Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 71% | 50% | 67% | 82% | 94% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 8 | 9 | 11 | 35 | 2 | 72 |
Displaying all predictions made by pkfalu92. Filter by:
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
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complete 000004 22Feb18 ( 68% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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I finish 000003 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000002 completed 22Feb18 ( 5% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000001 takes longer than 1 hour ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000001 completed 22Feb18 ( 65% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000000 takes longer than 3 hours to complete ( 50% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23.
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I finish 000000 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I will keep to my self-imposed rules on T for six months, without cheating, bending the rules, or making any exceptions under any circumstances. ( 88% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-11-11.
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Politics, US – A bill repealing and/or replacing the ACA passes Congress by the end of May. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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nuclear war by july 7, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-06; known on 2017-07-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-08.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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I will complete part 3 of week 5's assignment tonight, by midnight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2017-01-07; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06.
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By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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At least one current core researcher at MIRI will turn to terrorism in order to buy more time for MIRI/others to save humanity ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2039-01-01.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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Trump will nominate Romney ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michael149 on 2016-12-02; known on 2016-12-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-14.
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Worldwide economy 'blows up'. all of: over 100 bank failures, loss of basic access to foodstuffs in major US city, <0% growth of gdp for 2 years in china, g7 nation declares martial law to deal with economic problems ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2020-11-28; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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When elon musk and peter thiel personally land on mars, he unfurls a white pride flag ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-30; known on 2076-01-01.
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There is a nuclear incident (someone uses a nuke) somewhere in the world in the next 4 years ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2020-11-21; judged wrong by platypus42 on 2020-11-26.
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Light speed will still be the same In 2050. In detail: assuming Quantum Field Theory still holds, the model of a free photon will still be massless and therefore its speed will be unavoidably fixed to the speed limit for Lorentz Transformations. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Expipiplusone on 2016-11-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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I will graduate MS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump imprisons Hillary Clinton and her imprisonment is upheld by whatever america has left of its Judiciary ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Abortion illegal in at least one state in the US / Roe v. Wade overturned / passed through Senate/Congress/President/Supreme Court ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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Fiction, Webseries, Twig – 15.2 is from the Lambs' perspective. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-11-08; known on 2016-11-13; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2016-11-14.
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-06-01.
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2016 will be the hottest year ever recorded (since historical records began) ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-18.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Martial law declared in at least a third of the US by by end of 2016. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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The composite American from 2014-2024 will be more supportive of abortion restrictions than the composite American from 2003-2013. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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HP MOR: Dumbledore is Hat and Cloak ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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By the end of the summer, I will have memorized over 500 words in Italian. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
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By the end of the summer, I will have memorized 1000 words in Italian. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2012-10-10.
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By 12am tonight, I will have written my HIS paper. ( 70% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-05; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2012-05-05.
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3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Selector on 2012-04-26; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by alexyakushev on 2013-02-01.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.