Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by evand. Filter by:
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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RSA-260 factored by 2021-05-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 40% confidence )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by evand on 2021-06-27.
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GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
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Amash gets the R nomination in 2020, conditional on Trump not getting it. ( 2% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-05-09; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by evand on 2020-11-16.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test ( 50% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-04-27; judged right by evand on 2020-05-09.
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'bitcoins will be unobtainable or obtainable for less than 1 cents (2010 dollars)/btc on 24 February 2021' —ivan ( 45% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-24; known on 2021-02-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-02-25.