Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 47% | 81% | 84% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 32 | 8 | 115 |
Displaying all predictions made by Sarokrae. Filter by:
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a Horcrux, as well as anything else ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is the original Quirrel possessed by Voldemort (a la Philosopher's Stone) ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is Voldemort in some sense ( 89% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel believes that Harry's stone is the Resurrection Stone ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy as transmitted to Voldemort was faked, modified, altered, or incomplete ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by nigr on 2016-03-07.
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HP MoR: The Prophecy actually referred to Neville Longbottom and not Harry ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy was, at least initially, Imperiused into becoming a Death Eater ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one character whose Animagus form is another human ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel when he killed Rita Skeeter ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux made by Quirrel ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is a Horcrux ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: A Deathly Hallow besides the Cloak will appear in the possession of a character in the present-day at some point ( 92% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape will go back to the dark side, such as working for Voldemort ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Azkaban Island is the last remnant of Atlantis ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the Philosopher's Stone will be mass-manufactured by Harry or at his behest ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 5 Voldemort Horcruxes are where Harry suggested putting hidden things in ch46 ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: someone will be mentioned or shown using the Imperius curse on themselves (or consenting to another's use on them) to supplement their willpower (dieting, working hard, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: story completed during Harry's first year of Hogwarts ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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No US sitting US Republican Senator who is up for reelection in 2014 will come out publicly in favor of gay marriage before April 1, 2014. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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Apple's iWatch will come out before iTV ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-28; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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The top 3 most watched YouTube videos will stay the same till February 1st. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by cyblifeformnode on 2012-12-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2013-04-04.
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I will NOT win the power ball lotto ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-29.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 11th 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-11; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-11.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 21st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-21; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 31st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by army1987 on 2012-12-21.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Mars rover SAM instrument discovers live microorganisms in Martian soil. ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Samm on 2013-04-26.
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Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.
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The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/12/12-06/01/13 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-01-06; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-12-28.
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The Met Office will issue a severe weather warning for some parts of the UK in the period 06/11/12-06/12/12 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-06; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-11-21.
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I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ggreer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by ggreer on 2012-11-16.
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Gene Munster: Apple will sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend (compared with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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Wang Yang will not be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Li Keqiang will be appointed the next Premier of the State Council of China. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Xi Jinping will be apppointed the next chairman of the Communist Party of China. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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I won't upgrade to iPhone 5 before February 2013. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-02-01.
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I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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In the 2012 election, Obama will pick up at least one state he didn't win in 2008. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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I won't be able to find a >320gb external hard drive for my friend ( 75% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-07-26; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-07-26.
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The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on continued fractions ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will get an alpha for the CATAM project on hypothesis testing ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
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The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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I will gain at least one Pinterest follower who is a “real person” (has pinned things, pins don't contain spam links) by this time tomorrow ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.
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I will gain at least one more Pinterest follower by this time tomorrow ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04.
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I will get a principal recall for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will get no recall at all for Ruddigore ( 20% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will get a chorus recall for Ruddigore ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-29; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-28.
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I will get a 2:1 this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will be get a first this year ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-06-25; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-06-23.
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I will visit China this summer ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by Sarokrae on 2012-04-29.
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It will rain in Cambridge, UK tomorrow between 1pm and 5pm. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-05; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-04-05.