Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 41% | 46% | 71% | 86% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 34 | 41 | 41 | 50 | 67 | 3 | 236 |
Displaying all predictions made by Athrithalix. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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We will fairly convincingly know who Satoshi Nakamoto is in five years. ( 20% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JohnGreer on 2018-04-13; known on 2023-04-13; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Soyuz MS-14 to launch as scheduled on August 22, 2019 ( 70% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-08-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-22.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Number of human truck drivers in the US to fall by 50% by 2024 EOY ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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C will rate Perfect Blue lower than 7 ( 67% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-17.
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C will rate Perfect Blue lower than 8 ( 85% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-17.
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Living thylacine specimen to be confirmed in 2019 ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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I will best W at table football this lunchtime. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-23.
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Politics – Trump claims that the North Koreans were not serious/deceptive about the meeting between him and Kim Jong Un at some point before the end of June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-10; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-07-07.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-08.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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A single Block 5 Falcon 9 booster will launch 10 times during 2019. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-18; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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A single Falcon 9 Block 5 core will launch twice within 24 hours during 2019. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Tech – Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
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James Webb Space Telescope to breach its $8bn cost cap. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-03; known on 2018-07-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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JF will be selected for interview. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-30; known on 2018-04-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-30.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trumps approval rating never rises above 50% in 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Trumps approval rating never dips below 30% in 2018 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Serious impeachment proceedings begin against Trump ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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There is no deadly confrontation between North Korea and US armed Forces in 2018 ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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I will best C at table football this lunchtime. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-23; known on 2018-04-23; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-23.
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Gene drive found in the wild due to either unknown or rogue scientist in the wild before any gene drive released by a major NGO. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-04-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The first flight of the Block 5 Falcon 9 carrying the Bangabandhu 1 will successfully orbit the payload and perform a low stress landing. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-17; known on 2018-05-15; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-05-15.
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Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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World War 3 to begin in 2018. (Formal war involving at least three large, developed nations, with some on separate sides). ( 0% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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I will take my car into town on Friday, not the bike or bus. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-04; known on 2018-04-06; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-06.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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TESS will launch before the end of April (there will be no further major delays to its launch). ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2018-05-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-27.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 5 year's time. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2023-03-29; judged wrong by sortega on 2023-04-08.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time. ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 3 year's time. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2021-03-29.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 2 year's time. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2020-03-29; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-04-30.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 1 year's time. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-29.
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Youtube channel Tech Ingredients will reach 200,000 subscribers (Currently 14k) within 2 years ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-03-28; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by bendini on 2019-07-07.
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I will not attend S' birthday celebrations. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-04-02; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-04-03.
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US National Debt will cross $22 trillion by December 31, 2018. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2018-03-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-01.
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Within 6 months, a bombing campaign will start in Iran. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2018-03-24; known on 2018-07-24; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Electron rocket to launch before the end of March. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Jotto999 on 2018-04-01.
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Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.
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“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Smash for Switch will support 8-player smash. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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Smash for switch will support the use of Gamecube controllers, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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There will be a story mode in Smash for Switch. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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There will be no Smash Tour minigame in Smash for Switch. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by gallerdude on 2018-12-10.
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Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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Another Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Another character from Breath of the Wild will be added in Smash for Switch, either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2020-12-07.
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Another character from the Metroid series will be added in Smash for Switch either on release or within 18 months of release. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Lucina ( 53% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Baby Bowser ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Charizard ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Robin ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Duck Hunt Duo ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Wii Fit Trainer ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Dark Pit ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Ryu ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Bayonetta ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Cloud ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[The following character will not appear in Smash for Switch upon release:] Pacman ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-06-12.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo ( 50% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon ( 40% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong ( 58% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox ( 10% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling ( 50% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Bowser ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike ( 65% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik ( 15% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Dr Mario ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff ( 72% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda ( 80% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf ( 69% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth ( 20% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
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I will end up as one of the drivers on Tuesday or Wednesday. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2018-03-21; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22.
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PP will defeat Hbox in 2018. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by fairfax on 2018-03-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ambisinister on 2018-12-28.
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Vector to delay their first commercial launch past end of July. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-12; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Politics, UK – Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-04-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-15.