Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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I will finish reading and doing representative problems from chapters 1-4 of Ideals, Varieties, and Algorithms by David Cox by the midterm on 10/29/2014. (I started 10/16/2014) ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-16; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-29.
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50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today ( 55% confidence )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29.
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The meeting tomorrow is at the time I think it is. ( 80% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28.
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C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) will hit Mars ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-03-02; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-10-28.
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My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.
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I will do >10 pomos today. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27.
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I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will do less than 5 pomos today. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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I will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today. ( 70% confidence )
Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.
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Tuxedage's crush will agree to date him, but he later won't really feel like he's dating her. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Betawolf on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-24; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.
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When I test the effect of caffeine consumption on sleep quality, I will find a significant effect for 1 can of coke (32mg) regardless of time of day of consumption. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nsavir on 2014-04-24; known on 2014-09-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2014-10-25.
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There won't be any questions about street harassment in the 2014 Less Wrong survey. ( 97% confidence )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-01-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by kuudes on 2014-10-25.
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I will go to N's thing tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-25; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25.
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HP MoR: That Bellatrix is Black not Lestrange will be important. ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-03-06; known on 2014-10-16; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #15: The endowment given on Wikipedia for the endowment of the University of Bath is greater than or equal to £317.2 million. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #14: Wikipedia: Electron discovered by or on 31st December 1923 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia) ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #13: An 'English' mile, to four decimal places, is 1.6034km (Wikipedia) ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #12: Eliezer born in 1979 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #12: Eliezer born in 1979 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #11: The battery amount given on Wikipedia in the infobox for the Samsung Galaxy S3 is greater or equal to 3700mAh ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #10: The UK infant mortality rate is less than or equal to 1.36 per 1000 according to the CIA World Factbook ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #9: The earliest edit on the Wikipedia article for sudoku was on or before 1st January 2005 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #8: Elizabeth II was born in 1926 ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #7: The Young's modulus of steel given in the infobox on Wikipedia is less than or equal to 140GPa ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #6: The number of letters in the Cyrillic alphabet is less than or equal to 30 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #5: Virginia Woolf's lifespan is less than or equal to 45 years going by calendar ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The highest figure give on the Wikipedia article in the infobox for the length of the Nile is less than or equal to 3100.9km ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #3: An even number of elements have been found/synthesised ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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The density of water under standard conditions is >=1kg per litre ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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Bath #1 Wladimir Klitchsko's mass is <= 110kg ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-19; known on 2014-10-19; judged right by Jackercrack on 2014-10-21.
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My current character in ToME (a dwarf berserker in normal difficulty roguelike mode) will make it to level 20. ( 20% confidence )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-20; known on 2014-10-27; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-21.