Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by earfluffy. Filter by:
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The Chivalry: Medieval Warfare 'competitive' community will lose >50% of its current membership by 2016 ( 12% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-12; known on 2016-01-01.
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Torn Banner Studios will announce their Unreal Engine 4 project before 2016 ( 40% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-19; known on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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I will attempt to learn Haskell by August 20th, 2015 without stopping partway through ( 60% confidence )
Created by earfluffy on 2015-05-19; known on 2015-08-20; judged wrong by earfluffy on 2015-08-21.
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Superintelligence will be created within 30 years from 7th May 2015 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLundborg on 2015-05-07; known on 2045-05-08.