Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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One or t'other sees both BKB's in/around P ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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F accepts L Friend Request by the midnight ending Sunday, conditional on it being sent as claimed ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as featured or main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke ( 80% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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No Jedi Mind Tricks songs (as main artist) on Sunfly Karaoke website ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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It was from that person ( 85% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17.
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CJ or HM or JB at P ( 35% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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R does 5th ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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B-S I illegal under UK law conditional on agreement in judging this of prediction setters ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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BK see R & T ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-03-17; known on 2015-03-17; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-03-17.
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HPMoR: Snape is present in Ch 114. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2015-03-03; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Chri on 2015-03-17.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains an ordinary rock ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is both Voldemort and Roger Bacon's diary ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Bacon's diary is Voldemort's diary ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: Hermione has or will become a magical Hogwarts ghost ( 13% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-06-30; known on 2015-06-30; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR: Dumbledor will die with the feeling of betrayal. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Thelvyn on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be used to create a dementor. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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HP MoR: The Philosopher's Stone is an Horcrux. ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Kurosymph on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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“The power the Dark Lord knows not” is ability to make altruist plans. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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I have symptoms of Y before the end of March. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-02-23; known on 2015-04-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-03-16.
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HPMoR (up to 98): Harry Potter will never use the killing curse (aka the Avada Kedavra Curse). ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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HPMoR (up to ch. 98): Voldemort will die (permanently). ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-15.
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hpmor- In the last few chapters, Harry will be referred to as the “spare” with Cedric Diggory nearby. ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-02-23; judged wrong by Faceh on 2015-03-15.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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My PredictionBook calibration will be obviously better by my 400th prediction than it is now at 208 predictions. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by nick on 2013-03-14; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by nick on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be greater than 50 people. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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The attendance of the Chicago HP:MoR wrap party will be between 35 and 50 people. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-15.
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Between 5 and 20 people will attend the HP:MoR wrap party in Chicago. (Prediction made on March 4th) ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by EliTyre on 2015-03-10; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: By end of story, it will be revealed that the events at the end of Chapter 113 were just a setup for Harry to be seen defeating Voldemort. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-03-01; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: Harry dies at some point before the end of the story (including if said death is temporary). ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) there will be a philosophical discussion/debate of the nature of self, identity, and/or continuity of consciousness. This discussion will last LONGER than a single paragraph. ( 58% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-15; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In chapter 111, the events depicted are happening inside a realm created by the mirror. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2015-02-25; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HPMoR: In the final arc (Chapter 104 – conclusion) It will be revealed that HPJEV was under some magical influence that prevented him from perceiving the link between Voldemort and Quirrel. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-02-16; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Lily Potter did not give Petunia a magic potion, but actually Imperius'ed her. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: At some point, Harry (or someone) will break a time-turner to get out of a sticky situation. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by 75th on 2014-01-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Quirrel is a/the Basilisk. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-21; known on 2015-01-23; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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In HPMOR, Harry will at some point accept that souls and/or an afterlife exists. ( 34% confidence; 17 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-02; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: Hermione was not False Memory-charmed at any point between chapter 60 and 83 ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-09; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HPMOR: Dumbledore is Grindelwald ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dusk on 2013-08-20; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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HP MOR: It will be revealed that Harry rederived the Pythagorean Theorem, on a Thursday, before April, and that it was fun ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-03-14; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.