Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 49% | 72% | 69% | 91% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 35 | 46 | 35 | 128 | 7 | 272 |
Displaying all predictions made by rebellionkid. Filter by:
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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9fd811e61b18aa0228a6da4610bbd4de96f69f0e1dd77eeb68d182862f925780 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-07; known on 2015-10-25.
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The chlorine attack on MWFF is found to have been targeted against furries per se for political reasons. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-06-10.
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Rand Paul will be the Republican Nominee for President for the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Season ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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Tories win >316 ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.
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Tories win >325 seats ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08; known on 2015-05-09; judged right by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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The average of the big seat predictions overstates Tory seats ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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I agree with the statement “there was no shy Tory effect” ( 90% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-07; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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I win money in total after all my May 7th bets close ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The contract gets signed tomorrow ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05; known on 2015-05-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-06.
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Nick Clegg will still be leader of the Lib Dems a week following the UK GE ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-05-01; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-05-08.
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I will vote Lib Dem in the election ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-06-19.
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At least one US Presidential candidate who is major enough to appear in one of the major Presidential debates will mention the growth of AI sometime before the Presidential election. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-30.
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I will fall asleep on the Megabus journey back to London ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-16; known on 2015-04-21; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-04-22.
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The next president elect will be a member of the democratic party. ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-09; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Rand Paul to win the Republican party nomination for President. ( 10% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-08; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-05-03.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 4th/5th April ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-05; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-05.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST 3rd/4th April ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03; known on 2015-04-04; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-04.
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“Antonin Scalia to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-02-14.
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/r/thebutton does not get to zero before midnight BST ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-04-02; known on 2015-04-03; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-04-03.
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UKIP will have more seats than the Liberal Democrats following the next UK general election ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-03-30; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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A party not in the government is whipped to back or abstain on the first Queens Speech of next parliament ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-13; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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Roberts votes with the majority on King v Burwell ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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King v. Burwell is decided for the government. ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-05; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by David on 2015-06-25.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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Congress passes a substantial repeal of Obamacare in the next 5 years ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-03-17.
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Either Scott Walker or Jeb Bush win the GOP nomination ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-03-01; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Eliezer will accept an answer involving Harry secretly partially transfiguring something while his wand is pointed at the ground in such a way that Voldemort doesn't notice until too late. ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JohnWittle on 2015-02-28; known on 2015-03-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-05.
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At least one English or Welsh incumbent currently on >10% majority will be unseated at the election. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-21; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Emma Watson and Prince Harry publicly confirm they are dating within a week. ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-20; known on 2015-02-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-02-28.
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On 1st June the PM is a member of the Labour party ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-06-08.
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Labor force participation rate will hit below 62% this decade. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
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The standard unemployment rate will be below 5% by January 2016. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-02-02.
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There will not be a recession in this decade (two consecutive quarters of negative gdp growth) in the US. ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2020-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Obama signs executive order legalizing marijuana on the last day of his presidency. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RESO on 2015-02-05; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by RESO on 2017-01-20.
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George Galloway will not appear in the main televised debates in the run up to the general election. ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-03; known on 2015-05-16; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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The televised debates between party leaders proposed by the major broadcasters of the United Kingdom in the run-up to the 2015 general election will not happen. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.
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The four main supermarket chains of the United Kingdom (Tesco, Asda, Morrison's and Sainsbury's) will all be solvent by the end of 2015. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-02-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, a single party will hold a majority in the House of Commons. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged right by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; however, it will be possible for two parties combined to hold a majority. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Following the 2015 UK general election, no party will hold a majority; furthermore, no two parties combined will hold a majority, with the exception of a 'grand coalition' between Labour and the Conservatives. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Greece, will still have the Euro at the end of 2016 ( 66% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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Contingent on him being nominated for President by the GOP, Rand Paul will be elected President of the United States in the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election. ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Faceh on 2015-01-25; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-11-28.
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US Supreme Court to rule in favor of gay marriage. ( 76% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-17; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-06-26.
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The UK will have another coalition government after the election in 2015 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RogerE on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-05-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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The SNP will get the most seats in Scotland next General Election ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by splorridge on 2015-06-16.
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Ukip will get the highest amount of seats next General Election ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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Ukip will have over 20 seats after the next UK general election ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-10.
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Ukip will have five or less seats following the UK general election. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Vladimir Putin will be president of Russia as of 1st January 2016 ( 91% confidence; 18 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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Queen Elizabeth II will announce her abdication before 1st January 2016 ( 10% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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The Labour Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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The next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom will be Ed Miliband ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-14; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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The Conservative Party will have the largest number of seats following the UK GE. ( 37% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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No party will achieve an overall majority in the House of Commons in the May 2015 general election ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by doxievee on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Ed Miliband will be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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David Cameron will still be Prime Minister of the United Kingdom as of 1st January 2016 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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At the end of the year, AMF will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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At the end of the year, GiveDirectly will still be a GiveWell recommended charity. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-03; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Brent crude trades below $20 at some point in 2015 ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.
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Scott Aaronson will not make a “tearful apology” for either Comment 171 or for any related remarks that he has made as of 9 AM December 31. ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-31; known on 2015-01-25; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-25.
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The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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At some point next year I will publicly declare myself to be a furry. ( 20% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-11; known on 2017-01-01.
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Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Conservatives win Thanet South at next election ( 40% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Theresa May to be next tory leader ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.
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We'll have another dot-com boom by 2016 (NASDAQ reaching 5k) ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-03-06.
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No body is found, no murder charge filed, and no confession is given regarding “MP murdering a child” story. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-11-16; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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The US Supreme Court will rule in favor of the government in King v. Burwell ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-14; known on 2015-11-15; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Britain will still be part of the EU in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by dvolk on 2020-01-10.
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There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.
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UKIP wins at least 9 MPs at the next election ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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Lib Dems win at most 5 MPs at the next election. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.
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UKIP wins Clacton by-election ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-28; known on 2014-10-10; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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Housmates about to set the fire alarm off ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-09-27; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
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If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.
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Any Lab>UKIP defection this parliament ( 30% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-05.
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A third Tory>UKIP defection before the Tory conference ends. ( 60% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2014-10-02; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-01.
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At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP by the end of this parliament. ( 80% confidence )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
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At least one Tory MP defects to UKIP before the end of their party conference. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-26; known on 2014-10-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27.
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In 2 years I will conclude that bombing IS was net negative. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-25; known on 2016-09-25.
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UKIP wins the Heywood and Middleton by-election ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-24; known on 2014-10-09; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-10-10.
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Conditional on Scotland voting yes, Cameron resigns within a month ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2014-10-15.
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NO will win the Scottish Referendum by 5% ±3% ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by thostian on 2014-09-16; known on 2014-09-14; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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The scottish referendum vote will be >60% yes ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be 50-60% yes ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The scottish referendum vote will be less than 50% yes ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by scav on 2014-09-14; known on 2014-09-19; judged right by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.