Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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Cultured meat will free 25% of land used for ranching in North America by 2035. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Malgidus on 2013-03-27; known on 2036-01-01.
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A nationwide effort to legalize polygamy ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elmerfudd1 on 2013-03-26; known on 2025-06-20.
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By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.
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One of Italy/Spain/Portugal/Germany will leave the EU before 2023 ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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Cyprus will leave the EU before 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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One of the G-20 governments (or superentities like EU) will ban bitcoins before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Square will go public in 5 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daffodilian on 2013-03-06; known on 2018-03-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16.
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By January 1, 2025, it will be proven that any odd perfect number is divisible by the sixth power of some prime. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-24; known on 2025-01-01.
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A referendum on Quebec sovereignty to be held before 2018. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2028-02-11.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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By the end of 2063, the consumption of meat from animals will be illegal in at least one area of Europe or North America with a population of at least 100,000 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-02-07; known on 2064-01-01.
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Obama will come to be ranked, on average, by presidential historians within two places of 17th best president. (ref: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/01/23/contemplating-obamas-place-in-history-statistically/) ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-01-26; known on 2113-01-01.
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Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
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Mandatory paternity testing in some states of the USA by 2020. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by tomokaicho on 2013-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-02-10.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.
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EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.
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The United States will reach less than 5% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 48% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-06-05.
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The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that fish oil significantly reduces mortality. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.
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The Vital Study (http://www.vitalstudy.org) will find that Vitamin D at 2000IU significantly reduces mortality. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-01-07; known on 2017-12-31.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-02-13.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
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Intrade's prediction will reflect Nate Silver's prediction (within 1.0% sometime during election day) in the 2016 presidential election. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cy Fleming on 2012-12-11; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by DaFranker on 2016-11-30.
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P = NP problema lidz 2018. gada 1. janvarim netiks atrisinata. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by zaarcis on 2012-12-10; known on 2018-01-01.
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Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.
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Within 50 years, excavations on Flores Island will show that Homo floresiensis survived into historical times. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-28; known on 2063-01-01.
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Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by randomlurker13 on 2012-11-25; known on 2030-06-01.
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By 2020, [nearly] all hybrids will be plug-ins. —Alyssa Vance ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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By 2022, some roads will be self-driving-only. —Alyssa Vance ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-11-24; known on 2023-01-01.
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Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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IEA: By 2035, Iraq's output rate will rise to more than 8 million barrels [per day], overtaking Russia to become the world’s second-largest exporter. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2035-12-31.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Democratic candidate takes Georgia in 2016 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Democratic candidate takes North Carolina in 2016. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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There'll be less gridlock in Obama's second term vs. the first term (measured by total number of filibusters) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31.
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After a period of cognitive dissonance, a sizable part of the press will start referring to the US as a “center-left” country during the Obama term. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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In the next ten years, self-identified anarchists will out number self-identified Greens in the US. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01.
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A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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Within fifty years (2062), the world economy will experience an increase in economic growth rate comparable to the industrial and agricultural revolutions. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2062-12-31.
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Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2027-12-31.
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Within three years (2015), a AAA level gaming title (with professional voice acting, at least Xbox 360 level graphics, and a multimillion dollar budget) will be released for a mobile (smart phone) platform. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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Within five years (2017), motion-controlled augmented reality headsets will be widespread in the consumer market, selling millions of units and beginning to overtake multitouch screens as the primary mode of mobile computer interaction. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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By 2017, photo-realistic gaming experiences will be possible on high-end PC hardware. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-12-31.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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By 2024, high frequency trading will be significantly reduced in the US (either by regulation or by diminishing profits) ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-20; known on 2024-01-01.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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By 2020, it'll be common for some jobs to require your Klout score (or something similar) as part of the hiring criteria. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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I will start a PhD program within the next five years. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by amitpamin on 2012-10-10; known on 2017-10-09.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2040, no other country will have both more active nuclear warheads and higher GDP than the United States. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-02; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Sea level rise will exceed 2m by 2100. ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-02; known on 2100-01-01.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.