Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 40% | 67% | 100% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 20 | 2 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by drethelin. Filter by:
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats and win the election in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be (conditional on appearance) competent and conceited ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-17.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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At least one of gwern's R snippets posted to LW before December 5th, 2012 was falsified to test if any LWer actually double-checked his work. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-12-05; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by papermachine on 2013-01-31.
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Assassination Classroom: Kerosensei will be revealed to be ill or dying (target date a year from the start) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-08; known on 2015-11-08; judged right by drethelin on 2016-06-25.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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By the end of 2014, the market for virtual reality headsets will exceed a million units. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Conditional on success in the ISS docking, the first two SpaceX resupply missions will succeed —Sketerpot ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
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iPhone 5 (not “4S”) will launch Sprint-only in the US ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 25 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2037-09-07.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: HPMOR will update at least twice in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Isaac on 2012-03-16.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Grognor will hold a meetup at his university by the end of January 2012, and me & drethelin will donate $10 to charity as agreed in #lesswrong ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.
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“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.