Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 48% | 60% | 69% | 73% | 92% | 75% | |
Sample Size | 44 | 73 | 48 | 45 | 62 | 4 | 276 |
Displaying all predictions made by RoryS. Filter by:
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My sisters will be home before 4 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-16.
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The laptop will be plugged in ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-15.
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My sisters are getting picked up at 4 o'clock ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-15.
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The stir fry will still be too hot upon checking ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15.
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The muesli will be good ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-15.
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I have made a list of 30 words (No longer than 5 characters). I have 2 minutes to memorise as many as I can. I think I can memorise at least 18. I have 2 minutes to write down as many as I can. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will not play league at all tomorrow. Even if my friends ask me to play a game. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15.
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I will decide on MIRI as a charity that I donate a proportion of my donation money to. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-12-31.
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I will have sex in Sasha's room ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-09.
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My calibration will be better than Rory's. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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Lily will either 'like', or in some way acknowledge the birthday message on her wall. ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-15; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-16.
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Friend A will end up getting with Friend B by the end of August ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-18.
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The Facebook message will be from Kat ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Ryan ( 10% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The Facebook message will be from Nathan ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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QPR will beat Chelsea ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-13.
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Chelsea will beat QPR ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The QPR-Chelsea match will end in a draw ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-04-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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My hair will be complimented next time I go clubbing ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-05-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-27.
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I will complete all revision tasks to my satisfaction tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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My next Facebook notification will be from a group ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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The next (new) person I have sex with will not be someone I meet in a pub or a club ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will stay in tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-12-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-12.
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I will not run into Kat tomorrow ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will see Ryan tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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I will be on time to meet Nathan tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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The shower will be fixed by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-11.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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I will be not be in a formal, romantic relationship (open relationships included) throughout 2015 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Molly will be with Felix when I arrive ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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I will meet Felix before 8 o'clock tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2015-09-04; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-09.
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There will be 4 people or more (including myself) at the first meeting of the Chicago rationality group. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-04; known on 2015-04-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-04-06.
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I will achieve a 1:1 at the end of first year university ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-01; known on 2015-07-12; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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I will see Ryan this week ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-04.
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I will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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UKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The mainstream conservative and feminist opinions end switch positions on unisex toilets. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-01-08; known on 2015-12-31.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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At least one of Leicester City, Burnley and Queens Park Rangers will be relegated. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-23.
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The next government will be a coalition ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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“The average European unemployment rate for 2009-2018 (i.e., the next decade) will be at least 1% higher than U.S. unemployment rate.” Bryan Caplan ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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I will be alive on my 26th birthday. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-30.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.