Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 75% | 71% | 88% | 100% | 83% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 12 | 14 | 8 | 30 | 6 | 75 |
Displaying all predictions made by jasticE. Filter by:
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will have been vaccinated against COVID-19 before 2021-04-01 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2020-10-16; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-04-01.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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There will be a Republican primary challenger getting >10% of the primary vote in 2020 (conditional on Trump running) ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2020-11-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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US economic collapse before mar 2017: many banks fail, emergency measures taken by US fed taken & fail, mass drop in available credit, and at least 2 international news sources(la monde, der speigel) using the term 'economic collapse' to describe it ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-01.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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There will be a total solar eclipse on June 25, 2522 ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-27; known on 2522-06-25.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-24.
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I will have low levels of dandruff while continuing to take Zinc supplements over the next 3 months ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-18; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-10-24.
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Jeb Bush to be the 2016 Republican nominee. ( 49% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) ( 65% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-11-12.
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ISIS will continue to exist through the end of 2015. ( 97% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Israel will not get in a large-scale war (ie >100 Israeli deaths) with any Arab state for the remainder of 2015. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Madplatypus on 2016-01-03.
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No terrorist attack in the USA will kill > 100 people before 2016. ( 91% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2016-01-02.
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Neither Russia nor Qatar will lose their World Cups before 2016. ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-01-27.
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Greece will not announce it’s leaving the Euro before 2016. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-02.
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North Korea’s government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt before 2016. ( 89% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-15; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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I will develop a cold / sore throat or related symptoms within a week after LWCW 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-15; known on 2015-06-22; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-06-22.
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Library Genesis will operate through 2016-07-01 ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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GitHub will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 75% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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I will learn to cook, and will turn out to be better at it than my parents. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2020-06-05; judged right by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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No fusion scheme will succeed until 2050, when ITER will be the first and only successful fusion scheme. Nothing else will even come close to meeting the triple product, nτT of ITER. There won't be a commercial fusion reactor in 2050 though, just a demo ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-22; known on 2050-05-29.
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Voter turnout for the US Presidential election to be less than 49% of registered voters. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-28; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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In both the 2016 and 2018 US elections, neither party will get a filibuster proof majority. ( 71% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2018-11-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton to withdraw from the US presidential election by March 17th, 2016, and Martin O'Malley to be the Democratic nominee. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-23; known on 2016-03-17; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-17.
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Conditional on Hillary Clinton winning the Democratic nomination, she will get at least 54% of the popular vote. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The ever increasing difficulty of pushing the economies of the world forward will force the nations of the world to band together into supranational entities. Not like the E.U. but more like a federation of nations banding together like the U.S.A. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by FarOutFuture1988 on 2015-05-21; known on 2045-02-01.
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By January 1, 2055, driving a non-self-driving car on at least one US federal highway will be illegal. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-13; known on 2055-01-02.
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Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Kyrgyzstan will experience a change in ruling party or civil unrest before 2017. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Israeli Election: Benjamin Netanyahu will be the next prime minister ( 64% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Rigulel on 2015-03-07; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Informal “Du” will be the most common form of address in everyday business transactions in Germany by 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2015-03-03; known on 2050-01-01.
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Eliezer will publish at least one HPMOR chapter this month. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-03-01; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by on 2014-04-01.
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it will rain in the next week ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-03-02; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-04.
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This site would become viral if the admins incorporated facebook integration (eg, your public predictions could automatically get shared on facebook). ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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SMBC Comics: A comic involving penis size as the cross product of legs will appear before September 2013 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-28; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-08-02.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Harrison draws pictures involving murder or dead people. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Harrison shows development of a “dark passenger”; Debra takes the role of his guide, as Harry was for Dexter. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter Season 8: Batista dies ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2020, there'll be a news story about Google/FB/Amazon or other multibillion dollar public tech company employee being a government (US or foreign) mole. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-06-18; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-21.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Google will survive for five more years ( 97% confidence; 38 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2018-05-19; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2018-05-19.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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DE: Steinbrueck will be the next Chancellor of Germany ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-14; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
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By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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The Willy Brandt Airport Berlin will open before the end of 2014 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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By the end of January bond and stock markets will crash. (things my dad says) ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-30.
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Dexter: There will be wincest. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Dexter dies in the final episode. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2013-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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The Betelgeuse star will be observed to die within 60 years ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2010-10-14; known on 2070-12-31.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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'Most phone calls are made via the Internet' in 2014 ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-21.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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Political Pirate movement becomes part of mainstream politics, causing major and concerete changes to governments and some industries, worldwide, before 2017 ( 26% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jonii on 2009-10-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-12.