Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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March 2014 hard drive prices: 50-58 GB/$ ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-03-28.
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March 2013 hard drive prices: 24-30 GB/$ ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-03-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-03-28.
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August 2013 hard drive prices: 37-43 GB/$ ( 48% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-08-28.
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August 2014 hard drive prices: 74-84 GB/$ ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-23; known on 2014-08-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-08-23.
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Scott Siskind will stil be an atheist by 2014. ( 96% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2012-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least January 15, 2013 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-15.
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Romney will have raised more cash than Obama for 2012 election ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
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Best Buy will be taken private before December 2013 ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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North Korea will have a working nuclear power plant by end of 2013. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2014-07-09.
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Apple and Samsung won't settle before the jury verdict ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-21; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-08-25.
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Current Syrian regime to fall by January 1, 2013 ( 35% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-21; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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Assuming Assange stays there, British enforcement agents will not enter Ecuador embassy without Ecuadoran consent before end of 2013 ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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The world will not end before 2050 ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2050-01-02.
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George R. R. Martin's The Winds of Winter will not be released before 2016 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Lyaer on 2012-08-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Apple won't buy TiVo before end of 2013 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-17; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Romney will eventually release more tax returns, before 2012 election ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-16; known on 2012-11-30; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22.
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Fareed Zakaria: Indonesia will win more gold medals than Brazil in 2040 ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2040-12-31.
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North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.
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An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.
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By 2022, autonomous drones will have been used by a government agency to kill someone. ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-08-04; known on 2022-08-04; judged right by atzeje on 2022-05-23.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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I will be employed as lukeprog's research assistant in 6 months ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-25; known on 2012-07-25; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-25.
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Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2027-07-23.
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LW user JaneQ is LW user private_messaging (is LW user Dmytry). ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2012-07-23; known on 2013-07-02; judged right by Grognor on 2012-08-24.
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Pope Benedict XVI will be dead before November, 2012. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-08; known on 2012-11-01; judged wrong by Laurent Bossavit on 2012-10-31.
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I will complete Learn Ruby the Hard Way within the next month. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-03; known on 2012-08-03; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-24.
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1 million page-views on `http://www.gwern.net` within 4 months. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-17.
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Facebook ($FB) will buy RIM ($RIMM) ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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AAPL share prices will reach $700 before December 2013 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sucrenoir on 2012-07-02; known on 2013-01-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2013-06-19.
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My plane to Shanghai will crash tomorrow ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Christopher on 2012-07-02; known on 2012-07-03; judged wrong by Christopher on 2012-07-03.
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(All) Wikipedias' total editor base will be >=95,000 in June 2012. ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-04.
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The new exchange student from Sweden will last out the full school year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2012-07-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-07-01.
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Assuming Obama wins, the Bush tax cuts for the wealthy will continue in 2013 ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-01; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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There will be at least one implanted device (medical or otherwise) on the market that runs a Linux-based OS within the next 10 years. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-07-01; known on 2022-07-01.
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The honorarium I’ll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be more than 126 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged right by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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The honorarium I'll receive for an hour long talk to be given tomorrow will be between 75 and 125 USD in total value (i.e., including travel reimbursements, food, etc.) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by papermachine on 2012-06-29; known on 2012-06-30; judged wrong by papermachine on 2012-06-30.
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I will be using Linux in 20 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Linux in 10 years ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Emacs in 20 years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Emacs in 10 years ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Firefox in 20 years ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Firefox in 10 years ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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I will be using Bash in 20 years ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.
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I will be using Bash in 10 years ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2022-06-28; judged right by gwern on 2022-06-29.
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Ecuador will accept Julian Assange for asylum before 2014 ( 39% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-20; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-08-16.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.
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The Republican Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 80% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Zynga will fall below $3 before June 1, 2013 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-12; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26.
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Will Newsome will publicly endorse http://www.timecube.com/ as the most accurate website ever made. ( 10% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-06-11; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by muflax on 2017-08-19.
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F. Castro outlives Thatcher ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by chimpsky on 2012-06-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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kalla724 will write a technical post debunking cryonics ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-09; known on 2013-06-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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Mubarak will have passed away by mid 2013 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-06-07; known on 2013-06-01; judged wrong by holycow81 on 2013-06-09.
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Gwern will get the matrix IQ test data from Fitzgerald 2012 —shminux ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-06-07; known on 2012-06-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-14.
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By default, the Command Prompt in Windows 8 RTM will be resizable (to an increase in width) by dragging the corner resizer. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-09; known on 2012-08-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-09-03.
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LessWrong user XiXiDu or a XiXiDu sockpuppet will post a comment or article to lesswrong.com before 2018 ( 89% confidence; 12 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-03; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-09-04.
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GJP: #1087 Will Amr Moussa win the next Egyptian presidential election? ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-21; known on 2012-06-20; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-08-28.
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Grognor will record >20 days of sleep quality data with melatonin use ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-31; known on 2012-08-31; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-08-28.
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Facebook will fall as low as $15 in 2012 ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Stock market will not crash before the next US presidential elections ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ufo42 on 2012-05-28; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.
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Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.
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Conditional on working any days, Grognor will work 1<=x<=14 months for Walmart. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-14; known on 2013-08-14; judged right by Grognor on 2013-02-27.
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Eduardo Saverin will un-renounce or try to regain his US citizenship sometime in his life ( 28% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13; known on 2072-12-31.
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Gold has peaked for the next 5 years (spot gold < 1900 until 1-1-2017) ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-01.
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Rutaesomn will offer to send me some free pills. ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-06-10.
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I will die by non-suicide means by the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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Death Note: Equestria: Spike is L ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-06-10; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-10.
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Facebook IPO price will “pop” above $45 on first day ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-18.
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Facebook will buy Evernote before end of 2013 ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Japan will restart nuclear reactors before end of 2020 ( 68% confidence; 6 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2020-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-07-24.
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Yahoo will change CEO's before end of 2012 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-05; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-05-13.
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Seth Roberts will not post a blog post on my (supposedly) null result for taking vitamin D in the morning. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-28; known on 2012-05-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-05-02.
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Looking back from 2016, people will say that Microsoft “got” social networking better than Google. ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Google will buy RIMM before the end of 2013 ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-01; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by mastermind8189 on 2013-12-28.
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Zeo vitamin D morning: Week 7 &8: placebo then vitamin D ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-27; known on 2012-04-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-04-28.
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Apple will be a trillion dollar company before end of 2016 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-26; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “multiuser browser-based interactive ghci, hpaste.org meets tryhaskell.org, for improved teaching of those new to Haskell.” ( 80% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Enable GHC to use multiple instances of a package for compilation” ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-17.
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GSoC 2012: “Sandboxed builds and isolated environments for Cabal” ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Accelerating Haskell Application Development” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Implement Concurrent Hash-table / Hash map” ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Scoutess – a build manager for cabal projects” ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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GSoC 2012: “Patch Index Optimization for Darcs” ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Replication of the buckyball life extension research will show <25% longevity gains. ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-22; known on 2018-04-22; judged right by pranomostro on 2020-02-09.
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Nosek’s project to replicate findings from three major psychology journals will find that >=60% of them are failed replications ( 43% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lweismantel on 2012-04-19; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by hedges on 2015-05-01.
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HP MoR: Rita Skeeter was hoaxed into publishing the article by Fred & George Weasley, and Gilderoy Lockhart gave false memories via Memory Charm to Rita Skeeter ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2015-08-17.
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Given that they complete a least 48 attempted replications, less than 5% of the replications the reproducibility project* is attempting will successfully replicate at the p<.05 level. http://openscienceframework.org/project/shvrbV8uSkHewsfD4/wiki/index ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-04-19; known on 2022-10-10; judged wrong by CarlShulman on 2016-11-09.
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HP MoR: Cloak & Hat is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 82% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-18; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by player_03 on 2015-02-22.
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HP MoR: Severus Snape is behind Hermione Draco accident (attempted murder) ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ami on 2012-04-18; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2015-03-14.
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papermachine will buy Grognor a monocle on or by December 7, 2012 ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-04-18; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by Grognor on 2012-12-09.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=50% of the links will be restored. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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In my Wikipedia experiment, >=90% of the links will be restored. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-15; known on 2012-06-15; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-05-30.
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Hugo Chavez dies in the year 2012 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-04-14; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-31.
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HP MoR: MoR will win a Hugo for Best Novel 2013-2017 ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-13; known on 2017-09-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-04-29.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder’s Map is the appearance of a marked Riddle or Voldemort on the map in places without people ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The intermittent glitch in the Marauder's Map is people appearing in multiple places simultaneously due to use of Time Turners. ( 42% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by tadrinth on 2012-04-12; known on 2014-04-12; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing as 'the Defense Professor' ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Oscar_Cunningham on 2015-03-26.
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HP MoR: The constant glitch in the Marauder's Map is Quirrel appearing under another name (eg. 'Tom Riddle') ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-04-11; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Unknowns on 2015-03-27.