Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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The S&P 500 is above its current (2020-07-18) level on 2021-01-01 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-18; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by azatris on 2021-01-01.
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Austin's Kerbey Lane Cafe will begin moving from a magstripe card-based loyalty program to a mobile app loyalty program by 2021. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-05; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2021-01-01.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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I will release a blog post or other publication about this portfolio margin idea before EOY 2020 ( 10% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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Coda's mainnet will launch by EOY 2020 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-08-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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China will be revealed to have been faking data of COVID-19 confirmed cases by at least 30% on or before the end of year 2020. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2020-04-08; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2020 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2021-01-01.
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The current world record for the highest exit altitude for a freefall (unofficially set on October 14, 2012: 39,045 m / 128,100 ft) will not be broken until 2020. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2021-01-01.
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Apple will introduce some kind of augmented reality wearable device. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by quanticle on 2019-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by quanticle on 2021-01-01.
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S&P 500 index retests 2200 by the end of 2020 ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by batemancapital on 2021-01-01.
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By 2020, Eliezer Yudkowsky will have given up building friendly AI. ( 6% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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Open source MineCraft client by 2021 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Nic_Smith on 2011-11-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Nic_Smith on 2021-01-01.
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The WMATA Silver line will run to Dulles by the end of 2020. ( 40% confidence )
Created by davatk on 2018-04-24; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Apple will ship an iPhone with no ports before the end of 2020. ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jamesrom on 2017-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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Google to be more valuable in 2020 than 2015 ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2021-01-01.
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I will be banned on Twitter (@akarlin88) ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by akarlin on 2021-01-01.
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'Public smoking is banned across every US state' by 2021 ( 8% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Integer factoring in polynomial time, revealed by 2020 —Dick Lipton ( 9% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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“We will find life on Mars within 'the next decade', and discover a 'ubiquitous' bacterial ecosystem.” —Peter Diamandis ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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At least one self-described “anarchist” will be voted into a national office in the United States by 2021. ( 36% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The majority of Alcor cryopreservations as of 2011 will have maintained preservation continuity as of 2021. ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-04; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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'By the end of the decade, it will be clear that North Korea never had nuclear weapons under Kim Jong Il.' —Kevin ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Trump uses emergency broadcast system to ask for supporters to come to rallies ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-14; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The US to have at least 20 active nuclear submarines by the end of 2020. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The United States to have more nuclear powered submarines than any other single country through 2020. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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The internet dies. Functionally the internet is no more with no IP replacement ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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As of January 1, 2021, Russia to have second most number of active nuclear powered subs out of any country. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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The stock market will go down under President Trump (Conditional on him having a 4 year term, Inauguration-Inauguration) ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will repeal Obamacare in his first term ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by npcuck on 2017-01-06; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Zika will be found not to be the (sole, proximate) cause of microencephaly for the recent cases in Brazil ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by davidmanheim on 2016-02-17; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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There will be no war involving more than one of the US, Russia, China, or any member of the EU on different sides started before 2020 (Measure: Total eventual casualties above 100) ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by davidmanheim on 2017-01-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by davidmanheim on 2021-01-01.
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Secretary of Education Sarah Palin ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook has <=50M active users in 2021 ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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USA mints a coin worth $1,000,000,000 or more before 2021 ( 4% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-10-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Anthony Fauci will become TIME magazine's person of the year 2020 ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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By the end of 2020, there is no implementation of Scottish indyref2 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-06-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Deepak on 2021-01-01.
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A Level 7 (Chernobyl/2011 Japan level) nuclear accident will take place by end of 2020. ( 21% confidence; 21 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by ceterisparibus on 2011-11-23; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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Portugal – countrywide COVID-19 vaccination campaign has started by the end of 2020 ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by LouisLC on 2020-06-06; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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US republican senator/congressman/president will say that being a trans woman is somehow terrorism. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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I will ride in a level 4+ autonomous vehicle before 2021 ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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[The Economist predicts:] S&P 500 stock index ends year at least 10% down ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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The Australian government releases a version of the COVIDSafe app which supports Apple’s iOS contact tracing API in 2020 ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2020-05-21; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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North Korean government collapses in the next 5 years. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Saudi Arabian government collapses within the next 5 years. ( 10% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.