Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 58% | 60% | 85% | 93% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 142 | 326 | 108 | 67 | 74 | 3 | 720 |
Displaying all predictions made by RandomThinker. Filter by:
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Elon Musk will attempt to go to the Moon before the end of his life ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2052-01-01.
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John Edwards won't be retried ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-01; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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Movie, Les Miserable (2012), will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 67m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-03-22.
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One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Michelle Obama will run for office before 2021 ( 21% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.
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Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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GB will out-medal Aus in the 2012 olympic games ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-05-20; known on 2012-08-11; judged right by Ben Doherty on 2012-08-11.
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Facebook won't buy Opera (the browser) in 2012 ( 77% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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Apple TV to debut in December 2012 —Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.
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Tentative announcements of the discovery of intelligent life in other solar systems will appear in peer reviewed journals by 2020. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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The movie Prometheus will do better than expected (4 wk gross > 168m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2012-07-15; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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> 500m will use Windows 8 by end of 2013 — Steve Ballmer ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Shaq will not be Orlando Magic's GM ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-24; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-06.
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Google will get involved in a case brought by European regulators for antitrust or privacy issues before mid 2013 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-27.
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NY taxi fares will go up > 15% by end of the year. ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-13.
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Skyfall (James Bond movie) will do worse than expected (4 wk gross < 170m @ HSX) ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-22; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-27.
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Facebook will fall below it's offering price ($38) next week ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19; known on 2012-05-26; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-21.
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“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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India will overtake US as Facebook's biggest market by end of 2015 — CNBC, Gartner ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-17; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29.
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Batman the Dark Knight Rises will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 415m on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-14; known on 2012-08-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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The movie Battleship will do worse than expected (4wk gross < 107.2m per HSX) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.
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Avengers will outgross Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows — Part 2 (global box office > 1.32b) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.
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Avengers will outgross Titanic (global box office > 2.18b) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.
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Avengers will outgross Avatar (global box office > 2.78b) ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by davidiach on 2012-10-30.
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Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.
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Europe will abandon austerity policy by end of 2013 ( 65% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Rondo will end up with more career playoff triple doubles than Larry Bird (he'll pass Bird by 2015) ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2015-07-01.
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There'll be another big trader loss incident (involving over $1b in losses) reported before end of 2013 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Apple long-rumored TV product will not arrive in 2012 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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The US will default on its debt in 2013 — Matthew Yglesias ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-12; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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Greece will have another election by end of June, 2012 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-06-18.
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Tablet market will grow 5x in 5 years (424.9 million units by 2017) —NPD ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-09; known on 2018-03-01.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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Apple will switch away from Samsung as the fab for its processors in iPhones and iPads by end of 2014 ( 65% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2014-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2015-01-11.
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At most 1 of the NYT profiled hot startups (Pinterest, Path, Pinwheel, Taskrabbit, Dropbox, Square, Quora, Uber, Airtime) will be acquired before the end of 2013. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-07.
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Facebook IPO price will “pop” above $45 on first day ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-18.
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Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.
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The margin of victory in the French election will be less than 5 points ( 65% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-07.
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Knicks will be swept in the first round of NBA playoffs ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-05-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-05-06.
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Dewey LaBoeuf (law firm) will cease to exist by the end of 2012 ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29.
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Yahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.
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The “blind lawyer” Chinese dissident will come to the US (for however long) before end of 2012 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-19.
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Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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US domestic movie box office for summer in 2012 will be higher than 2011 ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-03.
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Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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Planetary Resources won't be mining asteroids by 2020 ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Jeb Bush will be Mitt Romney's VP pick ( 8% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-09-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-11.
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Kevin Durant will win the NBA scoring title ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-05-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-27.
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iphone 5 won't have significantly different form factor than iphone 4S ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-13.
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The Dictator (movie with Sasha Baren Cohen) will do better than expected (measured by 4 wk US gross > $68m now on HSX) ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Santorum won't be a top 3 candidate in 2016 republican primary (measured by returns in South Carolina primary) ( 78% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-11; known on 2016-02-15; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-15.
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Apple will begin to sell a third tablet-style device in addition to the iPad and iPod touch/iPhone lines. This device will not have the same screen resolution (excluding factors of 2) as one of the other devices. ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 25 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-04-09; known on 2013-04-09; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-04-09.
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By 2050, there will be at least one person cryonically frozen in space. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-08; known on 2051-01-01.
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Marijuana will be legal by 2025 ( 65% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-08; known on 2025-01-01.
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George Zimmerman will be convicted of murder or manslaughter for the shooting of Trayvon Martin before 2015. ( 43% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-04-07; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-01.
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Santorum will win the Pennsylvania primary ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-04; known on 2012-04-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-10.
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“The Supreme Court will uphold ObamaCare” —jdgalt ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-05-30; judged right by RobertLumley on 2012-06-28.
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Diablo 3 will launch on consoles by end of 2012 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
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Jeremy Lin will not return to the NBA this season. ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JeffreyTse on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-05-11; judged right by JeffreyTse on 2012-05-11.
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Obama's world bank candidate, Jim Kim, will win the position ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-16.
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Not including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Starcraft 2 (measured by 1st month sales – Starcraft 2 sold 3 million units). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-06-05.
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Including consoles, Diablo 3 will have lower sales than Skyrim (1st month sales = 7 million) ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15.
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Apple will buy Twitter before end of 2013 ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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Google will actually produce Google Maps 8-Bit for NES (http://goo.gl/zA1BJ), and will announce this before the end of April. ( 5% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by quicklystarfish on 2012-03-31; known on 2012-05-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-05-01.
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Murder rate has bottomed in the US (2013 murder rate > 2011 according to fbi stats http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/ucr/ucr) ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-31; known on 2014-06-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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SCOTUS will strike down only the individual mandate and leave the rest of Obama healthcare law intact ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-29; known on 2012-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Tebow will start at least 1 NFL game next year (2012-13 NFL season) ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-02-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-02-25.
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Facebook will settle with Yahoo on its patent suit by end of 2012 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-07.
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Requesting facebook password for a job will be against the law in at least 1 state or against federal laws/regulations by end of 2013 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05.
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Michael Jordan will sell or become passive owner of the Bobcats by start of 2013-14 NBA season ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-12-03.
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Mobile app suites will emerge as a paid for layer on top of vanilla OS ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-28; known on 2013-09-28; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-30.
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Hazem Salah Abu Ismail will be the next Egyptian president. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by HamletHenna on 2012-03-25; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by HamletHenna on 2012-06-20.
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Screens will not be the primary form of interface with mobile devices by 2025 ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2012-03-24; known on 2025-01-16.
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Three Stooges the movie will do better than expected (4 wk gross > $23m predicted by HSX) ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-18; known on 2012-05-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26.
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John Carter won't do as bad as expected (4 wk gross > 80m) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-09; known on 2012-04-09; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-04-03.
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Apple's announcement for the 4th major iPad refresh will call the new iPad “the new iPad” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-03-09; known on 2013-08-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-11-22.
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In 12 months (End of Q1 2013), unit sales of iPad 3 LTE + iPad 2 Wifi > iPad 3 Wifi ( 45% confidence; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-08; known on 2013-03-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-01.
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Bill Gates will overtake Carlos Slim as world's richest in less than 5 years. ( 70% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2018-01-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-05-18.
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Scientists will confirm discovery of Higgs Boson by end of 2012 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2013-01-16; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-26.
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Yu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA) ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Peyton Manning will sign with the Redskins ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-08-16; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-03-20.
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iPad market share in Tablets will stay above 50% through November 1 2013 (2 years after Kindle release) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Tablet Sales will not overtake PC sales by Jan 1 2014. (see http://www.nytimes.com/2012/03/06/technology/as-new-ipad-debut-nears-some-see-decline-of-pcs.html?hpw) ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Valve announces Steam Box before 2014. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-01.
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At least one government official (bureaucrat/politician/member of a royal family) assassinated by a flying robot before 2020. ( 57% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-06; known on 2020-01-01.
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Google TV will be more successful than Apple TV in 12 months (hard to measure, will have to be judged qualitatively) ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-05; known on 2013-03-01.
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Windows will have greater than 6% market share of smart phones by March 2013 (12 months from now) ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2014-03-01; judged right by dk on 2014-03-21.
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Chinese stock market index will be higher 1 year from now (measured by SSE, which is 2410 right now, on Mar 5, 2013) ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2013-03-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-04-23.
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GJP: #1103 Before 1 April 2012, will the Sudan and South Sudan governments officially announce an agreement on oil transit fees? ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-03-06; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-04-03.
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The US will have have laws or regulations to outlaw normal people destroying drones by end of 2022 (10 years from now) ( 48% confidence; 7 wagers; 33 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-06; known on 2022-12-31.