Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 59% | 78% | 64% | 100% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 16 | 22 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 6 | 79 |
Displaying all predictions made by lettergram. Filter by:
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Tech – Betfair resolves the 2020 US Presidential Election Next President market by the end of the 25th of November 2020. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-18; known on 2020-11-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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There will be shortages of COVID-19 vaccine in the US ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-11-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by Mendez on 2021-07-01.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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U.S. Stock Market at or above current worth through the November 2020 elections (as measured by the S&P500 – $2886.73 on June 10th 2019) ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2019-06-10; known on 2020-11-05; judged right by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics – North Korea conducts a nuclear test before 1 January 2020. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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AMD's stock hits $20 by May 16, 2019 ( 60% confidence )
Created by lettergram on 2018-05-16; known on 2019-05-16; judged right by lettergram on 2018-12-18.
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Donald Trump and Kim Jong Un will meet in 2018. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-12.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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AMD's stock hits $20 ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2017-10-27; known on 2018-05-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-05-16.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
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No human genome will be completely sequenced in the next 5 years. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aoeu on 2017-10-23; known on 2022-10-24.
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The new Amazon HQ will be hosted in the Austin-Round Rock, TX metro area ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-10-22; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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Synaptitude will make it into YC S15 batch. Our application: http://synaptitude.me/blog/our-ycombinator-s15-application/ On average a 3% acceptance rate. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-03-26; known on 2015-04-27; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-04-27.
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Sam Altman: Stripe, Zenefits, Instacart, Mixpanel, Teespring, Optimizely, Coinbase, Docker, and Weebly to be collectively worth at least $27b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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Sam Altman: Current YC Winter 2015 batch worth at least $3b by Jan 1, 2020 ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-03-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by qznc on 2020-01-03.
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My Kickstarter will fail without reaching 50% (https://www.kickstarter.com/projects/synaptitude/thinksuite-brainware-not-software) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2015-02-26; known on 2015-03-25; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-25.
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My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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I am accepted to Y Combinator with my idea for an EEG framework: http://synaptitude.me/, Winter 2015 ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-10-05; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-11-01.
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In one month, my score will be higher than the site average. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-07-07.
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I will have 35 subscribers to my mailing list by August 1, 2014. Current count is 21, on June 28. Website: http://austingwalters.com ( 80% confidence )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-28; known on 2014-08-02; judged right by lettergram on 2014-10-05.
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Created by lettergram on 2014-06-27; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.
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My website austingwalters.com will have 18 email subscribers by July 15 (currently at 10) ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-06-19; known on 2014-07-15; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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My funding campaign for a website in Irish will do horribly. ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-31; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Russia annexes Crimea this year. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-03-03; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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I complete the Irish translation of HabitRPG within 2 weeks. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-07.
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Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.
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Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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I will have a girlfriend at some point in the next 365 days. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2015-02-06; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-02-06.
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Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
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Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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I will have 2000 Anki cards within 6 months in my collections (it's only 12 a day) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-07-19; judged wrong by atroche on 2014-08-23.
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The Broncos will win the Super Bowl. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-03; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-03.
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Inflation rate of the dollar is 4.2% or higher for 2014. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-15; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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I will level up on habitrpg this week ( 93% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Duyut on 2014-01-19; known on 2014-01-26; judged right by Duyut on 2014-01-27.
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There will be no snow this March in Champaign ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by flyingfox on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-03-02.
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Price per barrel of oil hits $110 by the end of summer. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-10-05.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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LiteCoin's double in value (to $50) in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-06; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-02-07.
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BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.
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I'll receive strait A's next semester. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.