Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 62% | 58% | 55% | 67% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 21 | 43 | 42 | 21 | 18 | 1 | 146 |
Displaying all predictions made by LukeS. Filter by:
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 7 for more deaths ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 3-6 deaths ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-01-29.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 1-2 deaths ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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[Due to the physical violence of attendees and law enforcement at Joe Biden's Inauguration (Jan 20, 2021), there will be (within the first 48 hours) ] 0 deaths ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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Donald Trump will be in Prison on voting day 2028 (Tuesday, Nov 7th, 2028) ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-12-09; known on 2028-11-08; judged unknown by lazarus on 2020-12-27.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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Mike Pence will become President before Joe Biden does ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-21; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-21.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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Both GA senate races will go Republican in January ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-08; known on 2021-01-15; judged wrong by LukeS on 2021-01-08.
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Election results declared tonight (Nov 3) by the majority of major news outlets ( 50% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-03; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by LukeS on 2020-11-04.
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bitcoin will rise above $20k at least once before May 1st (six months from now) ( 55% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by LukeS on 2020-12-18.
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Fight by end of camping ( 35% confidence )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-28; known on 2020-10-10; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-11.
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Supreme Court Nomination seen through before Pres election. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by LukeS on 2020-09-26; known on 2020-11-03; judged right by LukeS on 2020-10-28.
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Republican remains Senate majority after 2020 election ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-09-24; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Harris will becoming the new Democratic candidate for the office of President (due to Biden's withdrawal or some other circumstance). ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2020-09-16; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-04.