Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 63% | 43% | 49% | 51% | 71% | |
Sample Size | 18 | 16 | 28 | 37 | 96 | 190 | 385 |
Displaying all predictions made by Raahul_Kumar. Filter by:
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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The spot price of NYMEX crude oil will be $100/barrel or higher on December 31, 2015. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-31.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.