Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 52% | 60% | 72% | 78% | 93% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 126 | 209 | 180 | 240 | 430 | 346 | 1531 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tapetum-Lucidum. Filter by:
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China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-04; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Kentucky winner to be] Joe Biden ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: New York winner to be] Joe Biden ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-04-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-24.
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[US Democratic primary: Georgia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US Democratic primary: Florida winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-18.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-12; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Pablo on 2020-02-05.
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SoftBank stock suffers 50% correction from its all-time-high by end of 2020 ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-12-31.
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The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, August 31 2019. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-08-31; known on 2019-09-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-09-03.
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The Hong Kong protests will have a turnout exceeding 1 million people on Saturday, September 1 2019. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-08-31; known on 2019-09-02.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the third Democratic primary debate ( 80% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-09-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-09-15.
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There will be a crocs movie before 2040. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2040-01-01.
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The world gross product of 2099 will not be less than the world gross product of 2020. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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I am not going to die as a consequence of anthropogenic climate change. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-08-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2025-12-31.
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Climate change news related psychological disorders (including stress and anxiety induced by news) spawns a new branch of psychiatry ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-23; known on 2020-08-16; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2020-08-17.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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The Collatz Conjecture will not be proven/disproven this year ( 99% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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[Politics] Martial law to be declared in at least part of Hong Kong by October 2019 EOM ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-04.
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The heat death of the universe ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by hserl on 2019-07-28; known on 2100-07-16.
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[Fighting] Dana White to be president of the UFC as of 2020-07-23 ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2020-07-24; judged right by Cato on 2020-07-27.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] “no-deal Brexit” to have happened ( 18% confidence; 20 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-11-05.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] arrested within five (5) years ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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[Alan Dershowitz (Alan Morton Dershowitz) (born September 1, 1938) gets ] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-22; known on 2024-07-22.
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The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.
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I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.
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[Les Wexner (Leslie H. Wexner) (born September 8, 1937) gets] accused of sexual harassment or sexual assault by at least one woman within five (5) years ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-07-19; known on 2024-07-19.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Person to walk on the moon by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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Barnes & Noble still exists and operates at least 10 book stores ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Leo on 2019-07-05; known on 2022-07-05; judged right by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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If Joe Biden wins the 2020 democratic bid for president then Donald Trump will win the 2020 election. ( 50% confidence; 29 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jprettner on 2019-06-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Politics] By 2019-12-14, Hong Kong government to pass law that would allow extradition to mainland PRC ( 35% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-12-14; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.
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Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.
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Trump wins a second term in office ( 48% confidence; 29 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by avi on 2020-11-07.
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By election day 2020, Donald Trump's tax returns are published ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-05; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before Congress before November 2020 ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-02; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2021-06-11.
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No new American bootprints on the moon by the end of Calendar Year 2024. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01; known on 2025-01-01.
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[US politics] House of Representatives to vote on Trump impeachment articles before 2020-05-09 ( 59% confidence; 20 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-05-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-19.
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Chinese government to limit or tax exports of rare earths to the US by 2019-08-30 ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-08-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-09-01.
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GPT-2 1.5B or a 3rd-party model trained with at least 40GB of text will be released before 2020 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-09-15.
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Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.
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Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-24; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-05-24.
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OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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IRS turns Trump's tax returns over to Congress ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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At least one year of Trump's tax documents are published by the New York Times between now and the 2020 election ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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N is sent back to Russia ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-22; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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The person who tried to interfere with Flynn's testimony was Derek Harvey ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-17.
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[Politics] US government to announce ban on Chinese messaging, ecommerce, or web service such as WeChat, JD, Alibaba, Made-in-China, or Baidu as part of trade dispute—including conditional or postponed bans ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-16; known on 2020-05-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-18.
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[The 2020 Democratic presidential nominee will be] Andrew Yang ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-07-16; judged wrong by amadeu on 2020-04-13.
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US military to execute air strike or missile strike on Iranian territory or naval assets by May 2020 EOM ( 27% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-05.
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The predictionbook user 'Cato' will NOT be active here (less than 1 wage/week) by Aug 10th, 2019 (3 months later). ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by minerjamon on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-08-12.
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House Judiciary Committee votes to hold William Barr in contempt of congress ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-08; known on 2019-05-09; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-08.
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Stephanie Winston Wolkoff indicted before 2024 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-07; known on 2024-01-01.
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Erik Prince runs for Senate in 2020 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be obtained by the House or Senate ( 50% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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[US politics: Within the next year, Donald Trump's tax returns] to be released to the public ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2020-05-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-05-06.
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Post done by end of the evening ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-05.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-24.
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[intentional duplicate] The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-16; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-16.
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The bot makes it to the new location by morning ( 55% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-15.
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A redacted form of the Mueller report is released by Friday ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-15; known on 2019-04-20; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
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Joe Rogan to announce departure from UFC commentary by 2019 EOY ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.
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Beto O'Rourke to win the 2020 Presidential election ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-12-11.
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Kushner to remain in the White House for the entire duration of Trump's presidency ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2025-01-20.
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A Chinese military vessel docks at Thitu by 2024 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2024-01-01.
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At least one more indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Earthquake April 11th… A dream from 20 years ago was recently reconfirmed to my Uncle that there will be a catastrophic earthquake in Portland Oregon area. Personally I don't buy it. He is so certain he left town. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by liveitpros on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-04-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12.
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A whistleblower claims that the US-Mexico border crossing statistics under the Trump administration are not accurate ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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the earth will spin for the next 24 hours ( 100% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rbutorac on 2019-04-09; known on 2019-04-10; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-04-10.
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Robert Mueller to testify publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 66% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-09-04.
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At least one indictment is made as part of a case referred by Mueller, before 2020 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-12.
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Rick Perry testifies publicly before the Senate Armed Services committee before 2020 ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Rex Tillerson testifies publicly before Congress before 2020 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-17.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-01.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-02.
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US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.
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A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-19.
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Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-28; known on 2019-03-29; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-30.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-04-01.