Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I have heard 'raging waves' before. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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Tomorrow morning, I will have negative karma on LessWrong. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-09.
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Joseph is at Elizabeth's apartment ( 40% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2012-01-08.
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'The removal of DADT by the US military will result in fewer than 300 soldiers leaving the military in protest.' —JoshuaZ ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-08.
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Someone from the IAI will ring me up on the day of the President's speech. The call will be regarding my non-attendance. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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'Facebook credits expand beyond facebook' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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'WordPress ecosystem grows up' in 2011 —Brian Breslin ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-12-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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Night 8: pill was Vitamin D ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-08.
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Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one amusing hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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Googling 'real websites' will throw up at least one bizarre hit or autocomplete. (only first-page hits count) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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I will enjoy this random youtube thing. ( 20% confidence )
Created by yurifury on 2012-01-08; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by yurifury on 2012-01-08.
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Won't have broadband tomorrow morning. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-08.
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“Dec 2011 unemployment rate to be 9.4% or higher” —Intrade ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.
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Night 7: pill was Vitamin D ( 35% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-07.
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Will try out Trello today. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-08; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Will have changed Windows' display language to Japanese by Sunday. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-08; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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I will brainstorm ideas for anything for the first 5-10 minutes after I wake up in the mornings, and record them all. I will do this every day for at least 1 month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by divad12 on 2011-11-15; known on 2011-12-15; judged right by divad12 on 2012-01-07.
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Reading my classmates’ public argument on Facebook will amuse me greatly ( 20% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Reading my classmates' public argument on Facebook will amuse me moderately. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Electronics project due Wednesday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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Stats assignment for today will include χ^2 or student's-t distributions. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-07; known on 2012-01-07; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-07.
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I will go to school tomorrow and friday. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-06.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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Australian refugees will be processed through Nauru again by the end of 2011. ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DavidPercival on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-06.
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Night 6: pill was Vitamin D ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-06.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 5-8 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 3-5 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release >=9 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 4% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Yoshiyuki Sadamoto will release 0-2 stages of the Evangelion manga in 2011 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-03-02; known on 2012-01-10; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Will have completed the maths FAC for ACET by Saturday. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-01-07; judged right by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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'Ame Nochi Kumochi Nochi Hare' was the theme song of one of the 'Aa Megamisama' animes/OVAs. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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No contact with intelligent aliens be made in 2012 ( 96% confidence; 31 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
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“There will be a major war, starting in the Middle East. Israel will lose (75%). China will probably join in on the radical-Muslim side. Iran will try to use its nukes but they will be duds. Israel will not use theirs…” —jdgalt ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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I will have stopped wasting time on Omegle by 2:30. (It's 1:25 now.) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-06; known on 2012-01-06; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-06.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 7 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.
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“NZ Government to announce before 2012 it will waive visitor visa requirement for China passport holders” -ipredict ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-06.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be among five warmest years on record” —Intrade ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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“Average Global Temperature for 2011 to be the warmest on record” —Intrade ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-15; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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Bebo.com sold by Criterion Capital Partners in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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MySpace is sold by Fox News Corp in 2011. —Ben Parr ( 20% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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The US Mint has resumed printing $2 bills since I checked in 2005 (thus explaining the new-looking $2 I received as change at IFC). ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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The IFC Center will detect me sneaking into the second movie & kick me out. ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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Night 5: pill was vitamin D. ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-05.
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I will continue wasting time on Omegle until 8 PM. (It's 5 PM now.) ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-05; known on 2012-01-05; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2012-01-05.
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I will not open facebook between now and midnight. ( 100% confidence )
Created by ahartell on 2012-01-04; known on 2012-01-05; judged right by ahartell on 2012-01-05.
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The Bitcoin price will hit 6 $/฿ in January 2012 UTC. ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mqrius on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-05.
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I will burn any kind of optical disc between 2012-01-01 00:00 UTC and 2013-01-01 00:00 UTC ( 89% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-04.