Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Having an agw for myself. ( 80% confidence )
Created by shardo on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by shardo on 2020-02-14.
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Politics, UK – Chancellor Sajid Javid is removed from their position as Chancellor by deadline. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-13.
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IV and I will have dinner tonight ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-02-12; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-02-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Personal – I get hold of a key to the ground floor bike storage in my apartment building by deadline. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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Personal – I go cycling for any length of time > 0 before deadline. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-11; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-12.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next five years. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2019-01-06; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-11.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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Tech – Charter delays shutdown of its home security service beyond 2020-02-05. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-10.
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Weather, UK – Edinburgh Castle is closed or has reduced hours on 2020-02-09 due to weather ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Weather, UK – My bus home in Edinburgh is delayed more than ten minutes compared to published arrival time, night of 2020-02-08 ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-09.
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Sports, OWL- London Spitfire beats NY Excelsior ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-08; known on 2020-02-09; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Personal – My piped-in heating and hot water system is fixed by deadline. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-08.
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Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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Rick Perry to testify publicly before a committee in Congress as part of impeachment inquiry ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-10; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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The Senate trial for Trump’s impeachment will have at least one witness give testimony (public or private) in 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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Politics, UK – Big Ben rings on the 31st of January or 1st of February, London Time. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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Politics – Iran strikes, and does not deny striking, a US military base between 2020-01-12 and 2020-02-02 ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-03.
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By the prediction date, due to technological advances, UPS loading positions and teams will be no more 20% of their current size. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by murrlong on 2016-11-29; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by olimay on 2020-02-01.
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Personal – I manage to find a way to store my bike at ground level, short of the stairwell, before start of 2020-02-01 ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Lagertha survives season 6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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[Vikings] Bjorn is elected king of all Norway ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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US Secretary of State to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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US President to visit Iran by 2020-01-25 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-26; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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Mukhtarbay Otelbayev will not win a Millennium Prize for his work on the Navier-Stokes equations. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-24; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-31.
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Health, UK – News reports of a confirmed case of 2019-nCoV in UK by deadline. ( 74% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-23; known on 2020-02-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-31.
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January 2020 VIX call at 22 will be in the money ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-01-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-01-31.
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There will be more than 8000 human infections of the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be reported before 2021 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-30.
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Tech – Travelex website is once again offering online automated foreign exchange services before start of 2020-01-27. ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal – My heating has been fixed by 2020-01-25 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-11; known on 2020-01-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-27.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Chinese People's Liberation Army to be (overtly) deployed to Hong Kong by 2020-01-23 ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-01-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.