Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 46% | 56% | 73% | 84% | 96% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 65 | 142 | 115 | 87 | 78 | 6 | 493 |
Displaying all predictions made by Patrick Brinich-Langlois. Filter by:
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Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
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Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump will be the next elected President ( 90% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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I will not become paraplegic or otherwise significantly paralyzed within the next year. ( 98% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-03; known on 2015-08-03; judged right by Ham Nox on 2015-08-03.
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“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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The NYT, WSJ, or The Economist will run an article claiming that Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 has been found (intact or not) before 2015. ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-03-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by mad on 2015-01-03.
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MH370 confirmed as landed on a runway anywhere in the world. ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by procran on 2014-03-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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a ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-06-16.
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Tomorrow will be a better day than today ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-03-05; known on 2014-03-06; judged right by reesarose on 2014-03-06.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Bitcoin will drop in value over next week ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jedijuggler on 2014-02-28; known on 2014-03-07; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-03-09.
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Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
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An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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This year will DEFINITELY BE BETTER than the previous year. Last year really sucked. Please guys, work to make this real! Work to make this year RULE! ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Pandster on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-11-16; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Gangnam Style (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9bZkp7q19f0) will have 2 billion views by the end of 2014. ( 82% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-06-08.
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Skillshare.im will have active users. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-19; known on 2016-01-19; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2016-01-20.
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I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Satoshi nakamoto will be Time’s Person of the Year 2014. http://lightspeedindia.wordpress.com/2014/01/13/bitcoin-2014-top-10-predictions/ ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2015-06-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-03-19.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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A cryptocurrency that could have been created by http://coingen.bluematt.me/ achives market cap > 50% of bitcoin's in the next year. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2014-01-06; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-06.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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You know what's hip if you know the name Peter Singer in 2150. People know his name now (2013) but he will be a Descartes, a Newton come 2150. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2150-01-01.
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An Anti-Specieist World by 2150. Animal Exploitation will be a thing of the past, old blatant discrimination no longer accepted and the reduction of wild animal suffering a real task. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2150-01-01.
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“Bitcoin will trade for under $10 a share by the first half of 2014.” — Mark T. Williams (http://www.businessinsider.com/williams-bitcoin-meltdown-10-2013-12) ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-12-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-07-01.
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There will be a population boom in arctic communities in the next hundred years. ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-12-16; known on 2113-12-16.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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“200 million [Ubuntu] users by 2015” -Shuttleworth's goal ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-04; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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I will not look at porn from now until January 1, 2015. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-06.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.
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Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
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As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.
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In 25 years, infanticide will be legal in at least one U.S. state. ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2013-04-04; known on 2038-04-04.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Supremes make same-sex marriage law of the land. ( 38% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-01-01.