PredictionBook transitioning to read-only mode at the end of 2023 ( read more ).

A Republican or Democratic candidate who publicly espouses Scientology will trade >=5% at any point on the Intrade market for his party's Presidential candidate nomination.

Created by gwern on 2012-03-01; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-03-01.

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