Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
Displaying all predictions made by WilliamBerkeley. Filter by:
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Before May 2017, we will see authentic video footage of Donald Trump in the same room as one or more women urinating on a bed ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2017-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-01.
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Before 2025, most of Russia will become part of the United States, or the reverse, or they will in some other manner become the same sovereign state, or part of the same sovereign state ( 0% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-10; known on 2025-01-01.
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Less Wrong renaissance attempt will seem less (rather than more) successful by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-15; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2018-08-30.
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No race riot in the US killing > 5 people in 2017 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-01-03.
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US unemployment to be higher at end of 2017 than beginning ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-03-09.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2017 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Fewer refugees admitted to Europe in 2017 than 2016 ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2018-02-01.
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No announcement of genetically engineered human baby or credible plan for such during 2017 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Melania or Donald Trump to file for divorce or separation, or to be publicly separated by January 15th , 2017 ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-10-09; known on 2017-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-15.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.