Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 0% | 50% | 83% | 90% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 28 |
Displaying all predictions made by mat33. Filter by:
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HPMoR : ch 90 (or sooner): Harry would have to exploit the Dementor/Patronum valnerability to gain the Dark/Light Lordship. ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-07-04; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-07-02.
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HPMoR : ch 120 (or sooner): After understanding the death's place in evolution of life and mind, Harry would refuse become a Creator of the Words. ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by David on 2015-06-23.
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2013: Chinese household consumption <=35% of Chinese GDP —Michael Pettis ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Headmaster would allow Harry to exploit vulnerabilities of the magic Britain's economics to get out of debt (to Malfoy for his Hermione's “purchase”). ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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HP MoR: ch 85 (or sooner): Dumbledore will realize where and when did Harry had an opportunity not just to terrify Dementors, but to gain enough confidence in this achievement. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-04-23.
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HP MoR : ch 83 (or sooner): Instead of showing any gratidude to Harry, Hermione would have to rely on her outrage (at him) to fight her developing Harryphobia. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mat33 on 2012-04-03; known on 2012-04-17; judged wrong by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-04.
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Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07.
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Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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the Occupy Wall Street protest will begin suffering from communicable diseases and this cause the authorities to crack down and remove them all. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-04-01.
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'I predict…a major earthquake, magnitude seven or more will happen within twenty kilometers of a line from nagano city, nagano to matsudo, chiba' ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
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Harold Camping: “the whole world…will be annihilated together with the whole physical world” ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-10-22.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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“Chinese debt levels will continue to rise quickly over the rest of this year and next.” —Michael Pettis ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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“Feb 2012 (G12) Gold Futures to close ON or ABOVE 1700 on 30 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Magnitude 9.0 (or higher) earthquake to occur anywhere before midnight ET 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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Wikileaks will continue to exist as an organization through 2011. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.