Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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Econ – The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The closing spot price for an ounce of gold against the US dollar on 28 December 2018 is between $1200 and $1250. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2018-12-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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US will have universal health care system by 2026 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2026-12-31.
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US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 40 seconds ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 3 minutes ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 1 minute and 26 seconds (the time it ran out in 2017) ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 20 seconds ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 10 seconds ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-12-20.
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[Facebook's matching funds for Giving Tuesday 2018 will run out within the first] 5 seconds ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-11-12; known on 2018-11-28; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2018-12-20.
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By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.
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Tech – Facebook's end-of-day market capitalization be on 28 December 2018 is between $360 billion and $430 billion. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2018-12-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-30.
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Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
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Magnus Carlsen remains World Chess Champion in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-10; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by amadeu on 2018-11-28.
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Jets will win the super bowl ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rimbalzanoo on 2018-11-08; known on 2019-02-14; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-08.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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I will successfully make it through “No Nut November” without masturbating. ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-01; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-11-11.
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[Gaydar] KJ Apa (Keneti James Fitzgerald “KJ” Apa) comes out as queer ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2018-10-31; known on 2068-11-01.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Jens Spahn ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Other ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Friedrich Merz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Armin Laschet ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged wrong by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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[Next German conservative party (CDU) leader will be…] Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2018-10-30; known on 2018-12-08; judged right by amadeu on 2018-12-08.
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ACE will announce Animal Equality as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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ACE will announce THL as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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ACE will announce GFI as a top charity as part of the update of their charity recommendations at the end of 2018 ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by marianne on 2018-10-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by marianne on 2018-11-26.
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Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
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People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.
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Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Turkey – Turkish government announces it has found at least part of the body of Jamal Khashoggi before the end of 2018-10-28 local time. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-10-29; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-11-05.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their applications public knowledge by the end of October 19, 2019 (UTC). ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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EA Grants makes the majority of their grant decisions and amounts publicly accessible by October 19, 2019 (UTC) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-10-19; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-10-19.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known 18 days ago.
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Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
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George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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Politics, US – Kavanaugh is confirmed to SCOTUS before the 7th of November 2018. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, US – Brian Kemp is elected governor of Georgia in the 2018 election, ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-18.
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Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Lewis Hamilton will become 2018 Formula 1 World Champion ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-09-27; known on 2018-11-25; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The control problem will be solved until AI can recursively self-improve. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.
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AI goes FOOM until 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.
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At the end of 2100, at least 100 mio. people will be alive. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.
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Humanity will establish a permanent base on mars until 2100. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2101-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2073 and 2085. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2052 and 2062. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2063-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on mars will be between 2042 and 2052 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2053-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 1000 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2075 and 2085. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 100 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2055 and 2063. ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2064-01-01.
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The first 1-year period in which at least 10 people will have lived permanently on the moon will be between 2045 and 2055. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2056-01-01.
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The first human being will be born on mars between 2070 and 2090 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2091-01-01.
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The first human being will be born on the moon between 2060 and 2085. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2086-01-01.
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Humans will land on mars between 2030 and 2038. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2039-01-01.
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Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2034-01-01.
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Atiyah's solution to the Riemann Hypothesis will have a HUGE flaw or make no sense whatsoever. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moyamo on 2018-09-22; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by moyamo on 2018-09-29.
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Not more than 100 mio. people will have died of attacks by nuclear weapons by 2061. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-19; known on 2061-01-01.
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The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.
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There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2028-08-13.
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Politics, UK – Theresa May is subject to a leadership challenge before 2019-01-01. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Korea – Before 1 January 2019, South Korean President Moon Jae-in visits Pyongyang. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Politics, US – A new Supreme Court Justice is confirmed by the Senate before 6 November 2018. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.
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A restaurant will be serving cultured meat by 2021 ( 69% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by lukefreeman on 2021-01-05.
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SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Runaway methane release from permafrost and other sources to result in near extinction or imminent extinction of humanity by August 15, 2038 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-08-02; known on 2038-08-15.
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Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will be reelected. ( 44% confidence; 22 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by alvastarr on 2018-07-26; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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It's a test prediction ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Joy on 2018-06-30; known on 2018-07-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2018-12-19.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-08.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.