Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during October 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-11-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during September 2019 to be] under $40 ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-10-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-03.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during August 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-06.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-07.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Fighting] Borys Mańkowski to beat Norman Parke at KSW 47 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-23.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the eurozone ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the eurozone ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a vote in parliament/legislature on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[In 2019 at least one country in Europe (other than UK) to] hold a referendum on leaving the EU ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[Politics] New Zealand to ban new sales of semi-automatic rifles in 2019 H1 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 1 “newcomer” in the top 100 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include at least 40 “newcomers” ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include any company not from Europe, the United States, Japan, or China in the top 10 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 American companies in the top 10 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list at least 5 Chinese companies in the top 10 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to list Walmart as the largest company in the world ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[Fortune Global 500 as of 2019 (i.e., on 2018 revenues)] to include more Chinese companies than American ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-15.
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[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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Any film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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A non-Marvel film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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A film not produced by Disney or a Disney subsidiary to be the top-grossing 2019 film ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-04-19.
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[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-04-19.
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[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts after 2019 H1 ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-04-19.
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[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] no change to cut level of 1.2 MMbpd or duration ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-04-19.
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[Commodities: At April 2019 meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-04-19.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include fewer than five Americans in the top 10 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least 7 Americans in the top 10 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least six Americans in the top 10 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include at least five Americans in the top 10 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give an American top spot ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Angela Merkel top spot ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to give Theresa May top spot ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include anyone from mainland China in top 10 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Taiwan president Tsai Ing-wen ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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[Forbes “The World's 100 Most Powerful Women” for 2019] to include Estonia Reform Party leader Kaja Kallas ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-18.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] GBPUSD (i.e., the pound will weaken) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Ethereum (Coinbase) ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Bitcoin (Coinbase) ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] VIX ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-03.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] gold (LBMA 10:30 am) ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Conditional on no Brexit March 29, closing price will be LOWER April 1 than March 1 for] Brent crude oil ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Personal] I will be able to 100 consecutive push-ups six weeks from now ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2020 US crude oil production ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Commodities: EIA's April forecast relative to March forecast will be higher for] 2019 US crude oil production ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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Taiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts) ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Fighting] Max Holloway to beat Dustin Poirier at UFC 236 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-15.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to see Likud gain seats (from current 30) ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-10.
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[Politics: Israel's 2019 legislative election] to be held as scheduled on April 9, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-09.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-17.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q4 ( 72% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2020-01-15; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-15.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q3 ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-10-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-10.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q2 ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-07-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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Someone to climb Uluru within three months after doing so is banned on October 26, 2019 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2020-02-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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[Commodities] Palladium price at end of September 2019 to be lower than 1510 USD per troy ounce ( 58% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019 ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of March than at end of February 2019 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-04.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on March 14, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-14.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Conservatives (EKRE) ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-24.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-19.