Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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Z-Cash will be above $50 (Price on 1/3/17) at the end of 2017 ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $20 at the end of 2017 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Ethereum will be above $10 at the end of 2017 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2018-01-01.
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Bitcoin will end 2017 higher than $1000 ( 71% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, gwern will write a new article for the English Wikipedia and Vipul Naik will pay for the work https://contractwork.vipulnaik.com/ ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Republicans will maintain control of the House of Representatives in 2018 elections ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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President Jerry Brown ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.
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Ivanka Trump will be President-elect before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will not be impeached during his first term ( 86% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2016-11-25; known on 2020-11-30; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-12.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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#Calexit ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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America allies with North Korea, declares war on South Korea ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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51%+ of remaining humanity are muslims ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-03; known on 2046-09-03.
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Libertarian Party wins presidency in 2020. ( 3% confidence; 20 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-08-26; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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at least one of the following survives 2017: SEPA, Visa, Mastercard, US federal reserve, ECB, Deutsche Bank ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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In case Congress ever gets to actually charging President Trump with something sufficiently egregious to warrant Impeachment, a new war begins involving the US ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-10-21.
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France holds 'leave EU' referendum ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-25; known on 2020-07-24; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-07-30.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Arbital to become a top-1000 site by 2020 ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2021-01-01.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Reddit will exist in a recognizably similar form to its current incarnation, as of December 31, 2019. ( 70% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2015-12-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by sflicht on 2020-01-01.
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Nuclear exchange between India and Pakistan in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-11-06; known on 2025-11-07.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.
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The Renminbi will eclipse the US dollar as Reserve Currency in 2022. Central banks will hold their reserves in renminbi instead of the USD as they currently do. The USD will be No2 instead of No1. The IMF will be the source of data. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-17; known on 2022-05-28; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-05-26.
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Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100. ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-16; known on 2100-01-01.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.
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World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.
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We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.
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Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.
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Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google will acquire Yelp by 2018 ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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PredictionBook will still survive by the end of 2020 ( 83% confidence; 40 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Among the top 10% highest-earning jobs (incl. self-employment) in the US, >=75% of the total hours worked will be worked from home. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sh on 2015-06-25; known on 2035-06-01.
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Apple will buy Tesla by 2020 ( 17% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ira on 2015-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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The Internet Archive will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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arXiv will operate through 2025-07-01 ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-06-11; known on 2025-07-01.
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Commercial fusion reactors by end of 2040. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2041-01-01.
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At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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By the year 2050, Nuclear weapons would have been abolished globally for the benefit of mankind. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2050-01-01.
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Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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Zero humans will set foot on Mars before 2100 ( 34% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dvolk on 2014-12-17; known on 2100-01-01.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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Correcting for education, IQ, income, religion, race, age, and some measure of health, rural people are more likely than urban people to commit the naturalistic fallacy. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Leo on 2014-02-09; known on 2024-02-09.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.
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Jeff Bezos will use his influence as owner of the Washington Post to run for Senate by 2020 ( 11% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by workbean on 2013-08-06; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.
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Astronomers will detect a planet where alcohol is thought to rain from the sky. ( 36% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-07-12; known on 2023-01-01.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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P=ZPP proven by 2045 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-06-07; known on 2045-01-01.
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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Ted Nelson, inventor of hypertext: Shinichi Mochizuki is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-21; known on 2040-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Infinitely many primes with gap <= 16, proven by 2050 ( 57% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-20; known on 2050-01-16.
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Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.
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Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01.
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Google Chrome browser will survive 5 years ( 93% confidence; 27 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-03; known on 2018-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2018-04-02.
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Bitcoin was created by a group of programmers who called themselves “Satoshi Nakomoto” and were not employed by a state or a corporation for the express purpose of making Bitcoin ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-05-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
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Germany to cancel phase-out of nuclear power by 2022. ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2022-02-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-12.