Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 67% | 75% | 0% | 100% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 20 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tenobrus. Filter by:
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BTC Will fall below 12k before dec 8th ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-06; known on 2017-12-08; judged wrong by leftblank on 2017-12-08.
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Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.
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Ethereum hard fork will happen because of https://paritytech.io/blog/security-alert.html ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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There will be a Wikipedia page detailing the crypto currency boom resembling https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble ( 60% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by xzvf on 2017-11-06; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by xzvf on 2018-12-21.
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AMD's stock hits $20 ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lettergram on 2017-10-27; known on 2018-05-16; judged wrong by lettergram on 2018-05-16.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.
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social movement with explicit reference to kyriarchy as a tenet commits mass murder (>10,000 people) ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-18; known on 2042-01-01.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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LUST ICO turns out to be a scam ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.
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Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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“The Long Now Foundation will no longer exist in 2104.” ( 59% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2104-01-01.
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More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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California will secede from the United States before 2021 ( 0% confidence; 34 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-13; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-01.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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[HPMOR Ch. 114] The true solution will hinge on truly convincing Voldemort to let Harry out of the box (i.e. no “brute force” transfiguration solutions where talking is just a distraction) ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dain on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-03; judged wrong by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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EY accepts at least one answer for the Final Exam, causing the story to continue to chapter 121. ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by tedks on 2015-03-02; known on 2015-03-04; judged right by iwakun on 2015-03-03.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.