Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 75% | 83% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
Displaying all predictions made by OrangeJuice. Filter by:
-
Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
-
Prediction 5: True ( 60% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
-
Prediction 4: True ( 70% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
-
Prediction 3: True ( 55% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
-
Prediction 2: True ( 40% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
-
Prediction 1: True ( 50% confidence )
Created by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by OrangeJuice on 2022-05-23.
-
3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
-
e5457decad6d1248430258b145bd1418cf6229b9e545e0282ab9a192d3b5491e - ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
-
262c5d5c74f33d44712251134f833ccad5ebaa9327aa759951fd3073063ab5d4 - ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2025-05-08.
-
Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
-
Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
-
An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-17; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
-
Tech – Will Beeminder deem it prudent to make it harder to turn No-Excuses Mode back off after you opt in to it, by deadline? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-05-06; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
-
Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
-
Politics, US – Carrick Flynn wins the Democratic primary for Oregon's 6th District ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
-
All Georgia Tech classes go remote during the Spring 2022 semester ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15.
-
Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will remain in power as of May 15, 2022. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Luke on 2022-01-11; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
-
I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2022-02-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by blin on 2021-12-29; known on 2022-02-01.
-
employer will approve my request to stay remote indefinitely ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01.
-
arriverà a 25.000 followers il 17 maggio ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Luca on 2021-11-23; known on 2022-05-17.
-
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-02-15.
-
The Californian 2021 fire season will burn more than 4,257,863 acres (as reported by a CalFire page such as https://www.fire.ca.gov/stats-events/ or https://www.fire.ca.gov/incidents/2020/) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by lithp on 2023-01-02.
-
The average degree of automation changes for key US professions in between December 2020 and January 2022 by >1 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6149/change-in-degree-of-automation/). ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14.
-
India's GDP for 2021-2022 will be higher than 2020-2021 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sam_jaques on 2021-01-08; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sam_jaques on 2022-08-20.
-
I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 18 months ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2022-03-07.
-
SpaceX to beat Boeing in their informal space race (first boots on Mars). ( 80% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-12-12; known on 2022-01-16.
-
conditional on DOI: 10.1037/0022-3514.95.1.128 being replicated with a non W.E.I.R.D. sample of test subjects & n>=400, test subjects will be more or less accurate in assessment of likelihood of assistance given (prdcted M>24.5 or M<16.6) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16; known on 2022-01-02.
-
Bugzy Malone will release a #1 UK album or EP in the next 5 years. (If he dies or goes to jail for more than 6 months this prediction will be withdrawn) ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bendini on 2017-02-14; known on 2022-02-14.