Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-09.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Stacey Abrams ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-08.
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JCI finishes down between .5 and 1.5% ( 60% confidence )
Created by KwameA on 2020-09-08; known on 2020-09-08; judged right by KwameA on 2020-09-08.
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Pete Buttigieg will win the Democratic Nomination ( 14% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-09-06.
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Jaylen Samuels makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-05.
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Us declares war on Iran by september 2020 ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tschescheier on 2018-05-12; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-05.
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After the Democratic nominee is chosen, I will still assign between 35% and 45% to the chance of Trump winning the general election (currently 40%). ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-01-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-09-04.
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Tuzar Skipper makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-04.
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Literature – Part three of the Kingkiller Chronicle trilogy is not going to be released in August 2020. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by NickN on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-04.
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Will California pay out any part of Trump's federal unemployment benefits in August? ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-13; known on 2020-09-06; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-03.
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at least one of my housemates will catch covid-19 in the next two weeks ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.
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I have covid-19 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-19; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-09-03.
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I will send my newsletter on time ( 95% confidence )
Created by grin on 2020-09-02; known on 2020-09-02; judged right by grin on 2020-09-03.
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The government of Quebec will start using an open source operating system (instead of Windows) during the mandate of the next government. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-05; known on 2020-09-02; judged wrong by Mati on 2020-09-03.
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Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
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[The S&P 500 will experience a 50% decline from it's high in ] August. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Stephen on 2020-08-11; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by Stephen on 2020-09-01.
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Crude oil above $45 when August ends ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-07-27; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, US – Daily deaths exceed 2000 for any day in August 2020. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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COVID, UK – Daily deaths exceed 300 for any day in August 2020. ( 15% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-07-25; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Conditioned on me playing at least 2000 hands, I will be a losing poker player by the end of August ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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Before the end of August, I will have bought contracts in a prediction market ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will not have published more than 2 new blog posts by the end of August ( 69% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will not be able to do a single chin-up starting from the bottom by th end of August ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will be able to do at least 1 set of 3 push-ups (horizontally on the floor) by the end of August ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will have finished >= half the content for the A. test by the end of August ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I won't have finished (being reasonably satisfied with melodies / chords) transcription of Moondog piece by the end of the month ( 40% confidence )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I won't have finished all pieces from Part A of the sight singing program until the end of August ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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I will have made a push-up with reasonable (not necessarily perfect) form on the floor until the end of August ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by fandangos on 2020-08-03; known on 2020-08-31; judged right by fandangos on 2020-09-01.
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Tech – Fortnite is returned to the Google Play Store by end of August 2020. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-16; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Tech – A version update, such that the titlebar version ceases to be 1.7.12.0, is released for MSFS before end of the 30th of August. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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Tech – A fix or workaround for MSFS SimConnect performance issues is available by end of August 2020. ( 28% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-08-23; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-09-01.
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I will weigh between 165-175 pounds by end of August 2020 ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by avi on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-08-31; judged wrong by avi on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 0 ( 60% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 1 to 10 ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 0 ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 1 to 10 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 1 to 10 ( 58% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 0 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-08-31.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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Mark Zuckerberg will win the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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Elizabeth Warren will win the 2020 Democratic presidential nomination ( 8% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27; known on 2020-10-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Bernie Sanders ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Hilary Clinton ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Cory Booker ( 7% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[The Democratic presidential nominee for 2020 will be] Kamala Harris ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2020-09-16; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.