Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.
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We will play BN tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.
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We will play T C tomorrow ( 30% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.
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“The Freedom Tower to be officially opened before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-06; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-05.
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M will make a prediction on H's MI grade. ( 90% confidence )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-04; judged wrong by adri on 2014-12-05.
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I will complete the Ana Pana course in Esperanto by December. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-11; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
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I will manage at least one ascension in this year's /dev/null ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-15; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-12-04.
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Audrey's greenhouse will contain real live plants in 1 month ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-04.
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My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.
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I will get a reply from Trinity before Wednesday ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.
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If I receive it, Trinity's reply will be positive ( 50% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.
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Date with FMK by or on 1st December 2014 ( 41% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-02; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-02.
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The information collected by PRISM that's listed as being from Google and Facebook will turn out to have been collected via some means other than a backdoor API/access provided by the companies themselves. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-02.
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I will have begun using Evernote by next week ( 90% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01.
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SR: Ross Ulbricht charges re: “conspiring to murder” will turn out not to be true ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-10-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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In the 2014 election, someone will make a serious run for Congress, Senate or Governor as a secessionist ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-01.
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There will be just as much opposition protesting in Ukraine by March 2014 and there will have been further clashes with government forces. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by refnum on 2014-02-21; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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There will be a notable tragedy during new years celebrations somewhere in the world tonight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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It will snow in Southern Ontario (Canada) in April ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by satayana on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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>0 combat fatalities (civil unrest excluded) within Ukrainian borders ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by procran on 2014-03-02; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Homicide rate per 100,000 in Canada to be lower in 2013 than in 2012. (Deciding source: StatCan) ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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A will submit application to DIKU instructorship before deadline. ( 85% confidence )
Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 85% confidence )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its October 30 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 15% confidence )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-10-30; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of less than $45 billion per month. ( 25% confidence )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of $40 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase Treasury securities at a rate of $45 billion per month. ( 75% confidence )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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In its December 18 statement, the Federal Open Market Committee will announce a decision to purchase mortgage-backed securities at a rate of more than $40 billion per month. ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by foo on 2013-10-05; known on 2013-12-18; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Clojure will move up in the rankings of The Transparent Language Popularity Index by the end of 2013. ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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This year will DEFINITELY BE BETTER than the previous year. Last year really sucked. Please guys, work to make this real! Work to make this year RULE! ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pandster on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Gwern will teach/contribute/ta a mooc within 2 years ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by paulharris on 2012-09-22; known on 2014-09-22; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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I will still be using this in a year. ( 65% confidence )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-11-18; known on 2014-11-17; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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At least 10% of MRI images uploaded to radiopaedia.org will be of resolution greater than 512×512px (upscaling doesn't count). ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Matt on 2011-10-19; known on 2013-10-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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I will get a number directly from a street approach by or on 1st December ( 12% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
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NC probability girl by or on 1st December 2014 ( 37% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
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Date by or on 30/11 ( 40% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
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Number Close BOTH by 1st December ( 7% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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QPR will beat or draw against Leicester ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
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Arsenal will beat or draw against West Brom ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.
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Liverpool will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.