Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.
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A PC standalone, F2P version of AutoChess will launch (defined as open to everyone, even if it's early access or beta) within 2019. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-07-01.
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'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2019-06-30.
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There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.
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Mammophant embryo created successfully ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-20; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.
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Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2019 to exceed 110 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-06-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-24.
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Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Windows will exceed 75%. ( 74% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.
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Gold hit above $1400/oz at least once in 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-23.
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“Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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I won't deal with main project for over 2 hours tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-20.
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Fed not cut rate at June FOMC meeting ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-06-19; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-20.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2019-06-14.
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HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.
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Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.
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[Commodities] The next edition of BP's “Statistical Review of World Energy” to report a HIGHER global R/P ratio for oil than the present 50.2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.