Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 67% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 4 |
Displaying all predictions made by scatterspace. Filter by:
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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andrew yang becomes mayor of new york ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-08; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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The US will institute a minimum guaranteed income (aka basic guaranteed income, unconditional basic income, etc.) at a Federal level by 2045. ( 25% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-11-24; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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A Singularity will not occur by the year 2040. ( 68% confidence; 46 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rwallace on 2009-10-14; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.