Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 33% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 10 |
Displaying all predictions made by bomeor. Filter by:
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged right by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats to gain control of US Senate in 2018 elections ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-14; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 26 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 33 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.