Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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Nothing very spectacular will happen in the stock market in the next couple of months. ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-10-23.
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Will google's new javascript replacemant, “Dart”, have significant use in the next 3 years ( 15% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by drpowell on 2012-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by drpowell on 2015-10-23.
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Complete marathon ( 20% confidence )
Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-10-23.
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Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.
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I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.
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If the Democratic Health Reform plan passes, private, group insurance premiums will increase more than 30% by 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-19; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by freyley on 2015-10-22.
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Will not be Teacher's Aide for a third semester. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass CIT 110 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass CIT 110 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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Will pass FDREL 121 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged wrong by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.
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I will receive a written reprimand tomorrow. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-22.
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Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.
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I'll have a test on Tuesday. ( 60% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for TI6 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Spring 2016 Dota 2 major tournament ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-06-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Winter 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2016-04-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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Valve will use the Reborn client for the Fall 2015 Dota 2 major tournament ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by _W_ on 2015-08-27; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by _W_ on 2015-10-20.
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I will complete my next 30day pushup challenge inside the 30 allotted days ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-20.
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I will miss one of tomorrow's flights. ( 7% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-19.
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I will have officially switched to PhB by next semester. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Calien on 2015-01-07; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by Calien on 2015-10-19.
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Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.
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Line at the barber will be less than ten minutes. ( 80% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-18; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19.
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463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60. ( 42% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60 ( 90% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60. ( 63% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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Average for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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I will finish grading my 463 students' midterm by midnight EST tonight. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I know tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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The next (new) person I have sex with will not be someone I meet in a pub or a club ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-04-11; known on 2015-11-06; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will find Rory's next sexual partner attractive. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-14; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.
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Something sweet is baking in the oven. ( 60% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17.
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SO will dominate me in grappling, routinely. ( 70% confidence )
Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13; known on 2016-01-13; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16.
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We will stop seeing each other ( 60% confidence )
Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-16.
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Created by RoryS on 2015-04-18; known on 2015-06-10; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-16.
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The girl that messaged me last night is a real human. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-13; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-16.
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I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.
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CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Ebola will be considered endemic in a year. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NancyLebovitz on 2014-10-14; known on 2015-10-14; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12.
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TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.
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Nicholas Wade will still be employed by the New York Times in a year. ( 40% confidence; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-30; known on 2015-04-30; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-09.
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At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.
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H. will be late at work ( 80% confidence )
Created by Medea on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-10; judged right by Medea on 2015-10-09.
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Angela Merkel to win peace Nobel price ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by dhoe on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2015-10-09.
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I think Russia will aggress other countries, too, not just Ukraine. ( 85% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by mayanju on 2015-08-19; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2015-10-09.
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Sam will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 94% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.
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I will attend the 2015 Burning Man. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-01-10; known on 2015-09-05; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-08.