Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 62% | 75% | 73% | 98% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 29 | 24 | 15 | 63 | 3 | 144 |
Displaying all predictions made by davidmanheim. Filter by:
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A US state (other than Florida) will declare at least a county-wide state of emergency due to the Zika virus before June of 2016 ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-02-04; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire Primary ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-02-08; judged right by Temeraire on 2016-02-14.
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No 2016 Presidential candidate receives a majority of Electoral votes ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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No major earthquake (>100 deaths) in US in 2016 ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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No major earthquake (>10000 deaths) in the world in 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket in 2016. (Payload reaches outer space, i.e. 100km) ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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US unemployment to be lower at end of 2016 than beginning ( 75% confidence )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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US GDP growth in 2016 lower than in 2015 ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-03-02.
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Dow Jones Industrial Average will not fall > 10% over the course of 2016. (It will end above 15,434) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Oil will end 2016 lower than $40 a barrel ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2017-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2016 higher than $500 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state (Excluding the PA/Hamas, not excluding IS or Hezbollah) in 2016 ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro in 2016 ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive 2016 without large civil war/revolt ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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No terrorist attack in the in the US will kill > 100 people in 2016 ( 88% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2017-01-02.
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Rubio mops up on Super Tuesday, taking more than 60% of the primaries. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-03.
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Brokered convention. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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2016 Election is Clinton vs Rubio. ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-27; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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Democrats win House of Representatives in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03.
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2016 SpaceX successfully launches a reused rocket: ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The S&P 500 will go below 1814 by February 1, 2016 ( 33% confidence; 22 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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The VIX index will go above 35 by April 1, 2016 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by equivrel-markets on 2016-04-02.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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By January 30th, 2016 War between Satan and God, clearly happening to those on Earth. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-30; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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The spot price of gold will exceed $2000/troy oz. at some point before December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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In the next five years, two classes in the Complexity Zoo as of 10 August 2011, will either be shown to be equal or shown to be unequal. ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-10; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.