Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 83% | 80% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 49 | 46 | 61 | 179 | 20 | 376 |
Displaying all predictions made by PlacidPlatypus. Filter by:
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
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By the end of 2020, more than half of the babies born that year are going to be genomically sequenced as soon as they're born. ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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The Force Awakens will reveal the Darth Darth Binks theory to be broadly correct. ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Calien on 2015-11-25; known on 2015-12-17; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-26.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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Missouri will be a swing state in 2016 (within 1% of the vote margin of the median Electoral College vote). ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-31; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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The girl that messaged me last night is a real human. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-13; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-16.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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In the Republican primary Kasich to win Ohio, New Hampshire and at least one other state ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-05-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-03-02.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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R+L=J to be confirmed during Season 6 of Game of Thrones ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by BiasedCalibration on 2016-06-30.
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Both the Democrats and the Republicans will each have at least 160 seats in the 115th House of Representatives ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-02; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-09-14.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Philosopher's Stone ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry is Voldemort ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary will turn out to be just a diary. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the fused personality of Voldemort + original Quirrel ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will spend >=2 years as Defense professor ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a phoenix ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a creature which doesn't age (eg. a basilisk) ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will steal the Philosopher's Stone at some point ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-09-03.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first and is Quirrel ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher who bite him first ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will bite a teacher ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Harry will create a superintelligent AI using magic or magical objects, and it won't be Friendly, killing many/all ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Harry from the future ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will invent some form of 'metamagic' (eg. a self-replicating spell or magical construct/artifact) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's disturbed sleep is a clue to some unrevealed secret (and not just a Time-turner excuse) ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-27.
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HP MoR: Harry is a horcrux ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body and Bellatrix Black will be used in it ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: A ritual will restore Voldemort to a body ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Muggle technology to forge the documents ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they tricked her into writing down the story and then Obliviated her; she trusted her notes and published ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they used Polyjuice Potion to submit the hoax article under Rita Skeeter's name ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Quirrel ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Dumbledore ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: Voldemort deliberately & voluntarily retired from being Dark Lord, after doing something else involving Harry ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: The original Quirrel was Voldemort's master or teacher ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dementors simply kill like anything else, death is death (cf. Death Note) ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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HP MoR: Dementors either copy minds or store souls for later resurrection ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Quirrel possesses the Elder Wand as of chapter 83 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: the Elder Wand is already in the possession of a character ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There are >7 Voldemort Horcruxes ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's fourth year or later of Hogwarts ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's third year of Hogwarts ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's second year of Hogwarts ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel's zombie-mode is about spending time at the Pioneer probe perspective ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2016-01-07.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains a real Resurrection Stone ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a younger version of Voldemort, a damaged backup from many years before (like the diary Riddle) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.