Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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there will be a huge explosion again.. ( 50% confidence )
Created by smodnix on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-08-07; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-16.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by NickN on 2020-08-16.
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[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Joe Haden ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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[___ is in the next three in the Ranking The Steelers series] Steven Nelson ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Devin Bush is in the next three for the Ranking The Steelers series ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-08-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Next Ranking The Steelers article posted by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-15.
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Dentist will strongly recommend a procedure after cleaning tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by Radish on 2020-08-14.
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Created by maneesh on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by maneesh on 2020-08-14.
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Response from SendGrid this week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-09; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-14.
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Donald doesn't think I made significant mistakes in general ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as significantly positive ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as moderately positive ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as slightly positive ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as negative ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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[Zvi's article] Sees this week as neutral ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 50-70% chance of winning ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 70-80% chance of winning ( 20% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged right by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 80-90% chance of winning ( 50% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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[On the day their election prediction model is released, FiveThirtyEight will have Biden with a] 90-100% chance of winning ( 25% confidence )
Created by amadeu on 2020-08-12; known on 2020-08-14; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-08-12.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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Donald Trump maintains effective control (including through close family) of his businesses through US midterms. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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A bot will win in a series of Starcraft 2 games against human professional (anyone from Top 100 Leaderboard) using visual API similar to pysc2 https://github.com/deepmind/pysc2 by the end of year 2019 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tsepaka on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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ACA repealed before US midterm elections and 2019 number of people without healthcare insurance > 15m higher than 2016 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Austin Petersen will be the Libertarian Party's nominee for president in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Greenham on 2017-02-24; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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I get a job offer from Reddit ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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I get all of my Anki's correct today except quicksort ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-12.
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Coronavirus cases for Nevada yesterday went up less than 2% ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Paperwork takes less than 15 minutes ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Reddit gives me an interview ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2022-12-05.
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Startups in Depth has over 500 plays ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-08-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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Joe Biden picks Kamala Harris as VP (during campaign) ( 70% confidence )
Created by sam_jaques on 2020-08-05; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by sam_jaques on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates less than 3% of Nevada is infected right now ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.
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https://covid19-projections.com/ estimates <15% of the country has been infected ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-11; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-08-11.