Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 53% | 53% | 88% | 86% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 38 | 43 | 34 | 16 | 28 | 7 | 166 |
Displaying all predictions made by waveman. Filter by:
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I will read one serious book on quantum field theory by end 2023 Depends on finishing my study of general relativity. ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will compete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2023 ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will weight less than 67kg at end 2023 currently 72kg ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2022-12-31; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will start studying quantum field theory by end 2022 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will complete studying general relativity to my satisfaction by end 2022. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will weigh an average of 67 kg in the last quarter of 2022. Currently 74.4kg ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2022-01-01; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-12-31.
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I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.
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I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.
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Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.
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I will weight 67kg or less by End February 2021 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2021-03-02.
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Trump will not concede the election before inauguration day. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LukeS on 2020-11-14; known on 2021-01-22; judged right by LukeS on 2021-01-22.
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I will pass Italian B1 language by mid 2022 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2022-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-07-02.
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I will weight 67kg or less by EOY 2020 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2020-01-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2021-01-01.
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I will get to 67kg by EOY 2019 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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No Brexit by EOY 2019 ( 37% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2019-03-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2020-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the Republican nominee for President in 2016. ( 52% confidence; 88 wagers; 55 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-14; known on 2016-07-20; judged right by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Lee Sedol will win the final game against AlphaGo ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-15; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-03-15.
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World Champion of Go will defeat Google's AI ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by artir on 2016-03-08; known on 2016-03-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
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I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2017. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2017-09-07.
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I will finish the math for 3rd year physics by end 2016. This includes linear algebra, group theory, Hamiltonian and Lagrangian formulations of classical mechanics, Hilbert Spaces, and full and partial differential equations. ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2019-01-01.
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I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2017 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.
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I will still be below 68lg at the end of 2016 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2017-01-02.
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I will get to 67kg by 1 August 2016 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2016-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-08-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2016. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump to be the next US President. ( 26% confidence; 73 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-11-09.
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Eliot will be forced to stop using “purple people” as an inoffensive placemarker for <some group of people> because it will start to seem offensive and people will <know> who is being referred to. See euphemistic treadmill. Within 5 years ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2020-11-11; judged right by waveman on 2021-01-05.
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My biopsy result with come back negative ie good ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-11-11; known on 2015-11-21; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-11-21.
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Kurtis will have a solid system for managing reminders, to do etc by end Jan 2015. ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-23; known on 2015-02-01.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates above 1% before the end of 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-09-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The Liberal party will win the Canning by-election. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-19.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by end 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms texts that I choose. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2Q 2015. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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I will have finished the math prerequisites for third year physics by mid 2015. Specifically have studied and done the exercises from the differential equations, PDEs, fourier transforms and laplace transforms. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end 1Q 2015 thus completing second year physics. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. By EOY 2015. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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Body fat % down to 15% per average of skin caliper method, Barry Sears “Enter the Zone” metric method, and electronic scales method by end of 2015. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-01-01.
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Weight down to 65 kg by end 2Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82 kg. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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Weight down to 67 kg by end 1Q 2015. Currently 69.2 kg down from 82kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 1Q 2015. This means finishing testing the code, optimizing, getting up to date data, and setting up the actual trading. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2015-01-02; known on 2015-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-04-01.
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I will finish the exercises from “Thermal Physics” by end October 2014, thus completing second year physics. ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-10-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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I will weight less than 65 kg by end 2014 Started at 77kg now 68kg ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2914-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 3Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-07-16; known on 2014-10-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-10-01.
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I will have a complete futures and FX trading system in place by end 2Q 2014. This means finishing the FX code and enhancing my futures code to support individual contracts. ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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Chess will be solved within 10 years, and the end result will be a draw for Black. ( 13% confidence; 24 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-17; known on 2024-06-16.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, completing the race before the cut-off time. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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I will participate in the Sydney Morning Herald Half Marathon on May 17 2015, running a time of less than 2 hours. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheEconomistofVengeance on 2014-05-29; known on 2015-05-17; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-06-01.
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Bob Ellis: “Abbott Will Be Overthrown In The Next Nine Days” ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-28; known on 2014-06-06; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2014-06-06.
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I will have done a walk with at least 200 meters of climb, at least 3 times, by the end of 2014, carrying 30kg of weights. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-29; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-22.
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“Blade of Vengeance” will not move west of Penrith before mid 2015. ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-07-02.
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The economist formerly known as 'The Blade of Vengeance" will read in full “The Crash Course” by end of 27 May 2014 ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-04-27; known on 2014-05-28; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.
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I will finish the equivalent of second year physics by end 3q 2014 Specifically I will have done the exercises from the special relativity, electromagnetism and thermal physics texts. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-11-02.
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By 2024 James F will publicly express regret at the amount of time he wasted investigating the claims of various religions. ( 75% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2014-03-08; known on 2024-01-01.
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I will be able to do 10 sprints to the top of the hill near my house in 15 minutes including returns but not counting the last return. By end October. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-29.
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I will do nothing serious this year about my amazing idea to revolutionize social media. ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-02-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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Jess will have written goals by end Feb 2014. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-23; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by waveman on 2014-05-28.
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Elizabeth, Leah, and Tilia will together cause at least twenty women to make prediction book accounts. ( 23% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by briennestrohl on 2014-01-22; known on 2014-01-29; judged wrong by mitodoteira on 2014-02-04.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will remain visibly overweight at the end of 2014. ( 71% confidence; 20 wagers; 19 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-21; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-02.
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I will finish reading On Lisp before 2015. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-01-01.
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One of the years 2014-2016 will be the hottest year ever. ( 60% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-15; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by waveman on 2015-02-02.
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the “We're sorry, but something went wrong” problem on predictionbook.com will be fixed by the end of the year ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-14; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2015-01-01.
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By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02.
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Futures trading all done and in place with all the high priority strategies done by end September 2014 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-09-30.
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Share trading in place by eoy 2014 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.
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I will be able to do 20 full range pull-ups by end 2014. ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2014-07-12.
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I will be able to do 12 full range pull-ups with hands at shoulder width by mid 2014. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-04-20.
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I will be doing my 1.5km course with a 30kg back pack by end April 2014. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-03-28.
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I will have finished studying classical physics (Langrangian and Hamiltonian) by end 2014. IE studied and done the exercises from an appropriate text book. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2015-01-01.
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I will weight less than 70kg by mid 2014 Currently 77k ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by waveman on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by waveman on 2014-06-09.
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South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.
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Tony Abbott will not be the prime minister after the next federal election. ( 62% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2013-12-03; known on 2016-09-09; judged right by waveman on 2015-09-19.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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Tony Abbott will be the Prime Minister following the 2013 Australian Federal Election ( 60% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by atroche on 2013-05-26; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by atroche on 2013-12-01.
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No recession will occur in the United States for the next 4 years. ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-01; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-02-13.
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Complete equivalent of Y2 physics at Unimelb by eoy 2013 ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.
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Achieve a high level of aerobic fitness (15 mins at 165bpm, 30 at 150bpm) by end 2013. ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-12-31; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-01-01.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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Greece out of Eurozone ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by yahood on 2012-07-27; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Marissa Meyer will quit as Yahoo's CEO in less than 4 years ( 47% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24; known on 2016-07-24; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-24.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky retracts or significantly edits one of the posts in the quantum physics sequence in the next two years. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-05-03; known on 2014-05-03; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-05-04.
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I will have reduced excess fat to the point that I will have visible abs. Currently I am at about 15% Body Fat. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-07-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-31.
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I will have my futures trading strategy complete FAPP by this date and it will be fully implemented. ( 60% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-06-30.
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I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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I will have achieved intermediate level on all my one remaining weightlifting lift as defined in my spreadsheet. ie Bench press 20 reps at 38kg. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-01.
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I will have workable futures trading strategy in place. This is a replacement for another prediction where I put the wrong date in. ( 15% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-02-28; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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I will have mastered physics to 2nd year Uni of Melbourne level ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-02-06; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-07-01.
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I will have finished the equivalent of 3rd year physics. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-07-01.
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The energy source formerly known as cold fusion will be generally accepted as real by end 2012. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-12-31.
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I will have basic stock trading model done, with initial trades by this date. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-09-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I have comprehensive investment models for individual stocks. Evidence: details of models and research which developed them. Fully implemented and trading. ( 50% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have achieved intermediate level weightlifting levels for all lifts as defined in my spreadsheet. ( 75% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-03-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-03-31.
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I will have listened to Dorothy's memories tape and mailed her a letter with my comments and thoughts. ( 40% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-02-28; judged right by waveman on 2012-02-23.
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I will have completed a project that is useful that uses some AI technology. ( 65% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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I will have completed two masters level AI courses at ANU or equivalent ( 30% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.
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During 2012 I will be actively involved in some activist activity. Eg MC. ( 35% confidence )
Created by waveman on 2012-01-09; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by waveman on 2012-08-08.