Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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I in 3 years ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2026-05-22.
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I in 2 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2025-05-22.
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I in 3 years ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2026-05-23.
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I in 2 years ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2025-05-23.
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Putin will fire Shoigu and Gerasimov ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-27.
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I in 4 years ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2027-05-23.
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Donald Trump will die within five years. ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2020-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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Joe Biden runs for president in 2024 ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-13; known on 2024-01-16.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in 2024. ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-11-09.
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SBF extradited from the Bahamas to the US ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-14; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-23.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $175 million on its opening weekend (Dec 16-18) ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2022-12-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-19.
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'Avatar: The Way of Water' will domestically gross more than $650 million by January 31, 2023 (inclusive) ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-01; known on 2023-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Donald Trump runs as an Independent in the 2024 Presidential election ( 27% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-08-16.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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Ron DeSantis wins the 2024 Republican presidential primary ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-14; known on 2024-09-01.
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Sam Bankman-Fried will be arrested before January 1, 2024, on charges related to the (as of 2022-11-10) liquidity crunch at FTX. ( 51% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pmberg on 2022-11-10; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-12-13.
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Magnus Carlsen will officially accuse Hans Niemann of cheating in an over the board tournament ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 44.000 dkk ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 46.000 dkk ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 48.000 dkk ( 80% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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[The price per square meter for apartments in Copenhagen for Q1 2023 will be below] 50.000 dkk ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-08; known on 2023-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2023-06-25.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Johnny Depp is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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Amber Heard is cast in a movie produced by a major film studio ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-02; known on 2024-06-02.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 23% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 25% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 22% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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[The Sweden Democrats receive more than] 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-09-14.
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The Sweden Democrats receive more than 20% of the votes in the 2022 election for the Swedish Riksdag ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-26; known on 2022-09-13.
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The number of school shootings on the NBC tracker for 2022 exceeds 9 ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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User Clouduknguyen_95 will realize that their predictions have been 'griefed' and will not make another public prediction related to medicine before June 25th ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-27.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals themself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-26.
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User Tapetum-Lucidum reveals himself to be user AgentOrange by judging this prediction right ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-25; known on 2022-06-08.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Amber Heard will be found liable for defaming Johnny Depp ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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NATO will have more than 30 full member states before January 1, 2023, ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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at least one major terrorist attack on a pride event with deaths. killers will reference “grooming” as cause. ( 25% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2024-05-08.
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assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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Russian troops invade Moldova ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-29.
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-28.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-04.
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An earthquake measuring 8.0 or above will occur anywhere on Earth before June 1, 2022 ( 9% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-17; known on 2022-06-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-16.
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Danes will vote yes to abolish Denmark's opt-out from EU's common security and defense policy ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-07; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-01.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Ethereum price will reach a new all time high in 2022 ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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0xB4DC0D3C will invite and meet cloe in Venice in 2025 and it will be great! ( 100% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-25; known on 2021-10-25.
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Afghanistan – Kabul falls to the Taliban before start of 2021-08-17. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-08-15; known on 2021-08-17; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-08-16.
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Nothing ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
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[In the anime Odd Taxi]: Lhxv Zvgfhln'f xvyyre vf ure ercynprzrag, Fnxhen Jnqntnxv ( 75% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-24; known on 2021-06-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-28.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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Over 50% of current drivers will be using auto driven cars.1 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Yoro on 2021-04-04; known on 2040-01-01.
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Will we be able to upload our consciousness to the cloud by the year 3000? ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by kadavy on 2021-03-29; known on 3000-01-01.
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SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
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Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $10k. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Derek Chauvin will be convicted of murder ( 49% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by enolan on 2020-06-17; known on 2021-04-30; judged right by Deepak on 2021-04-20.
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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miguelyt*b's husband's Google account was disabled for containing CSAM ( 66% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-10-15; known on 2020-11-01.
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A vaccine will be out and at least 50M people will be vaccinated by COVID’s second birthday party (November 17th 2021) ( 90% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Liging on 2020-11-15; known on 2021-11-17; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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Legal challenges initiated by the Donald Trump campaign will not change the outcome of the US Presidential election ( 95% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-11-04; known on 2020-12-01; judged right by Deepak on 2020-12-15.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Trump dies of COVID-19 ( 6% confidence; 34 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by technillogue on 2020-10-02; known on 2021-01-22; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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UK schools will close again due a significant rise in COVID cases by 15th Oct 2020 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2020-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-10-16.
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A COVID-19 vaccine will be generally available in the UK by March 2021 ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-09-01; known on 2021-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-03-15.
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California earthquake before 2021 causing 10 or more deaths ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-08-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Joe Biden is the sitting president 4 years from today ( 45% confidence; 25 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by jamesrom on 2020-08-22; known on 2024-08-22.
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At launch, the cheapest PS5 available from an authorized retailer in the United States will cost more than $500 (excl. tax, shipping) ( 90% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-30; known on 2020-12-10.
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Republicans will win the 2024 presidential election ( 45% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-28; known on 2025-01-01.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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Ghislane Maxwell will die by the end of the year 12/31 ( 13% confidence; 27 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by daveisright on 2020-07-02; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2020-12-31.
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Another Supreme Court justice will retire before the end of the year. ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-01; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-31.
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A COVID vaccine will be widely available in the USA by the end of January 2021 where widely available is defined as given to more than 10,000 people not as part of a clinical trial. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2020-06-28; known on 2021-02-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-02-03.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Joe Biden will pick Stacey Abrams as his running mate. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-12.
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The Washington Post, unlike other newspapers, will expand parts of its newsroom ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-21; known on 2020-06-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-26.
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Biden wins in 2020 US elections (just ticking off boring politics things) ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2020-11-15; judged right by akarlin on 2020-11-15.
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Elizabeth Warren is Joe Biden's running mate ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-15; known on 2020-11-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-08-12.
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SpaceX's Starship to do a flight at least 1 km up by February 20, 2021. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-02-22; judged right by kuudes on 2021-02-20.
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At least 10k people are living on Mars by the end of 2049. ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-06; known on 2049-12-31.
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Donald Trump to win reelection with at least 49 US states voting for him. ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-04; known on 2020-11-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.
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US Corona-virus lock downs will end in May ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gunner1313 on 2020-04-11; known on 2020-04-25; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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There will be a shooting at a showing of Joker. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JohnGreer on 2019-10-04; known on 2019-11-04; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09.
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I could finish a 1L bottle of water in 30 seconds or less. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-09-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26.
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AHQ will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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IG will make it out of groups. (LoL). ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-09-26; known on 2019-10-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.