Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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New Alternative Foundation Successfully Set up by TheDAO Drainer ( 19% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18; known on 2017-01-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Stein and/or Johnson take more than 1% of the national popular vote. ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-15.
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TheDAO heist on june 16 winds up forcing rollback/transactions reversed ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-16.
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Within two months of halving, bitcoinCAD price doubles ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01.
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bitcoinCAD up june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
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ethereumUSD down june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Kim Jong-un was assassinated on or before 16 June 2016. ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-12-17; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-29.
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Trump picks Chris Christie for VP ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-16; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-16; known on 2080-01-01.
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Within five years it will be generally agreed that Egypt Flight 804 was brought down by an act of terror rather than a mechanical fault. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-16; known on 2021-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2021-06-18.
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GDP growth in china >6.6% in 2016 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-15; known on 2017-04-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-01.
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Gary Johnson will be the next elected President ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least one other person will be tripped up by the Credence game question about “the” “A Christmas Carol” movie, a question that assumes that there should be only one film on this page: http://www.imdb.com/find?s=all&q=A+Christmas+Carol ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2016-06-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-06.
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“second attack” in Santa Monica either incorrect/didn't happen, or outright media/government fabrication ( 42% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-13; known on 2019-01-01.
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Food shortages (eg grocery/food stores with empty shelves) reported at some point before 2019 in South Africa ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2019-01-01.
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Inflation rate in june 2017 higher than june 2016 in South Africa. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Unemployment rate in 2017 worse than 2016 in South Africa ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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Florida shooter shot either independently, or on behalf of dalwa al isalmyya and not Al-Qaeda. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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Canadian government will pass an “Anti-Cyberbullying law”, and this will be used to enforce copyrights ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-10; known on 2041-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton's genome being sequenced, she will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-07; known on 2066-06-07.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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L wins at pokemon against M at the potluck ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-08.
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S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
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Donald Trump to win the US Presidential election with at least 302 electoral votes. ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by trishume on 2016-11-10.
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bank of canada sets target for overnight rate 1.36% or higher ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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coinbaseUSD bitcoin price at least 1% higher a week after after block halving than it was before. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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Government of Nova Scotia releases Accessibility legislation that meets CCLA's approval ( 44% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-05; known on 2016-12-31.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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There will be at least one presidential debate in 2016 that both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump participate in ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-09.
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Jacob Appelbaum will kill himself before 2017 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Gary Johnson will poll above 15% and be included in the 2016 presidential debates. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-03; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-08.
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uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-03; known on 2020-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I get fired for being pro-boycott/sanction/divestment of Canada / Israel. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07.
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Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Clint Eastwood Trump's VP Pick ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Trump's VP Pick: Carol Bartz ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Someone will find an exception-throwing bug in one of the 5000 lines of the PredictionBook source code that I just deployed in the first week. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2016-05-26; known on 2016-06-02; judged right by Mike on 2016-05-28.
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Trudeau government implements a new NEP without being substantially different from the old one(ie doesn't subsidize alberta for loss) ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-24; known on 2023-06-01.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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I am banned from Facebook ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22.
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Extra GDP contributions from syrian refugees and their descendants in EU has paid for the monetary cost of bringing them in ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2066-01-01.
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New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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STD tests come back positive ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-31.
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The DAO still exists / has a value of at least 1$ ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Lybrido passes largescale human trials with flying colours, no major side effects ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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MIT Course 6 (EECS) to still be MIT's most popular major by 2020 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Halflife 3 will be VR-based (conditional on HL3 being released) ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Bioviva's Liz Parrish to have demonstrated convincing evidence of age reversal with gene therapy ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-17.
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Boston will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-01-01.
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Thiel Fellowship will still run in 2020 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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2016 to be the warmest year ever ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-18.
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Vaselgel makes it to market by 2017 ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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>=1.6 million human genomes sequenced ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01.
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Edward Snowden still stuck in Russia, or dead ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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At least some class of felons(for example those on a sex offender registry with convictions of violent crime) in the US required to get microchips implanted in them upon release ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-16; known on 2020-12-31.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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SKTechworks closes, moves to cheaper location, merges with another larger entity ( 59% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11; known on 2017-12-01.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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2026: Last DRM-spewing company closes down. People once again share media w/o technological barricades ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2027-01-01.
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DRM-free games now selling more copies than DRM-encumbered ones ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2022-12-31.
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2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2020-01-21.
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CLEGANEBOWL ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-07-04; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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Most human conception occurs via IVF/Embryo Selection ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2041-01-01.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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By 2025 Atlas-style robots will be used on the battlefield as ground forces. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-05-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Kasich is Trump's VP pick ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Akasha Project less than 100,000 active users ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2021-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton becomes president and the TPP passes executive approval in the US ( 17% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-05.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by F5 tornado ( 12% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton hit by tornado ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16.
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Saskatoon, Regina, Calgary or Edmonton 100% mandatory evacuations due to fire ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Working system wherein VR/AR is actually presented to the user from within the nervous system ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2041-07-01.
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'Some old coins will move, but they will only be “loosely” linked to Satoshi' ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Summer 2016 to be the warmest summer of US history ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-01-02.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2018-06-01.