Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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BitcoinEXpress attack on Namecoin will be successful in reversing the hashchain at least temporarily ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-13; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-30.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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Steel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.
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Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
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My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-17.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Eliezer will publish ch78 before 7PM PST 13 September 2011 ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-13; judged wrong by fergus on 2011-09-13.
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A copyright takedown notice for The Notenki Memoirs will be sent to me in 2011. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-18; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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OB-NYC: Zvi Mowshowitz asked that question of Salience because he hated Valhalla Rising. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-15; judged right by gwern on 2011-09-08.
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NGE: Neither 3.0 nor 4.0 will be longer than 60 minutes ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Be Replaced” ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will be titled “You Can (Not) Die” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2015 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2014 ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2013 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2014 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2013 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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NGE: 3.0 will be released in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild 3.0 will be released in 2011 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2015 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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GJP: Iran to conduct a successful nuclear test before December 31, 2012 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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“King Abdullah to no longer be head of government in Saudi Arabia before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“Ali Abdullah Saleh to no longer be President of Yemen before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Julia Gillard to no longer be Prime Minister of Australia before midnight ET 30 Sep 2011” (excluding death) —Intrade ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-05; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-30.
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Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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PZ Myers will still identify as an atheist in one year. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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Before December Roland will not make any bet with me over any 9/11 truth related claims and will not give estimates on PB for any of the related statements already added to PB ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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The Richard Dawkins article on Conservapedia will in one year have in its stable form a picture of at least one of Hitler, Stalin, or Lenin ( 81% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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The “Counterexamples to Relativity” page will still exist on Conservapedia in one year ( 92% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-09-04; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-09-04.
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LW User:Morendil will tag >=500 predictions on PB.com using my suggested ad hoc scheme. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-10.
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By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
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Florian Luca and Carl Pomerance's bound on the radical of a perfect number will be improved within 3 years by replacing the 17/26 exponent with some smaller exponent. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-03; known on 2015-09-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-03.
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Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.
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I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
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amigojapan on #lesswrong will translate a paragraph of the Anno Toprunner show for me. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
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Before January 1, 2020, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore’s algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-07.
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Before January 1, 2045, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2045-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Before January 1, 2030, a quantum computer will be used to successfully factor an integer greater than 100 using Shore's algorithm or some similar algorithm. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-31; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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The judge will rule that Julian Assange be extradited to Sweden after hearings in July. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-10-01; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-02.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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The ISS will continue to have crew continuously through the end of November ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-01.
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I will watch one or more of Tokyo Godfathers, Gunslinger Girl, The Cat Returns, or Haibane Renmei before 2014-01-01 and really like one or more ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-18.
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“Bucky Larson: Born to Be a Star” will get an average critic's rating of between 20-30% on rottentomatoes.com ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-09-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-18.
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Madonna's new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Obama will approve the Keystone XL pipeline project. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Øx on 2011-12-05.
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Anderson Cooper will come out on his daytime talk show. ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2011-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-01.
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“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.
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2015-2016: German GDP growth > French and British GDP growth —Michael Pettis ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2012: Chinese GDP growth 8-9% —Michael Pettis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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2013-2014: Chinese GDP growth <8% —Michael Pettis ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.” —Michael Pettis ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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My house will lose water when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.
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My house will lose power when Hurricane Irene hits. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-27; known on 2011-08-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-29.
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Either of my haiku will win the ANN contest (either as top-ranked haiku or as the randomly selected entry) ( 1% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2011-08-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-30.
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My apartment will not lose power during Hurricane Irene. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29.
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There will be no statistically significant increase in neutrino levels detected by detectors attributable to the recent supernova in M101. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-26; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-25.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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I will watch all 26 episodes of Gantz before 2012-01-01 UTC ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Bitcoin stays >= $60 for at least 72 hours, any time before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2015-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-03.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2014-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-31.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-04.
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Between 2013-07-01 to 2013-12-31, I will type and do a majority of my typing on a SafeType or similar vertical keyboard ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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“Any US Supreme Court Justice to announce retirement/resignation before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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A scene release group will release a cracked (or crack for) Deus Ex: Human Revolution (PC) before 2011-08-25 00:00 UTC ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-08-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-25.
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“Same sex marriages to resume in California before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“Intrade.com to be open for business on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Jun 2012” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 Sep 2011” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2011-10-10; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-10.
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“Robert Mugabe to no longer be President of Zimbabwe before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran by 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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“Bashar al-Assad to no longer be President of Syria before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Adderall: day 16 ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 15 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 14 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-23.
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Adderall: day 12 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2011-08-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-08-23.