Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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At least one story in Kazaka Press's Bronies anthology will win a Nebula award in 2013. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-06-06; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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At least one story in Kazka Press's Bronies anthology will be nominated for a 2013 Nebula award. ( 30% confidence )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-06-13; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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The big Short will win best picture oscar ( 40% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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The Big Short win the best film award ( 60% confidence )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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rjlipton.wordpress.com describe a heads heads/tails coin problem on 2016-02-21. They'll state whether the problem is decidable in their next post. ( 50% confidence )
Created by whosyourjay on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-02-28; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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Ceasefire, “truce”, OR no-fly zone imposed in full or in part, in or within an area in Syria or Iraq before April 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-02-27.
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I will not get a second interview with my most recent interviewers. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2016-02-24.
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'As for [Korean] reunification, I see it in the next five years.' —B.R. Myers ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-26; known on 2016-02-23; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-23.
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D or A will leave something behind. ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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D will travel by car with A tomorrow. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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A will beat their record archery score tomorrow. ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 6 weeks. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-03-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in 5 weeks. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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I will be out of my sling in four weeks. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-18; known on 2016-02-21; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-21.
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Bernie Sanders will win the Nevada primary ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-13; known on 2016-02-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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Masdar City phase 1 complete ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Jeb! to be voted President of the United States. Republicans Rule House and Senate as they currently do already! ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-06-19; known on 2017-06-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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I will give D some food tonight. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-21; known on 2016-02-22; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-21.
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My ex-husband will move out of the state before his 35th birthday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Lissy on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Lissy on 2016-02-18.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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I will play any of Firewatch before 2016-02-17 ( 95% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-17.
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My husband, while sitting on PredictionBook, will ask me yet again what I think the odds are for Hilary or Bernie or Trump, even though he just asked me yesterday. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SmartArse on 2016-02-16; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16.
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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I will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-15.
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Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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Windows phone quarterly sales as a percentage of smartphones sold will eclipse iphone by 4th quarter 2015 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by henchman21 on 2013-10-03; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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There will be >= 1 valentine's day engagement announcements in my Facebook newsfeed today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
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Today there will be >= 1 posts in my Facebook newsfeed about how Valentine's day is stupid, a secret ploy by corporations, or something something patriarchy. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-14; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-02-15.
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“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.
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Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-02-14.
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India will win the remaining two T20 matches against Sri Lanka (SL T20 tour of India). Pitches will be more spin-friendly than at Pune. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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Number of T20 international matches in 2015 was at least 20% more than that in 2013 (as per Wikipedia), despite the ODI world cup. (Reasoning: T20I matches seem to be much more common now) ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-12; known on 2016-02-14; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-02-14.
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I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2016-02-13; judged wrong by mad on 2016-02-13.
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HP MOR: EY already planned to incorporate the Peverell tombstone quote before Raemon asked him. ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-02-13.
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I will get a cold in the next week. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-02-13.
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Assuming Romney doesn't win, Paul Ryan will be one of the top 3 candidates in Republican primary for president in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-02-12.
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Global bear market(90% of stock indices will fall by 20% from 2015 peak) ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-11.
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Gravitational waves will be detected this year. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by kuudes on 2016-02-11.
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I will beat C in the next game of AoE2 we play together. ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-02-11; judged right by splorridge on 2016-02-11.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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A federal government run health insurance plan will not be approved before midnight ET 31 Dec 2009 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Spring on 2016-02-10.
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Romney won't be top 3 in 2016 Iowa causes ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.