Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 66% | 75% | 84% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 43 | 70 | 113 | 95 | 143 | 2 | 466 |
Displaying all predictions made by Michael Dickens. Filter by:
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Apple will hit 450 by February 2013. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-02-15; judged right by andrevan on 2013-02-15.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.
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Superman 2 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 227.53) ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-07-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-07-31.
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Ironman 3 will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 322.2m) ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-06-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-03.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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By the end of June 2013 I will have donated at least six thousand US dollars to either Effective Animal Activism (part of 80000 Hours) or some other organization that I believe is most cost effective. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pablo on 2013-07-05.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will be <=3 MLP-related posts on LessWrong in January 2013. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-02-01.
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There'll be a major virus/spyware story in the next 10 years that's primarily focused on theft of commercial information (financial, passwords, blackmail) ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-14; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21.
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I will read every entry in the Summer 2012 Edition of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy within 1 year from now. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-07-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-27.
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AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat cheaper than and as tasty as real meat by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Bitcoins will outperform Gold, Silver by 100X over the next two years” —Roger Ver ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-04; known on 2013-08-04; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-08-31.
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“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.