Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Volume is less than 1.5 m^3 ( 79% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.
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weight is more then 150 kg ( 76% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-01.
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By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep all of my resolutions through the end of January. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Christian Democrat Party. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by on 2014-02-01.
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After the next German Federal Election, the Chancellor will be from the Social Democrat Party. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by on 2014-02-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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The internet will preach the virtues of open source and/or Adobe updates to me when I request help regarding RAW files and PS. Neither will actually be helpful. ( 90% confidence )
Created by vyctryx on 2014-02-01; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.
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Ed will join PredictionBook. ( 65% confidence )
Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.
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My sayat.me account will be rick-rolled within the week. (http://sayat.me/vyctryx) ( 75% confidence )
Created by vyctryx on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by vyctryx on 2014-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Google will write off more than $2b for Motorola purchase over the next 2 years. ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13; known on 2014-08-13; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-01-30.
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nobody will call about bed till 29.01 :( ( 75% confidence )
Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by mimikria on 2014-01-29.
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the eval will take a while ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-29.
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I will have 3 cups of coffee today ( 90% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-28; known on 2014-01-29; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-29.
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My sister will want to do just dance ( 40% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-28.
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i'll sell the table today ( 90% confidence )
Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-28; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-01-28.
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I will create a movie for Campus Moviefest this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-28.
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Will come home before 23 ( 90% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by vasaka on 2014-01-28.
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My parents will come back tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-27.
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We can find a table with two available outlets at Rao's. ( 45% confidence )
Created by tedks on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by tedks on 2014-01-27.
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I will level up on habitrpg this week ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-19; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-27.
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I will have heard of at least one of the top 5 websites on this page: http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/1w6ixc/what_is_the_best_website_that_nobody_knows_about/ ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26; known on 2014-01-27; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-26.
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my sister will yell today ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-26.
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I will attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14 and last at least 7 days (take 42 naps on the schedule without other sleep, and wake up from the 42nd nap on time). ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.
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I will not attempt the Uberman sleep schedule over winter break 2013-14. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-22; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-26.
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At least 5 wins. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-25; known on 2014-01-25; judged right by Mares789 on 2014-01-25.
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my mom will not remember to get dinosaur chicken nuggets ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-25.
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Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.
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Emanuel Rylke will not get a job within the next 2 years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukas on 2012-05-24; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2014-01-24.
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Someone will sing me happy birthday tomorrow. ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.
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I will get my passport this week ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-22; known on 2013-01-24; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-24.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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It will snow wednesday ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-01-23.
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There will be a snow storm tonight ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by reesarose on 2014-01-22.
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I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.
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Dexter's protégé will kill him before the end of Season 8. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-01-22.
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I'll complete my first job application ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-21; judged wrong by PaulaWalla on 2014-01-21.
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I will participate in Campus Moviefest this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-21; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-21.
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I'll study 2 hours ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mares789 on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-01-20; judged wrong by Mares789 on 2014-01-21.
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“Confession Bear” will be permanently banned on reddit.com/r/adviceanimals before 2014 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-01-20.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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United States military to use missiles in Syria before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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I will go to the LessWrong social meetup tonight ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atroche on 2014-01-17; known on 2014-01-17; judged right by atroche on 2014-01-20.
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I won't end up going to the Alexis Ohanian event tomorrow ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EvanB on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-19; judged right by EvanB on 2014-01-19.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.