Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
Displaying all predictions made by duck_master. Filter by:
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Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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Will OpenAI have >=99.9% uptime for June 2023? ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Will actors strike by July 1, 2023? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-07-02.
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Will I write my first LW post by June's end? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Elections will be held in October 2023 in Pakistan? ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Najoomi on 2023-05-14; known 23 days ago.