Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
I will leave here before 10. ( 40% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-07; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.
-
My pal Max Misyura is an MBTI INTJ . ( 25% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by timujin on 2014-02-12.
-
Trishna's mail will be Jury Duty ( 85% confidence )
Created by Iksorod on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Iksorod on 2014-02-12.
-
Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.
-
I will be able to easily slide an index finger between my wrist and my watch that I haven't worn since before I started my transition. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged right by ZLM on 2014-02-11.
-
Between now and the end of May, I will miss fewer than ten lectures ( 40% confidence )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Rowan93 on 2014-02-10.
-
someone will come bother me in my room today ( 90% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-02-07; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.
-
my intake next tuesday will take around an hour ( 80% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-09.
-
The deep dark web will come under fire from a murder for hire plot setup on the dark web 'hidden wiki' ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-03-11; known on 2013-09-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-08.
-
Tomorrow I will eat breakfest before 9 a.m. ( 93% confidence )
Created by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by Amélie_Roy on 2014-02-08.
-
I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-12; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-08.
-
LiteCoin's double in value (to $50) in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-07.
-
Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least ten women to make prediction book accounts. ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-02-06.
-
Mount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow ( 10% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.
-
Denison will have a snow day tomorrow ( 1% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.
-
There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
-
I will genotype my son before his 1st birthday. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-02-05.
-
Electoral Vote Predictor (run by Andrew Tannenbaum) will come back in 2014. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
-
There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
-
There will be a snow day at Denison tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
-
There will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky will follow Kevin's diet (see comments for details) for at least three months in the next two years. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-12-26; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-02-05.
-
hanoi flat will be at 5th floor ( 75% confidence )
Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.
-
V of our things is <2.5m^3 and >2m^3 ( 80% confidence )
Created by mimikria on 2014-01-29; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by mimikria on 2014-02-05.
-
rishta will come ( 60% confidence )
Created by mimikria on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-02; judged right by mimikria on 2014-02-05.
-
[mredacteds] will get an A in algorithms this semester. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-11; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
-
[redacted] will ask for a regrade on eir algorithms exam, and get at least 1 point back. ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-15; known on 2014-01-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
-
I will be allowed to go to the IEEE conference by my parents. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-06; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
-
Assuming Bernanke leaves in 2014, Janet Yellen more likely to be Fed Chairman than Tim Geithner ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-18; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-04.
-
My next 10 showers will be cold showers. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-04.
-
I will live higher then 5th floor ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by vasaka on 2014-02-04.
-
My hanoy building would have more than 10 levels ( 65% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-27; known on 2014-02-04; judged wrong by vasaka on 2014-02-04.
-
There will be heavy winds acting up across the United States within the next week ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nomi on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by Snowshi on 2014-02-04.
-
Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by mitodoteira on 2014-02-04.
-
The speaker I'm listening to will bring up the fact that people fear public speaking more than death. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.
-
I will get to class before the girl I passed. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03; known on 2014-02-04; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-03.
-
I'll get the job ( 80% confidence )
Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.
-
I will do my homework this weekend ( 30% confidence )
Created by NikiTaylor on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-02-03; judged right by NikiTaylor on 2014-02-03.
-
I will go to the grocery store today ( 60% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.
-
I will work out today ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-01-31; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-03.
-
I will go on a date with a girl within the next 3 weeks. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by entropy on 2014-02-03.
-
The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
-
The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
-
At least one person will be banned from #lesswrong in February 2014. (only valid for people who have never before been banned from the channel) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-02-01.
-
Technoviking will lose the lawsuit about usage of his image ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-02-01.
-
Activision or EA will announce they have obtained the Homeworld 3 IP by Feb 1 2014. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DaFranker on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2014-02-01.