Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Sinnoh Remakes ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Let's Go Johto ( 25% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon Snap Release Date ( 50% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.
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[Self] I have meditated at least 11 of 14 days from now until March ( 50% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2021-02-26.
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New Shepard to fly at least once in 2021. ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-02-25.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.
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DOGE reaches 0.25 USD before 2021-02-14 ( 65% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by technillogue on 2021-02-24.
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I receive a job offer from radix.bio ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technillogue on 2020-12-10; known on 2021-01-31; judged right by technillogue on 2021-02-24.
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Will talk with Mali today ( 85% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
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Everyone will be at the EA meeting tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-17; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-23.
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Scott Alexander starts a Substack in 2021. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
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1 million first doses of COVID administered in NY as of February 1st, 2021 (as measured by COVID tracking project: https://covid19-projections.com/infections/ or an alternative if this goes away). ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2021-02-24; judged right by krazemon on 2021-02-23.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-02-22.
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I will weigh 205 or more in the morning ( 75% confidence )
Created by pdf on 2020-09-25; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by pdf on 2021-02-22.
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Germanys unemployment rate will be above 5.6% at the end of 2020 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-06-10; known on 2021-01-04; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-02-21.
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COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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COVID, US – At least 53M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Kim Kardashian and Kanye West will separate within two years. ( 67% confidence )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-23; known on 2022-07-23; judged right by JohnGreer on 2021-02-20.
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Greater Melbourne area (or any part) will come out of stage 4 lockdown at or before 11.59pm on Wednesday 17 Feb 2021 ( 20% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-02-12; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I get all my Anki cards done by deadline. ( 77% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-17; known on 2021-02-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-17.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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bitcoin worth less than 44k in 1 week ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-15; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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Abi and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 99% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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Josh and I will still be good friends next month (talk at least once this month) ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-16.
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DOGE reaches $1 USD before 2021-02-14 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by azatris on 2021-02-15.
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CPC implements UBI ( 24% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-04; known on 2021-02-04; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-02-15.
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Won't get the first EA Speaker I emailed ( 90% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-14.
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Teddy will go to Annisquam ( 80% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-02-14; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-14.
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Personal, Productivity – I read through a chapter of the Moral Uncertainty book by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-11; known on 2021-02-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-12.
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I will make an appointment/ask to make an appointment with a therapist by 15th Feb 2021 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-02-11.
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I'm going to strength train (in the sense of completing 5 sets of some barbell exercise), when I wake up tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-10.
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Talk with Natalie tonight ( 20% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2021-02-08; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-02-08.
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Land a kickflip today ( 60% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-06; known on 2021-02-07; judged right by htaussig on 2021-02-07.
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Personal, Productivity – I do two hours work for G by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-06.
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I'll still be sitting in this room in 1 minute. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-05; known on 2021-02-05; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-02-05.
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Personal, Productivity – I order replacement glasses by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-03; known on 2021-02-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-03.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Open table D&D game still going reasonably well in six months ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-02-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I sort out my wall calendar's labels by deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-01; known on 2021-02-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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Donald Trump will win the electoral college votes ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-16; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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President Trump will stand down from the presidential office ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by BillEBrogan on 2020-11-12; known on 2020-11-13; judged right by Liging on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – At least ten million doses of vaccine have been administered before the end of January 2021 in the UK. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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COVID, UK – Scotland has a return to in-person education in schools before the start of February. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-02-01.
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I will publish a paper this year ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will see my grandmother in person this year ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged right by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will see my sister in person this year ( 75% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-12-29; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.
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I will graduate in the end of the year ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by fandangos on 2021-02-01.