Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Half Life 3 will be announced at the next E3 convention. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kindrapring on 2014-03-18; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by kindrapring on 2014-06-13.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 50% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” (part 3) ( 60% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The title of the next song on my playlist will not contain the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” ( 65% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-13; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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The next song in alphabetical order after “Ghost”, by Evol Intent, will not have the word “Ghost” or “Ghosts” in the title. ( 75% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-06-12.
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I will get a call tomorrow, from anyone. ( 18% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-12; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-06-12.
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I will not turn in my IA remediation until after the weekend. ( 55% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-05; known on 2014-06-12; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.
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I will turn in my English essay on time ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-10.
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I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has bare feet at 6:40PM. ( 60% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-09; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.
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At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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At least one rather major online (or print) media outlet would cover the miserable hotness of the June 4th Rolling Stones concert in Israel with an article titled using a bad pun regarding TRS and the weather. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged right by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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Pops: “Someone will die on the concert” (The Rolling Stones Tel-Aviv 2014 concert) ( 6% confidence )
Created by Neznans on 2014-06-04; known on 2014-06-11; judged wrong by Neznans on 2014-06-09.
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I will weight less than 70kg by mid 2014 Currently 77k ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-09.
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My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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I will not get into college off a waitlist. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-22; judged right by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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Peter will eat dinner with his parents tonight. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-06-09.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant can remember another randomly chosen participant's name. ( 75% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-09; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-09.
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A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.
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Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
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Hannah will pass but not pass advance on her algebra SOL. ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-06-20; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-08.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant has written a complete work of fiction. ( 45% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-08.
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My program will work as I expect it to this time. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.
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My program will work as I expect it to. ( 65% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-08.
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1 USD will be worth more than 120 ripples. (that is the price of ripples will drop to 120 or more per $1) by/on the 7th of June 2014. Making this to remind myself of a bet for 50 gbp with a friend. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-06-08.
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I will want to go back to confessional. ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-14; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.
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I will go to confessional tomorrow. ( 85% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-08; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-07.
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A randomly chosen CFAR workshop participant is married. ( 15% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-07; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-06-07.
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One randomly selected CFAR workshop participant will hold a non-USA citizenship ( 25% confidence )
Created by etarletons on 2014-06-06; known on 2014-06-13; judged right by etarletons on 2014-06-07.
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The USA's labour force participation rate will not increase in May. ( 65% confidence )
Created by wraith on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by wraith on 2014-06-07.
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Bob Ellis: “Abbott Will Be Overthrown In The Next Nine Days” ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-06-06.
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I will get a pass advanced on my chemistry sol. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-03; known on 2014-06-04; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-06.
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Brayden's gift is edible ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by yaliceme on 2014-06-02; known on 2014-06-04; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2014-06-04.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.
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HPMoR: Harry will bring Hermione back to life. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by booradleytron on 2015-03-31.
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Lexi will finish an episode of Night Vale by the end of today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by cobalt on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by cobalt on 2014-06-01.
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I will do predictions for a month at least ( 76% confidence )
Created by influnza on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by influnza on 2014-06-01.
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I will have an internship this summer. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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I will take at least 50 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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I will take at least 45 credit hours during the 2013-14 school year. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-06-01.
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I will still be actively using HabitRPG by June 2014 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rowan93 on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Rowan93 on 2014-06-01.
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Iran and the P5+1 powers will reach a long term nuclear deal ( 60% confidence )
Created by scrafty on 2014-02-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by scrafty on 2014-06-01.
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I will be accepted for a postdoc position by June 1 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-06-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's resolutions from now until the fall equinox. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01; known on 2014-09-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.
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Hannes Rusch simulated random-payoff two-person games (http://www2.units.it/etica/2013_2/RUSCH.pdf) and found that 3.4% of them fit a technical definition of “Prisoner's Dilemma”. The payoffs were uniformly distributed integers in the interval [0-N] and ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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The continuous-normal-distribution random-payoff games will have < 3.4% Prisoner's Dilemmas (estimated to the nearest 0.1%). ( 48% confidence )
Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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Created by torekp on 2014-05-25; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by torekp on 2014-06-01.
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NYRRB: I will keep my New Year's Resolutions until the summer solstice. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-04-01; known on 2014-06-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-06-01.
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15+ people will be signed up for my Prediction challenge(s) by the end of May ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-28; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.