Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Sheep Marketplace will cease operating within a month. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-17; known on 2013-11-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-18.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 1: placebo then active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-08; known on 2012-10-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 2: placebo then active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-10-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 3: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-07; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 4: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-19; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-19.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 5: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2012-11-27; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 6: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 7: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-11; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-11.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 8: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2012-12-18; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-17.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 9: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-23; known on 2012-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-23.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 10: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-06; known on 2013-01-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-06.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 11: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-16; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-16.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 12: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-01-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-18.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 13: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-01-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-25.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 14: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-31; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-31.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 15: placebo then active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-02-07; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-06.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 16: placebo then active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-02-14; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-13.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 17: placebo then active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-20; known on 2013-02-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-20.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 18: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-02-26; known on 2013-02-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-26.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 19: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-03-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-03-04.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 20: placebo then active? ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-10; known on 2013-03-11; judged right by gwern on 2013-03-10.
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I will be visited or questioned or arrested by police over my LSD order. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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LSD: My trip will be generally positive (and not a 'bad trip'). ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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I will cease to identify as an atheist after my LSD trip. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-06; known on 2013-03-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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LSD: I will experience a partial or fully mystical experience. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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My LSD order will arrive. ( 90% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-21.
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My LSD order will arrive within 2 weeks. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-09-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-19.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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SR: <30 related arrests within a year. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2014-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-10-01.
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Spice & Wolf season 3 will be released within 5 years. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-08; known on 2018-10-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-10-08.
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SR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-30.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in neither Romania nor Latvia nor Sweden ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Sweden ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Latvia ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: the server imaged in July 2013 was in Romania ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-10-06.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht was the original founder and only owner of SR ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-04.
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SR: the NYC trial will finish within a year ( 33% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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SR: the Maryland trial will finish within a year. ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 22 October 2013 ( 38% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-10-22.
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SR: the dk.onion forums will become inaccessible on or before 9 November 2013 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-11-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-10.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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SR: DPR/Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of computer hacking (or conspiracy). ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht will not be found guilty on charges of narcotics trafficking (or conspiracy). ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 2 years. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2015-10-04.
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SR: The FBI/government will gain control in any way of DPR's ~฿600,000 within 1 year. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-04; known on 2014-10-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-05.
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Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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US govt will not default on its debt before Mar 1, 2014 ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by scrafty on 2014-03-04.
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Ross William Ulbricht will not be found guilty of any charges, whether through acquittal, or charges not being brought, or any other reason. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-02; known on 2015-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-02-04.
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SH will run a blinded randomized self-experiment of Methylene Blue within a year. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-08-25; known on 2014-08-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-29.
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Kiba's favorite season of the year is summer. ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-08-25; known on 2013-08-26.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the median estimate on this prediction will be 50%. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 0%. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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By January 2014, a default opted-in Internet Porn Filter will be deployed in >40% of the households in the UK. ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2014-02-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will learn the killing curse by the end of the year or Quirrell will be disappointed that Harry has not learned the killing curse by the end of the year. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cakoluchiam on 2013-07-24; known on 2014-05-15; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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Canonical will be acquired before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-07-23; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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GSoC 2013: “Haskell Qt Binding Generator” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
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GSoC 2013: “Extending GHC to support building modules in parallel” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-13.
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GSoC 2013: “Parallelise `cabal build`” ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
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GSoC 2013: “Improve the feedback of the cabal-install dependency solver” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
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GSoC 2013: “Communicating with mobile devices” ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-13.
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GSoC 2013: “Better record command for darcs” ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-10.
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GSoC 2013: “Port Charts to use Diagrams” ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
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GSoC 2013: “interactive-diagrams and a paste site with the ability for dynamic rendering of diagrams” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
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GSoC 2013: “Overloaded record fields for GHC” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-08.
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GSoC 2013: “Enhancing Darcsden” ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-08.
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HP MoR: Professor Quirrel is manipulating Harry into getting the Philosopher's stone for him (as of ch95) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-18; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore was involved in the attack that ended Narcissa Malfoy's life, but did not cast the spell that killed her. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-13; known on 2016-01-05; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Lucius Malfoy ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Petruchio on 2013-07-11; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry will obtain the Resurrection Stone and the Elder Wand (in addition to his Cloak) to become Master of Death. ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jordan_Hoyt on 2013-07-09; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by rictic on 2015-05-16.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: Snape kills Dumbledore ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-06; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.
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More than 1000 known exoplanets by the end 2014 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by mfb on 2013-07-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mfb on 2013-10-23.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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Snowden turns himself in to US authorities before 2016 ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-07-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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loan and securities losses in the U.S. will reach $3.6 trillion. —Nouriel Roubini ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2013-03-28.
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HP MoR: We won't know who framed Hermione by 1/1/2014. Prediction inspired by http://predictionbook.com/predictions/18095 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-06-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by a0c4a123f7 on 2014-01-02.
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HP MoR: Hermione will make a Horcrux chronologically before or during the events of ch89 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-07-01; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: the troll attack in ch88-89 was executed by Severus Snape ( 18% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: ch90 will involve a use of a Time-Turner by any party. ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2013-08-30; judged right by nigr on 2013-08-15.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Before 2023, Charlie Stross will write and publish a novel that features a Roko's Basilisk-like plot device ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-06-14; known on 2023-06-14.
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“…Suzuki [Shunji] also wrote that at GAINAX's current level of production and current staff, they would be unable to stay afloat and would fail within 2-3 years without new Evangelion movie licensing rights.” ( 10% confidence; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-06-03.
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HP MoR: neither Quirrellmort, nor Snape, nor Dumbledore, nor Lucius, nor Hermione is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Hermione alone is responsible for the attempted murder. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy is responsible for framing Hermione. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-05-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by DrDiaphanous on 2015-02-19.