Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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No terrorist attack causes >100 deaths in the developed world in 2017 (HDI > 0.8). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2018-01-03.
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SpaceX will launch a Falcon Heavy before the end of 2017. Any launch leaving the ground satisfies this, even if it fails during ascent, or carries only a test payload. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Legitimate 512 GB USB flash drives will be available on Amazon from at least two different reputable sellers for less than $100 per drive by January 1, 2018. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-03.
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Trump tweeting frequency drops to < 1/week in the month after his inauguration (month of January 21st to February 21st) ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-19; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-31.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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0 US combat deaths, either US or enemy, after Donald Trump gets elected. US at peace with the world ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-28.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will meet anyone in-person via okcupid, before 2018 ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will do most of my programming in Elixir in 2017 ( 84% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Berlin truck driver is muslim ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-12-19; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-12-24.
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1px borders still look good (always rendered as 1px) in non-integer-scaled Chrome in both 56 beta and 57 unstable, as of today ( 87% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18; known on 2016-12-19; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-18.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Replacement 24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will have >= 0.1 more accurate gamma ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Replacement Dell 24" G-SYNC monitor will have the same vertical-striping issue ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-09; known on 2017-01-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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My configuration management system will be deployed on at least one server before 2017 ( 91% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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24" Dell G-SYNC monitor will be returned before 2017-01-15 ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2017-01-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-03.
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I will have sex with a woman (IQ>137, non-US born) at the Envision Conference in Princeton ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2016-11-28; known on 2016-12-06; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2016-12-06.
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Refurbished iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-29 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-20; known on 2016-11-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-24.
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I will see fm this winter ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-16; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Used iPad mini 4 will be returned before 2016-11-23 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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Cisco switch will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Samsung 850 EVO will not be returned before 2017-02-01 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-31.
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Second Dell server will not need to be returned within a week ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-23.
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rn will respond before 2016-11-22 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15; known on 2016-11-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-22.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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I will receive a new passport before 2017-01-20 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-26.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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All three of my Amazon orders arrive before 8pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-10.
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US goes to Defcon 1, by 13:00 EST nov 8, 2016 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.
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Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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I will match with anyone on Tinder who I can confirm is not a robot or scam or spam, before 2017 ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-06.
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I will meet IRL anyone found via Tinder, before 2017 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Kim Dotcom will release (either directly or through WikiLeaks or another party) at least 3,000 new and legitimate Hillary Clinton emails, before election day ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-26; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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Humans to land on Mars by November 24, 2046 ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-24; known on 2046-11-24.
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My configuration manager will be deployed on at least one server before 2016-11-15 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-24; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15.
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08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-21.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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PSA: There is an index of all public predictions at http://pbindex.neocities.org/ ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-10-07.
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I will visit Japan before 2019 ( 38% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will visit Japan before 2018 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2020 ( 19% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2019 ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2018 ( 4% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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zfsonlinux/zfs@master will support online defragmentation of ZFS pools before 2017 ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Magic Leap's AR device is available for immediate shipment to the general public before 2017-06-01 ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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I will buy an iPhone for my own use before 2018 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will have > 2000 lines of Elixir code before 2017 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-29.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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Before 2019, Apple will announce a product that lets you dock/connect an iPhone to a desktop/laptop monitor + keyboard and use it like a desktop or laptop computer ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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California will vote “yes” on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-06-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will switch back to Firefox for my primary web browser on my desktop or laptop before 2017-07-01 ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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I will not watch any new episodes of Dark Matter before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-21.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.
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Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
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Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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At least one flagship iPhone model announced in 2016 will have a 3.5mm headphone jack on the body of the phone ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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The GOP will win under 370 electoral votes in the 2016 presidential election ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.