Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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“A rash of new-age-techno cults sweep an exhausted Russia.” ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-01-01.
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“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'Amazon builds its first bricks-and-mortar superstore.' ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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Christine Lagarde will be the next IMF president. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Saliency on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by Saliency on 2011-07-11.
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'Facebook will be valued above 200B [at some point] within the next 5 years: 80% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-05.
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‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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'Facebook will have an IPO within 1 year: 40% confidence' —Arthur Breitman ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2012-06-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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btc ~$15 in 2 weeks. —cwkoss ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2011-06-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-23.
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'The final collapse of the European Union' ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.
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'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.
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'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by omni on 2021-07-23.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 2°C' ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2041-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 3°C' ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2056-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*' ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2070-01-01.
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Bitcoin >=$100 by July 1 —the-ace ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-04; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-30.
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Bitcoin 'hits $22 before monday' —BrideTrollApprentice ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-03; known on 2011-06-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-06.
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I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.
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Population of Perth will be double current number within 40 years ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-05-31; known on 2051-05-31.
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Söderling will beat Nadal in the French Open quarter final ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.
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Djokovic will win French Open 2011 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-04.
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Robin Söderling will win French Open 2011 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-31; known on 2011-06-05; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-01.
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Computers will die out and Artificial Intelligence will take over by 2030 – http://www.smh.com.au/small-business/blogs/work-in-progress/internet-via-contact-lenses-as-computers-die-out-20110527-1f6t0.html ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-29; known on 2030-12-15.
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The discovery of at least one new Mersenne prime will be announced in 2011 or 2012. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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'Cheques are phased out in the UK' by 2019 ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Alzheimer's disease is fully curable” by 2037 ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2037-01-01.
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'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'The first test launch of the Falcon Heavy' ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
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'10 nanometre chips enter mass production' ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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“14 nanometre chips enter mass production” in 2013. ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'Ultra High Definition Television (4320p) is available in domestic homes ' by 2021 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2021-01-01.
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'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.
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'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Final Gerald F. Ford-class carrier launched by 2040. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2040-01-01.
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Tiger Woods will not win a major tournament in the year 2011 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by travis2010 on 2011-05-25; known on 2011-08-15; judged right by niekjetten on 2011-06-21.
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“Chicago will feel more like Baton Rouge than a Northern metropolis before the end of this century.” ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-23; known on 2099-12-31.
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'. The Dead Sea Scrolls managed to survive by remaining lost for a couple millennia. Now that they've been located and preserved in a museum, they're probably doomed. I give them two centuries – tops.' —Danny Hillis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-22; known on 2195-02-16.
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There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.
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MoR update within a week ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by yurifury on 2011-05-19; known on 2011-05-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-05-26.
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Barcelona will win the champions league final ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-05-18; known on 2011-05-29; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-29.
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World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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“The Dishonest Minority” does not appear in the final title of Bruce Schneier's book with that working title. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-10; known on 2014-05-10; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2012-01-30.
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David will make his Vancouver connection to Kelowna as scheduled ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rgoodlad on 2011-05-10; known on 2011-05-11; judged right by rgoodlad on 2011-05-11.
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Evangelion 3.0: first scene will be flashback to entry plug test/Yui being absorbed into Unit 0.1 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
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Evangelion 3.0 will open with a scene that has “something to do with Asuka's mental journey from Bardy's contamination to waking up on the slab” ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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“…in the Pacific Rim at around the 6 p.m. local time hour, in each time zone, there will be a great earthquake, such as has never been in the history of the Earth.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-05-22; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-22.
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Egypt will stop the export of natural gas to Israel ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wael on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-16; judged wrong by wael on 2011-06-16.
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RBA will raise interest rates by 0.25% in June ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-07.
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There will be a terrorist attack in the USA in the next month. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-06-07; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-06-07.
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Tottenham Hotspur will qualify for the Champions League this season. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-06-27.
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Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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Rebuild of Evangelion 3.0: Asuka will pilot Eva unit-06; it will go to Terminal Dogma and Asuka will beg Shinji to kill her (as opposed to Kaworu) ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Evangelion manga: there will be no Third Impact ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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There will be a terrorist attack on the US within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-06-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.
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Bitcoin: <$1/btc in 6 weeks —cjb ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-06-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-12.
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Bitcoin >$5/btc in a week —jimrandomh ( 20% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.
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Gaddfi will lose one more son in the next 2 months. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
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China will launch 'tiangong' its first space station by the end of 2012 – http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/apr/26/china-space-station-tiangong ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-10-15.
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Australian dollar will strengthen to 112 US cents by the end of September ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-10-01.
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Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-13; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-13.
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Despite the warning of International Rivers Network (IRN), Laos will keep building Xayaburi hydroelectric dam on Mekong River. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-08-24; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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I think that kadaffi will leave for Venuzuela within two months form now (april 15 2011) ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-06-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-17.
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Barcelona will win the copa del ray. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Google will be rebuffed in their attempt to acquire the Nortel patents ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-07-01.
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“Rare pink diamond to fetch £7m at auction” ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-12; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-13.
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MercMob not in operation or has less than 100 open mobs 5 years from now. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-08; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-08.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
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3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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The Irish Central Bank has forecast that the Irish economy will contract by almost 7% this year. It predicts that the downturn in activity is set to continue next year with a further contraction of 3%. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-01.
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Allied forces will need at least 2 more months to overthow Gadhafi's government! ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-02; known on 2011-06-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-06-03.
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“This recession is going to last a lot longer than the one in the 1970s. I don't see any major bull move in commodities in the next several years.” —Bill Gary ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2013-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-31.
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The Chinese economy will exceed the American economy before 2050 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2050-03-31.
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Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-31.
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White people are going to get their form of a Holocaust, Slavery, etc. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by SINCITYxFoXx on 2011-03-30; known on 2050-03-30.
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I will submit all relevant gwern.net links into witcoin.com within 30 minutes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-03-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-03-29.
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Australia will beat Germany by 1:0 tomorrow! ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dumun on 2011-03-29; known on 2011-03-30; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-03-30.
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Olivia will get the promotion to Customer Supervisor position at Qantas. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-07-31.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 March 2011 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-31.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22.
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By the end of 2012 the amount of international students at UTS will become less than 10 percent. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-01-01.
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apple store in Sydney will not sell all the new ibad2 on 25 of march ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Hani on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged right by Hani on 2011-03-31.
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The Messenger probe spacecraft that is meant to circle Mercury will fly away from Mercury and end up circling the Sun. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-03-25; judged wrong by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21.
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Volcano will accur on Baekdu Mountain within 2mounths. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-05-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-22.
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Deus Ex 3's North America release will be pushed back past August 23, 2011 (release for one platform counts as release) ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-18; known on 2011-08-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-23.