Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 50% | 100% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 8 |
Displaying all predictions made by cointelligence. Filter by:
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Human seer Yudkovsky will have a revelation about friendly AI. Yudkovsky will keep it to himself. ( 76% confidence )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2011-03-01; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2010-03-08.
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Sky Burial in the WA ( 86% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-07; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-03.
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Cointelligence will get bored and quit ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-03-01; known on 2010-03-08; judged right by gwern on 2010-07-29.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Stefan Pernar will not appear out of his own navel ( 99% confidence )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-01; judged right by cointelligence on 2010-03-01.
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The sea level will rise by more than 2 metres as measured by the Thame estuary. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by cointelligence on 2010-02-28; known on 2050-02-28.
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Prediction book will get some desperately needed moderation. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jack on 2010-02-15; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by al3xal3x on 2010-03-18.
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Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland. ( 12% confidence; 18 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.