Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 71% | 100% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 9 | 2 | 26 |
Displaying all predictions made by a0c4a123f7. Filter by:
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.
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Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The Labour party gain an absolute majority in the next British general election ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-11-13; known on 2015-05-09; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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Apple will lose in its e-book antitrust trial. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-16.
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Browsers will replace Javascript with a VM as an standard way to run code. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by wslh on 2013-05-28; known on 2023-05-28.
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Police scanner audio will be routinely encrypted in Boston by 2016 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2018-01-09.
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RSA with < v = 1024 bit key sizes to decipherable by government agencies with a couple of weeks or less effort by 2070. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-18; known on 2070-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Facebook front page will have less than 10% market share of Android phones by Jan 1 2014 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by phreeza on 2014-03-13.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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HPMoR: Quirrels prediction that Voldemort killed the snake in the chamber of secrets will turn out to incorrect. ( 16% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-03-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-04.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.
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The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.