Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
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Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Displaying all predictions made by jtandy. Filter by:
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.