Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Bellingcat releases a report on the suspected identity of QAnon (aka Q) within five months ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2020-12-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-05-12.
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We will walk out of doctor’s appointment after 3 pm ( 60% confidence )
Created by Yitz on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-11; judged right by Yitz on 2021-05-12.
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Personal, Productivity – I do practice question for Chapter 9 of CtCI by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-11; known on 2021-05-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-11.
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Personal, Productivity – I read, make Anki cards for (if appropriate), and do a practice question session for C6 of Cracking the Coding Interview. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-07.
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Facebook's Oversight Board will rule to reinstate Donald Trump's account ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-05-05; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for C5 of my book by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-04; known on 2021-05-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I read chapters 4 and 5 and make Anki cards as appropriate before deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-02; known on 2021-05-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for (if necessary) chapter 3 of my book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-03.
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I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.
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Politics – US withdraws all troops from Afghanistan by 1st of May 2021. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-02.
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The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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The AstraZeneca vaccine will receive an EUA for use in the US by May 1st ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.
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The study of Hölscher will show that at in Munich max 5 times as many people are infected with Covid-19 than positive tests showed. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-24; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Germany's CDU/CSU will choose Armin Laschet as chancellor candidate before May ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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James Bond No Time to Die is released in April ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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Politics, Europe – EU or a member state thereof restricts export of Pfizer vaccines, to the UK, with a justification relating to the UK not exporting enough AZ vaccine to the EU or a member state thereof, by end of April 2021. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-17; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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Personal, Productivity – I go through Chapter 2 of book by deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-05-01.
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Hungary will open its borders back ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by MartaK on 2020-10-30; known on 2021-04-30; judged wrong by MartaK on 2021-04-30.
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I get a COVID vaccine before the end of April ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-03; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-04-30.
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I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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Ludovico Einaudi will still be my favourite composer five years from now. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Ian Khama ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] Patrice Trovoada ( 2% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] someone other than Ian Khama or Patrice Trovoada ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The 2021 Ibrahim Prize will go to] nobody ( 92% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-06-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 1.25M ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 750k ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 400k ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 200k ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 100k ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 50k ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-04-30.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Personal, Productivity – I do another interview prep practice session by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-04-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-24.
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Politics, US – Derek Chauvin convicted of any homicide charge (either murder or manslaughter) by 1st of June 2021. ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-04-23.
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News, UK – “suspicious object” at Seafield recycling center is not a functional explosive. Decides unknown if no resolving news by deadline. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-22; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-04-22.
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I (a VA resident in phase 1c) will receive my first vaccine dose on or before April 22. ( 25% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2021-03-30; known on 2021-04-22; judged right by dmwit on 2021-04-22.
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Gold reaches range $800~900/oz by 04/21/2021 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-22; known on 2021-04-21; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-04-21.
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Derek Chauvin will not be found guilty of murder / murder charges will be dropped (w.r.t George Floyd case). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by galaga on 2020-08-03; known on 2021-10-03; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-04-21.
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AR glasses announced at Apple Event ( 10% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Apple TV announced at Apple Event ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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AirTags announced at Apple Event ( 75% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iMac with Apple Silicon announced at Apple Event ( 40% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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iPad Pro w/ MiniLED announced at Apple Event ( 90% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-04-20; known on 2021-04-20; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-04-20.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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The Super Mario Bros. Any% record will be above 4:55:000 on 31st December 2022. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by The_Offwo on 2020-03-09; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by The_Offwo on 2021-04-20.
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Germanys GDP (BIP) decreases by at least 4% in 2020 (like in 2009 finance crisis) ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged right by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-04-18.