The Islamic Republic Will collapse in 2 years in IRan.
Created by puya on 2011-06-28; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-06-30.
- puya estimated 70% on 2011-06-28
- gwern estimated 10% and said “and why such confidence? it has endured since the ’70s…” on 2011-06-28
- JoshuaZ estimated 35% on 2011-06-29
- Jach estimated 5% on 2011-08-18
- holycow81 estimated 7% on 2013-05-27
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2013-06-30.
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