Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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The character of George Washington will make a Face Heel Turn in Assassin's Creed 3. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by papermachine on 2012-11-01.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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CDS on Greek Debt will be triggered by May 1 (about 6 weeks) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-11.
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Philadelphia will get past the first round of the 2012 NBA playoffs ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2012-05-20; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11.
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Jeremy Lin's NBA career will last over 2 years (defining he's done if he doesn't play more than 250 mins a season — around 3 minutes a game) ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2014-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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US obesity is going down (2012 “obesity” as measured by government health data will be lower than the percentage in 2011) ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-02-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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The Syrian regime will reach EOL by december 2012. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-27.
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Miami Heat will win NBA championship in 2012 ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-06-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-22.
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Windows will have greater than 12% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now). ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-02; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-03-01.
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[Russia] Vladimir Putin will receive at least 60% of the vote (official election results). ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2012-03-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05.
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[Marginal Revolution] Facebook Credits, or some other pseudo-currency, will become widely accepted for offline transactions throughout the world within ten years. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-03-02; known on 2022-12-31.
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First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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iPad 3 will have a quad-core CPU ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-07.
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Chrome will be ahead of Internet Explorer (all versions) in the StatCounter daily Global Stats for next Sunday. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2012-02-27; known on 2012-03-05; judged wrong by faws on 2012-03-05.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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GJP: #1089 Will Iran successfully detonate a nuclear device, either atmospherically, underground, or underwater before 1 January 2013? ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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Initial release of iPhone 5 or iPad 3 (or their market names) will allow installing your own applications, without jailbreaking or signing up for a developer program ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-05; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-21.
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By 2020, a single-word term for additive fabrication technology will replace “3D printing” in the media. ( 53% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2020-01-01.
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PredictionBook will display users' Brier scores by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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United States ceases to be a net fuel importer for 2012. (60%) —knb ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-02-02.
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US official unemployment rate is still above 7% in December 2012. (75%) —knb ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Mitt Romney secures GOP nomination within 2 weeks after Super Tuesday. ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-03-20; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-03-21.
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Apple's share in the smartphone market will collapse to 10% or less by the end of this year. ( 31% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by kiba on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-30.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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Either Morotola or Cisco will buy Tivo. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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General AI will not be built by 2013 ( 97% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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The winner of the 2012 US presidential election will have been the candidate that spent more money on the campaign than any other individual candidate. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Ecuador to be paid 3.6bn USD to not develop its oil reserves & preserve its rainforest. ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-17.
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Bashar al-Assad will not be president of Syria on Dec 31 2012 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Robin Hanson will publish a book before 2015. ( 27% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Microsoft will buy RIM —Cringely ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Chrome will be the most widely used browser during July 2012 according to StatCounter. ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-08-05; judged right by faws on 2012-07-31.
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Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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“[Hillary] Clinton will be Obama's running mate” ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-10; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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The US will be at war with Iran by 2014 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-12-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Greece will leave the Euro currency and return to the “Drachme” latest by mid 2012. ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2012-07-01.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Intel will revolutionize computing by placing the first artificial quantum computer chip on the maket by 2025. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-01-16.
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By 2036 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2036-01-01.
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The SCOTUS ruling on the Obama administration's health care reform law will be a 5-4 decision. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-07-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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United States Facebook user base will fall under 100,000,000 users by December 31, 2013. ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Joe Craig on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-24.
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Barack Obama will win the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Dutch house prices as reported by cbs.nl will have fallen more than 3% year on year by September 2012 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2011-10-24; known on 2012-10-31; judged right by dhoe on 2012-10-24.
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The U.S. economy will not be back to 6% or less unemployment until 2018. ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-18; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-03-07.
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Apple (AAPL) will buy Vimeo. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nieskens on 2011-10-17; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-16.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Apple smartphones will have under 30% US market share at the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Ubs will sell off its investment arm ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurablack on 2011-09-26; known on 2012-03-26; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-26.
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Apple market capitalization >=$1 trillion by 2017 ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-31.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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SpaceX to successfully dock with the ISS by January 1, 2013 ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-25.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By the end of 2012, there will be a general consensus that the gold bubble has burst. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Stevens on 2013-01-01.
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Usain Bolt will leave a positive doping test before or during the London Olympics ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-03; known on 2012-09-03; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-08-13.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Nokia's share price will fall by 50% in the next two years ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2011-08-22; known on 2013-08-22; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.
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Google+ will revoke its ban on pseudonymous accounts within a year. ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2012-08-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-20.
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The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2014” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-12-31.
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“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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“United States to conduct overt military action against North Korea before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
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Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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P=NP, and proven by 12 December 2012 —Dick Lipton ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-12-12; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-12.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.
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'However, Android's gains will mostly be at the low end of the market; the iPhone will continue to outsell any single Android smartphone model by a wide margin.' —FtT ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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“By January 21, 2016, Facebook will not have the largest market share of social network users who log in at least once per day.” —John Feminella ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2016-01-21; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-21.
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GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
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Over the next year or two, Apple will bring Cocoa development to the Windows desktop via an App Store that sells titles to a broad audience — Daniel Eran Dilger http://bit.ly/aXTPXK ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-11-15; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Computers have made paper books and documents almost completely obsolete by 2020. —Ray Kurzweil ( 16% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Jeb Bush will announce a candidacy for president in 2012 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-09; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-01.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2020, there will be a new World government. —Ray Kurzweil ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'Sweden becomes the first oil-free country' by 2021 ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'the MacBook Air in the future (18-24 months) will switch to ARM once the >2GHz ARM processors start shipping en masse' —pkaler ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-22; known on 2012-10-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-21.