My Modalert will arrive tomorrow.
Created by gwern on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-13.
- gwern estimated 33% on 2011-10-12
- gwern said “today isn’t looking good either; might as well judge it already” on 2011-10-13
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2011-10-13.
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