Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 42% | 73% | 61% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 33 | 2 | 81 |
Displaying all predictions made by JTPeterson. Filter by:
-
Joe Biden won't be on the ballot in November. ( 5% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-03; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-19.
-
Mitt Romney will endorse Joe Biden before the 2020 election ( 34% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-03.
-
Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
-
Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
-
Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
-
Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Person to walk on the moon by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
-
By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
-
SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Democrats will not take the senate in 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by lukefreeman on 2018-11-07.
-
Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
-
Obergefell v Hodges effectively overturned by December 31, 2025 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-30; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-18.
-
There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
-
Kanye or Kim will run for President in 2020. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ldor_11 on 2018-06-18; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-11-08.
-
The “3 Cal” proposal to create three different California states gets a majority of votes in the 2018 election ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-06-17; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
“Game of Thrones” S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-22.
-
Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
-
Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
-
I go on an overnight hike ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not get a job doing pure research before grad school starts ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
-
President Monson passes away before April conference ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I read 24+ books this year ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I get into one of the other grad programs I applied to (not UPenn) ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
I am unemployed for at least 1 month before grad school ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-08-28; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
-
I lose weight (current weight @ 170) ( 60% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-07-16.
-
I go to at least 2 music concerts ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.
-
I move to Pennsylvania ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
-
I get into UPenn ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
I have a consistent 3-month stint of exercise ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not do the Future Authoring program ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Democrats obtain a majority in the house ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
-
Another US senator or representative will resign or be removed from office due to allegations of sexual harassment or assault ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I manage to climb a 5.11 wall at a rock climbing gym ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not travel to Asia, Europe, or South America ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.
-
I do not do any sort of work in a foreign country ( 70% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not visit a foreign country for 7+ days ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.
-
I hike antelope canyon ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Trump does not get impeached in 2018 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
There will be a 10+ fatality shooting ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
I move east of the Mississippi in 2018 ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
-
Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I visit Mexico at least once ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I take at least one road trip of more than 10 hours one way ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
I switch away from iPhone ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not live in my sisters spare bedroom for more than a month ( 80% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I will see Les Mis ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-05-18; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-22.
-
Russel M Nelson succeeds Monson ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
Trump is president at years end ( 91% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
Thomas Monson dies ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-04-24; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24.
-
I rent a place in Arizona ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-08-28.
-
I read 12+ books this year ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-05-29.
-
I do not start a blog or write regularly ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not become proficient at cooking for myself ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
I do not become a card carrying democrat ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-10-13.
-
I do not attend a rationality/lesswrong/SSC event or meetup ( 90% confidence )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
-
Republicans retain majorities in both the House and Senate after the 2018 mid terms ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2018-03-21; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2018-11-07.
-
Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2020-12-07.
-
Trump meets Kim ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-06-12.
-
[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
-
Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
-
Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
-
Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
-
The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
-
Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
-
Peter Thiel announces 2018 bid for California governorship ( 17% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-01-15; known on 2018-11-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
-
Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
-
Senator Elizabeth Warren will enter the Democratic Primary for President in the 2020 election. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Faceh on 2016-11-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
-
The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.