Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 62% | 76% | 80% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 300 | 260 | 195 | 249 | 347 | 149 | 1500 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jayson Virissimo. Filter by:
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The majority of public schools in Arizona will not require students to utilize spaced repetition software at any point within the next 10 years. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-25; known on 2024-04-25.
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I will get accepted to App Academy before 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-15.
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David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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The PLQ will win the April 2014 Quebec elections. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-04-08; judged right by Mati on 2014-04-09.
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The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Elder Scrolls Online will sell over 10 million copies within a year of release (across all platforms), becoming the worlds largest MMORPG ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-02-09; known on 2015-04-04; judged wrong by jasticE on 2015-04-19.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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2014 Less Wrong Survey will have < 20% female. ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-06.
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In 2014, there is a mass shooting in USA killing > 10 people. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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US government will survive the year without large civil war/revolt. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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2014: No one will win $1billion from Warren Buffett by submitting a perfect NCAA pool ( 99% confidence; 16 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2014-03-27.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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I will leave my italian duolingo streak unbroken until at least January 1st, 2015 ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mad on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by mad on 2015-01-01.
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I will get an 'A' or better in PHI 313: Probability, Evidence, and Decision. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-06-02; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-05-14.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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I will read 12 books before 2015. ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-29.
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I will complete the Spanish skill tree on Duolingo before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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I will earn the compostela by walking the Way of Saint James before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-08.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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Dogecoin will be worth less than 40 Satoshis ($0.00036240) at June 2014. (At 3 Jan 2014 bitcoin prices) ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-01-03; known on 2014-06-17; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-06-17.
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The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.
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A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged unknown by tedks on 2021-06-14.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-12.
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I will visit Spain before 2015. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-04-20.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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A country with >1,000,000 population will write the official version of their laws in a conlang (Esperanto/Lojban etc.) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-10-29; known on 2053-10-30.
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43a4c3b7d0a0654e1919ad6e7cbfa6f8d41bcce8f1320fbe511b6d7c38609ce5a2d39328e02e9777b339152987ea02b3f8adb57d84377fa7ccb708658b7d2edc ( 74% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-03; known on 2014-06-03; judged right by gwern on 2014-06-03.
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Dragos Ruiu's “badBIOS” claims will be verified as true and due to a attack package akin to Flame/Stuxnet ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-01; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-11-01.
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BoB: MtGox will support Litecoin on its exchange by year end 2013. ( 20% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-11-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by nshepperd on 2014-01-03.
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The Obamacare “exchanges will be working at the end of November”. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
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I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
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PubMed's comment system will be shut down before 2015. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24.
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PubMed's comment system will have some form of human moderation before 2015. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2015-01-01.
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I will post something new on my blog before November. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-24; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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I will score greater than 85% on my MAT 265 Mastery Test. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-22; known on 2013-10-24; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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SR: DPR will not be found guilty on charges of money laundering (or conspiracy to commit money laundering). ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-10-03; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-11.
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Luke Muehlhauser will cease regularly using modafinil more than 3 times a week or will report tolerance ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-28; known on 2012-10-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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Government shutdown will continue past Oct 15, 2013 (ie more than 2 weeks since its beginning) ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-10-16; judged right by prototrout on 2013-10-16.
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http://www.rememberthe13th.com/ NASA has made a historic discovery that will shake the entire planet. This announcement will be released to the media on November 13th, 2013. It will be a day to remember and One for the history books. Nothing world sha ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mimosomal on 2013-10-04; known on 2013-11-13; judged wrong by procran on 2013-11-13.
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The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, or USA Today will publish an article concerning Jonathan Foster's murder before 2014. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-29.
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Government shutdown to end by October 25 ( 71% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-10-01; known on 2013-10-25; judged right by nshepperd on 2013-10-17.
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There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2023. ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qap on 2013-09-21; known on 2024-01-01.
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Democratic candidate to win 2016 presidential election by greater margin than Obama did in 2012. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-09-20; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will publically convert to Roman Catholicism before 2025. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-02.
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I will publically convert to Islam before 2025. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will publically convert to Buddhism before 2025. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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I will get an A or better in CSE 205: Object-Oriented Programming and Data Structures. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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I will get an A or better in MAT 265: Calculus for Engineers I. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-05; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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No one will win Sam Harris's prize for convincing him that his book is wrong ( 87% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-01; known on 2014-11-01; judged right by Matt2000 on 2014-11-01.
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US to launch strikes on Syria by September 21, 2013 ( 23% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31; known on 2013-09-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-21.
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Predictionbook's overall statistics will remain overconfident (Confidence > accuracy in all six buckets) by 2015. ( 82% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-08-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by atroche on 2015-01-01.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.
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I will complete all Duolingo lessons for Spanish before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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I will get an A or better on my CSE 110 final tomorrow. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2013-08-19; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-14.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 15,000 cards before 2014. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-19.
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Dexter's protégé will kill him before the end of Season 8. ( 25% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-11; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2014-01-22.
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The Overdue Predictions page on PredictionBook will be modified to not display withdrawn or changed to private (by someone else) predictions by 2014. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-08-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-01.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be 100%. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Geo-engineering to cool earth will be implemented with global impact before we reduce the output of greenhouse gases to the level of 1900. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tristan on 2013-08-06; known on 2060-01-01.
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Shenmue HD will be released before 2014. ( 33% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Quirrell. ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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HP MoR: The snake patronus is from Draco. ( 90% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2013-08-21; judged right by lavalamp on 2013-08-15.
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A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
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Vitor will crawl at least 6 feet in less than 30 seconds before he is 7 months old. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-19; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-29.
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HP MoR: It will be revealed (either in the story or by Eliezer outside it) that it is impossible to lie in Parseltongue. ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by 75th on 2013-07-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-03.
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At some point before 2014, 1% or more of my investment portfolio will be in Bitcoin. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-16; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-11.
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I will get a A or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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I will get a B or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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I will get a C or better in CSE 110: Principles of Programming with Java. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-08-17.
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Within the next week there will be one or more riots attributed to the Zimmerman verdict by a mainstream news outlet. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-14; known on 2013-07-21; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2013-07-21.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Dexter Season 8: Dexter goes to jail ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2013-07-13; known on 2013-09-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-09-23.