State of war has existed between Russian federation and at least one NATO member by 2016-01-01.
Created by simplicio on 2014-02-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
- simplicio estimated 7% on 2014-02-28
- procran estimated 15% on 2014-03-02
- chemotaxis101 estimated 8% on 2014-03-02
- drewmm estimated 5% on 2014-03-07
- gwern said “no declarations of war; marking wrong.” on 2016-01-01
- gwern judged this prediction wrong on 2016-01-01.
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