Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 58% | 73% | 77% | 80% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 5 | 62 | 59 | 73 | 56 | 0 | 255 |
Displaying all predictions made by Adam Zerner. Filter by:
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Two or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 5% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
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One or more people show up to the Indie Hackers meetup ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-22; known on 2020-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-23.
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I will get a job in academia in Denmark after my PhD ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-07-16; known on 2024-01-01.
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Jakes IO psych conference happens in April ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-16; known on 2021-04-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2021-04-16.
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https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23851223 makes the front page within 60 minutes from now ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15; known on 2020-07-15; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-07-15.
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Scott Alexander will be doxed by the NYT ( 38% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-23; known on 2020-07-08; judged right by 1MillionAffen on 2021-06-22.
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Tech – Apple announces that iOS 14 or iPadOS 14 will contain the ability to change the default email app and/or default browser during WWDC 2020. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-06-20; known on 2020-06-27; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-07-04.
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Las Vegas casinos will be closed at some point in 2020 due to a second wave of the coronavirus ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-26; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by NickN on 2020-08-16.
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[Biden's VP pick will be] Someone else ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by amadeu on 2020-05-22; known on 2020-08-01; judged wrong by Deepak on 2020-08-11.
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Tuzar Skipper makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-04.
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Jaylen Samuels makes the roster ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-09-05.
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NFL season starts on time ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-08; known on 2020-09-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-09-13.
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Alex isn't home ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-06; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-05-05.
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The car is Alex's ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13; known on 2020-04-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-13.
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“The Essential Workers” (or similar subject) will be TIME Magazine's Person of the Year for 2020. ( 40% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-04-10; known on 2020-12-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-12-15.
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Ben gets reference to “Don't stutter” ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-12.
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Ben gets the reference to “Germany”` ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09; known on 2020-04-09; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-04-09.
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Joe Biden gets coronavirus in 2020 ( 28% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2020-03-22; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-12-31.
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Trump has the coronavirus ( 31% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-14; known on 2020-03-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2020-03-15.
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I pass the Automattic chat interview ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-02; known on 2020-01-16; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2020-01-16.
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Electric car will be charged >=90% ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.
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Randy Fitchner doesn't get fired ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Mike Tomlin doesn't get fired ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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The Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
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The Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.
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The problem with trying to cache xxx.worker.js is due to the worker-loader package. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-09-21; known on 2018-10-21.
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jessicata doesn't think GiveWell is a scam ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20; known on 2018-12-20; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-12-20.
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One of my specs is screwed up ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Charge cord doesn't reach ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18; known on 2018-10-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-18.
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Alex gets 100 on her quiz ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11; known on 2018-10-11; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-11.
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Alex and Jenny will be home ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.
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We get kicked out of the hotel ( 10% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.
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We get asked to keep it down at the hotel ( 30% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04; known on 2018-10-04; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-04.
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They fix my bike for free ( 20% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-05.
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It costs $100 or less to fix my bike ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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It costs $200 or less to fix my bike ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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The hotel room has a king sized bed ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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The hotel room has a big bathtub ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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The hotel room has a fridge ( 40% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-02; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-03.
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LeVeon Bell won't be traded ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-30; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-31.
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LeVeon Bell will report at the bye week like he says he will, assuming he doesn't get traded ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-02; known on 2018-10-21; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-19.
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They won't have milk at the business center ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01; known on 2018-10-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2018-10-01.
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Alex will be home after 7pm ( 65% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27; known on 2018-01-27; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-27.
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We make it to Alexs moms in our electric car ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2018-01-01.
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Next term there will be a democratic president in America ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2020-12-04; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-12-04.
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The answer is “semantics” ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04.
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CarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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There are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars ( 99% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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CarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
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They don't serve a meal on the plane ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-07-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-07-26.
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Everything in Amazon delivery will be here tomorrow ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-16; known on 2017-06-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-17.
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Warriors will win NBA championship ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-06-18; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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My tendon won't hurt when I go for a run this afternoon ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-03-31.
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My tendon will be better in 3 months ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-30; known on 2017-06-30; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-06-15.
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Sprouts is open till 10 ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-24.
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There won't be more than two questions on the distinction between interval and ratio on Alex's test ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23; known on 2017-03-24; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-23.
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Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-21; known on 2017-03-21.
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Kentucky wins the NCAA tournament ( 12% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-26.
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Villanova doesn't win the NCAA tournament ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-15; known on 2017-04-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-21.
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My MRI will be at the doctor on Wednesday ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-03-15; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-03-16.
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Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
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All three of my Amazon orders arrive before 8pm tomorrow. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-09; known on 2016-11-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-10.
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My bike will still be at The Sheffield. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-10-15.
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Alex knows what the Monty Hall problem is ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13; known on 2016-10-13; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-13.
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The orthotic makes my achilles peritendonitis better within 3 months. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2017-02-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2017-02-07.
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I do at least 50 hours of pomos over the next week. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-10-14; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-17.
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I spend less than $900 next month. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.
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I spend less than $1000 next month. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-11-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-17.
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Jessica won't visit me before the end of the year. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2016-12-30.
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Haseeb will visit me some time between November 25th and December 5th. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-10-07; known on 2016-12-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-11-06.
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Kaj's claim is 1) – http://lesswrong.com/lw/aw/its_okay_to_be_at_least_a_little_irrational/cbra ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-05; known on 2016-05-05.
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Kevin Durant will sign with the Thunder ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-02; known on 2016-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2016-07-04.
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I'm using AT&T ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23.
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Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-07; known on 2015-07-08; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-08.
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I finish 717 and 720 by the end of the day. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-09; known on 2015-06-09.
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Warriors beat the Cavs (update with game one outcome and Kyrie's injury known) ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-06; known on 2015-06-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Warriors beat the Cavs ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-05; known on 2015-06-19; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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I will go on a date with the next person I have a crush on. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-04; known on 2017-06-05; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-03-29.
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Cavs beat the Hawks ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-27.
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Warriors beat the Rockets ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-20; known on 2015-06-10; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-28.
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Clippers beat the Rockets ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Bulls beat the Cavs ( 55% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04; known on 2015-05-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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Warriors beat the Grizzlies ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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Hawks beat the Wizards ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-03; known on 2015-05-17; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-16.
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The Warriors won't win it all ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-19; known on 2015-06-19; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-06-17.
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Grizzlies beat the Blazers ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-30.
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Spurs beat the Clippers ( 75% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-04.
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Rockets beat the Mavs ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-29.
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Warriors beat the Pelicans ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
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Wizards beat the Raptors ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-27.
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Bulls beat the Bucks ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-01.
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Cavs beat the Celtics ( 98% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-26.
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Hawks beat the Nets ( 95% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-17; known on 2015-05-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-02.
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Wisconsin will beat Duke ( 60% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-07; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-07.
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My achilles will be better (able to run) within 7 more weeks. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-05-18.
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My achilles will be better (enough for me to start running) within 2 more weeks. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-06; known on 2015-04-20; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-04-20.
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The laptop that Mobiquity gives to us will be ours to keep. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-17; known on 2015-02-18; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-20.
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The Patriots will win the Super Bowl. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-31; known on 2015-02-02; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-02-02.
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I get the job at Google ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-29; known on 2015-01-29; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2015-01-30.