Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 0% | 86% | 100% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 1 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 1 | 25 |
Displaying all predictions made by Benja. Filter by:
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By 2022, [almost] every new car will have broadband Internet. — Alyssa Vance ( 41% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-01-08.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: Quirrellmort is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.