Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
more than 10 students will come to my class today ( 45% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.
-
More than 5 students will come to my class today ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-13; known on 2011-05-14; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-14.
-
'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
'1000 dollars per Bitcoin by the end of the year.' —Bruce Wagner ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
I'll be home before 9pm! ( 90% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.
-
I'll be home before 9pm! ( 90% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.
-
There will be no one at home when Im back! ( 90% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-12; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-13.
-
Eric Saade will proceed to the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest 2011 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-13; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-13.
-
I will get a 4.0 in my class. ( 96% confidence )
Created by etrecheesecake on 2011-04-07; known on 2011-05-12; judged right by etrecheesecake on 2011-05-12.
-
FC Barcelona will win La Liga 2010/11 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-12.
-
David will make his Vancouver connection to Kelowna as scheduled ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rgoodlad on 2011-05-10; known on 2011-05-11; judged right by rgoodlad on 2011-05-11.
-
Mervi Tapola will either cancel or let expire her divorce with Matti Nykänen during the six month waiting period. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mikko on 2010-08-17; known on 2011-02-17; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-11.
-
The Hon Tony Abbott MHR will never be the PM ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by thechadisgreat on 2010-02-23; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-07.
-
Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
-
“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
-
“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
-
“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
-
Bin Laden is still alive! ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-04; known on 2011-07-04; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-04.
-
Liverpool will win Fulham tomorrow ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-09; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.
-
I will get a Credit for Finance & Project Management Assignment 1 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-10; known on 2011-05-04; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-10.
-
Chelsea will win Manchester United. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-07; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-09.
-
Tanjong Pagar will win in the coming SG election for the 11th time. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-05-08; judged right by gwern on 2011-05-08.
-
Bitcoin >$5/btc in a week —jimrandomh ( 20% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.
-
Matt will submit a physical model at his next presentation ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-05-06; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.
-
AC Milan will win Seria A 2010/11 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-05-23; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-08.
-
A significant portion of the plot of Kore wa Zombie Desu ka? will be revealed to be a “Dying Dream.” ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-01-22; known on 2011-07-18; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-05-08.
-
PatrickRobotham write >=500 words on cantor set searches in Haskell ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-03; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-08.
-
The yes to AV vote will win by a narrow margin ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jase9r on 2011-04-24; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-07.
-
i will watch fast and furious within this week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-05-07.
-
i will watch fast and furious within this week ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-07; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-05-07.
-
I will use one of Sydney's temporary open-air urinals within the next month. ( 10% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-05-06; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-05-07.
-
Man UTD will beat Shalke 04 on semi-final of Champhions League. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dumun on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-05-05; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-06.
-
ben will do the first floor of the opt model. ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by puya on 2011-04-17; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.
-
14/14 of my students will submit work on Wednesday that fulfils the minimum requirements. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-05; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-05.
-
2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
Next tuesday, at least one member in my group will not come before 6pm. ( 70% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-03; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-03.
-
The price of petrol at the pump will reach $1.55 at some point before the end of April – http://bit.ly/eUr3eE ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-21; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.
-
I will finish leave_command today ( 80% confidence )
Created by yurifury on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-02; judged right by yurifury on 2011-05-02.
-
The final funnel form will be elliptical ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.
-
The final funnel form will be oval ( 52% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-02; known on 2011-05-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-02.
-
Liverpool will defeat Newcastle tonight. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.
-
The result of the match between Arsenal and Man United will be a draw. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-05-01.
-
I will get up at 7.30 am tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-05-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by minhduc on 2011-05-01.
-
“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-07.
-
I will study all night after finish work during weekends. ( 90% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.
-
I will finish my elective assignment within this week. ( 90% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by sailoryoon on 2011-05-01.
-
The coastal trail will take less than 5 hours tomorrow ( 55% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.