Upcoming Predictions
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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United States institutes price controls on physicians before 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-06-14; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be a magnitude 7+ earthquake in SF bay area between 2020 and 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2022 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.
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Chen Ning Yang will die before Tsung Dao Lee ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Sirocco the kakapo die before 2030? ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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Will Issa Rice become a wizard? ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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A “New Keynesian” economist wins a Nobel Prize by 2030, e.g. Summers, Mankiw, Yellen, Woodford, etc. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s – Alex Lightman ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.
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US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.
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4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.
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At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.
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I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.
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Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.
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Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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I will successfully commit suicide in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2031-11-16.
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Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.
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In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.
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Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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By 2032, it will be generally accepted among neuroscientists that the brain substantially relies on non-quantum substrate-dependent computations. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2022-02-26; known on 2032-01-01.
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Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.