Unjudged Predictions
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Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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aeon.co to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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http://fivethirtyeight.com/ to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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BuzzFeed to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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cracked.com to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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io9 to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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vox to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Haskell to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Java to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Justin Trudeau is caught some group of protesters the finger ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-08; known on 2021-01-01.
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Javascript to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Python to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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ATF Elimination Act passes ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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Coursera to become more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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College Confidential to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Something gets leaked that makes Donald Trump look dumb. ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2021-01-01.
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Harvard to have more undergraduates in 2020 than 2015 ( 55% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Age of Empires II to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LiveJournal to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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LessWrong to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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reddit to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Baseball to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Football to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Soccer to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Chess to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 45% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Poker to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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World of Warcraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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League of Legends to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Major personalities on predictionbook (gwern, JoshuaZ, etc) will migrate over to another prediction-based website by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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Google widely seen (by investors, wall street) as having successfully solved the issue of how to monetise a voice-centric world (including if such a world does not occur, or they avoid the problem). ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2021-01-01.
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feedly will be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01.
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epub to be the most popular file format for eBooks in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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FourSquare to still exist as an independent entity by 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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PDFy will stay intact to 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Daniel Dennett to do an IAmA on reddit by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Quora to be more popular than reddit by 2020 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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compulsory conscription in sweden, or sweden invaded ( 57% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-17; known on 2021-01-01.
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Dog Aging Study (http://dogagingproject.com/project-details/ ) to show that rapamycin will improve healthspan of middle-aged dogs by at least 2 years ( 75% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tuition at Harvard to be more expensive in 2020 than it is in 2015 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01.
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Ontario leaves cap & trade system ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2021-01-01.
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Created by viissataa on 2018-02-26; known on 2021-01-01.