Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 60% | 72% | 76% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 20 | 18 | 21 | 29 | 1 | 104 |
Displaying all predictions made by Josh Holland. Filter by:
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At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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My paper will be accepted to the AISTATS conference. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-12-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.
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All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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We have a working dishwasher after the scheduled engineer visit ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-11-17; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-17.
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Adams will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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So will win the London Chess Classic ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13.
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Hammer will win the London Chess Classic ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13.
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Grischuk will win the London Chess Classic ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Caruana will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Vachier-Lagrave will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Anand will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Giri will win the London Chess Classic ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Carlsen will win the London Chess Classic ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Aronian will win the London Chess Classic ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Nakamura will win the London Chess Classic ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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Topalov will win the London Chess Classic ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-12; known on 2015-12-13; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-12-14.
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In the next two weeks something horrible will happen to me (I'll trip on a busy intersection, someone will publicly insult me, I'll be fired, etc) AND I will be unable to cope with it (ie I'll just have a compete mental break down and be unable to functio ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-07; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-21.
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The parcel at the delivery office is my contact lenses ( 95% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-11; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-11-11.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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I will move house again in the next year ( 35% confidence )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-11-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged right by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.
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Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06; known on 2025-11-07.
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English Wikipedia will have greater than or equal to 6,000,000 articles by the end date of this prediction ( 22% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2018-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2018-11-01.
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The list of top charities that GiveWell will release next will include a charity that is not currently listed. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-11-20.
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Out of the universities that I send out PhD applications to, I will be accepted by at least half. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-11-05; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-03-03.
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Scott Adams – I predict Trump gets at least 65% of the votes in the general election. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2015-11-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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K will message me again ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-27; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-04.
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By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will receive a written reprimand tomorrow. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-22.
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Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.
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Tsai Ing-wen will win the election for the Presidency of the Republic of China (Taiwan). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-01-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-16.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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M:BG will have a playable alpha. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2016-06-16.
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Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment) ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.
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Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.
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KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.
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No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2055-01-01.
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The girl that messaged me last night is a real human. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-13; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-16.
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In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.
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Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.
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Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016 will be at least 0.7% for full year. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31.
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Of the 7 satellites of IRNSS satellite navigation constellation, 4 are already in orbit while the remaining 3 will be in place by March 2016. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.
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The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.
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The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.
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I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.
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Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.
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finish bot by friday 22h ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.
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I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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I will have at least one more paper published before September 15, 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.
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Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2022-12-25.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.
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In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.
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Maldives will not have the same president or vice president at the end of 3/2016 as it has now (Yameen, Adeep). ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-10-06; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.
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October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.
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It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-25.
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001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2019-12-25.
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250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030. 40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.
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Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.
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Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.
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Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-04; known on 2045-10-04.
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Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.
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Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.
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Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton “Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. " ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2030-12-25.
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I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.
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USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2020-12-25.
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Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2030-12-31.
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Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.
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CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.
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C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.
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A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.
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Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2025-07-01.
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There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.
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The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.
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The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.