Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 78% | 86% | 94% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 616 | 437 | 419 | 458 | 711 | 175 | 2816 |
Displaying all predictions made by JoshuaZ. Filter by:
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There will be a total of less than 5 school shootings in 2022, according to the NBC school shooting tracker. (see: https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/school-shooting-tracker-n969951=2019&how-we-count=undefined) ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by adanvers on 2022-04-01; known on 2022-12-31; judged wrong by adanvers on 2023-01-01.
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The Biden administration officially claims that Russia has attempted to interfere in the 2024 US presidential election ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-30; known on 2025-01-31.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid on January 1, 2023. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Odessa will not be invaded by Russia by April 3rd ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-03; judged right by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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Shoigu remains as Russian Minister of Defense until the end of Putin's current term. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-27; known on 2024-05-01.
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Los Angeles indoor mask mandate is in effect any time between now and Jan 2023 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 28 2022 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-29; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-29.
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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-05-02.
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China attempts a full scale invasion of Taiwan in 2022. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atzeje on 2022-03-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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The Biden administration officially claims that China has provided military assistance to Russia for its invasion in Ukraine ( 30% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-14; known on 2025-01-20.
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Congress authorizes a deal to send F-16s to Poland in exchange for Poland sending Soviet-era fighter jets to Ukraine ( 29% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-06; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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Ukrainian military personnel fly Poland's MiG-29s into Ukraine ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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US to deliver Poland's MiG fighter jets to Ukraine ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-01-29.
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At end of March break, my school will be on full masking. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-29.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Putin serves as President of Russia for the remainder of his current term ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-03-01; known on 2024-05-07.
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Cease fire this week holds for > 24 hours ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.
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PRC troops invade Taiwan ( 20% confidence; 23 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24; known on 2026-01-01.
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World War III by October 1, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-10-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-10-02.
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Russia is disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-02.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-04-03.
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World – Will any new country become members of NATO in 2022? ( 22% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.
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Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.
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[Covid origin:] Definitive evidence will be found concerning an accidental lab escape by 2023 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court rule in favor of the State of Mississippi Department of Health in Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization, thereby colloquially, “Overturning Roe v. Wade” ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-19; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-07-01.
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Politics, US – Supreme Court overturns Roe vs Wade before the end of 2022. ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-07-11.
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Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.
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World – A country not currently known to have nuclear weapons tests a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022 ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2023-01-03.
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Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.
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The USA military will use force to remove or help remove the USA government (troops in the streets or the capitol or some other institutions). ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2023-01-01.
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The USA government will be removed before the end of 2022 (according to Wikipedia). ( 5% confidence; 18 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sortega on 2022-02-10; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2023-01-01.
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At least one fatality related to truck protests in Canada by March 15. ( 61% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-16.
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Russia to invade Israel by August 10th 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2025-08-10.
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Jeannie Marie Wagner will not admit she is wrong when revisit topic in six months https://www.facebook.com/harry.mok.3/posts/10159370606954807?comment_id=10159412084094807 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-08-04.
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Consensus that B/Yamagata influenza completed eliminated by January 1, 2026. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-31; known on 2026-01-01.
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Paper on total difference labeling published in journal by end of year. ( 64% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2022-02-24.
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Serious nuclear incident (e.g. nuke going off, dirty bomb, or serious reactor meltdown before Feb 1, 2023). ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-22; known on 2023-02-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-02-01.
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By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by _galvo_ on 2022-01-17; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-12-05.
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CDC official count of at least one million official covid deaths in the US by October 1, 2022. ( 85% confidence; 26 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-14; known on 2022-10-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-26.
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At least 60 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-24.
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All Georgia Tech classes go remote during the Spring 2022 semester ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15.
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No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.
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SpaceX to have a large-scale government bailout by end of 2022. ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-08; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.
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New South Wales has 25,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by kronicd on 2022-01-04.
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Within 5 years of initial release of mRNA vaccines, they will be recognized to cause serious side effects lasting >6 months in at least 1 in 5000 cases. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-22; known on 2026-01-01.
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Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-02-02.
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SpaceX to declare bankruptcy by end of 2022 ( 2% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-03; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2022-02-01 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by blin on 2021-12-29; known on 2022-02-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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No widespread (>1%) issues with fertility as a result of the COVID-19 vaccine (e.g. pfizer) will be known (i.e. reported by reputable US based source e.g. NYT,FDA or equivalent) by 2022. ( 96% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ghodith on 2021-05-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Ghodith on 2022-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2051. ( 74% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2052-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2036. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2037-01-01.
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At least one commercial fusion reactor adding power to the grid by 2041. ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2042-01-01.
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Worldwide deaths in 2022 to exceed 90 million people. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-26; known on 2023-01-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-15.
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SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant will be generally considered a lab leak before 2024 ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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No US city with a population of over a million people will require covid vaccines for indoor dining on December 22, 2023. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-22; known on 2023-12-23.
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Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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I will have my first paper accepted for publication by the end of 2024. ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2024-01-01.
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A bill to legalise Marijuana is passed in France before the end of June ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-08; known on 2022-06-16; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-07-05.
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The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.
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More than 1,000 Palestinians in 2021 will be killed in the context of the occupation and conflict. ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2022-01-01.
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Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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ULA's Vulcan rocket to launch by July 1, 2022 ( 72% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-24; known on 2022-07-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-07-02.
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By end of 2025, bound better than than Omega(N) >(302/113)omega(N) + C known of for all odd perfect numbers N. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-21; known on 2026-01-01.
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[Personal] Student paper on total difference labeling/total difference chromatic numbers to be published by September 25, 2022 ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-05; known on 2022-09-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-26.
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Israel will bomb Iran in the next year. (airstrike/icbm etc. launched directly by the IDF or another Israeli entity) ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Rigulel on 2021-08-02; known on 2022-08-02; judged wrong by Rigulel on 2022-08-03.
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Between August 1 and December 31 2021, the UK will experience a 24 hour period where over 1,000 Covid related deaths are recorded ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by gurgus on 2021-07-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gurgus on 2022-01-01.
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John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.
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P=NP or P≠NP will be proven in either direction by 2050 ( 31% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by scatterspace on 2021-06-14; known on 2050-12-31.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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At the end of the year, I will consider the UFO talk to have been no significant evidence for the existence of aliens ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sty.silver on 2021-05-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.
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A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known on 2022-05-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-15.
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Blue Origin will charge between 50,000 to 200,000 for a ride on New Shepard. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-29; known on 2021-09-15.
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We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Jonathan Rosin will be sentenced to at least a year in jail by January 1, 2023 ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-11; known on 2023-01-01.
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SN 15 to fly again by June 15. ( 58% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-09; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-06-15.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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The GAO will not uphold Blue Origin's protest of the HLS bid. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-27; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-03.
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Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.
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The J&J vaccine will be administered in the US on May 1st: either administration is not paused or it is paused and resumed before May 1st ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lithp on 2021-04-14; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by lithp on 2021-05-01.
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Alexei Navalny (Alexei Anatolievich Navalny) (born 4 June 1976) dies within five (5) years ( 67% confidence; 21 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-04-13; known on 2026-04-13.
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SN-15 to fly by the end April ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-12; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-01.
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[Covid origin:] The virus is definitively found to be a bioweapon, released deliberately or accidently by 2023 (<1% chance) ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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[Covid origin:] A natural origin near Wuhan is found for the virus by 2023 ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by The_Offwo on 2021-04-01; known on 2023-01-01.
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Ever Given will exit the Suez Canal on or before March 30, 2021 ( 54% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2021-03-25; known on 2021-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-03-31.