Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 6 |
Displaying all predictions made by James Babcock. Filter by:
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-09.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The FOURIER trial of a PSCK9 inhibitor will not show a statistically significant improvement in its primary endpoint. ( 90% confidence )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2018-06-23.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.