Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 55% | 65% | 84% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 43 | 14 | 151 |
Displaying all predictions made by Peter Hurford. Filter by:
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RE will still be in the office at 6:30 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.
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Today, I will return from the gym before RK returns from his thing. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20.
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IV will successfully DTHFM before 11:59pm CST today (20 Apr 2015). ( 35% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-20; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2015-04-21.
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30 Jul Block C will take 90min to complete +/-10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.
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30 Jul Block B will take 130min to complete +/- 10min ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-30; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-07-31.
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“Warlords of Khanar” will be the name of the MTG block codenamed “Huey”, “Dewey” and “Louie”, and/or one of the sets of that block. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by LogicalOxymoron on 2014-11-22.
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Peter will eat dinner with his parents tonight. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-09.
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I will live through the end of sophomore year. ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-31; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-30.
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Today, I will successfully 3×5 squat 225lbs. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09; known on 2014-05-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-09.
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MIRI will not win the $250K prize from SVGives ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07; known on 2014-05-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-07.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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“By the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,” -John Schindler ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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Animal Charity Evaluators will publish their analysis on Joey and Xio's leafleting study by the end of March. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
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Denison will paint over all of the current graffiti within three weeks. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-10; known on 2014-03-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-25.
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Anna will order eggs instead of pancakes. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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Twitch Plays Pokemon will make it to Blackthorn City within 24 hours of this prediction. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-08; known on 2014-03-09; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-09.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Twitch Plays Pokémon will win the game (become Pokémon Champion) within 48 hours of this prediction. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by mad on 2014-03-01.
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Mount Holyoke will have a snow day tomorrow ( 10% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.
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Denison will have a snow day tomorrow ( 1% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-06; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-06.
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There will be a snow day at Mount Holyoke tomorrow. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
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There will be a snow day at Denison tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05; known on 2014-02-05; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Hillary Clinton will go unopposed in 2016 Democratic primaries. ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31.
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Both major party presidential candidates will express support for softening punishments for drug offenses during the 2016 US presidential campaign. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Democrats to gain seats in the next House midterm general election. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-16; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-06.
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The majority of people eligible for Obamacare won't be enrolled by April 13, 2014. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by recondaddy on 2013-10-13; known on 2014-04-13; judged right by procran on 2014-05-18.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Wendy Davis elected governor of Texas. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-05.
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The Department of Labor will not make the September 2013 Employment Situation news release by October 12, 2013. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-12; judged right by foo on 2013-10-14.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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The US will have a government shutdown sometime before June 2014. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-09-20; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least one of the Invasion dragons (Crosis, Darigaaz, Dromar, Rith, Treva) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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At least one of the Elder Dragon Legends (Nicol Bolas, Arcades Sabboth, Chromium, Palladia-Mors, Vaevictis Asmadi) will be reprinted in the Commander 2013 decks. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-18; known on 2013-10-15; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-10-18.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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Within two years, there will be some mechanism for direct karma transfer implemented on Less Wrong. (Karma betting, karma bounties, or the like.) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-25; known on 2015-08-24; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-17.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.
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Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following six days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-08-02; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-08-02.
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Joey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.
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Nick will come over for Fun Time at least once within the next seven days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-21.
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Max will be non-vegan for at least two of the following seven days, starting today. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-07-26; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-26.
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Nick will actually move out today (defined as not sleeping for any amount of time greater than twenty minutes at this house within the next ten hours) ( 95% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-17; known on 2013-07-18; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-18.
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I will be finished with this transcription task by 5pm ( 75% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-07-16; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-16.
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In one week, I will own or borrow a bike. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
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Within one week, I will have one month membership to a local gym in the UK. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
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Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-07-23; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-23.
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At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor animal welfare. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor existential risk. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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At the end of the EA Weekend Away Debate, at least one person will change their opinion to favor poverty. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor animal welfare as their top cause. ( 1% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor existential risk as their top cause. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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In the EA Weekend Away Debate, the majority of people will favor poverty as their top cause. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-14; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-14.
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Within the next week there will be one or more riots attributed to the Zimmerman verdict by a mainstream news outlet. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-21; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-21.
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I will pass my Ohio Driver's Licensee Test today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10; known on 2013-07-10; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-10.
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Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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I will graduate from Denison University by May 17, 2014. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-17; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-05-18.
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Christine Quinn will be elected mayor of New York City in the upcoming election (regardless of whether there is a runoff election or not). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-10; known on 2013-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-11-05.
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The information collected by PRISM that's listed as being from Google and Facebook will turn out to have been collected via some means other than a backdoor API/access provided by the companies themselves. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-02.
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I will go to England this summer ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-07-11; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-12.
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Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03; known on 2013-06-03; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-03.
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Opportunity Rover to function until December 15 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-01; known on 2013-12-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-15.
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The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.
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No Magic card printed before 2017 will explicitly copy a planeswalker (copying a permanent is okay). ( 51% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Roxolan on 2017-01-01.
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Rep. Edward Markey (D) defeats Gabriel Gomez® in the Massachusetts Senate special election ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-06-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-26.
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Rhode Island will legalize gay marriage within two weeks ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-03; known on 2013-05-17; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Bitcoin was created by aliens ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will have my driver's license by 1 September, 2013. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-09-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Dzhokhar Tsarnaev not convicted under federal terror charges. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-01.
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Ana Morales is elected President of Denison Campus Governance Association. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26.
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Hung Tran is elected Vice President of Denison Campus Governance Association. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-04-26; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-26.
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4th grade SC science quiz is an actual quiz from an actual school. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-26; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-07-08.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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WSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2013-05-25; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Within three months they will admit to using drones to keep an eye on the suspect who is causing the ruckus in Boston. The suspect that is apparently being hunted for the shooting at MIT I mean. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2013-04-19; known on 2013-07-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2013-07-19.
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Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) defeats Mark Sanford® in the upcoming SC-1 election. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-18; known on 2013-05-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-08.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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H&H will win the DCA PAES. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-04-16; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-17.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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The upcoming Magic: The Gathering set, Dragon's Maze, will contain at least one legendary creature with precisely four colors. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-04-27; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22.
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Within two months of making this prediction, US President Obama will sign into law some form of bipartisan immigration reform. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before May 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by itaibn on 2013-05-01.
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xkcd “Time” will show its last unique frame before 2014 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by itaibn on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by itaibn on 2013-07-29.