Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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Trump reelected in 2024. ( 31% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bsl5265 on 2021-11-08; known on 2024-11-05.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Boris Johnson PM in Jan 2023 ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-07-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by nathanpmyoung on 2023-01-05.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Politics, Finland – Finland starts process to join NATO by end of 2022 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Portuguese government still provides free Covid vaccines by 1st Nov 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LouisLC on 2022-05-14; known on 2022-11-01; judged right by LouisLC on 2022-11-01.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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A bill legalizing abortion in the United States at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-04; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
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World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
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Politics, US – Will the US announce intent to allow any Ukrainian citizen who reach its borders to stay until Russia is no longer attacking or occupying Ukraine, before July 1st 2022? ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.
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Personal, Productivity – I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.
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Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.
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SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01.
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My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-09-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-06.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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COVID, US – By the 30th of June 2021, there are six or more vaccines with FDA authorisation. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-07-01.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Politics, US – By November 2nd, 2020, Twitter temporarily or permanently suspends @realDonaldTrump, or @teamtrump, or @POTUS based on alleged violations of Twitter's Terms of Service ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-09-27; known on 2020-11-02.
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A Trump-nominated Supreme Court Justice is confirmed to replace Ginsburg before the 2020 November election. ( 79% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-10-07; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Deepak on 2020-10-27.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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If Sweden doesn't implement lockdowns, then their per capita coronavirus deaths will exceed the average of the other Nordic countries by 25% or more. ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-07-10; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-11.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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My baby will be walking independently by age 12 months ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2018-02-23; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2018-10-10.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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US government shuts down again sometime in 2018. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-02-09.
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No large-scale deportation of Dreamers. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.
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PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrats take control of the House in midterms. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) is not a scam. ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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One of NASA's 12 new astronauts will go into space before June 12, 2027 ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-06-12; known on 2027-06-12; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-17.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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The total hate crime incidents as measured by the FBI's Uniform Crime Report will be no more than 125% of their 2015 value at any year during a Trump presidency, conditional on similar reporting methodology. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-18; known on 2021-01-02.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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It will be revealed that Trump's goal in running for President was to see Clinton elected, in a kind of false-flag shill operation. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2016-08-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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My PredictionBook score will be higher than the then current site average in one month ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.
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My PredictionBook score will be higher than the current disappointing 1.09 in one month ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2014-05-29; known on 2014-07-06.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.