Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 14% | 56% | 61% | 72% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 7 | 25 | 28 | 25 | 16 | 0 | 101 |
Displaying all predictions made by ayegill. Filter by:
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I will move to Glasgow this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2022-01-02.
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California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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There will be riots and/or civil unrest, more extreme or on a larger scale than the the BLM protests and riots, in conjunction with the 2020 presidential election. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EliTyre on 2020-08-17; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-11-16.
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The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by azatris on 2021-01-01.
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One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.
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I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.
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Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Etherium price ≥ $500 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by myah on 2020-07-06; known on 2021-07-06; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-26.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-10-13.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.