Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Legal battles over forehead penises, and the rights of the young rebels who choose to have them, begin. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-09-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-01.
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Marijuana decriminalized in canada in 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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C++17 released ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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My brother quits / is fired from his new job for what I determine to be BS reasons ( 90% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2019-09-01.
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Libertarian Party candidate gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Hillary Clinton will win the presidential election ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ytarko on 2016-09-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by bendini on 2016-11-09.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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throughout dec 2017, bitcoin officially banned in russia ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01.
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'Islands in the Net' style skin-browning agent made possible through PCR ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2033-01-01.
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>1.561% of global energy use for 2017 will be solar according to IEA ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2018-09-01.
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I will not watch any new episodes of Dark Matter before 2017 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Provably intelligent life (was) on HD164595 ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30; known on 2397-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01.
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There will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-07.
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Some technology invented after 2017 that actually scares me. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2022-12-31.
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China overtakes EU (Whatever's left of it) in at least 2 of the 3 of: GDP, math PhDs/year, cheesecake produced / capita. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-12-31.
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61%+ unemployment, 96%+ water unsafe, over 75k homeless, over 50% of them children, <6 hours/day of electricity in gaza (at least 3 of the above) ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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HRC wins at least one of the following: AZ, GA, MO, MT, SC. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-28; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Gary Johnson gets into 2020 presidential debates. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Gary Johnson wins 2020 presidential election. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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hillary clinton wins the US presidential race ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jal278 on 2016-08-23; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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I will buy an NVIDIA graphics card before 2018 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-21.
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Barack Obama will start serving a consecutive third term as President of the United States, or otherwise remain in office as President on March 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-02.
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Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.
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Throughout 2020, 100% of movies to come out of hollywood will be reboots of old series, only with the genders swapped ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-10.
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Federal government of Canada passes law banning encryption use ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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Federal government of Canada passes law mandating divulging passwords ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-20; known on 2021-01-01.
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someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-12.
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this computer will boot after successful upgrade from ubuntu 15.10 to 16.04 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-08-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the United States' Presidential race ( 67% confidence; 15 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BigRaims on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-07-16.
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'weapons of financial mass destruction' trigger collapse in 2017, causing widespread market panic/crisis ( 36% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary wins South Carolina ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins Georgia ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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weather will be shit today when I'm walking ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-08-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10.
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Hillary Clinton will win Utah ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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The winner of the 2016 presidential election will recieve over 400 EVs ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Clinton wins entire eastern seaboard from Maine to Florida. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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There will be at least five polls between the DNC and 2017 where Clinton beats Trump by at least ten points. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-08-06; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The Republican Party wins AZ in the 2016 presidential election ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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The Democratic Party wins NC in the 2016 presidential election ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-08-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump will not lead Clinton in the RCP average by more than 5% at any point in the 2016 election. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-01; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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If the Republican convention goes to the second ballot, Ted Cruz will secure the nomination ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-08-01.
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Attention Deficit Disorder more prevalent in hacker community(based on multiple, broad criteria) than baseline at a statistically significant level (at least in 2010s) ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-21.
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At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2022-05-16.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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this prediction should definitely break then > _ > ( 52% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31.
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Hillary Clinton beats Donald Trump in the 2016 presidential election. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by robirahman on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton wins election. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by matuschoma on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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cd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9 ( 74% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-02.
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benadryl 'coma' this weekend due to cleaning cat area ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01.
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this prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d: ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.
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this prediction will break > ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.
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[from tue jul 26 until jul 26 or whenever either fork ends] linear regression( abs(ETH_day[i] – ETC_day[i])),(ETC_day[i]+ETH_day[i])/bitcoin_day[i] ) slope is negative and r > 0.5 ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-23.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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WWIII will include Turkey as a participant ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Russian boots on the ground in active combat operations in Lithuania ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Russian troops boots on the ground in Estonia in active combat operations ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Eastern Latvia becomes its own country/Latvia splits into at least 2 countries ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Russian “peacekeepers” on the ground in Latvia ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Uprising/civil strife/coup/etc in latvia makes international headlines ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2021-07-24; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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Le Pen elected president of france 2017 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-07.
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Clinton elected and US civil war ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% in five national polls. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton elected AND nuclear war involving the US during her reign ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on border checkpoints being set up along the UK-Ireland border, there will be an attack on the checkpoints or border guards ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16.
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Theresa May triggers Article 50 without the explicit support of Sturgeon, the Scottish parliament, or a second referendum ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.
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Border checkpoints will be set up along the UK/Ireland land border by 2020 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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I will pass my exams ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Shekerev on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-10-16.
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I will get 8 hours of sleep tonight ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-22.
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A working, playable game will result from this week ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-19; known on 2016-07-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Conditional on the UK Government under Theresa May seeking to invoke Article 50 on the Lisbon Treaty, it will have to be passed through Parliament before being invoked. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-12-31.
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Mia Love will be re-elected to the House of Representatives from Utah's 4th district ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-11-10.
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Merrick Garland will fill Scalia's SCOTUS seat ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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Democrats win undivided control of government in 2016 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-09.
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Undivided government under the Republicans after 2016 ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-03-29.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Government of United Kingdom has notified European Union of its intent to withdraw from Union as per article 50 para 2 of the Treaty on European Union. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-01.
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A third party candidate will not participate in a presidential debate ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-08.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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Dissident Irish republican groups launch an attack killing more than 5 people by the end of 2018 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-11; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.