Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 56% | 43% | 69% | 100% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 7 | 16 | 8 | 50 | 24 | 114 |
Displaying all predictions made by ahartell. Filter by:
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Hillary Clinton to be elected President in 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.