Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Neville/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Neville/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Ron will not be involved in any romantic relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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If the Public Option passes, it will cost at least $400/month for the 25-35 bracket to join it by a year after it opens. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.
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HP MoR: Harry had a hand in the disappearance of Hermione's corpse. ( 80% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-06-23; judged right by Roxolan on 2015-03-01.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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HP MoR: Sirius is not in Azkaban, and his replacement is Fudge ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-10; known on 2015-03-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-10.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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HP MoR: Before Quirrell strengthened the security on the Restricted section, Harry used Library magic to collate information on Horcruxes from scattered tales ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Horcrux hijinks made Amycus Carrow go slightly Voldemorty ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by solipsist on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Mt. Gox “strategy” document is not a hoax ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kiba on 2014-02-25; known on 2014-03-27; judged right by gwern on 2014-02-25.
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Agora marketplace will be severely hacked or taken down within a week. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-24; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-03.
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MtGox is insolvent. It currently holds less bitcoins or USD than the total sum of money shown to be deposited in it. ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-07-14; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-28.
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McCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold Magic cards. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-02-17.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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Amanda Knox will be found guilty by the Italian Supreme Court. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2015-05-04.
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Contingent on losing her appeal, Amanda Knox will be extradited to Italy to serve her sentence. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-31; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by lettergram on 2020-11-05.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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GSoC 2013: “Haddock extension for Pandoc compatibility” ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01.
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Pandora Market will shut down / disable withdrawals within the next week. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-15.
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The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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I will switch from Mnemosyne to Anki by 2014. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-02.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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cryptsy will stop all withdrawals for at least 24 hours, before 2014 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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BMR will shut down within a month. ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-13.
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Sheep will shut down within a month. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-12; known on 2013-12-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-04.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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I will be accepted for a postdoc position by June 1 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-06-01.
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Bitcoin goes below $600 in the next 30 days. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-12-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Chicago-area will not have a white (1 inch of snow or greater) Christmas. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-26.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
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Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
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Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 750-1000$ (mtgox prices) ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 150-349$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: > 2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 1000-2000$ (mtgox prices) ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 550-749$ (mtgox prices) ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2014-01-01.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 350-549$ (mtgox prices) ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: 50-149$ (mtgox prices) ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Bitcoin price on 2014-01-01: < 50$ (mtgox prices) ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2013-12-31.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 1 year. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2014-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-24.
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Assassination Market will still be up in 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-20.
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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 1 year ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Zerocoin as functioning altcoin network within a year ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2014-11-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-11-23.
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Bitcoin falls to a value of less than 1$ per Bitcoin by the end of 2014. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin suffers a crash by the end of 2014, defined as falling to below 20% of its all-time high. (prediction inspired by http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/1qvbzk/bloomberg_us_agencies_to_say_bitcoins_offer/cdh3ty2 ) ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-11-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.
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Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The price of one bitcoin on MtGox goes above $500 at some point before end of November 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-15; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by tedks on 2013-11-17.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-12.
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I will visit Spain before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Intrade will be open for business by 31 December 2014 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by najdorf on 2014-12-31.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
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I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
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Sheep will not be operating in 12 months ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.
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Sheep Marketplace will not be operating in 6 months ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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BMR will not be operating in 12 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-30.
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BMR will not be operating in 6 months ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-30; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2014-04-30.
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a year. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2014-10-17; judged right by Grognor on 2014-08-20.