Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Batfoy ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Matt Buco ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] DanQZ ( 75% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Joseph Saelee ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Greentea ( 80% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Koryan ( 75% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged right by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Harry Hong ( 50% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[The 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be won by ] Jonas Neubauer ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-21; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[One of the top 8 at the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be] Jonas Neubauer ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-20.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 8 ( 90% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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The lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 12 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 15 ( 30% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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[The number of people with a maxout (999999) qualifying score for the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be at least] 18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-19; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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[REDACTED INDIVIDUAL CODE A] is no longer working at [REDACTED ORG CODE A] in six months ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-10-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
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Eliud Kipchoge's October 2019 “Ineos 1:59 Challenge” marathon time will be less than 2:00:00 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-07-04; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-12.
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[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-12.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-12.
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Games Workers Unite will be generally considered a failure on October 1st 2019 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2018-03-23; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-10-11.
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Still at my current employer a year from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-10-10.
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It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Jul-Aug-Sep 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Commodities] As of October 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of September 2019 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-10-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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[Baseball] The New York Mets will make it to The World Series in 2019 ( 10% confidence )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.
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The Red Sox will win the world series. ( 75% confidence )
Created by williamsmithpennstate on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-10-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-09.
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[Fighting] Robert Whittaker to fight Israel Adesanya in 2019 ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for August 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-10-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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Kim Jong Un to visit Seoul by 2019-10-01 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.