Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 57% | 50% | 50% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 7 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tenoke. Filter by:
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Dogecoin's market cap will surpass Litecoin's during 2014 ( 45% confidence; 16 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-13; known on 2015-01-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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At least one person will be banned from #lesswrong in February 2014. (only valid for people who have never before been banned from the channel) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-02-01.
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Google will include Bitcoin in the list of currencies that you can automatically convert through the search bar in 2014. ( 39% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-01-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by adbge on 2014-07-30.
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Bitcoin will end the year higher than $1000. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Jan 1st of 2015 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2015-01-04.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Yvain will be fired (or asked to resign) from his Psychiatrist position due to breach of confidentiality in the next 2 years. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-07-18; known on 2015-07-18; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2015-07-19.
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1 USD will be worth more than 120 ripples. (that is the price of ripples will drop to 120 or more per $1) by/on the 7th of June 2014. Making this to remind myself of a bet for 50 gbp with a friend. ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tenoke on 2013-06-07; known on 2014-06-07; judged right by Tenoke on 2014-06-08.