Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-11-29.
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Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.
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Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.
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more storms today in #tbay ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-22; known on 2017-09-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23.
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living things in Gliese 581g system as of past 20 years ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2400-01-01.
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Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by timmartin on 2018-01-04.
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End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-09-24; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24.
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Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2027-09-21.
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Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2067-09-21.
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news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged wrong by regex on 2017-10-28.
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at least 1 death at the march tomorrow ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2017-09-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-17.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance ) ( 40% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) ( 33% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.
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[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.
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S.M. is gay ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-10; known on 2027-09-01.
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Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable ( 87% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09; known on 2018-05-01.
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1.39$/L gas in tbay ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-08; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.
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[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.
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[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.
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Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of September 2017 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-04; known on 2017-10-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-15.
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US President Zuckerberg ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-03; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-12-03.
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James Damore running his own business ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2018-03-03; judged wrong by colejhudson on 2018-03-14.
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texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant ( 81% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2027-09-04.
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“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.
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s is running an old youtube-dl ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-08.
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The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-01-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-12-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Stormfront comes back up ( 49% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2018-06-16.
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Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-08-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-27.
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Trump pardons Sheriff Joe Arpaio ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-23; known on 2018-08-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.
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The first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-08-21.
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Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-28; known on 2025-01-28.
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Functional Jubilee in the US ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-02-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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#personal If I try psychotherapy in the next 1 months, I will think it's been time and money and other resources well pent ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16.
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Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Sargon of Akkad gets cut from youtube ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-08-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.
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Charlottesville car admits to being a conservative ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-10.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-08-31.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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The company I am interning at will try to hire me. (if they ask me whether I want to work for them and I say no, it still counts) ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-07.
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Terrorism in the Middle East Will Decline By Half By 2040. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-08-08; known on 2040-12-16.
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Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13.
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The sun will explode. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by tfcd1200 on 2017-08-07; known on 2017-08-08; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-08-08.
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US Navy conducts a freedom of navigation operation (FONOP) in the South China Sea within 30 days ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-05; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-10.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2019 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2019-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-12-30.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2018-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-01-07.
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Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2028-06-01.
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Arianespace Vega Aug. 1 or 2 Optsat 3000 & Venus launches successfully ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-02.
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GoT: Glevba naq Wnvzr ner erirnyrq gb unir orra pbafcvevat gbtrgure. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-07-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2017-08-28.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.