Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 100% | 67% | 50% | 100% | 83% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 23 |
Displaying all predictions made by Mqrius. Filter by:
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2013. ( 12% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-01-01.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
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My friend's house will be connected to fiberglass internet before 2013. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2013-01-01.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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GJP: #1056 Will €1 Euro buy less than $1.20 US dollars at any point before 1 January 2013? ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The bitcoin protocol will have a fatal weakness that is discovered, leading to the crash of the bitcoin economy. End of year prediction. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 8 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February. ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 7 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
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“one of the top 5 biggest bitcoin sites will be hacked and the hacker will profit by gaining lots of bitcoins” —kiba ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 5 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Mqrius on 2012-01-01.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 4 $/฿ in December 2011. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-12-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-12-20.
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I will predict this prediction accurately. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Mqrius on 2011-11-17; known on 2011-11-17; judged right by Mqrius on 2011-11-17.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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I will complete all of the chapter 5 exercises in Introduction to JAVA Programming by 2011-12-03. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-06.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.