Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kirsten Gillibrand ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] John Hickenlooper ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-30.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during December 2019 to be] under $40 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2020-01-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the eurozone ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the eurozone ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 “newcomers” ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.
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No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-17.
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The Urbit network will never have >50.000 users over the span of a month. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-03-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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Maduro ousted before end of 2019 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.
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Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-24.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-19.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM ( 90% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
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American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
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Before 1 January 2020, any EU member state besides the UK sets a date for a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Bitcoin finishes year < $10k USD ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.