Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 33% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 1 | 13 |
Displaying all predictions made by galen. Filter by:
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[Cato: The number of predictions in December 2019 by Cato to be exactly] 13 or more ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-11-09; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-07.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 9 ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 8 ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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[Politics: The number of candidates participating in the December 2019 Democratic primary debates to be exactly] 7 ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-01; known on 2019-12-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-12-20.
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Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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Bitcoin (BTC) touches $20,000 USD before January 1st, 2020 ( 7% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by jamesrom on 2019-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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US-China Trade War will NOT end in 2019. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by zilong on 2019-06-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by zilong on 2019-12-31.
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BTC will end 2019 higher than it started (priced in USD). ( 87% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-12-31.
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Pirate Bay will still exist in its name by 2020 ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-12-16; known on 2113-12-16.
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By 2050, a biologically functional but cosmetic novel body part produced by 3D printing technology will be demonstrated in a human, in vivo. For example: A horn, pointy ears, or an extra thumb. ( 75% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-02-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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'I expect to see an impressive proto-AGI within the next 8 years' —Shane Legg ( 20% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-31; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-12-31.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.