Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be 0.2 degrees celsius (or more) higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2019 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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r.org will reach 100,000 pageviews a week at least once before the end of 2010 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Frank on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by Frank on 2011-01-02.
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“Global Average Temperature for 2010 to be higher than for 2009” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-05.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2014 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2013 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-05.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2012 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2013-01-02; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 96% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-02; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-02.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2010 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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“…a consensus emerged that there is a better than 50 percent chance that Israel will launch a strike by next July.” —Jeffrey Goldberg ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2011-07-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-31.
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“Before the holidays, Amazon will cut the price of the Wi-Fi Kindle to $99, and the 3G version will go for $150 or less.” —Farhad Manjoo ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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U.S. equities will return 1.8% 2010-2020. —Smithers & Co. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 30 Jun 2011 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-19.
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“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to any other company or companies” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
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“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Northrop Grumman and/or Airbus” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
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“US Air Force to award contract for new aerial refuelling tankers to Boeing” —Intrade ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2015-12-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.
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“AIG to repay all TARP funds by midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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The Terrafugia company will begin selling the Transition flying car to private individuals as a street-legal and air-legal vehicle in the United States by the end of 2011. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hmadison on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Dell's cheapest computer costs $379 (with a monitor) … in another five years, computers will be one-fourth their current price.” —Jakob Nielsen ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-20.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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“In two years, unemployment in Sweden will have risen to 12 percent.” —Anders Borg ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2011-04-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-02.
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“We're forecasting real GDP growth of 3.2 percent for 2010 as a whole, and more robust growth in 2011, 2012 and 2013.” —Christie Romer ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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“In five years, oil will be uncompetitive with biofuel, even at $50 per barrel, though oil will take longer to decline in price.” —Vinod Khosla ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2014-04-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-04-04.
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“It’s my prediction that by 2015, we will have an LTE network that will cover most of the important places in the world and that will give us the coverage and capacity we need” —Anssi Vanjoki ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“For all practical purposes, the Mexican state won’t survive to see 2012.” —Jeff Vail ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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The population of Iowa will first vote on a constitutional amendment to ban gay marriage in 2012; when they do, the vote will be a tossup. In 2013, the ban would fail. —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by gimpf on 2010-12-12.
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“Holden will be the first car-maker to close its Australian factories during the current recession.” —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Australia will not have car factories by the end of the current recession. —Clive Matthew-Wilson ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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By 2011, no major Iranian faction or political leader will publicly endorse testing a nuclear weapon. —Bruce Buena de Mesquita ( 15% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by fergus on 2011-09-17.
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“[I]t's virtually impossible to imagine taxes on the wealthy [implicitly defined as either income > US$250k or income > US$1m in 2009 dollars] not having been increased substantially by the time Obama's four years in office are up.” —Nate Silver ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2012-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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Iran will not produce a nuclear bomb before the end of 2010. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Moneyed interests and will become the increasingly dominant force in Iranian politics, while Ahmadinejad will lose influence and the mullahs will become slightly more influential. —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-06-27.
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“[Peter] Schiff sees a multiyear recession ahead marked by rampant inflation, a steadily weakening dollar, soaring commodities prices, slumping U.S. stock indexes, and falling wages.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2011-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-10.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.
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North Korea's President Kim Jong-il's goal is to stabilize it's position in the world before he announces his resignation and appoints his 26 year old son to the presidency. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by CRNewsReports© on 2009-06-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-19.
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Micheal Jackson is pulling a Tupac ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by melmel on 2010-02-10; known on 2013-02-10; judged wrong by procran on 2013-02-12.
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Miley Cyrus will fade out of the spotlight in 2 years with the cut from Hannah Montana ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-10.
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The world will not end in 2012 ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kimmjaynedowling on 2010-02-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“Five years from now on the web for free you’ll be able to find the best lectures in the world. It will be better than any single university.” —Bill Gates ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-07; known on 2015-08-06; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-30.
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“NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now.” —Michael Wolff ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-21.
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“About 18 months from now, 80 percent of newspapers will be gone.” —Michael Wolff ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-05-01.
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“There will be no significant newspapers printed on newsprint in the US by 2012.” (By significant, he seems to mean major market with a traditionally wide circulation.) —Seth Godin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“United Airlines will merge with a competitor and the brand will disappear” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Chrysler brand will be discontinued, Jeep & Dodge will remain” —Douglas McIntyre ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Architectural Digest Magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Gap will close Old Navy” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Esquire magazine will fold” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“GM will close the Saturn brand” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“The Budget car rental brand will be eliminated in favor of Avis” —Douglas A. McIntyre ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“The Obama administration will propose a Federal consumption tax, such as a VAT. “I don't think it will be very soon, but it will be within eight years' time.”" —Tyler Cowen ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2017-04-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-12.
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“Technical analyst Robert Prechter on Monday said he sees the United States losing its top AAA credit rating by the end of 2010, as he stuck by a deeply bearish outlook on the U.S. economy and stock market.” ( 5% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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Microsoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Regarding access to the Internet: “Here's a prediction: in five years, a UN convention will enshrine network access as a human right.”" —Cory Doctorow ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-05-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-05-31.
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“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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“the Apple tablet will be a flop next year” —Scott Moritz ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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“The airline industry, of course, will be toast inside of five years.” —James Howard Kunstler ( 10% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2014-06-10; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-25.
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“The Mediterranean bluefin breeding population will disappear by 2012 under the current fishing regime.” —Sergi Tudela ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“At least one serious contender for the Republican nomination in 2012 will be someone newly elected to his or her state's governorship in 2010.” —Nate Silver ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-03-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-03.
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“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
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“EY predicts that no five-sigma evidence of any Higgs boson will appear in the 2014 Review of Particle Physics.” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-07-05.
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“10 or more people will be killed on US soil, or on a flight to or from the US, during 2010 as the result of a deliberate attack by a party with a political goal, not overtly the act of any state” ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
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“Potential GDP growth might also take a hit, falling from around 2.8% during 1997-2008 to around 2.25% in the coming years.” —Nouriel Roubini ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-27.
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“Crude oil may plunge to less than $10 a barrel in the next decade after surging to a record $147 last year” —Robert Prechter ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“10 startups i think will be acquired soon: evernote, posterous/tumblr, twitter, animoto, tweetdeck/seesmic, stardoll, etsy, apture. agree?” —Ouriel Odhayon ( 0% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-08-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-08-10.
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“I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin.” —Michael Scalisi ( 0% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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“Microsoft will no longer have the majority market share in 24 months” —Beth Lynn Eicher ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-07-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-07.
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“Iran will have mastered the generation of energy-grade nuclear material by early 2011, and given up on development of nuclear bombs in favor of civilian nuclear energy.” —Bruce Bueno de Mesquita ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2011-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-28.
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“I expect that, at least for the seven lean years and perhaps longer, the developed world will have to settle for about 2% real GDP growth (perhaps 2.25%) down from the 3.5% to which we used to aspire in the last 30 years.” —Jeremy Grantham ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2016-03-07; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-08.
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By 2020, MS's Bing will have 25% of the American search market (from 13% in 2010). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2012, current venture capital- and privately-funded methods of DNA sequencing, independent of any additional “incremental improvements” will be made obsolete by the technology described in The Economist (October 25th – 31st 2008; US print edition, p.8 ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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“Somewhere before 2050 abortion on request and/or for socio-economic factors will be illegal worldwide.” ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2013 eBay will either (1) rename itself Paypal, or (2) spin Paypal out.” ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“By 2015 more internet requests will originate from mobile phones and other types of embedded devices than from desktop and laptop personal computers.” ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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“By 2014 Twitter like products coupled with person mounted video cameras will allow people to lifecast every moment of their daily experience. Others in the community of users will be able to subscribe to the lives of those they wish to follow.” ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.
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“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.
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“Human population of the world will peak at or below 8 billion in the 2040s and then drop dramatically.” ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2049-12-31.
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“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2020, GE crops will be grown on 10 fold more acreage than they are today, will be widely accepted by consumers and will have clearly benefited the goals of sustainable agriculture” ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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“The End of Wheels: A country or state will ban the use of wheeled vehicles by private consumers on high capacity public roads.” ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The Iraqi Dinar will revalue, and reach a value of 3 Dinars per 1 U.S. dollar, or better, by November 6/2013. Currently, as of November 6/08, the exchange rate is 1176 Iraqi Dinars, per U.S. dollar.” ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-11-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-06.