Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 83% | 100% | 86% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 28 |
Displaying all predictions made by sole21000. Filter by:
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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Mike Pence will certify Joe Biden’s electoral college victory on 6 January ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-05; known on 2021-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2017 ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2018-01-01.
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Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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Universal basic income will be an issue that comes up in the US 2020 election TV debates (primary or presidential) ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Oliver Carefull on 2016-10-20; known on 2020-04-16; judged right by sole21000 on 2020-04-17.
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California will vote “yes” on Proposition 64 in the 2016 elections, legalizing marijuana. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-06-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump Elected and constitutional crisis with US military disobeying direct orders from POTUS ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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The GOP will keep the senate in 2017 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2.4% of the popular vote in New Hampshire. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Bernie Sanders sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-16.
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AlphaGo's meltdown in game 4 was not due to flaws in either the value or policy networks. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2016-03-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by sole21000 on 2017-06-01.
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There will be a relevant (>10% vote in any election) third political party in the US before the end of 2018. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-12; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by artir on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 77% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-22; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-20.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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When DeepDream for audio is invented, the output will cause seriously ill effects in humans like seizures. This will happen before 2020. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-02-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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There will be a pandemic within the next 5 years. ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-21; known on 2016-03-21; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22.