Recently Transpired & Awaiting Judgement
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80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2023-08-18; known 14 days ago.
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I get in to med school ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by squackledee on 2023-02-16; known 16 days ago.
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Knowledge organisation (as an extension/generalisation of services such as FullContact, Evernote) will become an important service in the next 5 years ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by raehik on 2018-10-13; known 18 days ago.
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Still no first kiss before my 30th birthday. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
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I will be in a romantic relationship with a woman whom I love and who loves me at some point between now and my 30th birthday. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-04-10; known 21 days ago.
Recently Predicted
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UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 ( 13% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2026-07-01.
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AI winter in 2024 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 20 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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WW3 by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 21 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2025-02-15.
Recently Judged
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PredictionBook.com will be up and running 10 years from today – 5/31/2023 – with this individual prediction still accessible. ( 71% confidence; 29 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FestiveBleak on 2013-05-31; known on 2023-05-31; judged right by holycow81 7 days ago.
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26 USC 174 will be either retroactively postponed or rewritten to allow for at least 50% current deduction of software expenses for FY22 by October 18, 2023 ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-07; known 13 days ago; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf 10 days ago.
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Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-05-25; known on 2023-09-28; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-29.
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Fin du pass sanitaire/vaccinal le 31 juillet 2022 pour les bars et restaurants en France métropolitaine ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by 0uGiL on 2022-01-23; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by 0uGiL on 2023-09-09.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2023-12-31 ( 6% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-09-03.
Recent Responses
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 13% on UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 35% on Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 TBD on 2026-07-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 8% on WW3 by 2025 TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on AI winter in 2024 TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 62% on By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used TBD on 2030-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Twitter/Elon keep getting worse and worse” re: By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 1% on Netanyahu steps down as prime minister any time between now and 2024 TBD on 2024-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum said “Iran/Israel, Russia/Ukraine, China/Taiwan, NK/SK, Azerbaijan/Armenia, etc. ” re: WW3 by 2025
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 6% on WW3 by 2025 TBD on 2025-01-01
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 98% on PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. TBD on 2024-01-10
- Tapetum-Lucidum estimated 2% on Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 TBD on 2024-01-16
- Milani estimated 62% on Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. TBD on 2025-02-15
- Milani estimated 79% on Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 TBD on 2024-01-16
- Milani estimated 68% on Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 TBD on 2024-01-16
- Milani said “Yes, I know Elon is not a natural-born citizen. This is in spite of that.” re: Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024
- Milani estimated 68% on Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 TBD on 2024-01-16
- jacobgreenleaf said “Real GDP third print 2.1% annualized” re: Q2 real GDP growth < 0 (3rd print)
- Magda estimated 98% on Fewer people globally will die of deseases TBD on 2023-09-28 , so judge them!
- avi estimated 100% on PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. TBD on 2024-01-10
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 95% on Q3 2023 recession by NBER TBD on 2025-04-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 80% on Q2 2023 recession by NBER TBD on 2024-12-31
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 99% on 27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 TBD on 2025-01-01
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 95% on Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration TBD on 2024-03-12
- atharva117 estimated 80% on BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections TBD on 2024-06-16
- atharva117 estimated 30% on Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 TBD on 2024-06-16
- jacobgreenleaf estimated 75% on SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 TBD on 2060-01-01
- dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id estimated 70% on 01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma TBD 27 days ago , so judge them!