Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 |
Displaying all predictions made by amrav. Filter by:
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At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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RM Team switch by 18 Nov 2018. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amrav on 2017-11-19; known on 2018-11-18.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.