Unjudged Predictions
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Conditional on neither Cruz nor Paul winning the Republican nomination, The2ndAmendment will when asked say they are supporting the Republican nominee for President. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-24; known on 2016-07-22.
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Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-07-16.
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I will get into one of Harvard, MIT, or Princeton ( 15% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-14.
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In the beginning of 2016, it will be more difficult for a university to not provide civil servants/qualified workers than the beginning of 2015 in canada. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-11; known on 2016-07-01.
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I will submit my capstone project for accounting on the fourth Monday of June, 2016 ( 78% confidence )
Created by helldalgo on 2016-05-23; known on 2016-06-30.
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Engaged MonJune27 – 45% opens, 2% clicks ( 70% confidence )
Created by polyopticon on 2016-06-26; known on 2016-06-28.
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M:BG will have a playable alpha. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2016-06-16.
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If I'm still alive, I (xrisque) will still be single. ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16.
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I will retire at the end of June. ( 90% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-06-15.
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80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.
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Skype translator will be a huge success ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by influnza on 2014-06-07; known on 2016-06-07.
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I will sleep with the P-girl this year ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2015-11-17; known on 2016-06-06.
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The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2016-06-02.
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I will have a super awesome computer before the release of Black Desert (in Europe). ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-06-01.
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I will get the GROW ( 85% confidence )
Created by spicedpiano on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-06-01.
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The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.
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I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 35% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-30.
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I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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I will use predictionbook at least once a week. ( 32% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.
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My dry eyes will be noticeably better in 6 months from my last appointment with Dr. Hennie where he told me to take the triglyceride form of fish oil. ( 70% confidence )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-04-01.
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Children born with symptoms enough to be diagnosed as ADHD will rise as result of a rise in its treatment with stimulant medications. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ShadyPharmacist on 2012-04-15; known on 2016-03-27.
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https://encipher.it?DI8w thyroglossal duct cyst ( 90% confidence )
Created by eldorz on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-03-23.
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Created by eldorz on 2016-03-01; known on 2016-03-15.
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9502008321: Multifocal GBM ( 90% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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9771039943: ABC ( 80% confidence )
Created by Dylan.Kurda on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-02-22.
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U6* unemployment will be under 10% by this time next year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-02-10; known on 2016-02-10.
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I will be accepted for an interview at that type foundry, after having written, just for my application, a font previewing app with the tools they use. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rory O’Kane on 2016-01-09; known on 2016-01-30.
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Path cc ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Gstarr310 on 2016-01-21; known on 2016-01-21.
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I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-01-16.
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If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. (https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will enjoy the new Star Wars movie as much as the original. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bhh322 on 2015-11-28; known on 2016-01-06.
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Gathering/absorbing Hawking radiation and generating a net surplus of useful energy (not counting what you feed into the black hole) would violate the Second Law of Thermodynamics. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by orthonormal on 2015-08-18; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: the original Quirrel killed his parents ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about what happened to the phoenix Fawkes ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why the Dementors are out to get Quirrel ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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HP MoR: ch45: The hint is about why Harry can't hear Dementors ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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I think that I will be working at the VA by the end of next month ( 60% confidence )
Created by DarthSophius on 2015-11-04; known on 2016-01-01.
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There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.
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Univision will survive as a free over the air station until 2016 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-10; known on 2016-01-01.
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UA would not join russian custom union in next two years ( 70% confidence )
Created by vasaka on 2014-01-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed legislation to implement mandatory minimum sentences for stone throwers will still be there two months after the Knife Intifada has ceased. ( 60% confidence )
Created by mojo.rhythm on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01.
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General consensus that North Korea is behind the Sony hack attack by January 1, 2016 ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-20; known on 2016-01-01.
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Before or coinciding with the release of the Apple Watch, Apple will [announce or release an new iPod touch model (however minor the differences)] or [announce the end of the iPod touch line or brand]. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2015-02-16; known on 2016-01-01.
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At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system on a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2015. A case started before 2016, but finished in the year 2016 counts as well. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01.
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“The International Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report will conclude it is likely, or more than likely, that human-caused global warming has increased hurricane intensity in the 1995-2005 time period.” ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2015-12-31.
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I will quit my day job this year. ( 55% confidence )
Created by MattG on 2015-01-30; known on 2015-12-31.