Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by jaibot. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black burned Narcissa Malfoy alive. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-06-24; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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Powershame will release an alpha for Linux by July 22, 2013 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-03; known on 2013-07-22; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-23.
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HP MOR: Hermione was never dead, and this will be revealed by the end of Chapter 96 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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Comprehensive immigration reform will get through the House of Representitives, that has a) path to legalizations for undocumented immigrants given they pay back tax debt b) skill/ merit based immigration decisions, and a deprioritization of family connec ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hucavanagh on 2013-07-01; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-02.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.