Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 63% | 64% | 86% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 19 | 11 | 21 | 97 | 14 | 171 |
Displaying all predictions made by Oscar_Cunningham. Filter by:
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Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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Nosek's project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=30% of them are failed replications. ( 73% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is proper dead. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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I will attend at least 1 Less Wrong meetup between now and 2013. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-02.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-27.
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Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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I will attend at least one LessWrong meetup in person, before 2013 ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-04-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be mentioned by name but not appear ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.
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HP MoR: The use of the device with the golden wibblers is revealed before 2017. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-01-01.
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HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-09.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will stay at Hogwarts during Easter and his parents will visit him ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Muke Tever on 2013-07-11.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what is the important task McGonagall was called away from ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Harry ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: >= 6 chapters of 2+ pages length published in 2012 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.