Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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< 2M coronavirus deaths ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-07-31; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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Justin Bieber will go to rehab sometime within the next 10 years ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-31; known on 2021-03-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-31.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for an additional chapter of my mathematics textbook by deadline. ( 82% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-29.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my Guesstimate model with farmed fish and cow welfare by deadline. ( 87% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-28.
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The Green Run for the SLS will either not be completed by July 15, 2021, or at least one problem will be found during the Green Run requiring redesign of some aspect of the SLS. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-07-01; known on 2021-07-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-28.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make Anki cards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-21; known on 2021-03-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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Personal, Productivity – I make at least one Anki card for a paper I've read today. ( 92% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-24; known on 2021-03-25; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-25.
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No one in the EA group will miss 3 weeks in a row ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by htaussig on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will get more than 33 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 94% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win exactly 34 or 35 seats n the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 92% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged wrong by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win exactly 36 or 37 seats n the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 90% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win exactly 38 or 39 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 85% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win exactly 40 or 41 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 77% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win exactly 42 or 43 seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 80% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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VVD will not win 44 or more seats in the Dutch parliamentary election in March. ( 82% confidence )
Created by nickkees on 2021-01-28; known on 2021-03-21; judged right by nickkees on 2021-03-22.
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Some vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 will have successfully passed phase 3 trials by the 15th of October 2020. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2020-10-22; judged wrong by Mathieu_Putz on 2021-03-21.
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Personal, Productivity – I read and make flashcards for another paper by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-20.
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My bike will be where I left it yesterday, near Helenelund station. #crime #environment ( 85% confidence )
Created by sallatik on 2021-03-20; known on 2021-03-20; judged right by sallatik on 2021-03-20.
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Based on here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ToBdcRGsqr8 The one in the blue dress was the mole. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-19; known on 2021-03-19; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-19.
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There will be large scale rioting in US in early 2021 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-18; known on 2021-03-18; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-03-18.
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Personal, Productivity – I extend my choiceworthiness model in Guestimate with cash transfers by deadline. ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-17.
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I'm going to get a second PPP loan. (Mainly because there are so many places to apply, it seems like one of them will come through? But on the other hand, I'm about a week late in applying and maybe the money is basically all spoken for?) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-01-27; known on 2021-02-15; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.
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I will be in California on the 8th of March. ( 70% confidence )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-02-25; known on 2021-03-09; judged right by EliTyre on 2021-03-17.
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Trump convicted by Senate before March 15 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by krp.1902 on 2021-01-26; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-16.
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Personal, Productivity – I read (not necessarily make flashcards for) another chapter of my math textbook by deadline. ( 65% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-15; known on 2021-03-22; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-03-15.
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Mark McGowan will be returned as Premier of Western Australia in the 2021 election ( 95% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by sjy on 2021-03-15.
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COVID, US – B117 to lock down ≥3M in US by 2021-03-11? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-15.
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Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-03-12.
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Cal Newport's next book will be about applying lean manufacturing concepts to knowledge work (either main theme or one of the top ideas) ( 75% confidence )
Created by sortega on 2020-06-07; known on 2021-05-16; judged right by sortega on 2021-03-12.
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I will judge my decision to pay for wop+ to be a good investment in 6 months ( 69% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-07; known on 2021-03-07; judged right by grin on 2021-03-12.
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2021-03-11.
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ETH will be above $2000 on March 1st ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technillogue on 2021-02-10; known on 2021-03-02; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-03-11.
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Daniel wants to talk with me about his podcast. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2021-03-11; known on 2021-03-11; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2021-03-11.
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conditional on looking for a house with nico/sarah/noel, i will end up moving into one with them with $600 or lower rent ( 30% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-14; judged right by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.
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I will make at least 3 and resolve at least 3 predictions (on predictionbook or another prediction app/site) in each full week in feb ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.
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My daylio monthly average mood for Feb 2021 will be +0.5 or greater (on usual scoring system) ( 2% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-15; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.
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I will complete an AI based project which I can reasonably put on my CV for (computing) RA and internship apps by the start of sem 1 ( 35% confidence )
Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-14; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2021-03-06.
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COVID, UK – 13 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February, in line with government targets. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-10; known on 2021-02-16; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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COVID, UK – At least 17 million people have been vaccinated (at least one dose) by the 15th of February 2021. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-24; known on 2021-02-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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COVID, US – At least 57M Americans have received their first dose of vaccine by end of 28th February 2021. ( 25% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-05.
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If SpaceX's SN10 launch happens today, it will land successfully, defined as upright and with no explosions. ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-03-03; known on 2021-03-04; judged wrong by krazemon on 2021-03-04.
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there will be a Democratic Senate at least once by 2042 ( 96% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-05; known on 2043-01-01; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-03-03.
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I will weight 67kg or less by End February 2021 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2021-03-02.
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1-bed rent in Manhattan is at least 1% lower than it was in March 2019 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pdf on 2020-10-05; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by pdf on 2021-03-01.
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GME will reach $1000 at some point before 1 March 2021. ( 13% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by galaga on 2021-01-29; known on 2021-03-01; judged wrong by galaga on 2021-03-01.
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2/26 Pokémon Presents – Pokémon SwSh DLC ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-02-26; known on 2021-02-26; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-02-26.