Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Independent Group for Change to have gained seats in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Labour to have won a majority in general election ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Liberal Democrats to have won a majority in general election ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: By 2019-11-01] Conservatives to have won a majority in general election ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-07-24; known on 2019-11-01.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 or fewer ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] between 35 and 40 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.
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[Macri to be re-elected president of Argentina, given USDARS] < 35 ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-10-28.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of November 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] November 2018 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-12-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-09.
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PG&E blackouts resume before the end of this week ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-22; known on 2019-10-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-24.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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The Senate to vote on impeachment of the 45th president before the end of June 2020 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-19; known on 2020-07-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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The lowest qualifying score for entry into the 2019 Classic Tetris World Championship will be above 700000 points ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by deoh on 2019-10-18; known on 2019-10-20; judged wrong by deoh on 2019-10-19.
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The helical engine works ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2019-10-15; known on 2025-01-16.
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[Prizes] A Chinese citizen to win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2019 ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-10-12.
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All US-China trade war tariffs (imposed since June 2018) are not in effect ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-07-01.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] ASX 200 (now 6607) ( 45% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] Hang Seng (now 26307) ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] KOSPI (now 2049) ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] OMX Tallinn (now 1236) ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] SSI Shanghai (now 2973) ( 46% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] FTSE 100 (now 7187) ( 43% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] CAC 40 (now 5628) ( 48% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NIKKEI 225 (now 21801) ( 54% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-03.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] NSE-All Share Nigeria (now 26584) ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Equity prices: As of 2020-07-31, the following stock price indices to exceed their current values:] DJIA (now 26756) ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-11; known on 2020-07-31; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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Rick Perry to testify publicly before a committee in Congress as part of impeachment inquiry ( 72% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-10; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-02-04.
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[US politics] Andrew Yang to participate in the fifth Democratic primary debate (November 2019) ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-08-26; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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China publicly announces an investigation into Hunter Biden ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-10-04; known on 2020-11-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-09.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] October 2018 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of October 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] September 2019 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-11-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-05.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] over 30,000 ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] between 20,000 and 26,000 ( 90% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[Donald Trump to remain president of the US, conditional on Dow Jones being] under 20,000 ( 83% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-10-01.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Canadian ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Australian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Japanese ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Chinese ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Norwegian ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be Swedish ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be British ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be French ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] No winner to be American ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] At least one winner to be American ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[2020 Economics Nobel Prize] More than one winner ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-27; known on 2020-10-20; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 20 or more ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 19 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 18 ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 17 ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 16 ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 15 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 14 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-07.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 13 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-06.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 12 ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] exactly 11 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[US politics: Of the 35 Senate seats up for election in 2020, Democrats to win] 10 or fewer ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-26; known on 2020-11-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] UK out of EU ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-16.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 13 or more ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 12 ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 11 ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 10 ( 24% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 6 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 5 ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 4 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the November 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 3 or fewer ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2019-11-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: SEC, state AG or other regulatory body investigations into We within 60 days ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-11-21; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
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Scott Galloway: SoftBank's Vision Fund will be shuttered within 12 months ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2020-09-22; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2020-09-24.
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Scott Galloway: Investigative journalism pieces documenting malfeasance at We within 30 days ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2019-09-22; known on 2019-10-22; judged right by batemancapital on 2019-11-21.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Longtermism will be the general outlook of EAs ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Positively shaping AI and reducing biorisk will be the top 2 focuses within existential risk reduction (conditional on X-Risk still being a priority) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Effective Altruism 2024:] Existential risk reduction will have more attention than any other cause ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-09-19; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4500 ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4400 ( 43% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4300 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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[Number of confirmed exoplanets to exceed] 4200 ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-27; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.
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US Politics: Republican nominee for Vice President to be Mike Pence ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-08-27; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-29.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 54% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged right by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC June 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-06-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-06-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged right by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 37% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC July 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 9% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-07-30; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC September 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-09-17; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-17.
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[US FOMC April 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-04-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-05-02.