Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-03-02; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-03-11.
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bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.
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bitcoin worth less than 44k in 1 week ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-15; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
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Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-01.
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Politics, UK – Margaret Ferrier resigns by April 2021 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-04-05.
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GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
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Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.
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Trump convicted by senate in 2021 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by MultiplyByZer0 on 2021-04-02.
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Joe Biden's administration will officially transition into power on schedule. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aspire43 on 2021-01-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by aspire43 on 2021-01-20.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Pfizer covid vaccine will have received emergency use authorization. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Justinthere on 2020-11-20; known on 2020-11-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-24.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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Joe Biden wins the 2024 presidential election ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-11-16.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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If Trump looses the electoral college votes, he will give up his post normally in January ( 91% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-01.
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The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021 ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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China will successfully incorporate Taiwan by 2050 ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-10-22; known on 2051-01-01.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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[Trump ] dies ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2020-11-06; judged wrong by finback on 2020-11-06.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Brexit transition period ends 31st of December 2020 with no deal or extension. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Texas will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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California will secede by 31 December 2030. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
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North Korea will be invaded in 2022 under citations of human rights and threats of nuclear war ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by limbo on 2020-09-02; known on 2022-08-13; judged wrong by limbo on 2022-08-13.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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Politics, Belarus – Lukashenko is not president anymore by end of November 2020 ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-12-01.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged right by sam_jaques on 2021-07-31.
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World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Biden will drop out of the race before election day Nov 3. ( 7% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ender Wiggin on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
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Will bitcoin ever go below 10,000 again after August 2020? ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-27; known on 2099-01-01.
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Crude oil above $45 when August ends ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-01.
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Joe Biden is physically present in the Oval Office on one or more days between Jan 20, 2021-Jan 31, 2021 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-23; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23851223 makes the front page within 60 minutes from now ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15.
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[US politics] Both the presidential and VP nominees for the Democratic party to be women ( 10% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-09; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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The first approved COVID19 vaccine will be Moderna's ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by srconstantin on 2020-06-29; known on 2022-06-29; judged wrong by srconstantin on 2020-12-18.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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Tech – Crew Dragon launches with human occupants on the 27th of May. ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-23; known on 2020-05-28; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-28.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Stacey Abrams ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Maggie Hassan ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Michelle Lujan Grisham ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Gretchen Whitmer ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Kamala Harris ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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Bitcoin will have gone past $12,000 in the next three months. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-05-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-08-11.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-05-01.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Trump wins the 2020 election. ( 41% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azatris on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-07-10; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-11.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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80,000 COVID-19 deaths in U.S. by July ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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[Geopolitics] Venezuelan regime change (defined as Nicolas Maduro (Nicolas Maduro Moros) (born 23 November 1962) not being President of Venezuela) within one year ( 23% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-03; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-04-04.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >10000 by the end of April. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Stucwerk on 2020-05-01.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >3000 by the end of April. ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged right by Stucwerk on 2020-04-18.