Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by kish. Filter by:
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Solar flare to harm life on Earth ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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World economic depression ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.