Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 42% | 50% | 68% | 91% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 12 | 22 | 22 | 11 | 12 | 1 | 80 |
Displaying all predictions made by commercecat. Filter by:
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Packing the major items in our apartment will take less than 3 hours ( 75% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged wrong by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a truck by the end of the weekend ( 90% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-23; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get a Uhaul truck on Saturday ( 85% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will get the UHaul truck I reserved on Saturday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-18; known on 2020-08-22; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-24.
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I will receive at least 1 significant – where significant means they've identified a key flaw in my simulation or reasoning – critique of my blog post on rapid testing. ( 25% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-11; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-11.
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I'll be able to test a deploy of HC by eod Monday ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2020-08-07; known on 2020-08-10; judged right by commercecat on 2020-08-10.
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CFAR will report over 1000 alumni by the end of 2016. ( 70% confidence )
Created by commercecat on 2016-03-03; known on 2016-12-31.
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Donald Trump will win the 2020 presidential election. ( 32% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by CoreyS on 2020-08-02; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by galaga on 2020-11-11.
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Over 30,000 people will take the life you can save pledge by Dec 31, 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by commercecat on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's vague fear in chapter 10 (“What happens if you fail?”“Something terrible…”) is not rationalisation but represents advance knowledge of what happens, i.e. there's some causal connection to the future (chapter 90+). ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.