Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 63% | 55% | 78% | 90% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 29 | 40 | 69 | 59 | 86 | 12 | 295 |
Displaying all predictions made by sortega. Filter by:
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Test ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2023-04-08; known on 2023-04-08.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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https://www.metaculus.com/questions/384/human-machine-intelligence-parity-by-2040/ will be resolved as ambiguous or cancelled before resolution ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2021-09-07; known on 2036-01-01.
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Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-03-12.
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At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in any country (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-02-22.
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Some form of certification to people immune to coronavirus will be issued in Spain (either for people vaccinated or recovered) ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2020-04-06; known on 2021-06-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-04-16.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-03.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12.
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As of the end of 2030, nobody lives on less than the international poverty line. ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-06-30.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y agotará legislatura ( 43% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-08-04.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-14.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos un año ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by sortega on 2020-12-31.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PP+Vox+Ciudadanos+NA+ ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP sin indepes ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del bloque PSOE+Podemos+MP e indepes ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gracias al voto y/o abstención del PPSOE ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por ninguno de los anteriores (independiente, Teruel Existe…) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por Podemos ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PP ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno presidido por el PSOE ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se repetiran sin formar gobierno ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-07.