Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 86% | 64% | 50% | 72% | 97% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 22 | 33 | 24 | 18 | 30 | 2 | 129 |
Displaying all predictions made by penten. Filter by:
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The number of content pages on the English Wikipedia, as reported at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special:Statistics, will reach 5.5 million on or before January 1, 2018. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-27.
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The next iPhone number will be 10, skipping 8 & 9. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-11-26; known on 2018-05-26; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2018-05-26.
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2017 will be the hottest year on record. ( 52% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2018-02-02.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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A nuclear weapon will be detonated in a non-test scenario before November 2020. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by trishume on 2016-11-10; known on 2020-11-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-11-16.
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There will be one or more assassination attempts (successful or not) against Donald Trump during his first term as POTUS. ( 47% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-11-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Trump's approval rating to below 30% by end of first year in office. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-20.
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S is induced ( 50% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by penten on 2016-11-16.
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We decide to change S's name in the next month ( 10% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
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We will buy more clothes for S within a month ( 70% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged wrong by penten on 2016-12-09.
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I will judge myself to be “very happy” next wednesday ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-16.
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homosexuality criminalized in the US ( 2% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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US presidents term limits abolished ( 2% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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At least one “faithless elector” in the 2016 U.S. Electoral College. ( 66% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-11-07; known on 2017-01-12; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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Instapaper has shut down by end 2017 ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-11-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2018-01-02.
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S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.
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LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2019-01-02.
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zcash price is below 1 BTC ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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zcash price is below 0.4 BTC ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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github still exists ( 30% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-30; known on 2030-12-31.
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I am still working at the same company as I was when making this prediction. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-20; known on 2017-10-20; judged right by penten on 2017-10-20.
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I tracked our spending between 11th Feb 2017 and 4th March 2017 AND it is within 1000gbp ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-03-05; judged wrong by penten on 2017-03-06.
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I make more than 500gbp in non-work income by the end of the year ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-19.
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S born after 1st November ( 60% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by penten on 2016-12-01.
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S born before 1st November ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-11-02.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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This BOE reference interest rate will be 0.5% or below at the end of 2017 ( 40% confidence )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by penten on 2018-01-02.
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It will be necessary for EU citizens (not previously resident in the UK) to apply for a visa to enter the UK (for both travel and to work) within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by penten on 2016-10-10; known on 2019-10-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-10-10.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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On 2017-06-01, Bitcoin is still the cryptocurrency with the highest market cap ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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Read 45 or more books this year ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2017-01-01.
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Hillary next US president ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-09-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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The “Steamboat Willie” cartoon featuring Mickey Mouse will enter the public domain in 2023 or earlier ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2016-09-12; known on 2024-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2021-06-01.
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2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.
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Donald Trump will be the last president of a unified United States of America, or be assassinated, dethroned, or impeached while in office. ( 13% confidence; 26 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-09; known on 2024-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-20.
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Scientific consensus that EM drive works in 5 years. ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-05-01.
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By 2065, a majority of the world will be vegan. ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-12; known on 2065-01-01.
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Self-driving cars will replace human drivers on public road in at least one country before 2024. ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-24; known on 2023-12-31.
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There will be no religion in 100 years. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2114-08-13.
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The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.
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Information recorded in the predictionbook will be practically retrievable “in ten thousand years, or so” ( 19% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-01-09; known on 9999-01-01.
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Synthetic meat will be mass-marketed by 2020. ( 26% confidence; 15 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.