Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 15 |
Displaying all predictions made by argothiel. Filter by:
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We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.
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CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.
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Nuclear war in 25 years. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by argothiel on 2015-03-04; known on 2040-03-16.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.