Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 25% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 1 | 31 |
Displaying all predictions made by Waring. Filter by:
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By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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Conditional on no Brexit, George Osborne will be the next British Prime Minister ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2020-06-01.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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United Ireland by 2020 ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-06-05; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2020-10-12.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Wales wins Euro 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-07.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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All children in the US must have GPS attached to them in some sense by law if they leave their parents house. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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Palau, Panama, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Lebanon, will be high income countries by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-09; known on 2020-12-25.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The British Conservative Party will win the next UK general election with an outright majority of MPs (not conditional on election date) ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-11; known on 2020-05-10; judged wrong by Waring on 2017-08-03.
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Conditional on Brexit, Boris Johnson will be the next British Prime Minister. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Waring on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-06-01; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-06-30.
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Another supreme court justice will die during Obama's presidency. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-20; judged wrong by Faceh on 2017-01-20.
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Sanders will endorse Clinton as the 2016 Democratic nominee. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-10-31; judged right by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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Jeb Bush will be the next President-elect ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-03; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-02-21.
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Leo wins an Academy Award. ( 75% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-01-31; known on 2016-02-29; judged right by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-29.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Chelsea will make the Top 4 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-03; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Waring on 2016-04-19.
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Brexit: UK will vote to leave the EU in the referendum. ( 39% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-11; known on 2017-11-25; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
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Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour party until the next general election ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.