Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 50% | 100% | 75% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 0 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by olivia. Filter by:
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Personal – I identify as nonbinary or a woman by the end of June 2018. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-25; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Total per person unsubsidised cost on accelerator project will not be below €100 for rent food energy and internet. ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Dragon or Dragon-derived vehicle to the surface of Mars in the 2018 launch window. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by olivia on 2016-05-26; known on 2018-05-10; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2018-05-16.
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Computer Science to remain Harvard's most popular undergraduate major in 2020 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2021-01-01.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2016 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-01-01.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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The Schengen Agreement will be terminated within 5 years. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by danpop on 2015-08-29; known on 2018-08-29; judged wrong by sdr on 2018-08-29.
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By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.
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Alex will learn how to ride a bike at Burning Man. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-24.
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The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.
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We will be able to identify the genome-wide significant SNPs (collectively) responsible for 10% of the heritability in adult IQ by 2020 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-03.
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We will be able to identify the genes (collectively) responsible for 10% of the variance in ADHD by 2020 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Worm final chapters and epilogues will reveal that 'Khepri' is alive. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by nohat on 2013-10-29; known on 2013-11-20; judged right by nohat on 2013-11-19.
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Within five years, Gwern will be hired as a “statistician columnist” by a mainstream blog; “mainstream blog” is defined as a blog with no less than 1/6th of the annual traffic theverge.com currently gets. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by halfwit on 2013-07-13; known on 2018-07-14; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-08-27.
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Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.