Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Trump publicly and seriously offers VP position to Bernie Sanders and/or chooses Bernie Sanders as VP ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Craig Wright will prove he is Satoshi Nakamoto, where proof is defined as: Movement of Bitcoins from first 11 blocks OR signing a statement with key from block 0, mentioning Craig Wright by name ( 7% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mrmrpotatohead on 2016-05-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Bernie Sanders will win 60-70% of the California primary vote ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by docskalski on 2016-05-04; known on 2016-06-08; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-08.
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Sometime in 2020, Satoshi Nakamoto's bitcoins suddenly start to move again, having not moved until 2020. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
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Trump wins Indiana ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-02; known on 2016-05-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-05-04.
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Civil War in Venezuela ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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If TRUMP gets 1237 before convention the GOP elites will do a news conference with somber tone explaining why with all the dangers our country faces they can not in good judgement allow him to be the nominee and deny him the nomination ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by julietales22 on 2016-05-01; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-07-16.
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A supernova in the Miky Way will first be detected by it's neutrino and gravitational wave emission, prior to it's brightening allowing observation by optical telescopes. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by AdamSmith on 2016-04-30; known on 2025-01-01.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2021 ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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SpaceX will launch a Mars orbit or flyby mission before 2019. ( 36% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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First physical sample returned from a Near Earth Asteroid. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2025-06-22.
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More than 50% of all passenger cars on the road are completely autonomous, self-driving vehicles. ( 21% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2024-12-31.
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A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.
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Paul Ryan faces the democratic nominee in the 2016 US presidential election. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-20; known on 2016-07-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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“President HRC will face an attempt by a Republican Congress to cut her pay.” ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-19; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by NickN on 2020-08-21.
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1 year continuous human habitation of the moon ( 17% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-18; known on 2025-06-22.
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US Newspaperocalypse ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Civil war in Saudi Arabia ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-31.
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Texas votes Democratic in 2016 presidential election. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-04-14; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-02.
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2016 New York Democratic Primary isn't a blowout (i.e. margin of victory is < 15%) ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-14; known on 2016-04-21; judged wrong by ioannes on 2016-04-21.
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Clathrate gun fires ( rapid ( 1 C / year or more ) increase in global mean temp for 5 years attributed to clathrate methane deposit release) ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-13; known on 2040-01-01.
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Kim Jung Un ousted, assassinated, or somehow loses power of North Korea, either internally or from some international influence ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will the Republican and Democratic parties combined have less than 96% of members of each of the House, Senate, governors and control of legislative chambers (non-partisan ones excluded). ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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Kasich does not become the Republican nominee ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-10; known on 2016-08-16; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-21.
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Until the end of 2037, at no point in time will a person elected or otherwise selected by a political party, other than the Republican and Democratic parties, hold the office of President of the United States. ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2037-12-31.
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The Libertarian Party presidential candidate will get less than 2% of the national popular vote in November. ( 41% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2016-04-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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David Cameron will resign as PM due to the Panama Papers scandal in the next two weeks. ( 5% confidence; 21 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-04-08; known on 2016-04-22; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-04-22.
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Conditional on the Panama Papers being leaked by a US Govt operation, the primary reason for the leak would be to show ordinary Russians the sheer corruption within the Power Vertical. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-07; known on 2066-04-07.
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Trump wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hilary wins New York primary ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-04-06; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Ted Cruz to gain a majority of the delegates from the Wisconsin primary. ( 84% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-06; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-06.
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Donald Trumps Wins New York Republican Primary 2016 ( 96% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-20.
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Hillary Clinton Wins New York Democratic Primary 2016 ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-05; known on 2016-04-20; judged right by jesselevine on 2016-04-20.
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Within fifty (50) years, what is today known as the Panama Papers will be generally agreed upon to have been leaked by a US Govt operation. Similar to how the NYTimes says (but both governments deny) that Stuxnet was a joint US/Israel operation. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-04-04; known on 2066-04-05.
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Ted Cruz will be linked to a sex scandal before year end. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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It will be exposed that a current presidential candidate was involved in a sex scandal by year end. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-04-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Osuniev on 2016-11-21.
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SpaceX to successfully land the first stage on a droneship in the CRS-8 launch. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-01; known on 2016-04-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-08.
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Utah will go to somebody other than the GOP nominee in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-30; known on 2016-12-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The lack of magical twins in the School in Magic series will end up being a plot point in the next book. ( 55% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.
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IRNSS satellite navigation constellation will be complete by July. 6/7 Satellites already launched. ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27; known on 2016-07-16; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-05-06.
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A male friend of mine will marry a woman, only to have it revealed later that she's transitioning to being a man ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-25; known on 2023-01-01.
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Tablet market continues to decline for at least 2 of the next 4 fiscal quarters. ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2017-03-25.
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Trump names his running mate before GOP convention. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-11-16; judged right by NathanMcKnight on 2016-07-17.
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House of Representatives selects next POTUS. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-24; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-16.
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LambdaConf will uninvite Curtis Yarvin before the conference begins ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-24; known on 2016-05-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-24.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2023 ( 68% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2023-01-01.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a non-tenure track lecture position before April 2. ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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UMaine Machias will offer me a tenure track position before April 2. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-04-03; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-04-03.
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AI to beat at least one of the ten top-ranked humans in Starcraft Brood War by January 1, 2019 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by end of 2017 ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by January 15, 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-16.
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Falcon Heavy test flight by November 30, 2016 ( 32% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-12-01.
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Sydney from Grrlpower will get another level-up before March 22, 2017 (real time). ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-23; known on 2017-03-23; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-03-23.
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If nominated, Trump will win zero electoral votes. ( 5% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-22; known on 2017-02-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.
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Alibaba will surpass Walmart as world's No1 retailer measured in gross merchandise volume. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-22; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-04-26.
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In 2019, I’ll be able to get a pizza delivered to my house by a robot. ( 38% confidence; 15 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-21.
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For snow-related reasons I will be told to work from home on Monday. ( 88% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2016-03-21; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-21.
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USA economy's long-run rate of growth of per-capita real GDP over the next 25 years will be 0.9% due to demography, education, inequality, and the federal debt —Robert J Gordon Stanley G. Harris Professor,Social Sciences Northwestern University. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-19; known on 2041-12-25.
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Martin Shkreli convicted of a US crime before 2018. ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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John Kasich will win the Republican nomination for President ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2016-03-16; known on 2016-08-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.
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Donald Trump sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-17.
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Bernie Sanders sweeps the table tonight (Tuesday 3-15) ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-03-16.
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World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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AlphaGo will win the 5th match against Lee Sedol ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-13; known on 2016-03-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Vancouver power grid does not have a crisis in summer 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-30.
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Lee Sedol attempts suicide ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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By 2025, China's yuan will be backed by gold. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-03-11; known on 2025-01-01.
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AlphaGo will beat any human it plays for the next 2 years(no handicap games). ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-13.
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I will not get SJS from modafinil ( 95% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-03-10; known on 2017-10-03; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-01-22.
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Hillary Clinton will win the democratic nomination ( 88% confidence; 30 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-07-26; judged right by grogo on 2016-07-26.
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Alphago will win over Lee Sedol at least 4-1 ( 81% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sole21000 on 2016-03-09; known on 2016-03-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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Romney is GOP nominee. ( 2% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Romney runs third party. ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Snokes is not Darth Plegueia ( 95% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by moridinamael on 2018-08-13.
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UNSONG was created to control the spread of names (in the same way we might want to restrict anthrax or AI research) ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-03-07; known on 2025-01-01.
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Worldwide capacity of rooftop, building-integrated and local PV soar from 104GW in 2014 to nearly 1.8TW in 2040, a 17-fold increase. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2040-12-25.
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Seb Henbest, Bloomberg New Energy Finance: “The CO² content of the atmosphere is on course to exceed 450 parts per million by 2035". The world will fail to keep temperature rise below 2 °C. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2035-12-25.
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Supreme Court strikes down Texas abortion law. ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2017-01-01.
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Trump Republicans split from GOP to start a third party. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.
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North American oil industry will collapse. Rig count will fall to zero. ( 7% confidence; 29 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-25.
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US mandates backdoors in all crypto used on continental US ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Costa Rica, Brasil, Mauritius will be high income countries (World Bank definition) by 2020. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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Malaysia will be a high income country by 2020. ( 77% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-03; known on 2020-12-25.
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Christie disavows support for Donald Trump before the election. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Trump selects Christie as his running mate. ( 19% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-15.
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Cabinet appointment for Bernie Sanders. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-02; judged wrong by ospond on 2017-03-06.
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> 0.77% of global energy produced from solar (thermal or electricity both count) ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2017-03-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-08.
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Gender divide in 2016 election to be greater than that in 2012 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-03-01; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-01-05.
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Exactly two candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Exactly three candidates will get greater than 10% of the popular vote in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by HonoreDB on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Bernie will drop out before California primary. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-06-07; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2016-06-08.
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Bernie will drop out before New York primary. ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-19; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2016-04-19.
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Bernie will drop out before Ohio & Florida primaries. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2016-03-16.
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Kasich will drop out of the republican primary race before March 3rd ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by silacoid on 2016-03-03.
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SpaceX to successfully launch SES satellite by April 1, 2016 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-29; known on 2016-04-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-05.
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The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000, but David Sirlin will throw in the white and purple tokens anyway. ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-04; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.
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The Codex Kickstarter will not raise $250,000. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-02-28; known on 2016-03-03; judged wrong by Sniffnoy on 2016-03-01.
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At least one person will take offense to one of our 22nd century protest signs. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-27; known on 2016-04-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-24.
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Facebook will either remove the negative-valence expanded reaction buttons, or in some way allow people to de-activate the option for their own posts, by the end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2016-02-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.