Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 82% | 50% | 82% | 82% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 17 | 3 | 53 |
Displaying all predictions made by mortehu. Filter by:
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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No human beats the best Go AI in an unhandicapped competitive game by 2020 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Israeli–Palestinian conflict comes to an end in 2017 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Bitcoin price reaches $500 before June 2016 (1 BTC ≥ 500 USD) ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-06-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-04-28.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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Bids on NASDAQ:PCLN will reach at least $1250 on day after Q2 earnings release. ( 60% confidence )
Created by mortehu on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-08-05; judged right by mortehu on 2014-08-11.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The price of one bitcoin on MtGox goes above $500 at some point before end of November 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-15; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by tedks on 2013-11-17.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.