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If the USG bombs Syria before 2014, then by the year 2015 Syria will be a democracy and the two largest political parties will be secular.

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-09-10; known on 2015-01-01

  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 10% on 2013-09-10
  • Jayson Virissimo said “This will be withdrawn if the antecedent doesn’t occur.on 2013-09-10
  • ygert estimated 2% on 2013-09-10
  • arichard estimated 1% and said “Rebels are not likely to win quickly even given (limited) strikes; democracies take time to set up; both the main parties being secular is incredibly unlikely.on 2013-09-17
  • RandomThinker estimated 5% on 2013-09-28
  • ygert said “This needs to be withdrawn.on 2014-01-14
  • ygert said “This prediction is still waiting to be withdrawn.on 2014-02-02
  • Jayson Virissimo withdrew the prediction on 2014-06-24

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