Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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James Webb telescope is launched in 2014 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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By 2014, Iran will have detonated a nuclear bomb. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.
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“Within five years the Israeli economy will have been devastated because many believe there is a high probability that an atomic bomb will someday be used against Israel” —James Miller ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.
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“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.
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“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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“By the year 2050, there will be at least 1 green autotrophic person on the Earth…” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2040, at least 40% of Americans making to age 65 will live to age 100.” ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By the end of 2024 there will be a Single Global Currency managed by a Global Central Bank within a Global Monetary Union.(3-G's) This currency will be legal tender in countries which comprise at least 51% of the world's GDP.” ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2024-12-31.
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“I predict that we will be in a full fledged ice age by 2100. I predict that before that we will see volcanic activity that produces more CO2, irridium, and CH4 than mankind could imagine. We will have massive increases in snowfall and sea level first, fo ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01.
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“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Microsoft will be have the largest market capitalization of any publicly traded company in the world by 2015.” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.
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“One hundred years from now the world's governments will formally and legally recognize the basic human right of mobility: a person may live anywhere on earth if they agree to obey local laws.” ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2103-01-01.
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“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.
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“By 2025 at least 50% of all U.S. citizens residing within the United States will have some form of technology embedded in their bodies for the purpose of tracking and identification.” ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2020 a completely propellantless (no material particles expelled for propulsion) or “field propulsion-type” aerospace vehicle will land on the Moon.” ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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“By 2050 most geologists will agree that most of earth's oil and gas reserves were not produced by decaying plants.” ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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In the year 2150, unless an existential risk intervenes, there will be an incorporated or sovereign entity identifying itself as the USA or its legal heir. ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“Moore's Law, which has defined a doubling of price/performance/value produced by semi-conductors every 12 to 18 months since 1966, will continue to deliver its exponential benefits for at least another five decades, without stopping or slowing.” ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2052-01-01; judged unknown by Traubert on 2010-08-11.
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“By the year 2040, AI will appear on computer viruses that will communicate with each other using a universal Internet language and will be programmed to fuse together and mutate into Computer Organs that will later be controlled by powerful search engine ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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“By the year 2020, the tickets to space travel – at the least to Moon, will be available over the counter.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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“The first true interstellar mission, targeted at the closest star to the Sun or even farther, will be launched before or on December 6, 2025 and will be widely supported by the public.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-12-07.
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“In 2108, an independent, sentient artificial intelligence will exist as a corporation, both providing its services as well as making all financial and strategic decisions.” ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2108-12-31.
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By 2025, there will be no 28th Amendment to the Constitution of the USA ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.
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“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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USA will be out of the Middle East by the end of 2012 ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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Jesus will not come down from the heavens to judge mankind in my life time, my childrens life time, or my grand-childrens life time. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Citizen553 on 2009-11-18; known on 2159-11-18; judged unknown by Jack on 2010-01-26.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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I will still be alive in 2200, meaning that the software that I am — or some modification of it — will still be running then. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2200-01-01.
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Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Some modes of the Large Hadron collider will never be reached and by 2025 the scientific community will debate in a peer reviewed physics journal with >median impact that this is due to the anthropic principle combined with the danger of those modes. ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jennifer on 2009-10-19; known on 2025-01-12.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
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In 2070 there will be a human alive with age 150 or older. ( 26% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2070-12-31.
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In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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Iran's current regime will be collapse within the next ten years. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by kess3r on 2009-10-15; known on 2019-10-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-16.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.