Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 80% | 33% | 50% | 75% | 80% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 21 |
Displaying all predictions made by Nikolas. Filter by:
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I will win this LoL match ( 51% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-08-23; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-23.
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I'll keep translating a post from the Sequences a day for a week ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-16; known on 2015-08-24; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-20.
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I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.
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I will keep making a prediction a day until Aug 31 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-19.
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I will visit the top of the Rockefeller Center tonight ( 75% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-31; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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The rationality workshop planned for September will work out. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-09-14.
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I will translate at least one blog post during the flight. (Given that taking out my computer during the flight won't be a hassle) ( 60% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-07-30.
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I will finish at least one textbook in the next two weeks ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-08-14; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.
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I will follow up with my plans for the day (Meeting, coursera and 5-min exercises) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-27; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-07-28.
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I'll get accepted to volunteer at EA global Oxford ( 10% confidence )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-27.
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I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.
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Greece will cease using the Euro as its currency. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2015-07-12; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by quanticle on 2015-07-31.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.