Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 67% | 67% | 82% | 63% | 82% | 100% | |
Sample Size | 6 | 12 | 11 | 8 | 17 | 3 | 57 |
Displaying all predictions made by Jenson. Filter by:
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HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.
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0 faithless electors ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-19.
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Conditional on a leadership election where Corbyn is not on the ballot, Labour splits into two parties ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-13; known on 2020-12-31.
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Trump's running mate is Nigel Farrage ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-14; known on 2016-07-22; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-15.
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Trump will use donated money to pay off any portion of the loans he has made to his primary campaign ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-05; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-16.
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A motion to unbind delegates will be voted on by the full Republican convention ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-07; known on 2016-07-19; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-07-16.
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Trump's polling relative to Clinton's will improve if/when they have a debate. ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by Bound_Up on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-10-05; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-10-05.
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Trump choice for VP is NOT Fallin, Kasich, Carson, Rubio, Corker, Sondoval, Pence, Sessions, Love, Gingrich, himself, or nobody. ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jenson on 2016-07-06; known on 2016-07-21; judged wrong by Jenson on 2016-07-15.
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Hillary Clinton wins the presidential election 2016 ( 64% confidence; 26 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-11-09.
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Trump wins the presidential election 2016 ( 34% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by qznc on 2016-07-04; known on 2016-11-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.
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Michael Gove will be the next leader of the Conservative party ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2016-07-01; known on 2016-09-20; judged wrong by splorridge on 2016-07-07.
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Conditional on Bill O'Reilly's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having Narcissistic Personality Disorder [NPD]. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2016-07-01; known on 2066-07-01.
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Scotland holds another independence referendum in the next 5 years. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-06-27; known on 2021-01-16; judged wrong by davatk on 2021-01-16.
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The UK will hold a second EU referendum before it officially is no longer part of the EU ( 26% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jasticE on 2016-06-25; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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David Cameron will not formally invoke Article 50 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ejlflop on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-11-01; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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Trump VP pick is Mike Pence ( 38% confidence; 10 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-25; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Sanders endorses Clinton before the democratic convention ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2016-06-24; known on 2016-07-25; judged right by Jenson on 2016-07-14.
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Kasich is Trump's VP pick ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2016-05-06; known on 2016-08-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Sanders will win the Democratic nomination ( 21% confidence; 29 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by LawrenceNewport on 2016-02-26; known on 2016-06-14; judged wrong by LawrenceNewport on 2016-06-14.
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Donald Trump's pick for VP will be Ivanka Trump. (No nomination needed; withdrawn if Trump does not pick.) ( 1% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-01; known on 2016-07-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2016-07-14.
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Banning of incandescent light bulbs globally by 2022.Incandescent lightbulbs will not be bought, manufactured or sold legally. ( 10% confidence; 17 wagers; 17 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2022-12-25.
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Democrats take the Senate in 2016. ( 48% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-01-28; known on 2017-03-01; judged wrong by lalaithion on 2016-12-01.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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The United Kingdom's referendum will vote to stay in the European Union. ( 61% confidence; 40 wagers; 15 comments )
Created by sdr on 2015-06-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2016-06-24.
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HPMoR: Quirrell supports Harry's resolution to bring back Hermione. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by player_03 on 2014-06-22; known on 2015-06-22.
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HPMOR: The ritual Quirrell mentions in chapter 74 using a rope that has hanged a man and a sword that has killed a woman will be revealed to create a dementor when cast. ( 56% confidence; 19 wagers; 18 comments )
Created by RobertLumley on 2012-09-17; known on 2016-01-02; judged right by Osuniev on 2015-03-28.
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The Queen will formally abdicate this year ( 3% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-18; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2016-01-05.
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There will be fewer than 20 wagers on this prediction two weeks from today. ( 70% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-18; known on 2014-07-01; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-07-01.
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The 2016 Olympics will be in Rio ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2014-05-29; known on 2016-08-29; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-06.
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HP MOR: Quirrell was responsible for releasing the troll, but a third party redirected it to Hermione ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by solipsist on 2014-05-26; known on 2015-12-31; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.
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Meat-eaters will outnumber all other categories combined (vegan, vegertarian, meat-reducer, near vegetarian) in effective-altruist survey. http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-01; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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Global poverty will be the most common response to the effective-altruist survey question “Which of the following causes do you think you should devote resources to?” http://lesswrong.com/lw/k60/2014_survey_of_effective_altruists/ ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Patrick Brinich-Langlois on 2014-05-01; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HPMOR: final chapter to be published before Jan 1st of 2015 ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sdr on 2014-01-24; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sdr on 2015-01-04.
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HPMoR will be fully completed by chapter 111. (That is to say, it will have no more than 111 chapters, including all the remaining arcs, and all epilogues.) ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by ygert on 2014-01-15; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-03-14.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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[HPMOR] Dumbledore did not kill (intentionally or unintentionally) Hermione. ( 79% confidence; 22 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-08-16; known on 2014-07-02; judged right by linkhyrule5 on 2015-02-20.
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HPMOR : The Dark Lord that Harry will vanquish is not Quirrelmort but Death itself. (http://lesswrong.com/lw/b7s/harry_potter_and_the_methods_of_rationality/841h) ( 55% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Osuniev on 2013-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-03-24.
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HP MoR: Quirinus Quirrell is actually Nymphadora Tonks. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ygert on 2013-07-25; known on 2014-07-25; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.
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HP MoR: At the end of the story Hermione comes back as an alicorn princess ( 18% confidence; 21 wagers; 23 comments )
Created by Benja on 2013-07-06; known on 2014-07-06; judged right by Benja on 2015-03-15.
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Polyamory will have legal status in the USA similar to 2013's gay marriage by 2035. ( 19% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2013-06-27; known on 2035-12-31.
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Average global temperature for 2013 to be higher than for 2012. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-13; known on 2014-01-15; judged right by simplicio on 2014-01-15.
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Zeo Inc will be sold, taken private, dissolve or go bankrupt in 2013. ( 75% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged right by gwern on 2014-01-01.
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Detection of free oxygen on an exoplanet by end of the year. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2013-03-12; known on 2014-01-01; judged wrong by phreeza on 2014-01-01.
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MetaMed to face legal challenges from regulators by 2016 (S.T. Rev via Twitter). ( 14% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-03-05; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2015-09-02.
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US minimum wage to be $9 (nominal) or greater by 2015. ( 61% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-01.
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“Glasses” computing devices (peripheral or standalone – example: Google Glasses) to have sales of at least 100 million units per year by 2018. ( 50% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by ygert on 2020-05-15.
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Republican presidential candidate in 2016 to be generally perceived as immigration-friendly (described as such by a major news source). ( 30% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by elephantower on 2016-08-05.
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USA to initiate trade sanctions or legal action against China for cyber-espionage by 2016. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-10.
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USA to begin phase-out of pennies by start of 2016. ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-02-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.
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On The Office (US), the Scranton Strangler will be revealed during the final season to be a character we have seen before on the show. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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Toby will be revealed as the Scranton Strangler in the final season of The Office (US). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by tormey on 2013-02-13; known on 2013-05-17; judged wrong by ShIxtan on 2013-06-30.
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Gangnam Style will still be on the Billboard Youtube list by April 1, 2013 ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-08; known on 2013-04-01; judged right by RandomThinker on 2013-04-08.
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HPMoR: Quirrell killed the original Voldemort and took his position. ( 4% confidence; 19 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-07-31; known on 2014-07-31; judged wrong by player_03 on 2015-03-16.
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'NASA to announce discovery of extraterrestrial life before midnight ET 31 Dec 2013' —Intrade ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-08-13; known on 2013-12-31; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-12-31.
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Bush will commit suicide by the next 3 years. ( 4% confidence; 21 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by puya on 2011-04-06; known on 2014-08-09; judged wrong by clemux on 2014-08-09.