Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 66% | 75% | 84% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 43 | 70 | 113 | 95 | 143 | 2 | 466 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Dickens. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.
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We kill Magtheridon today ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-24; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-08-25.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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Toby Ord comments on my post to clarify what he actually believes ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-10-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2020-10-03.
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Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Trap ( 2% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] soO ( 3% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Classic ( 4% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Dark ( 6% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Rogue ( 8% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Reynor ( 12% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Maru ( 18% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[Winner of WCS Global Finals is] Serral ( 47% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-31; known on 2019-11-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-11-02.
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[SC2] Reynor makes it out of Group C ( 62% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] herO makes it out of Group C ( 52% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] HeRoMaRinE makes it out of Group C ( 28% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Classic makes it out of Group C ( 58% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Serral makes it out of Group B ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Stats makes it out of Group B ( 40% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] TIME makes it out of Group B ( 5% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Maru makes it out of Group B ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] SpeCial makes it out of Group A ( 34% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] soO makes it out of Group A ( 44% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] ShoWTimE makes it out of Group A ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Dark makes it out of Group A ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-26.
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[SC2] Dark makes it out of group A. ( 92% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-10-16; known on 2019-11-01.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-11-22.
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Blind Guardian comes out with an album in 2019 and another in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-02-19; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Half-Life 3 will be released in the next 5 years ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2023-12-31.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-01.
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Econ – The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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The US yield curve will invert in 2018, i.e., the 10y yield will fall below the 1y yield. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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The listicle I just saw on Facebook “7 Complete Wastes of Money that Most People Don't Even Consider” will all be things that either (1) I've considered, (2) don't apply to me, or (3) save trivial amounts of money. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28; known on 2018-03-29; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2018-03-28.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By end of year Ripple will be LOL-ing above 1 trillion market cap.” https://twitter.com/JohnyQi/status/956083850928640000 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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BTC price lower on Dec 11 00:00 than on Dec 9 00:00 PST. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-09; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-12.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.
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Cmydd gsvv gbsdo k lvyqzycd drkd bopoboxmoc wkdobskv lbyeqrd ez sx wi zycd lopybo dro oxn yp dro iokb ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-11-06; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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James Cameron is accused of sexual harassment/assault by at least one woman. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-01; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2019-11-08.
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Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
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Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-26.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-10-04; known on 2019-10-04.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament winner is Team Reborn ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-06.
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Paragon Exhibition Tournament Finals is Reborn vs Oxygen ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-04; known on 2017-08-06; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-08-05.
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GoT: Glevba naq Wnvzr ner erirnyrq gb unir orra pbafcvevat gbtrgure. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-07-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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Alphabet/Google buys Microsoft ( 7% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-27; known on 2024-12-31.
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GoT : Fnzjryy Gneyl xvyyrq va frnfba 7 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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I will get married before 30 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2030-09-09.
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I am diagnosed with Parkinson's disease ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-13; known on 2030-12-31.
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Open Phil makes a grant to support clean meat within 5 years. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11; known on 2022-07-11.
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EA, Animal Welfare – Animal Charity Evaluators recommends Direct Action Everywhere by the end of 2017. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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I will get a 5 on the APUSH exam. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-07-13; judged right by thebaelfire on 2018-05-10.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.
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Tech – Juicero brings out a new bag design which is clearly harder to hand-squeeze by the end of 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Vipul will get married before he dies ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-11; known on 3001-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to Counter-protest ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2021-01-03.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2024-10-16.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than forty percent ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No serious impeachment proceedings are active against Trump at the end of 2017 ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.