Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The UK snap general election results in a hung parliment ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-04-19; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour finish on 280+ in #GE2007 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09; known on 2017-07-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win at least 50 seats in the snap General Election. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham North. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency: >= 30% vote for Liberal Democrat MP ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – North East Somerset constituency elects conservative MP ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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2017 UK general election – Bath constituency elects conservative MP ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham East. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Cambridge ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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The Scottish National Party will win the same number of seats as in 2015. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2017-04-18; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Nottingham South. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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Labour will win in Midlothian ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-05-09; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-09.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Trump approves dapl >90 days from inauguration but <180 days from inauguration ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Resolution 1 : I will spend equal time with people who live within PRISM/walled gardens like facebook as time outside those walls ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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Politics, US – Financial Choice Act is passed by the US House of Representatives before the end of June. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-09.
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Front National will not end up in power. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-06-30; judged right by technicalities on 2017-06-19.
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macron president 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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STC is privatized ( 59% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Assuming I start the new job successfully, after one year from the first day of work I will find it a more rewarding use of my life than my old contracting job, well worth quitting for ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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President Bernie Sanders Assassinated ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Non-test nuclear weapon detonation, intentional or not, before or during the first Comey testimony on Thursday ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Donald Trump will tweet at least one response during the Comey testimony ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-08; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Politics, US – Greg Gianforte apologises to the reporter he was charged with the assault of, including an apology that continues to understate things so long as it includes admission of error, by end of June. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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Politics, US – Trump or a representative announces the relocation of the US embassy to Jerusalem by the end of the 7th of June. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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France s next president (2017 election unless Hollande resign) will be right-wing ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-04-15; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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Macron is going to select a prime minister ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Orian2 on 2017-05-08; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-06.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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I go to CRev. ( 40% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-06-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-05.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Tech, Computex – Before the end of Computex, AMD states an intended month for the release of Ryzen Threadripper CPUs. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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SpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $1200 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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Manchester United will win no trophies in the 2016-2017 Season ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03.
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Healthcare, UK – Dr Sunil Idicula Simon is struck off, or the process for striking them off is advanced towards a subsequent stage of review, at their hearing on the 2nd of June 2017. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-03.
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Politics, UK – An MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Politics, UK – An MP or an agent of an MP is arrested or charged in connection with an investigation into election expense reporting prior to the next UK General Election. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-20; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-02.
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Ariane 5 Flight VA237 will successfully launch within one week ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-02.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-10-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the American Civil War tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Colors tag will be lower for May 2017 than for May 2016. ( 73% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-06-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.