Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 40% | 100% | 57% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 32 |
Displaying all predictions made by trishume. Filter by:
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Consumer-level “Trans cranial magnetic stimulation orgasmatron” (TMS device capable of producing orgasm ) hits the market ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-12-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-27.
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SpaceX will fly a mission with crew around the moon by end of 2018. ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by trishume on 2017-02-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will win California in 2020 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-02-28; known on 2021-02-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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I will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A. ( 5% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-04-16.
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The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.
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I will travel to CHI '17 to present a paper I wrote. ( 45% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-09-16.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.