Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 71% | 50% | 83% | 82% | 60% | |
Sample Size | 2 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 22 | 5 | 50 |
Displaying all predictions made by Konkvistador. Filter by:
-
50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.
-
“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
-
Barack Obama will win reelection. ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by TheHumanite on 2011-06-06; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
-
Assuming a 2nd Obama term, “The result will be widely attributed to an improving economy (in the media and in polls and whether or not the economy actually improves)” —Jack ( 88% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2012-11-20; judged wrong by Torquil on 2012-11-24.
-
The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >500 comments ( 63% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Konkvistador on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by Athrelon on 2012-12-30.
-
The “Anonymous Narratives by LW Women” thread will receive >100 comments ( 89% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrelon on 2012-09-09; known on 2013-12-31; judged right by beo_shaffer on 2012-09-12.
-
Robin Hanson & Katja Grace will be in a publicly-known romantic relationship at some point in the next 10 years ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-02; known on 2022-09-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-09-02.
-
The mens' rights movement will be mentioned by name in a Time or Newsweek article sometime during 2012. ( 33% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
-
If Obama is re-elected, then a white male will go on a “shooting spree” and the shooter will mention the “political climate” as a motivating factor. If the antecedent proposition is false, then this prediction will be withdrawn. ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-01-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2013-01-03.
-
In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.
-
North Korea will be wealthier than Afghanistan in 2061. —Scott Sumner ( 73% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-03; known on 2061-01-01.
-
In 2038 the population of the US will be 2 billion, none of them illegal. -Moldbug ( 9% confidence; 14 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-10-24; known on 2039-01-01.
-
Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
-
I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
-
Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
-
By 2020, one of Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, George W. Bush, Paul Wolfowitz, John Bolton, Richard Myers, or Peter Pace will state he had advanced knowledge of the 9/11 attacks or helped plan those attacks. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
-
GJP: Kim Jong-Il or his designated successor to be in charge of North Korea as of December 31, 2012 ( 86% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by gwern on 2012-12-31.
-
No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
-
The current criteria for awarding the “Poseidon award” offered by the seastead insitute, will be met by someone by 2015. ( 3% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-08-30; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by a0c4a123f7 on 2016-01-01.
-
“In the next 10 years, I expect at least five billion people worldwide to own smartphones” —Marc Andreessen ( 78% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-20; known on 2021-08-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-08-20.
-
Dow Jones below 10,000 at end of year. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-05; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
Terence Tao will solve the Clay Institute problem on the Navier-Stokes equation (or prove it cannot be done) within the next five years. ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-05; known on 2016-08-05; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-08-05.
-
The US Democratic Party fragments before the 2016 primary season. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-08-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-16.
-
Robin Hanson's brain will be cryogenically frozen. ( 47% confidence; 23 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-03; known on 2041-01-01.
-
By 2050 the US per capita GDP will have declined to 90% or less of its 2004 value. ( 16% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Konkvistador on 2011-07-21; known on 2051-02-01.
-
Between January and June 2017 (inclusive), I will enter text into my computers and the majority of this text will be entered using a physical keyboard with physical buttons that depress at least 2.5mm ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-07-21; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-07-01.
-
Spot gold price will touch at least $2000 by December 31, 2012. ( 52% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dakyne on 2011-07-16; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by dakyne on 2013-01-01.
-
The US dept ceiling will be raised by August 2 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-07-15; known on 2011-08-02; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-02.
-
By 2061, India will be the world's largest economy —Scott Sumner ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-10; known on 2061-01-01; judged right by Vaibhav_Srivastva on 2020-12-01.
-
We will be using a cloud based rendering solution for animations in under 2 months ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-07-02; known on 2011-09-02; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2011-09-02.
-
the average lifespan will be eighty-five to ninety in 2100. —S. Jay Olshansky ( 7% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-29; known on 2100-01-01.
-
“The fertility rate in China drops below the replacement level, and nothing the government can do can get Chinese couples to have more than 1.5 kids each.” ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
-
90% chance of AI by 2050 —Shane Legg ( 47% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2050-01-01.
-
10% chance of AI by 2018 —Shane Legg ( 8% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
-
'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
-
This summer in North hemisphere will be the hottest weather ever. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Eunseo on 2011-04-11; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by Sandra Åhlén on 2011-09-18.
-
Gaddafi will not be in power in Libya beyond 2011. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by maxdemian on 2011-03-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-10-21.
-
'Continuing riots in major European cities over the imposition of austerity measures: 80%.' —Skatche ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by Tuxedage on 2013-01-13.
-
GRRM dies before finishing A Song of Ice and Fire ( 49% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2040-01-01.
-
'Wind power will provide more actual electricity than nuclear power by 2021, 80%' —taw ( 34% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01.
-
'Kim Jong Il steps down or dies this year' —scav ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-19.
-
'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Protects cryonics patients.' —icebrand ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-01-01.
-
'In 2011, a new law will be proposed in some jurisdiction which specifically: Restricts cryonics activity.' —icebrand ( 10% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'SpaceX will successfully complete orbit-matching and docking with the International Space Station' —Sketerpot ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-07; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'Clashes between North Korea and South Korea will result in fatalities' —JoshuaZ ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
'At least one head pastor of a Protestant megachurch in the US will be found to be engaging in homosexual activity. For purposes of this prediction “megachurch” means a church with regular attendance of 3000 people at Sunday services.' —JoshuaZ ( 32% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
The US Federal Reserve is not audited by the US government in 2011. —Kevin ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-06; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
3D Televisions using a technology that doesn't require expensive glasses to view in 3D will outsell those that do require such glasses by the end of 2011 ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by scav on 2011-01-05; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
Facebook will be less visitors in 2011 ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Laus_CB on 2011-01-04; known on 2011-11-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-01.
-
Half-Life 3 announced by Valve in 2011. —Game Informer ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-31.
-
Oil prices at >=$120 by Jan 2012 ( 52% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-02; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by faws on 2012-01-01.
-
Fidel Castro will not die in 2011 ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
By December 2011 at least one of Ireland, Portugal, Spain, or Italy will leave the Euro —Capitol Commentary ( 19% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-01-01; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
-
by 2012 America will become an undeveloped nation, that there will be a revolution marked by food riots, squatter rebellions, tax revolts and job marches, and that holidays will be more about obtaining food, not gifts. —Gerald Celente ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
“The Internet will become overloaded, causing brownouts and then outright gridlock. From 2012, PCs and laptops are likely to operate at a much reduced speed, rendering the internet an “unreliable toy” —Ted Ritter ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-04; known on 2012-06-06; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-06-06.
-
“By 2012, scientists will have announced a cure for breast cancer and mastectomies will have become almost obsolete” ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.
-
Inflation in US will be higher that 7% by 2012 ( 36% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by borisbrev on 2009-11-04; known on 2012-12-16; judged wrong by ledflyd on 2012-12-16.
-
In 2060 there will be a human alive with age 140 or older. ( 46% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ChristianKl on 2009-10-17; known on 2060-12-31.
-
There will be an earthquake in California that results in at least 1000 human deaths before 2012. ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by anonym on 2009-10-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-01-01.