Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 |
Displaying all predictions made by RyanCarey. Filter by:
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80,000 Hours' blog will have a hackernews comment with >10% of the post's net upvotes that is critical of the volume of popups on the 80,000 Hours site. ( 60% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RyanCarey on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-06-09; judged unknown by RyanCarey on 2016-06-09.
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Alastair Roche will return to Melbourne from his San Francisco trip convinced to stay there. Convinced means on asking 'you should probably go to live in San Francisco permanently soon', he says 'yes', where the only alternative is 'no' and 'maybe' is not ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RyanCarey on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-11; judged wrong by dusk on 2015-04-05.