Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
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NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 3.0 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be piloted at some point by Mari ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be under repairs at/during the beginning ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be scrapped ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be nonoperational ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready, and used in battle against either Angels or another Eva ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Eva 02 will be operational & battle-ready ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Mari will attend school as a regular student ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari will not survive past the 50 minute mark in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: 3.0 Asuka has no recollection of anything and will call herself “Asuka Langley Soryu” ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will appear little after 2.0 and have an unimportant off-screen death ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will have more screentime in 3.0 than in 2.0 (as measured by length in seconds of scenes involving her) ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-11.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted to major ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will have been promoted ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: In 3.0, Asuka will not remember the Matsushiro incident of 2.0 ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 and will look like Rei (dressed in the AU uniform, as seen in 3.0 preview) ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will remained merged in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings and the SDAT player will be with them in some respect ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Rei & Shinji will exit EVA-01 in 3.0 as separate beings ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE manga: Sadamoto's manga will conclude as Rei x Shinji ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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When Maru dies, his owner (or someone else) will post videos of him and/or his coffin. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by roxton on 2011-10-05; known on 2021-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 and there they use the Key of Nebuchadnezzar to unleash something that would either save the world or destroy it. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo and Fuyutsuki go to Jerusalem in 3.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo & Fuyutsuki are traveling in the Dead Sea in 3.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo will, in person, physically attack Shinji in 3.0 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed to “Kaworu Nagisanami” ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will be renamed ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity and will not choose suicide ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will again be faced with a choice between committing suicide or killing humanity ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill a kitten ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaworu will kill an Angel ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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LW: Goetz's mugging post will be <= -7 in 1 month. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-11-04.
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There will be no noticeable disruption of financial services offered by the New York Stock Exchange on October 10th. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-11; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-11.
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NGE Rebuild: 3.0 will open in the beginning/middle of an Angel attack a la 2.0 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-02-26.
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NGE Rebuild: There will be no 3rd Impact. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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NGE Rebuild: The entity in Terminal Dogma is still Lilith (of NGE TV) in some sense ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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'Conrad Murray to be found guilty of involuntary manslaughter' [of Michael Jackson] ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged right by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-11-08.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1017: Will Robert Mugabe cease to be President of Zimbabwe by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1015: Will Israel's ambassador be formally invited to return to Turkey by 30 September 2011? ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1013: Will the London Gold Market Fixing price of gold (USD per ounce) exceed $1850 on 30 September 2011 (10am ET)? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1012: Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 October 2011? ( 5% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1011: Will the Nikkei 225 index finish trading at or above 9,500 on 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1010: Will the 30 Sept 2011 “last” PPB for Nov 2011 Brent Crude oil futures* exceed $115? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1018: Will Muqtada al-Sadr formally support for the current Iraqi government of Nouri al-Maliki by 30 September 2011? ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Appeals court in Perugia will acquit Amanda Knox and Raffaele Sollecito of the murder of Meredith Kercher. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by komponisto on 2010-09-29; known on 2011-10-04; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-03.
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Patrick Macias will reply within a week. ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-30; known on 2011-10-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-07.
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Apple will announce a 128GB+ (non-HDD) iPod or closest iPod Touch successor, before 2012 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1004: Will the United Nations General Assembly recognize a Palestinian state by 30 September 2011? ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
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Within two years, consensus will be that Edward Nelson's current attempt at demonstrating a contradiction in PA fails. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-27; known on 2013-09-27; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-01.
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'Electric and hybrid trucks are now surpassing 100,000 in annual production numbers worldwide' in 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'After a six year construction period, the Kingdom Tower opens in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia.' in 2017 ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'The African Central Bank is established' in 2018 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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'The Nabucco gas pipeline is completed' in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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'India completes construction of the Dibang Valley Dam' in 2017. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-02.
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'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2019-06-30.
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'China launches an unmanned sample return mission to the Moon' ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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M1A3 Abrams tanks deployed and operational on battlefields by 2018 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2018-01-08.
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Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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'A pill to prevent sunburn' is available either over-the-counter or by prescription ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-04.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Masdar City phase 1 complete ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-21.
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'The Internet has a greater reach than television' by/during 2014 (America) ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by supinf on 2015-08-05.
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The Gaia mission will launch in 2013 ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-01-01.
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The ROK-U.S. Combined Forces Command will be dissolved on schedule. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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'Completion of the i5K project' by 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
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“The World Bank predicts that Yemen's oil and gas revenues will plummet over the next two years and fall to zero by 2017 as supplies run out.” ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.
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The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
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No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Southern Baptist Convention will not rename themselves in the next two years. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2013-09-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-09-20.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Qwikster will resurrect Red Envelope Entertainment or some similar film production and distribution arm within a year of the Qwikster/Netflix split. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roxton on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by roxton on 2011-10-10.
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US Supercommittee to publish >=$1.5t deficit reduction by midnight 23 November 2011 ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-19; known on 2011-11-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-11-22.
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The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 15, 2012 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by kiba on 2012-01-15.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1019: Will Ali Abdullah Saleh cease to be Yemen's head of government by 30 September 2011? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1014: Who will win the September 2011 Guatemalan presidential election, or will a run-off be needed? © Other or Run-Off ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2011-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2011-09-14.
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Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.
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Steve R. and I will have produced at least one dubstep song within the next six months. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2012-03-14; judged wrong by Will Newsome on 2012-09-05.
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I will have recorded at least one acoustic guitar song within the next week. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2011-09-21; judged right by Will Newsome on 2011-09-17.
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Google + will have under 10 million users by 2013 ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Gedusa on 2011-09-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-04-08.
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I will be a USCF Master before I turn 23. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-13; known on 2014-11-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-15.