Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 21 |
Displaying all predictions made by benwr. Filter by:
-
The U.S. federal reserve will raise the federal funds target rate above 0.25% by June 2016 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
-
“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
I will be alive at the end of this class period. ( 100% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
I will get an A in at least one of the two classes I'm taking during winter session. ( 90% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-21.
-
My flight from Chicago to Roanoke will not be canceled tomorrow evening. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Bulls will beat/draw against Magic ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Pistons will beat/draw against Raptors ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Nets will beat/draw against Rockets ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Celtics will beat/draw against Pelicans ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
I will graduate from Virginia Tech with a BS in Computer Engineering at the end of the Spring 2015 semester ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by benwr on 2016-01-27.
-
North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
-
My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
-
Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
M will take Geom1 reexam. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by adri on 2015-07-19.
-
A will go to Top reexam. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adri on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by adri on 2015-01-25.
-
Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
-
P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Teleportation of simple molecules by 2018 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
-
Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
-
Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
-
Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.