Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
-
Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
-
“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.
-
“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.
-
“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.
-
The USA government foreign policy will concentrate on attacking little countries like Grenada that are nearby rather than on big distant ones like Iraq after August 2010 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gavinl on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-08-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-08-16.
-
“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.
-
“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
-
“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.
-
“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
-
Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.
-
“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
-
“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
-
“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
-
By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
-
“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.
-
“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
-
“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.
-
“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
-
“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called “Hello, world!”, will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-06-08.
-
“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
-
“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
-
“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
-
“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.
-
China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.
-
“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Turkey will join the European Union and become a model for a Democratic Islamic State and lead the way for advancing relations between the Islamic world and “Western World”” ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2035-01-01.
-
“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.
-
“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Within a decade Wal-Mart (WMT) shares cease to be listed on the NYSE as a result bankruptcy, being taken over/private, or being delisted by the exchange.” ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-12-31.
-
“Hydrocarbon fuels will be the “fuel of choice” for personal transportation for the next 50 years” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2056-12-31.
-
“By year 2036, there will be at least 1 man alive in the U.S. who has fathered 150 children.” ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2036-01-01.
-
“An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-01-14.
-
“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
-
“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.
-
“In other words, I predict that the actual warming of the lower troposphere from 1990 to 2100, as measured by satellites, will be less than 1.94 degrees Celsius.” ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.
-
“I predict that my projections for methane atmospheric concentrations, industrial carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and atmospheric concentrations, and resultant lower tropospheric temperatures will be more accurate than those found in the Intergovernmental ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2101-12-31.
-
“The world per-capita GDP in the year 2000 was approximately $7,200. The world per-capita GDP (in year 2000 dollars) will exceed $13,000 in the year 2020, $31,000 in 2040, $130,000 in 2060, $1,000,000 in 2080, and $10,000,000 in 2100.” ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“The concept of time as a linear dimension will be replaced by one of time as a polarity between content and context.” ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“That by 2020 it will be possible and desirable for urban houses to have a room in the house designed for, and dedicated to, producing a household's entire water supply. This will be achievable through condensation (a terarium effect) and using solar pane ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“US accounting and banking regulations will not require that loan portfolios held in the “banking book” be marked to market before 2024.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2024-12-31.
-
“By the year 2020 the technology will exist that will allow for the “faxing” (teleportation- sending/receiving) of actual inanimate objects, such as text books, clothing, jewelery and the like.” ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
-
“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.
-
“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.
-
“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.
-
“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.
-
“By 2100 racism will no longer be a significant phenomenon in most countries of the world.” ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“Within 100 years the citizens and companies of a large and prosperous country in excess of 100 million people will no longer pay taxes of any kind.” ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.
-
“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
-
In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
-
“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
-
“By 2070, at least six countries will have officially implemented a 4-day working week.” ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2070-01-01.
-
“By 2050, at least two pan-regional currencies, modeled on the Euro, will be used in the world.” ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
-
“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.
-
“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2100 a world government will be in place and in control of: business law, environmental law, and weapons of mass destruction.” ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“By 2050 no synthetic computer nor machine intelligence will have become truly self-aware (ie. will become conscious).” ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“The Bet: By 2050, we will receive intelligent signals from outside our solar system.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2020, bioterror or bioerror will lead to one million casualties in a single event.” ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.
-
“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
-
“By the end of the year 2020, a professional sports team that is part of either the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, Major League Baseball, the National Hockey League, or Major League Soccer will integrate and have a woman as ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.