Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 59% | 67% | 73% | 88% | 98% | |
Sample Size | 69 | 86 | 89 | 90 | 183 | 80 | 597 |
Displaying all predictions made by Anubhav. Filter by:
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By Jan 1, 2013, there will be a way to directly input your estimated probability distribution across a range of different possible quantities when making a prediction on PB. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be seven or more movies from 2012 on imdb's top 250. http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Porejide on 2013-01-02.
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On Jan 1, 2013, there will be 3 or fewer movies from 2011 on imdb's top 250. (down from current 6) http://www.imdb.com/chart/top ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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MoR: ch 78 will mention Amanda Knox ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-03-20.
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Steve Jobs’s will shall donate >=50% of his wealth to charity ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate 0-10% of his wealth to charity ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Steve Jobs's will shall donate >=99% of his wealth to charity. ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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S1 marks are more strongly correlated with C1 attendance than with S1 attendance. ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.
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C1 marks are more strongly correlated with S1 attendance than C1 attendance. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.
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Correlation between C1 attendance and marks will be less than 0.7 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.
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Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ('今日は、Windowsの表語を日本語に変わります'?) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-01.
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Stranger will claim to live in London. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-31; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-31.
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It turns out that Kapil Sibal didn't actually suggest prescreening UGC using human moderators. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-05; known on 2012-01-01.
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Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger is female. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stanger will dc. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Stranger will dc. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Correlation between C1 marks and S1 marks will be > 0.7 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-29; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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Donald Knuth will die before finishing TAOCP. ( 86% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-29; known on 2025-12-29.
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Person I'm chatting with is a girl. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28.
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Person I'm chatting with is an engineer/engineering student from India. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.
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Person I'm chatting with is a girl. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-28; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-28.
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Pauleen turns out to be shorter than me. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-27; known on 2011-12-27; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Retain the 1:45 slot for Mindspark. Or get a slot after 12:30. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-26; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.
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Nivedit won't sign up for any Stanford courses in January or February, or, if he does, will drop all of them within 5 weeks. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-25; known on 2012-03-31; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-03-31.
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The correlation between S1 marks and attendence will be > 0.6 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-24; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-24.
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Will try the binary filehandling program out today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-23; known on 2011-12-24; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-23.
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I will edit my keyboard layout and build it today. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will have completed my Electronics report by the end of this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-26; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-25.
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I will have changed Chrome's language to Japanese by the end of this week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-26; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Will clear third round of Code Junkie. ( 0% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Will clear second round of Code Junkie. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-29; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Will clear first round of Code Junkie. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-28; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-27.
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Call was from the Mindspark guys. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will try out the binary file program today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will do part of the paperwork for the 19th CS practical today. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will add at least 40 cards to my Maths/Stats/Electronics decks today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-23; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Rashi will score over 90% on her boards. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-06-04.
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Rashi will score over 80% on her boards. ( 100% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-06-04.
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Akshay's file produces no errors on the first run. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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Akshay finds his lab manual in his bag. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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An alternative to the US-based Domain Name System will be created and it will be used more widely than the US-based system before 2015. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2015-01-01.
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SOPA will become US law and either Youtube or Megaupload will be shutdown. ( 24% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-06-25.
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I will complete at least two SQL practicals tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-22.
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I will try out the binary file program today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-21; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-21.
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SOPA will pass through congress, and then it will not be vetoed. ( 49% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2011-12-21; known on 2012-10-16; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-07-26.
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Steve Ballmer will be CEO of Microsoft at the end of 2012 ( 78% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by faws on 2011-12-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by faws on 2013-01-01.
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Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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I will have share up and running today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will have LWT up and running today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will study Electronics for at least an hour today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will study actuarial science for at least two hours today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-16; known on 2011-12-17; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-16.
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I will enjoy Sherlock Holmes tonight. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-15; known on 2011-12-16; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-15.
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The considerable increase in this sites visitors will inspire some activity in promoting the product. I predict a prediction book facebook page by Dec 31st 2011 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by leejhancox on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-31; judged unknown by leejhancox on 2011-12-14.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.
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Tomorrow is results day. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-15.
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I will add at least 20 cards to my M1 deck today. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-14; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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A law that creates some form of Internet blacklist which requires search engines or ISPs to block specific sites will be passed in the USA before 2014 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by saturn on 2011-12-13; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by saturn on 2014-01-04.
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I will study electronics for at least an hour tomorrow. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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I will study actuarial science for at least 2 hours tomorrow. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-15; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-14.
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I will make an Anki deck for M1 and add at least 20 cards to it today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-13; known on 2011-12-14; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least 2 CS practicals tomorrow. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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I will complete the paperwork for at least one CS practical tomorrow. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2011-12-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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Before 2013, Google will stop developing Chrome OS, or announce a Chromebook running Android, or announce a netbook/ultrabook-shaped successor running Android ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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PredictionBook's email notification system will be fixed by the end of this year. ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-12; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-02-29.
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Aakash will complete MW3 by midnight. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-11; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.
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I will attend lectures tomorrow. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-12.
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I will update my Ubuntu install this week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-19; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-13.
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Tonight, I will find a raw txt — I mean, a completely legal copy of the book that has been recommended to me. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2011-12-12; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-11.
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I will have completed the first 19 CS-2 practicals by the end of this year. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-11; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-26.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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I will have completed the information collection exercise by Monday. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-10; known on 2011-12-12; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-10.
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I will reach 1000 karma on LW (http://lesswrong.com/user/RobertLumley) by June 2nd, the anniversary of my first post on LW. ( 67% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-08; known on 2012-06-02; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-04-06.
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gwern.net will be up and accessible with content in 2020. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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The virus warning turns out to be false. ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-07; known on 2011-12-07.
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I will have rewatched the Evangelion movies by the end of this year. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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I will start studying for the entry exam today. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-06; known on 2011-12-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-06.
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lukeprog will make >2 predictions on PB during 2012. ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-04.
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I will add cards to more than one anki deck today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-12-04; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.
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Jimmy Wales and/or the WMF and/or any of its employees will be awarded the Nobel Peace Prize within 34 years. ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2045-12-04.
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The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
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I will have finished all (or all but the last two) Computer Science practicals by the end of this year. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-29.
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I will add cards to more than one Anki deck today. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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I will add cards to an Anki deck today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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I will start studying for the actuarial entrance exam this week. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.
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I will have done the infomation collection exercise for Electronics by the end of this week. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2011-12-04.
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I will do the paperwork for the first 5 DBMS exercises today. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-30; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-30.
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Carrie Fisher will die before Harrison Ford. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-28; known on 2040-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-28.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be deciphered and found to be written in a minority language or an Italian dialect still spoken in Italy today. ( 13% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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My guinea pig will learn to move in a circle on command in 2 months time. ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-30; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2017 ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2017-01-13.
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Notch (or Mojang) announces open source MineCraft client has been released by 2013. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2013-01-03.
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There will be a new (canon) Haruhi anime by 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.