Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 75% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 0 | 15 |
Displaying all predictions made by atzeje. Filter by:
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Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2030 ( 20% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Zuckerberg wins against Musk (cond the match happens, cond no technology used in/immediately before battle) ( 77% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.
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Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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Ukraine to withdraw from Bakhmut by April 10. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-03-05; known on 2023-04-11; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-11.
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Biden loses the 2024 presidential election ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-15; known on 2025-02-01.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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At least one Entso-e supranational brownout or blackout or rolling blackout above 15 min. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-09-17; known on 2023-04-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2023-04-10.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.
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Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atzeje on 2021-09-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
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Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
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Ivermectin will be shown to be ineffective as a form of prophylaxis for COVID-19 before 2024. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
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Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.