Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Reddit: birdie / cheese are in a relationship in 6 months (and we get an update). ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-06-01.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 3 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.
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I will reread chapter 2 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 3 hours. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-05-31; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-31.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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I will achieve a passing score on practice test #2. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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I will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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I will finish practice test #2 within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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I will complete chapter 4 of Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next 10 hours. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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I will complete chapter 1 of the All-In-One LPIC-1/CompTIA Linux+ Certification Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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My MCT Oil will arrive on or before my birthday. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-06-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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My MCT Oil will arrive on or before 05/30/2012. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-30.
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The Pittsburgh Penguins will defeat the Philadelphia Flyers in 7 games in the 2012 Stanley Cup Playoffs ( 13% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-04-25; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-05-30.
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I will complete The Command Line Crash Course by Zed A. Shaw within a week from now. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-29.
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Dewey LaBoeuf (law firm) will cease to exist by the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29.
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I will listen to the entire lecture series Practicing Mindfulness: An Introduction to Meditation by Mark W. Muesse within the next 3 weeks. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-26.
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I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
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If I donate blood today, then I will feel sick afterward. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-25.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
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I will achieve a passing score on both practice tests. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-24; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.
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I will achieve a passing score on practice test #1. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-05-22; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-22.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.
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Facebook will fall below it's offering price ($38) next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-21.
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I will complete chapter 18 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21; known on 2012-05-21; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-21.
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Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period, and the difference will be significant at p<0.05 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.
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Daily average click-through to DNB FAQ will be be <5% during the Talk-only period as compared to the previous Article-only period. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-05-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-20.
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I will complete chapter 17 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-20.
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Harvard's yield for the class of 2016 will be 76% or below. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-05-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-20.
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The “blind lawyer” Chinese dissident will come to the US (for however long) before end of 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19.
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I will complete Metal Gear Solid 3: Snake Eater within the next 30 days. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-19.
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Facebook IPO price will “pop” above $45 on first day ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-18.
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HP MoR: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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I will complete my daily Anki review within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
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I will complete my Anki physics deck and merge it with my master deck within the next 10 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
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Major winter storm in the southeast before summer 2012. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-02-04; known on 2012-05-16; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-05-16.
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I will complete chapter 16 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 10 hours. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-05-16; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-16.
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In 6 months I'll have a visible sixpack. ( 73% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2012-08-02; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16.
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I will finish a second draft of my article before my advisor meeting tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2012-05-04; judged right by papermachine on 2012-05-15.
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Yahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.
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“From 2008 to 2011, sales of professional and personal service robots more than double – from 5.5 million to over 11.5 million.” ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.
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I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.
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Jeremy Lin will not return to the NBA this season. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-05-11; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-05-11.
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Philadelphia will get past the first round of the 2012 NBA playoffs ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11.
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Death Note: Equestria: Spike is L ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-10.
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Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by OptiMind on 2012-05-09.
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Jeg kommer til Korea inden sommer. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OptiMind on 2012-01-12; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by OptiMind on 2012-05-09.
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I will complete chapter 1 of Gödel, Escher, Bach: An Eternal Golden Braid within the next 10 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-08.
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I will complete chapter 10 of the All-In-One CompTIA Network+ Exam Guide within the next 8 hours. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-07.