Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 100% | 40% | 67% | 84% | 50% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 19 | 2 | 36 |
Displaying all predictions made by Unknowns. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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Bharat will pass Nihon on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 3rd biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2022. However, Bharat will be one rank higher as the 2nd biggest economy in PPP terms. ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2022-12-27.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.
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The “EM drive” within 8 years not drive anything nor will it provide any meaningful peer-reviewed contribution to modern physics beyond “still another insight in how not to fuck up an experimental setup and misinterpret data” ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2023-05-02.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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Commercialized living on Mars will not have a positive cost/benefit analysis and won't become widespread for at least 85 years. Commercialized living is defined by habitation not primarily for scientific research. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2100-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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I will have a credence greater than 50% that the Everett interpretation of QM is true. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-01-21.
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Between 2040 and 2050 there will be a two year period where at least 100 million people will die due to “climate change caused food scarcity and related uprising suppression due to civil unrest”. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.
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Italian Supreme Court in Rome will confirm convictions of Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito on charge of killing Meredith Kercher. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by komponisto on 2015-03-25; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by komponisto on 2015-03-28.
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H7N9 will become pandemic by March 15, 2020. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-15; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-03-15.
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HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be between 35 and 50 people. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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I will be attempting to get pregnant within a year of my IUD being removed (e.g. IUD removed > other form of BC > trying to conceive; or IUD removed > trying to conceive) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-03-05; known on 2016-02-13; judged wrong by mad on 2016-02-13.
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31 or more people will attend the SF EA dinner conspiracy event (https://www.facebook.com/events/759621220789885/) ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-20; judged right by dusk on 2015-04-05.
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In HPMOR, Bartemus Crouch Sr. will be revealed as having covered up Crouch Jr.'s membership in the Death Eaters, or otherwise shielding him from the consequences in some way, in direct opposition to his reputation as a stalwart upholder of the law. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-03-12; known on 2015-03-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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World population to drop for at least one of the next 10 years. (2015,2016, 2017,2018,2019,2020,2021,2022,2023,2024). ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2025-02-02.
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By March 10, 2035, "the sum of (a) those who own cars and use them at least once a week (b) those who use a ride-sharing program with self-driving cars at least once a week, not counting twice those who do both will be less than 40% of the U.S. populatio ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2035-03-10.
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Unique games conjecture resolved by 2050. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-10; known on 2050-01-01.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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I will have completed the first draft of my novel by June 7, 2015, my 58th birthday. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-06-07; judged wrong by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2015-06-08.
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HPMoR: By end of story, it will be revealed that the events at the end of Chapter 113 were just a setup for Harry to be seen defeating Voldemort. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-01; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16.
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I will find a job before March 15th 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ruthie on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-16.
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By April 1 either at least one user on LW will be either banned or publicly reprimanded for abusing the karma system or it will be determined that Eugine_Nier is still using multiple accounts to push the karma system in a way that strongly favors his poli ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-01.
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I will be working as a software developer before 03/17/2015. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-15.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 1Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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There will be a Israel Palestinian peace deal before the end of Obama's term. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-04-17; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'Gorillas are extinct in Central Africa' by 2023 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.