Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 64% | 57% | 69% | 100% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 20 | 6 | 68 |
Displaying all predictions made by clemux. Filter by:
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Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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France will default on its debt ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-02; known on 2015-12-27; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-27.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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I'll be getting something important out of watching Breaking Bad for my programming project in 2 days ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-03; known on 2014-08-05; judged wrong by spacemammoth on 2014-08-05.
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I'll still be alive at the end of 2014 ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
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Use of marijuana for recreation will be legalized in some/all states of Australia by 2016. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by blubble on 2014-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by blubble on 2016-01-01.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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A discovery that diseases can be transmitted or transferred by pure thought from one location to another will be found in 2014. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be traded for >$1000 within 2014 ( 38% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-07-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of 2015, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy will not be tried before the end of the year, for the affair he has been indicted today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by clemux on 2014-07-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by clemux on 2015-01-16.
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Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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When I test the effect of caffeine consumption on sleep quality, I will find a significant effect for 1 can of coke (32mg) regardless of time of day of consumption. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-25.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-09-02.
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EUR/USD on or below 1.22 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.
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EUR/USD on or below 1.23 on 2012-08-07 12:00 UTC. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by clemux on 2012-08-06; known on 2012-08-07; judged wrong by clemux on 2012-08-07.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
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UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.