Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 86% | 89% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by bw. Filter by:
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.