Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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Humanity is not going to go extinct before 2200 because of anthropogenic climate change. ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2200-01-01.
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Hong Kong Dollar will not break peg in 2019 or 2020 ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-08-29; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2030-12-31.
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At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2025-12-31.
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Polar Bears will go extinct in the wild before 2025 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2025-08-16.
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The Amazon rainforest fire triggers an irreversible catastrophic ecological collapse ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2024-08-16.
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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The Amazon Rainforest fire makes at least two tribal languages extinct ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will reduce power consumption by at least 20% from the prior generation ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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AMD 3rd Gen Mobile Processors will be released Q2 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2019-08-11; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-01-13.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2018 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of September 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2019 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-10-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-08.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] July 2019 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of August 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] August 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-09-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-09.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of February 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-11.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of December 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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Collision between Chinese and US naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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Collision between Chinese and Taiwanese naval vessels or military aircraft by 2020-07-31 ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-01; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 20 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 19 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 18 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 17 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 16 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 15 ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 14 ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the September 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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[Politics] At least one Democrat to withdraw/suspend candidacy by August 2019 EOM ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-16.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25; judged wrong by Pablo on 2019-10-29.
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The Democratic Nominee for president at the end of the 2020 Primaries will not support Medicare-for-All (as distinct from 'for all who want it', 'public option', or 'Path to M4A') ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jackzilla on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-17; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] the UK to have held a general election ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to be formally announced ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] a second Brexit referendum to have been held ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Article 50 to have been extended ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “Brexit with a deal” to have happened ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.