Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 86% | 64% | 50% | 72% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 22 | 33 | 24 | 18 | 30 | 2 | 129 |
Displaying all predictions made by penten. Filter by:
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2024 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2023-08-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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(regular price) Petri-dish veal cheaper than (regular price) cow-produced veal at at least one large market chain(for example Amazon, WalMart, Superstore, etc) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31.
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The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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Ethereum blockchain will fork because of parity multisig hack that happened today before 2017-08-20 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-20.
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Ethereum's price at 2017-08-19 01:00 UTC+0 will be higher than at 2017-07-19 01:00 UTC+0 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19.
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There will be more than 10 private user groups on PredictionBook by the end of this week (click the “Groups” link people!). ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-26; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Matt on 2017-07-01.
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I have voted for the UK conservative party in a general election ( 55% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-06-23; known on 2030-06-16.
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Minority government in the UK ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-06-22; judged right by penten on 2017-06-23.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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I feel happier an more relaxed on Friday 9th than I did on Wednesday 7th June (slight anxiety) ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-21; known on 2017-05-28; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-28.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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The number of unique commenters on this prediction will be less than 30 OR the number of unique accounts who add wagers will be less than 80. by May 8th 11.30 AM UTC. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sahil on 2017-05-05; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by danielfilan on 2017-05-09.
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10 or fewer political parties win seats in the 2017 UK election ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's “estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher” than it was in 2008 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-09; known on 2028-05-30.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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This year, Predictionbook will switch its scoring to be logarithmic ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Alti Camelus on 2017-03-13; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-24.
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Full test goes ahead as planned tomorrow ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-03-07; known on 2017-03-08; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-08.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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S tooth appears within 10 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-02-24; known on 2017-03-06; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-06.
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Zootopia wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Moana wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Kubo and the Two Strings wins 2017 Oscar for Best Animated Feature ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-21; known on 2017-02-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-27.
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Mammophant embryo created successfully ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-20; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Age-adjusted mortality rate in men from lung cancer in England/Wales <= 400/million (as reported by ONS — 2015: 704, 2001: 963) ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten on 2017-02-15; known on 2027-02-15.
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Emma Stone wins best actress at 2017 Oscars ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged right by penten on 2017-02-27.
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La La Land wins best picture at the 2017 Oscars ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-02-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-02-27.
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The Dow goes above 20k again on Feb 1 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rmeador on 2017-02-01; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by rmeador on 2017-02-01.
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There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Trump is assassinated during his first or second term. ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by equivrel on 2017-01-29; known on 2024-02-01.
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Trump's investigation into illegal voting will report at least 500,000 illegal votes cast in the 2016 election. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-25.
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Twitter shut down. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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US puts another human footprint on the moon ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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FTSE100 over 7,000 on January 1st 2018 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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FTSE 100 over 7,000 on July 1st ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-17; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by penten on 2017-07-03.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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First bipedal robots used in police active patrol duty ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2017-12-31.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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First prediction created June 1st 2017 UTC has an ID (see URL) >= 182180 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by penten on 2017-06-01.
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>= 249 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12450ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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>= 246 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (12300ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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>= 270 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13500ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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>= 267 pages of predictions on the “View Predictions” page (13350ish public predictions, currently 238 pages) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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I am still married to my current partner ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2017-01-11; known on 2024-01-11.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2017 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-11.
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Self driving vehicle (level 4) drives legally on public UK roads before end 2019 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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Benfica will win the Portuguese Football Championship in the 2016/17 season ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jscc on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by jscc on 2017-05-16.
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Z-Cash Market Cap will be above $18m (Value on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Polygamy is legal in the UK (ie. Marriages between more than two people are permitted to take place within the country) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2017-01-03; known on 2037-01-03.
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A meme will exist and be relatively frequent, saying 2017 was even worse than 2016. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 2+ French books in 2017 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will read 3+ Chinese books in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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Read 45 or more books in 2017 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 37+2 weeks of gestation ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-07; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-03-07.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) on or before 39+2 weeks gestation ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-20; judged right by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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My baby will be born (or otherwise out of me) when I am greater than 39 weeks ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-03-25; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-04-11.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 12 months ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-12-21.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 6 months ( 49% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-21.
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I will have a new phone in 24 months (current MI3W) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-12-21; judged right by penten on 2018-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged right by penten on 2017-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 6 months (current MI3W) ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-06-22.
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I will receive a coffee-related gift this Christmas ( 30% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged right by penten on 2016-12-25.
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I will receive beer as a present this Christmas ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will receive an amazon voucher as a present this Christmas ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2016-12-28; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-28.
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I will have given up coffee by 1st Jan 2018 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I will have given up alcohol by 1st Jan 2018 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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I cycled to work at least twice in the last month. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by penten on 2017-05-01.
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S slept for an uninterrupted stretch of more than 4 hours between 9pm and 7am on 4 out of the 5 days previous to the prediction due date. ( 65% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-02-21; judged right by penten on 2017-02-21.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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We will have a second child within 10 years ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-09.
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“White Christmas” (any snowfall on Christmas day qualifies) ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-25.
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Turkey is served at the family Christmas dinner ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2016-12-26; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-26.
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LP feeling generally happier about S than this week ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2016-12-15; judged right by penten on 2016-12-15.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 6 million on or before January 1, 2021. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by gav on 2020-11-10.