Upcoming Predictions
-
Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
-
By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
-
Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
-
Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.
-
User:Clippy will donate 50k to SIAI and User:Kevin will create 10^20kg of paperclips. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-10; known on 2060-01-01.
-
SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-09; known on 2060-01-01.
-
Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tristan on 2013-08-06; known on 2060-01-01.
-
“By 2060 the total population of humans on earth will be less than it is today.” ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2060-01-01.
-
Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.
-
“Within 50 years it will be the dominant paradigm within particle physics that all leptons and quarks are each composed of three pairs of two opposite types of black hole and that a pair of these black holes, when merged, form the underlying units from wh ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-08; known on 2060-11-07.
-
In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
-
Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-19; known on 2061-01-01.
-
Genetic engineering to produce someone with an IQ over 200 by 2060 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2061-01-01.
-
“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.
-
Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
-
By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
-
Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.
-
By 2060 under assumptions of ETH and that PH does not collapse, and PH != PSPACE != EXP, proven that factoring in Beta_P^GI / poly or that factoring in Beta_P^MSCP. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
-
North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
-
Alcor will perform >=1 cryopreservations in 2060. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
-
The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2061. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
-
Alcor's Patient Trust Fund will be solvent in 2061. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2061-01-01.
-
The average lifespan for people living in current OECD countries in 2060 will be equal to or greater than 100 years. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-08-22; known on 2061-01-01.
-
Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
-
Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
-
Martian “dark sand cascades” are found to be evidence of microbial activity. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2062-01-01.
-
Paul Allen will attempt to “download” or “store” his brain before he dies ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2062-01-01.
-
“2061 Halley's Comet returns – first landing by humans, And the sensational discovery of both dormant and active life forms vindicates Wickramasinghe and Hoyle's century-old hypothesis that life exists through space.” —Arthur C. Clarke ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2062-01-01.
-
Tuvalu will have fewer than 1000 year-round inhabitants by 2062. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-12; known on 2062-01-01.
-
We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
-
Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2062-12-31.
-
“There will be only three significant currencies used in the world by 2063. More than 95 % of the countries in the world will use one of them.” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2063-01-01.
-
Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.
-
The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2063-01-01.
-
Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
-
In 50 years, pedophilia (defined as no age restrictions on consenting partners) will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2063-04-04.
-
Strong evidence of life on Europa in next fifty years. ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-26; known on 2063-04-26.
-
The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2064-01-01.
-
By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
-
There will be no war in 50 years. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2064-08-13.
-
By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.
-
By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
-
Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2065-01-02.
-
Within 50 years lesions or similar cerebral damaging will be discovered for Homo Sapiens as a result of recreational doses of NMDA antagonists. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2065-04-09.
-
Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
-
I am sure that the world will not end in next 50 years. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dr.ace07 on 2015-11-17; known on 2065-11-18; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-17.
-
The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.
-
Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2066-01-01.
-
2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.
-
Ed Boyden will win the Nobel Prize (in any category) ( 44% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2066-01-01.