Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 70% | 66% | 73% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 45 | 76 | 70 | 63 | 59 | 4 | 317 |
Displaying all predictions made by hedges. Filter by:
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Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hedges on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-10.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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The S&P 500 Index will close below 2000 at the end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by equivrel-markets on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year 2016 without large civil war/revolt. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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AlphaGo wins 5-0 in march ( 55% confidence; 34 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-02-02; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-13.
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The FBI will recommend an indictment of Hillary Clinton before the 2016 general election ( 28% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-05.
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ISIS will control less territory at the end of 2016 than it does right now ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Skyscraper (“The Address”) fire in Dubai was set intentionally ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2015-12-31; known on 2016-01-14; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-17.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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At least one country leaves the Eurozone before 2018 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by qznc on 2015-11-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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“Over the next ten years, we will make measurable global progress in all five areas of the human condition: food, access to clean water, health, education, and the price of energy.” ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2015-05-28.
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Russia will face economic sanctions by mid- 2014 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-06-15; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-05-06.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Any of Eva Ask/Jyrki Katainen/François Hollande/Barack Obama/Ben Bernanke/Keith Alexander/James Clapper killed within 5 years. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-23; known on 2018-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-24.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.
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The world will be a better place in 50 years. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-06-05; known on 2063-06-05.
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The world will be a better place in 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by hedges on 2013-06-05; known on 2023-06-05.
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As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
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Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Spam comments will routinely outnumber real comments/votes on Predictionbook.com by 2014 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-05-01.
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In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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Bioshock Infinite will have an average review score above 90% (based on GameRankings, at the end of the month) ( 65% confidence )
Created by hedges on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-03-31; judged right by hedges on 2013-03-28.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter will break the all-tme Kickstarter record of $10.3 million. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-17; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-04-12.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Apple share price to stay below $700 during 2013. ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be the CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2013 ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by dusk on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dusk on 2014-01-01.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least May 1, 2013 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-05-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Oz the Great and Power will do better than expected (4wk gross > HSX @ 157.4m) ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomMovie on 2012-11-19; known on 2013-04-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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Microsoft will release an official “Start menu” app for Windows 8 by June 2013 ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-10-18; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-06-16.
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3d movie fad is over in US (measured by 2012 3D box office dropping another 20% from 2011) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.
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Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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A state will try & succeed in seceding from the US. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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“By 2018 the € will not be the legal currency of France, Italy and Germany.” ( 17% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.