Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #10 is written by an atheist. ( 51% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #2 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #5 is written by an atheist. ( 65% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #4 is written by an atheist. ( 55% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #9 is written by an atheist. ( 15% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #8 is written by an atheist. ( 30% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #7 is written by an atheist. ( 35% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #6 is written by an atheist. ( 20% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #3 is written by an atheist. ( 45% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #11 is written by an atheist. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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Unequally Yoked: Ideological Turing Test - Christian Entry #6 is written by an atheist. ( 20% confidence )
Created by modernalgebra on 2013-07-26; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by modernalgebra on 2013-09-25.
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My current programming project will be at least 10,000 lines of code (including comments and whitespace) by the end of summer. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2013-09-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2013-09-24.
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DE: The FDP will get more than 5% of the vote at the Bundestag elections '13 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-09; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-09-24.
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Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Batista dies ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a “dark passenger”; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Le BOSS Talk Pomodoro va nous aider à nous concentrer ( 30% confidence )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
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La suppression du binôme de maintenance et gestion + challenging au stand-up par l'équipe ne causera pas de problème ( 70% confidence )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
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La Story Robustesse des tests nous a permis de rendre les tests de plateforme et de contrat vraiment plus stables. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-08-26; known on 2013-09-23; judged right by ericlefevre on 2013-09-23.
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AfD will stay under 5% at the German federal elections ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-16; known on 2013-09-30; judged right by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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Patrick likes cheddar. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2013-09-21; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2013-09-21.
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Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
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Conditioned on the Summoner not having a tale of this form, The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “The things that I've seen” ( 60% confidence )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.
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The Pardoner will have a tale of the form “How a good-ish man was never shrived and (probably) went to hell.” ( 60% confidence )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-19.
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In the AFL, the Hawks will defeat Geelong in round 15. ( 55% confidence )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by atroche on 2013-09-17.
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The Magic set “Theros” will have a legend subtheme, hereby defined as: at least 20 legends and at least 5 cards that explicitly interact with legends. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2013-05-23; known on 2013-09-27; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2013-09-14.
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Larry's talk will have more than 15 attendees ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benkuhn on 2013-09-03; known on 2013-09-13; judged right by benkuhn on 2013-09-13.
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The Wife of Bath will have a tale of the form “How I wooed/lost my nth husband” ( 60% confidence )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.
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The Wife of Bath's stories will be of the general category “The adultress's tale”. ( 60% confidence )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-09; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by linkhyrule5 on 2013-09-10.
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Each person who brings a dish to the Effective Altruism Salon will be able to feed an average of between 2 and 4 people. ( 40% confidence )
Created by dusk on 2013-09-07; known on 2013-09-10; judged wrong by dusk on 2013-09-10.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Microsoft will buy Nokia. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-09-10; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by bknakker on 2013-09-09.
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We will have hired a Magento dev by 6 September ( 40% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2013-08-28; known on 2013-09-07; judged wrong by Matt on 2013-09-09.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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I will have read all the books on this list: http://bit.ly/RMV7me ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-09-05; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-06.
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Two weeks after opening, 'Dark Tourist' (by Suri Krishnamma) will hold a score of <45% on RottenTomatoes.com. ( 75% confidence )
Created by lukeprog on 2013-08-17; known on 2013-09-05; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-09-05.
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An alternative to using seat belts (i.e., seatbelt-less seats) will be invented for air travel by 2013. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-30; known on 2013-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-05.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 1 year ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-09-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Nov 1, 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.