Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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[Fighting] At least one more change to the UFC Fight Night 143 fight card to be announced (i.e., other than Mario Bautista, Karl Roberson, and Dwight Grant replacing John Lineker, Ion Cutelaba, and Randy Brown) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-15.
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[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-01.
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North Korea to test a nuclear weapon in 2019 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Eesti 200 to win at least one seat in the Estonian election. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[Fighting] Daniel Cormier to fight Jon Jones in 2019 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-27; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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[Personal] I will see the opera on Saturday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-03-04; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $60 and $70/barrel ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-23.
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[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Books] I will finish reading “Restless Empire” by January EOM. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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I will move to another city by the end of 2019. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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I will leave the country at least once before March 1. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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I will finish “Stories of the Sahara” in January. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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Askren to beat Lawler at UFC 233 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-27.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Brent crude to remain above WTI throughout 1Q19 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-04-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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The US 10y-1y yield curve will invert in 2019. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Pessoa to beat Santos at Nemesis FC 1 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03.
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Mauricio Macri is re-elected President of Argentina ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Reddit to be blocked in China by August EOM ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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I will have visited every city in this province by 2018 EOY. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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OPEC will vote to increase oil production on June 22. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-06-23; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-23.
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HK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Results about my two unjudged wagers to remain unannounced in through June EOM. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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No new US tariffs on Chinese goods to go into effect on July 6. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2018-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-10.
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Jingnan Xiong to beat Laura Balin at ONE on May 26. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27.
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Popov to beat Gromov at ZFP 3 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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Tsarukyan to beat Pfister at KLF/MFP 220 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.
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RVA to beat Gutierrez at JFL 19 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Dias to beat Machado at Shooto Brasil 84 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.
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Benkaci to beat Orlov at Octogone 2 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Seiji Akao to beat Myung Gu Kim at Geat 42 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Wenbo Liu to beat Marcelo Tenorio at Rebel FC 8 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-31; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Ngeleka to beat Ciumac at UMC 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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Janssen to beat Zeitner at WLMMA 40 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Andre Harrison to beat Jumabieke Tuerxun at PFL 1 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-08.
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Krantz to beat Holdorf at LFA 42 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-09.
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Milson Castro to beat Daniel Ucan Avila at Mayan Fight Night ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by Cato on 2018-09-04.
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Kristofic to beat Raska at Oktagon 6 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-27; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-29.
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ITA will be up MoM at end of May. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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ITA will be up EOM. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-25; known on 2019-06-01.
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“Avengers: Infinity War” will make at least $2b worldwide in box office revenue by the end of June. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by avi on 2018-06-17.
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KOSPI will be down EOM. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-25; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-06.
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Germany to beat Mexico June 17 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-06-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-06-17.
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Iran to win the World Cup ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Germany to win the World Cup ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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Iran to formally exit JCPOA in 2018 H1 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-20; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-07-16.
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The climate will be ENSO-neutral in 2018 Q3, according to the US NOAA. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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“Game of Thrones” S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-22.
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Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Brent to remain above WTI throughout 2018 (end-of-day settlement). ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Lee to beat Yamaguchi at ONE on May 18 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by Cato on 2018-05-19.
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Whittaker beats Romero at UFC 225 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-17; known on 2018-06-09; judged right by Cato on 2018-06-10.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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Donald Trump will renew the Iran deal on May 12. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2018-05-13; judged wrong by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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If Saudi Aramco has a 2018 foreign IPO, the company's implied valuation will be less than $2 trillion. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Saudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Cocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.