Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Night 4: pill was Vitamin D ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-04.
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Ron Paul will win the Iowa Caucus. ( 39% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2012-01-04.
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Kunikida (from Haruhi) is written country-tree-field. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.
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Taniguchi (from Haruhi) is written valley-mouth. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by faws on 2012-01-04.
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'Hewlett-Packard will buy SAP' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Yahoo CEO Carol Bartz will go.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Facebook will pass 1 billion users.' in 2011 —Chris O'Brien ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-26; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Asif Ali Zardari will cease to be president of Pakistan during 2011 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Puella Magi Madoka Magica will win a Nihon Taisho SF award ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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'Fox sells off Myspace for LESS than it bought it for' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 10% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Subversion will not be released by 2011. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-24; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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50-100 US municipal debt defaults by 2012. —Meredith Whitney ( 30% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto's Evangelion manga will be finished sometime in 2011 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-03; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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“125 or more US banks to fail during 2011” —Intrade ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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I have heard Life before. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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'Kimi ni aeta Yokatta' is from one of the Slayers series. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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'Sakura saku' is the first Love Hina OP. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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Night 3: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-03; known on 2012-01-03; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-03.
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Share will download one of the files I'm looking for tomorrow. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-04; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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gwern will make a prediction on PredictionBook any time during 2012 (UTC) ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-03.
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Civil conflict will break out in the US by the end of 2011. ( 12% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by max on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'The first Youtube millionaire emerges' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Twitter hits 200M users' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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Wikileaks will release the AES key to their insurance file in 2011 ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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“22 nanometer chips are in mass production” during 2011 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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No Facebook IPO in 2011 —Ben Parr ( 89% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-03.
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'Bre Pettis will appear on the cover of Bloomberg Businessweek magazine in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'Despite media hysterics as to its imminent demise the current coalition of parties in government in Australia will remain in power. (70%)' —luminosity ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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Cannabis will be legalised within Australia by 2012 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by d403 on 2010-02-28; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'A distributed naming system for Web/broadcast content will gain substantial mindshare and measurable US usage after the trifecta of attacks on Wikileaks DNS, COICA, and further attacks on privacy-preserving or anonymous registration in the ICANN-sponsore ( 15% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-02-14; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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WTI Oil front month (96 US$ today) will go lower and reach 50 US$ by the end of 2012 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by herb on 2011-11-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-12-31.
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Night 2: pill was Vitamin D. ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.
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The Dow Jones Industrial Average* will finish 2011 below 12.000 points *high (close) in 2011 12.810 & low (close) in 2011 10.655 ( 55% confidence )
Created by herb on 2011-12-01; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by herb on 2012-01-02.
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送る is pronounced そうる ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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切り取り is pronounced きりとり ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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完全 is pronounced かんぜん ( 80% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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最近 is pronounced さいきん ( 90% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Will change Windows' display language to Japanese today. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-03; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Copying the ja-jp registry key from my laptop to my PC and deleting the en-us key will change my PC's display language to Japanese. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Manual install will work on my laptop. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Manual install will work on my PC. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Fix 50528 fixed the problem. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Repairing .NET client profile will fix the error. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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' No circuit lower bound of {{1000n}} or better will be proved for SAT.' in 2011 —Lipton ( 93% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-27; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02.
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Trying to install the Japanese language pack produces an error (again). ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-02; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-02.
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Madonna's new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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“bre Pettis is profiled in the New Yorker.” —Joris Peels ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
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'Adobe will buy Autodesk in 2011.' —Joris Peels ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.
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Before 2012 Apple will (start to) phase out the CD/DVD drives from all it's MacBooks. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-10-16; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-02.