Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 54% | 52% | 71% | 90% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 13 | 25 | 28 | 39 | 73 | 15 | 193 |
Displaying all predictions made by ChristianKl. Filter by:
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Osama Bin Laden will not be captured or neutralized before the end of June, 2010. ( 80% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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PredictionBook will implement tagging for predictions in the next two months. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-12-15; judged wrong by Jack on 2009-12-28.
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.
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Germany will be governed by a CDU + FDP coalition during april, may, and june of 2010. ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Drahflow on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-07-01; judged right by JFE on 2010-07-02.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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Neither USA nor Israel will execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before 30 Jun 2010 ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-06-30; judged right by rwallace on 2010-06-30.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.