Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 41% | 58% | 67% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 51 | 59 | 60 | 75 | 79 | 6 | 330 |
Displaying all predictions made by sweeneyrod. Filter by:
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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Price of oil above $60 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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Price of oil above $20 by the end of this year. http://www.wolframalpha.com/input/?i=price+of+oil ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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I get A*A*A in mocks. ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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I get 3 A*'s in mocks. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-03-16.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the US this year. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in the UK this year. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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JP and MG. ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge for CompSci without Maths ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get into Cambridge ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 2 in STEP ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get 1, 1 in STEP ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get above 1, 1 in STEP ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A at A2 ( 20% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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I will get A*A*A* at A2 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-09-16.
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Russia to be at war or to have common media reports of many troops engaging in combat in a European country other than Ukraine by the end of 2018. ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Tories win >325 seats ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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HPMOR Chapter 122 will have over 18,000 words. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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“Hermione Granger” will not appear in the title of Chapter 122 of HPMOR. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Zebranky on 2015-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Zebranky on 2015-03-14.
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I will start a website (or blog) on cryonics before September 2015. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-24; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2015-10-24.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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Emma Watson and Prince Harry publicly confirm they are dating within a week. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-02-28.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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HPMoR: At least two parties at the battle of the Third Floor Corridor were present for reasons OTHER than Quirrel's influence on their actions. ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by Faceh on 2015-10-25.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
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Aston Villa will beat/draw against Stoke ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-13; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Sunderland will beat/draw against West Brom ( 75% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-22; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for Maths. ( 10% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will get into the UNIQ summer school for CS. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-04-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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There will not be another meteor over Auckland tommorow ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-12; known on 2015-02-13; judged right by xplkqlkcassia on 2015-02-14.
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Greece will cease to be on the Euro by 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-02-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Following the next election, at least one newly elected Board member will attempt to disband the Bitcoin Foundation (pass a motion or make a statement to that effect). Election of Cody Wilson is also an automatic “right” judgment. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-11; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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Bitcoin over $1000 at any point before end of 2015 ( 12% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2015-02-05; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
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The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-02-02.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By the end 2035, a major mathematical conjecture will be made by a computer with no substantial input from humans. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2036-01-01.
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Someone in FM does the M1 exam this year. ( 40% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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I do the M1 exam this year ( 25% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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MIT will be closed on Monday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-08; known on 2015-02-10; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-09.
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I will overtake J in Duolingo points by the end of March. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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I will overtake J in Duolingo by the end of February ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-07; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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George Galloway will not appear in the main televised debates in the run up to the general election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-05-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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HP MOR : The source of magic stores “souls” (brain states) long term and is able to simulate them, but only those of non-Muggles. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2015-02-02; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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At least one of my sibling will make at least 20 predictions on this website before February 2016. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by Mati on 2016-04-25.
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The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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NATO and Russia will not have exchanged fire by the end of 2015. ( 83% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Islamist militants will cause one or more deaths in the UK, Germany, the Netherlands, Denmark, Spain, Portugal, or Italy before or at 23:59 on the 31st March 2015 (per @MWStory). ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-14.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-02.
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Knicks will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29; known on 2015-01-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-30.
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Pistons will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-29.
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I don't think Nino will get a blue-eyed, hairless cat. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aeyk on 2015-01-28; known on 2015-02-18; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-03-14.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
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Magic will beat/draw against Grizzlies ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
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Thunder will beat/draw against Timberwolves ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
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Knicks will beat/draw against Kings ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
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Nets will beat/draw against Trail Blazers ( 55% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26; known on 2015-01-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-27.
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Facebook will have less than 300 000 000 active members in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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When I wake up tomorrow I will still have hands. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-01-26; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-26.
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HPMOR : Quirrel has the resurrection stone. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by claz on 2015-01-25; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMoR: Chapter 104 posted by midnight ending February 15th Berkeley time. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-17.
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HPMoR: Chapter 103 posted by midnight ending January 28th 2015 Berkeley time ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-02-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-29.
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Hornets will beat/draw against Cavaliers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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Raptors will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22; known on 2015-01-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-26.
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I will find a job before March 15th 2015 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ruthie on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-03-16.
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Heat will beat/draw against Hornets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-20; known on 2015-01-22; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-22.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Nuggets ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-21; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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Heat will beat/draw against Thunder ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19; known on 2015-01-21; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-21.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against Raptors ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Jazz ( 65% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18; known on 2015-01-19; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-19.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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I will be working as a software developer before 03/17/2015. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-15.
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Pistons will beat/draw against Pacers ( 53% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-17; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18.
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Pelicans will beat/draw against 76ers ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-18.
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Wizards will beat/draw against Nets ( 52% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-17; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Rockets will beat/draw against Magic ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Hornets ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
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Ipswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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Tottenham will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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Spurs will beat/draw against Wizards ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
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76ers will beat/draw against Hawks ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
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“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bulls will beat/draw against Magic ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.