Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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LTC cryptocurrency litecoin will hit $400 by 3/1/18 ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-01-29; known on 2018-03-02; judged wrong by DanMotorcycleGuy on 2018-03-02.
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US GDP growth lower in 2017 than in 2016 ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by asdfjklasdfjkl on 2018-03-01.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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Politics, US – John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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“Battle suits” will be ready for field testing by either US/NATO/China/Russia featuring exoskeleton, display over faceplate, power monitoring, health monitoring, integrating a weapon ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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(&) will become idiomatic in widespread Haskell code, from the beginner level within two years ( 99% confidence )
Created by jle on 2014-07-26; known on 2016-07-26; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-26.
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Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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complete 000004 22Feb18 ( 68% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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I finish 000003 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000002 completed 22Feb18 ( 5% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000001 takes longer than 1 hour ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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000001 completed 22Feb18 ( 65% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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I finish 000000 22Feb18 ( 10% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-22; known on 2018-02-23; judged wrong by pkfalu92 on 2018-02-24.
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I bet that when I get done with taking the PE, traveling around the world for ~14 months, I'll get a job in web development in Raleigh and invest in rental properties and hang out with Jay. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-11-01; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2018-02-23.
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I will keep the laptop I ordered ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-21; known on 2018-02-21; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-02-22.
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The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
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JF will attend dinner tonight ( 35% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-17; known on 2018-02-17; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-18.
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RK will attend dinner tonight ( 30% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-17; known on 2018-02-17; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-02-18.
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JD will attend my talk ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-16; known on 2018-02-15; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-02-16.
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Morgan Tsvangirai ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-16.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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The track “Narcos” by Migos will peak in their top 3 Spotify songs sometime in 2018 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-01-31; known on 2018-12-16; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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My phone alarm will malfunction at least once more before July. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-14; known on 2018-06-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-02-15.
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[Star Trek: Disco] Gur svanyr perngrf be qvfpbiref n gvzryvar jurer gur riragf bs gur cvybg bppheerq qvssreragyl. ( 40% confidence )
Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-02-12; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2018-02-14.
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Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2018-02-12; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-02-14.
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I will not fall behind on my fitness goal this quarter. Meaning, specifically, that I will not have to lie to Beeminder twice in a row. ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Enzar on 2018-01-20; known on 2018-03-23; judged wrong by Enzar on 2018-02-13.
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Main bitcoin branch/fork valued at $27,395 bitstampUSD ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-02-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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Packers sign Milwaukee native Colin Kaepernick as QB, who leads them to the Superbowl ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-10-16; known on 2018-02-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-12.
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(@AudaciousEpigon or @Inductivist) gets suspended by twitter in 2017 along with at least one more HBD-associated with account. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-02-11.
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US government shuts down again sometime in 2018. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-02-09.
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STOCK- the US equity market will experience a mini-crash by the end of 2017 ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by juncholi on 2017-10-30; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Flenser on 2018-02-09.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-06.
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The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.
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2017 to be the warmest year ever ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-02-06.
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The New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII ( 55% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-02; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-05.
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Productivity – I am still trying to using Worksnaps at due date such that I wish to continue paying for it. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2018-01-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Tech – Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Sc will be blegh ( 8% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-05.
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Dr. Bob says closing stock price of CPG – $37.50 or higher, 75% sure based on predictions of oil. I'm more than that sure just based on inflation and basic economic growth. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Dr Bob predicts, based on oil industry, certainty of 75%, that BNE will be $50 or higher on the TSE ( 80% confidence )
Created by kjaques on 2015-01-24; known on 2018-01-23; judged wrong by kjaques on 2018-02-03.
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Scott (of slatestarcodex)'s accuracy / calibration will be about as good as it was last year, not materially worse ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2017 real economic growth rate will be 0.87%. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2018-01-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-03.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.3 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Facebook will report more than 1.4 billion DAUs for December 2017, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2018-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-02-02.
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Falcon Heavy to launch (successfully or not) in January 2018. ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-02.