Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 83% | 80% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 49 | 46 | 61 | 179 | 20 | 376 |
Displaying all predictions made by PlacidPlatypus. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry/Hermione will be the only romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Draco/Luna will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Ginny will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Tracey will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry/Draco will be a romantic pairing in the Methods of Rationality. ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: There will be at least one onscreen polyamorous relationship in the Methods of Rationality. ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality will have an arc/chapter involving Harry getting a harem. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-01-01.
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[LoL Worlds] Finals won by Korean team. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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[LoL Worlds] At least one Korean team in finals. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-20.
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TSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
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Cloud 9 wins 2014 NA LCS Summer Finals. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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HP MoR: Voldemort never intended Harry's own death on the night of his parents' death. ( 50% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sirius Black ( 12% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2011-09-04; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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I will be ranked Diamond League in Starcraft II 1v1 by the end of the school year. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2012-09-17; known on 2013-05-15; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2013-05-15.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president in 2016. ( 38% confidence; 25 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-27.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore did not kill Narcissa, but claimed he did. ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Hat & Cloak is not a character from canon. He is, in fact, a character from an anime. ( 1% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore deliberately arranged for Voldemort to learn of the prophecy about his defeat. ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The Peverell tombstone (“The last enemy that shall be destroyed is death”) will be quoted or clearly alluded to at some point. ( 71% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Flailingjunk on 2013-07-25.
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HP MoR: Creation of a Philosopher's Stone requires the sacrifice of human life. (a la Shyy Zrgny Nypurzvfg) ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry's conclusion about the blood of Atlantis and the origin of magic is deeply flawed in some respect. ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-03-09.
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HP MoR: Methods of Rationality or a derivative work wins a Hugo Award in or before 2016. ( 11% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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HP MoR: Gilderoy Lockhart will be Sir Not Appearing In This Fanfic ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is in Hogwarts ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban and the person in Azkaban is Peter Pettigrew ( 60% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Sirius Black is not in Azkaban ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Bellatrix Black is a Horcrux ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Peter Pettigrew is dead ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Lucius Malfoy believes Harry to be Voldemort as of ch83 ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy to send a message to the Death Eaters to stop attacking Order of the Phoenix relatives ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy because she was a Horcrux ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy by accident ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Amelia Bones ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy was killed by Voldemort ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Dumbledore killed Narcissa Malfoy ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy is dead ( 72% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Quirrel ( 70% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Helena Ravenclaw (the Grey Lady ghost) ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Sybil Trelawney ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Leroy Lockhart ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Harry (future or present) ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Dumbledore ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is Severus Snape ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat has Obliviated Blaise Zabini's mother ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Voldemort is Quirrel's wand or is contained within it ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Harry is a Horcrux and Voldemort knows this ( 72% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: All Voldemort's horcruxes except the Pioneer probe will be destroyed, and Voldemort is doomed to wander the cosmos forever, and this outcome will be either planned or permitted by Harry ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-03-20.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 79% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley ( 90% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2013-08-05.
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HP MoR: Sybil Trelawney will prophesy the unspoken ch63 prophecy when she comes within earshot of Harry ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-13.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Hat & Cloak ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Remus Lupin ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Sirius Black ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Voldemort ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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HP MoR: ch21: The unheard prophecy by Sybil Trelawney refers to: Harry ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-06-30.
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Antibiotics to become useless within 10 years. —Tim Walsh ( 12% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-13; known on 2020-08-13; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-08-13.
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“In the year 2050, there will not be an operating fusion power plant — a device that generates net energy via a nuclear fusion reaction and transmits it to the electrical grid — anywhere in the world.” ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-12-31.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.