Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 60% | 63% | 75% | 82% | 87% | 93% | |
Sample Size | 1292 | 1606 | 2197 | 2343 | 2286 | 671 | 10395 |
Displaying all predictions made by Cato. Filter by:
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] Canadian federal election to be held as scheduled on October 21, 2019 ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 26,000 and 30,000 ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election in 2019 ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] Singapore to hold general election by 3Q19 EOQ ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of December, if I have not yet accepted an offer ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Personal] I will have applied to at least 5 jobs by the end of November, if I have not yet accepted an offer ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-12-01.
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[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.
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[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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Uber to file for IPO before August 1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01.
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[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.
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[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.
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[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 H1 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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Uber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-13.
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[Fighting] A UFC champion to move to a different promotion (e.g., ONE or Bellator) ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Fighting] No more UFC “numbered events” to be canceled or rescheduled in 2019 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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[Fighting] Namajunas and Andrade to fight at UFC 237 as scheduled ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[Fighting] Namajunas vs. Andrade to be the main event at UFC 237, conditional on their bout not being canceled/postponed ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2019 EOY ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 3Q19 EOQ ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 1Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-01.
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[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.
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Harley-Davidson to release its electric motorcycle (Project Livewire) as scheduled in August 2019 ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] > 40 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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British Museum to return Hoa Hakananai’a to Rapa Nui in 2019 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] Conservatives to win more seats than Liberals in Canada's federal election ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-22; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-22.
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[Fighting] Georges St-Pierre to fight again in 2019 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-28.
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[Economy] UK's Economic Policy Uncertainty Index for March 2019 to be higher than any month after July 2016 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-04-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-02.
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[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[OMX Tallinn] to perform better in 2019 than in 2018 ( 75% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform S&P 500 in 2019 ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Riga in 2019 ( 42% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-03.
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[OMX Tallinn] to outperform OMX Vilnius in 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] None of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Laplace” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Market” to perform best ( 60% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through September EOM ( 85% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-10-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through August EOM ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM ( 90% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-high attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] be canceled ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw record-low attendance, assuming it is not canceled ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[Hong Kong vigil to commemorate 30th anniversary of Tian'anmen Square Incident to] draw fewer than 100,000 people, assuming it is not canceled ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC December rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-12-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-12.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC October rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-10-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-01.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC September rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-09-19; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-19.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.
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American troops participate in an armed conflict in Venezuela before 2024 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-02-25; known on 2024-01-01.
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Alexander Acosta (Rene Alexander Acosta) will not be the United States Secretary of Labor before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-02-23; known on 2020-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-12.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Market” to perform best ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Laplace” to perform best ( 28% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] “Reach” to perform best ( 18% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] None of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC 235] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Market” to perform best ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-25.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] “Laplace” to perform best ( 28% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-25.