Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in September for which data are published ( 58% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q3 EOQ ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 5] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 3] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 2] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 10% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT D will] [hidden 1] by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 40% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT C will] complete a cost-effectiveness analysis by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] work leading to the creation (if not completion) of an outside study by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 15% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] supplemental work started in 2018 by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 20% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the next steps by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 95% confidence )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[REDACTED PROJECT will publish] the ITN framework by the first day of Q3 (October 1st) ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-07-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by marcus_a_davis on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [38, 40] ( 2% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [35, 40] ( 10% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [32, 40] ( 20% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [28, 40] ( 30% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [24, 40] ( 40% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [20, 40] ( 50% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [16, 40] ( 65% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [12, 40] ( 80% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[The number of almonds in the bag lies within] [8, 40] ( 90% confidence )
Created by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Air_Cat on 2019-10-01.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Less than 4h30m ( 2% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h30m and 4h45m ( 8% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 4h45m and 5h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h00m and 5h15m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h15m and 5h30m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h30m and 5h45m ( 15% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 5h45m and 6h00m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] Between 6h00m and 6h15m ( 10% confidence )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[On September 23rd, 2019 my Grand Canyon crossing (North to South Kaibab) will take] More than 6h15m ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-18; known on 2019-09-24; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2019-09-30.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 7 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 6 ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 5 ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 4 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 3 ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to PredictIt's most recent 10 days of data, the number of Democratic candidates priced above $0.05 is] 2 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics] PredictIt & FiveThirtyEight “A”-grade polls to agree on Dem frontrunner ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 2 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 3 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 4 ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 5 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 6 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight's three most recent “A-” or better polls, the number of Democratic candidates averaging above 5% is] 7 ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than the current rating of -10.9% ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] less than -5% ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] negative ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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[Politics: According to FiveThirtyEight, Donald Trump's net approval rating to be] lower than -15% ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-29; known on 2019-09-29; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-29.
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I could finish a 1L bottle of water in 30 seconds or less. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-09-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26.