“Magnitude 8.5 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
- gwern estimated 20% on 2011-08-14
- gwern said “http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=747601 20%” on 2011-08-14
- fergus estimated 0% on 2011-08-18
- fergus estimated 2% on 2011-09-13
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-12-31.
Please log in to respond to or judge prediction