Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 33% | 0% | 75% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
Displaying all predictions made by halfwaytogallifrey. Filter by:
-
BTC hits $100 within the year ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-03-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-04-01.
-
Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
-
Marc Ouellet will be the next Pope. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by simplicio on 2013-03-13.
-
There will be a new book review on FraVerus.com by the end of March 15th. ( 50% confidence )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-03-16.
-
Regardless of the outcome of the Dorner manhunt, drones will be praised for their value in said manhunt by at least one news outlet monitored by the Pew Research Center's Project for Excellence in Journalism within one year of today. ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by halfwaytogallifrey on 2014-02-11.
-
Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2028-02-11.
-
China and Japan will engage in armed conflict with each other resulting in > 1,000 deaths before 2023. ( 7% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-02-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2023-01-02.
-
Voice recognition software will be capable of replacing the average court stenographer in five years. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-02-02; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2018-02-01.
-
Mencius Moldbug: Bitcoin <10 cents by end of 2013. ( 7% confidence; 26 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-01-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
-
'the countries of Iceland, Macedonia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and Serbia have all joined the ranks of the EU member nations' by 2018 ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.