Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
-
Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
-
Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
-
The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
-
Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
-
I read something more important than http://www.visionofearth.org/future-of-humanity/existential-risks/occupy-heaven-potential-humanity-safeguard-future/ today ( 15% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-22; known on 2016-06-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-23.
-
I will start showing symptoms of norovirus before the end of the day. ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-06-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-21.
-
Trump wins California ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-07-09; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-21.
-
HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and they magically modified the memory of the witnesses Rita relied on to write the article ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-06-20.
-
Florida shooter shot either independently, or on behalf of dalwa al isalmyya and not Al-Qaeda. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12; known on 2016-07-19; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
-
Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
-
ASOIAF : Onggyr ng Jvagresryy ybfg ol ubhfr fgnex naq jba ol ubhfr obygba ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
-
bitcoinCAD up june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
-
ethereumUSD down june 17 2016 ( 58% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-06-18; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-18.
-
No single GOP candidate will get >50% of delegates, and a brokered convention will ensue. ( 29% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-06-16.
-
My research this summer will result in a published paper ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-16.
-
Journalers of OkC will still exist, and will have no less than 90 members. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.
-
Sam and Adam will still be married ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.
-
There will be at least one more gravitational wave detection announced in 2016 ( 86% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-14; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-15.
-
Bernie will remain in the race through the District of Columbia primary. ( 44% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-14; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-06-14.
-
Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
-
Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
-
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2030 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
-
Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2025 ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-06-14.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
In the first two years after the 2012 election, at least three prominent Republican party members will defect to other parties. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-13.
-
Dilma Rousseff will be president of Brazil until 2018 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daniel74f on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jesseh on 2016-11-10.
-
Dilma Roussef will lose power before the end of 2016 ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by leo_gri on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by leo_gri on 2016-06-13.
-
S06E07 Arya was not actually Arya. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-06; known on 2016-06-20; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2016-06-13.
-
A terrorist incident involving the death of 1 or more Americans occurs before year end on American soil (excludes perpetrators). ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-01; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-13.
-
2016 predictions: there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 74% confidence; 22 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-12.
-
The Dota 2 6.87 patch will not come out before the Manila Major is over. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by raehik on 2016-04-19; known on 2016-06-12; judged wrong by raehik on 2016-06-12.
-
I leave my job by the end of May 2016. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
-
Views From The Six won't make Pitchfork's “Best New Music” ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-30; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
-
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
-
Adam's AI will win the AI battleships tournament ( 46% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-06-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-10.
-
D will get a paper out before F or A ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-06-09.
-
Hammersmith Underground is on boundary zone 1/2 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
-
Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged right by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
-
Hammersmith Underground is in interior zone 1 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-06-09; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2016-06-09.
-
Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
-
Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
-
L wins at pokemon against M at the potluck ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-08; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-08.
-
MealSquares will have a vegan option available by this time next year ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-05-25; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-06-05.
-
Drugs are here ( 90% confidence )
Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-05-30; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
-
Collette sends song by June 4th (I doubt she will if not by then). ( 10% confidence )
Created by wafflepudding on 2016-05-28; known on 2016-06-04; judged wrong by wafflepudding on 2016-06-05.
-
I will have at least three more papers published by June of 2016 ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-06-02.