Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
Arena Pharmaceuticals' anti-obesity drug Lorcaserin will be FDA-approved by December 31, 2010. ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
-
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
-
“BP to announce before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010 it will file for Chapter 11 Bankruptcy [in US]” —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
-
“BP to enter bankruptcy in the United Kingdom before midnight ET 31 Dec 2010” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-30.
-
Microsoft will release a variant of the XBox 360 bundled with Natal next Fall. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-30.
-
We will have <=7 inches of snow in a flat part of the garden tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2010-12-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-27.
-
Kelly Slater will win his 10th world title in 2010 ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by joloughlin on 2009-06-03; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
-
Nicole Richie for a third baby in 2010 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Holly on 2010-02-09; known on 2010-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-16.
-
“There is no chance that the iPhone is going to get any significant [> 3%] market share.” —Steve Ballmer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2011-03-31; judged wrong by gimpf on 2010-12-12.
-
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
-
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
-
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
-
PredictionBook will not be meaningfully integrated into LessWrong.com before 2011. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-05; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-01-01.
-
Justin Bieber's voice will break in the coming year. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DianneD on 2010-05-04; known on 2010-12-04; judged right by gwern on 2010-12-10.
-
UCSB men's soccer team will reach the 2010 Soccer Cup, college soccer's final four. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
-
I think that I'll have some predictions into predictionbook by the end of this week ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by bretcav on 2010-12-05; known on 2010-12-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-12-10.
-
Bret's spreadsheet issue is screen resolution related. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-12-01; known on 2010-12-02; judged right by bretcav on 2010-12-05.
-
The US Fed will increase interest rates by November 2010. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kochikvp on 2010-08-27; known on 2010-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-16.
-
North Korea will attack G20 summit with chemical or biological weapons ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2010-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-14.
-
Iran's current regime will continue its nuclear program — or be overthrown — rather than accept the current (Oct 2009) offer to have nuclear materials processed elsewhere (such as Russia). ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by robo45h on 2009-11-13; known on 2010-11-13; judged right by gwern on 2010-11-13.
-
“The U.S. will not pull all of its troops out of Iraq until the 10 largest corporations in the U.S. use their influence to make it happen. I don't see this as a possibility until after Nov. 9, 2010 the next mid-term elections.” ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2010-11-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-09.
-
Atlanta Braves will make it to the NLCS. ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-07.
-
California will receive a bailout from the Federal government in 2010. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-12-31; judged right by dakyne on 2010-11-03.
-
California's Proposition 19 will be approved. (This doesn't cover legal action after the election, just that it gets a simple majority.) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ggreer on 2010-09-30; known on 2010-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-03.
-
MNKD will sign a partner for AFREZZA by November 1, 2010 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-11-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-11-01.
-
A 2nd US retailer will receive a letter from the FDA ordering them to cease selling piracetam products. ( 70% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-02; known on 2010-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-31.
-
Anti-obesity drug Qnexa will be denied FDA approval (or delayed). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-07-30; known on 2010-10-28; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-29.
-
The creators of this site will allow some sort of lesswrong.com ideology to leak into the behavior of this site and undermine an otherwise useful gadget. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-27.
-
ARNA will be approved by the FDA on October 22, 2010 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mo_Money_2make on 2010-08-23; known on 2010-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-24.
-
“NYT will not be owned by the same company 18 months from now.” —Michael Wolff ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-05; known on 2010-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-21.
-
I'll get back to Joe with an estimate before close of business Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2010-10-16; known on 2010-10-20; judged right by Matt on 2010-10-20.
-
Why The Lucky Stiff will proffer an explanation for his absence in the next year. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2010-10-15; judged wrong by jes5199 on 2010-10-15.
-
There will be a storm/hurricane event killing more than 5000 people before 14 October 2010. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
-
The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
-
There will be a transport (train, air, boat etc) accident killing more than 1000 people before 14 october 2010. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-14.
-
General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
-
ALXA's Staccato will be FDA-approved on October 11, 2010. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by dakyne on 2010-08-11; known on 2010-10-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-11.
-
We will not have all American combat troops out of Iraq by next October. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-20; known on 2010-10-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-02.
-
Wikipedia: User:Arbitrarily0 will say User:Gwern changed the Saimoe AfD from redirect/delete to no consensus ( 85% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-30; known on 2011-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-02.
-
Blackburn will win the Eastern Footy League premiership ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by chrisknows on 2010-04-19; known on 2010-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-10-01.
-
“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
-
Trike'll have put four developers onto the LW codebase for a weeklong sprint by Sat 2nd Oct. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2010-08-30; known on 2010-10-02; judged right by Matt on 2010-09-30.
-
Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
-
Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
-
The price of gold will exceed $1300 USD / oz at some point in the next 6 months. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2010-12-16; judged right by dakyne on 2010-09-27.
-
2010 Grand Final will be Geelong vs. Western Bulldogs ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by harmonix on 2010-02-10; known on 2010-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-27.
-
“the Apple tablet will be a flop next year” —Scott Moritz ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2010-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
-
“I've got to think this device [iPad] would be a flop. This concept is such a train wreck from start to finish that I don’t know where to begin.” —Michael Scalisi ( 0% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2010-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.
-
I predict Collingwood will win the AFL Grand final in 2010. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusty.brouwer on 2010-05-11; known on 2010-09-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-09-26.