Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by VoiceOfAuthority. Filter by:
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Within the next 1000 years we will discover that the singularity already happened a very long time ago and that we are the AIs that resulted from it. ( 15% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-21; known on 3009-10-21.
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There will be more than 1000 PB predictions before Fri. Oct. 23, 2009. There are ~ 650 @ 6PM PDT, Sun. Oct. 18. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-19; known on 2009-10-24; judged wrong by freyley on 2009-10-23.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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One or more persons will be charged with the manslaughter, homicide or other unlawful killing of Michael Jackson before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-16; known on 2010-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will end in 2012 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jes5199 on 2009-10-15; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Labour party will not win next UK General Election ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InTrade on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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The US economy will collapse resulting in massive inflation prior to the end of 2010. ( 30% confidence; 24 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-01-01.
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The US Dollar will drop to 1.75 against the Brazilian Real by the end of October 2009. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by marcio on 2009-10-01; known on 2009-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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I will not become a theist before the end of 2009. ( 96% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2009-05-01; known on 2009-12-31; judged right by Pablo on 2009-12-30.