Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Stack Overflow will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/stackoverflow.com ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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Yelp (website) will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/yelp.com ( 43% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before July 1, 2017. ( 64% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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I will kill myself before graduation ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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Transcripts or recordings of conversations between Trump campaign staffers & Russian citizens are published (or linked to) in the New York Times by July 2017. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-16; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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Spaceflight, SpaceX – Falcon Heavy launch attempt made by the end of the second quarter 2017. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Business, UK – Alex Cruz is no longer the chief executive of British Airways by the end of June. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – President Maduro remains in power through the end of June. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, SJ – Everyday Feminism shuts down, or announces the scaling back of creating new articles by at least 50% due to funding constraints, before the end of June 2017 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, UK – A spokesperson for the Government states that it intends to retain freedom of movement with the EU, by the end of June 2017. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Donald Trump administration names china Currency Manipulator ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Tech – AMD Radeon Vega Frontier Edition launches before the end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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I will switch back to Firefox for my primary web browser on my desktop or laptop before 2017-07-01 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, UK – Someone in a firm or government, including local government, resigns on or before the 15th of August in connection to errors made in connection to the Grenfell Tower fire. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-15; known on 2017-08-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-30.
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Politics, UK – Labour amendment to 2017 Queen's Speech relating to the public sector pay cap passes ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-29.
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The Uptake VIP tech event on 28 June will be >=90% male ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-06-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-28.
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I will win the next game of chess I play with N ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-05; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-28.
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Я встречусь на этой неделе с Ниной и Аней #personal #other_people ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-06-26; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-26.
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iPhone SE 32GB will be returned within a week of receipt ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-22; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-26.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches AND lands successfully ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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[Space X June 25 Falcon 9 Iridium Next 11-20] launches successfully ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-27; judged right by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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Debian boots successfully without breaking Ubuntu or Linpus on Hedy (my laptop) ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25; known on 2017-06-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] C ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] B ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] A ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] Below B ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] B ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] F ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] D ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] C ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] B ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] A ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, US – Flynn challenges the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Politics, US – Flynn fulfills the requirements of the subpoena from the Senate Intelligence Committee without challenging it in court before the end of the 19th of June 2017. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-25.
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Начиная с 2017-06-17 по 2017-06-23 20:00 на медузе появится новость, которая скажет, что на кого-то завели уголовное дело по поводу произошедшего на митингах 12 июня ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Слава Матюхин увеличит ТУ САМУЮ статью про додзе хотя бы на 100 байт до 2017-06-23 20:00 по Москве ( 25% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Сборная России выйдет из группы на Кубке Конфедераций ( 40% confidence )
Created by Alaric on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Закон об анонимайзерах примут до 2017-06-23 включительно ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-24; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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курс доллара по ЦБ за 2017-06-23 будет отличаться от курса за 2017-06-16 больше, чем на 50 копеек ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged right by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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По истории gismeteo в какой-нибудь момент между 2017-06-16 и 2017-06-22 (включительно и включительно) в Москве будет 25 градусов или выше ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by Alaric on 2017-06-24.
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Я сделаю питч секции про предсказания на рациональном додзе 2017-06-23 ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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До четверга включительно я узнаю, что получил смску, где меня вызывают в суд насчет митинга ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-23; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-06-24.
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-06-22; judged right by penten on 2017-06-23.
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I will have a new phone in 6 months (current MI3W) ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-22.
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Chalker выложит статью про то, откуда он взял мой пароль, до 2017-07-16 включительно ( 35% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-07-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-06-22.