Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 53% | 65% | 69% | 83% | 89% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 15 | 23 | 35 | 24 | 27 | 5 | 129 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jach. Filter by:
-
I will finish 8 or more books this year ( 75% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2020-01-03.
-
I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2018-01-02; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
-
Godot 3.0 will have a stable release by the end of the year ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2018-01-02.
-
In 5 years programmers will be expected to write formally proven programs to the same or more extent as they're expected to write tests today ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2022-11-17; judged wrong by crabman on 2022-11-17.
-
US dollar becomes an asset-backed currency under Trump's first term ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2017-11-17; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-22.
-
Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
-
Trump will win a second term ( 46% confidence; 74 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by regex on 2017-01-30; known on 2020-11-08; judged wrong by regex on 2020-11-20.
-
I will finish 6 or more books this year ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2017-01-03; known on 2018-01-03; judged right by Jach on 2018-01-02.
-
Donal Trump will be inaugurated President ( 97% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by asyks on 2016-12-27; known on 2017-01-20; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-20.
-
AlphaGo defeats Lee Sedol in 3/5 or more games in March ( 64% confidence; 76 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-04-01; judged right by Jach on 2016-03-12.
-
Lee Sedol will win match against AlphaGo but lose at least one game ( 35% confidence; 25 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-28; known on 2016-05-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-12.
-
Computers will beat the best humans at Go before 2017 ( 54% confidence; 21 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by Houshalter on 2016-01-11; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Houshalter on 2016-03-15.
-
Gentoo will remain my primary OS over the next decade ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2026-01-10.
-
I am still at SFDC in 5 years ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2020-08-22.
-
I am still at SFDC in 3 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2019-01-01.
-
I am still at SFDC in one year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.
-
Ten wins in Haylee (3p) v. Ten (1p) on OGS ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2016-01-10; known on 2016-01-11; judged wrong by Jach on 2016-01-10.
-
By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
-
Bitcoin will reach at least 600 USD for at least 24 hours on at least 2 major exchanges at some point in 2016 ( 47% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Afforess on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by mortehu on 2016-06-25.
-
I will still be employed at my current job one year after my start date. ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28; known on 2016-10-05; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-10-05.
-
Craig S. Wright will not (in the next year) demonstrate possession of the key with fingerprint DE4E FCA3 E1AB 9E41 CE96 CECB 18C0 9E86 5EC9 48A1, nor of any other key or bitcoin convincingly belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto. ( 82% confidence; 18 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by James Babcock on 2015-12-09; known on 2016-12-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-09.
-
Price of Bitcoin end of 2014 to be more than $600 ( 67% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-07-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2015-01-01.
-
Barack Obama to attempt to run for a third term as President (either through Constitutional amendment or other method). ( 0% confidence; 41 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-11-24; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
-
I will be satisfied with project demo ( 66% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-12-06; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-12-11.
-
PCB finished and sent for printing by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.
-
Time-lapse dolly motorized and controlled by uC by end of week 7 ( 30% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-15; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-17.
-
Python SAR algorithm done by end of week 6 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-09.
-
All needed parts ordered by end of week 5 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2013-10-23; known on 2013-11-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-11-02.
-
The price of Bitcoin will be <=$50 before 20 December 2013. ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-10-19; known on 2013-12-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-12-20.
-
no new chapters of hpmor will be finished by October 1st ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Flipnash on 2013-09-13; known on 2013-10-01; judged right by apeterson on 2013-10-01.
-
[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
-
I will finish Judea Pearl's Causality (2nd edition) by the time it is due back to the library (8/28/13) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mavant on 2013-08-08; known on 2013-08-28; judged wrong by mavant on 2013-11-26.
-
Rand Paul will win the presidential election. He will go against the NSA, surveillance, drone strikes… all the “hot issues” for the new generation. Thousands of people will register as Republicans and vote for him to fight for a free Internet. ( 3% confidence; 21 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by tinatoys on 2013-08-03; known on 2016-11-06; judged wrong by jgauthier on 2016-11-07.
-
A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.
-
At least 1 person taking part in the July2013 Leverage polyphasic adaptation will STILL be on a nap-only schedule (e.g. uberman) as of Sept 1, 2013. ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-07-22; known on 2013-09-01; judged wrong by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-09-01.
-
Half-Life 3 will be announced this summer ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by alecbrooks on 2013-06-29; known on 2013-09-23; judged wrong by alecbrooks on 2013-09-23.
-
Ubuntu will create its very own Kernel within the next five years, ( 13% confidence; 18 wagers; 20 comments )
Created by peterc on 2013-05-28; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by moyamo on 2018-06-13.
-
The Opportunity rover will continue doing science (either mobile or as a fixed station) until at least December 1, 2013 ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-05-01; known on 2013-12-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-03.
-
Facebook stock will go below 20 this month. ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2013-05-01; judged wrong by hedges on 2013-05-01.
-
Bitcoin is exchanged at or below $2 by early July ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2013-04-03; known on 2013-07-08; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-07-08.
-
Bitcoin will hit the $30 mark (currently $100) sometime in the next 2 months. ( 30% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-04-01; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2013-07-02.
-
NFL: Chicago Bears will beat the Seattle Seahawks in Week 13 of the 2012 season ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RandomNFL on 2012-11-29; known on 2012-12-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-12-03.
-
Jesus returns to planet earth before the end of 2012. ( 0% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Torquil on 2012-11-24; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Flipnash on 2013-08-17.
-
The US economy will be “worse” in 2016 than in 2012 (i.e. both R and D Presidential candidates will say the economy is worse) ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-07; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by Jach on 2017-01-03.
-
In 2016, Sound Transit closes down center roadway on I-90 to begin installing light rail ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2012-11-05; known on 2016-12-31; judged right by Jach on 2017-01-03.
-
Barack Obama will serve a second term as president of the United States continuous with his present term ( 70% confidence; 99 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by MBlume on 2009-10-14; known on 2012-11-05; judged right by smijer on 2012-11-07.
-
New Star Wars movie will be better than Phantom Menace and Attack of the Clones ( 70% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2015-12-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-12-28.
-
Housemate one-boxes ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-10-17; known on 2012-10-17; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-10-17.
-
Silk Road will be closed by July 1st, 2013 —BetsofBitcoin ( 19% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-25; known on 2013-07-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
-
Beyond 2011 and 2010, Romney will eventually release more tax returns before the election. ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-22; known on 2012-11-05; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
-
In the next ten years, scientists will publish a paper in a refereed journal claiming to have experimentally moved matter faster than the speed of light. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-18; known on 2022-09-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-09-25.
-
Hezbollah disbanded by 2020 ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-09-19; known on 2020-06-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-17.
-
The Ouya video game console will be shipped & delivered in March 2013, on schedule. ( 11% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-18; known on 2013-04-30; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-04-30.
-
Eliezer will start posting his Open FAI problems sequence to LessWrong.com in September 2012. ( 47% confidence; 16 wagers )
Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2012-10-01; judged wrong by lukeprog on 2012-10-01.
-
I will make >$5000 through bitcoins ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-08-27; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-12-15.
-
My Little Pony: Friendship is Magic season 3 will open with a two-part episode ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Grognor on 2012-05-29; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by Grognor on 2012-09-14.
-
HP MoR: Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality will be completed by 2015. ( 58% confidence; 28 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-19; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2015-01-01.
-
Princess Luna appears in 2-part wedding finale ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2012-04-02; known on 2012-04-21; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.
-
WrestleMania XXVIII: Cody Rhodes defeats Big Show ( 49% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.
-
WrestleMania XXVIII: Randy Orton defeats Kane ( 49% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-04-02.
-
WrestleMania XXVIII: CM Punk defeats Chris Jericho ( 55% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
-
WrestleMania XXVIII: The Undertaker defeats Triple H ( 90% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
-
WrestleMania XXVIII: The Rock defeats John Cena ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-22; known on 2012-04-02; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-02.
-
I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Jach on 2012-03-16; known on 2012-04-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-04-21.
-
Recompile of qutecom depending on boost-1.42 instead of boost-1.46 will by itself fix segfault error ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-02-09; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-10.
-
I will finish reading any of my books to completion ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-02-09; known on 2012-03-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2012-03-16.
-
I'll get a girlfriend this year. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-02-02; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by wallowinmaya on 2013-01-03.
-
Homework due this week will be done on time ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-30; known on 2012-02-04; judged right by Jach on 2012-02-01.
-
“Reduce term of copyrights to a maximum of 56 years” petition will reach 25k signatures by the deadline. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-01-26; known on 2012-02-20; judged wrong by ahartell on 2012-02-20.
-
“There will only be three languages in the world – English, Spanish and Mandarin” —Bill Walker, BBC ( 2% confidence; 34 wagers; 24 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-24; known on 2112-01-01.
-
I will “remember my name, or soon learn it” for MSN contact sparky_tails for something Microsoft-related ( 10% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2012-01-03; known on 2013-01-16; judged wrong by ewang on 2013-01-19.
-
The new Silk Road URL will be revealed to be a scam/phishing/law enforcement one. ( 12% confidence; 6 wagers; 109 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-12-02; known on 2012-12-02; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-12-02.
-
I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
-
A complete functional simulation of the C. elegans nervous system will exist on 2014-06-08; 76% —David Dalrymple ( 24% confidence; 9 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-31; known on 2014-06-08; judged wrong by waveman on 2014-06-08.
-
I will complete Project Euler Problem #2 within the next 14 days. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-31; known on 2011-11-14; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-14.
-
The average of this bet will be 90% to 100% until friday. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Metus on 2011-10-28; known on 2011-11-05; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-05.
-
I will have all latework caught-up by Friday ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-10-28; judged wrong by Jach on 2011-10-29.
-
LoZ: Skyward Sword will receive an IGN score of 9.8/10 or higher ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-10-23; known on 2011-11-25; judged right by kpreid on 2011-11-13.
-
I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
-
“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
-
The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
-
CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
-
Gaddafi will be killed or captured ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Dylan on 2011-09-08; known on 2011-09-30; judged wrong by Dylan on 2011-09-30.
-
I will be killed or more than slightly injured skydiving for the first time Saturday ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-09-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-03.
-
I will be put on moderation/expelled from the Miyazaki mailing list for providing a public archive ( 39% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-01; known on 2011-10-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-10-01.
-
Madonna's new movie “W.E.” will get 80% or better from critics on Rotten Tomatoes ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Øx on 2011-08-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-01-02.
-
“Will Ron Paul to win a Republican primary/caucus in 2012?” —Intrade ( 14% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-29; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-01-01.
-
A Latin poem roughly the same as posted will appear in HP:MoR inside Bacon's diary either as a quote or written by Bacon. ( 67% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-22; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-01.
-
I will find a buyer for my car with a blown head gasket for >= $800 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-01-16; judged right by Jach on 2011-10-22.
-
Clojure becomes dominant JVM language on GitHub ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2016-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-16.
-
Nintendo officially offers bluetooth controllers with game-pack slot attachment devices for cell phones ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2013-10-16; judged wrong by Jach on 2013-10-16.
-
Second edition of 3DS out by Christmas 2012 ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by Jach on 2012-08-27.
-
The Hobbit Part 1 will gross more on its opening weekend than LotR: Return of the King ( 71% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-08-18; known on 2012-12-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-12-16.
-
Michele Bachmann will be revealed as a drug addict before Election Day ( 9% confidence; 10 wagers; 73 comments )
Created by Jach on 2011-07-20; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-06.
-
HPMOR will update again by October 20th ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-08-17; known on 2011-10-21; judged right by gwern on 2011-08-25.
-
Syrian president Bashar al-Assad will lose control over his country in 2011. ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.
-
I will have watched every video on Khan Academy by August 2013. ( 39% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2013-08-17; judged wrong by dk on 2013-11-04.
-
By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
-
Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
-
“Japan to announce it has acquired a nuclear weapon before midnight ET on 31 Dec 2011” —Intrade ( 16% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-14; known on 2011-12-31; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-12-31.