Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 67% | 83% | 86% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 3 | 6 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 0 | 30 |
Displaying all predictions made by average_joe. Filter by:
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Ted Cruz to win the Republican nomination for President. ( 14% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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I will have a draft of the updated analytics available by the end of the week. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reubensandwich on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2015-08-30.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates in September. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-08-23; known on 2015-09-17; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-17.
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In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-09-17.
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The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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Congress will reauthorize the Export-Import Bank by the end of August. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-10-08.
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Given a no result on the Greek referendum, Greece exits the Eurozone ( 35% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by modulus on 2015-07-05; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.
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I will be single as of October 2015 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2015-06-11; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by splorridge on 2015-12-08.
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The winner of the 2015 ImageNet challenge will have a error rate between 2-3%. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by FractalHeretic on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-09-15.
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I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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HP MoR: The Hat and Cloak that interacted with Hermione is Professor McGonagall. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by cafesofie on 2012-03-25; known on 2016-04-17; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-02-24.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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Copper prices to fall by >=50% in 3 years. —Michael Pettis ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-17.
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There will be press report of significant uproar in the U.S. in next 3 years against an anti-Christian video released on the internet (similar to anti muslim video but mirrored) ( 22% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-06.
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http://dkmvs.com/ will be a viral hit in 30 days. Edit: Let's define “hit” as averaging > 1,000 page views a day for 3 days prior to the outcome being known. ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by scott.arbeitman on 2012-03-21; known on 2012-04-21; judged wrong by scott.arbeitman on 2012-05-02.
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“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.
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I will not play another game of Dota for another 3 weeks. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by williamycai on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-04-18; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-04-03.
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At least 15 people will attend the next Student Economics Association roundtable. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-26; known on 2012-03-30; judged wrong by Danny_Hintze on 2012-03-30.
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Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HamletHenna on 2012-03-25; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by HamletHenna on 2012-06-20.
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>=$1.6m will be donated towards the Center for Modern Rationality in the next month ( 1% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-12; known on 2012-04-12; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-12.
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I will tinker with PredictionBook's source code before April 1 and manage to add a new feature. ( 6% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-03-30.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“USA and/or Israel to execute an overt Air Strike against Iran before midnight ET 31 Mar 2012” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-03-31.
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3-D is just a fad: “It's happened before and it will happen again: At some point soon, 3-D cinema will regain its well-earned status as a sublime and ridiculous headache.” ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-04-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-04.
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“Within five years the Chinese government will have embarked on a major eugenics program designed to mass produce super-geniuses. (40%)” —James Miller ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-07; known on 2015-10-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07.