Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 40% | 50% | 47% | 63% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 20 | 28 | 17 | 40 | 7 | 1 | 113 |
Displaying all predictions made by Stephen. Filter by:
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The world will end in 2078 to a nuclear holocaust. ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Fenrir on 2020-10-31; known on 2078-12-31.
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I'll manage to cook the enormous turkey properly on Thanksgiving ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by larssa on 2020-11-25; known on 2020-11-26; judged right by larssa on 2020-11-30.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by pdf on 2021-03-01.
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Will California pay out any part of Trump's federal unemployment benefits in August? ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-13; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-03.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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I will finish 70% of the problems within “MIT: The Missing Semester” this week. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged right by Stephen on 2020-08-16.
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I will stream to twitch over 20 hours this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-08-17; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-08-17.
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[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] September ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-10-02.
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[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] August. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-01.
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S&P500 crashes by more than 5% in a session within 3 months. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by abelriboulot on 2020-08-04; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Stephen on 2021-01-01.
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World War III ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jasonau12345 on 2020-07-30; known on 2100-01-01.
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There'll be a global average “dip” in the rate of population increase directly attributable to people voluntarily forgoing having kids due to climate change fears ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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>50% of the world population has to scan their eye(/iris) at least once per day ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27; known on 2020-08-19; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-20.