Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 17% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 60% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 6 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 | 19 |
Displaying all predictions made by siscoking. Filter by:
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Bitcoin “Coverage in media will decrease” ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-01.
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A nuclear device (bomb, granade etc) with a strength of more than 1 kiloton will explode anywhere in the middle east within the next 5 years. ( 13% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-29; known on 2017-01-29; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-30.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 between 20 and 24 US$. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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This prediction will be deleted within 5 days. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-14; known on 2012-01-19.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 35 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 30 ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 25 ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 20 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 15 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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Bitcoin value 01.April.2012 more than US$ 10 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-15; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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The future of the Euro: “Euro survives”. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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NDAA 2012, H.R. 1540 will be seen as the “end of democracy” in the USA within 5 years. ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-11; known on 2012-01-01.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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Iran will not be invaded or attacked this year ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by modulus on 2012-01-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by modulus on 2013-01-01.
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The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining countries retain the Euro as a currency of the smaller Euro zone, without Germany. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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The future of the Euro: Pheripheral countries leave, Germany and France lead move to fiscal union. Smaller Euro survives. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-17.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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Gold will be $2000 by Jan 2012 ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by eduffy on 2011-11-03; known on 2012-01-16; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-16.