Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Labour's current civil war (progress/unite) will cause the formation of a successful and large second party. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-11-11; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-20.
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6 beats 12 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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11 beats 5 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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10 beats 4 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 60% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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3 beats 9 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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8 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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7 beats 2 http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/l0n/youre_entitled_to_everyones_opinion/bcus ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20; known on 2014-09-20; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-20.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote NO on independence. ( 74% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote in favour of independence in the 2014 referendum ( 28% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Scotland will vote Yes on independence with a margin of less than 5%. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by chalicier on 2014-09-18; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by chalicier on 2014-09-19.
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Decommissioning of extract will be completed without issue. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-18; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-19.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a month ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2014-09-18; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-18.
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iWatch will not be called iWatch. ( 60% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by Quintrino on 2014-09-18.
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I will be recovered from my illness within two days ( 80% confidence )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-02; judged wrong by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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I will get into my first choice for university ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by thostian on 2013-07-31; known on 2013-08-20; judged right by thostian on 2014-09-16.
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Our old hot sauce was not Durkee brand. ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-16.
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I will submit exactly 1 paper by Sept 15 ( 40% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-16.
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RUB/USD will reach 38/1 (according to CBR) at least once before 2015. ( 70% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-29; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-16.
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I finish all five items on my “To Do Today” list tomorrow. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-09-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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Malcome Turnbull will be the next PM of Australia? ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dkidston on 2012-02-08; known on 2013-11-16; judged right by Mike on 2014-09-16.
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The place I will be living in in Edinburgh in 2014/15 academic year will have been booked (or near equivalent) before I have landed in the UK. ( 55% confidence )
Created by azatris on 2014-08-16; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by azatris on 2014-09-15.
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[MtG] The “manlands” from Worldwake will be reprinted in Khans of Tarkir. ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Roxolan on 2014-09-06; known on 2014-09-26; judged wrong by Serge on 2014-09-15.
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I go to swamp meet sunday ( 50% confidence )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-15; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-15.
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Au minimum 3/4 de l'équipe BOSS est présente à tout moment, en particulier pendant l'été ( 30% confidence )
Created by ericlefevre on 2013-09-10; known on 2014-09-15; judged wrong by ericlefevre on 2014-09-15.
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I make at least $20 bucks profit at the swamp meet tomorrow. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-14; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-09-14.
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At least 20 people, total, will come to the next 2 YEA meetings. ( 40% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-09-12; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-09-14.
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There will be a referendum on Scottish independence ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-09; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by scav on 2014-09-14.
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It has snowed at least once in Calgary by September 30 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-09-30; judged right by minilodon on 2014-09-09.
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UTS will be one of the first 100 universities in the world by 2014. ( 26% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-09-09.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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I will make at least 5 new Facebook friends before Monday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-08; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-09-08.
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The Twitter user I reported for abuse (@FilmCriticOne) will still have an active Twitter account one month from today. ( 84% confidence )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-08-05; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-09-05.
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I will hand in every assignment between now and the mid semester break on time. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-09-05; judged right by Calien on 2014-09-05.
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Pyschbuddying posts: 'Lemme know in comments' gets a witty 'No' or similar. ( 10% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-06-11; known on 2014-06-19; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-09-04.
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Either Microsoft will sue Google using a Nokia patent, or Google will sue Microsoft using a Motorola patent. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2013-09-03; known on 2014-09-03; judged wrong by quanticle on 2014-09-03.
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I'll find this site useful and keep using even one month later. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.
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Within 1 month, I'll be showing our prototype iPhone app to people not in our development team. ( 30% confidence )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by spacemammoth on 2014-09-03.
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Manchester United will sign 3 players before Sept 2nd ( 15% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2014-08-11; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by dgray on 2014-09-03.
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Cloud 9 wins 2014 NA LCS Summer Finals. ( 90% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
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LiteCoin will trade at >=10 USD per ltc in 2 years, ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-09-02.
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My classmates will be even cooler IRL. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rationalnoodles on 2014-08-23; known on 2014-09-09; judged right by rationalnoodles on 2014-09-28.
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TSM wins at least one game in the 2014 Summer NA LCS Championship match. ( 30% confidence )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02; known on 2014-09-02; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2014-09-02.
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I will intern at a financial firm this summer. ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-30; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-09-01.