Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 21 to 30 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 21 to 30 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 18% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] any other candidate ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[US Democratic primary: Kansas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Commodities] As of May 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of April 2020 ( 52% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Politics] Hassan Rouhani to be president of Iran as of 2020-05-12 ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-05-13; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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Over 50 Australians die from COVID-19 by 30 June 2020, as reported by the Department of Health ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-02; known on 2020-06-30; judged right by sjy on 2020-05-17.
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Politics, UK – Government announces quarantine of newly arrived air passengers by end of May. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-05-15.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Belgium has formed a federal government ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01; known on 2020-05-26; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-05-11.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] April 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of April 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] March 2020 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-09.
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Starhopper SN 4 test article will pass cryo pressure test ( 50% confidence )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-04-27; judged right by evand on 2020-05-09.
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Kindergartens in Germany will open again in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-08.
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Google will announce its involvement in creating charter cities and/or ZEDEs sometime within the next five years, and a post on this topic will get 300+ upvotes on /r/anarcho_capitalism. ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-05-08; known on 2020-05-08; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2020-05-08.
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The Indian economy will surpass the USA economy by 2020 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ravneetrox on 2010-05-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-05-08.
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I will join the SB hackathon ( 80% confidence )
Created by Noa Nabeshima on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-01-30; judged right by Noa Nabeshima on 2020-05-07.
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in four months, the consensus among the national security community will be that we (i.e., the US) are not any more meaningfully said to be “at war” with Iran than we are now on 5 Jan 2020. ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-06; known on 2020-05-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-06.
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[Fighting] Official cross-promotional bout involving UFC fighter in the next year ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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Alex isn't home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05.
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Tesla stock trades below $150 on or before 2 May 2020 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2020-05-02; judged wrong by separo on 2020-05-03.
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[Fighting] Tony Ferguson and Khabib Nurmagomedov to fight in April 2020 ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-27; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-02.
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Schools in Germany will open again in April ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-14; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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Remdesivir approved by the FDA by the end of July 2020 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-18; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-05-02.
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San Francisco will extend the shelter-in-place order beyond May 3rd ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-04; judged right by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-05-02.
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Boris Johnson dies by end of April 2020 (due to Coronavirus) ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-04-06; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2020-05-01.
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a bill passes and is signed into law to add more money to the SBA PPP program in 2020 before 1am on June 1, 2020 ET ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Contingent on more money being added to the PPP program, that money will be available for 501c3 non-profits ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Rethink Charity gets SBA PPP program money in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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More money is added to the SBA PPP program in 2020 ( 90% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-04-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-05-01.
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Politics, UK – Government says restaurants may reopen for sit-in service before end of April. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-03-21; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-05-01.
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Total deaths due to coronavirus in the Netherlands will go over >5000 by the end of April. ( 61% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stucwerk on 2020-04-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-05-01.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.