Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 100% | 50% | 100% | 80% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 11 |
Displaying all predictions made by lukas. Filter by:
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A nuclear disaster equal to or worse than Fukushima will happen this year. ( 3% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by hedges on 2013-04-04; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2013-12-31.
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The Euro will not be dead by 2016 ( 94% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by challquist on 2013-04-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Emanuel Rylke will not get a job within the next 2 years ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lukas on 2012-05-24; known on 2014-05-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2014-01-24.
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There'll be no iPad Mini in 2012 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-10; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-10-23.
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Google self driving car will get in an accident (involving human injury or property damage > $2k) before end of 2018. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-08; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by elecnix on 2022-12-10.
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3D technologies (like 3D TV channels) will become widespread by the year 2013. Football matches will be screened in 3D as well. ( 48% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Selector on 2012-04-26; known on 2013-01-31; judged wrong by alexyakushev on 2013-02-01.
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I will still learn French by the end of the year. ( 97% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-04-25; known on 2012-12-31; judged right by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-12-31.
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The United States, Canada, and Mexico will form the North American Union in August 2020. ( 4% confidence; 22 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2020-08-30; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-30.
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“The world's first lunar tourist” by 2016 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2016-01-01.
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Nuclear power plants will no longer operate by the year 2020. ( 12% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Mel Eclarinal on 2011-03-16; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2020-01-01.
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“I predict Google will be the biggest and most important company in the world in 5-8 years.” —Jason Kottke ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-03; known on 2017-08-07; judged wrong by gwern on 2017-08-07.
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“By 2050 the tallest free or non-free standing structure in the world will reach over 10 kilometers in height.” ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2050-01-01.