Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 56% | 67% | 70% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 | 12 | 1 | 51 |
Displaying all predictions made by sjy. Filter by:
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.
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BTCUSD does not reach $40,000 before 2025 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2025-01-01.
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The run on Silicon Valley Bank triggers a stock market crash, defined as the S&P 500 falling to 3,000 or less (~20% loss) during 2023 ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-13; known on 2024-01-01.
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Investors in the WeWork IPO will lose more than 50% of their investment within 3 years ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-18; known on 2022-09-01.
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New South Wales has 25,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by kronicd on 2022-01-04.
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Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-02-02.
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Western Australia allows quarantine-free travel from New South Wales in accordance with the Safe Transition Plan from 5 February 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-01-20.
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The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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< 20,000 total cases of COVID-19 in New South Wales by the end of 2021 ( 85% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-07-13; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-08-29.
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Mike Pence will certify Joe Biden’s electoral college victory on 6 January ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-05; known on 2021-01-07; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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Mark McGowan will be returned as Premier of Western Australia in the 2021 election ( 95% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by sjy on 2021-03-15.
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Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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A new technique for developing “conversational AI” neural networks will be popularized, whose generated content is less based on word-by-word prediction (like GPT-3) and more based on the semantics and concepts expressed by those words. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2023-02-24.
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The Sun will rise on 1 January 2021 ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Gladys Berejiklian will still be the Premier of New South Wales on 1 November 2020 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-10-13; known on 2020-11-01; judged right by sjy on 2020-11-01.
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The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2020-05-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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US deaths attributed to covid19 will be in the range 80,000 to 500,000 by next April. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by credunkist on 2020-04-03; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-04-18.
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There will be no state- or nation-wide McDonald’s closures (other than closure of the dining area) due to COVID-19 in Australia in 2020 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-03.
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No OECD nation will have a lockdown (orders which prevent people from attending work, in the absence of any evidence of illness) in place by the end of 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-03.
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Joe Biden dies of coronavirus in 2020 ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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The 2020 Olympics will not be cancelled ( 53% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2020-02-26; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by gurgus on 2021-07-19.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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Lab-cultured red protein that emulates beef will become commonplace, and sold in typical grocery stores, *by 2025*. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2020-01-18; known on 2025-01-19.
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Google's decision to remove support for third-party cookies in Chrome will be ruled an antitrust violation in the United States before 2025. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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President Trump will win the 2020 Election. ( 54% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by meganwhalen20 on 2019-11-11; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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The High Court of Australia will grant special leave to appeal from the decision in Pell v The Queen 2019 VSCA 186 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2019-08-24; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-04-09.
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The Telecommunications and Other Legislation Amendment (Assistance and Access) Act 2018 will cause high profile services such as AWS or WhatsApp to be withdrawn from the Australian market within 2 years ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-12-05; known on 2020-12-04; judged wrong by sjy on 2020-12-06.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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I will see a platypus today ( 60% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2017-09-10; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-08-15; known on 2017-09-12; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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BTCUSD will exceed 1,900,000 on 18 July 2020, as predicted by John McAfee ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-18; known on 2020-07-18; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-18.
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Putin will be chosen as president in 2018 #research #politics_russia ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2018-03-19; judged right by timmartin on 2018-03-19.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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BTCUSD will exceed 2000 during May 2017 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-05-17; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by Nve on 2017-05-18.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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Trump will not be impeached. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average will exceed 20,000 for the first time in history during January 2017 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-01-09; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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Crimea still effectively occupied by/part of Russia ( 94% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-01-05.
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The UK Supreme Court will dismiss the Brexit appeal ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-31; judged right by sjy on 2017-01-25.
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The U.S. will impose new protectionist tariffs within the first year of Trump's presidency ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sjy on 2016-12-26; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by sjy on 2018-01-22.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.