Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 82% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 14 | 33 |
Displaying all predictions made by davidiach. Filter by:
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At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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The “Rapture” will not occur by the end of 2050. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.
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Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.
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Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will still be alive in 2078. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11; known on 2078-01-01.
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There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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Including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million) ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Mitt Romney will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by nohat on 2012-08-21.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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“You will hear nothing about Google+ a year from now.” – Eliezer Yudkowsky (http://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=2722976) ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ZrCa on 2011-07-03; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by ZrCa on 2012-07-19.
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“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.