Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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A certain close friend of playablecharacter will commit suicide this year ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I envision some vision ( 30% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will consider myself to be “a person who drinks alcohol” at any point in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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US does not publicly and explicitly disavow One China policy in 2017 ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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User “QUEER HOMOSEXUAL LESBIAN” visits Bay Area this year ( 35% confidence )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will get over 1 million WP pageviews for WP articles created in 2017, for 2017 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 40+ books in 2017 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 30+ books in 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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I will read 20+ books in 2017 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2018-01-01.
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Firefox browser share will be below 5.1% for December 2017 as reported by W3Counter ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-07; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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Greece will default on it's sovereign debt, or exit the Eurozone (possibly both) by the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2016-04-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2018-01-01.
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I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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Theresa May to be next tory leader ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Germany does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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France does not declare plan to leave EU in 2017 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No country currently in Euro or EU announces new plan (excluding England) to leave during 2017 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Edward Snowden still stuck in Russia, or dead ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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ISIS will not continue to exist as a state entity in Iraq/Syria by the end of 2017 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Syria’s civil war will not end during 2017 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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No major intifada in Israel in 2017 (ie > 250 Israeli deaths, but not in Cast Lead style war) ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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'weapons of financial mass destruction' trigger collapse in 2017, causing widespread market panic/crisis ( 36% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX carries out a successful Falcon Heavy booster landing, of at least one booster in 2017. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atomicspacemann on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Kellyanne Conway stops having a formal role in the Trump administration by end of 2017. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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Predictionbook user reads a news article on Reuters, AFP, AP, BBC, Der Spiegel, Euronews or CNN that implicates possible Russian influence behind Berlin 2016 truck attack. Even a speculation article counts. If found, please provide a link. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2016-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and existing LessWrong accounts will stop working (forcing users to sign up for fresh accounts) ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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2017 LessWrong codebase migration will happen and will cause massive linkrot that will last for at least one month ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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LessWrong will use Telescope Nova rather than its old reddit codebase by 2018-01-01 ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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LessWrong will accept posts written in Markdown (any flavor) on its web interface by 2018-01-01 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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“Link posts” will still exist as a feature for new posts on LessWrong on 2018-01-01 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Trump_%22compromised%22_claims (PissGate Wikpedia Article) will be around on January 1st, 2018 ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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At least one non-redirect page I created on the English Wikipedia during 2016 will be deleted through an AfD in 2017 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Vipul Naik will publish a post on the Effective Altruism Forum during 2017 http://effective-altruism.com/user/vipulnaik/submitted/ ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2018-01-01.
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Law Students commonly use IBM's Watson ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Peteris on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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MSJapan will make an edit on the English Wikipedia in 2017 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Contributions/MSJapan ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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“Timeline of digital preservation” on the English Wikipedia will be over 100,000 bytes by the end of 2017 https://goo.gl/RMJbcs ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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Gotthard Base Tunnel completed by 2018. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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TPO Mobile (The People's Operator) shutters operations before the end of 2017 ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by thekohser on 2017-04-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by thekohser on 2018-01-01.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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A new Mersenne prime found by January 1, 2018 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-22; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2018. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.