Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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LeVeon Bell won't be traded ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-31.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] Bolsonaro or someone who espouses his law and order/anti-establishment platform ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A permanent political class shill (Alckmin, Marina Silva, Ciro Gomes, Alvaro Dias, Joao Doria, other crooks) ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Bolsonaro to be elected president of Brazil ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2018-10-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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The cubs will not win the 2018 world series ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mattdraghi on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-28.
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Total marketcap of all cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap(or it's successor) dips below 14B$ USD for longer than a day ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2018-09-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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Nevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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The Philippines still dealing with dawla al islamyya ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 2nd in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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US, Politics – The “Fahrenheit 11/9” movie ranks 1st in its first week in theaters on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2018-09-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Personal, Productivity – I spend a third hour cleaning or finish my cleaning backlog before 2018-10-19 23:00 UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-19; known on 2018-10-19; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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LeVeon Bell will report at the bye week like he says he will, assuming he doesn't get traded ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-21; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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It costs $200 or less to fix my bike ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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It costs $100 or less to fix my bike ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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I get at least a raise of at least 9%. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-19.
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One of my specs is screwed up ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Charge cord doesn't reach ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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GC will be unable to provide legitimate receipts of an amount that exceeds £100k, to prove he has kept his GWWC pledge for at least 10% of his income ( 60% confidence )
Created by bendini on 2018-05-04; known on 2018-10-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-10-17.
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Personal, Productivity – I do my Anki cards for Neuroscience (both due and new cards for the day) before 2018-10-15 4:00 UTC. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-14; known on 2018-10-15; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-15.
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Politics, US – In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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Politics, US – In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
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I do not become a card carrying democrat ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
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Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-10-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11.
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Still no first kiss before my 25th birthday. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-02; known on 2018-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 18 months ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 16 months ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-07-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently (first steps) by age 14 months ( 55% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-05-21; judged right by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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[The Brazilian presidential election will] have a higher proportion of valid votes over registered voters than in 2014 (that was 72.8%) ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-09.
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Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, Brazil – Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Brazilians will elect Geraldo Alckmin as president in 2018 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by brunoarine on 2017-12-12; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A conservative like Ronaldo Caiado or Joao Amoedo ( 5% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[ Brazil's next president will be] A yet unknown outsider (Huck, Joaquim Barbosa, Meirelles, Doctor Rey, or other clown) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Lula ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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[Brazil's next president will be] Ciro Gomes ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lucasmafaldo on 2017-11-25; known on 2018-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.