Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 38% | 76% | 86% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 8 | 8 | 25 | 21 | 11 | 0 | 73 |
Displaying all predictions made by technicalities. Filter by:
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The SAV001 HIV vaccine will show significant results, Cohen's d > 0.3. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Conditional on it occurring, a CRISPR clinical trial will have disappointing results. (Cohen's d < 0.3) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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No attempt of a human head transplant. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Conditional on no GE, no new leadership challenge to Corbyn. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Liberal Democratic party will gain seats as a result of the general election on 8th June ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by penten on 2017-06-09.
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The UK Conservative Party will increase its majority in parliament as a result of the general election on 8th June. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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In 2017, I will get a Brier score of > 0.2. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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I will get 70% or more of these predictions right. (Correct sign) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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A CRISPR clinical trial will be conducted on humans in the US. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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“Data science” hype will continue to increase, as measured by Google Trends hits / world job openings. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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At least one PlayStation-level data breach. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-10.
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No verified quantum supremacy this year. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No human head transplant results in a conscious subject. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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There will be a larger DDoS attack than the October Dyn attack. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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EMDrive thrust will not be positively replicated by a reliable independent party, like Tau Zero. (Not Shawyer, White, Fetti.) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Brent crude will finish above $60 per barrel. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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2016 will remain the hottest year on record. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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F-35 program will not be curtailed. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Obamacare will not be substantially cut (i.e. no, >10% spending cut or coverage retraction). ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Deportations from the US will not increase by more than a quarter. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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TPP will not be ratified this year. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-31.
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Trump’s approval will be below 55% throughout the year. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will end the year above 35% approval. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Trump's first state visit will be to the UK. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-05-23.
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US will not get involved in any new war with death toll of >100 US soldiers ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No criminal investigation of Hillary Clinton in 2017. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Total media mentions of ISIL continues to decline. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Assad will remain President of Syria. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Syrian ceasefire (Russian brokered, Dec 16) will not last. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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The Iran nuclear deal will hold (i.e. no Iranian uranium enrichment) ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Joseph Kabila will not be in power. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Ethiopia will see GDP growth of >= 7%. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Pro-Russian forces will continue to hold Donetsk and Luhansk. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Putin’s domestic approval will remain above 50% in whatever reputable polls exist there. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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China will not enter recession this year. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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May's approval rating above 30% at year end. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No snap UK general election held this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-04-19.
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The UK triggers Article 50. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-03-31; judged right by custom on 2017-03-29.
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There will be no public agreement on UK membership of the common market, post-Brexit. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No second Scottish independence referendum announced in 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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AfD will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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Alternative für Deutschland will gain 40+ seats in the German election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-09-24.
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PVV will not end up in power. ( 80% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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Partij voor de Vrijheid will gain 5+ seats in the Dutch election. ( 70% confidence )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-03-16.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Le Pen will lose the presidential election. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-05-07.
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Front National will gain 30+ seats in the French legislative election. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Fewer refugees admitted to European countries in 2017 than 2016. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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No country will (initiate proceedings to) leave the Eurozone. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack outside of Iraq and Syria causes >300 deaths in 2017. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be < 500,000 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Total death toll from malaria by year end 2017 will be > 350,000. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31.
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Terrorism death toll by year end 2017 will be < 30,000 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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US will not withdraw from TTIP ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-01-23; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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Politics – Julian Assange travels to the US consensually within 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-18; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Donald Trump’s approval rating at the end of 2017 is lower than fifty percent ( 83% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.