Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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NSW will have a peak of >20k active covid cases between 14/07/2021 and 31/12/2021 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kronicd on 2021-07-13; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by kronicd on 2021-09-05.
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[The Economist predicts:] Christian Coleman wins men's 100 metres at the Olympics ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] England wins Euro 2020 men's football tournament ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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[The Economist predicts:] China wins the most gold medals at the Olympics ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-08-17.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-22. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Afghanistan – Taliban capture Afghan Palace by 2026-09-11 ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-12; known on 2026-09-12; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Personal, Productivity – I finish due flashcards for the day by deadline. ( 91% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-13; known on 2021-08-14; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-15.
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NGE Rebuild: In 4.0, there will be an epilogue set years later ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: A version of the song “Komm, süsser Tod” will be used in Rebuild ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kozo Fuyutsuki dies (before Third Impact/Instrumentality) ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by shooting herself in the head ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will commit suicide by jumping off the bridge ( 3% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Ritsuko will be shot by Gendo (again) ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Gendo will die protecting Shinji in some sense ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji's killer (if any) will be shown clearly, on-screen, and not off-screen ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will kill Misato ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Gendo, in his hand ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: a Rei x Shinji ending ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato and in her arms ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Misato will die before Kaji does ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die before Misato ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar will be implanted into Asuka, under her eye-patch ( 18% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Any Instrumentality/Third Impact in 3.0 or 4.0 will focus on Asuka rather than Shinji (as measured by seconds of screentime) ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss and the kiss will be initiated by Shinji (rather than Asuka as in NGE TV) ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka & Shinji will kiss ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Contingent upon there being a strangulation scene similar to EoE, Asuka will strangle Shinji ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: 'Giant naked Rei' will rise again from the LCL sea during Instrumentality ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka x Shinji ending ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will not be longer than 60 minutes ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Touji will pilot an Eva against the Mass Production Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on the MP Evas appearing ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Touji will be featured significantly in 4.0 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: Both 3.0 and 4.0 will be released in the US by Funimation ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: 4.0 will end on or near a blue wave shot to parallel the red wave shot that opened 1.0, and ended EoE ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE: By the end of 4.0, the Earth's oceans will be blue (and full of life) and not red & lifeless ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Asuka will pilot an Eva against the MP Evas in 3.0 or 4.0, contingent on MP Evas appearing ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Shinji will kill Gendo ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: a Mari x Shinji ending ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will say 'anta baka?' ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva ( 2% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is an Eva and specifically Eva-07 ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is part-Russian or has connections to Russia ( 10% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.
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NGE Rebuild: Mari is some sort of 'False Child' which has covertly replaced another one ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by eviscerator on 2021-08-14.