Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Russell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting) ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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A stereo thief shot Gamby ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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brown shot gamby ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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I will keep to my self-imposed rules on T for six months, without cheating, bending the rules, or making any exceptions under any circumstances. ( 88% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-11-11.
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I will read >15 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-11-11.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Personal, Business Interactions – Openreach engineer actually shows up at my property on 2017-11-09 between 8AM and 1PM per booking. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-08; known on 2017-11-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-09.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 2x fork is the sole surviving chain, or core doubles the block size. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-11-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-05. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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SpaceX will delay the initial launch of the Falcon Heavy past the end of November ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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The final episode of the Israeli TV series Metumtemet (“Dumb”) is coming soon. I predict that either the Ethiopian police officer or her suspended partner will fail to survive. Probably the partner. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nosnivel on 2017-10-25; known on 2017-10-29; judged wrong by nosnivel on 2017-10-29.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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Politics, EU – Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-28.
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I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged wrong by regex on 2017-10-28.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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Catalan independence declaration ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27.
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I will start working for pay during the next 3 months ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-10-15; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-26.
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On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
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Esteban Bullrich's Cambiemos will obtain more votes than Cristina Kirchner's Union Ciudadana in the Argentine elections this Sunday, reverting the previous result in the PASO elections. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged right by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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resource booker updated ( 10% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-24; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-10-24.