Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 67% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by JamieDuerden. Filter by:
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Sochi Olympics will not be obvious disaster (ie spectacular violence, protests that utterly overshadow events, or have to be stopped early) ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-24.
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Someone will convince me betting money is an excellent means of epistemic calibration despite the arguments I made in my FB post about it. (OP here https://www.facebook.com/strohl89/posts/10152167620634598?stream_ref=10) ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-25; judged wrong by briennestrohl on 2014-01-25.
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Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-02-18; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-02-20.
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I'll cause at least five people to start using Prediction Book by the end of today. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-21; known on 2014-01-22; judged right by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
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Eliezer will mention/recommend the story “The Last Christmas” in the next Author's Note for HPMOR. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-05; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.