What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 1 day ago; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by oakbound 4 days ago; known on 2023-06-01.
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[We will throw away the current data] within a year ( 70% confidence )
Created by beth_b 11 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[We will throw away the current data] Within 1 month ( 10% confidence )
Created by beth_b 11 days ago; known in 20 days.
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[We will throw away the current data] within 3 months ( 30% confidence )
Created by beth_b 11 days ago; known in 20 days.