Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 64% | 63% | 72% | 81% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 72 | 204 | 299 | 365 | 194 | 14 | 1148 |
Displaying all predictions made by jbeshir. Filter by:
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Politics, US – Former FBI Deputy Andrew McCabe charged for lying under oath by end of June 2018. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by max on 2018-07-11.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire Governor signs HB 1319 before the end of June 2018. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, US – New Hampshire HB 1319 passes the Senate before the end of June 2018. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Business, UK – Northern restores all cancelled daily rail services by the end of the 1st of August 2018. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Politics, World – EU applies retaliatory tariffs to imports from the US by end of July 2018. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-06-02; known on 2018-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal – My virtual betting spreadsheet demonstrates a profit after 50 virtual bets. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-08; known on 2018-06-01.
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Politics, Brazil – Before 1 October 2018, will Brazil's Workers' Party nominate a candidate for president who is not Luiz Inàcio Lula da Silva? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-08.
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Politics, Spain – Valtonyc arrested before end of 2018-06-03 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Tech – TSB has restored online banking access to all its customers by end of 2018-06-10. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Politics, Ireland – At least 75% of voters in Dublin voted Yes in the referendum on 2018-05-25. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Kim Jong Un not to agree to dismantle nuclear weapons program in June 12 Trump talks ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2018-06-13.
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Politics, South America – Pope Francis accepts resignation of at least ten of the Chilean bishops by the end of the 7th of June. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional enforcement of existing restrictions or checks, or non-mandatory checks, on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – Texan governor announces support for additional restrictions or mandatory checks on gun transfers or ownership before the end of the 7th of June 2018. ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-10.
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Politics, US – In Gill v. Whitford, will the Supreme Court rule that any part of Wisconsin's redistricting plan is an unconstitutional partisan gerrymander? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Carpenter v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that investigators' warrantless use of Timothy Carpenter's cellphone records was unconstitutional? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Husted v. A. Philip Randolph Institute, will the Supreme Court rule that Ohio's supplemental process for voter registration list-maintenance is legal? ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Dalmazzi v. United States, will the Supreme Court rule that Judge Martin Mitchell was disqualified to rule on Nicole Dalmazzi's appeal before the Air Force Court of Criminal Appeals? ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Janus v. American Federation of State, County, and Municipal Employees, Council 31, will the Supreme Court rule that mandatory payment of any agency fees by non-union government employees is unconstitutional? ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In Minnesota Voters Alliance v. Mansky, will the Supreme Court rule that the state's ban on political apparel at polling places is facially unconstitutional? ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In National Institute of Family and Life Advocates v. Becerra, will the Supreme Court rule that any state-licensed healthcare providers were improperly denied an injunction over California's Reproductive FACT Act? ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-10-20.
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Politics, US – In South Dakota v. Wayfair, Inc., will the Supreme Court rule that a state may impose sales taxes on retail sales by firms that do not have a physical presence in the state? ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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Politics, US – In Trump v. Hawaii, will the Supreme Court rule on whether the September 2017 Presidential Proclamation on immigration violates or likely violates the Establishment Clause of the Constitution? ( 38% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Gurkenglas on 2018-10-14.
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Tech – Apple announces sleep tracking support for watchOS at WWDC in 2018. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces multi-user FaceTime call support at WWDC in 2018. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Tech – Apple announces iOS 12 at WWDC. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jamesrom on 2018-06-13.
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Tech – Apple announces a system for developing applications working on both macOS and iOS at WWDC. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-06-10; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-06-25.
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Politics, US – A bill restoring the DACA programme is voted on by the House of Representatives before the end of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-12; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Middle East – There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Before 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 16% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019 ( 13% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Before 1 January 2019, the US federal government bans the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – Nicolas Maduro announced as winner of the 2018 presidential elections. ( 72% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-06-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-05-26.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – Schistosomiasis Control Initiative remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – The price of a bitcoin is over $10,000 at the end of 2018. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Saudi Arabia does not conduct any airstrikes in Yemen between the start and end of December 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Jennifer on 2018-12-28.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – A department of the Federal government is eliminated before the end of 2018 ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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The referendum on the Irish 8th Amendment will pass. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-25; known on 2018-05-26; judged right by davatk on 2018-05-26.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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UK will expel Russia's ambassador by 18 March 2018. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by fkovacs on 2018-03-14; known on 2018-03-19; judged wrong by fkovacs on 2018-03-19.
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Politics, UK – It is alleged by a government official that a significant possibility exists that the man restrained by police who later died in Lewisham on 2018-03-09 was subject to excessive force before the end of the 9th of April 2018. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-12; known on 2018-04-10; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-04-25.
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Tech – Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the top-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. ( 35% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-05.
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Tech – Tesla unveils a home battery by the end of April, a possibly-estimated price range is announced, and the bottom-end of the price range is greater than $10,000. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-05-05.
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Politics, UK – Spokesperson for UK government department states that their official view is that the Russian government was likely involved in attack on former spy by end of 2018-04-08. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-04-09; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-15.
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Donald Trump will have a face-to-face meeting with Kim Jong-un “by May”. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-09; known on 2018-04-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-30.
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Politics, US – Deal struck before 5th of March 2018 that curbs family reunification and provides “Dreamers” with protection from deportation or a path to such. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-05.
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Politics, US – John Kelly is White House Chief of Staff through the end of February 2018. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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Politics, UK – A power-sharing executive is established in Stormont by the end of the 10th of March 2018. ( 34% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-11.
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Politics, UK – The Department for International Development announces it is halting or suspending some funding for Oxfam due to sexual misconduct allegations against aid workers before the start of April 2018. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-02-10; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-04-01.
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Microsoft will not buy Valve ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2018-01-30; known on 2018-07-30; judged right by enolan on 2018-07-30.
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The investigation run by Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is still ongoing by the end of 2018 (and is still run by Mueller, e.g., Mueller has not died, or been removed, or formally concluded his investigation). ( 67% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Personal – I am routinely (at least briefly for at least 5 out of 7 days of the last week spent fully at my apartment) wearing ankle or wrist weights at the end of March 2018. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-03; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-03-28.
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Tech – Digital Combat Simulator World 2.5 is released before the end of January 2018 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Personal – I reach the 12GB data allowance on my phone before I return home from travel, such that I buy more or curtail my usage. ( 10% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-12-19; known on 2018-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Business, UK – Donald Brydon ceases to be chairman of LSE. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Politics, US – Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2017-12-11.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Politics, Lebanon – Saad Hariri returns to Lebanon by the end of 2017-11-25. ( 45% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-11-26; judged right by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
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Personal, Business Interactions – Openreach engineer actually shows up at my property on 2017-11-09 between 8AM and 1PM per booking. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-08; known on 2017-11-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-09.
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Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Paul Manafort with a crime. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-05. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Personal, Productivity – I will do my strength and flexibility exercises on 2017-10-22. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-22.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-11-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Spanish Senate approves proposed plan for elections in Catalonia by the end of 2017-10-27. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-10-28; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-28.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Politics, EU – EU launches assessment of whether there has been a breach of fundamental rights in Poland before the end of July 2017. ( 40% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-01.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives before next Monday. ( 75% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Personal, Business Interactions – My Halifax card arrives today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-02.
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Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Personal, Business Interactions – I receive a gift card or cash card containing a signup bonus from BT sometime before the end of September 2017. ( 25% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-08-01; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Personal, Business Interactions – BT's refund emails actually correspond to a refund arriving in my bank account before the end of the 4th of August 2017. ( 73% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-30; known on 2017-08-05; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-08-07.
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Reince Priebus (Reinhold Richard Priebus) will not be the White House Chief of Staff before the end of 2017 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-07-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-07-29.
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Politics, UK – Charlie Gard is ruled to be moved to the home of their parents, with the ruling made on the 26th of July 2017. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-26; known on 2017-07-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-27.
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Productivity – I am still trying to using Worksnaps at due date such that I wish to continue paying for it. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2018-01-24; judged right by jbeshir on 2018-02-05.
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Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, Turkey – Turhan Gunay is found guilty of any charge before the start of the 1st of September. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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Politics, Canada – Winstone Blackmore is found guilty of polygamy. ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-26.