Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 20% | 71% | 67% | 75% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 24 |
Displaying all predictions made by PipFoweraker. Filter by:
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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FBI/CIA orchestrated “massive false flag tragedy” happens 6+/-1 days after new US president is elected ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-02-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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UK police officers will routinely use real-time (live) facial recognition software and be equipped with webcams to aid in the apprehension of wanted criminals. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2023-04-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
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Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 5-3 split. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
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Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law in 6-2 split. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
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Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the first four primaries/caucuses (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-11; known on 2016-02-25; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2016-02-02.
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No 3rd party verification for North Korea's claim to have tested a thermonuclear weapon. ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2016-12-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Autonomous cars will comprise 10% of greater of total KM's traveled on Australian roads by end of 2025. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding citizenship from a country not already listed, and/or all other catchall outcomes. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding UK citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding French citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding German citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Russian citizenship. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Pakistani citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Indian citizenship. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Chinese citizenship. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Iranian citizenship. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding Brazilian citizenship. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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The first person to set foot on Mars will have left Earth holding American citizenship. ( 46% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2045-01-01.
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I will read and review at least 30 books in 2016. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tstelzig on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2017-01-04.
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Australia Federally recognises same-sex marriage on or before 1 January 2017. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-06.
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Givewell adds a charity addressing existential risk to their top charities list in 2016. ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by mortehu on 2017-01-01.
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Same-sex marriage to be recognized in Germany by January 1, 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
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2016 predictions: GiveWell will add a charity to their recommendations that is not on the current list (AMF, SCI, Deworm the World, GiveDirectly). ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-29.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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At least one nuclear power plant will produce usable power in Australia by 1/1/2026. ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PipFoweraker on 2015-12-30; known on 2026-01-01.
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Rey is Luke's daughter. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-29; known on 2019-12-29; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-12-24.
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At least one of the UK, France, Germany, US or China will not meet their goals committed at the UN climate change conference in Paris. ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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US citizen killed by US government in drone strike on continental US soil before 2023 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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TWOW will be published before GOT season 6 airs. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2015-12-07; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-05-16.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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There will be 1000 people living in space habitats before there are 1000 people living on Mars ( 77% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-08-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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By 2025, 20% of all US driving miles to be by self-driving cars. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton to be the next elected President of the United States. ( 56% confidence; 43 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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'2045 The totally self-contained mobile home (envisaged almost a century ago by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed from food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2046-01-01.
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'2021 The first humans land on Mars.' —Arthur C. Clarke ( 1% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.