Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 51% | 60% | 66% | 81% | 92% | 97% | |
Sample Size | 137 | 234 | 231 | 257 | 634 | 119 | 1612 |
Displaying all predictions made by PseudonymousUser. Filter by:
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At the end of 2012, the Poincaré conjecture will remain the only solved Millennium Prize Problem. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Qiaochu on 2013-01-01.
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predictionbook.com, as it functions now, will still exist by 2015. ( 81% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by fork on 2011-11-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-01-01.
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“3D printing” will be a multi-billion dollar industry by 2021. ( 71% confidence; 14 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-14.
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I will play multiplayer UT2004 for over 4 hours before 2012-09 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-05-05.
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Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will re-subscribe to Netflix at any point before 2013 ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Evidence of extraterrestrial life will be discovered by 2017. ( 11% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2017-01-01.
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PragmataPro open-sourcing campaign will reach its $220,000 goal ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-11; known on 2012-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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I will have read Godel, Escher, Bach by 18th November. ( 21% confidence; 9 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2011-11-11; known on 2011-11-18; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-17.
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I will still be alive in 2013. ( 99% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2014-02-22.
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I will make a prediction on PB in 2012. ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2012-01-02.
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Sister Y still alive in 2013. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-01-02.
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Anna Salamon will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-09.
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Alicorn will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2013-01-01.
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I will finish my voice recording+transcription viewer before 2012 ( 88% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-29.
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I will watch all of the second season of Game of Thrones, before 2013 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Luke Muehlhauser will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-12.
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Raymond Kurzweil will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2013-01-01.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Robin Hanson will make a prediction on PredictionBook before 2013. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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The unemployment rate in Singapore will not exceed 5% in 2012. ( 73% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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I will do at least 70 Anki reps/day on average this month. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-10; known on 2011-12-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-01.
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Before 2013, a new version of Chrome will be released with support for Side Tabs or vertical tabs, or there will be an equivalent or better extension that implements this functionality ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-10; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-03.
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If I play Deus Ex 3 in 2012, then I will rate it higher than Deus Ex 2. ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-06; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2013-01-02.
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Hypothes.is kickstarter project gets fully funded (see http://www.kickstarter.com/projects/dwhly/1239089754) ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Laurent Bossavit on 2011-11-06; known on 2011-11-13; judged right by Anubhav on 2011-11-13.
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lukeprog will receive <50 individual items of feedback through his form in the next month. ( 66% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-05; known on 2011-12-05; judged right by gwern on 2011-12-05.
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Either Mitt Romney or Barack Obama will win the 2012 Presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers )
Created by HonoreDB on 2011-11-04; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by HonoreDB on 2012-11-07.
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Google+ will surpass Facebook in 2013 (in number of users and level of interaction) ( 16% confidence; 27 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by sameganegie on 2011-11-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2014-01-01.
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'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.
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I will still use Beeminder in a month. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-12-03; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-03.
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I will still use Beeminder in a week. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-03; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by muflax on 2011-11-09.
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Obama gets reelected and during that time Hillary Clinton brokers the middle east peace deal between Israel and Palestine for the two state solution. This secures her presidency in 2016. ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lionflower on 2011-11-02; known on 2014-09-09; judged wrong by Anubhav on 2014-09-09.
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My Introduction to Java deck will be the most downloaded Anki deck containing the word “Java” on 03-01-2012. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-02; known on 2012-03-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-03-03.
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LW: average IQ in survey will be 140-145. ( 33% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-11-01; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by muflax on 2011-12-04.
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I will play through the original Deus Ex again before 2013 ( 19% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will buy a MacBook Air before 2013 ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will read at least a third of Getting Things Done before 2012 ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2012-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-11-07.
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I will use org-mode at least 180/365 days in 2012 ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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I will write a 300+ line Clojure/ClojureScript program before 2013 ( 69% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-31; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Reddit: guy who signed birth certificate of another man's child will get sued for child support before 2013. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-30; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2013-07-01.
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iqtest.dk will give me a higher score when I don't answer any questions ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27; known on 2011-10-27; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-27.
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At least one of my two Samsung HDDs will fail before 2013. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-10-26; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2014-01-01.
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SM replied to the pro-libertarian comment posted on his blog ( 20% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-25.
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Before 2012, the United States will lose its triple-A credit rating from Moody's or Fitch (or both) ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-23; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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Apple will make Siri available to iPhone 4 users, before 2013. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-22; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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Konkvistador has obstructive sleep apnea ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2013-10-21; judged wrong by Grognor on 2014-06-15.
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Steve Jobs' brain was cryopreserved or plastinated within two weeks of declaration of death, and this is known before 2070. ( 4% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-21; known on 2070-01-01.
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i will use prediction book tomorrow ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by divad12 on 2011-10-21; known on 2011-10-22; judged right by divad12 on 2011-10-22.
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I will abstain from sexual activity (porn, masturbation, orgasm) until January 31st, 2012. ( 45% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Arkanj3l on 2011-10-20; known on 2012-01-31; judged wrong by Arkanj3l on 2012-05-26.
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At any point before 2100, 5 billion humans (or emulated humans) are alive and physically within 3000 km of each other. ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-19; known on 2100-01-01.
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“Ron Paul to dropout of the 2012 Presidential race before midnight ET 05 Feb 2012” -Intrade ( 6% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-10-19; known on 2012-02-05; judged wrong by gwern on 2012-02-06.
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ROSAT will reenter by November 2 ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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No human fatalities will result from the ROSAT reentry. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-19; known on 2011-11-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-23.
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D will call me back today ( 70% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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D will visit me today ( 50% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16; known on 2011-10-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-16.
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Google Code Search or an equivalent/better successor product from Google will be publicly accessible on 2012-02-15 UTC ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-15; known on 2012-02-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-02-28.
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Hacknotifier.com will get >10k visits in the next 30 days. ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by rahul on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-11-10; judged right by Julian Pulgarin on 2011-11-09.
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Chrome will ship with the initial release of Android “Ice Cream Sandwich” ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2011-12-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-12-01.
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The initial release of Windows Server 8 (or whatever it's renamed to) will ship with a filesystem that writes and verifies checksums for data integrity purposes ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 117 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2012-12-03.
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Chrome will ship with the first public release of Android “Jelly Bean” (or whatever the major version after “Ice Cream Sandwich” is called) ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-12; known on 2012-12-01; judged right by ygert on 2012-12-27.
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Critical Windows updates will be released today (UTC) ( 99% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11; known on 2011-10-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-11.
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The world will exist on 2012-12-22 (day after the widely hyped end) ( 99% confidence; 43 wagers; 21 comments )
Created by Daniel Mehkeri on 2011-10-10; known on 2012-12-22; judged right by kuudes on 2016-12-21.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Michael Clear and this is known before 2060 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Satoshi Nakamoto is just Wei Dai and this is known before 2060 ( 13% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-10; known on 2060-01-01.
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Before 2013, a new version of NetHack (with version number > 3.4.3) will be available on nethack.org ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-09; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.
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AT&T will continue doing maintenance on the phone line near my house today ( 70% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2011-10-08.
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I will be able to earn a reliable living off writing and possible start-ups that I'm involved in by the end of 2013. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by Kaj_Sotala on 2014-01-01.
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Andrea Rossi's 1 MW plant based on his energy catalyzer invention will not succeed within a year. ( 96% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Kaj_Sotala on 2011-10-08; known on 2012-10-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-10-08.
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“I predict that by 2020 Nike will be the only remaining sneaker company” —Whutsiznaim ( 6% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict that by 2020, China will ban foreign men from entering China, except for special cases.” ( 9% confidence; 26 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.
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Google & Samsung will announce the Nexus Prime and Ice Cream Sandwich at CTIA on 2011-10-11 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Robert Kosten on 2011-10-04; known on 2011-10-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-10-07.
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Eliezer Yudkowsky's book on rationality will be published within 3 years. ( 46% confidence; 25 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2014-10-04; judged wrong by gwern on 2014-10-04.
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My next full practice SAT score will be over 2050 ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Isaac on 2011-10-01; known on 2011-10-15; judged wrong by Isaac on 2011-10-17.
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Apple will announce a 128GB+ (non-HDD) iPod or closest iPod Touch successor, before 2012 ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-29; known on 2012-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2012-01-01.
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India's first manned spaceflight by 2017. ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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'Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history' ( 89% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2015-09-10; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-09.
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“By 2040, less than 5% of the global population is smoking.” ( 40% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2040-01-01.
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Nintendo launches Wii 2/Wii U ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2013-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2013-01-01.
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Germany to decommission all nuclear reactors by 2023 ( 53% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2023-01-01.
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The Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite will strike a person, residence, or vehicle, where the impact results in at least one human death (that we know about) before 2011-10-25 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-24; known on 2011-10-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-26.
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'Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 1 year' ( 70% confidence; 38 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-23; known on 2012-09-23; judged right by gwern on 2012-09-08.
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Recent CERN reports of faster than light neutrinos will be found to be mistaken within 3 months. ( 46% confidence; 46 wagers; 39 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-12-22; judged wrong by muflax on 2011-12-22.
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Michael House will reply within a week. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-22; known on 2011-09-29; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-29.
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By 2020, a former US government official will come forward to say that they were involved in planning the 9/11 attacks. ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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In ten years, people will be able to regenerate lost or damaged teeth for under $5k/tooth (2011 USD, inflation-adjusted). ( 48% confidence; 14 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by papermachine on 2011-09-20; known on 2021-09-16; judged wrong by papermachine on 2021-09-16.
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Magick qua magick works AND hinges on the intersection between quantum physics and decision theory. ( 4% confidence; 23 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-14; known on 2051-09-15; judged unknown by Arets Paeglis on 2011-10-10.
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Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.
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A professional athlete will voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, by 2021 ( 29% confidence; 21 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2021-09-10; judged wrong by muflax on 2021-09-10.
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A professional athlete will not voluntarily amputate their legs to use prosthetics like Oscar Pistorius, before 2041. ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-11; known on 2041-01-01.
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There will be a major terrorist attack (>= 60 deaths) between 2011-09-10 20:00 UTC and 2011-09-12 06:00 UTC anywhere in the world except Afghanistan, Pakistan, or Iraq. ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12.
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Another episode of Firefly featuring most of the original cast (whether real or emulated or CGI) will be made before 2052 ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2052-01-01.
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I will find and contact the real recipient of a Fedex package that was incorrectly delivered to my address ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10; known on 2011-09-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-11.
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I will fix the bug that caused the broken HTML in http://predictionbook.com/predictions/2856 today ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-10; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-10.
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My email to Rafaela Hillerbrand <rafaela.hillerbrand@rwth-aachen.de> will bounce or otherwise be end in an error. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2011-09-16; judged wrong by gwern on 2011-09-17.
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GJP: the Saudi monarchy continue to rule Saudi Arabia as of March 1, 2012 ( 93% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-06; known on 2012-03-01; judged right by gwern on 2012-03-01.
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Before the year 2300, there will be a Chabad on Mars. ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-05; known on 2300-01-01.
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No nuclear weapon will be used for the remainder of this decade. (Does not count tests) ( 82% confidence; 32 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-04; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.
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By 2018, an editorial in either the New York Times or the Wall Street Journal will call for an investigation into whether the 9/11 Truth movement's accusations are correct. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by muflax on 2018-01-01.
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By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.
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I will finish the game Limbo before 2013-01-01 UTC ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-01; known on 2013-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2013-01-01.