Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 50% | 72% | 64% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 14 | 29 | 50 | 61 | 7 | 173 |
Displaying all predictions made by playablecharacter. Filter by:
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Given that Avi gets into UW, he is admitted into the CSE major by 2021 ( 15% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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swinging, swinging ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-03-21; judged right by playablecharacter on 2020-03-21.
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I have sex at least once in the next 3 months ( 50% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-04-06.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Issa will get a PhD ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-12; known on 2035-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
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Israeli troops on the ground in foreign country (not Gaza or West Bank) by end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-02-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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The US Govt acknowledges that the 2017 July 4 North Korea missile test was of an ICBM ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-04; known on 2018-07-04; judged right by kuudes on 2017-07-04.
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Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
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I will get over 1 million WP pageviews for WP articles created in 2017, for 2017 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I will identify as a non-atheist to someone within my lifetime, starting now ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 3001-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I convince Issa that the East™ is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I'll have gotten intimate with an MIT girl/boy (must include physical) ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will be living in Boston area as of March 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-07-09.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-05-21; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-20.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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UK – Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Syria – Further Western strikes occur on Syrian Arab Army targets before the end of May 2017. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Syria – A chemical weapon attack involving a nerve agent occurs between 8th April 2017 and the end of 2017, committed by any party. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Certain friend will kill themselves this century ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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2017 Mar 23 The AHCA act will not pass congress today ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-28; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-24.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/User:Ethanbas will be indefinitely blocked from editing Wikipedia by the end of March ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01.
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ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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There will be a Wikipedia page about Vipul Naik's paid editing of Wikipedia, as of April 1, 2018. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-12; known on 2018-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-04-02.
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Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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I will have a gf at some point ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will have a girlfriend at some point in 2017 or later, in the 21st century. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2101-01-01.
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Issa will get another girlfriend in this century ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2020-09-09.
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I will post more on Facebook in 2017 than I did in 2016 (as judged by myself). ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-11; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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The COIN thread on Vipul Naik's paid editing enterprise will continue to receive at least three comments a day as of March 15, 2017. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-03-16; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-16.
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Vipul Naik will be banned from editing Wikipedia as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_Facebook as of March 31, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Issa Rice on 2017-04-02.
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There will be a standalone Wikipedia page about GiveWell https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GiveWell as of March 31, 2017. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-09; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02.
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WCCP gets absolutely fucked (damaged so much that it must be abandoned) ( 39% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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Vipul Naik's Wikipedia Content Creation Project gets any amount outside funding within the next 10 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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I visit Bay Area this year ( 80% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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User “******” visits Bay Area this year. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-08-23.
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User “QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN” visits Bay Area this year ( 35% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I envision some vision ( 30% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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petes will be satisfied ( 88% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-01.
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Certain friend will get themselves killed before graduation (given that they graduate). Not necessarily suicide. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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I will kill myself before graduation ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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will happen ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raghunie on 2017-03-03; known on 2017-03-04; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05.
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Wikipedia Views (wikipediaviews.org) will survive in a form very similar to its present form as of January 1, 2018. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Facebook market cap will not drop below $200 billion at any time in 2017. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-02.
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Transcripts or recordings of conversations between Trump campaign staffers & Russian citizens are published (or linked to) in the New York Times by July 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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>2,000 American troops deployed in Syria in 2017 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-09; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-02.
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Trump announces somewhere that he eventually won the “Muslim ban” court fight ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-02-05; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-06-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
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User “npcuck” will go to Sakura-Con ( 6% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-31; known on 2017-04-17; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-04-17.
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A bad thing happens, and President Trump and the intelligence community publicly disagree about whether it was caused by terrorists. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders dual nationals with citizenship both of a nationality barred from entering and of a non-barred nationality to be permitted to enter by end of 2017-02-05. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-06.
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Politics – President Trump or their representative in some manner orders Green Card holders with a nationality currently barred from entry to be permitted to enter the United States by end of 2017-02-05. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-02-11.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2017-02-06.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will launch at least one significant war resulting in hundreds of thousands of deaths before US midterm elections. (deaths can include post midterms; we'll just have to judge if any small wars seem likely to go over threshold) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2019-01-01.
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EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-12-31.
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I was wrong ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-01-21.
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Newport High School will have an active shooter situation by January 1st, 2021 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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Ethan will leave Def hacks() before it is over ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-01-15.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US lifts at least half of existing sanctions on Russia in 2017 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19.
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US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Dow Jones will not fall > 10% in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Oil will end 2017 higher than $50 a barrel (Brent Crude) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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The UK triggers Article 50 in 2017 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.