Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NFL: Seattle Seahawks will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Pittsburgh Steelers will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Green Bay Packers will beat the Detroit Lions in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Indianapolis Colts will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the Carolina Panthers in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: St. Louis Rams will beat the Buffalo Bills in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Jacksonville Jaguars will beat the NY Jets in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 14 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-09; known on 2012-12-12; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-10.
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papermachine will buy Grognor a monocle on or by December 7, 2012 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-18; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-12-09.
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NFL: The Denver Broncos will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 14 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-12-06; known on 2012-12-07; judged right by RandomNFL on 2012-12-07.
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Average 7 day ROI across all B AW Cs will be >200% within 3 weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-12-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2012-12-07.
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I will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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44 views will show up in YouTube analytics tomorrow to match Insight API reports. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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The sun will rise tomorrow ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xtat on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2012-12-05.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 6: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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I will study for final exams for >5 hours today ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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I will get in >10 minutes of walking/running today ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-04; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-05.
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I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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NFL: NY Giants will beat the Washington Redskins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-04.
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The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: SF 49ers will beat the St. Louis Rams in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Denver Broncos will beat the Tampa Bay Bucs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Houston Texans will beat the Tennessee Titans in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Dallas Cowboys will beat the Philly Eagles in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 85% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: GB Packers will beat the Minnesota Vikings in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: New England Patriots will beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Carolina Panthers will beat the KC Chiefs in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 75% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Detroit Lions will beat the Indianapolis Colts in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Baltimore Ravens will beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Buffalo Bills will beat the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: NY Jets will beat the Arizona Cardinals in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Cincinnati Bengals will beat the San Diego Chargers in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 55% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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NFL: Cleveland Browns will beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 65% confidence )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
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The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
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Bitcoin will be exchanged at a rate higher than $17/BTC at the end of November, 2012. ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2012-11-15; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-01.
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The complete Russian translation of Facing the Singularity will be posted to facingthesingularity.com by the end of November. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 57 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2012-12-01.
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US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-01.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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It'll be reported that FBI didn't get a search warrant to access Broadwell's gmail account ( 65% confidence; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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NFL: Atlanta Falcons will beat the New Orleans Saints in Week 13 of the 2012 Season ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-30.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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I will NOT win the power ball lotto ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-28; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by rbhamilton@gmail.com on 2012-11-29.
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NFL: Harbaugh will name Alex Smith as his starter for the 49ers this week ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-29.