Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
-
Felix Sater testifies publicly before the House Intelligence Committee on March 27th 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-03-28; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-27.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Beto O'Rourke ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
-
[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Tulsi Gabbard ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-22.
-
[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
[In 2019 H2 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
-
[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
-
Any film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.
-
Abrams runs for president in 2020 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-03-18; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-02-05.
-
No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
-
Beto O'Rourke becomes the 2020 Democratic nominee ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
-
[Personal] I will be able to 100 consecutive push-ups six weeks from now ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
-
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday, 3/18/2019 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-18; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.
-
[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
-
Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.
-
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-16.
-
Maduro ousted before end of 2019 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.
-
Guaido invokes Article 187 on the Venezuelan constitution before Jan 1, 2021 ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
-
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-12; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-12.
-
I will figure out a way to implement the ETF arbitrage strategy so that dollar-weighted clearing time is < 2 days ( 15% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01.
-
The seafoam strategy has an out-of-sample Sharpe ratio > 1.5 ( 62% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01.
-
I find a way to safely implement the LA strategy in small emerging markets by 2018 ( 35% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2018-01-01.
-
[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.
-
[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.
-
[Politics] Robert Mueller to have submitted final report on Trump-Russia investigation by end of July 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-24.
-
[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-19.
-
[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
-
[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
-
American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
-
Alexander Acosta (Rene Alexander Acosta) will not be the United States Secretary of Labor before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-02-23; known on 2020-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-12.
-
[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances again in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
-
Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.
-
Politics, US – Mick Mulvaney ceases to be Chief of Staff before the 1st of January, 2020 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-01-01.
-
[Politics] The Mueller investigation will not produce any criminal charges against Trump ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-22.
-
[Politics] Trump will remain president for the expected duration of his first term ( 86% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by RedScharlach on 2019-02-15; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
-
Saudi Aramco IPO by end of 2020 ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-13.
-
Artie Lange is dead before the end of the year ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
-
Donald Trump is still president ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
-
I will have read 100 books ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Coagulopath on 2019-02-13; known on 2020-12-21.
-
“MbS still in power” ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“Xi still in power” ( 96% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
“No other EU country announces plan to leave” ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
-
“Britain holds second Brexit referendum” ( 22% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
-
“Ginsberg [sic!] still alive” ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-01-01.
-
“Beto O’Rourke leads the Democratic field” ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
-
[Politics] Trump will choose not to run for a second term in 2020. ( 14% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KangaRookie on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-04.
-
[Politics] Donald Trump to publicly express support for Taiwanese independence in 2019 ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
-
Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
-
“Donald Trump will still be in office” ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
-
One of {Uber, Twitter, Tumblr, Facebook, Magic Leap, Coinbase} will collapse. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2025-01-01.
-
Donald Trump to be impeached in 2019 ( 24% confidence; 25 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
-
I will still be using NixOS in three months ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.
-
US will have universal health care system by 2022 ( 13% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
-
Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.
-
Convincing evidence will prove that Amazon, Apple, etc.'s chips were compromised. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2018-10-06; known on 2019-04-06; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-04-06.
-
George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Trump will not be re-elected in 2020 ( 58% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by avi on 2020-11-07.
-
Tesla goes bankrupt sometime before 01/01/2020. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2018-07-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
-
Demonstration of energy-positive fusion power plant by the end of 2035. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-05-10; known on 2035-12-31.
-
North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.
-
Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
-
Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
-
>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.
-
C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
-
Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-08-31.
-
Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
-
Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
-
Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
-
Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
-
Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
-
Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
-
Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-07-09.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
AGI is developed by 2050 (on Earth) ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-01-18; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.
-
Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
-
President Trump frees/pardons either Chelsea Manning, Julian Assange, Laurie Love, Jeremy Hammond ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
-
The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
-
AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
-
Donald J Trump will pick Monica Lewinsky as his running mate. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-02; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-03.
-
The winner of the 2016 US presidential election will be a Democrat. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
-
Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
-
Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
-
Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
-
A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
-
Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
-
In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
-
For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
-
Someone else will judge the outcome of this prediction ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-03-17; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
-
Warren Buffet will claim that the “weapons of financial mass destruction” have executed in 2017: financial derivatives cause major problem worldwide. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
-
PredictionBook fails to recognize the major, ongoing technical issues with its site and will not change the website for at least a year. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-16; known on 2017-03-16; judged right by elephantower on 2017-03-21.