Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 66% | 75% | 84% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 43 | 70 | 113 | 95 | 143 | 2 | 466 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Dickens. Filter by:
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The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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Conditional on trying, I will successfully bench 200 pounds for one rep. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-12-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-11-10.
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Within three years, Open Phil makes a grant to an animal advocacy org to support consumer-side intervention(s). ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31.
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github still exists ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.
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Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.
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One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-22; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-22.
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Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-16.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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My next two attempts to set 5-rep PRs on the bench press will both be successful. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-30.
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On Monday I will successfully bench 187.5 pounds for 3 sets of 3 reps. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.
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On Monday I will successfully squat 315 pounds for 5 reps. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-03.
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By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-01-01.
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By 2018 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
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Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-09-07.
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Open Phil makes a grant on meat alternatives within five years. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11.
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C++17 released ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-16; known on 2036-07-17.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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(Game of Thrones spoilers) Prefrv oheaf qbja Xvat'f Ynaqvat va frnfba 6 be 7 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-26; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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SPOILER GAME OF THRONES ASOIAF. Pbaqvgvbany ba E+Y=W orvat erirnyrq ba F6R10, gur raqvat fprar jvyy or bs vg orvat erirnyrq. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-29; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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R+L=J revealed in episode 10 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-06-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-06-30.
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ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-19; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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S06E10 ends the same way as the Dance with Dragons epilogue. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
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S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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LSH in season 6 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-27.
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Carl Shulman will point out something I did wrong on my quantitative models post. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-19.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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Jake's jitter error is a bug in his program. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-01-29; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-28.
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The last two candidates vying for GOP nomination will be Cruz and Rubio. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Kelsey is Snape ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22; known on 2016-01-23; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-22.
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Ansh pushes the complete engine before tomorrow morning. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-02.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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TWOW will be published before GOT season 6 airs. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-07; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-16.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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As of 2015-08-19, Eliezer Yudkowsky has solved the hard problem of consciousness. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-08-20; known on 2045-08-20.
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Average world IQ to decrease from 2015 to 2050 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-19; known on 2051-01-01.
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In 3 years, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2018-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-05-14.
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In 1 year, I will believe that functionalism is the most correct theory of mind. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-05-12; known on 2016-05-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-13.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will get an offer from DD. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-03-09.
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By 2030, same-sex marriage will be legal everywhere in the US. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-02-23; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by alexneptune on 2016-03-01.
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S&P 500 P/E below 9 any time before 2020 Jan 1. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Hafthor Bjornsson wins 2015 World's Strongest Man. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-23.
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Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.
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A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-10-24; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-06-15.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2014. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Usain Bolt sets a new world record in the 100m. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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Barack Obama will do the Ice Bucket Challenge this year. ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-08-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-08-27.
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iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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In one month, my score will be higher than the site average. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-07-07.
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“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.
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“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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House Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Targaryen (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Twinkies contain between 150 and 500 calories each. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-06; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-05-06.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Littlefinger was (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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The Tyrells were (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-12.
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By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.
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The drawing on the board is a depiction of the fat man dilemma. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-02.
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This thread (http://www.reddit.com/r/AskReddit/comments/2173oq/what_movie_has_the_best_opening_scene/) will have “Up” as one of the top five answers. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-25.
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Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-21; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.
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According to http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2014/03/18/289013884/who-had-richer-parents-doctors-or-arists artists have richer parents than doctors. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20; known on 2014-03-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-20.
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The valonqar is Tyrion Lannister. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13.
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The valonqar is Jaime Lannister. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13.