Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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At least 3 people (not including myself) will be signed up for my “I'm always right” challenge by the end of May ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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I will tech for the choir concert tomorrow night. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-31.
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“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.
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The sun will come out tomorrow. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-05-30.
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I will pass advanced on the algebra sol. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.
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I will get Bastion today. ( 92% confidence )
Created by isaacjw on 2014-05-30; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by isaacjw on 2014-05-30.
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I will play Ranya the song Lonely Press Play within a week from now. ( 70% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-30.
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Less than 33% of seats in the new European Parliament will be taken by parties who are part of officially eurosceptic groups. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-27; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-30.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal. ( 90% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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The Reading Rainbow Kickstarter will reach its goal in 24 hours. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-05-29; judged right by alecbrooks on 2014-05-29.
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I will email my voice lesson info in on time. ( 90% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-28.
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Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.
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Jess will have written goals by end Feb 2014. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.
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The economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full “The Crash Course” by end of 27 May 2014 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-28; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.
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Van Gaal to be next Manchester United manager ( 70% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-04-30; known on 2014-08-15; judged right by dgray on 2014-05-28.
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Scott's next post will be whining about feminist responses to Elliot Rodgers. It will contain an epistemically weak response from some sort of manosphere type “for balance, because I do not trust my readers” but also a reassurance that feminism is the rea ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Oligopsony on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-05-29; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-05-27.
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UKIP wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Labour wins most votes in the UK European Parliament elections ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Lib Dem wipeout in the UK European Parliament elections ( 50% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-25.
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Laura will come over today ( 98% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-05-26; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-25.
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I will finish Night Circus by Saturday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by cobalt on 2014-05-25.
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A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-06-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-25.
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Kass will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, attorney) ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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Spencer will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brains tribe, “the cochran who doesn't suck”) ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-25.
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[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.
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I will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.
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Woo will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, tae kwon do-er) ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Trish will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, pilates instructor) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by mad on 2014-05-24.
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Tony will win Survivor 28: Cagayan (brawn tribe, cop) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by mad on 2014-05-24.
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I will try to get my company to use their own implementation of predictionbook as an internal prediction market and will fail to convince even 25% of employees that this would be a good idea ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ciil on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-05-23; judged right by ciil on 2014-05-23.
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By 2014 scientists will come up with the discovery of the evolution of some animals that look like humans. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-05-09; known on 2014-05-14; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-05-22.
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On May 20, 2014, Brienne will still be free of social anxiety. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-04-20; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-05-21.
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I will put in a reaction today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-05-21; known on 2014-05-22; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-05-21.
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By June 2014, I will decide to stop eating wheat ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-11; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-21.
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I will be able to pack everything for China into one backpack. ( 90% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-04-16; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by from3004 on 2014-05-20.
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BJP will win elections in India ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dgray on 2014-04-09; known on 2014-05-15; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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Narendra Modi will become PM of India in the 2014 elections. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-20; judged right by roshni on 2014-05-20.
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It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.
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It will have taken between 100 and 150 days since the publication of the blog post below for me to have been asked for money by 50 people on the streets of New Haven: http://aarongertler.wordpress.com/2013/12/20/belated-philanthropy/ ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-05-19.
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It will we sunny and much warmer than 20C in Barcelona this weekend ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by influnza on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-05-19; judged wrong by influnza on 2014-05-19.
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The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.
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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.
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one of the bridesmaids/men at my sister's wedding will faint ( 2% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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my sister will trip down the aisle at her wedding ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-06; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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There will be Doritos at the wedding or related meal tonight ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-18; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-05-18.
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Home Depot receipt will be on fridge when we get home. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danne on 2014-05-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by tunesmith on 2014-05-17.
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We will finish the entirety of RENT tonight. ( 80% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-16; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by cobalt on 2014-05-17.