Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Miley Cyrus beats Edward Snowden in the TIME 2013 Person of the Year Internet poll. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-27; known on 2013-12-05; judged right by tedks on 2013-12-09.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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After X-Men DFP, Hugh Jackman will reprise his role as Wolverine in another movie. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-11; known on 2023-03-01.
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Twitter stock price will exceed $40 a share on IPO day. ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
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Twitter stock price will exceed $35 a share on IPO day. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07; known on 2013-11-08; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-11-07.
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Ted Cruz will not win a term as US Senator contiguous with his current term. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-10-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 8, 2013 (ie more than a week since its beginning) ( 79% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-08; judged right by foo on 2013-10-08.
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Erskine Bowles is more likely to be Secretary of Treasury than Larry Finke + Roger Altman put together ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-06; known on 2013-09-01.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Mark Cuban will lose his insider trading case ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-14.
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Republicans to gain control of the Senate at the next midterm election. ( 42% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Democrats to gain control of the House at the next midterm election. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-01-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-05.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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In the 2016 US presidential election, dealing with the NSA etc. will not be ignored and will be a serious debate issue, on par with the economy or abortion. ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-09-25; known on 2016-11-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-11-09.
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The next german ruling coalition will be a grand coalition between CDU and SPD ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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The US will have a government shutdown sometime before June 2014. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-09-20; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01.
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Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.
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By 2050 travelling by plane would be a luxury (less than 1 % of the world population) (because of resource depletion, or others) . ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-09-05; known on 2050-01-01.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Elysium (2013) will do worse than expected (4wk gross < HSX @ 90m), but will be a cult favorite 5 years from now ( 55% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-08-09; known on 2018-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Bill predicts that the phrase “0-caching” or “n-caching” will become common hip teen slang by 2018 ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by optimistindustries on 2013-08-03; known on 2018-08-03; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.
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A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
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Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Apple to introduce a flatscreen TV product within 2 years. Cf. http://qz.com/104796/heres-all-the-evidence-that-apple-is-making-an-actual-tv-and-the-remote-will-likely-be-your-hand/ ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-07-16; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Boston attack will turn out to be a domestic issue rather than politically motivated as judged by the inclusion of a terrorist organisation. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by a0c4a123f7 on 2013-04-15; known on 2013-12-25; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-01.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2020, there'll be a news story about Google/FB/Amazon or other multibillion dollar public tech company employee being a government (US or foreign) mole. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-18; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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Michele Flournoy more likely to be Secretary of Defense than Ashton Carter ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2013-06-01.
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Lebron won't be MVP of NBA 2013 season ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Apple will lose in its e-book antitrust trial. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by ygert on 2013-07-16.
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Amazon.com will break Amazon Web Services earnings out into it's own category in financial statements, rather than aggregating it into “other revenue”. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-06-03; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by quanticle on 2015-06-25.
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Blizzcon 2014 will announce Titan, a game made by Blizzard Activision. During the announcement they will reveal that the game does not have a subscription fee, but shares one. They will plan to tie in WoW's sub fee with Titans sub fee, to make 1 sub fee.. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Dodgson on 2013-06-02; known on 2013-06-02; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-24.
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Dropbox will move off of Amazon S3 before they go public or before 2015 ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-06-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by quanticle on 2016-03-16.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Segways will make a comeback before 12/31/2016 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-24; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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German Minister of Defence will resign before the election ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-05-22; known on 2013-09-30; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-23.
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By 2014, US will have passed to law to give a tax break to corporations to bring their money back home ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-14.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2050, a professional league would have raised the height of the rims in basketball above 10 feet. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Yahoo will buy Tumblr for over $1b. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-19; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-02.
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The US deficit will not fall below $300 billion at any point in the second term of President Obama. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-05-16; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by elmerfudd1 on 2016-11-15.
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US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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There exist infinitely many primes no more than 500,000 apart, proven by 2035 ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-14; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-06.
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A “reformist” will be elected president of Iran ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-13; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Conditioned on his political affiliation being outed before the year 2024, Mark Zuckerberg will be outed as a Republican ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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The press will report a DYI synthetic organism product is banned, before a 3D printed gun product is banned ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-10.
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As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.
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Kickstarter will ban at least one high profile DYI synthetic organism project by 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2015-01-08.
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Google Nexus tablets survive longer than Microsoft Surface tablets as a business ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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Larry Page will survive 5 years as Google CEO ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-08.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Chrome OS will survive 5 years ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by crabman on 2018-05-16.
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Google Project Glass will survive 5 years ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-03; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-28.
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Google Voice will survive 5 more years ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google+ will survive 5 more years ( 60% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Google Alerts will survive 5 more years ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-05-02; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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An NFL player will come out as gay before start of the NFL 2013 regular season ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-09-05; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-09-09.
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Boston Celtics will beat the NY Knicks in round 1 of NBA playoffs ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-02; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-05-10.
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Bitcoin was created by a lone programmer who wanted to hide his identity ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Gitmo will still be around by 2020 ( 46% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Anthony Weiner will be elected mayor of New York City. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-11-13.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Paul Graham: Bitcoin may have been created by a government ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tim Cook departs as CEO of Apple before Steve Ballmer departs as CEO of Microsoft ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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The Boston Bomber will be tried in Civilian Courts ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bojidar Kojouharov on 2013-04-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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Chris Christie will run in the Republican Primary for President of the United States in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the West Texas plant blast before January 1, 2015 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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Police scanner audio will be routinely encrypted in Boston by 2016 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2018-01-09.
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WSJ: Psy's new video Gentleman could break 1 billion views in a month ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-20; known on 2013-05-25; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-05-26.
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Within three months they will admit to using drones to keep an eye on the suspect who is causing the ruckus in Boston. The suspect that is apparently being hunted for the shooting at MIT I mean. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2013-04-19; known on 2013-07-19; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2013-07-19.
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Elizabeth Colbert Busch (D) defeats Mark Sanford® in the upcoming SC-1 election. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-18; known on 2013-05-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-08.
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At least one conviction will occur for someone involved in the Boston Marathon bombing before January 1, 2015 ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Boston Marathon bombing perpetrated by ethnically white male. ( 61% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2015-04-17; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-04-09.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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The next US president (after Obama) will also be a Democrat. ( 53% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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The Supreme Court will overturn the ability to patent genes. ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-14; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-06-13.
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Within two months of making this prediction, the US Senate will pass some form of bill with the stated intention of making it more difficult to buy guns (gun registry, assault weapons ban, etc.). ( 38% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-12; known on 2013-06-12; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01.
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Free over the air TV will survive until 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Aereo will go out of business before Fox goes off the air ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Within two months of making this prediction, US President Obama will sign into law some form of bipartisan immigration reform. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08; known on 2013-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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Gold price will be up this year ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by tkosiba on 2013-04-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.