Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 62% | 56% | 79% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 88 | 17 | 145 |
Displaying all predictions made by Emanuel Rylke. Filter by:
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I will apply for a job as a software developer. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-23.
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2012 i will enter a romantic relationship that will last longer than 30 days. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-30; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-30.
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I will consume a story (book, movie, comic…) in french primarly for enjoyment and not language learning. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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“Intel buys [merges with] Qualcomm” —Cringely ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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I will continue using PredictionBook at least once a month until 2015. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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German Pirate Party to enter Bundestag in next election. ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-10-27; judged wrong by mfb on 2013-09-22.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“I expect Apple to move to a modular architecture where the building blocks for high performance computers are generally Mac Minis.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-06-01.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2014' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2012' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Northern hemisphere will be frozen into ice age by 2012 ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Ye on 2011-04-10; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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The 2012 Apocalypse will end up being a hoax. ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by seansman15@hotmail.com on 2011-03-23; known on 2012-12-23; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-25.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Most human workers spend the majority of their time acquiring new skills and knowledge by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.
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Before 2020 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by jasticE on 2020-02-01.
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Android will be the dominant smartphone platform by the end of 2012. The market share, as determined by number of devices, will be greater for Android smartphones than Blackberry, Symbian, iOS (iPhone), or any platforms not yet launched. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blanu on 2010-08-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.
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“Immortal mice by 2015” ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“China will be considered a Christian nation, with at least 33% of its residents identifying themselves as Christians, by the year 2085.” ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2085-01-01.
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United States will invade Australia and take over ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tjross on 2010-03-23; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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Some group in Pakistan has already developed a super-intelligence (as of 2009). ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mjgeddes on 2009-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-08-20.
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There will be strong evidence of technologically advanced (contemporary human level or greater) extraterrestrial life by 2016. ETA: evidence of a technologically advanced civilization existing or having existed somewhere outside our solar system. ( 6% confidence; 31 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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The Pirate Party will enter the Parliament of Berlin (Berliner Abgeordnetenhaus) in the 2011 election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by faws on 2011-09-23.