Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 100% | 67% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by Soeren. Filter by:
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Joey and Xio's study will find further evidence in favor of vegetarianism advocacy ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-07-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-03-20.