Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Server “Aisha” upgrades to Ubuntu 17.10 to successful boot/apache/emacs ( 67% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Brahmos (I) missile will have a successful launch from aircraft in 2016 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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J shows up today as agreed ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Unsong chapter 71 will be very similar to third line of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Clod_and_the_Pebble “But for another gives its ease”. ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-05-09; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-08.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Le Pen will lose the presidential election. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-07.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Jean Luc Mélenchon becomes French president ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Marine Le Pen is not elected President of France, conditional on her running ( 63% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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I will get at least 52 hours of sleep between now and next Sunday, as measured by the SleepCycle app I use on my phone. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-30; known on 2017-05-07; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-07.
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Politics, Brazil – President Temer's pension reforms pass before the end of 2017-05-05. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-06.
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By May 1, 2017, will be publicly known that the US government had head transplant technology. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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Gold will hit US$1300 by May 1st 2017 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-06.
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Politics, US – Tennessee Senate passes bill permitting drivers to put “In God We Trust” on their license plates by the end of April 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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UK – Culprit of acid attack in Islington identified and identified to have had religious motivations by end of April 2017. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Politics, Europe – Greek delayed bailout payment negotiations conclude with agreement to release the payment, by end of April 2017. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Community Project – Challenger Day is run in the UK before the end of April 2017, being run defined as being announced and having at least five people attend. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-12; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-04.
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Weekday ridership at the Fremont BART will decline once the Warm Springs / South Fremont BART becomes operational, as judged by Vipul Naik based on data at http://www.bart.gov/about/reports/ridership ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-04.
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I will manage to get into ketosis at least once by the end of May. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-05-31; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $1350 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the countries tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-03.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 32% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the birds tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the colors tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2017-05-02.
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GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 on or before May 1, 2017. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-02.
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By ensuring that the other two teams can focus on their objective by dealing with “forced move” stories, we expect PPD for other two teams to go up between 0.1 to 0.25. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jais Cheema on 2017-02-03; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-05-02.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon leaves the White House by the end of April 2017 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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United apologizes for conflict with engaged couple ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-05-01.
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I cycled to work at least twice in the last month. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by penten on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by May 1, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >100 million views by May 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully delivers NROL-76 to orbit, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Tech – SpaceX successfully lands the first stage of the NROL-76 launch, conditional on launch not being aborted. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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By 2017-04-30 Sun: I will have implemented (in my judgement) changes to supplement timings to try to improve absorption/bioavailability. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 47% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of mobile web pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 42% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the insects tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for April 2017 than for April 2016. ( 58% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-02; known on 2017-05-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01.