Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 67% | 83% | 82% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 9 | 6 | 17 | 21 | 2 | 65 |
Displaying all predictions made by 6thNapoleon. Filter by:
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The Brexit Party to win the most seats in the next UK General Election ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-06-02; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-25.
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Boris Johnson to become Prime Minister by the next Conservative Party conference ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-23.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on, or by, 31 October ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-05-16; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-11-01.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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The Independent Group (TIG), or its successor party, to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-08; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 12 April ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-12.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-30.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on March 14, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-14.
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[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.
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[Politics] Trump will be elected for a second term ( 45% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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No new NK nuclear weapon tests in 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.
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The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.
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“May still in power” ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Britain out of EU” ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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“Bitcoin above 5000” ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive” ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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“The US will not enter a recession” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK and European Council agree to extend the Article 50 deadline. ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Econ -The Bank of England's Bank Rate on 1 April 2019 is between 0.26% and 0.5% inclusive. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-04-02; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-04-15.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-02-01.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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'2057 On October 4, the centenary of Sputnik 1, the dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans on Earth, the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan, and in orbit around Venus, Neptune and Pluto.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2058-01-01.
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“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.