Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 47% | 56% | 62% | 81% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 180 | 158 | 278 | 220 | 320 | 36 | 1192 |
Displaying all predictions made by EloiseRosen. Filter by:
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Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
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>20 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
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>13 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-15.
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Humboldt Fog will be super popular (written up as super trendy in a mainstream publication) at some point before 2020 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Benquo on 2015-02-14; known on 2020-12-31.
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The T will be down on Monday for at least part of the day. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14; known on 2015-02-17; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
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J ran script. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-14; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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It will be clear by March 25,2015 that the Minsk ceasefire did not hold ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-27.
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The subway will be closed down for at least part of this weekend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-16; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-14.
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Aston Villa will beat/draw against Stoke ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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P will be there before I arrive. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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V will be there before I arrive. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-02-12; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-12.
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Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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C will send me the files before 6pm today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-11; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-11.
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>10 HBs by the time I wake up tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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By 10am tomorrow I will no longer be locked out of openVPN. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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MIT will be closed Wednesday. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10; known on 2015-02-12; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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MIT will be closed on Tuesday. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09; known on 2015-02-11; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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MIT will be closed on Monday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow, and I will receive a discount as a result. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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Tomorrow night's grocery delivery will be cancelled due to the snow. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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I will have symptoms of Y between Feb 12 and Feb 19. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
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Before 9am Monday there will be an email about someone working from home due to snow. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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I will have all files from C by 11:59pm Monday night. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-10.
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Sam got the atm to work. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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The water will go down again before we leave. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Sam will be home by 10. ( 80% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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Sam will be home by 7. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-02-06; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-05.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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Those women were A's daughters. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04; known on 2015-02-05; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
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Sam will go out tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-04; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
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We will see Marcos again. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Sam will get sunburned this week. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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I will get sunburned this week. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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The missing key card will turn up. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-02-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Ben finished the laundry. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2014-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
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It will work on Sam's computer. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
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Updating software will solve the problem. ( 8% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
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“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The house won't burn down while I'm at work today. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-29.
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Knicks will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-30.
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J will go to work tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
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P will go to work tomorrow. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-28.
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When I wake up tomorrow (in Boston, Mass.) there will be snow on the ground. ( 100% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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My cut shows signs of infection tomorrow. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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U of Maine (Orono) will be closed tomorrow due to snow. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-27.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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We're already parked on the correct side of the street. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-26; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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Jordan will be upset about Sam taking time off. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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We will meet about performance eval sometime this week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
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When I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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J will comment on status. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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I'll work from home on Tues. ( 95% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-28; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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Someone will leave early on Mon for snow-related reasons. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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>10 HBs before I wake up Tuesday morning. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-27.
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B still going to California before Feb 1. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-24.
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Vacation predictions: I will forget to pack something important. ( 35% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: The power will go down at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-03.
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Vacation predictions: Something will get stolen. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: The cat will die while we're gone. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will see at least one band playing Merengue music. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Vacation predictions: I will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will be propositioned by a prostitute at least once. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-06.
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Vacation predictions: We will miss our connecting flight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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Vacation predictions: Sam will get sick from the food or water. ( 10% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08.
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Vacation predictions: I will get sick from the food or water. ( 15% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-08; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-04.
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Vacation predictions: I will get dengue fever. ( 1% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-21; known on 2015-02-25; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-20.
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The sushi I like will be stocked today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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Someone got the sink fixed. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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There will be free avocados today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-01.
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B will contact me without prompting. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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There's another noise complaint before the end of the month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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E hires me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-02.
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I get a response from E, and the response is favorable. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18.
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I get a response from E. ( 65% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-18.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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We'll end up paying extra for going over views limit. ( 5% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-01.
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PJ will contact me for billing info. ( 4% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-20; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16.
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Someone will complain about the tree. ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-16.
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I will see Ben S on Monday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-20; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-20.
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C's contract will be extended past Jan 30. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-30.
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I had the correct spelling. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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I will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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Sam will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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My computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Sam’s computer will require repairs or replacement before Dec 31, 2015. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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During 2015 I will lose my wallet. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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During 2015 I will run at least 1 marathon. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Wumpus will still be alive at the end of 2015. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 I will have a baby. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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We will sell the car before Dec 31, 2015. ( 45% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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In 2015 I will read at least 15 books. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29.
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Sam will still be involved with the morality lab at the end of 2015. ( 75% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will still work for my current company at the end of 2015. ( 85% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year living in a Rationalist house. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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I will end the year still living in the Cambridge area. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.