Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 66% | 55% | 64% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 62 | 76 | 58 | 62 | 98 | 24 | 380 |
Displaying all predictions made by splorridge. Filter by:
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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WIMPs will be discovered by beginning of 2020. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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John McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2015-09-23; judged right by splorridge on 2015-09-13.
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Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour party until the next general election ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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By January 1, 2017, no unambiguous contact with intelligent extraterrestrials. ( 99% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Jeb Bush will not be elected President of the United States. ( 75% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-06-24; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Jeremy Corbyn will be elected Labour leader. This text has a line through it. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-13.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Alastair will get a hangover from Emma May Ball ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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I won't be able to finish the whole plate of brunch Sam is cooking for me ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Xtobel on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-13; judged wrong by Xtobel on 2015-06-13.
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I will get a first in my degree. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by theboubmeister on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by theboubmeister on 2015-06-18.
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I will weigh 63kg by September ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-09-07.
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I will weigh 64kg by 2016 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-01-02.
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I will get a 2.1 or over in my degree ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
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I will get a 1 in my degree ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
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Jeremy Corbyn will get on the Labour leadership ballot. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-30.
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>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.
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At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Disclosure of interaction with intelligent aliens by January 1, 2024 ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2024-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Labour will get the biggest share of the vote next election ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2170-01-01.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Google Search will survive 5 years ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.