Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 33% | 38% | 100% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 9 | 13 | 8 | 8 | 1 | 42 |
Displaying all predictions made by freyley. Filter by:
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If the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Someone will explain, in this prediction perhaps, how there are 623 known predictions in the statistics, but only 700 predictions sitewide, and there are way more than 100 unknown predictions. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-23; known on 2009-11-06; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-06.
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The current (10/21/09) predictionbook UI, with the right/wrong/unknown above the certainty/comments section, will still be sufficiently similar (and similarly bad) by 12/01/2009 that people mistakenly judging predictions will still happen at least three t ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-22; known on 2009-12-03; judged right by NineteenHalves on 2009-12-03.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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The kittens will still have giardia. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-11-10.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.
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There will be a public option in the upcoming health reform ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2010-07-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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There will be a third party candidate that gets more than 5% in the 2012 election for president in the US. ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Monica will live in a different zipcode in 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-15; known on 2014-10-15; judged right by freyley on 2014-10-15.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Sarah Palin will not be the Republican nominee for president of the United States in 2012 ( 80% confidence; 25 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-09-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-03.
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The recession will end this year ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TwitterPredicts on 2009-06-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.