Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2014. ( 52% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
I will make at least one prediction on PredictionBook in 2013 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
US government will indicts MtGox or its officers on criminal charges. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by kiba on 2013-05-15; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
The Euro won't be the official currency in Greece at the end of 2013. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-06; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Tom Claburn, Info Week: Google Graduates to ISP in 2013 ( 35% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Eric Schmidt will get nominated for a position in the Obama administration in the year 2013 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-01-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“Any country currently using the Euro to announce their intention to drop it midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
“The current lull in the increase of the speed at which CPUs perform sequential operations comes to an end, yielding a consumer CPU that performs sequential integer arithmetic operations 4x as quickly as a modern 3GHz Xeon” —dfranke ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
Bashar al-Assad will still be holding power in Syria on December 31, 2013. ( 36% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-01-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
-
I will achieve all 7 of my New Year's resolutions before 2014. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will complete every single exercise in Harry Gensler's Introduction to Logic: Second Edition with an error rate of 20% or less before 2014. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will take the Spanish Language CLEP exam and will achieve a score of 55 or higher before 2014. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
I will perform 1 set of 25 standard pull-ups and 1 set of 250 bodyweight squats on the same day before 2014. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-02; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
My company will double its number of clients before 2014. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-31.
-
Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
New federal gun control laws will be passed in 2013 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The next german ruling coalition will be a grand coalition between CDU and SPD ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
-
Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by phreeza on 2013-09-23; known on 2013-10-23; judged right by phreeza on 2013-12-31.
-
Cyprus will leave the Euro in 2013 ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2013-03-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-12-31.
-
“A cap and trade system for emissions trading to be established before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Many types of cancer will be treated effectively with biofeedback coupled with imaging techniques, such as fMRI.” ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
-
Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
-
Cyprus will leave the EU before 2014 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-20; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
-
“Either the Iranian regime is overthrown by popular revolution, or there is an overt airstrike against Iran by either the US or Israel, or Israel is attacked by an Iranian nuclear weapon” -dfranke ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“Syria to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“Iran to be removed from US State Dept list of State Sponsors of Terrorism on/before 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
“China to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
-
The BGI Cognitive Genomics study of general intelligence will find at least one hit at genome-wide significance in 2013. ( 67% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by CarlShulman on 2013-04-29; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2013-12-31.
-
The Obamacare “exchanges will be working at the end of November”. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-10-30; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
-
Liberal/National Coalition to win Australian Federal Election 2013. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2013-11-30; judged right by najdorf on 2013-12-30.
-
SR: the Maryland employee plea-bargained & cooperated with the government ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-05; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-30.
-
I will go to jail ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-09-30; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Grognor on 2013-12-30.
-
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
-
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
-
Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
-
Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
-
The Doctor (from Doctor Who) will exceed the usual regeneration limit via genetic looms, like the Other is rumored to have done. ( 43% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-19; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2013-12-26.
-
Chicago-area will not have a white (1 inch of snow or greater) Christmas. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-01; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by adbge on 2013-12-26.
-
DE: Steinbrueck will be the next Chancellor of Germany ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dhoe on 2013-01-14; known on 2013-10-01; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
-
NL: Housing price will have fallen > 8% year on year in Dec '13 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2012-11-18; known on 2013-12-25; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-25.
-
First-year sales of Rowling's new book will be less than 40% of the first-year sales of Deathly Hallows (44 million according to Wikipedia.) ( 77% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-29; known on 2013-12-20; judged right by Grognor on 2013-12-24.
-
Buffalo Bills beat the Miami Dolphins yesterday. ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-23.
-
I will write a working basic CLJS todo application before this Sunday 6am Pacific ( 98% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-21; known on 2013-12-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-22.