Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Recent Predictions
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UN Chief Antonio Guterres resigns by 2024 ( 13% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 7 days ago; known on 2024-01-01.
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf 8 days ago; known on 2026-07-01.
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AI winter in 2024 ( 1% confidence )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 21 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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WW3 by 2025 ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum 22 days ago; known on 2025-01-01.
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Russia uses a tactical nuclear warhead in the Ukraine war between Nov 2023 – Feb 2025. ( 62% confidence )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2025-02-15.
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Elon Musk will run for a political office in 2024 ( 79% confidence )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Elon Musk will attempt to run for president in 2024 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Milani on 2023-09-29; known on 2024-01-16.
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Fewer people globally will die of deseases ( 98% confidence )
Created by Magda on 2023-09-28; known on 2023-09-28.
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PredictionBook will transition to read-only mode as originally stated. ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by avi on 2023-09-27; known on 2024-01-10.
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Q3 2023 recession by NBER ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2025-04-01.
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Q2 2023 recession by NBER ( 80% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-23; known on 2024-12-31.
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27 USC 174 incremental revenues TY22+TY23 < 57.1 ( 99% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-14; known on 2025-01-01.
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Bank Term Funding Program renewed or other liquidity for banks' U.S. Treasuries provided on or before expiration ( 95% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-13; known on 2024-03-12.
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BJP will win India's Lok Sabha 2024 Elections ( 80% confidence )
Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.
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Narendra Modi will not be PM after India's Lok Sabha 2024 ( 30% confidence )
Created by atharva117 on 2023-09-12; known on 2024-06-16.
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SpaceX most valuable company in the world by 2060 ( 75% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-09-09; known on 2060-01-01.
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01490734 —> curiga paraganglioma dd myxoid ependymoma ( 70% confidence )
Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known 27 days ago.
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Massa psoas sign? Hasil PA ( 50% confidence )
Created by dimasrizaputra@yahoo.co.id on 2023-09-04; known 27 days ago.
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(John Brady) – David Hambly will buy drinks at path update 2024 for complaining about work. ( 75% confidence )
Created by johnranin@gmail.com on 2023-08-28; known on 2024-03-03.
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Created by Prownie on 2023-08-24; known on 2033-08-24.
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80k will give personal 1:1 advice to Prownie ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2023-08-18; known 14 days ago.
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I will reach 175lbs body weight by the Oahu marathon ( 60% confidence )
Created by Radhuahua on 2023-08-16; known on 2023-12-10.
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the dallas cowboys will not win the superbowl ( 100% confidence )
Created by mdr111 on 2023-08-13; known on 2024-02-15.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2050 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2050-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2040 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2040-01-01.
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A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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Hematom extradural dupa cazatura si laceratie supraorbitala. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07; known on 2023-08-07; judged wrong by Paulasdw on 2023-08-07.
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A paper proposing a better method for creating LK-99 is published on arxiv by Friday ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-06; known on 2023-08-11; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-12.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1, 2024 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2023-08-02; known on 2024-09-01.
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General consensus that LK-99 or some component of it is a room temp superconductor by Sept 1. ( 26% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-31; known on 2023-09-02; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-09-02.
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65616211 – subependymoom ( 50% confidence )
Created by Mathieu_VDM on 2023-07-25; known on 2023-09-25.
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I will get into EAGxMelbourne 2023 ( 65% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-22; known on 2023-08-02.
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Will >15 PredictionBook users import their predictions to Fatebook using https://fatebook.io/import-from-prediction-book by August 1st? ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-12; known on 2023-08-01; judged right by jellyberg on 2023-08-10.
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Will my brother call me/want to talk with me in the next two weeks? ( 20% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-22.
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Will I have passed my semester 1 marketing exam? ( 35% confidence )
Created by MissReaper on 2023-07-08; known on 2023-07-10; judged right by MissReaper on 2023-07-10.
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My telehealth appointment today will result in a metformin prescription for reducing long covid risk. ( 60% confidence )
Created by dmz on 2023-07-07; known on 2023-07-08; judged wrong by dmz on 2023-07-07.
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Alien invasion, real or faked by end of 2025. ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-07-07; known on 2026-01-01.
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xx ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jellyberg on 2023-07-04; known on 2023-07-05; judged right by tempjb on 2023-07-04.
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Will manifold.markets exist in 2024? ( 80% confidence )
Created by duck_master on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-01-01.
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SPR below 300M by end of H1 2024 ( 60% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2024-07-11.
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SPR below 341M by end of 2024 ( 90% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-07-02; known on 2025-01-10.
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I in 3 years ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2026-05-22.
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I in 2 years ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2025-05-22.
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Will OpenAI have >=99.9% uptime for June 2023? ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Will actors strike by July 1, 2023? ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-28; known on 2023-07-01; judged wrong by duck_master on 2023-07-02.
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Páncreas adenocarcinoma 5885272 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-07-15.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for creativity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for productivity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, my average creativity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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On days with caffeine, my average productivity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 52% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-27; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-27.
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Metástasis hemorragicas 7061675 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-07-05.
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Will I write my first LW post by June's end? ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by duck_master on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-30; judged right by duck_master on 2023-07-01.
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Ectasia ductal ( 60% confidence )
Created by Mrosito on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-06-29.
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A-38 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-37 was caffeine. ( 70% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-36 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-35 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-34 was caffeine. ( 65% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-33 was caffeine. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-32 was caffeine. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-31 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-30 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-29 was caffeine. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-26; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2050 ( 60% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2050-01-01.
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Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2030 ( 20% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Zuckerberg wins against Musk (cond the match happens, cond no technology used in/immediately before battle) ( 77% confidence )
Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2024-01-01.
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λ<4 for the creativity values. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the producitvity values. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the creativity values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the productivity values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the chastity values. ( 95% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the relaxation values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the contentment values. ( 90% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the happiness values. ( 85% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the chastity values. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the relaxation values. ( 37% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the contentment values. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the happiness values. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for chastity during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for relaxation during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for contentment during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 30% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for happiness during the day was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average chastity during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 50% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average relaxation during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average contentment during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 45% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average happiness during the day was higher than days with placebo. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the absorption values. ( 88% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<4 for the mindfulness values. ( 82% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the absorption values. ( 25% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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λ<1 for the mindfulness values. ( 20% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for absorption during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 35% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, the variance of values for mindfulness during meditation was lower than on placebo days. ( 55% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average absorption during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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On days with caffeine, my average mindfulness during meditation was higher than days with placebo. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill has a log score of more than -0.5. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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My prediction about the content of the pill is more accurate than random guesses. ( 80% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-50 was caffeine. ( 75% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-49 was caffeine. ( 10% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-48 was caffeine. ( 40% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged wrong by niplav on 2023-06-26.
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A-47 was caffeine. ( 60% confidence )
Created by niplav on 2023-06-19; known on 2023-12-31; judged right by niplav on 2023-06-26.