Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Twinkies contain between 150 and 500 calories each. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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I will go to choir tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-03; known on 2014-05-04; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-04.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
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I will reach the 2500 achievement points level in fewer than 12 days ( 75% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-05-11; judged right by bibliophile221B on 2014-05-03.
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Tomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping. ( 30% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-05-03; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-03.
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From May 2014 to April 2015 (inclusive), Microsoft will not ship any free security patches or hotfixes for Windows XP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-15; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-01.
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Jefra will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, pagent girl) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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Spencer will be voted out on this episode of Survivor: Cagayan ( 75% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day through the 1st of May ( 90% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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I will make 1 or more predictions a day and remember to check them off on HabitRPG through the end of April ( 95% confidence )
Created by bibliophile221B on 2014-04-26; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-05-01.
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I will buy a car before graduating college. ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-12; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for Ender's game is between 12 and 98% ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Rotten tomato score for ender's game is between 25 and 45 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-01.
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Will run into friend on their way to work ( 5% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Friend's girlfriend will be at house when I get there ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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get to friend's house in morning, they will still be there. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-04-29; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-30.
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Sheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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BMR will not be operating in 6 months ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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i will finish chapter three today ( 89% confidence )
Created by Flipnash on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-04-29; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-29.
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I will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-29.
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One of my 2 friends will be wearing jeans when I go to meet them. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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In worm, Eidolon did not create the Endbringers subconsciously or otherwise. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2014-04-28.
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Jeremiah will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, model) ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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R will submit picks on Fantasy UFC for UFC172 ( 80% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-27; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-27.
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30 Rock episode 1 they go to Burger King after the restaurant. ( 75% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-04-27.
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I will go with my friend to California this week. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-25; known on 2014-04-28; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-26.
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I will look at my phone right after getting up and it will be between 5 and 6. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23; known on 2014-04-23; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-04-23.
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David Moyes will not be Manchester United manager at the end of January 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-03-18; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by dgray on 2014-04-23.
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LJ will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (beauty tribe, bartender) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-22.
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I will lose the game today, (other than within an hour of predicting this) ( 70% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-04-22; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-04-21.
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Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-20; judged right by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2014-04-21.
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I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.
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CIV PBF 88 : Arabia wins ( 60% confidence )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-10; judged right by Osuniev on 2014-04-19.
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The website namemydaughter.com will prove to be viral marketing or to have some other kind of hidden motive. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-05-01; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2014-04-18.
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I will do 8-12 pomodoros on April 16. ( 55% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-18; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-04-18.
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I will waste less than 60 minutes on April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-17.
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424 HW #7 will take 4 or fewer pomodoros ( 85% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-17; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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I will wake up at 7am April 16. ( 50% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-04-16; judged right by from3004 on 2014-04-16.
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Mh370 black box discovered ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by procran on 2014-04-06; known on 2014-04-15; judged wrong by procran on 2014-04-15.
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David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.
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CoffeeScript infrastructure deployment script will be functional within 72 hours of development time ( 80% confidence )
Created by schmatz on 2014-04-07; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by schmatz on 2014-04-13.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12.
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Australia will win TUF:Nations Canada VS Australia (Welterweight) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2014-04-11.