Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 100% | 67% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 16 | 0 | 31 |
Displaying all predictions made by fork. Filter by:
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The LHC will not make any new major discoveries until the end of 2012. ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Arets Paeglis on 2012-12-01; known on 2013-01-05; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-05.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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Herman Cain is an “art project” as described by Rachel Maddow. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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Rua will defeat Henderson at UFC 139. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-11-19; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20.
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Dexter season 6: Deb will find out (or already knows) that Dexter is a killer. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-14; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-19.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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The Republicans to control the House of Representatives after 2012 Congressional Elections – Intrade ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Jack & Jill will earn 150% of its budget despite being a terrible film. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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Steam or Origin will offer a cloud based gaming solution ala onlive.com by 2015. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-14.
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AZEALIA BANKS – 212 FT. LAZY JAY will reach 5 million youtube views by the end of 2012. ( 70% confidence )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by fork on 2012-05-02.
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Dexter season 6: Prof. Gellar is a hallucination, similar to Dexter's dad. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2011-12-18; judged right by fork on 2011-11-28.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.