Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 74% | 92% | 92% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 20 | 27 | 19 | 26 | 25 | 0 | 117 |
Displaying all predictions made by wolfish_wrath. Filter by:
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My November 2020 self will think Brexit is on net bad (ALL things considered) ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-20; known on 2020-11-20.
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If I ever understand monetary policy properly, I’ll think that Scott Sumner is basically right about NGDP targeting etc ( 80% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-17; known on 2020-11-17.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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I will not believe in the Christian God in Jan 2023 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will meditate for at least 1 hour (total) each month in a 1-year period before 2025 ( 70% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2030-01-02.
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I will own some cryptocurrency before 2027 (know the private key) ( 36% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-19.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will finish reading HPMOR by 2022 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by wolfish_wrath on 2019-11-26.
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I will use PredictionBook at least once a month until Jan 2021 ( 51% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.