Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 75% | 50% | 67% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by faul_sname. Filter by:
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50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
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Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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“Polygamy is granted legal status in the US.” ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Obama will not run for a second term. (http://www.wnd.com/index.php?fa=PAGE.view&pageId=312393 ) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-21; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-20.
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Greece will default on its debt before 2011-09-01 00:00 UTC ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-19; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-02.
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Greece Will be Bankrupt within 6 months from today ( 26% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niekjetten on 2011-06-18; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by procran on 2011-12-01.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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Extraterrestrial life will be confirmed on at least one body by 2050. ( 47% confidence; 22 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-09; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will not live to see the apocalypse. ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Sevis on 2011-06-01; known on 2111-06-01.
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Global circumnavigation by solar aircraft ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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In about a year this website will have more then 20 active participants per week. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-31; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-02.
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by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.