Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 45% | 48% | 70% | 84% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 25 | 2 | 104 |
Displaying all predictions made by arthurb. Filter by:
-
Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
-
I will be engaged to K by the end of summer 2012 ( 80% confidence )
Created by arthurb on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-08-06.
-
I will be able to spend at least one week working in the London GS office in summer 2011 ( 30% confidence )
Created by arthurb on 2011-03-28; known on 2011-09-16.
-
CME's website will confirm that CME rule for electronic trading of ED futures gives indeed priority to official market makers over other users at a given price level. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by arthurb on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-17; judged wrong by arthurb on 2009-10-18.