Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 66% | 61% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 42 | 107 | 90 | 80 | 154 | 10 | 483 |
Displaying all predictions made by ioannes. Filter by:
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Trump war with China, Trump removal, or delayed/non-existent elections by 2020. Details in comments. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-20; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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In February, Bitcoin prices will hit an ATL. And also rise to within $3800 of the ATH ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Nve on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-03-01.
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No Google Lunar X Prize finalists to soft-land on the Moon in 2018. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-26; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by kuudes on 2019-01-01.
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BTCUSD will exceed 20000 during 2018 ( 28% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2018-01-17; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2018-12-31.
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Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
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The US Democratic Party wins a majority in the US Senate after the 2018 Midterm elections ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Current Iranian regime is overthrown by April 2018 ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2018-01-02; known on 2018-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-04-02.
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Jeff Sessions will be AG on 12/31/18 ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-29; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached throughout his first term. ( 65% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-12-31.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Hillary Clinton will announce candidacy for the 2020 US Presidential Election ( 5% confidence; 19 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-12-19; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by JTPeterson on 2019-04-10.
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The United States Senate Alabama election will be won by Roy Moore ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-13.
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Btc below 7k USD before 2018 ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-03; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by objclone on 2018-01-01.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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Trump approval rating above 40% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-28; known on 2025-01-28.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Despacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-23.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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There will be an attempted assassination (including uncovered/failed assassination plots) of Donald Trump before his term ends (20 Jan 2021) ( 49% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2021-01-21; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-12.
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I go on a weeklong+ road trip by the end of September 2017 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.
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I will be a millionaire by 2026, 5 years after graduating college ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thebaelfire on 2017-07-14; known on 2026-01-01.
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August payment of parents loan > $700 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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August payment of parents loan > $1400 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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[The video with the most views on YouTube, as of January 1, 2018, will be] Despacito ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-01-01.
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I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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Parents' loan July payment > $999 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-11.
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Parents' loan July payment > $1400 ( 65% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-06-03; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Despacito will reach 2 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 2 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-17.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-21; known on 2017-05-28; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-28.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Politics, Iraq – Islamic State holds no territory in Mosul by the end of the 25th of May. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-05-26; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-05-25.
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Tech – Arrests made in connection with the the WannaCry ransomware before the 19th of June 2017 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-12; known on 2017-06-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-20.
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Politics, US – Special Prosecutor appointed to investigate connections between the Trump Campaign and Russia by the 17th of June 2017. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-10; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-05-19.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – All three of the remaining Confederacy monuments will be removed before the end of 2017 ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-07; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-20.
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Politics, US, New Orleans – At least two of the three remaining Confederacy monuments Landrieu has announced intent to remove are removed by the 20th of June 2017. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-07; known on 2017-06-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-17.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $1200 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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June 2017 parents loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-03; known on 2017-06-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-03.
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i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $150 million in lifetime money raised as of March 1, 2018. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2018-03-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2018-03-04.
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The Against Malaria Foundation would have finished raising $125 million in lifetime money raised as of October 1, 2017. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-28; known on 2017-10-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02.
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I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Fires started during the Berkeley protest today ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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Tear gas deployed in Berkeley today ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-04-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-30.
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I go to Ethiopia in June or July 2017 ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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L comes to DEF CON in July 2017 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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I go to DEFCON in July 2017 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Emmanuel Macron will be elected the next President of France. ( 77% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-23; known on 2017-05-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-07.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2018 ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2018-07-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-07-15.
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Emperor Akihito will abdicate the throne by January 1, 2019. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“Yes” succeeds in Turkey's referendum ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by June 1 2017 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-06-01.
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The Weeknd's Starboy youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by leo_grint on 2017-08-02.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by May 1, 2017 ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >100 million views by May 1, 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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More than 10,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by June 1, 2017 ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-06-02; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01.
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By 2019-12-31: Kendrick Lamar releases next studio album. A month after its first official release on some platform, its Metacritic score is strictly greater than that of GKMC. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-05-15.
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China will fully seize executive power in Hong Kong by 2018. ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nick.dylan on 2017-04-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Three or more dates in the next 10 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-04-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-24.
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I drop out of the ultraworking pentathlon ( 33% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-13; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-04-25.
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I will cancel Netflix before my trial ends ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2017-05-04; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-19.
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The United States will be in an active, major war with North Korea as of May 1, 2017. ( 8% confidence; 22 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Steve Bannon is demoted in some fashion or leaves the White House before the end of April 2017 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-08; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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The Republicans will use the nuclear option to approve Gorsuch. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-04-04; known on 2017-04-18; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-04-06.
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Parents' loan payment > $1350 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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Parents' loan payment > $999 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-03; known on 2017-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-03.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test within 30 days [2017-04-01] ( 46% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-05-01.
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Politics, US – Deal struck involving at least one Democrat to confirm Gorsuch to Supreme Court in April. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-04-01; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-04-07.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Colbert stops being a late show host by August 2017 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-02.
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I go to Burning Man 2017 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-29; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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The New York Times stops delivering paper newspapers in 2017 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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The San Francisco Bay Area will experience an earthquake in 2017 equal to or greater than that of the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake ( magnitude 6.9 and a maximum Mercalli intensity of IX (Violent)) ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by custom on 2017-03-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – Paul Ryan still Speaker of the House of Representatives up to end of April. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-03-26; known on 2017-05-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-05-01.
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I go to the Digital Identity summit 2017 ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-10-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-16.
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North Korea conducts a nuclear test in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-24; known on 2018-01-15; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09.
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ISIS claims responsibility for the 2017-03-22 UK parliament attack. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-05-15; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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The 2017 Mar 22 attack on the UK Parliament was done by a person or persons who support Islamic extremism ( 79% confidence; 7 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-03-22; known on 2017-04-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-03-23.
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Second date with R ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-13.
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Second date with J ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-04-17.
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Second date with L ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-04-15; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-27.
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Uber will go bankrupt, dissolve, or merge with another company by the end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2017-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Rachel Maddow commits suicide in 2017 ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Two+ dates in the next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-24.
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Date tonight ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-17; known on 2017-03-18; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-18.
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Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.
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I meet C tonight ( 50% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-16; known on 2017-03-17; judged right by ioannes on 2017-03-17.
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NBE approval comes in ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-03-24; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-03-28.