Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 66% | 73% | 84% | 81% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 73 | 37 | 50 | 32 | 52 | 11 | 255 |
Displaying all predictions made by Vipul Naik. Filter by:
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag on Wikipedia will be lower for February 2017 than for February 2016. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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A LessWrong post published during 2017 will become a top-10 post by pageviews on LW by 2018-01-01 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.
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“Link posts” will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before July 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will pay more (“payments due”) for contract work in 2017 than he did in 2016 https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for January 2017 than for January 2016. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02; known on 2017-02-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for December 2016 than for December 2015. http://wikipediaviews.org/displayviewsformultiplemonths.php?tag=Countries&months0=201612&months1=201512&language=en&drilldown=desktop ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-16; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-16; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be the most viewed blog post on the Effective Altruism Forum for December 2016 according to Google Analytics. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-31.
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At some point on or before January 1, 2017, http://effective-altruism.com/ea/c8/should_you_donate_to_the_wikimedia_foundation/ will be among the five most viewed blog posts on the Effective Altruism Forum. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-14; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-30.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will exceed 5.3 million on or before January 1, 2017. ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” and Calvin Harris and Rihanna's “This Is What You Came For”will be the only two YouTube videos released in 2016 that have over a billion views. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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As of April 1, 2017, there will be at least 45 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-04.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 10, 2016. ( 91% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-10; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Saturday, December 3, 2016. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2016-12-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be fewer than 50 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-02.
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As of January 1, 2017, there will be at least 40 YouTube videos with over a billion views as measured by YouTube. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-26; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-07.
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GiveWell will publish a blog post announcing its 2016 end-of-year top charity recommendations before Thursday, November 24, 2016 (Thanksgiving Day). ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-24.
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As of January 1, 2017, Fifth Harmony's “Work from Home” will be the only YouTube video released in 2016 that has over a billion views. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30.
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Between 2% and 8% of the ~1500 respondents will answer “More than 50%” to my Google Surveys question “What proportion of the people currently physically present in the United States are foreign-born?” ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-15.
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Amazon Web Services will drop the storage price for S3 standard storage in its US standard (N. Virginia) region between November 13, 2016 and January 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-12-06.
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Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The total of grant amounts for grants announced by the Open Philanthropy Project by March 1, 2017, with the grant date listed as being in 2016, excluding GiveWell-recommended grants, will be over $50 million. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-29.
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Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation “m” type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-02.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Wiz Khalifa and Charlie Puth's “See You Again” will hit 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-08-07.
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Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open either its Milpitas or its Berryessa station within 12 months after opening its Warm Springs/South Fremont station. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2018. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before April 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-04-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-25.
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The Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) will open its station in Warm Springs/South Fremont before January 1, 2017. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-01-01.
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The amount of money Good Ventures will donate in 2016 (at end of year) to GiveWell top charities at GiveWell's recommendation will be between $10 million and $50 million. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by the end of 2016 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-11.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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2016 predictions: At the end of the year AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.