Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 55% | 66% | 61% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 42 | 107 | 90 | 80 | 154 | 10 | 483 |
Displaying all predictions made by ioannes. Filter by:
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Brexit margin of victory is >5% for remain ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for leave ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Brexit margin of victory is <5% for remain ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-23; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-24.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Bernie Sanders will drop out on or before June 30th ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2016-06-14; known on 2016-06-30; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2016-07-01.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Arya successfully assassinated by the Faceless Men in season 6. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-05-30; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-06-27.
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A democrat wins New York in the 2016 general presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Hilary wins California democratic primary. ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-18; known on 2016-06-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20.
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Created by ioannes on 2016-05-17; known on 2016-06-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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I leave my job by the end of May 2016. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-16; known on 2016-06-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Humanity still a thing in 2036 ( 89% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-13; known on 2036-12-31.
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Paul Ryan presides over the 2016 Republican Convention ( 79% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-13; known on 2016-08-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Trump to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 33% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-16.
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Clinton to back legalizing recreational and/or medical marijuana during 2016 election. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-21.
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Trump will take fewer than 210 electoral votes in 2016 election. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-05-10; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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I write Trump post-mortem piece by end of week. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-09; known on 2016-05-16; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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President Trump appoints Ron Paul as Secretary of State ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-08; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-02-01.
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Trump's VP pick is not white (counting hispanic as non-white). ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is a woman. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump's VP pick is not a career politician (i.e. is a businessperson, celebrity, etc.) ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Jeff Sessions is Trump's VP pick ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Kasich is Trump's VP pick ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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To “prove” he is Satoshi, Craig Wright will move early bitcoins that were mined in 2009, but that are not clearly Satoshi's ie block 12 or later. ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-05-31; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-01.
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Today, since I am integrated and centered now, I will get done all of my daily tasks. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EliTyre on 2016-05-03; known on 2016-05-04; judged wrong by EliTyre on 2016-05-04.
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Craig S. Wright not only fails to verify himself by demonstrating possession of satoshi's private key (eg 174731), but sometime after may 2, 2017 year tries to claim the same thing without proof again in a public way ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2018-06-01.
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Trump wins California ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-07-09; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-21.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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I will go to San Francisco tomorrow. ( 79% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-03; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-03.
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Views From The Six won't make Pitchfork's “Best New Music” ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-30; known on 2016-05-25; judged right by ioannes on 2016-06-11.
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Mom and I go to Point Reyes this weekend ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-29; known on 2016-05-02; judged right by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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I complete at least one “completionist” cycle this week ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-11; known on 2016-04-17; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-17.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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I finish the ML Udacity lessons by EOD Saturday ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-10.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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My mom gets a hip replacement in 2016. ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-08; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by ioannes on 2017-01-03.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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I submit my upcoming project by EOD Tuesday, 4/5 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-05.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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I run Freedom 24/7 for the next week ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-04-08; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-08.
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I finish the Nanodegree 5th project by EOD Sunday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-28; known on 2016-04-04; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-05.
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I will travel to Lyons on Monday ( 95% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-26; known on 2016-03-29; judged right by ioannes on 2016-03-29.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by December 2017 ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15.
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GiveWell and the Open Philanthropy Project will legally separate into two organizations by the end of 2016 ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-01-11.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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I finish my nanodegree program by EOD 5/15 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-16; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-16.
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I finish my nanodegree by the end of April 2016 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-05-02.
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I will submit my upcoming project by EOD Friday, 4/8 ( 85% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-08.
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I will submit my upcoming project by April 1, 2016 ( 40% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Ke Jie loses to AlphaGo ( 87% confidence; 15 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-08.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Full (infant) human mind provably fully simulatable on any amount of extant hardware ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Trump will win the Republican nomination ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-07; judged right by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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The UK will stay in the EU ( 67% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spinkley on 2016-02-24; known on 2016-06-24; judged wrong by Reactionaryhistorian on 2016-06-24.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence before year end. ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will run as a third party/independent if he does not win the Democratic Nomination. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Faceh on 2016-02-20; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Faceh on 2016-07-12.
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The 2016 Iowa GOP Caucus result does not get overturned/revised such that Trump takes first place. ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-05; known on 2016-09-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-16.
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I will go to Colorado in March 2016 ( 99% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-04-01.
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I will submit the 7th DAND project by EOD 3/13 ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-03-14; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-03-15.
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I will submit the sixth DAND project by EOD 2/28 ( 67% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-29; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.
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I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/28 ( 67% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-29.
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I will submit the fifth DAND project by EOD 2/21 ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-22; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-29.
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I will submit the fourth DAND project by EOD 2/14 ( 75% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-15; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-15.
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I will submit the 3rd DAND project by the end of next weekend ( 80% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-02-08; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-02-08.
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Carly Fiorina will be the next President-elect ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-30; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-11.
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I will finish the 4th data munging problem set today ( 60% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-29; known on 2016-01-30; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-30.
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Most babies born in 2022 do not have Zika virus. ( 99% confidence; 23 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-29; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
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Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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US will not get involved in any new major war with death toll of > 100 US soldiers 2016 ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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I'll finish the third data munging problem set this evening ( 70% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-25; known on 2016-01-26; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-01-26.
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Cultured meat will outsell traditional meat in the US by 2050 ( 29% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RoryS on 2016-01-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Donald Trump will win the 2016 Republican Primary in New Hampshire. ( 58% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-10.
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Ted Cruz will win the 2016 Republican Caucus in Iowa ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-02-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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Any EU member state declares war against other EU member state during this prediction. (wars from archives don't count, has to be new declaration of war) ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2016-01-15; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-01.
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Malheur will no longer be occupied by armed insurgents by the end of the month. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-08; known on 2016-01-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-02-11.
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I will get an interview for the job I applied for. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by ioannes on 2016-03-01.
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I will submit my job application by its deadline. ( 90% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2016-01-04; known on 2016-01-07; judged right by ioannes on 2016-01-06.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected president. ( 61% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by taylorcp on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.