What is PredictionBook?
PredictionBook is a site to record and track your predictions.
How sure are you?
Rather than just recording what you think will happen, PredictionBook allows you to record just how sure you are that it will happen. You can distinguish between those things you think will probably occur, and those things you're really really sure will occur. If you're properly calibrated, you'll be able to see that about 60% of the things you're 60% sure will happen, do happen, and 90% of the things you're 90% sure will happen, do happen.
Popular Predictions
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UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 ( 13% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2026-07-01.