Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Recent Predictions
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On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.
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The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-12-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-10-01.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.
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By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-12-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.
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CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.
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Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-08-01.
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By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2018-10-01.
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On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-09-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.
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Stormfront comes back up ( 49% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.
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early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2018-06-16.
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Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-08-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-27.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged right by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )
Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.
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There will be at least one planeswalker in the upcoming MTG set Unstable ( 99% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-12-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-12-08.
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Trump pardons Sheriff Joe Arpaio ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-23; known on 2018-08-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2019-08-25.
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In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-30.
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Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.
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It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.
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The first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-08-21.
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Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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Functional Jubilee in the US ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-02-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.
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Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.
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Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.
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Sargon of Akkad gets cut from youtube ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-08-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.
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The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2017-08-15; known on 2017-09-12; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.
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Charlottesville car admits to being a conservative ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-10.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-08-31.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.
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I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-08-28.
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ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.
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I will get out of the apartment before 9:15am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 80% confidence )
Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.
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I will get up from bed before 8am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 60% confidence )
Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged right by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.
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Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-08-12; known on 2018-11-10.
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Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.
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The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Created by Pablo on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-15.