Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-12-17.
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I go to grad school next year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-03-16; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.
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My bachelor thesis will be done in time – even if they make some accomodations for me ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-15; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.
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World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-16.
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Jens and I will call tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-11; known on 2021-12-13; judged right by Andref2015 on 2021-12-14.
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20:25 points will separate the top 2 drivers in the formula one championship ( 80% confidence )
Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-12; judged wrong by larrison23 on 2021-12-12.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] Other ( 1% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+CDU/CSU ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+Greens+FDP ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2021-12-06.
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Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-12-03.
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I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2021-12-01 ( 10% confidence )
Created by blin on 2021-11-07; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by blin on 2021-12-02.
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USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-11-30; judged right by Liface on 2021-11-30.
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Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-12-21; judged right by Liface on 2021-11-30.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Created by SamBuckman on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by SamBuckman on 2021-11-23.
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AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-11-22.
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[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have the highest score stdev ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Universal Hologram” will have a score stdev > 2 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] A game I have voted on will win ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Grandma Bethlinda's Remarkable Egg” will win ( 5% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “Fine Felines” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “The Golden Heist” will win ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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[IFComp 2021] “And Then You Come to a House Not Unlike the Previous One” will win ( 25% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged right by Leo on 2021-11-21.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 4 (attempted first degree intentional homicide of Gaige P. Grosskreutz) ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-09; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
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Kyle Rittenhouse will be acquitted of count 6 (gun possession by minor) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-10; known on 2021-12-15; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-11-19.
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Groupon will shut down, be acquired, or go into receivership before 2021. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-11-18.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.
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[Personal] My average fall asleep hour for 2020 will be 2:00 am or earlier ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sungk2048 on 2021-11-10.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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All my friends will be back at school next semester ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-09-10; judged right by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.
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By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? ( 79% confidence )
Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2021-11-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.
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Dune movie is released in October ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-11-01.
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SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-27; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by finback on 2021-10-29.
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TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.