Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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23andMe will offer >=550k SNP genotyping for <=$100 during 2014. ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2040 the existence of Qi will be accepted by the mainstream scientists, and Qi research will revolutionize our mechanical scientific TOE into a true TOE.” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Downtown American cities in two hundred years will look pretty much as they do now.” ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2203-01-01.
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“By the year 2020 solar electricity will be as cheap or cheaper than that produced by fossil fuels.” ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2012 scientists will not have developed an explanation for how images on the Shroud of Turin came to be on the cloth -an explanation that satisfies all of the physical and chemical properties of the images and does not violate basic laws of physics.” ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“Music CDs compatible with current (2002) CD players will still be sold regularly in 2015.” ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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“By 2025 the scientific evidence of a hither-to-unknown large bi-pedal great ape will be sufficient to convince at least 50% of primatologists that a yeti/bigfoot-like creature exists.” ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2025-01-01.
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“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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Some people living today (October 17th, 2009) will also be alive on October 17th, 3009. ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 3009-10-17.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Trike IT will have migrated to being a python shop ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam on 2009-02-12; known on 2012-02-12; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-04-05.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.