Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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By Nov. 01, 2009, PB will stop silently truncating long prediction descriptions. Currently, there is no user feedback or indication that there is a length limit. The last part of the description just disappears after you subm ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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I will spend most of Friday (20%t) on PBook ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Glenn on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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Prediction Book will not have eliminated its performance problems by Nov. 1, 2009. Many page requests will still take more than 4 seconds to load. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-11-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-11-01.
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I will bill 15+ hours the week of 2009-10-25 to 2009-10-31. ( 50% confidence )
Created by refragable on 2009-10-28; known on 2009-11-01; judged wrong by refragable on 2009-11-01.
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More than half of my predictions will be private. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-31; judged right by jes5199 on 2009-10-31.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will have sql backups on all servers using new backup script by end of week. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jon on 2009-10-27; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by jon on 2009-10-30.
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I will have completed my topology homework by the end of the weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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I will be entirely caught up on grading by the end of the weekend. ( 85% confidence )
Created by im on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by im on 2009-10-29.
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Real soon now, there will be some public debate about whether PredictionBook is better suited to deal with personal-life type events or global-public-interest type events ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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I'll go 48 hours without caffeine in the next two weeks ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-29; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2009-10-29.
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Nagios will only contain legitimate errors/warnings by next friday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jon on 2009-10-16; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by jon on 2009-10-27.
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Radiopaedia work will be finalised (for now) by the end of the week ( 60% confidence )
Created by Wes on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-26; judged wrong by Wes on 2009-10-26.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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No military draft in the United States before 2020. ( 90% confidence; 33 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by komponisto on 2009-10-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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I will become the Maths & Philosophy MURC representative at the next MURC meeting ( 95% confidence )
Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-23; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-23.
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There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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This prediction will receive an odd number of wagers before it expires in one hour's time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by UnholySmoke on 2009-10-15; known on 2009-10-15; judged wrong by faws on 2009-10-22.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The Portland Free Geek council meeting will not finish before 9:00pm tonight. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21; known on 2009-10-22; judged right by Martin Chase on 2009-10-22.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to have to go to the doctor from eating the hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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Martin and/or Shana will get sick enough to notice (upset stomach) from the Hedgehog mushroom Shana found. ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-22; judged wrong by Martin Chase on 2009-10-21.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
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The Millennium Prize for solving P Versus NP will remain unclaimed by 2020. ( 83% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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My 8 month old son will take a nap of at least 30 minutes starting in the next 4 hours. ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by taiyo on 2009-10-20; known on 2009-10-20; judged right by taiyo on 2009-10-20.
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Before Dec. 1, 2009, PB will change the UI to make it clearer that users should click “My 2 Cents” when entering a probability, regardless of whether they want to add a comment, and that they should not click the “Right” or “Wrong” judgment button. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2009-12-01; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-21.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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There will be strong indications of extrasolar life by 2016. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2016-01-01.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Created by Larks on 2009-10-18; known on 2009-10-19; judged wrong by Larks on 2009-10-19.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.