Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
Displaying all predictions made by VincentYu. Filter by:
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The New York times will report it confirmed that Craig Wright is Satoshi Nakamoto by 2016-12-31 ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2016-12-31.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.