Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 47% | 81% | 84% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 17 | 21 | 25 | 32 | 8 | 115 |
Displaying all predictions made by Sarokrae. Filter by:
-
No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
-
'Groupon will trade less than 25% of its current share price and may restructure / fold' —dia80 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
-
President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
-
Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
-
P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
-
“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.