Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Bernie Sanders chooses Carly Fiorina as VP ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-28; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-03.
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Hillary Clinton will run for president and be nominated by the Democrats in 2016. ( 42% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Dapple on 2016-09-03.
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Joe Biden will win the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination. ( 10% confidence; 28 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-25; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-09-02.
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I will be single on Sep 1, 2016 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-09-02; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-02.
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Lewandowski to transfer to Arsenal in Summer 2016 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-09-01.
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Provably intelligent life (was) on HD164595 ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30; known on 2397-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-01.
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Trump will drop out of the Presidential race before Aug 31st ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-05; known on 2016-08-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-31.
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Russia will be aggressive toward Finland. ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-08-30.
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I will get 13 catches of five balls this year ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-30.
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Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.
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The Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29.
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The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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Technology will continue to advance ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tacita on 2015-08-26; known on 2016-08-26; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.
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I will get 100 catches of four balls this year ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-24.
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Brasil will be ranked at least 8th in the medal tally table, with 27 medals overall. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Rossiya will be ranked 3rd in the medal tally for Rio Olympics. ( 54% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Zhongguo will top the Rio Olympics overall and gold medal tally. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-18; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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Bharat will win more than 10 medals at Rio 2016 — Sports Minister Sarbananda Sonowal ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-16; known on 2016-08-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-22.
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UFC 202: Conor McGregor loses to Nate Diaz ( 57% confidence )
Created by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-15; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by Pradeep_Kumar on 2016-08-21.
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joe responded ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2016-08-21; known on 2016-08-21; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-21.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.
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this computer will boot after successful upgrade from ubuntu 15.10 to 16.04 ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16; known on 2016-08-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-17.
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Trump will use donated money to pay off any portion of the loans he has made to his primary campaign ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-05; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-16.
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1.8%+ urban development growth in 2015 ( http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.URB.GROW/countries?display=graph ) ( 97% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2015-12-13; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-16.
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Ted won't be able to provide me with a way to actually restrict the player universe in an ESPN fantasy football draft to remove the keepers in the next 48 hours. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2016-08-12; known on 2016-08-14; judged right by Porejide on 2016-08-15.
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HTC will ship a desktop-PC VR HMD to the general public before 2017 ( 91% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-14.
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Conditional on Germany proceeding with nuclear phaseout, coal will account for a larger share of generation (in TWh/yr terms) in 2015 than it did in 2012. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2016-08-13.
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The San Diego Chargers will announce before February 2016 that they will leave San Diego for Los Angeles ( 75% confidence )
Created by Radioguy76 on 2015-02-23; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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The Bitcoin reward halvening will increase its value by over 25% versus USD within a month of the event. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-07-08; known on 2016-08-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-12.
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Model will finish training before tomorrow moring and not crash. ( 80% confidence )
Created by sacred_datura on 2016-08-11; known on 2016-08-12; judged right by sacred_datura on 2016-08-12.
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I will get in my A1 ( 70% confidence )
Created by mingming2221 on 2015-09-24; known on 2016-08-10; judged right by mingming2221 on 2016-08-11.
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weather will be shit today when I'm walking ( 53% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10; known on 2016-08-11; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-10.
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Some kind of “PHP in the browser” system will overtake node.js in usage by August 4, 2016 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-02-09; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-08.
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Summer Olympics in Brazil happen in 2016 ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-24; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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The 2016 Olympics will be in Rio ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-29; known on 2016-08-29; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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Pedro Sánchez will be the next President of the Government of Spain ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-08-05.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.
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Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
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Pokemon Go will descend to <15M users by 08/20 ( 64% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sungk2048 on 2016-07-25; known on 2016-08-20; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-05.
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At 6 PM Sanders will announce an endorsement from Biden. ( 2% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by VonFoerster on 2016-01-14; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.
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[GoT] R + L = J will be revealed/referenced before the end of season 6. ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2016-08-02; judged right by HonoreDB on 2016-08-04.
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Bitcoin network survives to block halving. ( 99% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-03.
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cd591c54d0bbf69025801fcddf4a85d9 ( 74% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-02.
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benadryl 'coma' this weekend due to cleaning cat area ( 64% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-30; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01.
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I will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-08-01.
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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this prediction should definitely break then > _ > ( 52% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2016-07-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31.
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If SCOTUS hears a gay marriage case in the next 2 years the ruling will determine there is a constitutional right to gay marriage. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-27; known on 2016-09-27; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-31.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.