Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 44% | 47% | 84% | 67% | 88% | 0% | |
Sample Size | 16 | 17 | 25 | 30 | 41 | 0 | 129 |
Displaying all predictions made by Morpheus. Filter by:
-
Are large language models the final paradigm before AGI? (not sure about the best way to operationalize this question yet.) ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2070-01-01.
-
By 2050, will there be an extension to the way we understand reality similar to the one from probability to quantum mechanics? ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2050-01-01.
-
Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
-
Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.
-
I will have made 70 new Anki cards by next Tuesday ( 10% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-06-15; known on 2021-06-22; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-06-22.
-
Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.
-
I will break my 251 day Anki review streak within my lifetime. (Wait… who is going to resolve this question?) ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2221-04-25.
-
I will keep my current Anki streak for another 100 days. ( 3% confidence )
Created by Morpheus on 2021-04-25; known on 2021-07-27; judged wrong by Morpheus on 2021-05-02.
-
Germany's Greens choose Robert Habeck as chancellor candidate before May ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-05-01; judged wrong by qznc on 2021-05-01.
-
There will be more than 5 Metaculus domains on 14 Jan 2020 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-08-14; known on 2020-01-14; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2020-01-25.
-
Queen Elizabeth II will abdicate before her death. ( 6% confidence; 33 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2017-03-17; known on 2037-03-17; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-09-08.