Upcoming Predictions
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Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Rate of violent crime in Pakistan will start dropping around 2020, correlated with lead exposure 20 years earlier ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2015-05-24; known on 2030-12-31.
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Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.
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At least one war breaks out between countries due to (perceived) inaction / exacerbation of climate change before 2030 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2030-12-31.
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At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.
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Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.
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A large quantum computer capable of breaking 163-bit Elliptic Curve Cryptography WON'T be built before 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by niconiconi on 2021-02-26; known on 2031-01-01.
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Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.
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In 2030, global greenhouse gas emissions have been at most 50% of those in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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China sequences 100 million people's genomes between 2026 and 2030 ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. Zhongguo 2,Bharat 3,Rossiya 4,Brasil 5 This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bicycling mortality rate in US will be above 0.12 in 2030 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by btrettel on 2015-08-24; known on 2031-01-01.
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If all EA community building Slack Workspaces are replaced with Mattermost instances, user participation in those spaces will drop by more than 5% ( 60% confidence )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Acemoglu wins a Nobel Prize by 2030 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-02-06; known on 2031-01-01.
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Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, known that there is no odd perfect number less than 10^2500 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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LSD to no longer be a Schedule I drug by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Solar Energy to reach 25% of total world energy generation by 2030 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kakapo will go extinct by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Kea (Nestor Notabilis) to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bonobos to go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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Gorillas will go extinct in the wild by 2030 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Alzheimer's to be a curable illness by 2030 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Bisphenol A to be classified as a IARC Group 2A/2B carcinogen by 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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“China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places” – Alex Lightman ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.
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Harvard to make tuition free for all undergraduates (at least once) by 2030 ( 25% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Miami population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 30% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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San Francisco population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 60% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Seattle population to be higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minneapolis population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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Trump to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 ( 50% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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Minnesota to break the longest Democrat-voting streak by 2030 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-03; known on 2031-01-01.
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Mass casaulties (>3000) from bioterrorism by 2030 ( 51% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-30; known on 2031-01-01.
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reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030 ( 51% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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Global warming: warming of 2 C in under 15 years. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-12-04; known on 2031-01-01.
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There will be more kakapo in 2030 than in 2020 ( 80% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2031-01-01.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2030 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-19; known on 2031-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.