Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Germany will not reach the proclaimed goal of 30 medals at the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ir88 on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by ir88 on 2014-02-24.
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Rousey beats McMann by first round armbar in UFC 170 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.
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Rousey beats McMann by armbar in UFC170 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged wrong by mad on 2014-02-23.
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Rousey defeats McMann in UFC170 ( 95% confidence )
Created by mad on 2014-02-06; known on 2014-02-24; judged right by mad on 2014-02-23.
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Jacob Wilson wins Pro Tour: Born of the Gods. ( 70% confidence )
Created by ygert on 2014-02-23; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-23.
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i will see bf this week (hopefully) ( 40% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-23.
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[KILL la KILL] Ira Gamagoori will betray Kiryuin Satsuki, or join Matoi Ryuko's side, or both, by the end of the series ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2014-02-04; known on 2014-10-16; judged right by Grognor on 2014-02-22.
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I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
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The unflavored Pedialyte will not taste discernibly worse than the flavored Pedialyte when I try it. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-02-22; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-22.
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I will finish HPMOR by Friday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-20; known on 2014-02-22; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-22.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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Within one week, the LessWrong post “White Lies” will have 800 comments or more ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-02-15; known on 2014-02-22; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-21.
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I see Naswa on Thursday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-21; judged wrong by booradleytron on 2014-02-21.
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my sister will say something about the magazine I gave her ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-11; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-21.
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I will get to see my boyfriend Wednesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-20; judged wrong by reesarose on 2014-02-21.
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Conditional on competing in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics, Yuna Kim will win a gold medal ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-20.
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Conditional on the current MP4 RfC failing to gain consensus for use of the format, the WMF will enable uploading in MP4 anyway and be met with community outcry ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-02-18; judged wrong by Vulture on 2014-02-20.
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High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Merinnan on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by mad on 2014-02-20.
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Pizza-flavored Pringles contain milk ingredients. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19; known on 2014-02-20; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-02-19.
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Yuna Kim will compete in figure skating in the 2014 Winter Olympics ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28; known on 2014-02-23; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-19.
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my stomach will stop hurting by tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-19; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-19.
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I will finish chapter four of this book tonight ( 55% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-18; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.
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I will finish two chapters of reading today. ( 75% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-19; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-19.
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I will see Tegan by Monday. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-18; known on 2014-02-25; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-19.
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McCaleb will confirm Mtgox never actually sold Magic cards. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-02-17.
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I will go home before noon tomorrow. ( 5% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-16; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.
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I will go home before monday. ( 65% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16; known on 2014-02-17; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-17.
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I will go see my grandparents this weekend. ( 99% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by Mati on 2014-02-17.
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Within two years, there will be some mechanism for direct karma transfer implemented on Less Wrong. (Karma betting, karma bounties, or the like.) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-08-25; known on 2015-08-24; judged right by ygert on 2014-02-17.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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i will see bf 2maro ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.
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ill get to see my boyfriend tomorrow ( 50% confidence )
Created by reesarose on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by reesarose on 2014-02-17.
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We will have House Council tonight at 21:00. ( 90% confidence )
Created by booradleytron on 2014-02-17; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by booradleytron on 2014-02-17.
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This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-08.
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I will ask the girl I am seeing on friday to be my girlfriend by the end of the weekend. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-17; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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I will watch two or more video lectures tonight. ( 40% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged wrong by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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I will watching this movie by 9 (run time ~100min, imdb categorizes it as an action drama, rating between 7.7 and 8.1) ( 85% confidence )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-16.
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August was just joking that Barolo is a scam, and won't be able to recommend a great cheap alternative. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Benquo on 2014-02-15.
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CFAR will get a grant from the American Mathematical Society to fund SPARC 2014. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-02-15.
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I will not have a Valentine on Valentine's Day. ( 85% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-12; known on 2014-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.
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“When Apple announces a 27-inch or 30-inch Retina Display, you can bet it will have an integrated GPU.” —Robert X Cringely ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-23; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by procran on 2014-02-15.
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I will speak (using any nickname) more than 120 lines in #lesswrong before 2014-02-15 ( 0% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-15; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-15.
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When the Wikimedia Commons RfC on the MP4 format closes, the majority of the !votes will be against any use of the format ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vulture on 2014-01-20; known on 2014-02-14; judged right by Vulture on 2014-02-15.
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I will not to do handstand by myself in gymnastics today ( 80% confidence )
Created by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-13; known on 2014-02-13; judged right by captiancreeper19 on 2014-02-14.
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Adina and Baaboo will have dinner with Maxine and me tonight. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Benquo on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-02-10; judged right by Benquo on 2014-02-14.
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I will go to sleep before 5:00am. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-02-14.
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Pope Benedict XVI resigned for reasons other than his health, and this will be confirmed by reliable news sources. ( 18% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by stephenh on 2013-02-11; known on 2014-02-11; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-13.
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I will leave here by 11 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by reubensandwich on 2014-02-08; known on 2014-02-08; judged right by reubensandwich on 2014-02-12.