Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 66% | 55% | 64% | 79% | 92% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 62 | 76 | 58 | 62 | 98 | 24 | 380 |
Displaying all predictions made by splorridge. Filter by:
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I will try an alcoholic drink in 2017 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-02-13.
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I will be hospitalised in 2017 (not counting A&E) ( 5% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will have a major haircut in 2017 ( 10% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2018-01-02.
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I will reach my weight goal of 64.1kg (10 day average) in 2017 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-01-13.
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I will read >15 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-11-11.
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I will drop out of my PhD in 2017 ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Trump survives his presidency ( 92% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2016-11-21; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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At least one cartoonist arrested for cartoon of President Trump in US ( 19% confidence; 9 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-01-01.
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World population hits 7.5 billion in 2017 ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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Gay marriage will remain legal throughout a Trump presidency. ( 87% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
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Neither Trump nor any of his officials (Cabinet, etc) will endorse the KKK, Stormfront, or explicit neo-Nazis publicly, refuse to back down, etc, and keep their job. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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US Muslim population increases throughout Trump’s presidency. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total minority population of US citizens will increase throughout Trump presidency. ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Total US hate crimes incidents (see comment) will not be more than 125% at any year during Trump presidency. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-17; known on 2021-01-20.
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Hilary Clinton goes to jail ( 10% confidence; 21 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by cjbeyer on 2016-11-16; known on 2018-06-16; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-06-16.
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A fictional character will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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A non-human animal will be elected US president in 2020 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-14; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-08.
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Politics – Conditional on their loss, Donald Trump concedes within 24 hours of the final count being announced, without legal challenge of the results. ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2016-10-29; known on 2016-11-12.
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The electors in the Electoral College will give both Trump and Pence >= 270 votes ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-11; known on 2016-12-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-19.
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LePen elected president of france, 2017 ( 43% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-10; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by regex on 2017-05-07.
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Donald Trump will be sworn in as President before February 2017 ( 89% confidence; 16 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10; known on 2017-02-01; judged right by mortehu on 2017-01-20.
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The Liberal Democrat candidate will win more votes than the Labour candidate in the Richmond Park by-election ( 64% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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Zac Goldsmith will win the Richmond Park by-election ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-12-02; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-12-02.
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I will get a response from R before 2016-11-10 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-03; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-10.
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The next elected President of the United States will be either a Republican or a Democrat. ( 97% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2016-11-11; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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'President Mike Pence' ( 14% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2024-12-31.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2019-01-01 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.
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I will come into work tomorrow ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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J will come into work tomorrow ( 92% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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A's BMI based on tomorrow's measurements will be greater than mine ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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I will weigh more tomorrow than I did today ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-05.
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A will weigh more than me tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-06.
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I will successfully arrive at my destination when travelling on 14/10/16 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-19.
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The seminar on Friday will go ahead. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-10-04; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-07.
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I will switch back to Windows for my general desktop/laptop computing before 2018-01-01 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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The next actor to play The Doctor (on Doctor Who) will be female. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-07-16.
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Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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One of John McCain or Paul Ryan will publicly withdraw support for Donald Trump in 2 months ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by hoka on 2016-08-09; known on 2016-10-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-10-08.
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I will get 100 catches of four balls this year ( 56% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-24.
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I will get 8 catches of six balls this year ( 43% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-10.
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I will get 7 catches of seven balls this year ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-04.
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I will get 15 catches of five balls this year ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-09-07.
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I will get 13 catches of five balls this year ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-08-08; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-08-30.
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At least one journalist/blogger jailed for criticizing President Trump ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by sflicht on 2021-01-02.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Conditioned on UK leaving the EU, Scotland will be in progress towards, or have achieved, the status of an independent state (or quasi-independent, e.g. with shared military) by the end of 2020. ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by blackRust on 2021-01-16.
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Conditional on the UK Government seeking permission from Parliament to invoke Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, the vote will pass. ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by blackRust on 2016-07-14; known on 2017-05-14; judged right by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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Rajoy will be Spain's next prime minister ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by predictit on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Corbyn will be put on the Labour leadership ballot ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2016-08-13; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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I will win the next game of chess I play with N ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-01-05; known on 2016-12-02; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-28.
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Owen Smith will be the next Labour leader. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Angela Eagle will be the next Labour leader. ( 15% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-22.
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Corbyn to become PM ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-12; known on 2020-07-05; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2020-07-09.
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May will preside over an early general election ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-11; known on 2019-11-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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William Lane Craig will lose his faith before he dies ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-08; known on 2056-08-07.
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AlphaGo will win 5-0 against Ke Jie. ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-11; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-10-20.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Liam Fox will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Andrea Leadsom will be the next leader of the conservative party ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Stephen Crabb will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-06.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election happening, Angela Eagle will enter ( 60% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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The Conservative party will split ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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The Labour party will split ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-01.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being called and conditional on Jeremy Corbyn being on the ballot, Corbyn will win ( 79% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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Conditional on a Labour leadership election being forced (ie, not as a result of Corbyn's resignation), Jeremy Corbyn will be on the ballot ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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There will be a Labour leadership election as a result of the aftermath of Brexit vote ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Labour will not appoint a new shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 20% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint somebody who is not an elected politician as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 5% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MEP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 1% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MP representing a non-Scottish constituency as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint a Labour MSP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 29% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Labour will appoint an SNP MP as shadow Scottish secretary following the resignation of their only MP in Scotland: Ian Murray ( 14% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-02.
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Jeremy Corbyn will resign over Brexit and the current Labour coup. ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-09-05.
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The Scottish Parliament will “veto” Brexit. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-04-03.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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David Cameron's successor will not formally invoke Article 50 (conditional on DC not doing it) ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-03-31.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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Another EU country will decide to leave before 2020 ( 44% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2020-01-01.
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Theresa May will be the next leader of the Conservative party. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-11.
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Boris Johnson will be the next leader of the Conservative Party ( 50% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-30.
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Prime minister Boris Johnson ( 37% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2019-08-31.
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Scotland will have another independence referendum and the result will be YES. ( 42% confidence; 16 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-03-23; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-02.
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I will start showing symptoms of norovirus before the end of the day. ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-21; known on 2016-06-21; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-21.
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Surface of the earth still habitable for human beings by 2050 (whether or not human beings are, in fact, on the surface) ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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Trump goes it alone, does not appoint a VP ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-10-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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A woman will not be the veep choice for the 2016 Clinton campaign ( 77% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-06-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-07-23.
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Prince William comes out as gay/bisexual. ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-16; known on 2080-01-01.
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I will continue to use Emacs, StumpWM & Screen as my primary workflow for four more years ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-16; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by ejlflop on 2020-06-16.
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Caitlyn Jenner = POTUS ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-11; known on 2056-01-01.
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I will win the Euros sweepstake at work. ( 7% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-09; known on 2016-07-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-25.
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Bernie Sanders endorses Hillary Clinton for President ( 76% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by splorridge on 2016-07-28.
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Adam's AI will win the AI battleships tournament ( 46% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2016-06-08; known on 2016-06-10; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-06-10.
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Hilary Clinton as next US President ( 55% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-07; known on 2016-11-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.
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Wales wins Euro 2016 ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-06-01; known on 2016-07-11; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-07-07.
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New Ghostbusters movie will make a profit ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-22; known on 2018-07-18; judged right by splorridge on 2016-10-03.
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The three “Deep South” states — Paraná, Santa Catarina, and Rio Grande do Sul – to secede from Brazil sometime before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2031-01-01.
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NYC will have at least 1 100-degree day in 2016 ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-01-17.