Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Dustin Poirier will defeat Pablo Garza in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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Ricardo Lamas will defeat Cub Swanson in their fight on November, 12th. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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DaMarques Johnson will defeat Clay Harvison in their fight on November, 12th. ( 76% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-13.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson’s “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to construct a captive breeding program to make Mistborn ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-13.
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TS will say e plans to undertake a PhD in immunology ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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GJP: #1042 Will Lucas Papademos be the next Prime Minister of Greece? ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-13.
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I won't sleep tonight ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by shokwave on 2011-11-12; known on 2011-11-12; judged right by shokwave on 2011-11-13.
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Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.
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“Silvio Berlusconi to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 67% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1005: Will Daniel Ortega win another term as President of Nicaragua during the late 2011 elections? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-12-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.
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“Joe Paterno to announce his resignation before midnight ET 30 Nov 2011” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-10.
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cousin_it is the other vladimir ( 70% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by u_ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-08-18; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-17.
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I will make more changes to predictionbook that will be included in the official repo, where inclusion happens before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10.
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I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.
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I will get over a 79 on my Biology test ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-09.
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Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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In Sanderson's “Allow of Law” it will turn out that either Marasi or Steris is (or becomes) a full Mistborn or a full Feruchemist. ( 8% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.
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The kidnappings in Sanderson's “The Alloy of Law” will turn out to be in order to make hemalurgic spikes from the victims. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-08.
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'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson] ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.
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I will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-07.
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Dexter season 6: Brother Sam dies. ( 60% confidence )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-07.
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Dexter season 6: Brother Sam deconverts. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-07.
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The Baltimore Ravens will lose to the Pittsburgh Steelers on 2011-11-06. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hackedtobits on 2011-11-04; known on 2011-11-07; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-07.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.
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The next wave of internet bubbles will be based around services that harvest, collate and compute “Human meta data”. Most of which will come from Smart phone and Social Networking data plus real time obscure meta data will come from human input. ( 90% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by senectus on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2012-12-26.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Five people will join this prediction until friday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-05.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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By november 8th, I will have submitted a (new) graduate school application. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2011-11-08; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2011-11-05.
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The people who join this prediction until friday will bet 45% to 55% on average. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.
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Three people will join this prediction until friday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-11-05.
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The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.
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Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.