Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Australia will hold another Parliamentary election by the end of 2016 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Complete lack of cheesecake. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-09; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01.
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Total number of free app downloads in all ecosystems 2017 is not published ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-10-01.
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From Jan 1, 2017 to Jan 1, 2019, If I encounter any 10$ USD bills, more than half of them will have been printed since 2013 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-01-02.
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greater than 600,000BTC worth of payments occur from mobile devices during 2017, whether on bitcoin or other payment system ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-04-01.
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DirecTV and Amdocs publicly sign another agreement extending cooperation between two companies, or one buys the other ( 45% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-25.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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TTC makes its goal of 8$M more from metropass users in 2017 than in 2016. ( 55% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-09-01.
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NATO-Russia nuclear war following Richard Shirreff's timeline ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2017-05-17; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-17.
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2nd amendment repealed in the US (or US constitution considered invalid / replaced outright without an equivalent by at least half the area of the current states) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2066-01-01.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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d33a499b544fa29f0554866ad2db2454 is in active labour during the Bitcoin Halvening ( 14% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-10.
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Contrary to game-theoretic concerns, miners will continue to mine bitcoin and the network will not collapse at the halvening due to lack of mining ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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1 year after block halvening, main USD exchange price will be at least 4.61% higher than the main USD exchange price was at the time of the block halvening. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-07; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-16.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Jenson on 2016-07-15.
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Bill Shorten will be Prime Minister of Australia. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Conditional on Anders Behring Breivik's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-05; known on 2066-07-05.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Turnbull will be Australia's next prime minister ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-08; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-09.
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The redacted 28 pages of the Joint Inquiry into Intelligence Community Activities Before and After the Terrorist Attacks of September 11, 2001 report will not be declassified in 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-07-16.
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Next Apple iPhone (7, not SE) excludes 3.5mm headphone jack. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-09-07.
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Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
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Liam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Stephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Vladimir Putin's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Conditional on Donald Trump's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000,000. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000,000. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000,000. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10,000,000. ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 1,000,000. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 100,000. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 20000. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-24.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 10000. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9999-12-31.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 9000. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 9001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 8000. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 8001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 7000. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 7001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 6000. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 6001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 5000. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 5001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 4000. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 4001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 3000. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 3001-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2900. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2901-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2800. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2801-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2700. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2701-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2600. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2601-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2500. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2501-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2400. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2401-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2300. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2301-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2200. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2201-01-01.
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[Long Term] An existential catastrophe will occur by the end of year 2100. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 30 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-29; known on 2101-01-01.
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Scotland rejoins the EU as an independent nation in the next 10 years. ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2026-01-16.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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The Conservative party will split ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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commercial scale, “netpower” allam cycle plant completed & ready for operation ( 62% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-12-31.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Trump VP pick is Mia Love ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Jeff Sessions ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP Pick Brian Sandoval ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Bob Corker ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-12.
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Trump pick for VP is Marco Rubio ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump pick for VP is Ben Carson ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump pick for VP is John Kasich ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump choice for VP is Mary Fallin ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Food scarce in UK: widespread hunger/empty supermarkets for at least a month(ie not single blip due to natural catastrophe) ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24; known on 2018-01-25; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Theresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Rep. Tim Ryan (D-OH) will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Cory Booker will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Julian Castro will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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A man will be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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I read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-23.
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Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Egypt will default on its debt by the end of 2023 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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ASOIAF: gur nezl bs gur qrnq oernpu gur jnyy ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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ASOIAF Zbgure bs qentbaf unf frk jvgu lnen terlwbl ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-02.
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ASOIAF : Onggyr ng Jvagresryy ybfg ol ubhfr fgnex naq jba ol ubhfr obygba ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Trump picks Newt Gingrich for VP ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-19; known on 2017-01-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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The DAO hack will result in a lawsuit (publicly known) by January 2018. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bitbatbot on 2016-06-19; known on 2018-01-01.