Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] F ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] D ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My History of the Soviet Union Grade will be] A ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] Below B ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] B ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] D ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] A ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] C ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] F ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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[My MTH445 grade will be] B ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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Amber Rudd next Prime Minister of the UK (post whoever wins #GE2017 ( 19% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2021-01-01.
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Labour finish on 280+ in #GE2007 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-07-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Russia compromised the integrity of the 2017 UK election process or either labour or conservatives found guilty of illegally colluding with russian government ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-07.
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US Supreme Court legalizes explicit Vote Buying [Dataclysm] ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-31.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May resigns before the end of the 9th of June 2017. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-10.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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Anita Sarkeesian has read the Qur'an ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-09.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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60 Bluechip Cryptocurrencies with individual market caps of over $100million would have existed by this point ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nve on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Nve on 2017-12-31.
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Alex Honnold will be alive 5 years from now ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by berekuk on 2017-06-07; known on 2022-06-07; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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France will give up it's nuclear arsenal, france has 0 nuclear weapons left with no intent on acquiring them. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Iran will provide nuclear weapons to a terrorist group that will use one of them against israel or the united states ( 2% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Venezuela and Cuba will join forces and sponsor marxist insurrection movements in one or more latin american countries, and those will cause at least one of {coup d'état,civil war,war} ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06.
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Head of state of a major developed country will be assassinated ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2022-06-06; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-06-07.
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JD will have to work late (working after 10pm) at least one night between 6 June and 14 June 2017 ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-14; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-13.
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70 tests, chi-square on {days of wearing sunglasses,I have headache the next day} results in a statistically significant relationship at p=0.05 level ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-12-31.
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Conditional on Tibet being granted independence, at least as many political prisoners as 2017 per capita are found to be in/from Tibet 10 years later. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06; known on 2100-01-01.
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I manage to upgrade to ubuntu 17.10 on my main machine to a booting system including emacs, bitcoin, web browser ( 65% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-05; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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Person renting apartment will misgender me? Maybe? ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-04; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-07-02.
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Parents' loan July payment > $999 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-11.
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Computer users who have stickers on their laptop are as a group more aggressive and more likely to get into arguments online than those who do not have stickers ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2021-06-03.
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arctic free of ice at any point before dec 31 2056 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2056-12-31.
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I will leave work on or before 6:00pm every day this week. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-14.
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Moore's law stops : bitcoin hashrate has not doubled in past 18 months. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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Moore's law stops ; transistor count on intel CPUs/GPUs hasn't doubled in 18 months ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-03; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Stack Overflow will receive more pageviews in June 2017 than in June 2016, as judged at https://www.quantcast.com/stackoverflow.com ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
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by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is something else ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually SystemD ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually Linux ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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The Matrix “The Next Generation” / prequels released by Warner Bros ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.
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More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.
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More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 35% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.
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Personal – I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal – I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Conditional on conservatives losing UK election 2017, at least one conservative MP accuses labour of illegally or immorally benefiting from russian influence or being russian plants in some way ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-07-08; judged unknown by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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Bitcoin hits 1M$ or equivalent / bitcoin in any market at any point before jan 1, 2018 (Such as VEF in localbitcoins) ( 92% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25.
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incidence of psychopathy per capita up in Venezuela among those who lived through 2015-2020 higher than long run Venezuela average ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-27; known on 2135-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-03.
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bitcoin hard fork occurs ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Serial killer found to be operating in Thunder Bay in 2017, causing at least 1 death in Thunder Bay in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2026-12-31.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – President Maduro remains in power through the end of June. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25; known on 2018-12-31.
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I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I will identify as a non-atheist to someone within my lifetime, starting now ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 3001-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-07-09.
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Conservatives will win the general election. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by neilscott on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by neilscott on 2018-01-29.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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There will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ikmacbeth on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by ikmacbeth on 2017-06-09.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Total per person unsubsidised cost on accelerator project will not be below €100 for rent food energy and internet. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by erin on 2017-05-20; known on 2019-01-16.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Another Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by burning.harvest on 2019-08-25.
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Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces a release of the Fuschia operating system at Google I/O, with the release to happen within the next year. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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zip file has episode 385 in it ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-19.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – A standalone VR headset sold by Google is announced. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech, Google I/O 2017 – Google announces the integration of an ad blocker, including one acting only for some types or classes or behaviours of advertisement into Chrome ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-24; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Trump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by Nve on 2017-05-18.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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cb95139af8cd20f1c3763ebfa7fd53e6 will come back safe and sound from her trip to america ( 96% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-13; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-14.