Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
-
A god will give me absolute unambiguous proof of his existence to me by tomorrow at noon. ( 0% confidence )
Created by woodse on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
The top prediction (the first listed on the homepage) on 16th January won't have been decided yet ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-19; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by woodse on 2015-01-16.
-
We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
-
We see Ricky as we leave BK ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-17.
-
Sweatshops will be regarded as an essential step to modern prosperity by 2015 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-16.
-
We remember to go into the library to book a room ( 100% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
-
FMK tells me she doesn't want to speak to me again ( 30% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-16.
-
DAX will be above 10000 on Jan 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Chri on 2014-12-18; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by Chri on 2015-01-15.
-
Spurs will beat/draw against Hornets ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
-
Rockets will beat/draw against Magic ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-15; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-15.
-
Swiss Franc CHF will not be more valued than Euro EUR before end of first half of 2015. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kuudes on 2014-12-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-15.
-
The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
-
The Botworld paper will cause someone from IDSIA to express some opinion about AIXItl working in only restricted environments, which that person from IDSIA says they did not possess before reading about Botworld, or the update is apparent from their previ ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by yudkowsky@gmail.com on 2014-05-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
-
Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality reaches a conclusion (not counting chapters explicitly denoted as Epilogues) before the end of 2014 and also before Homestuck finishes Act 7 (not counting “Psyche” fake-endings). ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by orthonormal on 2014-01-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2015-01-15.
-
Tottenham will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
Ipswich will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
Bradford will progress to the 4th round of the FA Cup ( 49% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
According to wikipedia Jesus died at the age of 31 ( 41% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
GT's CMT is 8+ ( 4% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
76ers will beat/draw against Hawks ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
-
Spurs will beat/draw against Wizards ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-14.
-
MA30237 exam will be cancelled ( 17% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-14.
-
I start polyphasic sleeping successfully. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-01-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-01-14.
-
We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
-
We will end the year with an unemployment rate > 6% in the US. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-01-01.
-
I will be alive at the end of this class period. ( 100% confidence )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-13; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Celtics will beat/draw against Pelicans ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Nets will beat/draw against Rockets ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Pistons will beat/draw against Raptors ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
Bulls will beat/draw against Magic ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-13; judged wrong by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
My flight from Chicago to Roanoke will not be canceled tomorrow evening. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by benwr on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by benwr on 2015-01-13.
-
I had the correct spelling. ( 90% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-12.
-
I will visit both Spain and France (again) before 2015. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-01-12.
-
It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
Number close Ellie2 by or on November 30th ( 20% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
Number close RT by or on November 30th ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
Meet up with Megan by or on 30th November. ( 40% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
Meet up with Nicola by or on 30th November. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
-
Inflation rate of the dollar is 4.2% or higher for 2014. ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-15; known on 2015-03-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
-
It was Lana Del Rey in BK ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-12; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.
-
Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
-
Knicks will beat/draw against Hornets ( 70% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
-
Clippers will beat/draw against Mavericks ( 60% confidence )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-11.
-
Arsenal win/draw against Stoke ( 85% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged right by dgray on 2015-01-11.
-
Man Utd win/draw against Southampton ( 90% confidence )
Created by dgray on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-12; judged wrong by dgray on 2015-01-11.
-
FMK SC CBP, NB, H talk to Flash ( 8% confidence )
Created by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11; known on 2015-01-11; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2015-01-11.
-
Apple will switch away from Samsung as the fab for its processors in iPhones and iPads by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
-
Reed Hastings will not be CEO of Netflix by 2015 ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-01; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.