Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 65% | 68% | 80% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 11 | 31 | 25 | 30 | 56 | 8 | 161 |
Displaying all predictions made by Laurent Bossavit. Filter by:
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France to experience a Covid “second wave” in 2020 (any count of daily deaths > 800 by end of calendar year) ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-04-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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More than 300,000 people will die from corona in the US ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-10-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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At least 814 docking stations of public bike sharing service Velib to be installed in Paris by June 1, 2018. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-03-11; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-06-06.
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Feature phones are going to vanish out of the developed world and over the course of five years they'll vanish out of the developing world. — Marc Andreessen in http://news.cnet.com/8301-1023_3-57345138-93/marc-andreessen-predictions-for-2012-and-beyond/ ( 40% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20.
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Macron will complete his term successfully ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-14.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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“ESI” contract to be terminated explicitly before May 20, 2016 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-02-10; known on 2016-05-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2016-04-22.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Social Experiment: By 01-01-2012, the average estimate on this prediction will be greater than or equal to 75%. ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-11-15; known on 9999-01-02.
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Apple to introduce a flatscreen TV product within 2 years. Cf. http://qz.com/104796/heres-all-the-evidence-that-apple-is-making-an-actual-tv-and-the-remote-will-likely-be-your-hand/ ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-07-16; known on 2015-07-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects exists, was collected independently of the 1979 GAO data set, and independently found the same frequencies. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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By 2015, evidence (such as a full-text paper) will emerge indicating that the supposed results of the 1995 Jarzombek study of US Defense software projects were in fact the result of error, distorsion or fraud rather than conclusions from an actual survey ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-04-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2015-08-22.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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By 2025, at least one major world city will have a restaurant featuring 3D printed food. ( 69% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-25; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2015-03-23.
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The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
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Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
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The Less Wrong Karma will be changed before October 20 so that the -5 penalty for replying to -3 comments is removed or adjusted. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-10-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-10-20.
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Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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GJP: #1088 Will Japan commence parliamentary elections before 1 April 2012? ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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GJP: #1083 Will Marine LePen cease to be a candidate for President of France before 10 April 2012? ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-07; known on 2012-04-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-10.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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France's Sarkozy to run for presidency. ( 96% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-02-15.
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USD worth over 3 EUR ( 18% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by kish on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-12-21; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-21.
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“No IPO for Facebook” —Cringely ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“Leprechauns” (http://leanpub.com/leprechauns) will top the $720 in sales suggested by pre-publication declarations of interest (60 interested readers at an average of $12), within two weeks. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-19; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-24.
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Grognor (http://lesswrong.com/user/Grognor) will reach 1000 karma on LessWrong by September 27, 2012, one year after his first comment. ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-09-27; judged right by Grognor on 2012-03-13.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Germany will not leave Euro by end of 2012 ( 92% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by procran on 2011-11-13; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Within 5 years, 80% of the global population will own at least one mobile computing device (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-digital-divide-will-cease-to-exist.html) ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years, “mind reading” (BCI) will have progressed to the point where you can control an external device, e.g. place a call to a contact just by thinking it. (IBM's “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-mind-reading-is-no- ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Within 5 years biometrics will displace passwords (IBM “5 in 5” http://asmarterplanet.com/blog/2011/12/the-next-5-in-5-you-will-never-need-a-password-again.html) ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-20.
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In 5 years parasitic power collection will have become a significant market (IBM “5 in 5” http://ibmresearchnews.blogspot.com/2011/12/ibm-5-in-5-creating-energy-from.html) – for concreteness take “significant” to be $1Bn ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-12-20; known on 2016-12-20; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2018-02-25.
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Lady Gaga will launch her next tour in Omaha, NE. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by saturn on 2012-03-29.
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Larry King's brain will be cryopreserved or plastinated within 2 weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070 ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-04; known on 2070-01-01.
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I will be able to complete 100 good-form push ups in 6 weeks' time following the program at hundredpushups.com. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by roshni on 2011-11-23; known on 2012-01-04; judged wrong by roshni on 2012-03-05.
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The US$ will touch parity with the Euro (1€=1US$) before the end of 2012 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-20; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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Chavez will not be re-elected president of Venezuela on October 07, 2012. ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by alexguerrero on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-10-07; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-08.
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The First Domed City will exist before 2040. This will be the first above-ground structure since The third World War (WWIII). ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2039-12-15.
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By 2050, more tobacco will be utilized in the biofuel industry than in the cigar & cigarette industry. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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Most of the modules in Ruby's “stdlib” will be packaged and referenced as gems in release 2.0. (See http://bit.ly/uIRu4n) ( 80% confidence )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-06-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2013-02-24.
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An official 2.0 release of the Ruby language will be available on or before February 24, 2013. ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-07; known on 2013-02-24; judged right by muflax on 2013-02-24.
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Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Nicolas Sarkozy to be elected President of France in 2012 —Intrade ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-05-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-06.
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An e-reader device incorporating an “electrowetting” display (irrespective of maker) will clear FCC approval, or be available from online stores in US or EU, by the next CES show. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-09-04; known on 2012-01-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-01-10.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 30 Sep 2012” —Intrade ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2012-10-01.
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Google will sell all hardware developing and producing parts of Motorola Mobile before 1. Jan 2012 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2011-08-16; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“Twitter to announce an IPO before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2012” —Intrade ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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A 1MW cold-fusion reactor will NOT be demonstrated in October this year. ( 93% confidence; 18 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-07-28; known on 2011-10-31; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-03.
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Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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Silver spot price will touch $50 or higher by December 31, 2012. ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
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‘Facebook will have an IPO within 2 years: 80% confidence’ —Arthur Breitman ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-09; known on 2013-06-07; judged right by gwern on 2012-02-02.
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“the entire universe and planet Earth will be destroyed forever.” —Haubert/Brown ( 0% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-08; known on 2011-10-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-22.
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2012 is not end of this world! ( 98% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Muammar al-Gaddafi will no longer be the leader of Libya by 31 December 2011 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-03-22; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
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3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
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Apple will release the iPhone 5 and it will be available in white in 2011. ( 51% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
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No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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“Carry-on luggage on US airlines will be reduced to a single handbag that inspectors can search thoroughly, in 2010 or 2011.” —Phil Goetz ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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“I will continue to post on LW at least once a month next year” —magfrump ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2011-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
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“THE world?s slowest concert, which began on September 5, 2001 and which is scheduled to take 639 years, will still be performed at its half-time interval, wich is planned for the year 2319.” ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2319-01-01.
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At least one current member will drop out of the Euro. ( 22% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt Newport on 2010-06-11; known on 2011-12-17; judged wrong by faws on 2011-12-17.
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Barack Obama will be shot by American white-supremist extremists within the next two weeks ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2010-03-14; judged wrong by Kyrisch on 2010-03-08.
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The “LessWrong Singularity article” will be accepted for publication. http://lesswrong.com/lw/1fz/a_less_wrong_singularity_article/ ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Pavitra on 2009-11-25; known on 2010-03-15; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2010-03-17.
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Homo sapiens will be near or fully extinct by 2100. ( 21% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Rain on 2009-11-11; known on 2100-01-01.
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There will be a flood event that kills more than 200 people between 14 October and 14 November 2009. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-11-14; judged wrong by Arenamontanus on 2009-11-17.
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General consensus among mathematicians that 2, 3, 5 and 7 are prime numbers will not change in the next year. ( 99% confidence; 26 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by jasticE on 2010-10-14.
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The sun will not become a nova during this year. ( 99% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2010-10-14; judged right by gwern on 2010-10-14.
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There will be a consensus among physicists that the Large Hadron Collider has provided experimental verification for the existence of the Higgs Boson by the end of October 2011. ( 36% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jack on 2009-10-14; known on 2011-10-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-31.
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Neither Eliezer nor Robin will have more than 10 public predictions recorded before Monday ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Matt on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-18; judged right by Matt on 2009-10-18.
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The sun will rise tomorrow morning ( 88% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by uninverted on 2009-10-14; known on 2009-10-15; judged right by anonym on 2009-10-17.