Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 100% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 5 |
Displaying all predictions made by Tanner. Filter by:
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President Obama will be impeached by the House of Representatives. ( 8% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Taymon on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-01-20.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Apple's stock price will go above $120 before January 1, 2017. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by mortehu on 2016-12-30.
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Apple's stock price will go above $110 before February 1, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Tapetum-Lucidum on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-02-02; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-02.
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Bernie Sanders to win the Democratic nomination. ( 18% confidence; 66 wagers; 38 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-02; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-10.
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Apple is going to discontinue iPod touch in 3 years ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2017-08-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-04.
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“Google's self-driving cars will be available [for purchase at a reasonable price to buy and drive legally] for everyone [the same market that can currently afford to buy a car] within five years” – Sergey Brin ( 16% confidence; 32 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Qiaochu on 2012-10-14; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by Tanner on 2017-09-26.