Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by banx. Filter by:
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The Bush tax cuts will be extended for under-100k single earners before they expire. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by banx on 2012-11-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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“I estimate there is a 79.4357 percent probability that Susan Rice will be confirmed early next year as secretary of State, and the vote won’t even be close.” —John Heilemann, NY Magazine ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Gangnam Style to reach 1,000,000,000 views by December 1st 2012. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sarokrae on 2012-11-25; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-12-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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If Star Wars VII is released in 2015, then it will have a higher RottenTomatoes score than 'The Phantom Menace' at the end of 2015. ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-11; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2016-01-01.