Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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I will complete The Complete Idiot's Guide to Physics: Second Edition before 2013. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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We will obtain our DDD contract by June 2012. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-03-30; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Primeval on 2012-06-03.
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My wife and I will complete the 2nd version of the business plan within the next 36 hours. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
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I will obtain the CompTIA Linux+ Powered by LPI certification before 2013. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will obtain the CompTIA Security+ certification before 2013. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will complete my Network+ Anki deck in less than 48 hours from now. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-30.
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i won't get present for easter at all ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by happyday on 2012-03-27; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by happyday on 2012-04-07.
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HPMoR : ch 81 : Harry will marry Hermione and thereby make this a matter between noble houses, and then turn that into a trial by lightsaber of hermy and draco ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rohit507 on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-27; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-28.
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The minecraft apocalypse server (reddit/r/mcapoc) will be wiped in the next year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Danny_Hintze on 2013-07-05.
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At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.
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Ben won't show up to the tutorial today (23/3/12) ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23; known on 2012-03-23; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-03-23.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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I will retest my IQ in 60 days and it will be at least 5 points greater than it is today. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-05-08; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-05-11.
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By 2020, there will have been at least 5 assassinations that were predicted by a prediction market (and known as such). ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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I will read Deus Ex: Icarus Effect in less than 1 month from now. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-04-05; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-21.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy Club is operational before 2020. ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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I will get a remote researcher position at the Singularity Institute before the end of the month. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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I will continue posting on my blog until the end of this year. ( 50% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will have uploaded a playable version of a computer game before the first of July 2012. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by antsan on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by antsan on 2012-07-13.
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I will make it to the top of camelback mountain tomorrow morning. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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The DirectTV guy won't be able to install our satellite dish on our West facing balcony. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Primeval on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-02-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-11.
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Price of bitcoin to be less than $10 on MtGox at 00:01am on July 10. GMT ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by _W_ on 2012-02-10; known on 2012-07-10; judged right by _W_ on 2012-07-11.
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I will purchase Deus Ex 3 within 1 week and complete it (at least once) in less than 2 weeks after purchase. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-17.
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Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/10/2012. ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.
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Sets, Logic, and Maths for Computing will arrive on or before 04/05/2012. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-04-06; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-24.
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My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/17/2012. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-18; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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My Network+ exam guide will arrive on or before 02/13/2012. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08; known on 2012-02-14; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-10.
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Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.
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There will be at least one human being alive on earth even after the end of the year 2012 ( 99% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by vinayak on 2012-02-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by vinayak on 2013-01-01.
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I will complete exercise 11 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 28 hours. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-02-08; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-08.
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I will complete The Pragmatic Programmer before March, 2012. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-03-04.
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I will complete Exercise 10 of Learning Ruby the Hard Way within the next 26 hours. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-02-07.
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I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-12-20.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will get a boyfriend this year. ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.
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I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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My grandmother will die this year. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2050, body modification enthusiasts will have printed custom body augmentations through 3D printing technology. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2050-01-01.
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By 2025, a living multicellular organism will be printed using 3D printing technology. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will watch all 75 episodes of Hikaru no Go before 2013. ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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My nausea will end within 30 minutes of taking 520mg of activated charcoal. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29; known on 2012-01-29; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-29.
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gwern will have a fulltime non-contractor with-benefits jobs at SIAI within 3 months —shminux ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2012-04-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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Less Wrong will have a “limited-access forum” before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-26; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Jeff will defriend me on Facebook sometime in the next three days. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-01-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-09.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will ask out the person I currently have a crush on. They will say no. ( 65% confidence; 11 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by Leo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Leo on 2012-01-30.
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I will complete every tutorial and drill in Chessmaster: Grandmaster Edition before 2013. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will read and complete every exercise within Learn Ruby the Hard Way before July 2012. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03.
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“I predict that I or my team will win (1st place) for the Quantified Health Prize. (70%)” —Kevin ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-02-18.
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I will obtain a CompTIA Network+ certification before 2013. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will obtain a CompTIA A+ certification before 2013. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-28.
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United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Federal investigation of Chris Dodd and/or the MPAA for bribery before the end of this year. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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My interpretation of wedrifid's position is “about right”. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-22.
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Before the end of the year, PredictionBook will offer weighted averages for the community confidence in a prediction, and/or offer an API for others to do so. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2012-01-20; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-01-01.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Diabetes cured by 2092 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2092-01-01.
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“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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I will successfully complete an internet programming job (PHP/Rails/something like that) on oDesk and be paid for it before May 1. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-05-01.
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Google Search will be inaccessible to US visitors for at least 4 hours due to a “blackout” protesting pending legislation, before 2013 ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Iran will not successfully test a nuclear weapon in 2012. ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.
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Future Cities Development Inc. will found at least one settlement in a special development region in Honduras and it will have a population of equal to or greater than 500 before 2013. ( 5% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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I will be defrauded, stolen from, robbed, burgled, or assaulted during my stay in Mexico City. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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I will be murdered during my stay in Mexico City. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-17.
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The Less Wrong user calcsam will publicly deconvert from Mormonism before 2015. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-12-01.
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Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-02-01.
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The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Chris Brown will be arrested for assault, domestic violence, or criminal damage before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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A previously unreleased song by Michael Jackson will be released sometime before 2013. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Dark Knight Rises will be released in 2012 and will obtain Rotten Tomotoes score of at equal to or greater than 50% and equal or less than 85%. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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At least three papers with the word “connectomics” in their title or abstract will be published in Nature in 2012. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2020 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.