Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 2 | 18 |
Displaying all predictions made by aseyfarth. Filter by:
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Trump will finish his first term as president. Note: I tried to make this prediction a few weeks ago and it didn't save. I'm a lot less confident given recent events but I'm adding it in here still for the sake of accountability and honesty. ( 68% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by SeriousPod on 2020-11-25.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Trump eventually signs an executive order forcing everyone to kneel in his presence ( 3% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.
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Trump's wall will never be built. At most, very small portions might. Definitely no wall the length of the border, as was his main campaign promise. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by SeriousPod on 2017-05-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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There will be a week during which it is more common to buy food with gold than any other form of money (e.g., USD) in some US settlement with at least 1000 people in 2017. ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by aseyfarth on 2017-01-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2018-01-02.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 78% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2025-01-30; judged wrong by regex on 2019-12-19.
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Politics – President Trump rescinds the Executive Order suspending entry to the United States of Iranian nationals by end of 2017-02-05. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-01-29; known on 2017-02-06; judged wrong by aseyfarth on 2017-02-06.
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The 2020 presidential election will be Donald Trump v. Oprah Winfrey. ( 3% confidence; 25 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2017-01-16; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Holly Holm will beat Ronda Rousey in their rematch. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-03; known on 2017-12-04.
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By 2085 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 150 ( 28% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2085-01-01.
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“Within ten years the SAT testing service will require students to take a blood test to prove they are not on cognitive enhancing drugs.” —James Miller ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 50% of Chinese babies to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.
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“Within ten years either genetic manipulation or embryo selection will have been used on at least 10,000 babies in China to increase the babies’ expected intelligence” —James Miller ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-12-31.