Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Wagerable is a word ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-17; known on 2008-09-17; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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IngDirect will be back up by tomorrow ( 68% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-17; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-17.
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I won't have to read the manual to set up the monitor ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-16.
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Glenn's fixes will have worked ( 87% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-16; known on 2008-09-16; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-16.
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same HIV = VZV ( 25% confidence )
Created by Frank on 2008-07-24; known on 2008-08-16; judged wrong by Frank on 2008-09-15.
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The world will not end when the first LHC beam is injected on 10th September ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-10; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-11.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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The world will not end when the LHC first collides 2 beams ( 99% confidence; 13 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2009-12-28; judged right by rwallace on 2009-12-28.
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Adam will receive the file I just sent through my junior shell-fu ( 55% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Matt on 2008-09-09.
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This will not email me if i say yes then say no ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-09; known on 2008-09-09; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-09.
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I will be able to reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 45% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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Matt will get me on to redmine today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-09-01; known on 2008-03-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-09-08.
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This will email me within 10 minutes ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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Emailing me will /not/ reproduce the nillify blank bug ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-08; known on 2008-09-08; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-08.
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Unchecked response won't want to send me an email ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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This prediction will post ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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Unchecked won't want to send me an email ( 90% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-06; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-06.
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I won't be able to dupe this time ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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I won't be able to double post this prediction ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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Saying no now, and yes later to an email will work ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in EST (AU) ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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Tomorrow morning for this prediction will be in UTC ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-05; known on 2008-09-06; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-05.
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The circles drawn by the google scatter plot are not quite accurate. the 48% points are above the 50 line ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-05; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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There will be no traffic mishaps on the journey home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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There will be no traffic mishaps on the Westgate between 9:30 and 10am tomorrow morning ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-05.
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After spending an hour on the phone to the UK I will be able to access my account ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Adam on 2008-09-04.
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This will redirect me back to recent instead of the old table view ( 95% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-09-04; known on 2008-09-04; judged right by Glenn on 2008-09-04.
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I will get an email telling me this prediction can be judged ( 85% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-08-31; known on 2008-08-31; judged right by Lina on 2008-08-31.
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GD's clan does not include Mercedes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Lina on 2008-07-26; known on 2008-08-09; judged right by Lina on 2008-08-28.
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Generation Kill won't have quite the same depth of story as The Wire ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam on 2008-07-15; known on 2008-08-30; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-27.
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moko will behave partcularly well tonight ( 65% confidence )
Created by Miyo on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-08-27; judged right by Andy on 2008-08-27.
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a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-08-26.
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a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-08-26.
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a prediction with a confidence of 0 will break pbook and i'll have to fix it manually ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-14; known on 2008-08-14; judged wrong by Glenn on 2008-08-26.
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Coffee machine drain hole is 9mm wide ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam on 2008-08-26; known on 2008-08-26; judged right by Adam on 2008-08-26.
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Within 2 days I will wish I had put the certainty on my last prediction at a higher percentage ( 92% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Andy on 2008-07-22; known on 2008-07-24; judged right by Andy on 2008-08-26.
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I will get an email asking me to judge this prediction within 5 minutes ( 90% confidence )
Created by Matt on 2008-08-22; known on 2008-08-22; judged wrong on 2008-08-22.
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this will be the most popular prediction EVER ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Glenn on 2008-08-02; known on 3008-08-02; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-05-17.
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there will be stupid kneejerk legislation in response to the child dying on his bmx at the skatepark ( 70% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-18; known on 2008-07-13; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
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the 2010 bug will strike again before it is fixed ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2018-07-16; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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typing 100 years from now as a result date will no longer crash the server ( 85% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-07-20; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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interpreting 2010 as a 8:10pm (as a bug) will not be fixed for ages ( 100% confidence )
Created by Glenn on 2008-07-16; known on 2008-08-06; judged right on 2008-08-18.
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modelling and design of bed base will take 15hrs ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Kenji on 2008-07-08; known on 2008-07-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
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Deadline emails will fail from cron due to sparse environment variables. ( 9% confidence )
Created by jarpy on 2008-08-18; known on 2008-08-18; judged wrong on 2008-08-18.
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The rake task to send deadlines will work. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jarpy on 2008-08-18; known on 2008-08-18; judged right on 2008-08-18.