counterparts. (aka the “checklands”.) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-11; known on 2014-07-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-06-28.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 19.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.
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On August 12, “Chandra, Pyromaster” will be sold at 9.95$ or more on starcitygames.com ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-07-12; known on 2013-08-12; judged right by Roxolan on 2013-08-12.
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The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Every planeswalker printed until 2017 will have at least one planeswalker ability that can always be used (regardless of board state or remaining loyalty). ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.
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There will be five or six newcomers at the next Brussels LessWrong meetup. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-03-12; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-03-16.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Microsoft will start selling Windows 9 by the end of 2014. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.