Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 64% | 73% | 80% | 93% | 94% | |
Sample Size | 136 | 202 | 169 | 255 | 784 | 225 | 1771 |
Displaying all predictions made by Baeboo. Filter by:
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Gwern has dissociative identity disorder and the identity of his split personality is Yvain. ( 0% confidence; 28 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2025. ( 79% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2025-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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By 2020, Puerto Rico will be admitted to the Union ( 39% confidence; 18 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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By mid-century, Mandarin will be more widely spoken in Africa than English. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-21; known on 2060-01-01.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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By 2040 the US remains the world's strongest economic power, as measured by GDP. — Axel Boldt ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
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2024: A vaccine for the cold is readily available at pharmacies and clinics worldwide. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jarlathhealy on 2012-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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In the next 40 years, at least 1 Nobel Prize Literature will go to someone with a LessWrong account. ( 7% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-08; known on 2052-09-08.
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No functional whole brain emulation of a human will exist on Earth before 2050. ( 60% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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Yvain will have more LessWrong karma than me in 5 years. ( 86% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2017-09-04; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-04.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012-2020. ( 74% confidence; 20 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
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No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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2020: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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2020: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2020-01-02.
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2025: Less than 50% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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2025: Less than 20% of the global student body is educated in brick-and-mortar schools/colleges. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-25; known on 2025-01-01.
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Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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Natural languages no longer widely used for communication a century from now. (Conditional on non-extinction of Homo sapiens/non-occurrence of apocalypse.) ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-01; known on 2112-02-01.
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Human whole-genome sequencing <=$100 by 2020. ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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“Sovereign nation states will cease to exist and there will be one world government” —krozier93; BBC ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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The Sahara desert will be smaller by square kilometers in 2112 than 2012 ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Space elevators will make space travel cheap and easy” —Ahdok; BBC ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“80% of the world will have gay marriage” —Paul, BBC ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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Functioning commercial fusion by 2112 —Kennys_Heroes, BBC ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“Nanorobots will flow around our body fixing cells, and will be able to record our memories” —Alister Brown, BBC ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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'Antarctica will be “open for business”' —Dev 2; BBC ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will be able to control the weather” —mariebee_; BBC ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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“We will have the ability to communicate through thought transmission” —Dev 2; BBC ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
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SIAI shuts down or relocates outside the United States before 2021. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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No open source Minecraft client before 2023 ( 57% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Nic_Smith on 2023-01-01.
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“Mankind is unlikely to exist in anything like its present form in 2150.” -lukeprog ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-20; known on 2150-01-01.
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Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.
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By 2024, either a) group isomorphism problem will be shown to be equivalent to the graph isomorphism problem or b) the group isomorphism will be shown to be in P. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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With the making of the North American Union, a new revolutionary technology will be developed in the attempt to set a colony on Mars. ( 8% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2023-07-29; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-05.
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Fusion Power will revolutionize the world energy demands by 2025. ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2025-11-17.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2045 ( 56% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2046-01-01.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2035 ( 51% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2036-01-01.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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The world’s first lunar tourist by end of 2025 ( 30% confidence; 15 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2046 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125 ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-11-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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The United States will contain exactly 50 states by 2025. ( 72% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States will contain more than 50 states by 2025. ( 30% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.
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US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.