Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 50% | 72% | 64% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 14 | 29 | 50 | 61 | 7 | 173 |
Displaying all predictions made by playablecharacter. Filter by:
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No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major revolt (greater than or equal to Tiananmen Square) against Chinese Communist Party during 2017 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No Cast Lead style bombing/invasion of Gaza in 2017 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Assad will remain President of Syria throughout 2017 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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I will continue to use (in any form, on any machine) tmux in 2025 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one article Vipul Naik pays to create on the English Wikipedia will have good article or featured article status by the end of 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08; known on 2026-01-01.
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I go on an OKC date by February 15, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-02-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-02-15.
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I go on an OKC date next week ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-19.
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Tomorrow I will finish exporting the Quora questions I follow ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-08; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-01-08.
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I will be on University of Washington Seattle campus on January 20, 2017 ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-07; known on 2017-01-21; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2017-01-21.
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“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Akshat Shrivastava will drop out of the University of Washington ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-06-30.
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Vipul Naik will pay more (“payments due”) for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Israel annexes new land in 2017 ( 16% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Issa Rice source code (in its entirety) will be put into new hardware this year ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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The University of Washington will move up from its current ranking of 15 in ARWU before 2021 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Myself and a certain close friend will visit Japan during 2017 ( 9% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will experience a blackout while/after drinking alcohol during 2017 ( 86% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will suicide before 2021 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2039-01-01.
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A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Playablecharacter will graduate this Spring from college ( 88% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2017-06-15.
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Yahoo will cease to exist by 2026 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-05; known on 2026-01-01.
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Oakland's total homicide count is greater than 88 in 2017. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adbge on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Issa Rice will write down a new prediction each day on PredictionBook for the next month ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-02-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-02-03.
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By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Given an Obamacare repeal, a full replacement will be passed before the end of 2017 ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/ ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in any First World country (Western Europe, US, Japan, Australia) will kill > 100 people in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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I will consider myself to be “a person who drinks alcohol” at any point in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-02-13.
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I will read >15 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-11-11.
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I will drop out of my PhD in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Duterte OD's on some drug ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-23; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03.
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Terrorist Attack in US with >12 deaths or new US version of Falklands War (ie not war with Russia, China, EU but 'smaller country') ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-07-02.
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Milo Yiannopoulos becomes a woman( post-op ) ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-16; known on 2024-12-31.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.