Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The coastal trail will take less than 6 hours tomorrow ( 65% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.
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The coastal trail will take less than 8 hours tomorrow ( 85% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-30; known on 2011-05-01; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-01.
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I will NOT get anyone from work or uni sick by the end of the week. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-15; known on 2011-03-22; judged wrong by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.
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Petrol price's average in Sydney won't be below $1.40 (excluding discounts and vouchers) until the end of April ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jessica Hartany on 2011-03-20; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by Jessica Hartany on 2011-05-01.
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“Fukushima 1 evacuation radius to be 30km or more before midnight ET 30 April 2011” – Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-05-01.
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There will be a terrorist attack in the UK/Ireland this Friday ( 15% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.
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The vicar will pronounce William or Kate's name wrong during the Royal Wedding. ( 1% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.
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My soccer game will be called off this weekend. ( 80% confidence )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-28; known on 2011-04-30; judged right by DavidPercival on 2011-04-30.
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I will talk to more than 100 people on Saturday ( 65% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by wael on 2011-04-30.
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A student will appear at the TA office for antitrust in the next hour. ( 2% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29; known on 2011-04-29; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-29.
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There'll be 3 ALIEN related reports on the news this month. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-01; known on 2011-05-01; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-29.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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I will have a presentation on Thursday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-28; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-28.
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My Car's angels eyes order will come the end of next week! :( too late! ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-28; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-28.
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I will be at the library everyday until the mid semester break ( 80% confidence )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-05; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by minhduc on 2011-04-28.
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i will go to fishing this Easter! ( 80% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-27.
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David Percival will finish all of the requirements of Ben's studio by week 9 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-03-23; known on 2011-04-27; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-27.
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Man United won't be able to beat Schalke tonight ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-27.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste bad for me. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste good for me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.
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Hazelnut syrup and Diet Dr Pepper taste so-so for me. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-26.
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I will write on blog 3 times during Easter holiday. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-20; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Eunseo on 2011-04-26.
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At least one group member will not show up before 11am tomorrow. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.
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Group meeting will finish before 11.30 tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.
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At least one group member will not have read the assignment for tomorrow. ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-25; known on 2011-04-26; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-26.
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My diarrhoea will stop tomorrow. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alvinTng on 2011-04-21; known on 2011-04-22; judged wrong by alvinTng on 2011-04-23.
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There will be more than 4 people in attendance at the Sydney Less Wrong meetup at some point while I'm there. http://bit.ly/dXMiL0 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-22; known on 2011-04-24; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-23.
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I will get new mornitor within this week. ( 30% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-27; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.
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I will go easter show on Friday. ( 99% confidence )
Created by sailoryoon on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-22; judged right by sailoryoon on 2011-04-22.
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My sketch design will finish after 3 days? ( 25% confidence )
Created by wael on 2011-04-14; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by wael on 2011-04-22.
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Barcelona will win the copa del ray. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by puya on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.
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Real Madrid will win Copa del Rey 2010/11 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.
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“Barcelona will beat Real Madrid 5-0 in the Copa del Rey final” – Barcelona president Sandro Rosell ( 10% confidence )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-03; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-04-21.
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Tottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-21.
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Tottenham will defeat Real Madrid on aggregate in the Champions League ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-04-06; known on 2011-04-21; judged wrong by DavidPercival on 2011-04-21.
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MUFC will beat Newcastle united by 2:0 ( 40% confidence )
Created by dumun on 2011-04-19; known on 2011-04-20; judged wrong by dumun on 2011-04-20.
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The high school student that FY is meeting today will accept the request to develop the iOS app that she wants. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18; known on 2011-04-18; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2011-04-18.
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Real Madrid will win Barcelona on Sunday ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by minhduc on 2011-04-15; known on 2011-04-17; judged wrong by minhduc on 2011-04-17.
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Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-17.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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The string cheese that I left in the TA office is still there. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-16; known on 2011-04-17; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2011-04-17.
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Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-17.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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my cold will cover next 3 days, please! ( 80% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-04-16; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.
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my nose will recover “cold” tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-09; known on 2011-04-10; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.
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I will finish The Making of Hongkong by midnight today ( 90% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-04; known on 2011-04-04; judged right by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.
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I can not finish Core this week, can not finish Book “Learning from Japanese city by this week” ( 90% confidence )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-26; known on 2011-04-30; judged wrong by nam2001 on 2011-04-16.