Upcoming Predictions
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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A longterm (with humans present at least sixth months) colony will occur on Mars before it occurs on the Earth's moon. ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Prime Minister Patty Hajdu ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Zero humans will have been in orbit around another planet by 2050 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least one country will decide its head of state by a reality show with real time votes by 2050 ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by volis on 2018-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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The public will either have at least six months advance notice prior to the use of the first quantum computer for bitcoin mining (w/ SHA256), or such a quantum computer will not exist prior to 2050. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-04-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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In the United States of America, driverless cars will have been sold to the public and it will have been legal at some point to use them on highways before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2050-01-01.
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UAV's/drones will be commercially viable before self driving cars ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JosefK on 2014-01-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will not go on this website between January 1st 2040 and January 1st 2050. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2050-01-01.
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There will be a breakthrough in mass cell culture that allows for growing artificial human organs & “clean meat” by 2050 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-04-16; known on 2050-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2050. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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Climate change refugees will polarise America and lead to mass protests followed by a proto fascist government by 2050 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by product on 2020-09-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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The monolithic one-party policy of the CCP will have been abolished by 2050 ( 25% confidence )
Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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united Korea's GDP > France, Germany, and Japan in 2050 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, the Great Red Spot will no longer be the largest storm on Jupiter. ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
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Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.
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India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2050, less than 20% of the United States will attend church on a regular basis (at least 3 times a month)” —Alex M ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-19; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.