Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2019 ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2021 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco's IPO valuation to be less than $2 trillion, conditional on IPO before 2020 EOY ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.7 MMbpd ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] OPEC to produce at least 32 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] UK to produce at least 1.4 MMbpd ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.7 MMbpd ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities: Crude oil in November 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1 MMbpd ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-12-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities] As of December 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of November 2019 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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[Commodities] As of November 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of October 2019 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
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Lewis Hamilton will win the F1 Driver's Championship 2019. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by skateboard34 on 2019-12-12.
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[Commodities] Iran to be a member of OPEC as of 2019-12-12 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-11; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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Vice President Mike Pence to make any public comment regarding the impeachment hearings ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-18; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Sep-Oct-Nov 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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Additional predictions appear, written in Spanish. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-12; known on 2019-12-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-12-08.
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Unable to agree to any meaningful treaties on climate change, the UN security council will sanction several nuclear explosions in order to create a nuclear winter. ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2009-12-08; known on 2019-12-08; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2019-12-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 20% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during November 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-12-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-05.
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I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-12-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[USDCNY: As of November 2019 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in November for which data are published ( 55% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-12-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-02.
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I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-26.
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Fewer small satellites (<500kg) launched in 2018 than 2017. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-11-25.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for October 2019 to exceed 110 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-11-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-22.
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In ten days, we will still live on the farm. ( 100% confidence )
Created by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-11; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by MatrixJedi on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.