Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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'A major meteor impact occurs on the north polar ice cap. The resulting tsunamis cause considerable damage along the coasts of Greeland and Canada. The long-discussed “Project Spaceguard,” to identify and deflect potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Phone calls entail three-dimensional holographic images of both people. —Ray Kurzweil ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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'Nanotech clothing enters the mass market' by 2022 ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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'Tooth regeneration is transforming dental care' by 2022 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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'Piezoelectric nanowires are appearing in high-end products' by 2022 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01.
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Deafness cured by 2022 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.
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'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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'Complete organ replacements grown from stem cells' in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Holographic TV is mainstream' in 2020 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Texting by thinking' in 2020 ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Internet use reaches 5 billion worldwide' in 2020 ( 71% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-03.
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“Global oil demand exceeds 100m barrels per day” in 2019 ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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the Large Aral Sea gone in 2019 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Automated freight transport” widespread by 2030s ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2040-01-01.
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“Bionic eyes are commercially available” in 2019 ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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“The ITER experimental fusion reactor is switched on” in 2019 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Acute spinal injuries are fully treatable” in 2019 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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By 2100 it's obvious to the average human that (1) Global warming is true and (2) it's actually a good thing: Resulting in a better climate then we have had in recorded history. A stable Wet-Sahara/Warm-Siberia/No Rainforest scenario. ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.
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Google's WebP image format will be unsuccessful. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-06-22.
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by 2037, a devastating earthquake has hit the west coast of the United States ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2037-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will not be an active prediction registry in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-23.
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“within 15 years, Google will be buying what is left of Oracle” —imbcmdth ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-22; known on 2025-09-22.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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“10^18 FLOPS by 2020” —Shane Legg ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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“By 2050 Baidu.com will surpass Google.com and become world's number 1 search engine.” —Yan Bashkin ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-30; known on 2050-01-01.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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“By December 31, 2020, synthetic solar energy (fusion) will have been shown to be a technically feasible method of electrical power generation, by an experiment demonstrating a controlled fusion reaction producing more harnessable energy than was used to ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-28; known on 2020-12-31.
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A state will try to secede from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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There will be an armed insurrection in the US involving >1000 combatants. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Automated machines for custom shoes in widespread use. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month…in 2020” —magfrump ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2021-09-05.
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“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.
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“there is a student at 75% or so of high schools in 2020 that will take bets on future predictions on any subject” —magfrump ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-12-31.
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“Within ten years there will be another $200 billion+ Wall Street Bailout” —James Miller ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the U.S. repudiates its debt either officially or with an inflation rate of over 100% for one year” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.
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“The president (or some other position selected through open elections) is the highest position in the Iranian state” —Jack ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2020 open elections are held for the Iranian presidency (no significant factions excluded from participation)” —Jack ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Conditional on a cap-and-trade scheme passing, US CO2 emissions in 2019 will be >=%95 2008. —Jack ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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“By 2020 some kind of CO2 emissions regulation (cap and trade) will be in place in the US” —Jack ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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“By 2020, an Earth-like habitable extrasolar planet is detected.” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-07.
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Lindsay Lohan will die before 50 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jande417 on 2010-08-19; known on 2040-08-19.
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A general-purpose artificial intelligence comparable to or better than a human will not have been developed by the beginning of 2020. ( 82% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by MultiplyByZer0 on 2020-06-12.
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“I am 99% confident that AGI [AI] comparable to or better than a human, friendly or otherwise, will not be developed in the next ten years.” —Richard Kennaway ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Food will be commercially synthesized from chemical stocks like coal or atmospheric nitrogen. —J.B.S. Haldane ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2043-01-01.
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“in the year 2020, we're not even close to the kind of disaster you describe – a convergence of three disasters: global currency collapse, significant warfare between rich and poor, and environmental disasters of some significant size. We won't even be cl ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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“We will end the decade with some mobile [electronics] energy storage system with an energy density close to or better than fat metabolism.” —W.H. Pearson ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“energy consumption will grow on a par or less than population growth.” —W.H. Pearson ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“the largest area of impact from technological change over the next decade will come from increasing communications bandwidth.” —Michael Vassar ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
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“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.
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“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“advances in personal aviation will cause the cost of land in big sur, ca and other remote areas within 250mi of major metropolitan cities to at least triple within the next 15 years – outperforming the s&p 500 over that period.” ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-01-01.
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“By 2025, The Aether Physics Model will not have replaced quantum physics and the theory of relativity as the standard model.” ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Stellar nucleosynthesis will no longer be considered as the main source of heat and light of stars by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, The giant impact hypothesis will no longer be the dominant scientific hypothesis for the formation of the Moon.” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Quantum field theory will no longer be part of The Standard Model of particle physics.” ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By 2025, Albert Einstein's theory of relativity will be considered an untenable explanation for light and gravity by a majority of scientists.” ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“By 2025, new astronomical observations and theories will render the Big Bang an untenable explanation for the origin of the Universe.” ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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“I predict that THE HUMAN KNOWLEDGE MINDMAP will become the globally dominant knowledge paradigm by the year 2100.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2100-01-01.
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“There will be a casino on the moon by 2040.” ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called “Hello, world!”, will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-06-08.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“Roe v. Wade will not celebrate a 50th anniversary.” ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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“Self-replicating manufacturing machines will be commonplace by 2020.” ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Patents will be abolished by at least two leading economies within the next 20 years for all areas except pharmaceuticals.” ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2023-12-31.
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“By 2061 science and technology will meet all the essential requirements for interstellar space travel based on the embryo space colonization concept; the core element of this prediction is the cryopreservation of human embryos allowing them to survive fo ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2061-01-01.
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China will land a man on Mars by 2050. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“That the average level of innovation between 2025 and 2035 exceeds the average level of innovation of the past 5 years (2002-2007.) I suggest using metrics as determined and published by the US Dept of Commerce, Economics & Statistics Administration as d ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2036-01-01.
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“No human will set his or her foot on Mars and return safely to earth before 2050.” ( 41% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2020, historians will agree that the the start of the 21st century also marked the beginning of the “Second” or “New Renaissance.”” ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2025, the very first human being will be cloned and this event will be accepted by the most people.” ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2035-01-01.