Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 25% | 62% | 56% | 79% | 93% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 88 | 17 | 145 |
Displaying all predictions made by Emanuel Rylke. Filter by:
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I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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The prophecy in HPMR refers to Harry and Death, not Harry and Voldemort. ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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HP MoR: The rock Dumbledore gave Harry is or contains James Potter ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: Quirrel will have Hermione killed with Harry as a witness ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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HP MoR: Harry will become an Animagus who turns into a human ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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HP MoR: Minerva McGonagall said “Not your fault” in Chapter 89. ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jaibot on 2013-07-02; known on 2013-09-02; judged wrong by jaibot on 2013-07-06.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Bitcoin may means-revert ~$10/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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Bitcoin to hit ~$20/btc “in a few weeks” —Scott Locklin model ( 10% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-04-17; known on 2013-05-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-05-22.
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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BTC hits $1000 within the year ( 15% confidence; 20 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $500 within the year ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-11-28.
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BTC hits $200 within the year ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2013-04-09.
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Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
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There will be a computer input device that is faster at text input than a keyboard (average of 1.5x speedup or more), reasonably quiet (not standard text dictation), and does not require the use of the eyes. Used by 20% of software developers. ( 25% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by zpinter on 2013-03-31; known on 2018-03-31; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-04-05.
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There will be pictures of the sandcastle from xkcd 1190 online within a year ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-03-31; known on 2014-03-30; judged right by NancyLebovitz on 2014-03-30.
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My second wisdom teeth will emerge in the next month ( 90% confidence )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-23; known on 2013-04-23; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-04-27.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $75 within the next 30 days. ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-04-20; judged right by tedks on 2013-03-25.
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Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
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BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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The price of bitcoins meets or exceeds $50 within the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-06; known on 2013-04-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-03-19.
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The price of bitcoins on MtGox meets or exceeds $45.00 in the next 30 days. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2013-03-05; known on 2013-04-04; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-06.
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Scott, of Slate Star Codex, will land his residency ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by torekp on 2013-03-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by simplicio on 2013-03-11.
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The price of bitcoins exceeds $35 on mtgox in the next 30 days. ( 55% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-02-22; known on 2013-03-24; judged right by nanotube on 2013-03-04.
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The recently resigned pope will announce he is an atheist ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-05-11; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-05-11.
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Western Australia will secede from the Commonwealth of Australia by the end of 2025. ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-02-06; known on 2025-12-31.
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Neither US nor Russian governments will make announcements claiming the existence of sentient aliens this year. http://www.eutimes.net/2013/01/russia-orders-obama-tell-world-about-aliens-or-we-will/ ( 98% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-01-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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DE: Philipp Roesler will step down as chairman of the FDP before the federal election ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-17; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-10-01.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Economic and social collapse in the United States will progress to a point that Barack Obama will use emergency powers in order to not cede the office of the President at the end of his second term, perhaps even cancelling elections in 2016. ie Empire ( 3% confidence; 32 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by thephilosiraptor on 2013-01-13; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Google will be selling flying cars by December 2016 ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by neilscott on 2016-11-26.
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By the end of 2013, the government will have never minted a trillion dollar coin. ( 94% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Peter Hurford on 2013-01-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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“Ubuntu for phones” will have less than 5% market share by the end of 2014. ( 91% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-05; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by dhoe on 2014-12-31.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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We will detect evidence of Intelligent alien life within the next 50 years. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by drethelin on 2012-12-23; known on 2062-12-23.
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The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-11.
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Apple will still use intel CPUs in Macs in 2016 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Nate Silver will become a public expert on climate change statistics by the year 2016 ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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The 2016 presidential election will be Jeb Bush v. Hillary Clinton. Yes, again! ( 14% confidence; 27 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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I will start to learn Korean before 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-23; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2015-01-23.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.
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I will implement obstacles in my game today. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05; known on 2012-10-05; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-10-05.
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A minecraft-style MMO (simple sandbox game supporting > 500 players) will launch within 5 years ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2017-09-26.
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HPMOR: The character of Harry will ultimately come to at least consider the fact that he is literally within a story. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by learnmethis on 2012-09-26; known on 2015-09-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Gene Munster + Brian White: APPL price target of > $910 by May 2013 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
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There will be <=3 MLP-related posts on LessWrong in January 2013. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-15; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-02-01.
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A Libertarian Party candidate will receive more of the popular vote in the 2016 presidential election than the Republican candidate. ( 6% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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PG will not reply to Eliezer's question on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-17; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-17.
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Microsoft will buy Nokia. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bknakker on 2012-09-10; known on 2014-09-01; judged right by bknakker on 2013-09-09.
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PredictionBook will have an iphone ap by June 30 2013 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2013-06-30; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2013-07-01.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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User Epiphany will cease commenting or posting on LW within a month ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting through end of 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-31.
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China will win more gold medals than India in 2040 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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App.net will try to find a way to get money from people who have pledged at join.app.net, even if they don't hit their $500K goal. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-08-09; known on 2012-08-20; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-08-12.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Sky City will take more than 90 days of construction time to build or will not be built at all in the next 2 years. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-06-19; known on 2014-06-19; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Spain will officially seek a EU bailout this weekend ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-08; known on 2012-06-11; judged right by chimpsky on 2012-06-09.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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Facebook shares will not pass 100$ per share by the end of 2012. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidiach on 2012-06-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Apple TV to debut in December 2012 —Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 — Steve Ballmer ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Emanuel Rylke will not get a job within the next 2 years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukas on 2012-05-24; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2014-01-24.
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“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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HP MoR: 'I bet Quirrel will die fighting Voldemort to protect Harry before chapter 100' —shminux ( 3% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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HP MoR: Narcissa Malfoy killed herself accidentally eg. by Fiendfyre (analogous to Goyle) ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-08; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-12.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The smallest federated wiki will move beyond the stage of proof of concept this year. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-16; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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I will eat a slice of bread with cheese next Friday. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-03; known on 2012-02-10; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-02-10.
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There will be working blueprints for a space elevator by 2017. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by iconreforged on 2012-01-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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“Facebook will back into an IPO by buying Yahoo” —Mr Windows ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.