Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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Weight down to 65 kg by end 2Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82 kg. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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I will be living in the Bay Area on or before July 1st of 2015, meaning I will have spent or am in the process of spending at least 8 weeks there. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.
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A MH370 blackbox recovered ( 15% confidence )
Created by procran on 2014-03-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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In one year, an oz of marijuana will cost less than $150 (after taxes) in Colorado. ( 50% confidence )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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I will not have sex before July first of next year (2015). ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by EliTyre on 2015-07-01.
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EUR/USD above 1.10 at end of June. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-04-12; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-07-01.
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I will have a 4-6 pack before June 20th ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lumpzy on 2015-05-13; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-30.
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PRI win the largest number of seats in the June legislative elections in Mexico. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-06-08; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-29.
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The fad for 3d will turn out to be just that, a fad, and not vanish, but not really go anywhere either. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-28.
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scientists won't have the same technology in “back to the future” in 2015 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jeredcaleb on 2014-02-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by reubensandwich on 2015-06-28.
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Justice Scalia votes to overturn Obergefell v. Hodges, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be performed in every U.S. state. ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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Obergefell v. Hodges overturned by the Supreme Court, in such a way that same-sex marriages can be legally performed in every U.S. state. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-04-28; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by orthonormal on 2015-06-27.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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I will have at least two more papers submitted by June 25, 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-09; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-06-25.
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Amazon.com will break Amazon Web Services earnings out into it's own category in financial statements, rather than aggregating it into “other revenue”. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-06-03; known on 2015-06-30; judged right by quanticle on 2015-06-25.
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Y will be online when I check ( 85% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged right by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
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I will have a new message when I check Facebook ( 50% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-25; known on 2015-06-25; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-25.
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The car will get towed. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24; known on 2015-06-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-06-24.
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I will have read at least 25 books during 2013. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2013-07-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by azax1 on 2015-06-23.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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HP MOR: Events of ch 89 aren't what they appear to be. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bt_uytya on 2013-07-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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I will develop a cold / sore throat or related symptoms within a week after LWCW 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by jasticE on 2015-06-15; known on 2015-06-22; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-06-22.
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I will see someone I know at, or on the way to Pizza Express tomorrow ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-06-20; known on 2015-06-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-21.
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Yale Effective Altruists will have at least ten active, non-graduating members at the end of this school year. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-15; judged right by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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The Yale Record will generate at least $7000 in revenue this year (including donations) ( 62% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-20; known on 2015-05-31; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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The Yale Record will make a profit of at least $1000 between September 1st, 2014 and June 1st, 2015, including alumni donations. ( 75% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-24; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-06-21.
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I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.
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I will get a 1 in my degree ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
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I will get a 2.1 or over in my degree ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-18; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-18.
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I will get a first in my degree. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by theboubmeister on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by theboubmeister on 2015-06-18.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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I will start blogging after exams ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-17.
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Off Foxtrot by May 30, 2015. ( 89% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-25; known on 2015-05-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2015-06-17.
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The Spurs, Thunder or Cavs will win the championship. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-25; known on 2015-06-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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The Warriors won't win it all ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-19; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs (update with game one outcome and Kyrie's injury known) ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-06; known on 2015-06-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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“I predict that California violent crime rates should rise about 4 percent relative to the rest of the U.S. over the next few years.” — Steven D. Levitt (http://www.freakonomics.com/2011/06/01/the-supreme-court-provides-a-dissertation-topic-for-a-budding ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Pavitra on 2011-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-06-25.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Labour will get the biggest share of the vote next election ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-13; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Jeremy Corbyn will get on the Labour leadership ballot. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-15; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-15.
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[GoT] FTW won't happen in season 5. They will save that for next season. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-07; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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R+L=J to be explicitly referenced on screen by the end of Season 5 of Game of Thrones ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2015-05-28; known on 2015-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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[GoT] Cleganebowl in S05E10. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-13; known on 2015-06-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-15.
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Alastair will get a hangover from Emma May Ball ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-06-14; known on 2015-06-15; judged wrong by splorridge on 2015-06-15.