They will have started Phase 3 clinical trials in the US of a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2045-01-01
- RandomThinker estimated 65% on 2012-09-15
- RandomThinker on 2012-09-15
- RandomThinker said “Just tested a proof of concept brain implant in a monkey http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/14/health/research/brain-implant-improves-thinking-in-monkeys.html?hpw” on 2012-09-15
- RandomThinker changed their prediction from “They will test a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045” on 2012-09-15
- William-Quixote estimated 70% and said “Betting on pre 2025, rather than post 2045” on 2012-09-16
- JoshuaZ estimated 52% on 2012-09-16
- gwern said “please clarify: ‘test’ meaning clinical trials? and what if it is useful for intelligence upgrade & improving sub-average people which includes the ill?” on 2012-09-16
- RandomThinker said “yes clinical trials. ok for side effect of improving intel but tested for treatment” on 2012-09-16
- NathanMcKnight estimated 10% and said “Doesn’t this already exist? http://www.gmanetwork.com/news/story/232932/scitech/brain-implant-helps-parkinson-s-patient” on 2012-09-17
- RandomThinker said “@Nathan, you’re right. They already exist. See also, http://www.guardian.co.uk/science/2012/may/16/brain-implant-paralysed-woman-robot-thoughts” on 2012-09-22
- RandomThinker said “I’m going to change my prediction to starting Phase 3 clinical trials (ie large scale human trials) in the US, that’s pretty serious milestone ” on 2012-09-22
- RandomThinker changed their prediction from “They will test a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025” on 2012-09-22
- RandomThinker changed their prediction from “They will have started Phase 3 clinical trials in the US a brain implant in humans (for Alzheimers, brain damage or disease, not for intelligence upgrade) by 2045 and not before 2025” on 2012-09-22
- NathanMcKnight estimated 80% on 2012-09-24
- scaphandre estimated 0% and said “Deep brain stimulation implants are already used extensively for Parkinsons. Phase 3 clinical trials were completed successfully last year. http://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00053625 So I say it has happened before 2025, and so very low chance.” on 2012-09-26
- RandomThinker said “@scap thx for finding that. Looks like I’m out of my depth and this is already existing. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Deep_brain_stimulation” on 2012-09-26
- RandomThinker withdrew the prediction on 2012-09-26
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