Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Night 11: pill was Vitamin D ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-11; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-11.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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NGE: 3.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Night 10: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-10.
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GJP: #1057 Will the Russian military deploy* additional Iskander missiles before 1 February 2013? ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-01.
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GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1062 Will the daily Europe Brent Crude FOB spot price per barrel be greater than or equal to $150 before 3 April 2012? ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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GJP: #1060 Will Christian Wulff resign or vacate the office of President of Germany before 1 April 2012? ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged right by faws on 2012-02-18.
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GJP: #1061 Will Syria’s Arab League membership be reinstated* by 31 December 2012? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GJP: #1058 By 1 April 2012, will Egypt officially announce its withdrawal from its 1979 peace treaty with Israel? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1055 Will North Korea successfully detonate a nuclear weapon, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater, between 9 January 2012 and 1 April 2012? ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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GJP: #1059 Will Kim Jong-un attend an official, in-person meeting with any G8 head of government* before 1 April 2012? ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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Night 9: pill was Vitamin D ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-09.
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No elected government will hold power in Egypt in 2012 ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by _W_ on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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“9. Facebook hits 1 billion users” —Brian Breslin ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Salesforce will buy Hootsuite and/or Klout. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“3. LivingSocial catches up to Groupon” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Square Inc. will be bought or merged within 5 years. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2017-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-08.
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“Square will get bought out by Amex or Visa” —Brian Breslin ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Night 8: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2013. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Copyright is challenged in a US court as unconstitutional before 2016. The case is not dismissed without hearing. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-07.
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Copyright ruled unconstitutional by a US court before 2016. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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I will become a Peter Thiel Fellow. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-08-06; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-05.
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Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within 2 months ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-08.
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Part 2 of Shikamaru vs the Logical Fallacies to be ready within a month ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-02-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-08.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Night 7: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.
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Yoshimoto Banana will win a Nobel Prize for Literature. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2046-01-01.
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There will be a general strike in Spain on 2012 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2012-03-09.
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Riemann's Hypothesis and Goldbach's Conjecture will be resolved before a proof is found of whether White wins or ties chess. —Doron Zeilberger ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2112-01-06.
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Night 6: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-06.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Ballmer will step down as MS CEO and be replaced by Eric Schmidt —Cringely ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“A new Microsoft CEO” [Ballmer steps down] —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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The US Mint has resumed printing $2 bills since I checked in 2005 (thus explaining the new-looking $2 I received as change at IFC). ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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The IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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Night 5: pill was vitamin D. ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Prediction #4: Motorola buys TiVO” —Cringely ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Night 4: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-04.
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The Church of Kopimism will have over 20k members by 2013. Prediction will be withdrawn if membership stats aren't available. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 500) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Bitcoins will be accepted by at least one major online trader of legal goods” (top 100) ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Julian Assange will not be convicted in Sweden of charges related to August 2010 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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NGE: 4.0 will be released in 2012 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Night 3: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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“Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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AMZN market cap >= 0.25 * AAPL on 31 December 2012. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Apple will get a new CEO in 2012” [not Tim Cook] —Cringeley ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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My mother will not read any books by Steven Pinker this year ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will not become a vegetarian in 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-27.
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The Hubble Telescope will continue functioning though 2012 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Humans will continue to have at least one functioning probe on Martian surface or a satellite around Mars for all of 2012 ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will coauthor at least one paper on integer complexity in 2013 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will read at least 15 novels of the Maria-sama ga Miteru series in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-01-05.
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There will be improvement in efficient matrix multiplication in 2012 that will be discussed in at least one of the following blogs: Combinatorics and more, Shetl-Optimized, Godel's Lost Letter. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The relationship between P and BQP will not be resolved in 2012. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will not be proven in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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In 2012, Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities, or the North Korean government will collapse. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Night 2: pill was Vitamin D. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
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Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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There will be a driverless car available for purchase for less than $100,000 (inflation adjusted to Jan 1, 2012) in the US in 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2022-09-25.
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Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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12 Angry Men will be #5 or higher on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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The Shawshank Redemption will be #1 on imdb's top 250 on Jan 1, 2013. (it is currently #1) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Evangelion manga: Third Impact will be controlled by/center around Asuka ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.
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Evangelion manga: Shinji and/or Asuka will defeat the MP Evas ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-02; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-05.
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MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
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Night 1: pill was Vitamin D. ( 70% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-01.
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Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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The James Webb Telescope will launch successfully by the end of 2019 ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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united Korea’s GDP > Japan in 2050 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2050-01-01.