Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I finish first read-through of the Topology notes by midnight ending this Friday ( 45% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Action Ronson – Baby Blue (ft Chance the Rapper) on Sunfly Karaoke website catalogue by 2nd May 2015 or thereabouts (conditional on checking 'thereabouts' as judged by me) ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Drake 5'7" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 50% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Drake 5'8" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Drake 5'9" or shorter conditional on sensible consensus ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-02.
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Hawks beat the Nets ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-02.
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I will not run into any of the LSE people I met at Molly's today ( 80% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-02.
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HP MoR: any superintelligent or FOOMing AGI/AI will appear as a character/device in the story ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-05-01.
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My team in the Good Judgment Project (PredictionBook on steroids) will finish in the top 5 of the 29 total teams. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-07-30; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-05-01.
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Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Jacquelyn K. will Skype me sometime in the next 3 weeks (or will try to do so, but will be constrained by factors which are my responsibility). ( 10% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-04-10; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-05-01.
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I will meet up with Felix in London prior to exams ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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I will do 75 sit-ups before I go to sleep tonight ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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I will be awarded the NSF GRFP this year. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2014-08-01; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by spicedpiano on 2015-05-01.
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Survivor will have an all winners season for season 30 ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-05-01.
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I would have made over 100 predictions by the end of this month. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-01.
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Tesla motors' next product release will be a home battery ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OisinMoran on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by OisinMoran on 2015-05-01.
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I go to M this week/c 2015-04-27 Monday ( 62% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.
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I'll go to the Southgate student thing ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-05-01.
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My calibration will be better than Rory's. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-01.
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Bulls beat the Bucks ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-01.
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Rory will attain 300 achievement points on BGO before the end of the month. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.
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THIS ANIME I LOVE WILL HAVE ITS LATEST EPISODE RELEASED WHEN I GO TO CHECK. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-30.
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In the next book in the Twenty-Sided Sorcererss series It will turn out that there is some connection between Jade and dragons. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-30.
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Tim Cook will be ousted as Apple CEO within the next 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by andrevan on 2013-04-27; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by krazemon on 2015-04-30.
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Grizzlies beat the Blazers ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2006-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 76% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2005-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 70% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2004-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2003-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2002-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2001-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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Drop It Like It's Hot released strictly before 2000-01-01 conditional on reasonable single release date ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-30.
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I do my gym and 'track stuff' 2015-04-29 Wednesday ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Sasha will come with me to Ms Cupcake in Brixton tomorrow ( 90% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cupcakes tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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Ms Cupcake will be selling red velvet cookie sandwiches tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-27; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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Upon telling the next group of friends I meet in person, they will find it appropriate, or not incongruent with my general persona, why I've been labelled a 'guilty crush'. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-26; known on 2015-04-28; judged right by RoryS on 2015-04-29.
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I won't get the math tutor position. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-05-02; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
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Rockets beat the Mavs ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-29.
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The Emory REU will reject me. ( 80% confidence )
Created by azax1 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged right by azax1 on 2015-04-29.
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That verse on No Diggity was done by a female MC ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Duration of Mortal Man is 14:10 in the music player ( 34% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Duration of Mortal Man is 14:06 in the music player ( 17% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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He says something along the lines of 'It only takes one to rek me' by 02:00 ( 22% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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One or more of Abbey Road, White Album, Sgt Pepper has a Metacritic critic score ( 61% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29; known on 2015-04-29; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-29.
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Roger Ebert directed Beyond the Valley of the Dolls, conditional on it existing ( 39% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.
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She says 'Yes' or similar that LGBT won lots of awards ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-04-28; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-04-28.