Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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In the 2016 US Presidential election, at least one Republican candidate will be publicly in favor of gay marriage and will be successful enough in the primary to get multiple delegates. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-24; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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this prediction will also break. [ You gotta test in production, that's where the action is ]. This is a test just like the last prediction > It's totally a test of whether the bug is triggerable. Are you triggered? d: :d :d d: ( 53% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.
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this prediction will break > ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-27.
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The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Hillary will win the democratic nomination. ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NobodySpecial on 2016-01-20; known on 2016-07-28; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Conditional on neither Hillary or Bernie withdrawing before the Iowa caucus or either candidate running as an independent, Bernie Sanders will be the Democratic nominee for President. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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M will get 50 catches of 3 balls in the next three months ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-25; known on 2016-07-25; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-26.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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The Munich shooters turn out to be Muslim ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-07-22; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses Julian Castro as her running mate ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses running mate from Ohio, Colorado, Florida, or Virginia. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary Clinton chooses Sherrod Brown as running mate. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-04-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Hillary chooses Sanders as running mate. ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-05-04; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A working, playable game will result from this week ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-19; known on 2016-07-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-23.
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Angela Eagle will be the next Labour leader. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-22.
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I will get 8 hours of sleep tonight ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-22.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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coinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Marco Rubio to be the Republican nominee in 2016. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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US election will be Bush v. Clinton ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Codenames will be SdJ 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Isle of Skye will be KSdJ 2016 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Pandemic Legacy will be KSdJ 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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TIME Stories will be KSdJ 2016 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Chri on 2016-07-17; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by Chri on 2016-07-18.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.