Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Jeb Bush to be next President elect of the US. ( 15% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-19; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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Google Scholar will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-15; known on 2025-07-01.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Direct commercial access to the web through a brain link by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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Reddit will lose ≥50% of its userbase to Voat or similar by 2018, due to censorship concerns ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2018-05-31.
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Bernie Sanders to still be in the race by March 8th, 2016 ( 77% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-06; known on 2016-03-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-08.
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I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.
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Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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Arab Spring 2: The Springening. “Men will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest” Denis Diderot (1713-1784) The final days of the last monarchies on earth. All the Arab monarchs will be violently overthr ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2020-05-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2015-09-01 and 2016-05-01 ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-05-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-05-02.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Rand Paul not winning the Republican nomination for President, the eventual Democratic nominee will win the popular vote by at least 2%.. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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Both the Republicans and the Democrats to each have at least 34 US Senators after the 2016 election ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-20; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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Bharat will pass France in 2016 in terms of GDP current prices using the IMF as the data source. Bharat is already the the world's 3rd largest by PPP. It will be ranked 6th biggest economy in the world. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2016-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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[Federal] Minimum wage is raised >$2 under the Obama administration ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-01; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-23.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
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John Kasich will be the next President of the United States. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the next president elect. ( 62% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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In the 2016 election, a majority of Hispanic voters (as determined by exit polls) will vote for the Republican candidate. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-12.
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By May 1, 2017, will be publicly known that the US government had head transplant technology. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.
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I will be diagnosed with Narcolepsy with cataplexy within 1 year. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-24.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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By April 21, 2020, World War III will have broken out. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-21; known on 2020-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-04-21.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Uber, Palantir, Airbnb, Dropbox, Pinterest, and SpaceX to be collectively worth over $200b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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By January 1, 2025 at least one OECD country with a population of at least 5 million people will have more than half of all cars be self-driving. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Contingent on him being nominated for President by the GOP, Rand Paul will be elected President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-11-28.
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by 2017 at least 8 states will have legalized recreational use of marijuana. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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recreational use of marijuana will be legalized in arizona by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will run for president again in 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-15; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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At least 10% of packages in any major country delivered autonomously (last kilometer) in 2019. ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by brandyn on 2020-01-01.
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Another major global economic collapse will happen. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by realityriot on 2015-01-14; known on 2017-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-17.
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A nuclear bomb (primary, not dirty) will be detonated, anywhere on earth, immediately killing more than 100 people, any time between 2015/1/1 and 2020/1/1. ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by brandyn on 2015-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Republican VP candidate in 2016 will be Nikki Haley. ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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By January 1, 2019 War between North Korea and at least one of the US, Britain, China, Japan, South Korea, or the collapse of the North Korean government. ( 25% confidence; 15 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Hillary Clinton will not become the next president of the USA ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by truerepublican on 2014-10-18; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Fracking will be banned in the United States by 2024 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lisalister on 2014-09-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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Bill Simmons: Sports gambling legal in the US by 2020 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-09-06; known on 2020-12-31.