Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2020-01-01; 99.8% —David Dalrymple ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-02.
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By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2020, Chromium will go closed-source, or Google/Alphabet/Alphabet subsidiary employees will generally stop contributing code to the open-source Chromium project ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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I will move before 2020 ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2019, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be legalized in at least one more EU member in 2019. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 2 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 3+ ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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South Korea to sign a peace treaty with North Korea in 2019. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Bulgaria has applied to join ERM-II (a prerequisite for adopting the euro) ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Personal: I still actively use Facebook and follow friends ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A Democratic House will impeach President Trump before the 2020 elections ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-11; known on 2020-11-10; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] neutral/meh/don't care/his government didn't last long enough for me to have an opinion ( 25% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal: my opinion of the Bolsonaro government is] mildly negative ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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By the year 2020, the band Paradise Fears will consistently receive over 1 million views on every video they upload. ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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[Personal – my weight in kg is] <85 ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.