Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.
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Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.
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Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.
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I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=2 ( 30% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.
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I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=1 ( 45% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged right by dmwit on 2019-03-02.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22). ( 8% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-23; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01.
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NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-01.
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The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-03-01.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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I will leave the country at least once before March 1. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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[SSBU] Salem dropped by team liquid in 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ambisinister on 2019-02-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by fairfax on 2019-02-27.
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Nintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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Fewer than 63 'ThinSats' from Twiggs Space Lab will be launched on the Autumn Antares in 2018. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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There will be a story mode in Smash for Switch. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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Smash for Switch will support 8-player smash. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.
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I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=0 ( 15% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-02-26.
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Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-04-09.
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3D XPoint will be released by January 1, 2017 ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] None of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Reach” to perform best ( 18% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Laplace” to perform best ( 28% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Market” to perform best ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-15). ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16; known on 2019-02-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-23.
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At least one launch failure before 2019 (satellite not injected at or near its target orbit). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Another Smash Ballot will be announced in 2018. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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I will attend Albion 3. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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I will attend Syndicate 2018. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-12; known on 2018-09-20; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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ARCA Space will fail to reach its goal of a flight in 2018. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Politics, UK – Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-19.
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L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known on 2019-02-16; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-02-19.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Market” to perform best ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Laplace” to perform best ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.