Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 43% | 63% | 71% | 83% | 93% | 95% | |
Sample Size | 373 | 575 | 496 | 412 | 690 | 110 | 2656 |
Displaying all predictions made by gwern. Filter by:
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2020-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2015. ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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Significant third party challengers will temporally emerge within the next eight years in the USA. ( 24% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Nadanate on 2012-11-13; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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There will be a 3Dmovie made of the Odyssey within three years. ( 20% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-12-29; known on 2015-12-28; judged wrong by NancyLebovitz on 2015-12-28.
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I will not be able to get a girlfriend before the end of 2013. ( 73% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-01-02.
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My blog (http://tuxedage.wordpress.com/) will exceed 100k words in length by the end of 2013. ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2012-12-28; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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Indian Supreme Court rules in favour of Novartis. ( 34% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-17; known on 2013-03-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-01.
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Logos01 will no longer be at his job within 3 months (inclusive of resignations, firings, etc.) ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-03-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-30.
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Ozzy Osbourne and Margaret Thatcher will both die on the same day. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by YourFriend on 2011-11-26; known on 2014-12-27; judged wrong by TheEIT on 2013-05-12.
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Donna Tam, news.com: Amazon smartphone in 2013 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-12-27; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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At least one more GNU project maintainer publicly resigns, citing similar reasons as the gnutls and sed maintainers. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by tedks on 2012-12-23; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by tedks on 2013-02-01.
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Aronwall will publically state that he drops his belief in Christianity after discussing his belief on his blog with other rationalists before the end of 2013. (See http://lesswrong.com/lw/fyt/wanted_rationalist_pushback/) ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ChristianKl on 2012-12-21; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2014-01-03.
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I will complete Uncharted: Drake's Fortune, Among Thieves, and Drake's Deception for PS3 in Spanish before 2014. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-12-19; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-01-16.
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Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.
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gwern.net total traffic will average >2000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-12-17.
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gwern.net referral traffic will average <1000 daily visits in the week a year from now ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-17; known on 2013-12-17; judged right by gwern on 2013-12-17.
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GB/$ of Flash/SSD=hard-drives in or by 2016 —William Hertling ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-26; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-01-01.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within 2 years ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-11-16.
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HP:MoR: Review-count of MoR to surpass UC within a year. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-16; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-11-16.
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Assassination Classroom: Kerosensei will be revealed to be ill or dying (target date a year from the start) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-08; known on 2015-11-08; judged right by drethelin on 2016-06-25.
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HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 7 days, have 66-383 reviews posted on FF.net ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.
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I will see a visible color difference in my photographs of my eye before and after iodine supplementation. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-05.
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DNB/nicotine day 37: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-04; known on 2012-11-04; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-04.
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Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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HP MoR: chapter 100 will, after 1 month, have 215-792 reviews posted on FF.net ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-01-14.
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Geoff Greer & co's YC application will result in an interview. ( 20% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-01-03.
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My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ggreer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by ggreer on 2012-11-16.
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DNB/nicotine day 36: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-03; known on 2012-11-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-03.
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New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
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New Star Wars movie out before end of 2015 ( 71% confidence; 17 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-12-16.
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DNB/nicotine day 35: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-02.
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DNB/nicotine day 34: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-01.
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Marijuana legalization will be a significant issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election. ( 33% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-30; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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Rossi's energy black box actually harnesses a third type of nuclear reaction ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-30; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-31.
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DNB/nicotine day 33: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-30; known on 2012-10-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-30.
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Romney will win Iowa ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Colorado ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-12-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Romney will win Florida ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will win Ohio ( 73% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
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My stolen iPad will not be found within 4 weeks. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-25; judged right by Qiaochu on 2012-11-27.
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The death toll from hurricane Sandy will be lower than that from Katrina. ( 88% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Matt on 2012-10-29; known on 2012-11-29; judged right by Matt on 2012-11-29.
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Conditional on a reply and clear answer, Charles Parlapanides will claim Parlapanides' authorship. ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.
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Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month and will clearly confirm or deny authorship. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-11-28.
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Charles Parlapanides will reply to my message on Twitter within 1 month, ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-28; known on 2012-11-28; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-29.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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DNB/nicotine day 32: active? ( 45% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-25; known on 2012-10-25; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-25.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Bernanke will continue as Fed chairman ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-02-15; judged wrong by dk on 2014-03-23.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, Tim Geithner won't continue as treasury secretary ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-06-15.
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Donald Trump won't pay out on his $5m offer to Obama to release educational transcripts ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Assuming Obama wins second term, repubs will try to impeach him sometime during the his second term ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-24; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 31: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-23; known on 2012-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-23.
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DNB/nicotine day 30: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-22; known on 2012-10-22; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-22.
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DNB/nicotine day 29: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-21; known on 2012-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-21.
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Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
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Within ten years, at least one planet of < 3 Earth masses will be discovered in one of the liquid water habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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Within ten years, a planet will be discovered in at least one of the (liquid water) habitable zones in the Alpha Centauri system. ( 56% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-10-17; known on 2022-10-18.
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DNB/nicotine day 28: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-17.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.
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By the end of 2013, I will have made at least 500 predictions on PB.com. ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2012-10-15; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2014-01-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 27: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-14; known on 2012-10-14; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-14.
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Most of the gene sites accounting for the additive heritability of g (0.6) will be identified by 2021. — Steve Hsu ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-13; known on 2022-01-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 26: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-13; known on 2012-10-13; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-13.
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DNB/nicotine day 25: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-10; known on 2012-10-10; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-10.
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DNB/nicotine day 24: active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-09; known on 2012-10-09; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-09.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2018 ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2018-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=2048-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2016 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2020 ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10.
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D-Wave will be commercially selling a >=1024-qubit quantum annealing chip by 2015 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2015-01-01.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 10 years ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2022-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-10-06.
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D-Wave will be bankrupt, bought, or defunct in 5 years ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-06; known on 2017-10-06; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-10-06.
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They'll clone a woolly mammoth by 2040 ( 55% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-05; known on 2040-12-31.
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Eliezer's Sequences will be published by the Singularity Institute as an ebook (in Kindle, PDF, or iBooks format) sometime between Nov. 1st 2012 and Mar. 1st 2013. ( 66% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-03-02; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2013-03-02.
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DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-03; known on 2012-10-03; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-10-03.
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DNB/nicotine day 23: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-02; known on 2012-10-02; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-02.
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If your head is cryogenically frozen, you will be alive in 2100. — Robin Hanson ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Our descendants will colonize millions of star systems within ten thousand years or so. — Robin Hanson ( 27% confidence; 14 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 9999-01-01.
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By 2100, the vast majority of “people” will be immortal computers running brain simulations. — Robin Hanson ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2101-01-01.
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Machine translation no worse than human translation by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 65% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Diagnosing standard medical conditions routinely involves DNA testing by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 68% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Reproductive human cloning widely socially accepted by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 32% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Effective HIV vaccine developed by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 69% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Goldbach's conjecture proven by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.
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Robust mouse rejuvenation by 2020 — Aubrey de Grey ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2021-01-01.
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The Arab-Israeli conflict is not over by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 72% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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Russia and Morocco have joined the European Union, and the EU slowly takes on the character of a nation; it has a common foreign policy and a standing army by 2040. — Axel Boldt ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2041-01-01.
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A paper written or co-written by me is accepted for publication in the journal Utilitas by 2013 ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Pablo on 2014-01-01.
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By the time most of the world’s population has made the transition to a vegan or cultured-meat diet, the rearing of other sentient beings for human consumption will be illegal under international law. — David Pearce ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 16 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-10-01; known on 2070-01-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 22: active? ( 55% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-10-01; known on 2012-10-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-01.
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DNB/nicotine day 21: active? ( 40% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-09-30; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-30.
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Sal Khan: average human lifespan in developed countries at least a hundred years by 2060. ( 36% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Pablo on 2012-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.
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I will not publish an NYT bestseller in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 5 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2014-01-01.
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I won't upgrade to iPhone 5 before February 2013. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-02-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-02-01.
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I will not pass Eliezer in LW karma in the next 10 years. ( 82% confidence; 15 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2022-09-29; judged right by lukeprog on 2022-09-29.
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I'll lose 10 pounds before Summit 2012. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2012-10-15; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-15.
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I won't try polyphasic sleep in 2012. ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by lukeprog on 2013-01-01.
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Between 2016-2116, at least 1 American President will be neither Democratic or Republican. ( 51% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2116-11-05.
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Earth will still exist in current form, most humans non-uploaded, and disease & old age & work & natural birth still existing —MixedNuts ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2112-09-27.
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No paper primarily about Geoff Anders' Connection Theory will be published in a peer-reviewed psychology journal in the next 5 years. ( 89% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-27; known on 2017-09-27; judged right by lukeprog on 2017-09-27.
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DNB/nicotine day 20: active? ( 65% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-27; known on 2012-09-27; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-09-27.