Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NYTimes: Bill Keller will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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NYTimes: Charles Blow will make a (charitably) testable prediction in an article next week 10th-16th ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by William-Quixote on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by William-Quixote on 2012-09-20.
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DNB/nicotine day 16: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-20; known on 2012-09-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-20.
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My LSD order will arrive within 2 weeks. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2012-09-20; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-19.
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GJP: #1102 Will Ireland ratify the European Fiscal Compact in a referendum vote before 1 October 2012? ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Eridan will be prototyped into a kernelsprite by himself. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Sollux and Feferi are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 40% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Of the five remaining dead trolls, at least four of them will be prototyped into fused sprites. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Nepeta and Equius are prototyped together into Dirk's kernelsprite ( 70% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Sollux and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 10% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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Homestuck: Feferi and Eridan are prototyped together into Roxy's kernelsprite ( 20% confidence )
Created by papermachine on 2012-04-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-09-19.
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I will have finished reading up through the latest chapter HPMOR by Oct. 1st ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jakewalker on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-19.
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DNB/nicotine day 15: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-19; known on 2012-09-19; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-19.
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The Wikipedia user Bread Ninja will have stopped editing more than weekly within 2 years. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-09-18; known on 2012-09-18; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-18.
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Iphone 5 shape is same as Iphone 4, the onlything different is the antenna will change a bit! ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-03-02; known on 2013-03-16; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-09-18.
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PG will not reply to Eliezer's question on HN: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=4510702 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-17; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-09-17.
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DNB/nicotine day 14: active? ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-17; known on 2012-09-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-17.
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1 million page-views on `http://www.gwern.net` within 4 months. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-17.
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DNB/nicotine day 13: active? ( 25% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-16; known on 2012-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-16.
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There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
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There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
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There'll be significant protests, riots or attacks against American embassies in more than 5 middle eastern/muslim countries, as a result of the anti-muslim youtube video ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by jakewalker on 2012-09-15.
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I will be able to leave office before 6pm everyday this week. ( 20% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-13; judged right by williamycai on 2012-09-14.
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My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic season 3 will open with a two-part episode ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by Grognor on 2012-09-14.
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DNB/nicotine day 12: active? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-14; known on 2012-09-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-14.
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Fed won't announce QE3 at their Sept 12-13 meeting ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-09-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-14.
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DNB/nicotine day 11: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-13; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-13.
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Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-14; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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Iphone 5 will release next year 2012 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by nam2001 on 2011-04-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2011-04-17.
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iPhone 5 will launch in September of 2012 — Brian White, Topeka Capital Market ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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HN user tsunamifury will comment on HN again. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by ggreer on 2012-08-31; known on 2012-09-21; judged right by ggreer on 2012-09-12.
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Initial shipments (0-30 days after launch day) of iPhone 5 will not have a model with over 512 MB RAM ( 50% confidence; 12 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-03-21; known on 2013-08-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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iPhone 5 (not “4S”) will launch Sprint-only in the US ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-04; known on 2012-09-13; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-12.
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No additional changes will be made to my design project after Tues ( 10% confidence )
Created by williamycai on 2012-09-07; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by williamycai on 2012-09-12.
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DNB/nicotine day 10: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-12; known on 2012-09-12; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-12.
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The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
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After making this prediction, the PredictionBook.com backend will allow me to transition it from public to private. ( 10% confidence )
Created by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by John Maxwell IV on 2012-09-11.
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DNB/nicotine day 9: active? ( 30% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-11.
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Matthew Wright will lose his pirateat40 bet, and will pay out in full ( 35% confidence; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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Michelle Bachmann will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.
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Rick Perry will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.
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Newt Gingrich will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-09-09.
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Ron Paul will win the 2012 GOP nomination. ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by selylidne on 2011-12-20; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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The British High Court will rule in favor of the journal Nature in the libel case brought against it by Professor Mohamed El Naschie. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jason on 2011-11-15; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-09.
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Kate Evans (@aristosophy) will be revealed to be the blogger Sister Y, from The View from Hell ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by Filipe on 2012-09-07; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Filipe on 2012-09-09.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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“Neither major U. S. political party will hold conventions or indeed primaries to select their 2012 Presidential nominees.” ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2012-09-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Steel_ will have a custom capping business (specify a nootropic mix and have it delivered to you) running in a year. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2012-09-11; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Herman Cain’s actual vote share in the 2012 Republican primaries will be significantly lower than his averaged national poll numbers at the time (as indicated by standard measures of statistical significance). ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-08-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.