Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 54% | 63% | 76% | 91% | 91% | |
Sample Size | 223 | 296 | 225 | 144 | 161 | 11 | 1060 |
Displaying all predictions made by chemotaxis101. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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By 2025, Kanye West states that he regrets his recent antisemitic statements ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Transformers are the final architecture needed for AGI ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-18; known on 2099-01-01.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2025, Kanye West makes another album ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ukrainians will maintain control of Bakhmut through to January 31st ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by branperr on 2023-01-06; known on 2023-01-31; judged unknown by chemotaxis101 on 2023-01-09.
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First Starship attempt to reach orbit or near orbit will either never reach supersonic speed or will break up before reaching Max Q. ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Kanye West alive ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-29; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-14.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Google Search will be less popular than a product from OpenAI by 2026 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by elecnix on 2022-12-10; known on 2026-01-01.
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Brazilian tax reform will pass Congress before our 2024 midterm election days. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-02; known on 2024-10-06.
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In mid-2023, Brazil will have had mild GDP growth, but Bolsonarist bubbles will claim that these results are fake and Brazil is in a recession ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-21; known on 2023-09-01.
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Twitter will suffer a large scale (global or multi-continent) outage lasting more than 1 hour on or before March 31, 2023 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-11-20; known on 2023-04-01; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Elizabeth Holmes to be sentenced to 4 to 12 years in prison. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-11-19.
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Ilan Goldfajn will be elected president of the Interamerican Bank of Development (BID in Portuguese). ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-12; known on 2022-11-21; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-11-21.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Arthur Lira (PL) will be reelected as the President of Brazil's Lower Chamber ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-10; known on 2023-02-02; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2023-02-28.
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The federal reserve will continue raising interest rates through June 2023. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ebloch on 2022-11-09; known on 2023-07-01.
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Lula will not name a liberal Treasure secretary ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by DanCoimbra on 2022-11-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by DanCoimbra on 2022-12-13.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Mike Pence alive ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-18; known on 2025-01-01.
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George R. R. Martin dies before Winds of Winter is published ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-14; known on 2050-01-01.
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Donald Trump is indicted as a result of the documents seized from Mar-a-Lago ( 47% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-31.
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Biden tests negative for covid again by Aug 10 2020 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-31; known on 2022-08-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-08-10.
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Conditional on Putin leaving office in the middle of a term, Nikolai Patrushev is his successor for the majority of that term ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk will have at least 12 children total (3+ more children) by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sungk2048 on 2022-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bitcoin will have increased in value relative to the British pound by this time next year. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-18; known on 2023-06-18.
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Elon Musk goes full Howard Hughes within five years ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2027-06-05; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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oakbound is revealed to be clouduknguyen_95 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Cyberattack on US occurs in 2022 and is attributed to Russia by the US government by the end of the year. ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Joe Rogan will not lose his Spotify podcast (e.g., Spotify will not ask him or force him to step away) in 2022. ( 97% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Russian government blocks access to Wikipedia ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-31; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-16.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Putin runs for President of Russia again in 2024 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.
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World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Will the US militarily engage Russia by July 1st 2022? ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.
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The subreddit PurplePillDebate will hit 100,000 subscribers by July 8th 2022 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by MarkFreed on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-07-08; judged right by MarkFreed on 2022-10-04.
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Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.
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Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
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Apple stock prices will go over 170 after annual report is released ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by he666 on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-01-28; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-06.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-02-04.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-04-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-18.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.
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Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev will remain in power as of May 15, 2022. ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Luke on 2022-01-11; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietierney14 on 2021-12-28; known on 2022-01-28; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.
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SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-02-02.
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The steelers will win the superbowl ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nate13195 on 2021-11-10; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-18.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
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French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known on 2022-01-31; judged wrong by Andref2015 on 2022-03-31.
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There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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More than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2022-01-01.
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there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by stepan on 2022-03-13.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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Amaral: B irá retornar presencialmente em setembro de 2021 ( 75% confidence )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2021-07-24; known on 2021-09-15.
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Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-01.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.