Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 56% | 75% | 76% | 89% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 16 | 28 | 34 | 73 | 23 | 186 |
Displaying all predictions made by peter_hurford. Filter by:
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Cardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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LTC cryptocurrency litecoin will hit $400 by 3/1/18 ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-01-29; known on 2018-03-02; judged wrong by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-03-02.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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For at least one full hour in 2018, Ethereum will have a total market capitalization of $250B or more, as judged by coinmarketcap.com (or a commonly accepted alternative if coinmarketcap.com no longer exists) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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Jared Kushner is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The US government undergoes a “government shutdown” for at least 24 hours in 2018 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-27.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the House of Representatives in the 2018 Midterm elections ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Legislation renewing DACA is signed into law by the end of April 2018 ( 20% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-05-02.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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I fully complete all four projects in the RP project space by the end of March ( 30% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-11; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-04-10.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Hillary Clinton will be indicted for the sale of Uranium to Russia ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Gibs on 2017-11-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-07-02.
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The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
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As of the end of 2017, J and K will have decided to move to India indefinitely ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-01-01.
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BH will conclude his interview today is from a scam company ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-09-05; known on 2017-09-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-09-07.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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There will be at least one planeswalker in the upcoming MTG set Unstable ( 99% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-12-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-12-08.
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Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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EA Grants receives >=$1M USD in total fundraising requests from all submitted 2017 applications ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-08-07; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-08.
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When I ask DW, he will tell me that he did successfully submit an EA Grant by the deadline. ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07; known on 2017-07-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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Someone in the ID will win the US Powerball lottery (and I hear about it) by the end of 6 July ( 0% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-07.
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During my Cincinnati to Chicago bus trip, my plant will tip over and lose soil or otherwise get damaged. ( 50% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-07-05; known on 2017-07-06; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-07-06.
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EA, Animal Welfare – Animal Charity Evaluators recommends Direct Action Everywhere by the end of 2017. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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[GiveWell will publish its annual report on money moved and web traffic for 2016 ] between September 1 and September 30, 2017 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-30.
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Politics, US – Congress calls Obama to testify under oath before the end of July 2017. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-28; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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The Uptake VIP tech event on 28 June will be >=90% male ( 70% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-27; known on 2017-06-28; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-28.
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Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
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I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-20.
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I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.
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Politics, UK – Queen's Speech backed by the Conservative Party passes vote in the House of Commons by the end of July 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-13; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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The first run tomorrow (June 13) for NNP succeeds ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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JD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20.
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JD and I will successfully deliver the contracted work by the 14 June client deadline ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least three different nights between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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I will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 85% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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Politics, US – Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.