Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by jhartshorn. Filter by:
-
No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
-
COVID, UK – Seven day moving average of confirmed cases exceeds 10,000 again by end of June. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2021-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-06-23.
-
At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
-
A Fortune 500 company (besides Tesla) within the next 3 months will announce they have bought Bitcoin ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-01; known on 2021-06-01; judged wrong by kadavy on 2021-06-01.