Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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US CBO: health spending >=25% of GDP in 2025. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2026-01-01.
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Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'[I] believe that the answer to the dark matter question will be found within a decade.' —John Ellis ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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'I am optimistic that the answer to the mass question will be found within a few years, whether or not it is the mythical Higgs boson' —John Ellis ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-20.
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'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Polio in the wild eliminated by 2025 —Tachi Yamada ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2025-01-01.
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AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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'We will eradicate malaria, I believe, to the point where there are no human cases reported globally in 2035' —Tachi Yamada ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2036-01-01.
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“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.
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Duck Hunt revealed for 3DS —Game Informer ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Final Fantasy XIV announced by Sony in 2011. —Game Informer ( 55% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Diablo III port to consoles announced in 2011 —Game Informer ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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At least one FPS game announced for Xbox Kinect in 2011 —Game Informer ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-01.
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Nintendo to announce successor to Wii in 2011 —Game Informer ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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Readers' Choice for Time's 2011 Person of the Year: Anonymous —Seamus Condron ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Delicious will either not be sold or will not be as popular in 2011 as it was in 2010. —Seamus Condron ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Kevin Rose will leave Digg, or sell it for a bargain basement price, then leave. —Seamus Condron ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Groupon will buy Foursquare in 2011 —Seamus Condron ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will release an iPad with a built-in camera in 2011. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Obama's approval rating will be lower 1 Jan 2012 than 1 Jan 2011. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013. ( 8% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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On 31 Dec 2011, there will be no generally available consumer-level PC, as delivered from the factory, that has a clock speed of more than 5 GHz. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Richard_Kennaway on 2011-01-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-14.
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Borders will merge, be bought, or file for bankruptcy by 2013. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2013-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2011-02-17.
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No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Bebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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MySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 20% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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Ken Jennings will defeat Watson at Jeopardy! ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-02-16.
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Wikileaks will release files from a major American bank in 2011 ( 44% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Asif Ali Zardari will be ousted from the presidency of Pakistan during 2011 due to huge military-civilian clashes and be replaced by a president who will forbid US drone flights ( 4% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-14.
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Asif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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The Supreme Court will hear an appeal challenging Obamacare and uphold the acts in 2011. —Capitol Commentary ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-23.
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Roberts/Scalia/Thomas/Alito will resign from the Supreme Court and be replaced by a more liberal justice in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Hillary Clinton will step down as Secretary of State' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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'Iran will test a nuclear weapon.' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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'America’s credit rating will be taken down a notch' in 2011 —Capitol Commentary ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-07.
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'the death toll for Americans will be higher than it was for 2010' in 2011 in Afghanistan —Capital Commentary ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-05.
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Obama's approval rating will fall below 23% during 2011. —Capital Commentary ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
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By 2015 a mother will be able to have much of the genome of her unborn child sequenced from her own blood. ( 60% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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“By 2011 a mother will have the entire genome sequence of her unborn child from her own blood.” —Jonathan M. Rothberg ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-01.
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Copyright on Steamboat Willy will be extended in some manner past 2023. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-30; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2023-01-02.
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'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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'Groupon goes on a buying binge & hits $3B in gross sales.' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 10% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Apple gives away [Mac OS X] Lion for free or less than $30' —Brian Breslin ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-06-11.
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'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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'Facebook growth slows, they hit 650M users by 4th quarter of 2011' —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2011-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-07-01.
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Panty & Stocking with Garterbelt will air on Adult Swim before 2013. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Netflix's stock price will be lower next year than today. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-27.
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'Apple launches its long-awaited music streaming service' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-10.
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'Google will buy Twitter' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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'No big Internet IPOs. Zynga, LinkedIn, Facebook, Yelp, Groupon.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-01-28.
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'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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We will have <=7 inches of snow in a flat part of the garden tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2010-12-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-27.
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50-100 US municipal debt defaults by 2012. —Meredith Whitney ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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'I think it is probable that we could get a connectome of the human brain within 4 to 7 years.' —Mike ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2017-01-06; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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'high-end gaming PCs will still have dedicated GPU chips somewhere in them in 2020, and that those chips will cost at least $200 for top-of-the-range and at least $100 for mid range' —Roko ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Everything goes very multi-core, even your cell phone.” by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-07.
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'Computers will become about 50x faster' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-08-16.
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'The graphics card market collapses due to them overshooting consumer demand* and possibly being subsumed by new CPUs.' by 2020 —Shane Legg ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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India's GDP in PPP will be roughly half that of the EU or USA in 2020. —Shane Legg ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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'Chinese GDP on a PPP basis will be roughly comparable to that of the US and the EU (i.e. within 25%)' in 2020 —Shane Legg ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“[In 2036, most] Companies that are currently large, debt-laden, listed on an exchange… and paying bonuses will be gone.” – Nassim Taleb (I interpret this less literally to large cap companies as usually structured now, 2010, based on context – NS) ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-28; known on 2037-01-01.
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“[In 2036] The great top-down nation-state will be only cosmetically alive… The pre-modernist robust model of city-states… will prevail” — Nassim Taleb ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2010-11-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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The European Union will unite into a single super state by 2030. ( 16% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PatrickAchtelik on 2010-11-24; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by muflax on 2010-12-12.
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The percentage of people professing to be both athiest and agnostic will increase over the next decade ( 67% confidence; 22 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Water reserves in Victoria, Australia will be back up to 100% by 2013 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by EvanB on 2014-01-18.
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Contrary to my left leanings, Man Made Global Warming will be proved incorrect by 2022 ( 6% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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Apple will release their desktop OS as software only before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raavin on 2010-11-18; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-06-11.
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“Friends of the Earth (US) will no longer be fighting against nuclear power by December 2015.” —Stewart Brand ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-17; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-01.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'more than half of Baby Boomers will live healthy lives beyond 100' —Ron Klatz ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-14; known on 2049-01-01.
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I will finish my Evangelion research and write my essay/book on it by 2020. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Most learning is accomplished through intelligent, adaptive courseware presented by computer-simulated teachers. In the learning process, human adults fill the counselor and mentor roles instead of being academic instructors. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 95% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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North Korea will attack G20 summit with chemical or biological weapons ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2010-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-14.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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“I would put the odds of an independent [Bloomberg] candidacy for President in 2012 or 2016 at probably sixty to seventy per cent” —Joe Trippi ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-01.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2016 ( 30% confidence; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-08.