GJP: #1041 Will Italy's Silvio Berlusconi resign, lose re-election/confidence vote, OR otherwise vacate office before 1 January 2012?
Created by gwern on 2011-11-08; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-03.
- gwern estimated 30% on 2011-11-08
- gwern estimated 80% on 2011-11-09
- gwern made the prediction on 2011-12-03
- gwern judged this prediction right on 2011-12-03.
- gwern said “forgot to close this one” on 2011-12-03
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