Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 2 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by mfb. Filter by:
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Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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This prediction is currently judged 'Unknown' or 'Wrong'. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 9999-01-01.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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Brazil will beat Argentina in the 2030 World Cup Final in Beonas Aires. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2030-07-31.
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At least 90% of the developed world (probably more like 98%) will be consuming In-Vitro meat (they'll have a more popular name by then) instead of conventional meat by 2070. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2070-01-01.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known on 2018-12-31.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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If a hyperloop is created, it will be predominately (>50%) solar-powered. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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One of the first really big (>5bn$) hyperloops will go across a body of water ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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When and if a hyperloop-like transit system is built (or not), the US will not be the first country to build it. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2100-01-01.
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The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least 5 other people will make predictions on this prediction before I'm told to judge it August 21. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by High_Fiber_Twigs on 2013-08-13; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by procran on 2013-08-20.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #11 is written by an atheist. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
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In addition to Pluto's 5 known moons, at least 3 additional satellites will be identified following the New Horizons fly-by. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dusk on 2013-07-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will consist of vehicles travelling in a tunnel or enclosed tube ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged right by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
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Elon Musk's Hyperloop will be some variation of a Lofstrom loop ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-16; known on 2013-08-13; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-08-12.
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Elon Musk's hyperloop method of transportation will not be an underground solution. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-07-15; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by zpinter on 2013-08-12.
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More than 1000 known exoplanets by the end 2014 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by mfb on 2013-07-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-10-23.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.
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AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
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“No substantial departure from the standard model of elementary particle physics will be discovered in experiments by the year 2015. `Substantial' departures include supersymmetry, extra dimensions of space-time, techni-color models of Higgs bosons, and c ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.