Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 6 |
Displaying all predictions made by danohu. Filter by:
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $100/bbl in August ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by moridinamael on 2015-08-17.
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Oil price (Brent crude) will be above $60/bbl in August ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by moridinamael on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-08-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-08-16.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Vinay Deolalikar's proof of P≠NP will not be accepted by the Clay Mathematics Institute. ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-09; known on 2015-08-09; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-09.