Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 64% | 63% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 93 | 90 | 144 | 143 | 508 | 165 | 1143 |
Displaying all predictions made by Bruno Parga. Filter by:
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-16.
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In the next 5 years, Northern Ireland holds either an Irish reunification referendum, or an independence referendum. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
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Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-16; known on 2080-01-01.
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Florida shooter shot either independently, or on behalf of dalwa al isalmyya and not Al-Qaeda. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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War in Venezuela and/or Venezuela invaded by one of its neighbours ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The popularity of professional American Football (with the huge men and body armor) will decline, and will be overtaken by Soccer (which the rest of the world calls Football) ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2022-02-28.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Syrian government will take Raqqa from Islamic State this year. ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.
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₹72-3 to the US dollar by December 2016. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-25; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-26.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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There will be at least 3 candidates for U.S. President polling at 10%+ on the eve of the 2016 elections. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-19; known on 2016-11-07; judged wrong by sflicht on 2016-11-08.
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Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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Twin prime conjecture solved by 2050 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
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2019: HIV is able to be thrown into remission in HIV+ individuals carrying the HIV-1 strain, only. Further research is needed for HIV-2. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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“All of the major candidates for the 2016 presidential election will have had samples of their DNA taken and analyzed (perhaps without the candidates’ permission.) The results of the analysis for each candidate will be widely disseminated and will influen ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2016-11-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-11-04.