Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
Displaying all predictions made by Smaug. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is Voldemort, but not Quirrel ( 23% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-03-16; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Bitcoin <$230 on Bitstamp at the start of 1 December 2013 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-17; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-01.
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Ender's Game will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 122.6m) ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-12-01.