Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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My 'guide to modern classical music' won't be finished by the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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One week after its release, 'Django Unchained' will hold a score of 80% or above on RottenTomatoes. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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I will visit Oxford UK this year. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal” ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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GSoC 2012: “Accelerating Haskell Application Development” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Scoutess – a build manager for cabal projects” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Korea will keep the record as the first ranking of suicide rate till end of 2011. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-05-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a data loss incident (theft, accidental release, crash etc.) involving more than 100 million personal records before the end of 2012. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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World will not end or be radically transformed in accordance with apocalyptic expectations of any major world religion (as they are understood prior to the events of 2012). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100) ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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A stem cell cure for baldness will be commercially/medically available ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Apple will get a new CEO in 2012” [not Tim Cook] —Cringeley ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO” —Cringely ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Salesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Blue Waters built, fully online, and capable of >1 sustained petaflops by 2013 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Created by gwern on 2012-01-23; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1093 Will at least one Taliban representative be appointed to serve as a minister in the Afghan government before 1 January 2013? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1094 Will Zimbabwe commence a presidential election before 1 January 2013? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1098 Will a foreign or multinational military force fire on, invade, or enter Syria between 6 March 2012 and 31 December 2012? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Silk Road will drop its hedging service by 2013. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1052 Will Aung San Suu Kyi be sworn in or seated as a member of Parliament in Myanmar (Burma) before 1 January 2013? ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“sales of touch screen phones will rise from 200,000 in 2006 to over 21 million in 2012” ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1051 Will Mario Monti resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, or vacate the office of Prime Minister of Italy before 1 January 2013? ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Brain-computer interfaces allowing the paralysed to walk again” ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01.