Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 47% | 60% | 57% | 100% | 75% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 15 | 5 | 7 | 14 | 4 | 46 |
Displaying all predictions made by platypus42. Filter by:
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
-
Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
-
[Politics, India] Actor Kamalhassan wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-16; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-07-27.
-
[Politics, India] Actor Rajinikanth wins election-deciding number of seats in TamilNadu 2021 elections ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
-
I do at least 3 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 85% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
I do at least 8 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 25% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
I do at least 5 more days of Advent of Code (out of 10 remaining) ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-15; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-12-27.
-
A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
-
GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
-
The queen of England will be killed by muslims(aka terrorists). ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01; known on 2021-02-01; judged unknown by sty.silver on 2022-07-19.
-
I do Advent of Code up to Day 15 (with max 1 day missed out on) ( 65% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-12-06; known on 2020-12-16; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-12-15.
-
I finish at least one edX/Coursera course (starting now) within the end of this year ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-11-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2021-01-06.
-
A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
-
Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
-
Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-14; known on 2020-09-01.
-
I find that pumpkin seeds do actually make a difference to my sleep quality, that the initial experience wasn't just placebo ( 60% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-15; known on 2020-10-15; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-11-17.
-
firefox will add back built-in support for RSS feeds by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-14; known on 2025-01-01.
-
In 31 days from now, I'll have earned at least 100 USD from “beermoney” services ( 45% confidence )
Created by platypus42 on 2020-08-14; known on 2020-09-14; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-09-14.
-
India and China's border dispute escalates to a battle fought more than 100 km from the border ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-08-03; judged wrong by sam_jaques on 2021-08-03.
-
At least one G20 nation (or sub-national territory of population > 1m) will re-impose at least one COVID-19 restriction after its relaxation in calendar 2020 ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sashoir on 2020-03-31; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
-
There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.
-
I will have a source of sustainable passive income (minimum $400 per month, requiring < 2hrs per day from me) by the end of this year, so that I can go ahead and pursue my life's dreams full time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-04-04; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2015-01-01.
-
Before the end of 2014, at least ten more schools will adopt Meditation programs following the four at San Fransisco (http://tinyurl.com/sanmed) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by platypus42 on 2014-02-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by platypus42 on 2020-08-09.
-
Google Helpouts is shut down within the next 5 years. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-01; known on 2019-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-02-13.
-
There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.