Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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Journalers of OkC will still exist, and will have no less than 90 members. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by xrisque on 2014-11-11; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by ren on 2016-06-16.
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I won't convert to Christianity within the next year ( 99% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-08; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.
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In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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The next government will be a coalition ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.
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There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2025-01-16.
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There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.
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I will visit New York City before the fifth of January ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-23; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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Proof of concept for axion-photon conversion as a basis for energy generation demonstrated experimentally, as published in at least one refereed physics journal. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2114-10-21.
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Detection of axions widely accepted in physics publications. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-20; known on 2024-10-20.
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Conditional on UKIP winning the Rochester byelection, Cameron faces an official leadership challenge within a month. ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-10-12; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06.
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Kim Jong-un is reported dead within 100 calendar days. ( 3% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asd on 2014-09-28; known on 2015-01-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-06.
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My ASUS X99 motherboard will burn out some component or otherwise suffer electrically-induced damaged, in the first 30 days of operation ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-09-21; known on 2014-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-10-27.
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I will only lose points on the Discrete Math midterm from today for arithmetic errors or not performing as much calculation as desired by the grader. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-21; known on 2013-11-11.
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Venezuela will undergo sovereign default before 2016. ( 8% confidence; 60 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-09-19; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-02.
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Conditional on Scotland voting yes, Cameron resigns within a month ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2014-10-15.
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A fight breaks out at my 20 year high school reunion over something that happened 20 years ago. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2014-10-19; judged wrong by Mike on 2014-10-19.
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Australia will see its first domestic, large scale “terror” attack within six months of becoming involved in the ISIS campaign. ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Mike on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-03-31; judged wrong by Mike on 2015-03-31.
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“The [ebola] case burden could gain an additional 77,181 to 277,124 cases by the end of 2014.” – Wired ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-09-15; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-12.
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The margin of victory in the scottish referendum is less than 1%. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-13; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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Cameron is still the leader of the Conservatives at the end of the year. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-10; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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An alive human has been on mars soil and returned to earth safely before year 2100. ( 57% confidence; 18 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by nshepperd on 2014-09-08; known on 2100-01-01.
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Islamic terrorist attack in the UK kills at least one this month. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-29; known on 2014-09-29; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-29.
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The current truce between Israel and Hamas will hold until at least January 15, 2015 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-08-27; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-15.
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I will publish the fanfic I am currently working on to either ff.net or Archive of Our Own by the end of the year. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Calien on 2014-08-19; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-04.
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Assange leaves the embassy within a year. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-08-18; known on 2015-08-18; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-18.
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The situation on Ukraine will turn into international conflict before end of 2014 and battles will be fought on Polish territory. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by TeMPOraL on 2014-08-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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Ebola doesn't cause more than 2500 deaths by the end of the year ( 39% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by minilodon on 2014-08-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by TeMPOraL on 2014-09-23.
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Bitcoin was an official NSA or CIA project. ( 1% confidence; 27 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-08-12; known on 2024-08-12.
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Hillary Clinton will be elected President in 2016. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-08-11; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.
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some portion of England and the United States will be unified as one country or similar state within 10 years ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-21; known on 2024-07-21.
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Luke turns, or has turned, to the Dark Side in Star Wars episode 7. ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HonoreDB on 2014-07-20; known on 2015-12-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.
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We will lose one of our past Presidents or First Lady (USA) this year after a prolonged illness. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2015-01-02.
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Edward Snowden to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-10-11.
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Vladimir Putin to be awarded the 2014 Nobel Peace Prize ( 1% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2014-10-10; judged wrong by qznc on 2014-10-10.
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Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Russia will gain de facto control of some portion of any of the Baltic states and hold it for more than a week before the end of the year. ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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“no matter how many scare headlines you read, ISIS will never take Baghdad” – The war nerd. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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Scott's next post will be whining about feminist responses to Elliot Rodgers. It will contain an epistemically weak response from some sort of manosphere type “for balance, because I do not trust my readers” but also a reassurance that feminism is the rea ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Oligopsony on 2014-05-26; known on 2014-05-29; judged wrong by etarletons on 2014-05-27.
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On Jan 1st the government in Kiev will be generally recognised as being in de facto control of all of 2013 Ukraine except for Crimea, which will be part of Russia de facto. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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White Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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My physics final was misgraded, or the grade was entered wrong. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by azax1 on 2014-05-23; known on 2014-05-30; judged wrong by azax1 on 2014-06-09.
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Conditional on the UK holding an in-out referendum on the EU before 7 May 2020 the winner will be OUT. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-09.
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Conservatives win most votes in the UK European Parliament Elections ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-05-22; known on 2014-05-26; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-05-26.
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Contingent on New Jersey repealing its smart gun law, within 1 year of that event, at least one law enforcement agency in the United States will buy smart guns. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-08; known on 2018-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-05-01.
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By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Over 70% of the respondents to the effective-altruist survey will be male. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 76% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by etarletons on 2015-03-18.
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Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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A Presidential election will occur in Ukraine by June 5th or a Russian invasion of Ukraine will occur. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-21; known on 2014-06-05; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-25.
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Presence of life in the past (or present) that doesn't originate from Earth will be discovered in the solar system before 2050. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-04; known on 2050-01-01.
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David Brin will respond to my comment on his Goodreads blogs within 7 days. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-02; known on 2014-04-09; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-04-14.
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An (other) astronomical object with a diameter bigger than Mercury will be discover in the Solar System before 2050. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-04-01; known on 2050-01-01.
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“By the end of the weekend, Europe’s biggest war since 1945 will have begun or Putin will have started to send the troops on the border home,” -John Schindler ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-03-28; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-04-01.
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There will be no direct “hot”/shooting military conflict between any of the US, France, Germany, the UK, and Russia in 2014 ( 94% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Benquo on 2014-03-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-01-02.
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Malaysia Airlines flight MH370 was struck by a meteorite causing rapid disintegration. Alternatively, aircraft lengthening redesign gave way causing rapid disintegration. ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-11; known on 2014-04-30; judged wrong by procran on 2014-05-05.
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An alive human from the Mars One organisation will have been on Mars before January 1st 2024. ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2014-03-09; known on 2024-01-01.
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HP MoR: Mr. Hat & Cloak is Baba Yaga ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by solipsist on 2014-02-27; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Most roads in the USA will not use speed limit units of miles per hour on January 1st 2040. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-24; known on 2040-01-01.
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By 2025 bitcoin will no longer be the highest traded cryptocurrency. ( 54% confidence; 42 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-10; known on 2025-01-01; judged unknown by lavalamp on 2014-08-21.
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HP MoR: The phrase “the very stars in heaven” in the prophecy refers to the Black family, as per http://lesswrong.com/r/discussion/lw/hvg/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/9ajh . ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by ygert on 2015-03-23.
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Scotland votes 'yes' for independence. ( 38% confidence; 24 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-31; known on 2014-09-19; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-09-19.
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No nuclear weapon used in anger in 2014. ( 98% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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Obama will remain President of USA at end of 2014. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Dec 1st of 2014 ( 28% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by on 2014-12-01.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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High Court will rule for a re-election of the WA Senate. ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Merinnan on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged right by mad on 2014-02-20.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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In HPMOR, Voldemort is/was at some point in the form of a disembodied spirit. ( 61% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by Unknowns on 2015-02-21.
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HP MoR: While the diamond was just transfigured from his father's rock, the ring itself was also transfigured from Hermione's remains or part thereof, thus getting past Dumbledore's scanning for transfigured objects that Harry may have had on his person ( 42% confidence; 28 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-08; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by tedks on 2015-02-28.
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HP MoR: Ravenclaw and Slytherin will both win the House Cup, because Hogwarts rules are unclear whether house points earned by students that have left Hogwarts should be counted. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ArisKatsaris on 2012-04-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2017-02-06.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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In HPMOR, it will turn out to be the case that Lockheart was at some point in the past (that is to say before the events of chapter 86) possessed by Voldemort's spirit. ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2012-12-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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Chelsea Manning will be be pardoned by the US government and undergo transgender surgery and become a popular advocate of free information in the US in the 2040s and 2050s ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2055-01-01.
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The world will be fully directly democratic by 2170! The world will be self-governed by it's people, probably nationless (definitely in culture, society and economics) but not a global state ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by deanmullen2014 on 2013-12-31; known on 2170-01-01.
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A leak or source from inside the NSA indicates that a surveillance program forbidden after today by the Supreme Court, another federal court, or act of congress has continued with little to no disruption ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by tedks on 2013-12-29; known on 2018-12-29; judged unknown by tedks on 2021-06-14.
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HP MoR: the general consensus among the Wizengamot and/or the populus of magical Britain in the wake of the events of chapters 88-90 will blame Lucius Malfoy for releasing the troll in Hogwarts as a means of getting revenge on Hermione. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-01-02.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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I will be accepted for a postdoc position by June 1 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-06-01.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least July 1, 2014 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-07-01.
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The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.
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I will not masturbate from now until January 1, 2015. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-30.
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By 2015, China will outlaw bitcoin, or otherwise do something to to make it impossible or very difficult to use bitcoin to evade their capital controls. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-11-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2015-01-02.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Family Guy will resurrect Brian ( 47% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Omid on 2013-11-26; known on 2023-03-01; judged right by adbge on 2013-12-17.
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Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Zerocoin functionality incorporated into Bitcoin within 5 years ( 29% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-11-22; known on 2018-11-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-11-23.
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The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The European Union will start raising Union-level taxes (similar to US' federal taxation) by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2013-11-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03.
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The title of OOTS #930 will be “The” or “The Rift”. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ygert on 2013-11-13; known on 2013-11-20; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-14.
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Intelligent lifeforms found on other planets by the end of the 2000s. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by HolmesSherlockHolmes on 2013-11-13; known on 3000-01-01.
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Russia will be an Islamic theocracy by 31 December 2050. ( 1% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-12; known on 2051-01-01.