Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 57% | 66% | 75% | 87% | 95% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 29 | 24 | 23 | 84 | 44 | 225 |
Displaying all predictions made by kuudes. Filter by:
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More people will get born in Russia in year 2040 than in Russia in year 2037 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2021-10-27; known on 2045-01-01.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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In Finland before 2021-01-01 someone is vaccinated against COVID-19 with non-experimental vaccine approved for use in Finland ( 80% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2020-12-29.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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More than 1000 Corona deaths in the Netherlands in March ( 36% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-03-20; known on 2020-04-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-03-31.
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At least 1 SpaceX Falcon 9 mission in 2018 is a failure with payload damage or loss. ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches successfully ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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Last chapter of Unsong will be numbered 72 ( 94% confidence )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-22; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble “But for another gives its ease”. ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-08.
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President of France 2017 elections: Someone that is not Macron, Fillon, Le Pen or Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Melenchon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Le Pen makes to second round or wins on first round ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Fillon makes to second round or wins on first round ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-24.
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President of France 2017 elections: Macron makes to second round or wins on first round ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-25; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-04-24.
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More than 40% of SSC17 answerees self-identify in the top 30% right end of the scale ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-03-17.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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Civil war in any country of G7+EU: at least 2 such events in 2 states/NUTS-1 regions each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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Civil war in USA: at least 2 such events in 2 US states each having organized event of >= 10000 armed persons who are not legal government and who kill >= 100 armed persons in each event. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-11-27; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-04-01.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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No human will win at Go again against a top AI ( 90% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2016-03-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-13.
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Spain will default on its debt by 2022. ( 39% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25.
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Obama will successfully appoint Scalia's appointment. ( 43% confidence; 33 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Jim Webb to be the next elected President of the US. ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Unsongbook will have at least 50 but not more than 500 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Unsongbook will have at least 100 but not more than 200 chapters and interludes when it is finished or has been abandoned for at least 1 year. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-24; known on 2026-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-05-18.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Iceland ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Denmark ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Finland ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-16.
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The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has only 1 party. (considering local variants of the same party or similar as same party) ( 27% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.
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The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PSOE will gain most seats. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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Global thermonuclear war, worldwide by Jan 1, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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The IMF will vote in favor of adding the Yuan to the Special Drawing Rights basket on Nov 30th, 2015 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-11-27; known on 2015-11-30; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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At least 1 person will be arrested in Belgium before the end of the prediction for charges that include something related to terrorism. ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-22; known on 2015-11-29; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-23.
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There are ground troops from one or more then EU member states that are at least 1000 persons strong on ground of what is currently Syria at least once before the end of prediction. ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-16; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-01.
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@katyperry will have the most Twitter followers at the end of 2015 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Finnish PM Sipilä will not propose the President of Republic to dissolve the current Sipilä Government in Fri 2015-11-06 Helsinki time. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-11-06; known on 2015-11-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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Maldives will not have the same president or vice president at the end of 3/2016 as it has now (Yameen, Adeep). ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-10-06; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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The Liberal party will win the Canning by-election. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-19.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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Greece will have a Guaranteed Minimum Income or other type of basic income before end of 06/2017 for more than 90% of its working age population. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-08-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-02.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.
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Greek Central Government or some Greek Institutions will agree to move at least 24 000 million euro worth of assets to a judicial person outside Greek jurisdiction. The initial agreement happens within the deadline of this prediction. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-03.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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The greek banks will not open unrestricted on monday 2015-07-13 ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2015-07-13; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-13.
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ECB to withdraw Greek ELA before the end of the week. Withdraw means complete end to ELA. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-06; known on 2015-07-11; judged wrong by modulus on 2015-07-11.
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Mitt Romney will decide to run for President in 2016 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SalTnutZ1 on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Greece referendum of 2015-07-05 votes more Yes than No. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Greece will vote “no” on the Sunday referendum ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-07-06; judged right by modulus on 2015-07-05.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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US CO2 emissions per capita increase from 2013 to 2014 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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DAX above 10000 until mid of July 2015 ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-06-16; known on 2015-07-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-07-15.