Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 19 |
Displaying all predictions made by etarletons. Filter by:
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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Blue Sky's “real sugar” sodas come in cans that are thinner than the standard can. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by etarletons on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-08-05; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-08-05.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM. ( 60% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-09; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction. ( 45% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-08.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married. ( 15% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-07.
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One randomly selected CFAR workshop participant will hold a non-USA citizenship ( 25% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-06-13; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-07.
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Scott's next post will be whining about feminist responses to Elliot Rodgers. It will contain an epistemically weak response from some sort of manosphere type “for balance, because I do not trust my readers” but also a reassurance that feminism is the rea ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Oligopsony on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-05-29; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-05-27.
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I will have learned “a new thing” about my food problem by the end of May, as determined by an impartial judge when I explain how the month has gone. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-12.
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I will go to choir tomorrow. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-03; known on 2014-05-04; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-04.
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Tomorrow I will be asked/invited to do something outside of the house that is not grocery shopping. ( 30% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2014-05-03; judged right by etarletons on 2014-05-03.
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I will publicly record at least one prediction per month, at least until the end of 2014. ( 78% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-05-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-11-26.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.