Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 78% | 50% | 80% | 92% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 9 | 8 | 15 | 13 | 0 | 47 |
Displaying all predictions made by Somni. Filter by:
-
sha256 b7ef0c292e294fa4a8a61db591b60d35b5afa21260c3b2e7a9c0c4da45b675f3 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2019-08-17; known on 2019-08-17; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-17.
-
SHA256: 452982B513A16897FEF1AB3AF4AA3C64A78F99065D7329362C5B9ED8BB95EC08 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2019-07-18; known on 2019-10-18.
-
By end of 2018 I will conclude (by object level reasoning), that AI safety is most important cause area ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2019-01-01.
-
fb will still ban erotext in 3 months ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Somni on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-03-09.
-
ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-24; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Somni on 2018-12-01.
-
kernel is awarded the emergent ventures grant https://www.mercatus.org/emergentventures ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-23.
-
Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.
-
ronit and somni will coordinate next week ( 25% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-17; known on 2018-11-24; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-11-24.
-
L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known on 2019-02-16; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-02-19.
-
given S continues taking s in the next three months, they will blackout at least once in the next three months. will return inconclusive if the supposition is false. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-12-04.
-
S's endo gives her a prescription for b or c ( 20% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2018-09-04; known on 2018-09-05; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-09-05.
-
there will be a non-hype blackpoolhotelgate (non-hype being roughly that the customers are unhappy about things not being run well/the owner being incompetent, and not including [only people uninvolved discoursing about it]) ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-08-23; known on 2019-08-22; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-08-24.
-
Created by Somni on 2018-01-05; known on 2018-03-06; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-03-16.
-
A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
The scratch marks on my chest will fade after a week. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Somni on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-07-22; judged right by Somni on 2017-08-02.
-
Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
-
Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-08.
-
Serei has smaller boobs than SynapticWanderer. (it makes about as much sense in context okay???) ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-06-25.
-
Person renting apartment will misgender me? Maybe? ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-06-04; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-07-02.
-
I'll complete Timeless Consent before the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-01-01.
-
My relatives (whom I haven't met before) will misgender me over dinner tonight. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
-
Alice will offer me an orange. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
-
I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
-
There is a YMCA in San Francisco with a gender neutral changing room. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-08-10.
-
The message is from Em. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
-
Ron headcannons Skitter as a trans girl. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
-
English is Gab's second language. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-04-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-23.
-
I will go to the seder tonight. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-17; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-23.
-
I will have moved to the UK by this August. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-16; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-08-02.
-
Will discuss paperwork with Fib for at least 20 minutes today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-16.
-
Tech – FaceApp is revealed to send data from USB storage unrelated to its core functionality to the cloud before the end of May 2017. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
-
illidanstr will accept and complete the Death by Hormones Exam within two weeks. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-28; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-10.
-
I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games within 1,000 years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 3017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-07-16.
-
The TDT gambit will work and upon smelling the stains Jess will message me the colour of her パンツ if she is wearing them or “nayki wayki” &c if she is not. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
-
I will retrieve my passport today. ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
-
I will visit the storage facility today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-13.
-
I will sleep with (meaning we will at least lay next to each other on her bed while we touch each other) Jess within the next two hours. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
-
I will kiss Jess within one minute ( 90% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-13; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
-
3 total announcements by announcement guy in community episode 2. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
-
I will visit Jess today. (Before [17.4.11.23.59.PST].) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-12.
-
I will visit Jess by [17.4.11.18.00.PST] today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-04-12; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-12.
-
Go to CVS today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
-
Go to the bank today. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-11; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-11.
-
I will finish reading Finite and Infinite Games by [17.4.10.12.00.PST]. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-04-10; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-04-11.
-
Haskell dick (author of a textbook) is male. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-04-09; known on 2017-04-10; judged right by Somni on 2017-04-09.
-
North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
-
Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Second date with R ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
-
Second date with L ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
-
Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
-
President Trump will rescind Chelsea Manning's commutation before it takes effect on May 17, 2017 ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-05-18; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
-
LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
-
NASA will not announce “Voyager 1 has entered interstellar space” again within the next 5 years ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mfb on 2013-09-13; known on 2018-12-31.