Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Real Madrid would have won the champions league at least 6 times by the year 2025 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Seyi on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Biometric clothing will be a trillion dollar market by 2025. ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-27.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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New medical breakthrough will revolutionize battlefield care by late 2020. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-11-30.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.
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The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.
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60% of the worlds combustion engines will run on Biofuels by the end of 2022 ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-31.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Worldwide biometric ID system will go online by 2022, unknown to the standard publics awareness. ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2022-12-30.
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HIV will be cured by 2025, but 5 new viruses deadlier than it will replace it. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-30.
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The first “worldwide classroom” will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-06-30.
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By 2029, the “worldwide classroom” (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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Cognitive Implants will be available for consumer use by 2040. ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-11-17.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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The first truly human telepathic-link will occur in 2065 via a biometric implant. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2065-12-01.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Truly “Pilotless” air travel will be the standard in 2050. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2050-12-16.
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Contact Sports (football,boxing, kick boxing, most martial arts) will be outlawed in 60% of the world by 2025 due to a medical discovery. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Holographic Television (HTV) will be a trillion dollar industry by 2025. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-12-16.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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World governments will ban chemical/Biological/Nuclear weapons after The Third World War (WW III) and make it a penalty of death to all who develop such weapons … anywhere … on Earth. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2040-01-16.
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The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.
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The Singularity will occur by 2050. ( 34% confidence; 27 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by michaelanissimov on 2011-11-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2025, water vapor will be detected in the atmosphere of at least one free-floating “rogue planet”. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, at least one object larger than Mars will be discovered within 4 lightyears of our Solar System. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the GOP's current libertarian/conservative coalition will no longer be united under one party. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2016, Legislation will have been introduced (not necessarily passed) banning home solar generation on grounds of safety. ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ARFisk on 2011-11-12; known on 2016-11-12; judged wrong by ARFisk on 2016-11-13.
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The desktop and laptop computer industry will be made obsolete by modular smart phones or mobile devices by 2020. E.g., a smart phone capable of wirelessly interfacing with a keyboard, mouse, and monitor. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, the remains of several prehistoric human settlements will be discovered underwater by archaeologists. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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By 2025, single-lens magnifying glasses that allow a person to view unicellular microorganisms will be available to consumers for less than US$100 (adjusted for inflation). ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The prediction market intrade will still be open for business in 2020. ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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The “technological singularity” will be a major paradigm shift for humanity. ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by steve1interstock on 2011-11-02; known on 2111-11-02; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-05.
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In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.
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econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in 3.0 than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11.
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A new US Political party will come to power by 2020 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-16.
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'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.” ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.
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The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.
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No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.