Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 50% | 57% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 26 | 2 | 44 |
Displaying all predictions made by spqr0a1. Filter by:
-
I was wrong ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-01-21.
-
Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
-
The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
-
Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
-
HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
-
HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
-
HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
-
HP MoR: Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldemort, Santa Claus, and Mr. Hat and Cloak are all the same person. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
-
Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
-
World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
-
Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
-
HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
-
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
-
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will update within the next three months. ( 61% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-13.
-
HP MoR: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
-
Chris Shinski will like J-pop in 2020. ( 65% confidence )
Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2020-06-01.
-
My cable technician will not have all the necessary equipment for installation. ( 35% confidence )
Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by spqr0a1 on 2012-04-01.
-
I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.
-
>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
-
I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.
-
At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
-
A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
-
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
-
Chris Shinski will continue teaching at the Adirondack School until at least the end of academic year 2012-2013. ( 80% confidence )
Created by spqr0a1 on 2012-01-17; known on 2012-06-10.
-
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
-
Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
-
GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.
-
GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate one year from today. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2013-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-01-14.
-
The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
-
Between 2012 and 2092, a new plague will kill 1M<x<1B people —Charles Stross ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
Limb and organ (re)growth medically commercialized —Charles Stross ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
Aging arrested or reversible by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
“There will be 5-10 billion people.” —Charles Stross ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
By 2092, “20-40% of mammalian species, 20-60% of reptiles, 40-80% of amphibia, and maybe 50% or more of insects will be extinct.” —Charles Stross ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
-
“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
Commercial fusion reactor online by 2063 —Charles Stross ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2063-01-01.
-
Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
-
Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
-
USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
-
Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.
-
Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
-
The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
-
Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
-
The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“iPad 3 to be formally announced in January 2012” -ipredict ( 9% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-26; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-02-01.
-
“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.
-
Next iPad refresh (“iPad 3” or similar) will have a model with a >= 240 dpi primary display ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.