Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Penn Jillette will get high for charity by the end of 2018. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.
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“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. ( 68% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2019-01-01.
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“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats take control of the House in midterms. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Before 2019, a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate, a member of congress, or a then current governor, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential risk. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-01-01.
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I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books ( 20% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books ( 85% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books ( 99% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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[In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
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“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Before 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 16% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Congress will not extend copyright durations in 2018. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats will control the house of representatives ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dkasser on 2018-04-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2017: Numerous companies develop different vaccination techniques for HIV. ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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2018: After finding the vaccine for HIV, researchers are able to start clinical trials for cures/vaccines for viruses like the cold and flu. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.