Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 83% | 67% | 83% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 9 | 2 | 41 |
Displaying all predictions made by M. Filter by:
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2023 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 20% confidence )
Created by M on 2023-01-01; known on 2024-01-02.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
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The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.
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It is legal and possible to anonymously buy recreational Cannabis in Germany by December 31 2022 (at least one actual legal shop/seller, can be online) ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2023-01-01.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+CDU/CSU ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+Greens+FDP ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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In Germany CoViD cases (per 100k people per week) will rise again within a month (due to Delta variant) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-07-21; judged right by qznc on 2021-07-21.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.