Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 49% | 57% | 65% | 86% | 94% | 89% | |
Sample Size | 241 | 286 | 236 | 287 | 552 | 46 | 1648 |
Displaying all predictions made by pranomostro. Filter by:
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The United States will contain less than 50 states by 2025. ( 9% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2025, more motor vehicle engines will be manufactured using “3D printing” technology than by any conventional manufacturing process. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2112, deep sea exploration will reveal a hitherto unknown species of living trilobite. ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2112-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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A working brain-to-brain direct communication interface will be demonstrated in human clinical trials by 2025. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The technology to render a human effectively invisible (i.e. apparently transparent) to the eye at a distance of less than 100 meters will be publicly demonstrated by 2020. ( 46% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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Ecstasy (MDMA) will be legalized for prescription use in the U.S. by 2025. ( 26% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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The United States drug scheduling system will be dramatically revised by 2025. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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1,000,000+ planets will have been cataloged by 2035 ( 41% confidence; 13 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by amcknight on 2011-11-11; known on 2036-01-01.
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In 2020, every single one of the 5 tallest buildings in the world will be located in China, Hong Kong, or Taiwan. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The weekly newspaper The Economist will be in continuous publication until at least 2043. ( 46% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2043-01-01.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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There will be a continual presence on Mars of at least one person or probe either on the surface or in orbit until at least 2045 ( 50% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-31; known on 2045-01-01.
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econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Japan. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within the Korean peninsula. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on nuclear weapons being used, the target will be within Pakistan or India. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Conditional on the resumption of warfare, there will be <100,000 South Korean civilian casualties. ( 48% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-22; known on 2050-01-01.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2025 ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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Reservatrol or a chemically similar compound will be an accepted anti-aging treatment in humans by 2019 ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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By 2034 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 38% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2034-01-01.
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By 2075 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2075-01-01.
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By 2065 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2065-01-01.
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By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
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By 2055 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2055-01-01.
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By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2045 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 38% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2045-01-01.
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By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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By 2025 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 130. ( 7% confidence; 17 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Consensus will be that Koomey's Law no longer applies in 25 years. ( 56% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-10; known on 2036-10-10.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“. The revenue for higher ed is falling into a black hole. I predict that by 2021 the whole enterprise will cease to exist in anything resembling its current form.” —Dan King ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Go will not be solved in the next fifty years. ( 69% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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Chess will be a solved game in 50 years ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-07; known on 2061-10-07.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The vast majority of aeroplanes are now hydrogen powered, or use some combination of hydrogen and other renewable energy.” ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.
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No euthanasia coaster will be built in the next 30 years. (See http://news.discovery.com/tech/euthanasia-sucicide-rollercoaster-ride-110919.html ) ( 87% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2041-09-21.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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Mirror matter will be shown to make up at least 1% of dark matter. ( 17% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-09-14.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
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NGE: There will not be a live-action Evangelion movie before 2020 ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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By 2025, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2025-01-01.
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By 2020, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2030 consensus will be that low Earth orbit is undergoing Kessler syndrome. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2031-01-01.
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A state will try to secede from the US in the next 25 years ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-29; known on 2036-08-29.
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Spain, Greece, Portugal, and Ireland to leave the Euro —Michael Pettis ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“[Chinese growth] will hit an average of 3% well before the end of the decade” —Michael Pettis ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-28; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Simon Cowell will be cryogenically stored. ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-25; known on 2039-08-25.
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“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
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The Hubble Telescope will not deorbit before January 1, 2020. ( 67% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The Hubble Telescope will deorbit before the end of 2025 ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-18; known on 2026-01-01.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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Relationship between P and BPP resolved by 2045 ( 69% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-16; known on 2045-01-01.
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Brazil only 7th largest world economy or smaller in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Egypt, Malaysia and Indonesia in top 20 largest world economies —HSBC ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Turkish GDP > Russian in 2050 —HSBC ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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American per-capita GDP 3x greater than Chinese per-capita GDP in 2050 —HSBC ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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Chinese & Indian per capita in 2050 will be 8x greater (in constant 2000 dollars) than 2011 —HSBC ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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India GDP less than either China or USA in 2050 —HSBC ( 76% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01; judged unknown by Baeboo on 2020-12-01.
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India >=$8.2 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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US >=$22.3 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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China >=$24.6 trillion GDP (constant 2000 dollars) in 2050 —HSBC ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2050-01-01.
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" I’m reasonably certain that [>1b pub library circulation] will also be true 35 years from now" ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2046-09-01.
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“Ten years from now, U.S. public libraries will circulate more than a billion print books each year” —Walt Crawford ( 81% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-12; known on 2021-09-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.
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The ITER fusion reactor will have first plasma by the end of 2022. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-09; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
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Confirmed observation of a neutrino source outside our solar system other than SN 1987A by 2060 ( 83% confidence; 11 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-07-25; known on 2061-01-01.
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Emotion-reading wearable device commercially available (may need prescription or license) by 2031, or obtainable by publicly available plans (eg open-source project, Make magazine article, Instructable how-to, etc) ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-07-23; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.
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By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
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the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
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Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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P!=NP, and proven by 2040 —Ken ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2041-01-01.
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90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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'The final collapse of the European Union' ( 43% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2011-06-18.
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'Smart meters in every UK home' ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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'The vast majority of countries are democratic' by 2055 ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2055-01-01.
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'Global average temperatures have risen by 1°C' ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by omni on 2021-07-23.