Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 70% | 43% | 58% | 81% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 10 | 7 | 12 | 21 | 20 | 1 | 71 |
Displaying all predictions made by fela. Filter by:
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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matthias came ( 15% confidence )
Created by fela on 2014-05-18; known on 2014-05-18.
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I will pass health class. ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by cobalt on 2014-05-13; known on 2014-06-30; judged right by cobalt on 2014-07-08.
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Martin Schulz will be the next president of the european commision. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by nyabhingi on 2014-05-12; known on 2014-06-30; judged wrong by nyabhingi on 2014-06-30.
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It will snow in Southern Ontario (Canada) in April ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by satayana on 2014-03-13; known on 2014-04-30; judged right by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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The Newsweek reporter will be fired within a year. ( 32% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-03-07; known on 2015-03-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-03-07.
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Dorian S. Nakamoto is the Satoshi Nakamoto. (Nobody will prove / find really compelling evidence as to why Dorian is not Satoshi in 2014) ( 31% confidence; 27 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by Tenoke on 2014-03-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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World War 3 will start by december 2014 ( 1% confidence; 29 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by refnum on 2014-03-03; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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Canada will win the 2014 paralympics. ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-09; known on 2014-03-17; judged wrong by Mati on 2014-03-17.
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There are unique 50 wagers on this prediction by April 1st, 2014. ( 69% confidence; 62 wagers; 71 comments )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-18; known on 2014-04-02; judged right by rickyrich98 on 2014-04-02.
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MIRI will continue operating in end of 2014. ( 92% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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The Hobbit will win Best Visual Effects. ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-16; known on 2014-03-03; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-03.
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Snowden will be granted an official pardon by Barack Obama by January 2015. ( 5% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by entropy on 2014-01-14; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by ciil on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin hits $10000 at some point during 2014 (top exchange on http://bitcoincharts.com/markets/currency/USD.html) ( 16% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
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[mredactedw] will get a 4.0 next semester. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-04; known on 2014-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-24.
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The Swiss Basic Income initiative will pass the vote and be implemented. ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-10-05; known on 2014-06-03; judged wrong by kuudes on 2014-12-01.
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The One Million Dollar Paranormal Challenge prize goes unclaimed. ( 98% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-02; known on 2015-01-02; judged right by mad on 2015-01-03.
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BitCoin is valued at $1,000 within the month ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-02-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-06.
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I'll receive strait A's next semester. ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2014-01-02; known on 2014-06-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2014-06-27.
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I will make an A or higher in PWR. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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I will make a B- or higher in CS110: Principles of Computer Systems. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-03-25; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-30.
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A different cryptocurrency beats Bitcoin in market cap at some point during the year. ( 7% confidence; 31 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-01; known on 2014-12-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2014-12-31.
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I will pass the computational neuroscience program on Coursera ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ashrewdmint on 2013-12-27; known on 2014-03-07; judged right by ashrewdmint on 2014-08-22.
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A virtual reality headset (Oculus Rift-esque) sells more than a million units within the next 5 years. ( 85% confidence; 23 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by adbge on 2013-12-26; known on 2018-12-26; judged right by bendini on 2017-06-05.
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Chris Dixon: Amazon.com will be using bitcoins in 5 years (by 1/1/2019) ( 33% confidence; 26 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-13; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Nick Szabo is the real Satoshi Nakamoto ( 19% confidence; 30 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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iPhone 6's will have a larger screen than iPhone 5's. ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by eren on 2013-12-04; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by eren on 2014-09-20.
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The 2013 Less Wrong Survey will show more than 60% of the participants to be men. ( 94% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Mathias Zaman on 2013-12-01; known on 2014-01-31; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-01-19.
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The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.
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Takers of the LW survey/census will respond as left-handed more often than the base rate ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2013-11-27; known on 2014-01-12; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-01-19.
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The US dollar will still be the world's primary reserve currency in 2025 (The primary reserve currency being the currency held in greatest amounts by countries in their foreign reserves). ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-15; known on 2025-01-01.
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Massive (20%+ of network) blockchain split (>=120 blocks) in BitCoin before 2015 ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-17; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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I will switch to a primary music player that is not foobar2000, before 2015 ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-16; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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Bitcoin >$9000 by February 2014. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-11-15; known on 2014-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-02-01.
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My default Anki deck will contain equal to or greater than 20,000 cards before 2014. ( 95% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-11-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-12-17.
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Hillary Clinton will win the 2016 USA election. ( 43% confidence; 38 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by najdorf on 2013-11-11; known on 2016-11-30; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
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I will be asked out by a girl before the end of the Spring 2014 semester. ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2013-10-09; known on 2014-05-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-05-10.
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I will make at least ten public predictions on PredictionBook in the month of November (excluding predictions regarding my usage of PredictionBook). ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by tylercurtis on 2013-10-03; known on 2013-12-01; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Grand Theft Auto 5 to be released on PC before April 2014 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Omid on 2013-09-18; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by wraith on 2014-05-28.
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Snowden arrested by US authorities before 2014 ( 24% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by dhoe on 2013-06-23; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by dhoe on 2013-12-31.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Bitcoins will be worth more than 50$/coin at the end of 2013. ( 76% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2013-02-18; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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I will genotype my son before his 1st birthday. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-03-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-02-05.
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GoodSearch (http://goodsearch.com/) will continue to operate two years from today. ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Grognor on 2012-01-14; known on 2014-01-14; judged right by Grognor on 2014-01-15.
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I will drop out of college. ( 7% confidence; 11 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-13; known on 2014-03-31; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-03-31.
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The future of the Euro: Germany / Netherlands abandon Euro and form new currency / currencies. Remaining currencies also abandon the Euro and relaunch national currencies. ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-07; known on 2014-01-16; judged wrong by ygert on 2014-02-02.
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“Orkut to be merged with Google Plus in the near future” —Chris Jolley ( 33% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-23; known on 2013-11-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-23.
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Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
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“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2013” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-31.
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“the entire north polar ice cap may well be completely gone in five years.” —Al Gore ( 12% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-11; known on 2014-04-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-04-01.
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“Google Earth / Street View will become a video gaming platform, where users can play Grand Theft Auto-like games virtually in their own neighborhoods. Users will be able to upload GPS-coupled renderings of the insides of buildings. Users will allow other ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.