Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 22% | 53% | 60% | 79% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 30 | 1 | 84 |
Displaying all predictions made by dhoe. Filter by:
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Angela Merkel to win peace Nobel price ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2015-10-09.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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By March 22, 2035, at least one currently OECD country will have at least 20% of all cars be self-driving. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-22; known on 2035-03-22.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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I will go to the LessWrong social meetup tonight ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atroche on 2014-01-17; known on 2014-01-17; judged right by atroche on 2014-01-20.
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America Movil will succeed in its hostile takeover of KPN ( 30% confidence )
Created by dhoe on 2013-08-09; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-17.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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Cécile Kyenge will resign before the regular end of her mandate ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-29; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-08-28.
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Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Ubuntu Edge will raise 32 million dollar on IndieGoGo ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-08-22.
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Amazon will purchase 50% of PayPal from Ebay by the end of 2014. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dovfischer on 2013-07-15; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Tim Cook departs as CEO of Apple before Steve Ballmer departs as CEO of Microsoft ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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There will be a New York Times article about reactionaries before 2014 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
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Square will go public in 5 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2018-03-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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Oscar Pistorius to be convicted of murder of Reeva Steenkamp. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-01-20.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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23andme will have processed my sample within 6 weeks of receiving it ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by dhoe on 2013-02-14.
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Logs from Tesla Motors will vindicate Elon Musk and the Tesla Model S. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by procran on 2013-06-14.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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Technoviking will lose the lawsuit about usage of his image ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-02-01.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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Israeli Elections: The new government’s coalition will include Shas. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-24; known on 2013-03-20; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-03-20.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2014 ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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NL: There will be an Elfstedentocht this winter ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-05-01.
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DE: Philipp Roesler will step down as chairman of the FDP before the federal election ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-01.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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DE: Steinbrueck will be the next Chancellor of Germany ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-14; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The Willy Brandt Airport Berlin will open before the end of 2014 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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DE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-09; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-09-24.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Valuewalk, Forbes: Nokia will sell its mobile business in 2013 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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The comet Ison will not be brighter than the full moon. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/) ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.
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Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Glass Delayed in 2013 After Developers Puzzle Over Its Reason For Being ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dk on 2013-12-19.
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There will be a mass shooting in the US, defined as a shooting where more than 10 people are injured or killed ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-02-23; judged wrong by modulus on 2013-02-23.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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I will still live in Berlin at the end of 2014 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by ChristianKl on 2015-01-01.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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NL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
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NL: The second Rutte cabinet will last less than 2 years ( 70% confidence )
Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Bettina and Christian Wulff will divorce before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-09-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-01-07.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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Angela Merkel will be reelected chancellor in 2013 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2012-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2013-12-16.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Conditional on not buying RIM, Microsoft will license Android. —Cringely ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.