Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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My spring 2022 final grades will not include any letter grade below an A-. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-29; known on 2022-06-01.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.
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M's PCR comes back positive ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09; known on 2022-01-13; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01.
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My paper will not get a flat rejection ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-03-15.
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germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
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In a year, I will not regret getting into defi ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by claerity on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-11-23; judged unknown by claerity on 2022-11-23.
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There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
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My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-09-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-06.
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Trump will start a TV show before 2025. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2025-01-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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Joe Biden (or replacement Democrat) wins the popular vote by a margin of 8% or more ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-09; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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Texas's daily new confirmed COVID cases will be >=8000 as of July 11, 2020, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9be2zJ). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Florida's daily new COVID cases count will be >=7500, as measured by Google's tracker (https://g.co/kgs/9XhcYm), on July 11, 2020. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-13; known on 2020-07-11; judged right by krazemon on 2020-07-11.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to reopen for fall 2020 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-08-01.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2018-01-02; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
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My relationship with L. will still be ongoing as of the end of June 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by imaxwell on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by imaxwell on 2018-06-30.
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2017 predictions: conditional on using work time tracking through Dec 31, my weekly average will be >41 hours. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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bet with sam: there are 350-450 calories in a full watermelon ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-06-16.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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United apologizes for conflict with engaged couple ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-05-01.
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terrorist attack in boston on the day of the boston marathon (unsuccessful attempts included) ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-19.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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application for renting the place on peter st turned down ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-01-14; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will run >2500 miles in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tstelzig on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2018-03-05.
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I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.
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I will finish my dissertation before March 30, 2017 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19.
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I will read at least 20 substantive books during 2017 (not reread, excluding light fiction) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.
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I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read every new SSC in 2017 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will consider myself “in a relationship” at any point in 2017 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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I will be asking people to use gender-neutral pronouns for me by the end of 2017 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-02-13.
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I will read >15 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-11-11.
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I will drop out of my PhD in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be living in boston ( 92% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 drawings ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2018-01-01.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 blog posts ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will consider myself more comfortable with R than python ( 12% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year ( 92% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be noticeably worse. ( 52% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be resolved. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 19.6 – 20.5 inclusive. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 – 19.5 inclusive. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be working at my current company. ( 77% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have a baby (or be pregnant). ( 3% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will use work time tracking through Dec 31. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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Rousey beats Amanda Nunes ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-30; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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I read >13 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will read 2+ French books in 2017 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-03-07.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 12 months ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21; judged right by penten on 2018-12-21.
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I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will have given up alcohol by 1st Jan 2018 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I cycled to work at least twice in the last month. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by penten on 2017-05-01.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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Holly Holm will beat Ronda Rousey in their rematch. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-03; known on 2017-12-04.
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The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-11-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2018-05-26.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.