Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 67% | 83% | 95% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 19 | 25 | 27 | 40 | 82 | 84 | 277 |
Displaying all predictions made by Pablo. Filter by:
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Tech – Amazon announces plans to offers connectivity or phone plans as an add on to Amazon Prime by the end of August 2017. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-07-09; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-09-13.
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I will attend Gen Con for at least one day of August 17-20, 2017 ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-20; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-20.
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I will attend EA Global San Francisco for at least one day between 11-13 August 2017 ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-08-14.
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If I buy a new laptop during the next 3 weeks, then I will be glad that I've bought it in 2 months ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-18; known on 2017-08-17; judged right by crabman on 2017-08-18.
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On 2017-06-18 gismeteo will show that there was rain on 2017-06-17 in Moscow ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-06-17; known on 2017-06-18; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-06-18.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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I will have read 70% of the chapters of the biography before July. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by dnti808 on 2017-06-14; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2017-07-01.
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I will still have the same job, in good standing, by 7pm CT on 16 June ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-12; known on 2017-06-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-17.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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[My Machine Learning Seminar grade will be] A ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-06-10; known on 2017-06-25; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-25.
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Tech – OnePlus 5 launches at a price point above $550 new in the US. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-20.
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JD or I will <REDACTED CODE RFRI> by the end of 20 June ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-06-06; known on 2017-06-20; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-06-20.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Politics, Venezuela – President Maduro remains in power through the end of June. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump will resign on his 146 th day in office ( 9% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by John8128 on 2017-05-16; known on 2017-06-15; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-06-15.
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I go to Kenya in June or July 2017 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-27; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-08-01.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Donald Trump remains President at the end of 2018 ( 82% confidence; 52 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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I will kill myself before graduation ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-03-05; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-07-01.
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The EA Funds team will decide to continue with the EA Funds after the initial three-month period. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-03-01; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by ioannes on 2017-07-02.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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President Trump impeached for conspiring with enemies (russia or otherwise) ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-23; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Mark Zuckerberg will run in the 2020 USA presidential elections. ( 9% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2017-01-14; known on 2019-08-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2019-08-16.
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I will finish (in the sense of it being usable) my prediction app by end of June 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Chri on 2017-01-04; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by Chri on 2017-07-05.
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Trump is the acting president of USA on January 1, 2018 ( 91% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mortehu on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01.
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Vladimir Putin is not the President of Russia at the end of this prediction. ( 40% confidence; 16 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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Joaquín Guzmán Loera (El Chapo) will escape from prison again before 2020 ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Angela Merkel will serve another term as chancellor of Germany ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by phreeza on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-10-16; judged right by iCrown on 2017-09-25.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Las Malvinas to be liberated by Argentina. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-07-09; known on 2017-10-27; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-10-27.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.
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Google will be the most used search engine for the web in 2050. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2015-01-26; known on 2051-01-01.
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“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.
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“By the middle of the 21st century, a team of fully autonomous humanoid robot soccer players shall win a soccer game, complying with the official rules of FIFA, against the winner of the most recent World Cup.” – Robocup mission statement ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-11; known on 2050-01-01.
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North Korea’s government will not collapse (whether due to revolt/civil war, or war with another country) before Dec 31, 2015. ( 93% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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In 2015 there will not be any terrorist attacks in the US that kill more than 40 people. ( 85% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
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During 2015 I will lose my wallet. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-31.
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Barack Obama will be President of the United States as of 1st January 2016. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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By midnight on New Year's Eve, I will have fewer than 1000 followers on Twitter ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by roreiy on 2015-01-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by roreiy on 2016-03-16.
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Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-06-20.
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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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Wayne Hsiung will refuse to bet against the claim that attitudes to in vitro meat will change after such meat becomes commercially available. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-14; known on 2014-05-17; judged right by Pablo on 2014-05-15.
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Dan McLaughlin will fail to play the PGA Tour after completing 10,000 hours of deliberate practice. http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-26384712 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2014-05-01; known on 2017-04-30; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-27.
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In 2013, the ratio of anecdotes confirming Seth Roberts's various pet theories published in Roberts's blog, relative to those disconfirming them, will be at least 10 to one. ( 80% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Pablo on 2017-06-16.
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LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will still have making a prediction a day as a Daily in HabitRPG through May 31, 2014 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-05-31; judged right by Ham Nox on 2014-06-01.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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As of March 27th, 2018, I will still consider “effective altruism” to be a key part of my identity, and will still be donating at least 10% of my income to charity, conditional on my not having become convinced that saving to donate later makes more sense ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-03-28; known on 2018-03-27; judged right by aarongertler on 2018-03-27.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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LSD: I will experience any kind of 'flashback' within 5 years. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2017-09-30; judged wrong by lazarus on 2018-10-01.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Conditional on civilization not collapsing, emulations will be developed sometime between 25 and 150 years from now. — Robin Hanson ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2013-05-06; known on 2162-01-01.
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By 2023, someone will have a part or all of their calvarium (skull cap) removed and replaced by a transparent, durable material for the purpose of body modification. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Digglerson on 2013-03-25; known on 2023-04-01.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Barack Obama will be assassinated in 2013 ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by DrDiaphanous on 2013-01-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Cure for baldness discovered by 2014 — The Telegraph. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2015-01-01.
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Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
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Obama will be elected President in 2012 ( 69% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cmessinger on 2011-08-16; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
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In the next ten years, self-identified Libertarians will outnumber self-identified Republicans in the US. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Within 6 months, a nationally-known Democratic strategist, pundit, or politician will claim that Obama's performance in the first 2012 debate was a clever strategy to lower expectations. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-28; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Self-driving cars will be available for sale or lease in most US states within ten years (2022). ( 41% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by mad on 2023-01-17.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal “Information Sciences” by 2013. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-13; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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By the end of tomorrow (October 12th) Morendil will post part two of his LessWrong article on forecasting. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2012-10-13; judged right by Pablo on 2012-10-12.
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By the end of June 2013 I will have donated at least six thousand US dollars to either Effective Animal Activism (part of 80000 Hours) or some other organization that I believe is most cost effective. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-11; known on 2013-07-01; judged right by Pablo on 2013-07-05.
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I will complete Remembering the Kanji 1 before 2014. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-10-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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They'll clone a Neanderthal (or other species of primitive human) by 2040 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-06; known on 2050-12-31.
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There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Someone on Fox News or one of the headlines on their website will claim that Mitt Romney won the 2012-10-03 presidential debate. ( 83% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by aaronsw on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-04; judged right by aaronsw on 2012-10-04.
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A “theory of everything” combining quantum mechanics and general relativity found by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Linux most widely used operating system for personal desktop and laptop computers in the world by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Luke Muehlhauser will not publish a book (by a mainstream publisher) in 2013. ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-11.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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At least one person will reach 150 years of age by 2150. — Steve Austad ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2151-01-01.
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If we keep writing down common sense datums until 2100, we can make computers as smart as people. — Robin Hanson ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, world economic growth rates will have increased by over a factor of a hundred. — Robin Hanson ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Classical digital computers will never be phenomenally conscious. — David Pearce ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2100-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.