Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 80% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 14 |
Displaying all predictions made by overtone. Filter by:
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Politics, US – The New York times publishes an article containing both Scott Alexander's legal surname and a reference to SSC before the end of July 2020. ( 25% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-26; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2020-08-01.
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Trump wins 2020 election ( 38% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-11-07.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Elizabeth Warren ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Amy Klobuchar ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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New York City will not be subject to any executive orders restricting movement or gathering on August 1st, 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by panashe on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by panashe on 2020-08-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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< 35M coronavirus deaths ( 86% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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<2M coronavirus deaths. ( 25% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by kjaques on 2020-03-19; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by kjaques on 2020-07-31.
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Andrew Yang runs as a third party candidate ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-06-03; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-11-02.
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Democrats will keep the house and take the senate in 2020 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by SeriousPod on 2018-08-02; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.
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Donald Trump will be elected for a second presidential term ( 52% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2020-11-03; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Zuckerberg in prison ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-05; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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Elizabeth Warren will be the Democratic nominee for President in 2020 ( 11% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sjy on 2017-07-23; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-07-31.
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Donald Trump would contest in the 2020 elections. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by DragonGod on 2017-06-16; known on 2020-11-07; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.