Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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Mom and I go to Point Reyes this weekend ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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My dad and step-mom divorce within the next two years ( 0% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-12; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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Lizz will grow to have a negative opinion of her new job within 2 years. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-05-02; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by Ham Nox on 2016-05-02.
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T will reciprocate for R ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-04-24; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-05-02.
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Jon Snow will be alive in some shape or form during Season 6 of Game of Thrones (excluding flashbacks and dream sequences) ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-07-11; known on 2016-06-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02.
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Mariloup Wolfe will lose her legal proceedings against Gab Roy. ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-05-01.
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I will accept an offer for a PhD program at UC Berkeley or Stanford. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-05-01.
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a formation of UFO that will be seen over a major U.S. city before the end of 2014 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.
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San Diego State University will finish cataloging the Edward Gorey Collection by 2016. http://goo.gl/W7YUh <— 5k of 25k catalogued. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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Facebook's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-04-28.
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USA real GDP growth rate for 2015 will be 2.30%. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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A confirmed detection of an ET Civlization ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-22; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26.
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Bharat's incremental GDP will pass USA in 2014-15. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-03; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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TV soon will come out with super wide-screen 2.35:1 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-16; known on 2016-04-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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Localbitcoins was really incompetent enough to store username/passwords in a way that they could be retrieved, plaintext and the hack on /r/btc right now is real ( 68% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-25.
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At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2016. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-04-25.
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I will be diagnosed with Narcolepsy with cataplexy within 1 year. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-23; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-24.
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I will acquire the 2 needed prerequisites to start work at my new job without incident ( 59% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-23.
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“ESI” contract to be terminated explicitly before May 20, 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-04-22.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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0.85 be at duende before 8:51 (based on real time ETA at 19th of 8:36 at 8:24). ( 85% confidence )
Created by TTL on 2016-04-21; known on 2016-04-21; judged right by TTL on 2016-04-21.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Ubuntu 16.04 (or 16.03-5 if need be) released, with gcc 5, won't immediately be unusable colossal failure ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-04-21.
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Between now and April 22nd, 2016 There will be large-scale riots in major US cities, gun confiscation in rural areas, and a financial crisis, possibly not all at once or in that precise order. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-21.
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Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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I will pass my second-year review. ( 89% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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Chelsea will make the Top 4 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-04-19.
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I got a perfect score on my algo prelim. ( 66% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by azax1 on 2016-04-19.
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I will be not be in a formal, romantic relationship (open relationships included) throughout 2015 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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I will convince another person to adopt a vegan or vegetarian diet (for a minimum of two months) next semester ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-04-19.
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I will make it to the police station today in time ( 10% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18; known on 2016-04-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-18.
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I complete at least one “completionist” cycle this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-17.
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I will advance to round 2 of the 2016 Google Code Jam after round 1A. ( 5% confidence )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-16; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-04-16.
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I will not visit Fortuna, CA overnight or longer in the next 5 years. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-15; known on 2016-04-15; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2016-04-16.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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Oliver Sacks will live into 2016 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15.
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Barcelona wins 2016 Champions League ( 40% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.
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Benfica wins 2016 Champions League ( 1% confidence )
Created by Andrew MacFie on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-05-28; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-04-15.
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Virgin Galactic will send its first paying customers into a suborbital trajectory by December 31, 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-19; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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The U.S. budget deficit will be less than 3% of GDP for fiscal year 2015. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by codexaenir8 on 2014-10-14; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.