Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
Displaying all predictions made by enochthechronocom. Filter by:
-
SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
-
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by August 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-08-16; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2022-10-05.
-
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by February 2022 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-02-15.
-
New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by December 2021 ( 20% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by enochthechronocom on 2022-01-28.
-
We move to Level 2 (or 2.5) next Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-05; known on 2021-09-08; judged right by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08.
-
I will exist in a purely virtual form by 2070 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2070-01-01.
-
The Great Filter is virtual reality. (Specifically: by 2100, humanity will see no reason to leave earth as we will be able to explore the galaxy within our simulated worlds.) ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-03; known on 2100-01-01.
-
Jacinda Ardern will win a new term. ( 98% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2024-01-16.
-
New Zealand will repeal the New Zealand Nuclear Free Zone, Disarmament, and Arms Control Act by 2025 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-01; known on 2025-01-01.