Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by MattG. Filter by:
-
I will quit my day job this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-12-31.
-
“People Will Spend the Majority of Waking Time in Virtual Reality by 2020” – Zack Kanter (http://goo.gl/ZlE6LS), taken to mean that the majority of Americans' waking hours will be spent in virtual reality in the year 2020 (not including augmented reality) ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-29; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
SMR's first product will launch sometime between October 2014, and October, 2015 ( 70% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by MattG on 2015-10-31.
-
The SMR Email list will be somewhere between 300 and 1000 subscribers on January 1st 2015 ( 90% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.
-
The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th 2014 and January 30th, 2015 ( 90% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2015-01-30; judged right by MattG on 2015-01-30.
-
The SMR email list will reach 300 subscribers between September 16th and January 30th, 2014 ( 90% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-01-30.
-
A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
-
The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
-
Eliezer will state that he has finished writing HPMOR by the end of 2014. ( 33% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.