Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 80% | 80% | 80% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 5 | 10 | 21 | 4 | 47 |
Displaying all predictions made by ShIxtan. Filter by:
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry will obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (in addition to his Cloak) to become Master of Death. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jordan_Hoyt on 2013-07-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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A live-action Metal Gear movie will be released before 2020 and Kiefer Sutherland will play Snake or Big Boss. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-06-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Virtual Retinal Displays become the dominant technology for heads up displays ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PrometheanFaun on 2013-05-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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In HPMOR, Snape is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2063-04-26.
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Life discovered on Jupiter in next 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2113-04-26.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Yomi will be released for iOS by May 15th ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.
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The Fantasy Strike UI upgrade for Yomi will go live by May 15th ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-15.
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feds take down silk road within a year ,from a undercover agent selling ids and monitoring emails ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ledzep6551 on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.
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On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Curiosity discovers ancient life forms in Martioian soil ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tsathoggua on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-05-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Obama's approval rating will exceed 55% on average for the next 12 months (Nov 12 -> Nov 13) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16.
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My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
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“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.