Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 67% | 55% | 65% | 84% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 42 | 22 | 20 | 43 | 14 | 151 |
Displaying all predictions made by Peter Hurford. Filter by:
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There will be a New York Times article about reactionaries before 2014 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-04-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2014-01-01.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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North Korea will be in direct military conflict with another nation during this year. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.
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The Magic: the Gathering block “Theros” will be Classical/Greek/Roman/Hellenistic themed. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-03-25; known on 2013-09-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-06-23.
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Harvard will make it to the round of 16 in the 2013 NCAA tournament ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-03-24.
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UFO ET ORBITS MONDAY ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2013-03-25; judged wrong by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03.
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The Veronica Mars movie Kickstarter will break the all-tme Kickstarter record of $10.3 million. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-17; known on 2013-04-12; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-04-12.
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Italy's President (Napolitano) will resign before May 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-03-15; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-22.
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The Veronica Mars movie campaign on Kickstarter will reach $5 million. ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-12; judged right by phreeza on 2013-04-12.
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Of the five main internship opportunities I applied for and still haven't heard back from, I will be accepted at at least one more. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-14; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-18.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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I will have my drivers license by May 1, 2013. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-05-01.
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Of the six main internship opportunities I applied for, I will be accepted at at least one. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-03; known on 2013-04-30; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-14.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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The professor will offer some sort of reward to the students who show up at today's optional class ( 30% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Today's optional class will be worth attending ( 40% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Despite today's class being optional, the majority of the class will attend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-03-02; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in an illicit drug scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Alex Jones will be implicated in a sex scandal by the end of 2013. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-02-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as Secretary of Defense within one month of this prediction. ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25; known on 2013-03-25; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-02-26.
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The Democratic Party will keep a majority in the US Senate following the 2014 Midterm Elections ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2014-11-05; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2014-11-05.
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Daniel Day Lewis will win the Oscar for Best Actor ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Tommy Lee Jones will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actor ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Argo will win the Oscar Award for Best Picture ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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The US federal budget sequester (aka “automatic cuts”) will initially take place as planned (though it may or may not be fixed by later retroactive planning). ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-03-01.
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The next pope will be a white male. ( 69% confidence; 22 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-02-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Chuck Hagel will be confirmed as the Secretary of Defense within two weeks of this prediction. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-02-25; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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The Republicans will keep their US House majority after the 2014 elections ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-11-22.
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Electoral Vote Predictor (run by Andrew Tannenbaum) will come back in 2014. (http://www.electoral-vote.com/) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-02-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2014-02-05.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Loeb-Tiling AI” within three months ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by papermachine on 2013-05-06.
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EY posts something on “The Open Problem of Intelligence Explosion Microeconomics” within three months. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2013-02-06; known on 2013-05-06; judged right by Malo on 2013-04-29.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Hilary Clinton will not be running for President in the 2016 Presidential Election ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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John Cena will defeat The Rock at WrestleMania 29, becoming the WWE Champion. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-29; known on 2013-04-07; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-04-08.
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My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of the Spring 2014 semester (his estimated time of graduation) ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2014-05-12; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.
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My friend and chapter brother, A. U., will not have a little by the end of this Spring 2013 semester. ( 98% confidence )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-18.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The US government will not have defaulted by the end of 2013. ( 96% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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When he wrote The Signal and the Noise, Nate Silver was aware of Overcoming Bias but was not aware of Less Wrong. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2013-01-07; known on 2014-01-14.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Before 2015, it will be found (by a legal or governmental authority of the USA) that Aaron Swartz's death was not suicide. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Steven Spielberg will win the Oscar for Best Director. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Anne Hathaway will win the Oscar for Best Supporting Actress. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by Peter Hurford on 2013-02-25.
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Lincoln will win the Oscar for Best Picture. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-10; known on 2013-02-24; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Facebook will release a phone at their recently announced CES event. ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-08; known on 2013-01-15; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2013-01-16.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Berlusconi will be Italy's next premier ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2012-12-10; known on 2013-04-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-01.
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Regardless of who wins the election, there'll be a major “debt deal” before mid 2013 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by Peter Hurford on 2013-06-09.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.