Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11751 | 16422 | 16888 | 17550 | 31268 | 8024 | 101903 |
Judged Predictions
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NFL: Miami Dolphins will beat Buffalo Bills in Week 11 of the 2012 Season ( 80% confidence )
Created by dwibby on 2012-11-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by dwibby on 2012-11-16.
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My application for Y Combinator will be good enough to get me an interview. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ggreer on 2012-11-03; known on 2013-11-16; judged wrong by ggreer on 2012-11-16.
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Nobody will answer my SO question (http://stackoverflow.com/q/13387898/560791) with an answer that fixes the problem (i.e., allows the agent to run the main logic) within 48 hours. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2012-11-14; known on 2012-11-16; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-15.
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I'll organize another LW-meetup this year. ( 70% confidence )
Created by wallowinmaya on 2012-05-16; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by wallowinmaya on 2012-11-15.
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'We are 100% certain that governments will start banning bitcoins in the next 12 to 18 months.' —Jason Calacanis ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-16; known on 2012-11-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-15.
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Wang Yang will not be appointed to the Politburo Standing Committee of the Communist Party of China. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Li Keqiang will be appointed the next Premier of the State Council of China. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Xi Jinping will be apppointed the next chairman of the Communist Party of China. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by abc123456 on 2012-11-01; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by abc123456 on 2012-11-15.
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Publish article on AIXI ( 80% confidence )
Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-20; judged right by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-14.
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get up before 11 tomorrow ( 70% confidence )
Created by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-14; judged right by The_sacred_Sponge on 2012-11-14.
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At least two first-term Republican congressmen/congresswomen elected in 2010 will be defeated by their Democratic rivals in 2012. ( 86% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-14.
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I will leave before 1am tonight ( 68% confidence )
Created by NemoSpecific on 2012-11-13; known on 2012-11-13; judged right by NemoSpecific on 2012-11-13.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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If Ron Paul runs as a third party candidate in the 2012 presidential election, then he will receive greater than 10% of the popular vote. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by ChristianKl on 2012-11-29.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Mathematical Thinking'. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-06; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Introduction to Logic'. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-12; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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I will receive a certificate of completion for 'Learn to Program: The Fundamentals'. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-09-30; known on 2012-11-13; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-11-13.
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Gene Munster: Apple will sell 1-1.5 million iPad Minis this weekend (compared with 3 million 3rd Gen iPads sold in its launch weekend in March). ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-02; known on 2012-11-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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In 2012, Democrats will make gains in both the House and Senate, but will fail to wrest control of the Senate from the GOP. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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Mike D'Antoni is more likely to be the Lakers coach than Phil Jackson in 2012 NBA season ( 55% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2013-06-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12.
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Tori Dykes' tweet (https://twitter.com/toridykes/status/266032621690171392) will not reach 2,000 RTs by Sunday. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by alecbrooks on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-11; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-11-11.
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No new seats in Congress for Third Party or Independent candidates in 2012. ( 85% confidence; 6 wagers; 52 comments )
Created by smijer on 2012-01-10; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by smijer on 2012-11-10.
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“Newt Gingrich to be Republican Presidential Nominee in 2012.” -Intrade ( 18% confidence; 12 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-28; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by Qiaochu on 2012-11-10.
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Mike Brown will be fired as coach of Lakers before 2014 NBA season ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-10; known on 2014-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09.
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NFL: The Colts will beat the Jaguars on Nov 8 by more than 3 (the line). ( 59% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09; known on 2012-11-09; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-09.
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GJP: September 2011 Questions: #1002: Who will be inaugurated as President of Russia in 2012? (a) Medvedev ( 50% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2012-12-30; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Obama will win election ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lepido on 2012-09-08; known on 2012-12-06; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Gabby Giffords (the congresswoman who was shot in 2011) will be attacked in a political ad in 2012 ( 35% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-26; known on 2012-12-31; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Akin to get at least 40% of the vote in the Missouri election (conditional on him not dropping out). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-08-23; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Mitt Romney will win the popular vote in the 2012 US election ( 37% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-10; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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Mitt Romney will change his position to the GOP platform of banning all abortion even in the case of incest and rape. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-22; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-08.
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At least one presidential debate of 2012 will include a question about “anti-capitalism”. ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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Stewart Alexis Alexander, of the Socialist Party USA, will receive less than 1% of the popular vote in the 2012 presidential election. ( 91% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2011-11-10; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-08.
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Dexter season 7: I will call one major twist in the final episode of the season halfway through. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by muflax on 2011-12-19; known on 2012-12-19; judged wrong by muflax on 2012-11-07.
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LSD microdosing experiment: pair 3: placebo then active? ( 60% confidence )
Created by gwern on 2012-11-07; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.
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A third-party or independent candidate running to the right of the Republican nominee will garner at least 1% of the vote in at least one state in the 2012 U.S. presidential election. ( 54% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-12; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Stock market will not crash before the next US presidential elections ( 94% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ufo42 on 2012-05-28; known on 2012-11-08; judged right by gwern on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will be reelected. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by DetroitDan on 2012-04-24; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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In 2012, Obama will lose only one state that he won in 2008. ( 40% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-09-10; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Obama will be re-elected on the 2012 presidential election. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gusl on 2012-10-26; known on 2012-11-15; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Yu Darvish will have a good year (>150 innings, <4 ERA) ( 67% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2012-11-16; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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President Obama will win the Presidential election in 2012. ( 70% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2012-11-11; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Ron Paul will win the electoral vote in the 2012 U.S. Presidential election ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-08-04; known on 2012-11-08; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Barack Obama will be re-elected President of the United States of America ( 77% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by georgesdelatour on 2012-01-01; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Third-party candidates will take at least 15% of the popular votes in the 2012 US presidential election. ( 26% confidence; 16 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2011-10-09; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by RandomThinker on 2012-11-07.
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Mitt Romney will be the next President of the United States. He will win the Republican nomination and win the general election in 2012. ( 31% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by capcuervo on 2011-11-26; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson ( 97% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Republican 2012 nominee not Ron Paul or Gary Johnson; Tea Party splits between Republican & Libertarian party; Obama elected ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-01-02; known on 2012-11-07; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2012-11-07.
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Neither the Republican Candidate for President nor the Democratic Candidate for President will win Arizona in 2012. ( 1% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-06-13; known on 2012-12-01; judged wrong by Sarokrae on 2012-11-07.