Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 67% | 83% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 19 | 25 | 27 | 40 | 82 | 84 | 277 |
Displaying all predictions made by Pablo. Filter by:
-
Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
-
The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
-
A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
-
By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
-
The average healthy, non-smoking, physically active male reader of Reddit now in his early 30s will live long enough to experience a Singularity and in some manner escape the bonds of traditional mortality. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
-
Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
-
I will have completed all (367) exercises on Khan Academy by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-12-31.
-
I will not publish an NYT bestseller in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
-
I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
-
I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
-
I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
-
The US presidential debates of 2016 will feature a three-way debate between a Democrat, a Republican, and a Libertarian Party candidate. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02.
-
No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
-
Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
-
In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
-
I will not smoke a tobacco product for the next 5 years. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-07; judged right by gwern on 2017-09-07.
-
“The Singularity and Machine Ethics” will have been cited more than 5 times, according to Google Scholar, by the end of 2013. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
-
No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
-
I'll still be a physicalist throughout 2013. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
-
No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
-
The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
-
Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
-
I will read every entry in the Summer 2012 Edition of the Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy within 1 year from now. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-11; known on 2013-07-11; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-27.
-
Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
-
Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
-
“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
GJP: #1084 Who will win Venezuela’s 2012 presidential election? Hugo Chavez ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-10-20; judged right by scav on 2012-10-11.
-
Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
-
No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
-
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
-
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
-
Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
-
President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
-
The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
-
The oldest living person on 2020-01-01 will be at least 130 years old. ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
-
Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
-
NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
-
Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
-
I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
-
Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
-
Obama is going to be re-elected as president in 2012. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by Jach on 2012-11-07.
-
Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
-
By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
-
Australia will no longer be part of the Commonwealth by 2020 ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-03-17; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
-
Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
-
Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared. —Ray Kurzweil ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate. —Ray Kurzweil ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
-
'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
'Terabyte SD cards will be available' in 2014 ( 31% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
-
A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
-
By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.” ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
-
“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
-
“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
-
“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
-
“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
“By 2025, more than 50% of desktop computers in the world will be running an open-source operating system.” ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
-
“By 2020, 75% of all incremental new generation will come from renewable/sustainable energy in the U.S.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
-
“By 2020, no one will have won a Nobel Prize for work on superstring theory, membrane theory, or some other unified theory describing all the forces of nature.” ( 81% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
“At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.” ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2150-01-01.
-
The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.
-
Barack Obama will get reelected in two years (not individual opinion) ( 66% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2012-11-06; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
I will finish my PhD degree within the next three years. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2009-12-30; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-09-27.
-
Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
-
No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
-
A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
-
Generic AI won't happen in the next 10 years. ( 85% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-10-14; judged right by rwallace on 2019-10-15.
-
I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.