Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Marco Rubio will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any EU member state ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against any member of Nordic Council ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-01.
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Sweden declares war against Norway ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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There will be at least one active probe in Martian orbit or on Mars at least until either January 1, 2050 or until humans visit Mars. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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spacex falcon heavy rocket launch carrying lightsail-1 or 2 or 3 to space will be successful in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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China will fall into disorder and civil war by the end of 2017 ( 6% confidence; 21 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The Chinese economy will completely collapse by 2017. ( 7% confidence; 20 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by chinawillfall on 2016-01-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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SpaceX to recover first stage of an orbital rocket after ocean barge landing in first half of 2016 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
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The Shanghai Composite will fall below 3000 before the end of the week ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-13.
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The VIX index will go above 30 before February 1, 2016 ( 35% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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The Rigs Will Burn! Rigs have fallen by -1029 in just one year according to Baker Hughes as of August 7.There are only 884 rigs left alive. 1 more year of this, and all the rigs will have burned down. Shout Allahu Akbar as Iran delivers Coup de grâce. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-09-28; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-09-28.
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Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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New Mersenne prime to be discovered by January 1, 2020 ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.
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The FANG group will have their valuations cut in half from their 2015 peak. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-12-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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Malheur insurgency to be resolved within a week. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-16.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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[deleted] Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ted Cruz ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-18.
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Oman Crude will trade at an average price of below $30 for the first 6 months of 2016. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.
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By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.
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Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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100% IPV6 deployment by 2020. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2020-12-25; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-01-08.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will not watch any more of The Expanse before 2016-02-09 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-09.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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USA will default on its debt. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2023-12-25.
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France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Australia Federally recognises same-sex marriage on or before 1 January 2017. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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I will watch 75+/-15 movies I haven't seen before in 2016 (i.e. I will have 1064-1094 IMDb votes on 2017-01-01, since I'm starting this year at 1004). ( 48% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-01.
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I will write 3,000+ lines of Rust in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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Indonesia to recognize same sex marriage before January 1, 2017 ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be recognized in Germany by January 1, 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2020-12-25.
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By January 1, 2017, Martin's proof that QMA2 is in EXP will be repaired. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Brazil's GDP will be above its 2014 level in 2018. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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'The East Side Access subway extension opens in New York' in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-02-16.
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“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Ebola epidemic has ended. ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-14.
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2016 predictions: I will end up being underconfident on my 2016 predictions. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: No US politicians will be assassinated. ( 92% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: World War III will happen. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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2016 predictions: I will end the year still living in the Boston area. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will be a vegan at the end of the year. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: Sam will be a vegetarian, pescetarian, or vegan at the end of the year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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2016 predictions: I will not identify as religious by the end of 2016. ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2015-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Sam's stolen phone will be recovered. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-29; known on 2016-01-28; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-28.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
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Magnesium infused with silicon carbide nanoparticles will be used as major structural component for cars by 2025. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Yemen civil war will be won by the Revolutionary Committee, and the Saudi-led Coalition(US,UK) will be defeated. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2024-12-25.
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Iraqi government will liberate Ramadi from Islamic State. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-26; known on 2016-01-12; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-28.
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Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-05.
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75% of the population within Syria's currently recognized borders will be under the direct or indirect control of a single goverment by 2017. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-12-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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The Priv will be the last Blackberry branded phone released by Research in Motion as an independent entity. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by quanticle on 2015-12-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2017-01-02.
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J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican primary will be one of Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, or Huckabee. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-22; known on 2016-01-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30.
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My paper will be accepted to the AISTATS conference. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-12-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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By 2046 0% children under 5 will be underweight globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2046-12-25.
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By 2050 stunting will be at 0% globally. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-21; known on 2050-12-25.
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Amazon will launch a consumer-facing courier service that competes with the likes of UPS and FedEx by 2025. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-12-21; known on 2025-01-01.
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Asia-Pacific surpassed North America with the largest HNWI population (4.69 million versus 4.68 million) and is expected to overtake North America's leading $16.2 trillion in HNWI wealth by the end of the year. Asia-Pacific Wealth Report 2015 (APWR) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-22.
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I will have grades in for all three classes before Tuesday evening. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-20; known on 2015-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Antonio Costa's government won't survive its entire term ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoaoEira on 2015-12-19; known on 2019-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-11-16.
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Ochem and Rao's bound on OPNs to be improved by January 1, 2017. Details in comments. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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150 000 km of National Highways by year end -Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Bharat's defence exports will at least double to Rs1200 Crore. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-29.
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Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
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The Spanish government that is produced by the Spanish general elections 2015 has at least 2 parties. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-03-02.
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In Spanish general elections 2015, PP will get most seats. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-01-14; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-21.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2017 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2017-05-02.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Malnutrition trends in Bharat:By 2022 Wasting will be at 8.2% among under 3 children. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2022-12-25.