Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 40% | 60% | 38% | 53% | 67% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 5 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 6 | 54 |
Displaying all predictions made by Isaac. Filter by:
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I will graduate with a degree in any field other than economics from Washington University in St Louis ( 25% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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I will graduate from Washington University in St Louis with a degree in Economics in 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2017-05-16; judged right by Isaac on 2017-05-24.
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I will receive an economics PhD within the next 10 years ( 20% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2023-05-09.
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I will score over a 2200 on my March 2012 SAT ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-03-20; judged unknown by Isaac on 2013-05-09.
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I will receive my first choice of dorming at Washington University in St Louis ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2013-05-09; known on 2013-08-09; judged wrong by Isaac on 2013-08-09.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Translate will survive 5 years ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Scholar will survive 5 more years ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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I will get over an 80 on my USH test I took last week ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-12-20.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The EU will essentially break up into groups of countries with different worldviews within the next 3 years. Prediction date 2nd November, 2011. ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Fledi on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by mad on 2014-11-02.
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President Barak Obama will be re-elected, the Democrats will retain the Senate, and retake the House of Representatives. This will not prevent a great deal of obstructionism to anything he wants to get passed, particularly in the Senate. ( 30% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by MuscleCBT on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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I will score above an 85 on my USH test ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-13.
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I will get over a 79 on my Biology test ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Isaac on 2011-11-09.
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I will get over a 90 on all 3 of my upcoming tests this week (Math, Biology, US History) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-30; known on 2011-11-20; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-11-20.
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Occupy Wall Street (NYC) will continue at least 30 more days. ( 79% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-23.
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The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.
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I will go to the gym in the next 30 minutes ( 80% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-17; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will go to the gym 3 times by Saturday ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.
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I will go to the gym tomorrow ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-18; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-18.
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I will formally quit Cross Country by the end of the week ( 80% confidence )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-22.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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My practice SAT scores will be high enough that I will be able to confidently take it in January ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Isaac on 2011-12-15.
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A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-16.
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Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-16.
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My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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The personal use of cannabis will be de jure legalized in at least one U.S state by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by roxton on 2013-01-11.
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AOL & Yahoo to merge by 2013. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Ron Paul to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-30.
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“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.
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The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-25.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“I predict that our civilization will survive until at least 2100.” ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.