Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 88% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 13 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tiresias. Filter by:
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Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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“Lindsay Lohan will be dead within 2 years.” ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-16.
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“Sometime in the next five years, there will be a terroristic attack in or near Las Vegas.” -David Henderson ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14; known on 2016-11-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-14.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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“Rick Perry to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-08-30; judged wrong by falenas108 on 2012-04-19.
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Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-31.
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“California state government will dissolve in default.” ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“By the year 2150, over 50% of schools in the USA or Western Europe will require classes in defending against robot attacks.” ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2150-01-01.
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The world will not end December 25, 2012. ( 98% confidence; 28 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2010-06-13; known on 2012-12-26; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-12-26.