Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 67% | 83% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 19 | 25 | 27 | 40 | 82 | 84 | 277 |
Displaying all predictions made by Pablo. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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I will win a Nobel Prize in literature in 40 years. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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The next non-Democrat to win the White House will also be a non-Republican. ( 15% confidence; 17 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Riemann hypothesis proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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Personal, Productivity – I get through “Economic Implications Of Software Minds” by deadline. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-19; known on 2020-01-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-01-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] any other candidate ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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Mauricio Macri will be re-elected president of Argentina. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019_Argentine_general_election ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2019-07-25; known on 2019-11-25; judged wrong by Pablo on 2019-10-29.
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Rafael Nadal will win Wimbledon 2019. ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-15.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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SPY return positive in year 2019 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Fed cut rate at least 25bps in July ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-07-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-08-11.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for October 2019 to exceed 50% ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-12-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for November 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-07.
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[Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor to be released, conditional on Canadian government] still holding Meng Wanzhou ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-06-01.
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US to conduct nuclear weapons test by 2019-08-30 ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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House Judiciary Committee votes to hold William Barr in contempt of congress ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-08; known on 2019-05-09; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-08.
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The Brexit Party to win more than 10 seats in a 2019 general election ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.
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A redacted form of the Mueller report is released by Friday ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-15; known on 2019-04-20; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Melisandre ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for April 2019 to exceed 50% ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.
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[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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Indonesia to be a member of OPEC at August 2019 EOM ( 4% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to be held as scheduled on April 17, 2019 ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-17.
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[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[Politics] Cristina Fernández de Kirchner to officially run for president of Argentina in 2019 ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-28.
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BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
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The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.
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[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.
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$AMZN 2019 end of year price >= $2100 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Bryce Harper will sign a contract with minimum length of 10 years. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-20; known on 2019-02-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.
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Bitcoin will end 2018 above $50,000 USD ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by daedalus_21 on 2018-02-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Francis is still Pope on 1/1/19 ( 87% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Trump will be President on 12/31/18 ( 85% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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President Trump will be impeached by 12/31/18 ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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ADN testing will confirm that the body found last Tuesday in Chubut, Argentina is Santiago Maldonado's. ( 68% confidence )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-22.
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Esteban Bullrich's Cambiemos will obtain more votes than Cristina Kirchner's Union Ciudadana in the Argentine elections this Sunday, reverting the previous result in the PASO elections. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-10-19; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Pablo on 2017-10-24.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.
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80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.
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North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-30.
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In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 84% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05.
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#personal If I try psychotherapy in the next 1 months, I will think it's been time and money and other resources well pent ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-15; known on 2017-08-16.
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Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.
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North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.
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North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.
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Donald Trump will serve his first term unimpeached. ( 72% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by gurgus on 2020-01-15.
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Created by Pablo on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-08-15; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-15.
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The company I am interning at will hire Yaroslav, who is another intern. He seems hardworking. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-08-08; known on 2017-09-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-10-02.
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Bitcoin reaches $5000/BTC at some point on Coinbase before 2020 ( 64% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Afforess on 2017-08-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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North Korea is invaded by the end of 2017 ( 7% confidence; 24 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-07-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-06-07.
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Jeff Sessions will still be Attorney General on September 1st. ( 74% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-07-28; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by sjy on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – At least one of the Supreme Court justices appointed on the 21st of July 2017 is arrested between then and the start of September 2017. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Politics, US – Trump issues a pardon for a family member, or a current or previous employee of the US Executive Branch or his campaign, before the start of September 2017. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-24; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Business, UK – Boots reduces price on a version of Levonelle (including generic or non-branded) to below £20 before the 1st of September 2017. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-21; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-09-01.
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Trump approval rating < 37% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-10-02.
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Trump approval rating > 39% at end of September 2017 (according to 538) ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-07-18; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-10-01.