Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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EA – The most cost effective charity on GiveWell's cost effectiveness spreadsheet is a Vitamin A supplementation charity at the end of 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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Russia stops delivering gas to Germany before deadline ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.
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Russia is disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-02.
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World – Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2022? ( 30% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.
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World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Fiction, Glowfic – Albe from “A dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court” is really Queen Abrogail in disguise. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-26.
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Tech – There is strongly implicating evidence that someone did something causing the loss of >=1 QALY of life in order to profit on Manifold Markets by deadline ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-03.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing buying and selling in markets by the 1st of July 2022 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged unknown by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.
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Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-11.
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Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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EA – EAGxBoston 2022 takes place the first weekend of April 2022 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-05.
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Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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COVID, UK – Queen Elizabeth II is publicly confirmed to have COVID before 2022-02-20 05:00 UTC ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-20.
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World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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COVID – There is a new dominant strain of COVID replacing Omicron by end of 2022, and it is derived from Omicron. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Russia successfully invades Ukraine and China invades Taiwan by the end of 2022. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, UK – Boris Johnson resigns before March 2022 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.
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EA – 80k jobs board bot is finished by Mar 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Personal – I scan all documents in my intray to be scanned by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear my task list for the day by deadline. ( 78% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-09-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-09-13.
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Personal – Successfully make it home without getting stranded by 03:00AM 2021-08-25 after being in London during 2021-08-24. ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-22; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-25.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-22. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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World – Will there be a US-Russia war by 2050? ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish due flashcards for the day by deadline. ( 91% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-08-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-15.
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Afghanistan – Taliban capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2026-09-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki log by deadline. ( 74% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2021-08-13; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I clear Anki backlog by deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-10; known on 2021-08-11; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-12.
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Personal – I get around to cleaning the oven by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-06; known on 2021-08-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-07.
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Personal – I finish Coursera intro by deadline. ( 95% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-04; known on 2021-08-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-04.
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COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-28; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Personal – I prepare and send text by deadline. ( 72% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-27; known on 2021-07-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-28.
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COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Personal – T follows up with me after Wednesday and before deadline, positively. ( 68% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Personal – C gets back to me about [redacted] by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2021-07-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-19.
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X-Risk, Nuclear – Will there be at least one fatality from an offensive nuclear detonation in North Korea by 2050, conditioonal on there being an offensive detonation anywhere? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Kang the conqueror is in charge of the TVA. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-07-09; known on 2021-07-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-16.
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Personal – I get an email back from T by deadline. ( 52% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-27; known on 2021-07-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-30.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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Personal – I have a deployed service for HWToday that I am using for something by deadline. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-28.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish an hour of interview soft question practice by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-20; known on 2021-06-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-21.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least five soft skill flashcards by deadline. ( 93% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-06-17; known on 2021-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-18.
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COVID, UK – national reopening will happen on 21 June but there will be significant local restrictions ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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COVID, UK – Full reopening is done as planned (with no local restrictions) on 21 June ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-06-10; known on 2022-06-22; judged wrong by andybrice on 2021-06-24.
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Personal – The shirts I have ordered fit sufficiently well that I don't purchase others to replace them. ( 67% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
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COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
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Politics, Israel – Lapid forms coalition government by deadline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-06-03; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-02.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Personal – I have successfully replaced my suit by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-07; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
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Politics, US – Andrew Cuomo Still NY Governor through 2021-06-30 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are four vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are still only three vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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US – Military UAP report per IAA due 1st of June states aliens OR states “secretive organisations” are an unlikely explanation for unidentified aerial phenomena. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-11.
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COVID, US – US Federal government allocates enough vaccine doses to cover every US adult, OR announces it has received enough and credible reporting supports this, by deadline. ( 16% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-06-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for chapter 11 of CtCI by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-13; known on 2021-05-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-16.
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Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 18th of May 2021. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-19.
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COVID, UK – Indoor social meetings of 6 people in England allowed on or before the 10th of May 2021. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.
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Personal – I try to develop a “potential breakthrough” as my choiceworthiness model of today puts it before 2050. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I do at least an hour's work for G by deadline. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-16; known on 2021-04-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-18.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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Personal, Productivity – I read up to page 650 of GEB by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-03.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.
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Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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COVID, US – The CDC lists five or more variants under concern as monitored as of the 4th of April 2021. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-07.