Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 33% | 69% | 61% | 71% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 9 | 62 | 89 | 111 | 141 | 16 | 428 |
Displaying all predictions made by Medea. Filter by:
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aliens invade earth in 2023 ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2023-12-31.
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Software engineer salaries in the United States are going to plummet to the average of the global work force within the next 24 months ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-04-23; known on 2025-05-15.
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Earth's magnetic poles reverse by 2047. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-13; known on 2047-01-01.
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People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Artificial intelligence radically disrupts the global economy within 2 years ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by sjy on 2023-03-28; known on 2025-04-01.
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TikTok is banned from Android and Apple app stores in the US by 2024 ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-03-28; known on 2024-01-01; judged unknown by GeoffR on 2023-04-03.
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Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.
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Elon Musk steps down as CEO of Tesla ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-02-27; known on 2024-01-01.
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China will attempt an invasion of Taiwan by the end of 2025. ( 20% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2021-04-09; known on 2025-12-31.
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Marijuana will be unscheduled, taxed and regulated similar to alcohol at a federal level in the United States before 2025. ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-01-01; known on 2025-01-02.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.
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Human extinction caused by AI before my 50th birthday. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2043-10-10.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.
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By January 1, 2031, large-language models combined with automated proof checking systems like Lean and Coq will have contributed to proofs which have appeared in major math journals. ( 53% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.
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Twitter will be online on the 15th of December 2022. On that date, I will be able to post a tweet and other people will be able to see it. ( 89% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by danielfilan on 2022-11-18; known on 2022-12-15; judged right by danielfilan on 2022-12-15.
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Binance goes bankrupt ( 49% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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Joe Biden will be the Democratic Presidential nominee in 2024 ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by firaskanaan on 2022-11-16; known on 2024-03-16.
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[Humans will understand human-level intelligence… (Richard Sutton: The Future of Artificial Intelligence Belongs to Search and Learning)] by 2030 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YuxiLiu on 2022-10-26; known on 2041-01-01.
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PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.
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Lab grown meat will become the primary source of global meat production by 2060 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jewstinbeac on 2022-09-02; known on 2060-01-01.
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At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2025 ( 96% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2025-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.
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Hikvision sanctioned by US Government ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-06-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-11-26.
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Vladimir Putin become a defendant in the International Criminal Court before 2023 ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-20; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-01.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon will not become premier ministre of France in 2022. ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-05-13; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-11-21.
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large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.
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A bill legalizing marijuana in the US at the federal level is signed into law by 2023. ( 24% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Éric Zemmour obtiendra un score supérieur à celui de Marine le Pen au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-02-14; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by 0uGiL on 2022-04-17.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-04-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-18.
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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NFTs will reach mass adoption, but they will also create new layers of financial regulations, and will probably create a financial crash by 2024, where most victims will be from 3rd world countries. ( 16% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04; known on 2024-01-01.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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There will be no more lockdown due to Covid in Paris before the end of 2022. ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-27; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2023-01-02.
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At least one large website (alexa 10k) or fortune-500 company's services will be disrupted by the Y38 problem ( 50% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-09-22; known on 2038-01-21.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
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Copyright of at least one of the depictions of Mickey Mouse will be extended beyond the current deadline of January 1, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.
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Open AI will announce a new language model at least 100x bigger than GPT-3 (175Gb) in number of parameters before the end of 2022 ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by razcle on 2021-07-21; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
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At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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Donald Trump starts a new political party before the end of 2024 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-04-05; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by n99 on 2022-10-28.
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SpaceX to land a version of Starship on Mars by the end of 2026. ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-24; known on 2027-01-01.
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humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.
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Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.
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Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
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By July 2021, China will invade Taiwan. The invasion will take longer than anticipated and as a result China will use biological weapons. The USA and EU will do nothing. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Random on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-07-31; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-07-31.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump attempts to issue a pardon for himself before the end of the 20th of January 2021. ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-01-21; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-01-21.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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Politics, US – Trump wins a majority of the electoral college votes before February 2021. ( 2% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-11-10; known on 2021-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Trump will run for president in 2024 ( 23% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-06; known on 2024-06-30.
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The phosphine detected on Venus is widely agreed among the scientific community to be from life. ( 2% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Deepak on 2020-09-16; known on 2025-09-16.
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PRC troops will be on the ground in California by 31 December 2030. ( 9% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by najdorf on 2020-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Humans on Mars by August 30, 2045 ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30; known on 2045-08-30.
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Nous continuons la traditions des week-end en ville ( 90% confidence )
Created by Medea on 2020-07-09; known on 2025-07-09.
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Trump to comment on Kanye's presidential bid ( 58% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-05; known on 2020-08-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-07-11.
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At the end of the year, all SlateStarCodex archives are rehosted by Scott on SlateStarCodex or some other site (third-party created archives don't count) AND Scott has written at least one new post on SlateStarCodex or this new site ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by peter_hurford on 2020-06-24; known on 2021-01-02; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2021-01-03.
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North Korea invades South Korea before the end of 2020 ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.
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Business, US – By deadline, news has come out to the effect that Elon Musk's baby is not legally named “X Æ A-12”. This includes but is not limited to statements by either Elon Musk or Grimes to that effect, even if later contradicted again. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-05-06; known on 2020-07-06; judged right by JohnGreer on 2020-05-25.
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Donald Trump will be elected president in the 2020 presidential elections. ( 50% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by korakos on 2020-04-30; known on 2020-11-05; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-11-07.
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Nicotine will be found to help fight coronavirus ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by evand on 2020-04-26; known on 2021-04-26; judged wrong by evand on 2021-04-26.
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There will be a flood of positive news stories about Hydroxychloroquin the week after the presidential election ( 15% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jgvergo on 2020-04-23; known on 2020-11-10; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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EPA finalizes a change to how air pollution deaths are calculated, and this change results in a decrease in the number of estimated deaths ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2019-05-21; known on 2020-01-01.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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[Scottish independence referendum to have been formally announced & scheduled, conditional on] no-deal Brexit having taken place ( 35% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-24; known on 2020-03-15.
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A hole will be drilled down to Earth's mantle by 2090. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2090-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 100 million ( 0% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 50 million ( 1% confidence; 34 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10 million ( 8% confidence; 36 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 5 million ( 12% confidence; 34 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 1 million ( 40% confidence; 45 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2020-11-09.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 500,000 ( 44% confidence; 46 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-06-29.
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[By the end of 2020, the confirmed death toll by the Wuhan Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) will be over] 10,000 ( 56% confidence; 45 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by nortriptyline2 on 2020-01-22; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2020-03-20.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Donald Trump will NOT be re-elected ( 55% confidence; 26 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tcsmithbiz@yahoo.com on 2019-12-23; known on 2020-11-04; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2020-11-07.
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Bitcoin's price will be above $10,000 on May 1, 2020 (at midnight). ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2019-10-20; known on 2020-05-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2020-05-01.
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Reddit is blocked in the PRC as of 2020-10-29 ( 89% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-10-29; judged right by Cato on 2020-11-02.