Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 62% | 75% | 85% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 44 | 47 | 28 | 33 | 111 | 1 | 264 |
Displaying all predictions made by ccokeefe. Filter by:
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The 2018 Safra conference on AI is open to the public ( 90% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-07-02; known on 2018-12-03.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea explodes a nuclear missile outside of internationally recognized North Korean territory ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JTPeterson on 2018-04-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2018-12-26.
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Donald Trump will lose the next election. ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-07.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 2 ( 33% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] ≥5 ( 1% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 4 ( 5% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 3 ( 56% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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[Harvard Law School's 2019 USNWR ranking is] 1 ( 5% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-20; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-13.
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Politics, US – John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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GLAAD poll suggesting that LGBQ acceptance is down will mostly not be borne out by further research. ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.
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PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
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The New England Patriots will win Super Bowl LII ( 55% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-02-02; known on 2018-02-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-02-05.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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Kid Rock will not run for Senate in Michigan in 2018 ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-11-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto will have at one point been the world's richest person by 11:59 pm, December 31st, 2019. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by dchristie on 2018-01-12; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by dchristie on 2020-01-01.
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Theresa May UK PM throughout 2018 ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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All HLS classes canceled 1/4 ( 10% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-01-04; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03.
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Kim Jong Un is leader of North Korea on 12/31/18 ( 90% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Elizabeth II ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[The monarch of the United Kingdom on 12/31/18 is] Charles ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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Voters Not Politicians anti-gerrymandering MI constitutional amendment will be approved via ballot initiative on election day 2018 ( 37% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Gretchen Whitmer as the Democratic nominee ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will have Bill Schuette as the Republican nominee ( 93% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Republican ( 48% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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[The 2018 Michigan gubernatorial election] will be won by a Democrat ( 52% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-11-18; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Bitcoin would have hit an ATH in the last ~38 days ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by Nve on 2018-04-01.
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Bitcoin prices will be subdued for January 2018, never rising above it's ATH ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Debbie Stabenow to win MI Senate seat in 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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North Korea will test-detonate a nuclear weapon in 2018 ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≤30% ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 30.1%–35% ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 35.1%–37.5% ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] 37.6%–40% ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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[Trump's approval rating on 2/1/18 as aggregated by 538 is] ≥40.1% ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-02-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump to end 2018 with ≥40% approval rating as aggregated by 538. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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UM to win Outback Bowl ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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New Carly Rae Jepsen album announced in Q1 2018 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Violent act resulting in at least 2 deaths in Times Square between now and 2 AM 1/1/19 Eastern Time ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Tillerson will be SoS on 12/31/18 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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A democrat will win the SF mayoral special election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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North Korea will bomb someone before 2020 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Democrat to win MI-11 in 2018 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2018-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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UK is still, and has continuously been, a full member state of EU during this prediction. ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2017-12-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2020-03-31.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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At least one of the four coordinated EA charities (GD, AMF, FHI, THL) receives a Project for Awesome grant. ( 82% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-16.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Pineapple Fund donation to (another, not including SENS) widely-recognized EA charity by 1/1/19 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27.
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Charity Science: Health becomes (or creates) a GiveWell top charity by giving season 2019 ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.
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Bernie Sanders will win the 2020 Dem. Presidential nomination ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-03-01.
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Al Franken will not be a US Senator on 3/31/18. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-04-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-02.
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Nancy Pelosi will be Democratic Leader on 12/31/17. ( 97% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will not face federal charges by the end of 2017. ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Trump will win the Presidency in 2020 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-11-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-23.
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Elizabeth Warren will run for President in 2020 ( 62% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2020-10-01; judged right by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/17. ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Paul Ryan will be Speaker of the House on 12/31/17. ( 99% confidence )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018 or 2019. ( 64% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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Btc below 9k usd before 2018 ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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25th amendment used to take Trump out before term is over https://twitter.com/ElliNude/status/918196663314874369 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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The new (not yet hired) person hired to be the Farm Animal Welfare Program Associate at the Open Philanthropy Project will be a member of the Effective Altruism Facebook group before the time they are hired ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-10-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2018-02-20.
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North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.
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Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.
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Uber will IPO before January 1, 2020. ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.