Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2019 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.
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The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“China does not manage to avert economic crisis (subjective)” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant” ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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“Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Joe Biden ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] any other candidate ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Cory Booker ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Joe Biden ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Nevada winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-23; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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SPD will get the most votes in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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AfD will get more votes than FDP in 2020 Hamburg State Election ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-12; known on 2020-02-24; judged right by qznc on 2020-02-25.
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At least 25% of American personal car travel will be via self-driving cars by February 24, 2020. ( 4% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-24; known on 2020-02-24; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-02-24.
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Personal – I weigh in at 75kg or below by deadline. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I will finish with IoT Assignment by 11:59 pm 15th Feb. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atharva117 on 2020-02-15; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by atharva117 on 2020-02-16.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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The Baltimore Ravens will win the Super Bowl ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Attorney General Geoffrey Cox is removed from their position by deadline. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.
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Politics, UK – Andrea Leadsom is removed from the Cabinet by deadline. Change of position while remaining in the Cabinet does not count. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-02-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-15.