Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 57% | 60% | 71% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | 7 | 0 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by lithp. Filter by:
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2023-01-02.
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The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-07-01 ( 90% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-06-01 ( 80% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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I will have been vaccinated for COVID-19 (first dose) by 2021-05-01 ( 70% confidence )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-04-02.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.