Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is conspiring with Kaji ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually an autonomous part of Asuka Soryu Langley, with Asuka Shikinami being the other half ( 3% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually a disguised Asuka Soryu Langley ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is actually Asuka Soryu Langley in some sense ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la Re-Take (not a human-angel hybrid) ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character) ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after Rebuild. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after Rebuild. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing Rebuild. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Gendo is Kaworu's genetic father ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA) ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild Asuka is a test-tube baby, similar to the manga backstory ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in 2.0 and reveal it to be a sham a la Norman Spinrad's The Iron Dream ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop) ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka ( 1% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE ( 3% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's 2.0 flashback ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch ( 18% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.