Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 65% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 91% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 1033 | 269 | 129 | 197 | 347 | 45 | 2020 |
Displaying all predictions made by themusicgod1. Filter by:
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I will manage to invest in ZCash ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-25; known on 2016-10-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30.
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Universal basic income will be an issue that comes up in the US 2020 election TV debates (primary or presidential) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Oliver Carefull on 2016-10-20; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by sole21000 on 2020-04-17.
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Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya ( 44% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-24; known on 2026-10-25.
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My configuration manager will be deployed on at least one server before 2016-11-15 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-24; known on 2016-11-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-15.
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Conditional on Gary Johnson getting 15% in 5 national polls, the Commission on Presidential Debates will invite him for a debate with Trump and Hillary. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-24; known on 2016-10-19.
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359 – 179 Clinton Trump Electoral Result ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will get at least 332 Electoral College votes in the 2016 Presidential Election. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by quanticle on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump will receive at least 43% of the popular vote in the 2016 US Presidential election. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by igorhorst on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton will win at least 320 electoral votes in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-22; known on 2016-12-22; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to in some way indicates Tesla motors is still a competitor ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20.
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SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Lucid Motors/Atieva launches a fully electric vehicle ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-18; known on 2026-10-18.
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08e7d33f4ee5c2357aec272a798dcb369b3bbff54214d1b0161e8d38982b387f ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-18; known on 2017-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-01.
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Julian Assange died before this prediction was made ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-21.
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My bike will still be at The Sheffield. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-10-15.
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Ubuntu upgrade on Hedy the Laptop will be successful (boot to at least usable gui/network/emacs) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16; known on 2016-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-16.
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One week from today, I will weigh less than 89.5kg. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-22; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-22.
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Tomorrow morning I will weigh more than I did this morning. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-15; known on 2016-10-16; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-16.
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Dalwa al Islamyya or one of their affiliates rules >50% of Yemen ( 54% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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I will be admitted to the Envision Conference at Princeton this year ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-14; known on 2016-10-17; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-10-16.
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Hillary Clinton to be convicted for an offense directly related to her email controversy. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-10-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2018-01-02.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fangnominous on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-11-09.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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I will be banned from diasporg ( 63% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-11; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-12.
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Clinton wins at least one of the following: AK, GA, MO ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-10-11; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Conditional on Joe Scarborough's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-10; known on 2066-10-10.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.
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Donald Trump will loose the presidential election and launch a news media channel in 2017 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by hoka on 2016-10-10; known on 2017-05-16; judged wrong by leo_grint on 2016-11-19.
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In tonight's debate, Trump will refer to either Bill Clinton's alleged rape of Juanita Broaddrick or Hillary Clinton's defense of Thomas Alfred Taylor (or both) ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-10.
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>128 people actively communicating using RahisiBhasha ( 4% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2023-12-31.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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I will clean up summer bike before summer, ie it won't sit covered in mud like the winter bike was during the summer ( 28% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-10-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11.
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I will read 45 or more books in 2016 ( 91% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-22.
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I spend less than $1000 next month. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of listing related or similar predictions on the prediction page (of PredictionBook) by the predictor ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2017-05-25.
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Within twenty (20) years there will be an option of grouping predictions on PredictionBook, and finding the average right to wrong ratio of them ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-10-07; known on 2036-10-07.
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PSA: There is an index of all public predictions at http://pbindex.neocities.org/ ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-10-07.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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[LoL Worlds] Korean team wins ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-11-01.
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No nuclear weapon detonated before 2017-06-01 killing >= 1 civilian before 2017-06-01 that we know about ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-06-01.
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No military coup / martial law / continuity of government takeover in the U.S before 2017-06-01 ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-06-01.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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My date with the pastry chef will be depressing ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-10-04; known on 2017-05-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-10-30.
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I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-05.
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I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-19.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.
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NASA InSight is launched successfully ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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China's Cap and Trade system still up and running ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-04; known on 2022-12-31.
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The Kim Kardashian kidnap/heist story is completely or mostly false. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bendini on 2016-10-03; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-10-10.
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3-4 “do everything” companies control 80%+ of hashrate of main cryptocurrency(Currently bitcoin) (ie companies that don't just provide hashes but large stack of services) ( 62% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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attawapiskat diamond mind starts to wind down production ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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I manage to submit a National Security Consultation submission ( 89% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-02; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-13.
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US will abandon the electoral college at any time before 2050 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-10-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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Nuclear weapon used by India or Pakistan on military target, at least 2 casualties ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2018-12-31.
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US alert warhead loading reduced to 790 at any point on 2018 ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-30; known on 2019-01-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Stan Stalnaker: 2018 Bots doing around $1T in transactions ( 88% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-23; known on 2018-12-31.
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No major attack attributable to Anonymous leading to mass death or @BiellaColeman still agrees “Anonymous are not terrorists” ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-24; known on 2018-12-01.
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I will be involved in a bike crash serious enough that the police or EMS will respond between 2016-10-01 and 2017-06-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-24; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-06-03.
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bitcoin volatility goes very high, with wild % swings in 2017. at least 6 90% swings. ( 8% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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A new ministry will be created in the Russian government. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-09-22.
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Scientists find evidence of new homo species in North America great lakes area that lived ~14ky ago ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2024-01-01.
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5 2013-londons worth of urban development gets created in 2017 ( 63% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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FISA Section 702 renewed ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-22; known on 2018-01-01.
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TBPL takes over NOIC small business development centre, writes them off as a partner. ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.
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Leah and the FSF will make amends, LibreBoot, including Leah will become GNU Libreboot again ( 11% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2021-09-21.
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Github will not censor libreboot corresponding source code off its service ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-21; known on 2023-01-01.
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If elected, Trump's presidency will lead to genocide in Syria by 2018 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ifonlyalabama on 2016-09-19; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by ifonlyalabama on 2016-12-13.
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Hillary will win the presidency ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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I will graduate medical school ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2020-05-16.
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Before 2019, Apple will announce a product that lets you dock/connect an iPhone to a desktop/laptop monitor + keyboard and use it like a desktop or laptop computer ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Major (>100 death toll) terrorist attack in Europe (all present and past EEA members) this year. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-02.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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I will contract Zika virus any time before 2018 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton drops out of the presidential race due to health reasons ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Harry Halpin on the payroll of, or otherwise compromised by the NSA/FVEY ( 53% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2026-04-29.
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78da4c28c143411c49c808a02702de83 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-12; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23.
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4% of world economy is cryptocurrency governed ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-11; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-31.
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Hillary Clinton wins all 112 electoral votes of the Northeast (New England, NY, NJ, DE, PA, MD, DC). ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-09-08; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Hillary Clinton is forced (called) to testify about private email server before the general election. ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-05-05; known on 2016-11-09.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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US + Russia only have 1,150 nuclear warheads as per START treaty ( 47% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-12-31.
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“Russia to meet the New START Treaty central limits in accordance with the stipulated timeline of February 2018” ( 47% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-03-01.
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consumer-level (if expensive) 2.5 micron resolution 3d printing in any material ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-12-31.
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Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
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Open Phil makes a grant on wild animal suffering within five years. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-09-07.
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Open Phil makes a grant on meat alternatives within five years. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2021-09-07; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-07-11.
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https://bugs.launchpad.net/ubuntu/source/electric/bug/475181 is still a valid bug in GNU electric 9.06+dfsg-1 ( 94% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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at least 1 person executed for tor use, tor project social contract pivot not ruled out as contributing factor ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-04; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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gene swap does happen at HOPE 12 ( 69% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2019-01-01.